Thank you, and good morning to everybody. We hope you're all well, and we welcome all of you to our conference call this morning. The underlying presentation for the call has been published this morning on our webpage. Today, we released a statement for the first six months of financial year 2024-2025 . We're going to present the highlights of this period and revisit our full year group earnings guidance for business year 2024-2025 , that has been changed on September 16. Following the call, we're going to answer your questions. The recording of this call will be available on our homepage shortly after the call. Now, let me hand over to Südzucker CFO, Dr. Stephan Meeder.
Thank you, Nikolai. Ladies and gentlemen, also warm welcome from my side, and thank you all for your interest showing in Südzucker. As mentioned by Nikolai, we would like to give you today a brief overview about the business performance in the first six months of financial year 2024-2025, and give you details about the confirmed earnings guidance for this fiscal year 2024-2025. Let me start, please, with the presentation on page five. Here you can find the highlights of the six months results. And as also already indicated by Nikolai, and indicated March 10, where we had an MAR, July 10, and stated on September 16, Q2 performance was not able to match the very strong previous year's numbers. Where do we stand at half year stage?
You can see, group revenues came in on previous year's level at EUR 5.1 billion, but group EBITDA was significantly down by 43% to EUR 420 million, and group operating result, as you can see, was down by 55% to EUR 269 million. Cash flow decreased to EUR 343 million, and net financial debt at end of August 2024 came in EUR 60 million above previous prior- year's level, and EUR 164 million against end of fiscal year 2023- 2024, which is end of February. So now let's have a look into the segmental performance on page six. Here you can see overall that the group revenues came in on previous year's level.
Revenues declined in the Special Products, CropEnergies, and Starch segments, but increased, which is positive, in the Fruit and Sugar segments. The group operating result decrease was driven by the Sugar, CropEnergies, and Starch segments, while the Special Products and Fruits segments showed an increase. Let's now move to segment sugar on page eight, and go look into more details on the developments in the Sugar segment. First of all, let me please revisit the view on the global sugar market, as the main drivers here have an impact on the European prices. It's always important to start with a worldwide look on sugar balances, and then have a more detailed look on the European level.
Here on this slide, you can see that in the latest update in September 2024, as for the sugar marketing year 2023-2024 , S&P Global, as one of the leading consultancies, reports a surplus of 5.2 million tons. The stock-to-use ratio stays low at about 38%. For the sugar marketing year 2024-2025 , S&P Global expects another surplus of about 4 million tons. So as a consequence, the stock-to-use ratio is increased and expected to reach 40%. So this surplus situation has an increasingly negative impact on the sugar prices. So based on this worldwide look, have more detailed look what happened on the EU level, you will find this on page 9.
Following the trends on the world market, you can see on the slide that there's a strong decrease in the prices, particularly if you have a look on spot prices, and also the red line on the EU reporting, which goes down with a certain delay. What happened in this period? We have seen that the EU sowing and growing conditions for beet have been favorable so far, and since Q1, there have been increasing indications that this will lead to a significantly larger harvest and corresponding sugar production than originally expected. That was one aspect. The other aspect is that in combination with the sluggish sugar sales so far this year, this has led to a continued high sugar inventories within the EU, although EU sugar exports have occurred in parallel.
And we have seen this from the beginning of the year, that there is an anticipated decline in prices, but this has strongly intensified further, as shown in the graph in recent weeks and months. Additionally, and this is also important starting point, where this deterioration in prices happened, and we still burdened from the prices. There are still imports from Ukraine as from January 2025 onwards. As those imports from Ukraine have had a negative impact on prices, and there might come, as of 2025, additional imports. It is important to review the situation on Ukraine. What happened with the Ukraine situation? Remember that the EU had decided to suspend customs duties and quantitative restrictions on sugar imports from Ukraine since June 2022.
As a result, about 500,000 tons were imported into the EU in the calendar year 2023. To just make a comparison for this 500,000 tons that were imported, if we take the pre-war situation from the Ukraine into the EU, for example, in the year 2021, only came 18,000 tons. This is a significant increase that has happened in 2023, and this has burdened on the price situation in Europe. Recently, that means on June 6, 2024, the EU has introduced a new safeguard mechanism to limit duty-free sugar imports from Ukraine.
So per se, and you see, safeguard mechanism is positive, but nevertheless, this would lead or this limitation is at around 263,000 tons for the 2024 calendar year, and to around 109,000 tons for the first five months of two 2025 . This having said, we have to state that, yes, on the one side, Ukrainian import into the EU have shrunk, but they are still. They had come in 2024, and we have to be prepared that an additional volume of 100,000 tons, approximately, might come in the first month of 2025 . And these effects or these imports also have a negative impact on the price situation. So let's move on with the revenues in the Sugar segment.
You can see that revenues in the Sugar segment have increased moderately. A significant growth in sales volumes was offset by progressively declining prices, as I've just explained in the second quarter of 2024-2025, and this price decline was due to both increasingly falling prices in the EU, as just explained in the second quarter of 2024-2025, and significantly higher exports from the EU to the world market. When it comes to operating results, here, the Sugar segment shows a strong decline, and this sharp decline in results is mainly due to the further substantial rises in production costs in the 2023 campaign, and the increasingly lower prices in the EU second quarter. Let's continue with the segment Special Products on page 11.
So we come to Special Products, and as a reminder, this segment comprises Freiberger, BENEO, and the PortionPack Group. Revenues in these three divisions decreased moderately, mainly due to lower volumes and prices. When it comes to the operating result for the special product segment, the operating results increased significantly. This significant overall increase in the segment was mainly driven by higher margins, so this is positive, and partly higher sales volumes. When it comes to the cost side, we see here varying trends, so raw material costs showed a varying trend in the divisions. In some cases, we had rising or remaining at the same or previous year's level. Let's have a look what happened in the third segment. It's CropEnergies on page 12. Also, let's start with a look on the revenue side.
The revenues in the segment Crop Energies were significantly down. The decrease is due to significantly lower prices for ethanol, as well as for food and animal feed products. When it comes to the volume side, here, this is positive. The volumes have increased. This is compared to previous year's lower level, where we were affected by scheduled maintenance. In line with the revenue trend, operating result was significantly lower than in previous year, and the main reason for this was, like in the Sugar segment, lower prices in here for renewable ethanol, and they were significantly lower than in the previous year. Positively on operating results has been the lower net raw material and energy costs, as well as the higher sales volumes, but in total, they have not been able to compensate for the negative impact of falling prices.
Just to give you an indication, what happened on the price side, when we look at the market prices for ethanol, that means for fuel ethanol, in the first six months, this average price was at EUR 698 per cubic meter, and this compares to EUR 741 per cubic meter in the period half year 2023- 2024. Spot in September, there you see also the decrease. The average ethanol price in September on the market was at EUR 630 per cubic meter, against EUR 786 in September 2023. Based on that, let's move to the Starch segment.
And the Starch segment also comprises a part of ethanol sales, so the same effect that I just explained for CropEnergies are also valid for the Starch segment. But let's start on page 13, with a look on the revenues. Here you can see that revenues in the Starch segment declined significantly. And this downturn was the result of, as I just explained, significantly lower prices for the products in the Starch segment, as well as for byproducts and ethanol. In contrast, this positive sales volumes developed positively and increased in the reporting period, half year 2024. When it comes to operating results, this was also significantly down, and the significant fall in prices, as just explained, could not be fully offset by lower raw material and energy costs and significant volume drop.
Last but not least, let's move to the Fruit segment. You will find that on page fourteen, and also as a reminder here, the Fruit segment comprises the fruit preparations divisions and the fruit juice concentrate divisions. When it comes to the revenues in the Fruit segment, they have showed a moderate increase, so this is positive and this is also something that we have already discussed also in the past. It is a well-balanced portfolio that we have here in Südzucker Group. So some, as you have seen in the past, that there are if there are segments with the negative impacts, we also have segments which show a positive development.
Here, for example, in this case, it's the Fruit segment, where the revenues show the moderate increase, in particular, thanks to higher sales volumes of both fruit preparations and fruit juice concentrates. When it comes to operating results, this came in significantly above prior- years' level, which is positive. The earnings contribution from fruit preparations improved, following a slight increase in sales volumes with moderately higher margins. On the fruit juice concentrate side here, in contrast, the contribution margins to earnings fell due to moderately lower margins, despite higher sales volumes. After this look on the five segments, let's turn to the main point in the profit and loss statement. You will find this on the pages 16 and 17. So in the P&L section, let's start with the results from restructuring and special items.
You can see positively that had amounted to EUR 13 million positive, and this is primarily due from the Special Products segment in relation to the sale of the U.S. dressing and sauce business, which is non-core to the U.S. pizza business. So, these assets or this business have been sold to at EUR 65 million, as you can see in the cash flow statement, and brought in total a EUR 17 million gain on disposal before tax. Looking at the financial result, what can we see here? So the financial result in the first six months includes net interest result and a result of minus EUR 49 million, and other financial result of minus EUR 2 million. So, there are two aspects for the financial result, for the interest result.
On the one side, we have higher interest expense resulted from higher average interest rates of around 3.4%. And on the other side, the average net financial debt of about EUR 2 billion was down by about EUR 120 million for this period, but resulted then in combination to it to higher interest expense. Let's continue on page 17. Here we start with taxes. You can see that taxes on income came in at EUR 74 million, after EUR 115 million in the same period of last year, with an increase of the underlying tax rate to 31%. If you have a look on the prior- year's taxes, you see a 22%, which is quite low.
On average, or also going forward, our assumption for average tax rate is in the area of 25%, so this year slightly higher, last year slightly lower. The prior- year tax rate was supported by higher profits in the Sugar segment that were partially tax-free due to non-capitalized losses carried forward from the past. When it comes to earnings per share, you can see that they came in at EUR 0.61, against EUR 1.69 in the previous year's period. After P&L, let's have a look on the cash flow, working capital, and investment developments. You will find this on page 19. Starting with cash flow, following the earning situation, as just explained, also cash flow decreased. So cash flow decreased, you'll find on the right-hand side of the graph.
So first quarter, second quarter, and then the first half, you can see that cash flow came in at EUR 343 million . The cash flow to net debt ratio was down to 6.7% against 11.7% in 2023, 2024. Working capital increased by EUR 31 million , and investments in fixed assets reached EUR 268 million , against EUR 199 million in the last year, but in line with expectations for the full year, where we have indicated to be on the investment side approximately on previous year's level for the twelve-month period. Let's have a look at the balance sheet. You will find that on page 21. Starting with net financial debt.
So net financial debt at the end of August 2024 was EUR 2 billion, and the cash inflow from operating activities amounted to EUR 291 million, and this includes, in particular, the cash flow of EUR 300.3 million, as just evoked, and an increase in working capital with a cash outflow of EUR 31 million. When it comes to the financing of investment in fixed assets and financial assets, they were totaling to EUR 275 million, and profit distributions that we did in July amounted at EUR 242 million. So all in all-...
This resulted in an increase in net financial debt of EUR 164 million from February 2, 2024, end of February 2024, which is the end of the business year, to about EUR 2 billion at August 31, 2024. That means after six months. Look at the equity ratio, this is at 47%, which is lower compared to the previous year, but this is still a very solid level. So let me now turn to the outlook. You will find the outlook on the pages 23 to 25. Ladies and gentlemen, before we go into the details of the outlook, please allow me to give you some general remarks as a framework.
As indicated at the beginning of this conference call, we said that in September 16, we have announced an MAR in the notification, and with this MAR notification, September 16, we have already adjusted our full year guidance for the first time in this financial year. It was, yes, a substantial correction that adds to the already anticipated earnings reduction shown in the first guidance back in April. What we have to state, or what we have seen, is that the magnitude and the speed of the earnings situation lead us to respond immediately with extensive measures and investigations to further measures to be taken or initiated. We take this very serious, and we look into everything.
These measures that we will have to take or initiate, they include measures for the direct impact on earnings as early as the current year, but also we have to look in mid-term and long-term measures. And these measures are to improve the cash situation for the current business year, and also on the cost side. And also, that we have already internally an idea about the specific figures, so we look into everything for several items. So this is on the cash side and on the cost side. Please note that at this point of time, we will not be going into detail at the numbers because we are here at an early stage. But as I said, please be assured that we look into everything and take this very seriously.
So now let's have a look on the outlook as of today. You can find this on page 23. This is our confirmed guidance for the financial year. Our group guidance for financial year 2024 has been changed on September 16, and we confirm this as of today, and this is the first change since the original publications of the outlook in April 15 this year. Now we expect the group revenues to come in between EUR 9.5 billion and EUR 9.9 billion. You'll find this in the middle down part of the graph, after EUR 10.3 billion in 2023/2024 financial year. When it comes to group operating results, we expect a range between EUR 175 million and EUR 275 million .
Looking into the segments, now, for the Sugar segment, other than foreseen so far, we foresee a loss situation, which is, as I just stated, serious. For the Sugar segment, we expect an earnings range between minus EUR 150 million and minus EUR 50 million . This compares to EUR 558 million positive last year. In the Special Products segment, operating income is expected to come in moderately below previous year's level. For CropEnergies, we foresee unchanged operating result in range of EUR 20 million-EUR 60 million . When it comes to the Starch segment, here we should see a significantly lower result, and for the Fruit segment, we should see an operating result on previous years' level.
All in all, totaling to a range for the Südzucker Group operating profit between EUR 175 million and EUR 275 million . On the next two pages, you will find the other key figures for the outlook, starting with EBITDA. So following operating profit plus depreciations, we see a group EBITDA in the range of EUR 550 million-EUR 650 million . CapEx is expected to be on previous year's level. We will look into this in detail and to monitor what is possible in terms of reduction. But given that there are only a few months to go in the business year, it's we do not expect a significant decrease in CapEx for this year compared to that, by what we have already indicated, which is a CapEx level in the range of previous.
So ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your attention. And now Nikolai and myself, we are happy to take your questions. Thank you so far.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only the handset while asking a question. Anyone with a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from Oliver Schwarz, from Warburg Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my questions. I was a bit late to the call, hence you might have elaborated on that already, so, sorry for that if that's the case. I just wanted to ask about the steep decline in the sugar selling price that basically triggered the respective, down, let's say, downgrade in your guidance, and also is the main culprits for the decline in the sugar profits. What, from your point of view, what exactly triggered this situation? Is that sustainable on the current level, or are we likely to see further declines?
Why has that already had such a big impact on the Q2 figures, given that you have for most of your volumes annual contracts with your customers in place, which basically fixes the price point for the respective volumes? That would be my first question. Second question, if I may, is around the expected tax rate for the current fiscal year. In the first half year, you were able to employ tax loss carry forwards to drive down the tax rate a bit, I think. In the second half year, what we'll see is basically the opposite, that the entities which were probably profit making or at least at a zero result will now become loss making.
That should have a, let's say, a major impact on the tax rate for 2024- 2025. Could you point me to the ballpark of tax rate we are expected to see in the current year? Thank you.
Okay. Oliver, let me start with your question on the sugar prices. Indeed, I elaborated that in our details, because it's the key element for the guidance deterioration and the H1 results. So you will find this on the pages where we started. We have to start with the world market, and there's a pressure from the world market being that the world market, over the last two years, has been in a surplus situation. So this weighs on the overall supply and demand situation. This has an impact on the European level. On the European level, we had an addition to this world market price, world production consumption situation.
We had intensified deterioration of prices given the increased harvest expectations that has been shown up recently, see, and this situation of a surplus situation. So this is the main effect, which has intensified over the last two weeks, and this led to the negative outlook correction that we have just explained. When it comes to the tax rate, our general tax rate expectation is 25%. But in this year, we already see a higher tax rate, and so prior tax rate was supported by a very good earnings situation in the Sugar segment, where we could use negative tax carryforward.
And, but for this year, we foresee a tax rate of 32%, but there is an additional risk with the earnings situation. It's too early to fully see what was out after the first months. We see already an increased tax rate in H1 at 32%.
Perhaps I may sneak in and add on to that. I fully agree with you that the market expectations regarding the sugar world market sugar price, no, the world market sugar volumes have increased due to better harvest. However, over the last, let's say, weeks, for example, the sugar price development basically turned a corner, and the world market price was up again without any, let's say, apart from Brazil, without any major items there. And still the European sugar prices is, as far as I know, still on the decline.
And also, if I look on the graph that you provided in the presentation on slide nine, there's clearly a disconnect between the European sugar price and also the world sugar price, if you look at the graphs. And now it seems the European sugar price, at least the spot price, already managed to undershoot the international sugar price, which basically means that exports become more attractive for European players, at least if transportation costs are not prohibitive.
And then my question was more, not only to how we came to this situation, but more to if this situation currently is sustainable at this price level, if we are likely to see a bottoming out the European sugar prices, or if this decline might continue until the gap of the transport costs between the international sugar price and the European sugar price is basically accounted for, and we'll see, let's say, a flat line from there on. That would be.
Yes.
My last question then. Thank you.
Yeah, it is, Oliver. It is complex, and things are not directly reacting. You are right, the world market prices rallied in September. This was due to news in Brazil with fires impacting the Brazilian sugarcane harvest and production assumptions. But this does not necessarily directly link to the European prices. So as I said, all in all, world markets, supply and demand have an impact on the European prices, but this does not necessarily mean that every short-term effect weighs directly into Europe. But Nikolai can also add on that.
We see a downward trend on the prices, and there should be soon a floor, yeah, because this price situation now, as you can see on page nine, that the spot prices have already reached the world market prices, so this there should be a floor to come. Yeah, Nikolai, but this should be.
Yeah, maybe we just want to work toward this, be aware that when you look at the chart, the chart is not telling you the whole truth about what's going on in the European market, because, as you know, we have a heterogeneous environment in Europe. There are surplus markets, there are deficit markets, so you see a blend price there. But we see in our accounts, and we are sure that that's also to be seen in the market, that pricing has also to be taken into account below those levels that you can see on the chart.
So that tells you that the volume development in Europe currently is currently much more important than the world market development, but we can certainly see some bottoming out here that you also mentioned. So hopefully this is going to help us going forward. But the situation is very strongly dependent on the volume situation and the inventory situation in the European market, which Stephan has talked about, that has been not very favorable in the last twenty-four months. So filling up there. And also you can see in the second quarter results that the sell-through out of our inventory is better than last year.
It has to be better than last year because our harvesting campaign was higher last year, but it is below what we would have expected comparing the campaign volume of last year. So this is also true for the whole market. And the last point here is that don't forget that you can see only half of the truth here, not half, but let's say, part of the truth on the chart because on our behalf, but also on the market's behalf, we are still selling and exporting sugar. So it's something that has also been taken into account here.
Oliver, last one. On the tax rate, to be fully clear there, so our midterm guidance for the tax rate is 25%. We have seen last year's lower tax rate due to the positive effect of negative tax carry losses carried forward that we could utilize. So in this first six months, we are already above this midterm guidance of 25%, at 31%.
For sure, there is an additional risk, at the end of the financial year, if we have the full picture of the midterm outlook to be done. This is too early to say, but if there were additional risks to be taken into account for the long-term planning of the Sugar segment, there is a risk of additional taxes with the positive tax losses carried forward activated last year. So, but this is, as of today, too early to say, but there is also a risk that the tax rate might increase for the full year.
Got that. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Hartmut Moers from Matelan. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. I would like to follow up on the Sugar segment. I mean, all your comments are basically on a year-on-year comparison, but when looking at the results of the Sugar segment on a quarter-by-quarter basis, so Q2 versus Q1, we find that you've basically EUR 18 million lower sales and EUR 41 million lower EBITDA, so that indicates that the effect from Q1 to Q2 can not only just be a price effect. There must also be a significant cost component, and therefore, the significant reduction in the operating result or in the EBITDA. Could you shed a bit of light into what happened there?
Are we looking at depreciation of working capital, or are we looking at further cost increase, whatever?
Yeah. Okay, Hartmut, let's start with that. But nevertheless, before going quarter- to- quarter, it's always good to see the full year picture. And if the full year picture, if you compare last year's results, where we came out at EUR 650 million for the entire Sugar segment, and now with the new guidance for the Sugar segment from minus EUR 100 million to minus EUR 50 million, so there is, roughly, EUR 650 million to be explained. So last year, EUR 557 million positive operating profit, so now the new guidance, let's say midpoint, minus EUR 100 million So EUR 650 million to be explained for the full year.
When it comes to the full year, the main effect, let's really only talk about big figures, but if we, as I take the EUR 650 million deterioration in the Sugar segment for the full year, this year, 2024- 2025, we see that there are two main effects and they are almost equal. One is the cost increase from campaign 2023. Yeah, so this was more than EUR 100 per ton cost increase on the production cost side and the lower prices, and those EUR 650 million for the full year, they almost equal those two effects. Yeah, and Q1 to Q2, Nik o?
Yeah, I think the main part is here, very simplistically, the pricing. And as said, we see here, on the one side, the contracts, that's right, but we have also seen that, we have some spot volumes that we have to sell into the market. That's one point. And as I said before, we have exports that come on top, so that was pressuring the overall average price, and that's the main point why, the second quarter, more towards the end of the second quarter, is worse than the first quarter.
Okay. And the second one is, with regards to your guidance, and I respect that you don't want to go into the details, in particular in the Sugar segment. But what I would like to focus on is Special Products and Fruit. I mean, what we have seen is that both segments are, let's say, in the first two quarters, had basically of the original guidance, and you've upped your guidance in fruit, but you have retained your guidance in Special Products. If we would assume that you can maintain the performance in the second half that you had in the first half, Special Products would be flat, and fruit would be up compared to last year.
Can we take this as, let's say, a prudent estimate at a still early stage? Or is it more, that there is something we should be aware of that will lead to a deterioration of your performance in the second half of the year? So how should we look at this?
For the special product segment, as I said, so this comprises Freiberger, BENEO, and the PortionPack Group. So you can assume PortionPack Group is pretty stable. What we see within the Special Product segment, as Freiberger had an exceptional year last year, we see a certain, there is a margin pressure, so we see a reduction in operating profitability for Freiberger, but an increase for the BENEO division. But in all, taking all the three together, we nevertheless see a moderate decline for Special Products. And you're right, within fruits, here we see a stable and an increase of guidance due to better expected performance in H1.
So H1 in Fruit segment came in better than we have forecasted in budget, and this is it will be awaited for the full year, this to be continued, and that's why we see the Fruit segment stable.
Okay, but you are not seeing any specific items why the H2 performance should be worse than the H1 performance in both segments? So there is not, I mean, obviously, you can't 100% predict where the market is going, where the price is going, how volumes are going, what the production does, and so on. But there is nothing planned or nothing you know of that should deteriorate in the second half in both divisions. Is that how I should take it, or is there contribution now?
I mean, we have, as I said, I mean, for the Fruit segment, we have EUR 52 million operating profit after six months. So there is for sure some cost increases that we see. But there's nothing which is not seen, which is not reflected in the guidance.
Mm-hmm. Okay. Thank you very much. That was very helpful.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Karine Elias from Barclays. Please, go ahead.
Hi, thanks for the presentation, and thanks for taking my questions. I had a couple, if possible. If you could just give me some sense of the working capital. If I look at just the outflow, it was a little bit weaker year-on-year in H1, so any guidance for H2, in particular, your thoughts on inventories would be very helpful, and then second, obviously, you've got your next maturity, which is November 2025. You know, any particular plans in terms of, you know, how would you address that? I'm assuming that will be from, mostly from, cash on balance sheet, but would you expect to be coming back to the market in the near- term? Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you for your questions. On the working capital, we expect an inflow of about EUR 200 million on a like-for-like basis. And on top of that, as is also stated, we are planning to start with a real factoring volume that can, let's say, run up to a volume of EUR 400 million. We think that it could end up at the end of the year about EUR 300 million. So the inflow could add up a total to EUR 500 million. So also to answer that potential follow-up question on that one, that would lead then to a lower net financial debt on full year basis, as stated in the presentation.
So on a like-for-like basis, there would be an expected increase of the net financial debt, but including the factoring, we would expect to be below last year's level on net financial debt. And what was the second question again?
I can take this.
Yeah.
Your second question was on the refinancing of the EUR 500 million bond maturity?
Yes, exactly, in November.
Yeah, yeah. Okay, yeah. So we are already in process of discussing with our core banks about refinancing this loan. And the feedback that we get from our banks is positive. They are fully aware of the deterioration in the earnings situation, but nevertheless, from a debt perspective, debt investors' perspective, feedback is quite positive. They say, "Yes, but we always also see this very robust divisions portfolio or product portfolio that we have." So the feedback that we have so far from the banks is very positive. So we are in the process of discussing with the banks how to refinance this bond.
We have not yet decided about the volume and the precise measures, but we await to go into the market in after having disclosed the Q3 figures. That means in January, we assume to go into the market.
That's very helpful. Thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star followed by one. We have a follow-up question from Oliver Schwarz, from Warburg Research. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my additional question. It's, it's just one. I guess most of the fallout that resulted in changing your guidance was the drop in the sugar price, which is also reflected in the current annual contracts with your customers. But that also has an impact on the raw material prices that you will have, especially in regard to the sugar beets farmers, in relation to the sugar beets formula. So raw material prices are basically bound to come down due to the price decline in sugar. When will this start to have an impact, especially taking into consideration the current, let's say, low volume demand, should that continue, when would we see the impact of lower raw material prices to materialize in your earnings?
Yeah, Oliver, we will see already an effect in the current campaign, obviously, because we expect the price to go down. And as you know about the leverage, the price effect will be much more than the raw material effect. So, it will start right away with the start of the campaign. But, having said that, I think it's important. Maybe that has been partially answered also or mentioned before, that due to the fact that we were not able and are not able to sell all of our highly priced and with a high production cost linked sugar from the campaign last year, we will sell also part of that sugar into the new sugar marketing year.
Which is adding to the pressure that we have mentioned and to the loss that we expect in the current year. So the loss in the current year is therefore overstated because of that, runover quota from the sugar that is highly priced from the last campaign year. That's important to know. But it is clear that right with the start of selling down the new sugar into the second half, starting later than expected, the raw material price will drop. And obviously then, depending on the campaign next year, we will see where the raw material price will be there, depending on the selling price.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Alex Sloane from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking the question. This actually was kind of slightly related to that last one, just there. I mean, I guess you've got kind of sugar prices in Europe now locked in for, you know, the second half of the year, but also for most of the first half of next year. I was just wondering if you could quantify, in terms of, you know, the expected, you know, maybe magnitude or ballpark of kind of cost improvement, that we might think about in the first half of next year versus the second half of this year, that's baked into your guidance, if you're able to... I appreciate it's early days, but if you are able to kind of help us with the range there.
Thank you, Alex. That's currently not possible. I think what we can tell you, but to give you some hints here, is that to have also an idea how, let's say, accurate we can be or what can be expected in terms of what is left on the table in terms of risk, is that we have contracted and priced about 80% of the campaign that is expected. So that tells you what is also left on the table in terms of risk in terms of the spot market going forward.
And, the other hint that we can give you is that we assume a price decrease for the sugar marketing year 2024-2025 of more than EUR 150 million, which is, as you know, looking at the leverage, significant, and that also leads to that significant loss. But we cannot give an indication on the cost side.
Okay, thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Nikolai Baltruschat for any closing remarks.
Yes, thank you, everybody, for participating in today's conference call. As always, we welcome additional questions via phone, via email, as you like, following the call. Thank you and goodbye.
Thank you very much.