Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome to the Analyst and Investor Conference Call of Uniper. At our customer's request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If any participants have difficulties hearing the conference, please press star key followed by zero on your telephone for operator assistance. May I now hand over to Stefan Jost, EVP, Group Finance & Investor Relations, who will start the meeting today. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning, dear analysts and investors. Welcome to the Uniper Interim Results Call for the first nine months of fiscal year 2022. Today, I'm sitting here with Tiina Tuomela, our Chief Financial Officer. Today, we would like to take you through the details of our nine-month results, following up on last week's ad hoc announcement, which included preliminary headline numbers. As usual, there will be a Q&A session after the presentation. Let me hand over to Tiina, please.
Thank you very much for your introduction, Stefan. A warm welcome from my side as well, and thank you for participating in our conference call today. With respect to our nine months result, we can now finally confirm the preliminary key headline numbers from last week's ad hoc announcement. Adjusted group EBIT turned out at -EUR 4.8 billion, compared with a positive outcome of EUR 614 million in the prior year period. Adjusted net income is down from EUR 487 million last year to -EUR 3.2 billion now. Both figures include about EUR 10 billion of realized incremental cost for procuring replacement gas volumes due to the Russian curtailments. When it comes to the unadjusted net income figures, the gas curtailment losses are significantly higher, as both realized and expected future losses are included here.
The expected curtailment losses have increased quite significantly since the H1 call, as the previously envisaged gas surcharge has been canceled mid-March. Without this surcharge, Uniper is no longer relieved from 90% of its gas curtailment losses from 1 October 2022 onwards. Accordingly, until it is finally clear how the tailored solution to compensate Uniper for the gas curtailment losses will look like, Uniper is now expected to bear the full Russian gas curtailment losses in its profit and loss, which is significantly driving up the overall expected gas curtailment losses reflected in unadjusted net income. This earnings development is also directly impacting Uniper's equity position, both under IFRS and German GAAP. In both cases, the book equity value is significantly negative, now based on 30 September 2022 valuation parameters.
Accordingly, we are clearly in a situation where more than half of the company's registered share capital has been consumed by the net loss incurred during the first nine- months of 2022. Therefore, as communicated in last week's ad hoc, Uniper's Board of Management will shortly convene an extraordinary shareholders' meeting in line with Section 92 of the German Stock Corporation Act in order to report on the losses and explain the situation of the company to the shareholders. This corresponding EGM will take place in the second half of December. The solution to bring Uniper back into safe waters lies in a successful implementation of the already communicated stabilization package as agreed by Uniper, Fortum, and the German government. While the implementation process is still ongoing, the German government's strong public commitment to financially support Uniper is acknowledged very positively by the rating agency S&P Global.
In mid-October, Uniper's investment-grade rating was confirmed at BBB-, outlook negative, including a six-notch governmental uplift above the standalone credit rating. Let us now take a look at Uniper's current situation in terms of gas curtailment losses, as well as the implementation of the stabilization package. European gas spot prices have declined significantly in recent days due to the very warm weather and filled up gas storages. As of last week, the TTF day-ahead price noted eur 30 per megawatt-hour. as a daily spot price is one of the key variables determining our daily procurement losses related to the Russian gas curtailment, our daily run rate of those losses has come down materially, almost down to zero. Accordingly, the accumulation of gas curtailment losses has almost come to a stop for the time being.
While this is positive, it is unfortunately only a momentary, mainly weather-induced situation, as can be observed when looking at forward prices for the next couple of months. It does, therefore, in no way reduce the importance and urgency to implement the sustainable and structural stabilization measures as agreed with the German government. The German government will take a 98.6% stake in Uniper by contributing direct equity and acquiring Fortum's current 80% shareholding. As part of the three pillar stabilization package, Uniper's short-term liquidity is fully secured by credit lines from the state-owned KfW. The credit facility line has been increased to EUR 18 billion, of which EUR 14 billion are utilized now, beginning of November.
The situation with regards to liquidity requirements is currently easing due to the recent decline in prices on the commodity markets, as well as a significant part of hedges is going to be realization over the course of this winter. While the net cash margining paid at the end of September was still quite high, with EUR 8.8 billion, we expect a significant release going forward if the commodity market trend continues. When it comes to supporting Uniper's equity position, it is agreed that the German government will inject EUR 8 billion in fresh equity through newly issued shares at an issue price of EUR 1.7 per share. Any additional need for equity will be addressed via additional tailored stabilization measures by the Federal Republic of Germany as third pillar of the stabilization package.
The details of these additional support measures are currently being finalized between the federal government and Uniper. The closing of the agreed transactions remains subject to various regulatory approvals, including state aid and merger control approvals from the EU Commission, followed by a subsequent approval by an extraordinary general meeting of Uniper. Our aim is to convene only one EGM at the end of December that will address both the previously mentioned notification regarding the equity loss under German GAAP, as well as the shareholder approval of the stabilization measures. However, depending on the further implementation progress, especially with regard to the outstanding EU approvals, we might need to convene two separate EGMs around the year end. Now, let's turn to Uniper's operating business in the first nine months of the current fiscal year.
Looking at our main operating indicators, despite the ongoing full supply curtailment of Russian natural gas, Uniper is on track to meet regulatory requirements at European and national level for its physical gas storages. At 88%, storage levels as of 30 September 2022 were in line with market average. Power generation in our European Generation segment continues to show an overall flat development in line with previous quarters. Focusing only on notable developments, most of the year-to-date production growth is attributable to Uniper's coal-fired fleet, with an increase of 7% compared to 2021. The development can be mainly explained by increased utilization, as well as one coal power plant returning to market, both to ensure security of supply.
This even overcompensates volume shortfalls related to last year's disposal of the Schkopau lignite power plant, as well as temporary regulatory limits on power production affecting our Maasvlakte 3 power plant in the Netherlands during the first half of 2022. The Swedish nuclear fleet was able to make up for an unavailability of the Oskarshamn Power Plant Unit 3 at the beginning of 2022. Volumes are overall up after nine months by 2%. Our Russian Power Generation segment continues its positive development with a volume growth of 21%. As already highlighted in our half-year results, this can be attributed to the full contribution of Berezovskaya Unit 3, as well as a beneficial domestic market environment. Meanwhile, 13% increase in group-wide carbon emissions follows mainly from the substantial increase in fossil-fired power generation in the Russian segment.
Subsequently, these developments are also reflected in our specific carbon intensity, which increased year-on-year from 448 grams to around 787 grams CO₂ per kWh. Moving over to our main financial KPIs. As you can see, all Uniper's key financials are materially impacted by the gas curtailments, although not always to the same extent. The adjusted earnings numbers as well as operating cash flow and economic net debt reflect only gas curtailment losses to the extent already realized, i.e., those losses relating only to delivery periods before October 2022, which amount to roughly EUR 10 billion as mentioned before. Looking at Adjusted EBIT and EBITDA, we see, however, only a decrease around EUR 5 billion year-on-year due to offsetting effects in the business that I will come to on the next slide.
With regards to adjusted net income, the realized curtailment losses are partly offset by a corresponding tax effect, which is determined by the high German tax rate. This explains the year-on-year deviation in adjusted net income of roughly EUR 3.7 billion. When it comes to the operating cash flow, aside from the gas curtailment, it is also negatively impacted by working capital buildup. While a general increase in working capital at the nine-month stage is in line with the usual seasonal pattern, the swing is significantly intensified by the high price levels this year. Therefore, the overall OCF is down by more than EUR 13 billion compared to prior year. Finally, the IFRS or unadjusted net income, which decreased by about EUR 36 billion year-on-year.
Here we see a significantly higher impact from the gas curtailment losses in the magnitude of around EUR 31 billion, reflecting both realized as well as anticipated future losses. We will have a closer look at that on one of the next slide. First, let's dive into the key drivers of Adjusted EBIT on the next slide. This chart breaks down the major effects, explaining why the overall EBIT came down from prior year's EUR 614 million to now EUR 4.8 billion. As you can see, the total deviation of about -EUR 5.4 billion between the years can be fully explained by the gas midstream business. Accordingly, the remaining effects net almost entirely out on an overall basis.
Let's start with the gas midstream business and break down the roughly EUR 5.4 billion of earnings swing between the years in this business. As explained on the right side, almost half of the EUR 10 billion of realized gas curtailment losses are offset by a EUR 4.5 billion margin shift between years. Hence, while 2022 is significantly benefiting, this upside comes at the expense of future periods, in particular 2024 and 2025. The reasons for this are twofold. First, Uniper has sold gas volumes to customers for delivery in 2024 and 2025. Due to a lack of gas market liquidity for those delivery periods, Uniper could not hedge the sales with the gas purchases in the same year.
Instead, Uniper did a proxy hedge by buying gas in 2022. This proxy has resulted in a time spread position being long in 2022 and short in the future values. As prices increase over time, the hedges in the front gain in value, while the sale deals in the back decrease in value. The second reason for the margin shift is related to our gas storages. With higher prices, the value of the gas injected into our storages, and hence the value recognized on the balance sheet increased. This positive effect will revert in the future once the gas is withdrawn from the storages and the higher gas balance sheet value is re-reflected in the gross margin.
In a simplified way, one can say that a part of the higher procurement cost today due to the gas containment has been rolled in the future years via our balance sheet storage valuation. The second element in the waterfall depicts the well-known carbon intra-year phasing effect. This effect is reflecting higher cost for CO2 emission certificates in the first nine months, which will be fully offset in Q4 once our carbon hedges settle. The absolute amount of those phasing losses that will fully revert in Q4 almost amounts to roughly EUR 470 million. As the carbon phasing amount was also quite high last year, we see only a small effect compared against prior year in this waterfall. The underlying business in European Generation is overall on prior year's level. While the overall delta year-on-year is almost flat, there have been opposite movements in the underlying portfolios.
Adjusted EBIT in European fossil generation, corrected for the mentioned carbon phasing effect, increased by more than EUR 100 million, primarily due to the significantly higher contribution from the dark spread fleet. However, those gains were offset by lower contribution from our outright portfolio, primarily our Swedish hydro business. Just like at the half year stage, we are impacted by significantly lower achieved prices driven by deteriorating EPAD, i.e., electricity price area differentials, especially in the Sundsvall region. The negative trend is even intensified in Q3, with the price differential reaching negative levels of more than EUR 320 per megawatt-hour end of August. This impact is also reflected in the achieved Nordic prices that are usually presented in the appendix of today's presentation. In that context, please note that the disclosed achieved and hedged prices for the German hydro portfolio actually turned negative for 2022.
This is related to buybacks. As you know, we had a very dry summer in Germany with low hydro availability. As a consequence, we needed to buy previously hedged volumes back at significantly higher prices. This resulted in a negative margin, which again translates into negative prices once divided by the volumes. Next, the international commodity portfolio, which is down by roughly EUR 340 million year-on-year due to our LNG business. As already flagged in the last call, there was an explosion at Freeport LNG in the USA. As a result, no LNG offtakes were taking place in Q3, which in our case meant that we missed three LNG cargoes. As those were previously hedged, we needed to buy the volumes back with significant losses.
This and the fact that 2021 was an extraordinary strong year for the international commodity business explains the significantly negative year-on-year development. When it comes to our power commodity business, we see a positive development. Here, successful trading activities enabled us to increase our earnings by a mid-double-digit million amount compared with the previous year. Finally, moving over to our Russian power generation, where earnings increased by more than EUR 160 million versus prior year. The business continued to benefit from an overall higher utilization of the fossil fleet and significantly higher day-ahead market prices in the Siberian price zone. Additionally, higher Period 3's CSA capacity payments overcompensated the negative effect from units seven and eight of the power plant Surgutskaya, moving from the CSA scheme to the lower remunerated KOM scheme. Additionally, the ruble exchange rate developed positively as well.
Having said that, let's have a closer look at the unadjusted net income on the next slide. After nine months of 2022, Uniper has recorded an unadjusted IFRS net income of -EUR 40 billion. This slide provides you some background on the main drivers of this extreme figure by reconciling the adjusted to the unadjusted net income. As you can see here, the main effect is once again stemming from gas procurement losses. While the adjusted earnings figures only reflect the cost of roughly EUR 10 billion pre-tax, net income additionally includes anticipated future reprocurement losses related to gas procurement of EUR 31 billion. This figure represents expected losses for delivery periods beyond September 2022, and is based on a set of scenarios.
Accordingly, adding both realized and unrealized losses, the IFRS net income ultimately reflects in total -EUR 41 billion of re-procurement losses related to Russian gas procurements. Furthermore, IFRS net income is also impacted by impairments of EUR 2.4 billion, which are also directly related to Russian war and its impact on the European economy. The impairments are dominantly driven by the Nord Stream 2 loan and the goodwill related to Unipro and Global Commodities, partly offset by impairment reversal on fossil generation assets. The next element reflect the impact from fair value measurements of derivatives. In many cases, those derivatives are hedged for Uniper's gas and power assets. While those hedges are subject to mark-to-market valuation, the underlying asset positions are usually not. Accordingly, if market prices move, only one side of the hedge relationship is reflected in the IFRS net income.
In order to avoid this accounting mismatch, Uniper's adjusted earnings figures exclude unrealized mark-to-market valuation effects. Finally, there are also some positive elements affecting net income, which are predominantly tax effects on the non-operating losses. Coming to the OCF, which came in at almost - EUR 11 billion, and hence more than EUR 13 billion below last year. This slide highlights the drivers why the operating cash flow development significantly more negative than the earnings this year. As you can see, the primary reason is a buildup of working capital of more than EUR 5 billion since beginning of the year, mostly related to the gas midstream business, and here, specifically to the gas inventory.
While the inventory gas volumes have gone since beginning of the year, the working capital buildup is even strongly driven by the price effect as the average price of gas of our balance sheet increased by a mid-digit euro megawatt-hour figure. While the gas business is by far the strongest driver for the working capital increase, the coal inventory also increased by roughly EUR 500 million to ensure security of a supply of our coal fleet. Finally, the operating cash flow in 2022 continues to be burdened by liquidity optimization measures that were taken in 2021, and which effectively moved operating cash flow into 2021 at the expense of 2022. Among others, those measures included shifting payments for purchased carbon emission certificates of 2021 into the year. This effect is reflected in the other category here.
Next, the development of the economic net debt. Uniper started the fiscal year 2022 with an economic net debt of close to zero. Now, after nine months, the economic net debt is at almost EUR 11 billion and therefore very much in line with the operating cash flow development. The other drivers of the economic net debt offset each other. This applies also to the roughly EUR 400 million net increase from investments, which is offset by lower pension provisions. The latter mainly result from increased interest rates in context of spiking inflation and are therefore subject to higher discount factors. For reference, the relevant interest rates used for pension provision increase in Germany within year from 1.2% to now 3.7%, and in U.K. from 2%- 5.1% respectively. Coming now to the last slide today.
Given high uncertainties regarding the short-term price developments on the energy markets and the financial burdens from the curtailment of Russian gas deliveries, I cannot provide a financial outlook in terms of Adjusted EBIT, et cetera as of today. Instead, let me provide you an outlook of the management focus topics for the next months and how we call them immediate priority actions. Stabilizing Uniper and de-risking the business model is on top of our agenda. Once the full implementation of the stabilization package is completed, we will be working on a new target picture for Uniper that ensures a sustainable, sound, and future-proof business model. This includes a rebalancing of our hedging approach in light of our liquidity capabilities.
This is something that we have started already back in 2021 when the liquidity situation deteriorated and which we will continue to work on in the context of the changing market landscape. As mentioned before, we will also reshape our gas midstream business, which among others, includes a full de-risking with regards to Russian gas curtailment in 2024. The exit Russia objective will be completed once we can successfully conclude the envisaged Uniper disposal. Contributing to security of supply for Germany and Europe is a second management objective, which is high on our priority list. This includes initially expanding LNG infrastructure and supply relationship as well in the longer term, contributing to the entry into the European hydrogen economy on a broader front. Finally, we are looking forward to work with our new shareholder on a future of Uniper business.
With our adjusted strategic plans in the drawer, we hope for a quick alignment in order to enter a realization phase as quickly as possible. It is particularly important to achieve clarity on Uniper's future path as soon as possible in order to keep the motivation of the Uniper's employees high. As Uniper's organization has been exposed to extraordinary stress levels now for quite some time, we need to achieve that clarity as soon as possible. This brings me to the end of my presentation today. Now I'm looking forward to taking your questions. Stefan, please.
Thank you, Tiina. We can begin our Q&A session now. Operator, I'm handing over to you to check if there are already first questions, please.
Thank you. Now we will begin our question and answer session. If you have a question for our speakers, please dial zero- one on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. Once your name has been announced, you can ask a question. If you find your question is answered before it is your turn to speak, you can dial zero- two to cancel your question. If you are using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selection. One moment please for the first question. The first question comes from Sam Arie from UBS. Please go ahead.
Oh, thank you. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for the presentation today. I feel like before I jump into any questions, I want to begin by just acknowledging what a difficult time this must have been for everyone at Uniper, and congratulations on sort of finding and navigating a way through all of this. I'm sure it's been very stressful for everybody. Having said that, let me jump into my questions. I think, you know, lots of interest probably on the not just the gas curtailment losses that you post today, but the provision that you make for the future, even though, as you say, there's been some temporary relief on prices.
It'd be great if you could talk a little bit more about how you get to that sort of EUR 30 billion additional provision, and is that consistent with, you know, maybe like another year of EUR 100 million a day type rates or just wondering how you think about that. Second important question if I can, you know, you talked about needing another tailored instrument which is under negotiation with the government on the equity side. I just wonder if you could give any more color on sort of what that might be, you know, how that impacts the, you know, few minorities that are still left.
I suppose I guess the question at some point becomes if any of these scenarios would kind of come with a mandatory squeeze out of any of the last minorities who are not really sure what's the point in sort of having kind of 1% out there in a float. Would be great to hear your thoughts on those two questions. Thank you.
Thank you, Sam . Good morning, and thanks also for your very, very kind words at the beginning. I start with the gas curtailment questions. As we communicated, the realized losses at the end of September were EUR 10 billion, and then we had to make the provision for the future costs, which we estimated to be EUR 31 billion. Now I think it is good to recognize that that this EUR 31 billion, first of all, is based on the 100% of the curtailment and no, in a way, surcharge or levy included, as this is not yet virtually certain and therefore not possible to recognize at the moment.
According to IFRS, we have provided in a way different kind of scenarios for the future and then taken the weighted average of these different scenarios. Most of the scenarios are based on the forward prices at the end of September. Of course, depending how the prices will move on, particularly in the longer term. Now we see that the gas curtailment losses they have been based on the spot price, fairly small. In general, of course, the longer term forwards are still fairly high. These scenarios, of course, we will update.
Once we'll go further, and then part of that will move to the realized losses, and then the future losses will be reflected based on the prices, what is the volume, and then potential mechanism to replace the surcharges. Other question about the tailored instrument. This is something what we have intensively worked with the German government, and the main target is to replace the withdrawal of the gas surcharge. The size of the instrument of course is under discussion, but basically it should reflect the economic losses incurred from the gas curtailment. The mechanism under discussion, but as the surcharge also the instrument would put in place while we know that what are the actual losses or the losses in the near period.
Basically amount roughly now is looking so the future EUR 30 billion, but we start with the shorter term outlook for this year and coming quarters, so roughly EUR 12 billion.
Okay.
We will communicate more once we are further defining the mechanism. Basically, key element is to replace the surcharge and of course then, secure our equity position.
Sorry, Tiina, can I just quick follow up on that one? A very short answer is fine, but I suppose what we're just trying to think about is when that instrument is agreed, is that likely to be a positive for the remaining shareholders or a negative? I suppose the gas levy would have been a positive because it was bringing more money back to Uniper from the rest of the, you know, German industry. Whereas if it's more money from the government that comes with more dilution, then probably be a negative. I'm just trying to think whether this instrument is positive or negative for shareholders. You see what I mean? Thank you.
Got it. I fully understand. Unfortunately it is too early to discuss, and I don't want to speculate on that one, we will come back once we know more. Your concerns and points very relevant and also discussed with the German government.
Okay. Well, thank you so much. Thank you.
Thanks.
Thank you. The next question comes from Louis Boujard from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Thank you very much for taking my question. Good morning to everyone. I have two, there may be to try to understand a little bit more, even if you don't provide guidance, what could be the expectation for 2022 and eventually a bit later on. When I look at your slide Page 3, I understand that eventually it could be expected to consider reconsidering the short-term gas prices, that the Q4 could be a bit better than initially anticipated, taking profit off the low spot gas prices and being able to sell them at a better price that would eventually offset a little bit the potential loss that could have been expected in 2022.
At the same time, you refer that you have some significant shift in margin in the longer term, meaning 2023, 2025 for EUR 4 billion or something like that are already recorded and booked there. What does that mean for your target, where you mentioned, I think it was the last quarter, that by 2024 you should be breakeven? Because it means that you will have higher losses, maybe later on, and maybe fewer than initially anticipated. Could you confirm that this is the correct way to see the move considering the current spot gas prices? This would be my first question. The second question regarding the total liability that needs to be expected.
We are talking about EUR 31 billion that you compute in potential losses on IFRS level, plus of course the EUR 10 billion that is now seen. You have reached the level at which it was supposed that you trigger the potential offsetting measures. Shall we consider that on the EUR 31 billion, the most likely scenario is that 90% of it is going to be absorbed or it is also still to be discussed and to be negotiated with the government at this stage? Thank you very much.
Thank you for the question. Starting with the guidance for 2022 and what is, in a way, anticipated for the future losses, quite right. This EUR 31 billion is only a snapshot of the current situation on that day's prices. What we can see that in the near term, the prices really, they have increased, but already now the day plus one has already come up from EUR 30- EUR 60. This is really something what is volatile, and we clearly measure that very carefully. The outlook for 2023 and 2024. Clearly will depend the overall market development and also what is the final stabilization package and how it will work.
The earnings shift clearly plays a role, how we have placed our hedges and how the earnings will land to the different years. Unfortunately, I cannot give the precise numbers. However, our ambition still remains unchanged. We aim to be EBIT positive during the year 2024.
Thank you very much.
Also the EUR 31 billion. Is it that is in a way the roughly the size of the in a way the governmental losses and then how much is compensated. This is really under the discussion. Of course it will depend the performance of the other part of the businesses and the final amount. I think the important thing is that we have the liquidity and then that the equity position is secured. We will come back hopefully soon how this tailored instrument will work.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press zero- one on your telephone keypad. Thank you for holding. We have another question from Sam Arie from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Well, if there aren't too many questions, I thought I would come back on and perhaps ask you guys a sort of wider question about the European gas outlook. I think you have obviously a pretty unique perspective on that. I guess there are two questions that we're hearing a lot. One is about this winter and relates to, I suppose, what's the risk that we actually run out of gas and storage in the later part of the winter? I know obviously we've benefited from warmer weather and a better situation in the last month or so, but I'm wondering if you could just share your sort of traders or commodity team's view on the risks through to the end of this winter.
Then secondly, the other big question is about next winter. I do sense a little bit of debate in the market about whether winter 2023, 2024 will be worse or better than the current winter. I suppose the concern is that we have to refill storages next year without access to the Russian pipelines that we had this year when we were filling storage. But on the other hand, the LNG market looks a bit more supportive. Demand, company demand is adjusting, whether it's been helpful. I just wonder if it would be the sort of Uniper team's view that next winter is worse, is a worse risk for Europe than this coming winter, or whether it might be actually slightly better. I'd love to get your perspective on those questions. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you, Sam. Really, the gas outlook also on our radar in careful look. Basically what comes to this winter, we can say that the storages are in good level. Of course that gives in somehow the comfort. However, it is all about the weather. What is the weather? How much is needed for the heating? That will play out the key role. Clearly, when it comes to the next winter, 2023, 2024, the storages will be quite empty after this winter. The question is that, how do we refill the storages? As you said, no gas anticipated from Russia, but then, Asian LNG, it is really the key and this is the part where we are also working heavily with the FSRU terminals and getting the supplies. This is the focus to really be prepared and do this transformation in the swift manner.
Okay. Thank you. Appreciate your comments.
Thank you. The next question comes from Wanda Serwinowska from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Wanda Serwinowska, Credit Suisse. A very quick question. Can you update us on the process of disposals of Unipro? Is there any new development? Any comments would be much, much appreciated.
Good morning, Wanda. The situation is pretty much the same as we reported during the Q2. We mentioned we made the strategic review at the end of last year, where the direction was to exit Unipro. While the situation is very challenging in the Russian market, we have continued evaluation of the topics. You can understand we are not commenting any individual discussion. Of course, the great performance of our Unipro assets increased the interest from different parties, so in that sense gives the good basis to take that forward.
Thank you. Can I ask a very quick follow-up? Assuming that you are successful in selling Unipro either later this year or next year, are you confident of making transfers of money outside Russia, given all the sanctions?
Well, the current regulation in a way prohibits the money transfer, so this is something what we need to then work out how to do and what kind of permits or arrangements could be done. Currently, the sanctions in a way is not allowing that.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question comes from Vincent Ayral from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Apologies I missed the beginning as we had Ørsted as well this morning. Just a very quick question. We can see that you've increased the provisions for future losses and the estimate is around EUR 40 billion. Clearly, that hasn't materialized in terms of a support package. Is it fair to assume that you will need a very material capital increase beyond the EUR 8 billion which has been agreed in your second round of bailout? Could we have a bailout 2.1, with actually a capital increase getting closer to EUR 30+ billion euros? How does that work in terms of a balance sheet and need for equity injection? Thank you.
Good morning. Good morning, Vincent. EUR 40 billion contingent losses now in a way recognized in our accounts. EUR 10 billion as a realized and then the EUR 30 billion for the future based on the snapshot prices as of 30 September 2022. This value clearly then will move based on the curtailment volumes and then the prices. I stated previously, the full package and particularly the tailor-made instrument is under discussion and it's too early to speculate exactly the value. What is important is that the German government has committed to provide the funding. As we have seen, the KfW credit facility lines increased. Also, if more equity is needed and clearly at least to replace the share capital or something, some instrument is needed.
That we will come back later on. But the full package in a way securing the going concern and good, in a way, basis to continue the transformation.
Thank you. I may rephrase the question. Uniper is still a listed company with minority shareholders. It's been put in a position, basically forced into losses, not being able to cope with measure or to pass through by the government. The government said, "Okay, we have bailout one, and there'll be no more economic dilution for shareholders." But then bailout two came in September, and there was a massive dilution with a massive capital increase. This was supposed to be kind of the end of the story as the government aid was coming, and the overall thing was sized for the expected loss of Uniper going forward. Now, the government aid got canceled, and the ongoing losses are therefore multiplied by ten.
There will be need for further support. If there is any comfort you can bring for minority shareholders in terms of them not being economically diluted further. Have you heard from the government that somehow they felt bad for what they did to minority shareholders? Is there any protection for shareholders other than sorting deal? Thank you.
Thanks, thanks for the very good question. Clearly, I think we live unprecedented times and fast-changing environment. Therefore, I think it has been good that the stabilization package has been adjusted. I clearly understand your concern for what is the outcome of the stabilization package. But that is really dependent on our discussions, but also the German government and EU Commission discussion about the state aid and merger control. I would keep that the current instrument, eight billion euros equity confirmed, also the KfW line confirmed and very well executed with the high amounts, and then the tailored instrument is under working, which should replace the sur charge mechanism.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions. I will now give back the floor to our speakers. Thank you.
Thank you very much, for attending today our call and speak soon at different occasions, and latest at our full year release next February. Thanks for attending today. Thank you all.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may now disconnect.