Verbio SE (ETR:VBK)
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May 13, 2026, 5:05 PM CET
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Q3 24/25

May 13, 2025

Operator

Good afternoon, everybody, and a warm welcome to the Verbio earnings call for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2024/2025. Today's speakers are Claus Sauter, CEO of Verbio, and Olaf Tröber, CFO of the company. They will walk us through the company's performance for the first nine months, touching on key milestones and market trends. Before we dive in, a quick housekeeping note: the conference is being recorded, and all participants are in a listen-only mode. If you have questions, please submit them using the chat box, and we'll address your questions in the Q&A session. Please make sure to preface each question with your name and the name of your company in order to be considered. The equity analyst joining the call can also ask a question directly via the microphone.

Please type the word "question" into the chat box to be considered, and we will open your line at the beginning of the Q&A session. Without further ado, I hand it over to Mr. Sauter and Mr. Tröber. The floor is yours.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

Thank you very much for the introduction, Harold. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our third quarter 2024/2025 and nine-month earnings call. I'm here today on the call with Olaf Tröber, our CFO. As you know, we are proud of our operational flexibility, integrated platform, and proprietary biorefining know-how. These capabilities have consistently delivered industry-leading returns across market cycles. They also give us real agility in challenging environments. We can shift priorities fairly quickly and reallocate resources strategically, focusing on innovation, high-growth segments, and value-accretive opportunities. As outlined in our last earnings call, we have reprioritized investments and focused on free cash flow growth. This will become more evident in the coming quarters. Saying that, I'd like to turn it over to Olaf to take us through our financials first nine months in brief and then the Q3 figures in a bit more detail.

I'll be back with the outlook and finally with the Q&As. Olaf, it's yours.

Olaf Tröber
CFO, Verbio

Thanks, Claus, and good afternoon, everyone. I will begin with a summary of the first nine months of 2024/2025. As always, operational production was good. Biodiesel production declined slightly due to commercial factors in Canada, which I will discuss in greater detail in a minute. For ethanol and renewable natural gas, or biomethane, we again reported record production volumes. The year-over-year increase in ethanol volumes, the light green bars in the chart on the far left, was driven by efficiency gains in Europe, especially in Europe, and further de-bottlenecking at a plant in South Bend in the U.S. Our renewable natural gas production volumes also increased thanks to better utilization at our plants in Nevada and India. Yet our EBITDA declined to EUR 22 million from EUR 82 million in the same period last year.

This was primarily due to the weak first quarter of 2024/2025 compared to the strong first quarter 2023/2024. The first half of 2023/2024 was still supported by strong fixed greenhouse gas premiums under existing contracts, and therefore setting a high bar for year-over-year comparison, especially in the current challenging environment. Our net debt at the end of March stood at EUR 154 million as we continued to invest in our key projects. These include mainly our plant for specialty chemicals in Germany and our ethanol plant in South Bend in the U.S. Capital expenditure totaled EUR 30 million in the third quarter and an aggregate of EUR 91.5 million for the first nine months of 2024/2025. Worth mentioning, at this time in the previous year, we had already invested close to EUR 130 million.

Our investments are being actively reduced with a clear further decline to follow while we focus on improving our operating cash flow, as Claus mentioned before. The equity ratio was around 63%, and then, yeah, with that, I will now turn to Q3. In Q3, we improved EBITDA year-over-year to EUR 8.2 million from EUR 7.3 million thanks to developments in the biodiesel segment and the segment other. The latter was our trading activities. With the reported EBITDA of EUR 5.4 million, it contributed meaningfully to our result. Quarter over quarter, the biodiesel segment lost some momentum as we had capitalized on increasing biodiesel prices thanks to favorable rapeseed oil purchases in our second quarter. As you will see in a minute, biodiesel prices have traded sideways since, while our rapeseed oil purchase prices naturally had to come up. Given the broader market conditions, the result is quite solid in comparison.

In the bioethanol segment, we were able to further increase the EBITDA over the course of the year, a trajectory that should continue into Q4, especially as driving season is coming up in the U.S. and we continue to ramp up production. Let me now give you a bit more color on the individual year-over-year performance of the segment. The production and sales performance of the biodiesel segment in the third quarter of 2024-2025 reflects the reduced production and sales volumes in Welland, Canada. Production came down as planned due to the difficult market environment resulting from regulatory changes in the U.S. We have ramped up the plant in March this year again thanks to the attractiveness of our location in Canada. Purchase and sales contracts now guarantee across margin.

Despite this, we were able to increase our EBITDA in the segment, reaching EUR 16.8 million following EUR 11.4 million in the third quarter of 2023/2024. Q3/2023/2024 included a non-recurring negative contribution to earnings from commodity futures. Now, turning to the reference charts, these show how biodiesel spreads have evolved. The spreads here refer to the difference between the biodiesel price and the rapeseed oil price. While the charts do not reflect our sourcing strategy, they still provide a useful snapshot of broader market trends. As we mentioned back in February, rapeseed oil prices have come down a bit from their peak and have stayed pretty stable since then. At the same time, biodiesel prices have not really bounced back yet, mostly because demand is still low and mileage has not picked up. Therefore, spreads have stayed flat. We are now seeing production of competitors coming down, which is actually a good sign.

It shows the market is starting to adjust, and that should support prices going forward. In the bioethanol and biomethane segment, we set new production records for bioethanol and biomethane in the third quarter of 2024/2025, confirming our performance gains. This can be seen in the left chart; the bar on the right highlights this trend. Despite the increase in production and sales volumes, revenue fell to EUR 181 million in Q3/2024/2025 from EUR 188 million in Q3/2023/2024. This is because revenue from physical trading contracts was recorded in last year's third quarter and then corrected in the fourth quarter. The decrease in EBITDA of EUR 8.8 million is due in part to the challenging biomethane and greenhouse gas quota business. Also, in the same quarter last year, there was a one-off negative impact from commodity futures and the changes in financial asset value.

Meanwhile, the startup costs of our quote projects remained the main driver of the negative result in the segment. Let's take a look at the reference graphs. They show how ethanol market spreads have developed. As with biodiesel, they do not reflect our exact purchasing or feedstock strategy, but they give us a useful view on the broader market. During our third quarter, ethanol demand in Europe held up well. Despite that, ethanol prices did not rise much, largely because production and imports stayed high. At the same time, wheat prices did not come down significantly, which kept margins under pressure. Overall, spreads were tight. In the U.S., the ethanol market faced typical seasonal weakness in the first quarter. High production and elevated inventories were the main drivers. Looking ahead, there are encouraging signs. Ethanol margins are showing improvement as we move into the second and third quarters.

This outlook is supported by several key factors: stronger fundamentals for corn oil, reduced ethanol stock levels following seasonal maintenance, higher planting demand, which is typical for this time of the year, and last but not least, a solid start to the corn planting season. Now, turning to our guidance. Our guidance, which was updated in January for the current financial year, remains unchanged at the mid-double-digit million EUR range. As of now, we do expect to come in at the lower end of the EBITDA guidance due to the current weak margin environment. The lower end does anticipate a slight recovery in spreads, which currently is the most realistic scenario. Our low marginal costs act as a soft price floor, allowing continued production even at lower prices.

In contrast, higher cost competitors have already started to reduce output or idle plants, which should eventually lead to a tightening of supply and support price recovery. Meanwhile, our expectation for net financial debt at the end of the financial year remains unchanged at a maximum of EUR 190 million. As I've mentioned earlier, our free cash flow should be break-even or positive during our fourth quarter. Now, let me hand over to Claus, who will give you a bit of a broader outlook.

Operator

I'm sorry, I just have to jump in. Mr. Sauter seems to have some technical issues, but he is back. I can't see him yet, but maybe you can hear him already. Mr. Sauter? Sorry again. Mr. Sauter, can we hear you again?

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

I can hear you. Can you hear me?

Operator

Yes, we can hear you. We can't see you.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

You don't have to see me.

But you can hear me. Yeah, I have some technical problems. I fell out. Okay. All right. Okay. Then it's okay if you can hear me. Olaf, thank you very much. Let me start now with an update on the greenhouse gas quota price development. In April, we saw a clear increase in transaction activities and, with it, a slight rise in greenhouse gas quota prices. There was an event that some HVO product coming into Europe was blocked by BLE. That led to a slight increase, and it shows that now the regulator is looking more in detail on what is really heading into Europe. While this price movement is still modest, it hints at growing stability and renewed interest across the market. In the short term, higher blending costs on the back of cheap oil prices are expected to support demand.

Looking ahead, we believe the recovery will gain momentum, especially as supply and demand begin to rebalance more sustainably, as we outlined in our last earnings call. To ensure this recovery is lasting, the right policy framework is critical. We achieved already, let's say, some effects in the new agreement. The coalition agreement already lists several key measures that point in the right direction: a gradual increase in the greenhouse gas quota related to the implementation of the RED III, stricter fraud prevention, and better control on imports. These steps are vital to restoring fairness, transparency, and trust into the market. Let me be clear. To move from recovery to long-term growth, we now need decisive political action. The industry depends on stable regulatory conditions and long-term planning certainty.

Therefore, I'm very positive that we have now a new Minister of Environment who knows the situation around the biofuel industry, who knows the situation in East Germany, who knows the situation, especially in the PCK refinery where our flagship is located. Now, turning to the other side of the Atlantic, let's talk about our Nevada project, the first integrated RNG ethanol plant in the U.S. The Nevada ramp-up continues to be a key priority for us, for Verbio. Over the past weeks and over the wintertime, the plant has reached new peak levels in production on several occasions. The progress we've seen clearly confirms the strong performance capabilities of the underlying technology. We are ramping up gradually, keeping process stability and reliable output growth at the forefront. RNG production is already running at 30-40 MW.

Looking ahead, we are planning with continuous production in summer 2025, though not yet at full capacity. Right now, short-term performance is influenced by the EU market distortions and the ongoing plant ramp-up, which simply takes time to fully deliver. In parallel, we are actively shaping our future through strategic investment choices and cost measures. These actions are designed to strengthen our long-term competitiveness while also impacting near-term financials, especially CapEx. As shown on the screen, CapEx have been significantly scaled back, declining from over EUR 250 million at their peak to less than EUR 100 million by 2025-2026. The plant build-out for specialty chemicals continues at full speed, and we have just recently put out the press release on the achievement of a further construction milestone.

Meanwhile, the investments at South Bend Ethanol to transfer the plant into a state-of-the-art facility that combines the production of ethanol with RNG will be phased. We will take each construction phase one by one with a clear focus on our cash flows. The investments into CNG and LNG gas station network will be finalized this financial year. With this, we are expecting to capture the rent in the value chain of biomethane. Opportunistic growth initiatives are paused while we continue to evaluate a partnership with GAIL in India. GAIL is the transnational grid operator of the CNG pipeline net. Now, the next logical step is organizational alignment. We are reshaping our structure to reflect those priorities and ensure that every part of the organization is moving in the same direction. This, unfortunately, goes hand in hand with workforce streamlining. We already had our town halls today.

Cost savings from reduction in positions in the mid-single-digit EUR million range per annum should come into realization in later months. We are reducing our workforce. In light of recent developments in trade policy, we are actively monitoring how these changes may impact our operations and strategy moving forward. Based on various sources, our current assessment at Verbio is that the direct impact of these measures on the company is expected to be fairly limited. In fact, our local market integration is a key advantage. I think what is worth to be mentioned is the first deal between the U.S. and U.K. on the reduction on tariffs. One of the top actions was that the U.K. is opening their biofuel market for U.S. ethanol. I think this development is quite interesting. Everybody knows that the U.S. has the cheapest ethanol in the world.

Honestly, we expected some movement in this direction. We think in further discussions with China, with Japan, with India, with Brazil, and even with the EU, the U.S. will focus on getting access with agriculture products like ethanol for these markets. Following that logic, the fact that Verbio is also engaged in the US market, we expect better margins in the US business because, as I said, the cheapest ethanol in the world is produced in the United States. They are highly competitive and once the markets are open in other countries for US ethanol, we will see a significant improvement in the margin situation in the United States. Let me also mention at this point that we keep our dollar holdings at a minimum level to avoid any unnecessary exposure. With that, now let's open it up to the Q&A session. Harold, go ahead.

Operator

Yeah, I will. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Sauter, for the insight, and we will now continue with the Q&A session. We'll start with the equity analyst who can ask questions directly via the microphone. Please type the word "question" into the chat box to be considered, and we will open your line. To support the technical process, please follow the instruction on the slide that is now available. All other participants, please submit your question via the chat function and make sure to state your name and company name, and we'll try to cover as many as possible in the time we have. Let's dive in and let's have a look for the first question. Until now, there is no question from the line, but from [audio distortion] . Can you quantify the startup cost in the U.S.? What is the expected FTA contribution in the US in the financial year 2024-2025? Is an improvement in the magnitude of the mid-double-digit euro million amount a reasonable assumption for the full years in 2024-2026 or 2024-2025?

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

Okay. What is the expected EBITDA contribution in 2024-2025? Olaf, can you take the lead here?

Olaf Tröber
CFO, Verbio

Yeah. For the current financial year, we will most likely come in at approximately minus $25 million, which actually covers both plants, Nevada and South Bend, but only a fraction for South Bend. That is actually the figure. Of course, with the increase in production, as you can see already from the charts and the figures, South Bend will come in next financial year most likely with a black zero or a single-digit positive EBITDA and a slight negative EBITDA for the Nevada facility.

What you have to consider is that we still face the ramp-up phases. An ethanol plant should have a capacity utilization of approximately 80% where you start really to earn money. Then we come into the driving season starting, yeah, more or less in October till March next year, where you can hardly earn any margins. That is market standard. We rather focus on a positive EBITDA contribution in the very last, in the fourth quarter of the next financial year.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

What I want to add here is that it is important now that we have a stable production in Nevada at about, yeah, right now, 50%-60% of utilization. The plan now for the summer is to go up to 80%. Yeah, to have a stable production, especially with the RNG production, is important to develop the market. That is our assumption for the next business year to have a slightly positive EBITDA contribution. Next question.

Operator

Perfect. Many thanks. We have got a question coming from Constantin Hesse. Mr. Hesse, you are able to unmute your device, so please go ahead. I still can see that. Yeah, here we go.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

It is working. Can you hear me?

Operator

Yeah, yeah, we can hear you perfectly.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Fantastic. All right. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple of questions. If you could elaborate a little bit on the recovery of the GHG quota prices. As you said, you expected a recovery from March. We have seen a tiny recovery, but it seems to be far from relevant. I mean, I think quotas were at EUR 120. Now it is at EUR 133, so no significant movement there. How should we expect that move for the remainder of the year?

Second question is on your balance sheet. I mean, we're getting to a leverage level that is certainly quite higher at about EUR 190 million now in net debt. In terms of refinancing, if you could just comment a little bit on the maturity profile here in addition to covenants, please.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

Okay. I start with the greenhouse gas and on the financial. Just what I want to add here, this is a limit what we set as the EUR 190 million. Right now, we expect that we will be lower there, but about the covenants and the stuff, Olaf will tell you. The greenhouse gas recovery, yes, it is true. What we do not see at the moment is a significant recovery. We are working on that level.

I think end of 2024, the German Ministry of Environment took some action to block CO2 savings from 2024, not to be used in 2025 and 2026. As we see, and the reason why they did this was that the clear message was that the state wants that the quota prices are recovering. Unfortunately, we did not have a minister the last five months, six months. That will be one of our top priorities now to go back to the government and tell them and say, "Look, what you did has no effect. The reason why you did it is that you wanted to see a recovery, what is not coming." We all know why it is not coming because the fraud is still continuing. It is even more accelerating. We made some proposals what has to be adjusted to bring the fraud down.

Fortunately, now we have a new minister. He knows, as I said already, the situation here in East Germany. I am optimistic that we will get some fast adjustment done that now during 2025, we will see a significant recovery in the direction to EUR 200. That will go really fast. I mentioned it during my presentation that the BLE is taking already action. We hear it everywhere from the market that it is not so easy anymore to get any kind of product into the EU. It is getting better, but we are far not there where we want to be. There are some adjustments necessary. Now we have a new minister. There is the clear message from the government that fraud prevention should be a key priority. We expect now during the second half that we will see significant recovery.

What we've seen now is not a significant recovery. Our actual calculation and our actions is we have to take the market as it is. We will continue, but with the consequences we mentioned, we are adjusting our investments, and we are also adjusting our operationals even if we have to continue with this low greenhouse gas prices for the months. Now, Olaf, something about the covenants on our financing?

Olaf Tröber
CFO, Verbio

Yeah, you already gave some keywords regarding the cost cutting and also the most likely better performance of Nevada. In that light, the EUR 190 million net debt is a figure that you would still feel comfortable with. We have further backup liquidity, untrained credit lines, and no hard covenants. The maximum is not driven by short-term funding needs, but by a prudent approach to capital structure. I am confident that we will achieve a positive operating cash flow. As discussed during our last call, we have some additional liquidity measures planned and potential to bring down also our working capital.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Can I just ask, just on the, what kind of credit lines are available now at the moment, Olaf?

Olaf Tröber
CFO, Verbio

I will not disclose the figure itself, but it is more than sufficient. More than sufficient.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

More than sufficient. Why would you need additional liquidity then and instruments on top of that? Why not exactly?

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

To discipline ourselves, we gave up that limit, 190. That is our own limit. We want to stay below. Therefore, we took the measurements we mentioned.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Understood. Last question for every, just this is a reminder, quick one. For every euro recovery and GHG certificates, what is the impact again on EBITDA? It's obviously not one to one, but it's 1 million. It is very okay. It's basically...

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

For a year, on a yearly basis, one euro recovery is 1 million result.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Sounds good. Thank you.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

Okay.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Hesse.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

Next question, please.

Operator

Yeah. For the moment, there are no further questions from a direct line, but there are further questions. We start with Leon Mühlenbruch from MBB Research. Can you explain again

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

The—okay. I can do it myself. Okay. Okay. Sorry. Can you explain again the main reason for the reduction in biodiesel production in Canada, how US regulatory changes affected this? I don't see it. Wait, wait, wait. Was the tariff situation also an influencing factor? Okay.

I explained this during our last call already. Okay. Just to make a long story short, it had nothing to do with tariffs. It had nothing to do with Mr. Trump. In the United States, there was a so-called blender's tax credit. Each gallon of ethanol, which was blended into the United States, became $1 per gallon of blender's tax credit. Already the Biden administration changed this regulation. It went from a blender's tax credit to a production tax credit. When we produced in Canada biodiesel, it went into the U.S. It was blended. There was $1 per gallon subsidy. Even for the Canadian market, that blended product went back to Canada. This is over since the end of 2024. Now for Canadian production or any production which comes into the U.S. for biodiesel, there is no more blender's tax credit available anymore.

There is a new system, the so-called production tax credit. This is relevant for all US producers. The problem is that nobody knows the details for the production tax credit in the United States. That is a big problem for US producers because right now, they do not know what is going on with the production tax credit. We, as Verbio, stopped our Canadian production mid December, developed a market in Canada. We are right now mainly selling in Canada. We started the plant in March 2015. First of all, we had to develop the market. Now we have the clients, and now we are supplying directly Canadian clients, which makes absolute sense. It has nothing to do with tariffs. Right now, we are not impacted by any tariffs. On the other side, I mentioned it.

We hope that this tariff discussion from the U.S., especially for ethanol, will create benefits for us. By the way, we have the production tax credits. Once they are there, will be related on CI, carbon intensity. We expect that there is some contribution from the production tax credit on ethanol and also on renewable natural gas. Next question. What about the situation in India? What exactly is the development there? What will happen next? When will the expansion take place? Are you still confident? Right now, we have a due diligence process with GAIL. I mentioned it. We signed an MoU, Memorandum of Understanding. GAIL is 51% or 52% Indian state-owned. They are in the gas business. We are dealing already with them for all the gas what we are injecting into the gas grid.

GAIL wants to increase the amount of renewable natural gas plants there in India. They want to do it together with us. Right now, we are in a due diligence process. There must be some improvements on the financials, on the profitability. Here, we are, let's say, confident that together with the state of India, we will be able to roll out our technology there in India. We are still talking about 20-25 million tons of biomass every year which are burned. That is cheap feedstock which must be somehow, yeah, safe from burning. That is our approach. Let's see what's coming the next month after the due diligence. Next question. Do you have a round about date or month in 2026 when the new bit of facility will be finished and production can ramp up?

Right now, the planning is that the start of production should be at the end of 2026. We expect commissioning will start about 14 months from now. The first stable production from the new product we expect at the end of 2026. Okay. On your specialty chemistry investment, what is the remaining investment volume? When is the production ramp-up scheduled? This I mentioned already. When could a break even be achieved? Our volume is already committed, pre-sold at a green premium. Yeah. For some products, we have already contracts. We will have three nine-day C7 fraction, and two more additional. For some of the products, we have already some contracts. The remaining investment, sorry, Olaf, there you have to help me.

Olaf Tröber
CFO, Verbio

It is approximately EUR 50 million spread over the next one and a half years.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

What you have to also take into account, it is two investments. The first investment is ethenolysis. This is in Germany, in Bitterfeld. The feedstock for ethenolysis is rapeseed methyl ester. It is the biodiesel. It will go into the chemistry plant. We will have the new product. To run that process, we need the catalyst. The catalyst will be produced in Hungary. That special catalyst, what we need for that chemical process, it will be about 2,000-5,000 kg per year. This is the capacity of the catalyst plant in Hungary. Investment in Hungary is about EUR 20 million. The remaining investment in Germany should be something what you said, EUR 30-40 million. That is the overall investment. Green premium. Yes, there is a green premium. Otherwise, if there is no green premium, we would not need that certain product.

We would be outsold. There is a green premium. It is not huge. It is limited, but it is in the expectations of our business case. Some products are very interesting, especially for the lubrication industry. On other products, we are still working to create the market. Some more? No? No more questions?

Operator

Actually, there is still a question coming from Constantin Hesse. Also, your line is still open, so you can unmute your device and you can, yes. There you are. That is great.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks. Just a quick follow-up on the balance sheet, Olaf. From what I understand, you are saying that the peak is going to be EUR190 million. You are saying that you expect that to improve next year. I am looking over a medium term. Is that peak for 2025, or are we talking about a peak? Do you expect an improvement from 2026?

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

This is our general limit. We will not go above EUR 190 million net debt. This is part of our, let's say, company targets.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. I think you mentioned you're currently working on a new financial instrument to basically give you additional liquidity. Are you considering equity for this, or is it all debt-related?

Olaf Tröber
CFO, Verbio

No, I do not know what you are talking about.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Oh, no. Olaf, I understood from the first.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

I think this is a misunderstanding. This is a misunderstanding. What Olaf meant was that, yeah, we had some possibilities to some businesses that we were able to generate liquidity. But this is business-related. We have now a bigger discipline on the working capital.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. That is understood.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

For the less working capital, also, that other measurement, and there we were, let's say, organizing liquidity. Olaf, is this correct how I said it?

Olaf Tröber
CFO, Verbio

Yeah. Overall, it's actually focused on the short-term assets, working capital, inventories, also other assets, short-term assets. Altogether, of course, you have to bring in line your operational cash flow with the investment cash flow, at least for the time being until you really see a sustainable market recovery.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. I'm just trying to piece everything together, right? As we go into the next financial year, you basically have the U.S. ramp-up helping you out on the profitability front. You have a little bit better spreads compared to the beginning of the financial year. Who knows what's going to happen to GHG certificates at this point? All of that already translates to at least a double-digit or mid to higher double-digit EBITDA figure, in my view. You add to that maybe some working capital inflow and additional CapEx cuts. You expect potentially even to positive free cash flow next year.

Olaf Tröber
CFO, Verbio

That's the goal.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

Yes. Very good summary.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. Excellent. Thanks.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

I could not do it better.

Constantin Hesse
Research Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you very much, Claus. Thanks, Olaf.

Olaf Tröber
CFO, Verbio

Thank you. Thank you very much.

Operator

Okay. So we're going back to the chat questions. There are two more. Mr. Sauter, do you want to read them out? Otherwise, I will.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

Yes. A question about your balance sheet. Your inventory has increased significantly by EUR 46 million year- on- year, which is almost 19%. What is driving this increase? And do you expect to maintain this high level? Olaf, it's your floor.

Olaf Tröber
CFO, Verbio

I mean, you have to simply understand that Verbio generates greenhouse gas quotas from the 1 January onwards.

We increase also the stock of the current greenhouse gas quota, which we are going to sell on a more regular basis. That means, of course, that we increase our stocks, yeah, slightly. Overall, the aim is to reduce the inventory by selling, yeah, which is actually not really needed for the production. It can be the biomethane. It can be greenhouse gas quotas, whatever. The aim is, of course, not to increase the inventory further and for the next financial year to even decrease the inventory from the 1st of July until the 30th of June 2026. That is the aim.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

Yes. For sure, we want to come back, but especially now with the situation about the greenhouse gas quotas, stuff like this, yeah, there was that increase, but we want to come back. Okay. Next question on the Nevada plant ramp-up.

From my understanding, the original plan was a full utilization summer of this year. Yes, that was the plan. The current communication appears more cautious. Which technical problems remain? When do you expect a full utilization? Okay. Yeah. The plan was this year, full utilization. During fall last year, we saw that we were not able to reach that target with our existing team in the U.S. The decision was that my colleague, Professor Oliver Lütke, went in October to the U.S. together with a very experienced team. Our best guys are right now working in Nevada. To be honest, we did not know why our US team was not able to start up the plant. It is not the first plant what Verbio has. We know that the technology works and that it is running. But technical issues or just lack of experience?

Today, we know that it is mainly lack of experience because the plant is running. We have ethanol production. Therefore, to come back to the previous question, if you have now bigger production in the plant in Iowa and even in the plant in Indiana, then you also have higher working capital. Just besides. Yeah, we were a little bit more cautious. We come back now. We say it works good. Plant is running stable. There must be some small changes in the equipment, but nothing which will really lead to a further delay in operations so that we can come back and can say, "No technical problems. It was lack of experience." We expect, yeah, a full utilization at the end of this year. Then again, winter is coming, stuff like this.

The plan right now, the clear plan is until summer, we want to be at 80-90% utilization. A full, stable production, reliable on full utilization where all the bottlenecks are done is expected for the next business year. Okay. No technical issues. It works. I am waiting. Somebody is writing one more question. Or? Do you have?

Operator

Yeah. It's a follow-up question from.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

Okay, okay, okay.

Operator

No concerns about the very cold weather.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

No more concerns. We were able to operate the plant during this winter. This winter was very hard, very extreme weather. We were able to run it through. That is the big difference to our German plant that you see regularly temperatures in Iowa during the wintertime at minus 30 degrees Celsius. We are dealing with a lot of water.

The whole process, biomethane production and also ethanol production is very much linked to water consumption. Yeah, we have to be prepared now immediately during fall for the new winter time that we will be able to continue production. There were concerns about very cold weather, but we managed it. Okay. Perfect. I think if there are no further questions.

Operator

Exactly. Also, we're running a little bit out of time. I would like to come to an end at this point of the call. I would say many thanks for your insightful question. A big thank you to you, Mr. Sauter and Mr. Tröber. To all participants, we appreciate your time and interest in Verbio. We would be really grateful if you would share your feedback with Verbio and also with our research team. For this reason, you will find a short email in your inbox. I would like to say have a great day. We are looking forward to seeing you at one of our next events. With this, I would say goodbye. I would also like to hand over for some final statements to you.

Claus Sauter
CEO, Verbio

Okay. Thank you, Harold. Thank you, Olaf. Thank you, everybody who was participating in that call. We are in challenging times. We mentioned it. Fortunately, now we have a working government back with a new, especially for us, new Minister of Environment. The job now for us all is to bring back, as I said in my speech, fair business relationships. There are small things which need to be adjusted in the existing regulation. The existing regulation is good. We have ambitious targets of growth in the biofuel sector.

I would also say biofuel as a solution to decarbonize transport is back. Our former Minister of Environment, there was electricity only. It is back. Biofuel are the biggest contributor of decarbonization in transport right now. It is back. As now, I even do not remember when it was mentioned in the program of the new government so explicitly. I am very positive that it will come back. Now the work begins. We have to get into contact with the government, with the new minister, and try to adjust the small pieces. I think there will be very, very fast a recovery in the quotas. Anyway, we must be careful how will be the continuous program. Right now, I see more light at the end of the channel than, yeah, many, many years before.

Thank you very much for everybody participating and looking forward for our next call presenting in September our figures for the whole business year. Have a nice afternoon. Thank you very much for participating. Goodbye.

Operator

Goodbye.

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