Good afternoon, and on behalf of Montega, a warm welcome to today's earnings call of Verbio, following the publication of the Q1 figures of 2023/2024. The CEO, Mr. Claus Sauter, as well as the Head of Investor Relations, Mrs. Alina Köhler, will guide us through the presentation and the results in a moment. After the presentation, we will move on to a Q&A session, in which you will be allowed to place your questions directly to them. With this, we are looking forward, and I hand over to you, Mr. Sauter.
Thank you very much. Welcome. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, to our Q1 earnings call. I'm here with Alina Köhler, our Head of Investor Relations, and we will cover our first quarter results and discuss current topics. We prepared a presentation, so let's start with the presentation. First, first page. So first of all, the key figures in Q1. So, we delivered in all segments, new production records, new production volume records, and this is underpinning our efficiency measures in Europe. And additionally, new capacities mainly related to our acquisition of the ethanol plant in Indiana, South Bend Ethanol. But as I said, also, due to de-bottlenecking in our German production unit, we were able to increase the volumes in ethanol and biodiesel.
The production of renewable natural gas went down a little bit, but this is due to our de-bottlenecking measures in the ethanol plant, where we had to stop production partially, to implement new technique, new equipment, to increase the production in the next quarters. EBITDA came down from EUR 121.4 million to EUR 48.8 million, and, this is... Well, it's not comparable because especially in the last quarter, we had still the advantage of, favorable feedstock positions. So the result with EUR 50 million EBITDA, which is up sequentially, down on year-on-year, but compared with the last quarter of the last business year, I think it is a reasonable margin, what we were able to achieve. Our net cash, was EUR 10 million. So this is due to the investment growth.
We did about EUR 50 million of investment in our growth projects. The equity ratio is at 72.6%. And now let me hand over to Alina to explain you the results in the biodiesel segment and furthermore. Alina, please go ahead.
Thank you, Claus, and also a warm welcome from my side. So let's first look at the EBITDA bridge from Q1 2022/2023- Q1 2023/2024, which you can see here from the left-hand side to the right-hand side. So clearly, we saw a decline in our EBITDA, which was driven by both segments, biodiesel and bioethanol. And as Claus just mentioned, for last year, especially in biodiesel, the comparability is not given. We had a very good feedstock position there, which was beneficial, and it was matched by very extraordinarily biodiesel prices. So clearly, we're still happy that we could report a sequential increase in the quarter, which you can also see on the right-hand side of the chart here.
The decline in ethanol year-over-year is mainly driven by lower ethanol margins, but also by the cost impact of our growth ambitions. This includes the ramp-up of Nevada, our new biorefinery, but also an impact from South Bend Ethanol. And just as a reminder, we acquired South Bend Ethanol in May this year, and since then, we're taking optimization measures there, which also means we cannot run it at full production capacity at all times. Furthermore, we did have some inventory valuation adjustments in the segment, and we will talk about this in a bit. But let's go into more detail in the biodiesel segment. As already mentioned, due to the low comparability, we focus on the sequential performance here.
Quarter-over-quarter, we have seen a strong increase in sales of more than 20%, as you can see here in light green, in the light green bar in the chart. We actually arrived to the sales figure of EUR 323 million, and this was mostly driven by the improvement in biodiesel prices. But also, we managed to increase our production to 161,000 tons per quarter, which is a new record production volume. So this, coupled with our, coupled with our purchasing policy of purchasing our feedstock two-three months in advance, led to a very good EBITDA of EUR 45 million, which is actually a positive EBITDA swing of EUR 55 million quarter-over-quarter.
Just as a reminder, if there's anyone new on the call, last quarter, our EBITDA was impacted by biodiesel imports from China, which are actually a fraudulent, Which is actually a fraudulent product, and which pressured the biodiesel prices much lower. And in a declining market, we of course have a disadvantage due to our purchasing policy of buying two-three months in advance. So the question is, what's new with the Chinese biodiesel? As you can see here in the chart, the biodiesel exports from China have actually declined quite a bit, 40,000 tons month-over-month, and that is actually half the volumes that we've seen in January. So it's really coming down strongly since the EU investigation started in mid-August.
Further, we would expect this decline to continue going forward, and hence, the pressure of the biodiesel prices should not come back. But let me come to the biodiesel market in general. So here in the chart, you can see that with the imports from China coming down, the spreads have been increasing throughout the quarter. That's reflected by the green line. And spreads, in general, are biodiesel prices minus rapeseed oil prices, just if anyone is aware of the term. And here, like I said, you can see that it's increasing throughout the quarter, so from July to September. And if you compare to our last quarter, which is the gray line from April to June, you can see that it's quite strongly above that line there.
However, now, if we compare to the last year, you can also see that the market spreads last year in the first quarter were very, very high, which we even managed to surpass due to our really good feedstock position at that time. If we now look at the drivers of spread, so that would be, like I said, the biodiesel prices and the rapeseed oil prices, we can see the biodiesel prices primarily have come up quite strongly, but also rapeseed oil prices have decreased over the first quarter. But now let me hand back to Claus, who will lead you through the bioethanol segment.
Thank you, Alina. As the biodiesel results show already, we are coming back to normal conditions, or let's say, less exciting. Now let's have a look on ethanol. The volumes, and I mentioned it already, went up by 12%. Half of this increase is coming from our de-bottlenecking and investment strategy in Germany, and the other half, approximately, is coming from the new capacities in South Bend. However, sales came down due to lower ethanol prices and on additional quota sales. This had a negative impact on our earnings quarter-over-quarter. As Alina mentioned it already, we had additional costs due to the ramp-up of our growth project in Nevada. We are right now in the commissioning phase. And secondly, the optimization process in South Bend.
South Bend, as you know, is a traditional ethanol plant, but we are implementing right now there our technologies. So we don't have a stable production the last month. From time to time, we had to stop. And, yeah, even to the very favorable margin conditions in the United States. But anyway, we have to start to implement our technologies in South Bend as well. What I also want to mention here is that we are going to start the investment, so to build up there our biomethane technology in South Bend. We are going to start with the investment this fall. So at the moment, we are waiting for the permission. Quota prices had an adverse impact on our EBITDA.
through inventory valuation adjustments, Alina mentioned it already, but this is only part of our, or only part of our production there was impacted. In total, these special effects have a lower double-digit million EUR amount. So what about the margin in ethanol? So we have here on that chart, the development, the margins or the spread in 2022- 2023. And you see a very big volatility there. In November, December, we were even negative. So also here we are coming more to, let's say, a normal business. The margins were quite reasonable in this quarter, but as I mentioned, due to the effect with commissioning and with improving the technology in South Bend, we have their costs.
So for the actual situation, we are talking about EUR 200-250 spread, which is quite a reasonable margin. So if on the other side, ethanol prices came down but recovered from November, December last year. And what you have here on that chart is due to the decrease in ethanol prices, also the grain prices came down significant. You know that we are able and flexible to use always the cheapest grain. But as an example here, we show you that even the margin between wheat and ethanol, and wheat at the moment is not the cheapest grain, but even there, we have a reasonable margin. Now, let's come to the quota prices.
There we saw significant decrease from approximately EUR 500 per ton of CO2 savings in the last year to 120-140 at the moment. And what I want to mention here is that, that the biodiesel imports from China are not only impacting the biodiesel segment, they are impacting the whole biofuel segment, and the quota price is just a mirror of the differential between biodiesel and diesel. So here you can see significant increase, but what we see that there is a big bid-ask spread at the moment for the greenhouse gas reduction, and only negligible volumes are changing hands at the moment. What you also have to know regarding the actual situation, and this we see every year, that right now we are negotiating our new contracts for 2024.
For sure, especially the oil companies are interested in their negotiation to have the level down. So parts of Verbio's greenhouse gas reduction are locked in at attractive prices until the end of 2024. And as I said, right now, we are negotiating the contracts for the next year. Next slide. So our guidance is still the same. So we have our EBITDA; we expect in the range of EUR 200 million-EUR 250 million, and for the end of the business year, our net cash will be between -EUR 110 million and -EUR 150 million. So despite decline in quota prices, we keep our guidance unchanged.
And, even this fact is due to some reasons that for the first quarter, as I said, we are perfectly in line with the guidance. We are even ahead of our planning, what we expected. And, while we expect a further impact from valuation adjustments for the second quarter, we should also see a better performance from ethanol. The ethanol curve is at the moment, the price curve, very much backwardated. But on these prices at the moment, any arbitrage from any destination remains closed. The ethanol demand all over Europe is increasing. There are no additional European capacities under construction. So the question is, where the ethanol, the additional demand should come from? It must come from imports, and therefore, we are quite sure that the actual price level will stay stable.
For me personally, I see even an increase in prices just to open the arbitrage from the U.S. and from Brazil. So what are the current topics? What are we concentrating on? First of all, the most important part is, at the moment, the commissioning of our Nevada plant in Iowa. So we produced already small amounts in Q2, 2023, 2024, but more significant volumes will come in spring. Ethanol and also gas from stillage. Then the construction activities are progressing. Construction activities in Germany, where we are going to start this fall with our ethanolysis project, to produce chemicals from our rapeseed methyl ester. And finally, as I mentioned already, that we are going to start construction in fall at South Bend to do the foundation for the first digesters.
On the LNG, CNG site, we are operating right now nine filling stations all over Germany, and five more are expected to come until the end of 2023. Finally, I also want to mention positive, very positive development in the U.S. The renewable natural gas, what we are already producing in Nevada, based on corn stover, which is a cellulosic biofuel. The EPA, the Environmental Protection Agency, increased the target for cellulosic biofuel significantly for 2023 and 2024. That is, that is increasing demand for these RINs and also for our molecules, and that was resulting in a 70% increase for the D3 price since June. A second effect is that the voluntary market, so demand for renewable natural gas, especially from stillage, which is the cheapest renewable natural gas in the United States.
So the demand from the voluntary market is significantly increasing, and our plan is clearly, once Nevada is operational, to analyze significant amount of our RNG production in Nevada to these so-called voluntary market. That is our clear target, and the advantage, the prices are very attractive. They are about double the price what we can achieve in the transport sector, but in the transport sector in the U.S. But our intention is to get out of this dependency fully related to the development of the biofuel segment in the United States. So I think that is it. Alina, did I forgot something?
No, I think we can start with Q&A.
Okay, then let's start with the Q&A.
Thank you, Claus. Thank you, Alina, for your presentation. We will now move on, as said, to the Q&A session. Dear ladies and gentlemen, kindly note that it is highly appreciated to ask your questions in person via audio link. To do so, please click on the virtual Raise Your Hand button. If you have dialed in by phone, please use the key combination star key nine, followed by star key six. If you're not able to speak freely today, just place your questions in our chat box. We already received the first questions from Mr. Becker. Please, go ahead. You can unmute yourself now.
Yes. Good afternoon, Mr. Sauter and Alina. A couple of questions from my side. Firstly, on your term contracts for 2024, I understand your negotiations are usually finalized by late November. Could you please provide more color on how the negotiations are going so far, and also give a rough estimate of how much of your 2024 volumes you have contracted at this point?
Thank you. That is a good idea, question by question. Okay, about 50% of our volumes, we placed already. So, you know, the negotiations is mainly due to the volume and, let's say, some side effects. We are not fixing prices. The prices are related to the indices. So this is for biodiesel and ethanol, and, yeah, prices are floating due to the market. On the quota, in the past, we sold the quotas in addition to the need of greenhouse gas savings, the different companies need. And this is, let's say, a little bit a tricky discussion at the moment. What will happen with the Chinese imports? Because, the oil industry is sitting on about 3.5-four million tons of CO2 savings, which is about 25% of the demand, what they need in 2024.
So the question is, what will be the reaction from the European Commission on the Chinese imports? If there is really a fraud, and I think the decline in imports show that not everything was fine there. I don't want to say that all... I don't want to say that all the imports were fraud, but at least why are 50% away if everything is fine? So the question is, how it will continue? Will there be a real ban on Chinese imports? Because there was circumvention for Malaysian production. This we know already. So will there be a complete block, or will there be a continuous flow? Because what you have to know is the quota in 2024 will increase by 1%. One percent means additional 1.5 million tons.
This is the effect, what is going to happen on the quota prices. So if there is less flow from China, there will be less supply for biofuel to Europe, to Germany. The product mainly came to Germany because of the attractive double counting. Less supply, and on the other side, a higher demand due to the higher quota. And what you also have to know, 2025 will be the first year when the quota will increase by 2%, so another three million tons of CO2 savings. As a result of that market distortion from the Chinese import and the decrease in CO2 prices, a lot of planned projects in Europe are stopped. So what we expect is a relatively fast recovery in the CO2 pricing, and we don't see much supply. We don't expect that Chinese imports will be stopped completely.
So for the quota, right now, we are not selling it on fixed prices. For some customers, we leave it just open and say, "Okay, let's see what is going to happen and what will be the pricing during 2024." But what I also mentioned in my presentation is that the liquidity in quota is not so big. So because of this, we have that big bid-ask. So the prices at the moment is between EUR 110-EUR 150 per ton of CO2 savings, which is huge, and the volumes are very small. So that is the strategy for 2024. We expect further recovery in pricing for biodiesel, for ethanol, as I mentioned. And quota, we are not selling on fixed prices due to that situation, what we have in the moment for 2024.
That's very clear. Maybe just one question related to that: Could you confirm whether you have sold any quotas at the recent price levels or not?
No.
Okay, that's clear. And then just one question on your adjustments in the bioethanol segment. Could you provide some information on the split between the impacts from the ramp-up costs and the revaluation of your greenhouse gas quotas?
I could, but I don't want, due to our negotiations on the contract. I don't want-
Okay, and then-
I don't want to disclose where is the level where it hurts us.
All right. Understood.
Yeah.
Maybe just one follow-up on that one. What can we expect for the second quarter in terms of revaluation impact?
Well, it depends now how the pricing will continue and what... You know, we have on the one hand side, we have that quota, and on the other side, we have our real business. So we were selling quota a little bit, but not on these prices. So we, in our Q4 planning, Q2 planning, there we expect some impact, but not very much on our actual quotas. But overall, in the second quarter, we expect better results like in the first quarter... even with this adjustment on, inventory.
So you expect underlying profit to be better than in Q1, excluding the adjustments, correct?
Including the adjustments.
All right, that's very clear. I'll go back into the queue. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Mr. Becker. We will move on with the questions of Mr.Philipp . Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, can you hear me?
We hear you very well.
Okay, perfect. Thanks for having me. So first of all, a bit of housekeeping on the quarter. Obviously, you had a very strong development on the biodiesel side. Is it correct to assume that not only higher prices, but also an increase in the merchant volumes did help on this one?
Sorry, impact on merchant volumes?
Yeah, Handelsvolumen. Did you-
Trading volume. No, it was-
Trading volume.
It was due to the higher biodiesel prices.
Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah.
So that didn't increase, actually. But you obviously had some volumes there. Would you disclose how much that actually was?
Oh, this I don't know. Alina, you know?
Yeah, it was stable quarter-over-quarter, so, I think it was less than 10% of the production volumes.
Okay.
Yes, about 5,000-7,000 tons, not more. So it's on a monthly basis, on a monthly basis. 50,000 is our capacity. Yeah, about 10%.
Yeah, makes sense. And then, how was it in this quarter with respect to storing methane in the network? Or where do we stand in terms of stored gigawatt hours in your network at the moment?
I think we're around 860 GWh, but I honestly would have to check that number again, and I will come back to you on that.
Yeah, that would be fine. Okay. And but you answered already quite some questions I had asked on the quota.
Yeah.
But yeah, I mean, coming back to the guidance, obviously, I recall that last time we discussed also the lower end of your guidance and the upper end. I mean, now you're saying, obviously, that you're not selling quota next year on fixed price, but rather floating. I mean, well, there might be some fluctuations here and there. Well, first of all, I would say due to the very good spreads, both on ethanol and on biodiesel, as you rightfully said, you will have a good Q2, so tick the box here. Hopefully, also spilling over a little bit into early next year. But is it the levels that you are looking at in terms of the quota price?
I think last time we discussed something like EUR 250, rather being, let's say, the eligible amount for the upper end. Is that still something you would confirm? And let's say, if the quota price stays, unfortunately, then at a very low level of whatever EUR 140 you mentioned, should we then think of, you know, maybe reaching rather the lower end?
Well, that was my personal expectation that I see the prices during 2024 to EUR 150.
Yeah.
But in our planning, the prices is much lower, so it's not EUR 200... Our planning is not based on EUR 250.
Okay.
Okay?
Yeah.
It's not based on 250.
No.
I don't see the quota below 200.
Yeah.
You know what I want to say?
Yes, I can imagine.
Okay.
And then another question, since you're still showing this chart here, on cellulosic RIN prices. You had said that... I mean, obviously, prices for D5 RIN are not very good at the moment, but at the same time, you said that the voluntary market offers quite interesting conditions. I mean, if that is the case, why shouldn't there be arbitrage between the voluntary market and D5 RIN for transport? So just volumes not going into transport, actually, but in, into the voluntary market then and, and doing the arbitrage.
What kind of arbitrage you mean, you know? A spillage gas doesn't fulfill the requirement for a D3. A D3 is-
Right
... defined as cellulosic biofuel, and cellulosic biofuel mean 75% of the feedstock must be at least cellulose, hemicellulose, or lignin.
Right.
This requirement, we don't fulfill for the stillage. The stillage is mainly protein. Remember, the cannibals?
Yeah.
Okay. But to answer your question, what is the logic behind? The voluntary market, you know, at least the voluntary market is not a voluntary market. There is always some logic behind. Nobody will buy methane, which is the same molecule like fracking gas in the United States, for eight or 10 times the price. There must be a logic behind. But this logic is not an obligatory market like the transport market.... So the question is: What is the cheapest renewable methane in the market? Right now, everything which is methane in the U.S. market, which goes to transport, is a D3. So if you want to have renewable natural gas for other applications, the price for the methane will follow the line of a D3. For sure, you have to give a discount-
Uh.
But it is following. So what the-
The perspective of that is from stillage or from corn stover, you mean?
Yes, they don't care. This voluntary market, you know, for the transport sector, you need a D3.
Yeah.
Everybody who is selling gas oil and gasoline needs a D3, and there it is clear it must be 75% cellulose, or it must be manure, or it must be landfill. And all this kind, this is, this is how renewable natural gas is, is in the U.S. market, and all of it is a D3. So now we are the first producer of a D5 renewable natural gas, which for sure we can produce much cheaper than the cellulosic RNG, because there we have to collect the corn stover, is a lot of logistics, is a lot of storage.
Right.
Okay? So that is. And this is really a significant development, and because of this, I'm emphasizing it so much. So at the moment, all eyes are on Nevada to commission the plant. Once we have commissioned and we know that we have a stable production, we can start to sign the first contract for voluntary markets.
Yeah, it was just the question was coming from, because I was, maybe I'm mixing things up. Sorry for that if that's the case. But actually, the point was, that I saw RIN D5 prices actually coming off quite-
Yeah
... substantially in the U.S., and so that was the reason why I was-
Yeah
... asking about it. So if someone had-
I mean-
Yeah, go ahead.
You know, the point is, what is a D5? A D5 can be anything which is not corn ethanol. So-
Yep
... mainly the D5 is Brazilian ethanol, sugarcane ethanol, which are better CI. That is mainly the D5.
Yep.
If we go to transport, we have to compete with sugarcane ethanol from Brazil.
Yep.
But when I'm talking about the voluntary market, then these are specific clients which are looking for a methane molecule. They want to have CH4. So if we would go to transport with our methane, yes, it is a D5. But if we are going to the voluntary market, to everybody who is interested in cheap hydrogen, you know, it is not like in Europe, where the hydrogen must be from electrolyzers.
Yep.
The U.S. market is more open, so there the market, if somebody is looking for renewable hydrogen, it can also be from renewable natural gas. Therefore, the D5 is not interesting. The question is: What is the cheapest renewable natural gas in the U.S. market? This is our molecule, because we can give a discount on a D3. We will see how much discount we have to give, but anyway, it will be much more than a D5.
Yeah, that's for sure. Okay.
Okay?
Right. Thank you.
Very interesting development in the U.S., I can tell you. Now, maybe something what I also want to mention, you were asking about our trading activities, you know, in biodiesel, how much? We said less than 10%. So we are working on increasing it, but it may—I think it will start to have higher amounts, higher volumes in 2024, but that it is really significant will start in the next business year, so 2024, 2025. But we are working on it. It is not that we skip this, this, this theme. No, no, no, no, we are working on it, but right now we are not there. We have to implement, you know, all the logistics. We need tanks, we need the right people to move it, transport capacities, everything like this. So it will become bigger. Okay.
All right. Thanks, Mr. Sauter.
Thank you, Philip.
Thank you so much for the questions. In the meanwhile, just a short reminder, if there are still open topics you would like to discuss, just raise up your virtual hand or place your question in our chat. In the meantime, I just have a question: What production capacities will you achieve in the midterm for biodiesel, bioethanol, and biomethane?
Sorry, what was the question? About what, what amount of capacities we are achieving?
What production capacities will you achieve in the midterm for biodiesel, bioethanol, and biomethane?
... Well, for biodiesel, we have 710,000 tons of capacity in Germany and in Canada, and right now we are not planning to increase this capacity.
All right.
For ethanol, we are going to 300,000 tons in Germany. We have already, with the South Bend plant, which is a plant which is producing, I think it's 250, or Alina, 250 or 300?
250.
250,000 tons yearly capacity. And with our additional plant in Nevada, Iowa, what we are going to starting up is another a hundred and twenty or.
180.
180,000 tons of ethanol. So altogether, we will go to
I think maybe... I, I honestly, I don't have the numbers in my head right now either, but we just released an, on the Capital Markets Day presentation with our midterm expectations, where our capacities will be at, and also in the short term, how we plan to ramp it up, including these projects that Claus just mentioned. So we could... Maybe it's, it's better if you just look at our website and the presentation, and all the ramp-ups are included there.
Yes. And finally, it is about 800,000 tons, which is now under-
For ethanol, yes.
Yes, for ethanol. And for renewable natural gas, we are going to 2 terawatt hours.
Yes.
So right now we are approximately 1 TWh, so we are heading into 2 TWh, and that is the plan until 2026, 2027. But that is the status quo, the status quo today. So I think once we make the proof of concept in Iowa, we will have a look what are the possibilities to increase the market. Maybe at that topic, you know, our technology, maybe it's not so clear for everybody. The fact that we are combining ethanol and renewable natural gas is similar with, with the implementation of an turbo engine in the Formula One. So before there were the and suddenly somebody came with a turbo.
So we have to bring the proof of concept, but this is really the difference, that having the ability to make from corn, ethanol, and renewable natural gas, is changing the economics completely.
All right.
Nobody, nobody is able really to beat us in the U.S. market with this combination. For sure, once we showed it, other producers will follow to try to copy that technology, to be able also to build on turbo engine. But this is, how to say, once we have the proof of concept, we have to speed up really to implement it more in the U.S. market. Okay, another question?
Great. Thank you so much. Yeah, we received another question in the chat box from Mr. Steger Tiedgil. "What is the current contract structure in the voluntary markets in the U.S.? Are these long-term offtake arrangements at fixed prices?
There is a lot of interest, I mentioned it, and everything is possible. So even the fact to make some long-term contract, but the question is what we mean with long-term contracts, we think that three to five years offtake agreements might be possible. But I think also the ability to sell bigger amounts on a long-term contract on a variable price based on what we see here, the D3. You see also here, how volatile the market is. In June, a D3 RIN was at $2 per RIN, which is 22.4 kWh, and right now we are talking about $3.50. So it might be possible to make a long-term agreement. I don't know if we really want this, but that is something which is on the table, and the interest is big.
Great. Thank you, Mr. Sauter. We have a follow-up question from Mr. Philipp . Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks for having me again. Actually, two questions. Well, first of all, just to come back to the performance of the bioethanol segment, obviously, you mentioned the three input factors that caused the low EBITDA in Q1. Given what you said, so how should we think of it? Is, is, let's say, kind of a clean performance on the EBITDA side of the segment, rather somewhere in the ballpark range then of EUR 20 million, actually as a starting point for how we should model the next quarter? And the second question is just on the IRA. I mean, obviously, we heard a couple of news on that in your slides on the Capital Markets Day, and how you initially think of it. I was just wondering, is there some sort of update?
Is there a little bit more clarity for you also on the obligation side that you have to fulfill? Anything that you could share would be, would be helpful on this one. Thank you.
Well, okay, second question first. There are still no details from the U.S. administration regarding the IRA for new projects, especially, you know, about the wages, all these-
Prevailing wage agreements.
Prevailing, yes.
No.
Prevailing wages. So there we have nothing. But, you know, our projects in Nevada started before the implementation of the IRA.
Right.
So we don't have to fulfill there any requirement. So once we finish, we are able to get the 30-- minimum, the 30% on the IRA. The details for the IRA are now more interesting for South Bend, and right now, as I said, we don't have the details. We don't know. At the moment, we try to fulfill the requirements, what we know. But, yeah, anyway, let's see what's coming there. Nothing new. For your first question, you know, this is... As I said before, I don't want to give here more details on the ethanol side.
I know that this is not too zufriedenstellend, but due to the fact that we are in the negotiations with the oil companies and that we don't want to disclose too much, please accept that I don't give you here more meat to the bone.
Okay.
Please.
All right. Thanks, then.
Okay.
Thank you very much. As it seems, there are, there are no further questions, we therefore... Oh, just, go back. We have another question, so from Mr. Becker. Let's, let's hear what your questions are.
Yeah, one question on your LNG gas filling station network in Germany. You initially had communicated that you were supposed to build some 20 gas stations by year end of this year.
Yeah.
Could you maybe just briefly outline what has changed and why you're only going for 14 now? And are you still going for the remaining 6 in the next year? Thanks.
Yes, we are still go-- The plan hasn't changed. We are-- Maybe we are making even more. The plan hasn't changed. Why we have the delay? Yeah, like anybody else, distortions in the supply chain. Still there is a shortage in compressors and stuff like this. Everything is still related-
Government approvals. Sorry to jump in, but it—like, for we need a government approval for each gas station, and that has been one of the biggest issues there as well.
Okay, okay, okay. Yeah.
Okay, and maybe just one question related to that. Could you provide a split of how much of your RNG in Germany you are currently selling downstream, i.e., via your gas filling station network, and how much you are still selling via third party?
Difficult. I would say at the moment, 25% goes through our own filling station, or 20% goes through our own filling stations, and, yeah, the rest goes to third-party filling stations. But, you know, we don't need to bring our own production immediately to the filling station. We have two possibilities. We can store the gas in the grid, so there we are at 850 gigawatt hours right now. And once we sell it through the filling stations, we create the CO2 savings. So, after the bankruptcy of BMP, let's say the condition for selling CNG through third-party filling station became a little bit more reasonable again. So also, these contracts are, we are negotiating new for the next year, and then let's see what is coming out. But we didn't sell significant amounts through third parties.
It was something about 150 or 200 GWh of our production. I think that is a better figure. Now let's see what is the situation for next year. BMP was a big player, and they are away. As I said, the conditions are now more reasonable again, but our clear target is to sell as much as the molecules downstream. We are our own LNG, LCNG filling station network. There we have the whole margin.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you, Mr. Becker. Now we have another question from Mr. Peel again.
... Yeah, all good things come in thrice, obviously. So, actually, a question: your friendly competitor has recently announced that it has built a filling station for E20, I think, in Mannheim.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And I was actually thinking about obviously, they are also maybe supporting you then at the end if that finally prevails. So just would love to hear your thoughts on that. I mean, from, you know, feasibility, technical, issues, whatever, but, I guess this is something you would in principle work on if that finally goes through, right?
Well, look, with E10, we are still at 25% in Germany.
That's very low, I know. Yeah. Okay.
So there is 75% "...". In France, we are already at 55%. So in France, the French oil companies, mainly Total, is using this possibility to increase more E10 to fulfill their target. But you see, there is still a possibility to do it with traditional ethanol, to with traditional biodiesel. So right now, I don't see any sense to go now in E20. I like very much what our friendly competitor was doing there, but it is more like a marketing, let's say,
No, I understand. Yeah.
Yes. So I like it because, you know, it's no problem to go with E20, but really, as a business strategy, we are not spending time for this. But I like it, and I highly appreciate that. Chapeau, very good possibility to get visibility, but that will be one filling station, and I don't know if anybody, as an external, will fill up the car with E20 because it, it's not approved from the car producers. E10 is everywhere approved-
Right
... and people are still scared to fuel it because they are afraid that there might be something with their car.
Oh. All right, thanks.
You're welcome.
Okay.
We have another question in our chat box. They can learn something about the prices achieved for the THG quotas that you have sold by the 2024 deadline. What do you think the fair market price should be in 2024, 2025?
That is a good question. I think to achieve the ambitious German greenhouse gas reduction targets, we need additional investments. These additional investments to build up capacity in Europe will... I'm talking about real greenhouse gas savings, not buying palm oil methyl ester in Indonesia, bring it to a storage in Hainan, change the ticket, and then bring it to Europe. This is not what I'm talking. I am talking about real. You need a pricing around EUR 250 per ton of CO2 savings. Under this price, no new capacity will come on stream. So that is my assumption, that the price minimum will be at EUR 250, and if the demand with the higher quotas will grow faster than the supply, because now we are lagging in investments.
I also see the possibility that we are going on to EUR 350-400 per ton of CO2 savings, but that will be some short term. I don't say that we will never see again 400 or 500, but the long-term commodity price is somewhere in that range of EUR 250-300.
All right. Thank you so much. And another question in our chat box is, are there any updates on LATAM, especially on Brazil?
No. Right now, there are no updates, nothing what can be disclosed, but we are in constructive discussions with big players in Latin.
All right. Can you please give more information about the government investigation into Chinese certificates? What do you expect some results to be published?
I have no insight, no inside information. I know just that the investigation is going on. Something was found, and I think it has to go on. And finally, I would be also interested now—the volumes went down, companies disappeared. So I think it's quite obvious that there was some fraud. And I would like, and this is interesting for me, I would like to know if the European Commission is really retroactively canceling CO2 savings, which were not achieved, if they are really going that way, or if they just stop here and say, "Okay, now we change the rules. We will implement stricter regulation and certification." That is something what is interesting.
I think the effect, and that was what we wanted to achieve mainly with the noise we were making, so that the volumes go down to a reasonable level, and this is the level in 2021, even not 2022, because 2022, also palm oil methyl ester was coming through China to Europe. Since January 2023, palm oil is out in Germany completely. So I even see it under the level from 2021, and right now, I think that is some success. But the more interesting question for me is, what is with the fake greenhouse gas savings from these parties, which were identified to be fraudulent?
Great. Thank you. And, Mr. Lillemann would like to know if you could please explain a little bit more detailed, which company went bankrupt, and the system was selling quotas?
There were some companies collecting greenhouse gas savings from electricity. I think there are one or two went bankrupt, and the biggest player in the biogas segment was BMP, and BMP was a daughter company from EnBW. That was also in the newspaper. Something was written there that we are talking about the bankruptcy in the level EUR 500 million-EUR 750 million, so quite significant. They were one of the biggest player in the biogas segment.
All right. Thank you so much. I was not sure, so there was a short, raised up hand from Mr. Morsberger, but now it's, gone. So, with this, I would say we would come to today's, to the end of today's earnings call. Thank you everyone for joining, listening, and for your shown interest. And as well, a big thank you to Mr. Sauter and Mrs. Köhler for the presentation and the time you took to answer all these questions. Should, further questions arise at a later time, please do not hesitate to contact Investor Relations or us. So and with this, I say goodbye. Thank you, and hand over again to Mr. Sauter for some final remarks.
Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you very much to all the participants. It was a pleasure to talk with you today. I think, we are in very interesting times, more normal times than the years before. Anyway, I'm very positive. The demand in green molecules everywhere is increasing. I am thrilled about the development in the United States, even if not everything is gold there, what is, what glints. So it's also hard there, to find the right people, to find the right skills, but the market is huge, very professional. Yeah, not very much regulatory influence. The U.S. is defining the target, and the company who has the most efficient solution is winning the race. So for me, the most interesting and thrilling event this year is the startup of Nevada.
Once we accomplish this, we have the proof of concept, and, yeah, I think the decision for Verbio to concentrate on the U.S. market, long time before the IRA was a right decision. Anyway, it's still a way to go to find the right people, to find the right skills, the know-how, but the potential growth in the United States is, is great. Anyway, also Brazil, it was mentioned here, or Latin, Latin, Latin America, also very good, conditions, lot of biomass, cheap biomass available. So I think when I look back to the last 20 years of Verbio, especially the last 18-20 months, a lot of things have changed. The demand for green molecules in a lot of different segments, not only in transport, is increasing. So I think we are not anymore in a niche.
The green molecules are becoming adult, and we are talking about the global business with a global commodity business, and we are right positioned as Verbio there, and I think we are far ahead of anybody else who was in this segment. So I think you made the right decision to be invested in Verbio. Thank you very much. Have a nice day, and I'm looking forward to our Q2 , but even more to our Q3 conference call. Thank you very much. Have a nice day, and stay healthy.
Thank you.