Metro AG (HAM:B4B)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Feb 9, 2023

Operator

Morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome, thank you for joining the analyst and press call Q1 2022-23 results presentation. Throughout today's recorded conference, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. This time, you will be able to ask questions via call and in written form.

If you would like to ask a question, you may press star followed by one. Press the star key followed by zero for operator assistance. If you would like to submit in written, please use the webcast. It's my pleasure, I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr. Steffen Greubel, CEO of METRO AG. Please go ahead, sir.

Steffen Greubel
CEO, METRO AG

Yeah, thank you very much. Good morning here from Düsseldorf. Welcome to our METRO Q1 2022, 2023 results call. We are happy to present you our most recent business developments today. As usual, I will present the Q1 development first, and then later, Christian Baier will take over, and then we will have proper time for Q&As. What is new, and let me just reiterate that, you feel free to post your questions also in the chat during the presentation, or then ask verbally as you are used to be afterwards. Moreover, after the English-speaking part, after the Q&A session, we also reserved some time for German-speaking or German-only speaking people to ask questions that we can actually then also answer in German language.

Before we jump into content, let me give a couple of words to the situation in Turkey. I mean, as you're all aware, there is a massive or I mean, two massive earthquakes there. We are impacted because we do have 4,300 people in Turkey. We have 34 stores there, so we have a sizable operation there. Thank God, nobody from our employees is injured. Nevertheless, it's a devastating situation for the country. We have five stores in the area of the earthquake. Four of them are continued to operate with very small and light damages. There's 1 store that is currently being examined because of construction safety. Thank God, there is no major impact, at least to our people and our structure.

We are focusing now very much on giving aid and help in the moment. That means we here made a donation of EUR 200,000 to the Red Crescent. The colleagues on-site are providing structure, parking lots for help, food donations, chefs that are cooking for people.

While we are talking, I mean, there's a HR conference hosted in the moment in Istanbul, led by Christiane Giesen, our board member, responsible for HR. They interrupted the conference, and they are right now while we are talking in the Istanbul store, packing trucks with goods for aids, with food that will be deployed then in the region of the earthquake.

The entire organization obviously is with the Turkish people, and we are providing aid on-site from here, sort of, mentally and physically, if you want. That's now focus in this very moment. We hope that we can add a little bit to elevate some of the suffering at least. Let's go back to our Q1 results and what I want to talk about today. I want to talk about business environment that eases.

I want to talk about growth. We still or we see growth momentum that continues to occur also in the first quarter. I want to talk about the cyber attack that is actually temporarily impacting performance in Q1 or has impacted performance. I want to talk about sCore, where our execution nevertheless progresses substantially.

I want to talk about the financial year outlook that we are confirming. Let's directly jump into the content and talk about business environment. Number one, food inflation remains high, but it has been coming down slightly in the course of the quarter, and also this trend continues in this very moment. Inflation effects in gastronomy are lower than in food retail.

The HoReCa sector is resilient, the out-of-home consumption is stable, and the consumer confidence increases. Latest HoReCa surveys interesting show that the industry expect a growing sales and a stable to slightly positive market development in 2023, according to the Foodservice Magazine, which is very good news. The main challenge apparently is not a lack of guests, it's a lack of staff.

There is staff shortage at our clients in a significant amount. The digitalization of processes and like pre-prepared products like clean fish, pre-diced, sliced onions, meat, and so on, are key levers to really make our clients more inefficient. We are very happy to provide those things that can ease a bit the staff shortage that is apparently out there.

In this business environment, how did we actually perform? Let's look at sales first. Q1 reported sales is 7% plus against Q1 of the previous year in a reported view. The EBITDA adjusted decreases by EUR 56 million versus the Q1 previous year, also in the reported view. Apparently both figures are strongly impacted by the cyberattack.

As already shared in the financial year results, we estimate that the cyberattack had a low triple-digit million EUR impact on sales and a mid to high double-digit million EUR impact on EBITDA. Good news though is, in January, apparently we are back on track. We are back on growth. We are looking at 16% sales growth in the reported view.

That means that number one, we could regain the customers that didn't buy because of the cyberattack. We are also looking at volume gains, so we are actually back on track. The cyberattack was a temporary incident that we have overcome, and we don't see a lot of longer-lasting challenges now from that one, which is good news. We are back on track in terms of growth.

Let's look a little bit closer at the channel view. You all remember this strategic visual of the three circles of growth. Growth continues to be driven by all channels. That's the measures you need to take. Our store-based sales grew by 4%. Our FSD investments continue to pay off, with sales growing by 18%, even though the FSD, the delivery business, was more impact by the cyberattack than the stores. METRO MARKETS, as the gastronomy marketplace, sales increased by 46%, and the marketplace volume, sales has grown in all dimensions. That means we are also looking at more than 100 more vendors and sellers.

We're looking at more than 700 new brands, and we're looking at more than 50,000 new active products listed that we have actually added in the 1st quarter of that year. We see significant progress in digitalization. I was mentioning digitalization as the tool to overcome staff challenges at our HoReCa customers. The Hospitality Digital number of subscribers increased 13,000 new subscribers in Q1. That is a very healthy composition of the individual channels and of the growth.

From the channels now, let's look a little bit more in depth onto our sCore KPIs that we are reporting continuously. Let's look at sales force first. We added net 200 additional FTE in Q1, and that's making good progress towards our 2030 aim of at least doubling sales force.

Sales force, to remind everybody, is important to push FSD and to push digital, because we are moving from a pull to a push multi-channel sales and growth model. The strategic customer sales share significantly increased from 65% to 68% versus the Q1 of the previous year. The FSD sales further grew by 2 percentage points to 20%, the digital sales share grew from 7% to 8% of sales. Very nice development with own brand sales share.

It increased significantly by more than 3 percentage points to 20%. The growth continues to be driven by HoReCa and by FSD. Those are the main two channels that are adding to our own brand sales share. This is again, an all-time record, and we are looking at a very good progress towards our 2030 target.

We have a big confidence that we will even increase, even in this very year, the share of the own brand even further. Here we are very, very happy actually with the development. Very important movement here. The delivery infrastructure, we have no additional depots so far, but we have several ongoing projects that will come live in the coming quarter. It does not mean that we will not stick to our network expansion plans. It just is a matter of fact that we didn't complete any project in the first quarter of this year, but there is more to come in the upcoming quarters. Let's look a little bit more in digital sales share. What are we doing to advance the KPIs?

One of the key long-term drivers is the DISH POS rollout, as it links our customers to us and will at some point enable a direct connection also with our sales channels. DISH POS covers the complete process from purchasing to billing and enables our customers to manage and to optimize their business out of one system. There's one digital system for the gastronomy, and we are providing that now with DISH. DISH is de facto the missing piece of the puzzle regarding digitalization of gastronomy. In January, we announced this DISH POS rollout in France.

It's an very important milestone for us, because only 10 months after we have successfully acquired Eijsink in March 2022, we are now having France as the biggest, as our biggest HoReCa country, being the first country where we are doing the first steps in the internationalization. The tool was presented to a broad audience at the leading gastronomy and food event, Sirha, in Lyon. The full board has been part of the launch event. We were very impressed by the huge interest, and the customer insights from the French pilots show already a very positive feedback regarding systems capabilities and handling.

Now, like we are also doing with METRO MARKETS, also with DISH POS, you can expect two to three countries per year now being hooked up, so to say, to the DISH POS system to where we will roll out the DISH POS system to, and Germany is gonna be next. Germany is gonna be the next country for that one. We'll push that throughout Europe in the course of the next month and years. Talking portfolio for a moment. In Q1, we've also announced that the strategic decision to exit the Indian market and divest METRO India to Reliance Retail Ventures Limited have become reality.

The transaction includes the operations of 31 Indian METRO stores, representing sales of a bit more than EUR 920 million, and a low double-digit million EUR EBITDA figure, as well as real estate portfolio of overall six stores. The decision was based on the rationale that the Indian trade industry is experiencing a tremendously strong consolidation and increasing competition, which would require a sizable investment to further grow the business, thus being the right time to seize the momentum and enable METRO India into a future alongside a very strong local partner. The transaction values METRO India at an EV/Sales multiple of 0.6x based on sales of the financial year 2021, 2022, and implies an equity value of roughly EUR 300 million .

This considers lease rental and other related liabilities of EUR 150 million. After closing, we expect a transaction gain on EBITDA level of approximately EUR 150 million and a corresponding EPS gain. Both numbers are subject to exchange rates at closing. We expect the closing in the first half of the year of the calendar year 2023, following governmental and regulatory approvals. Until then, the India sales and EBITDA continues to be consolidated, and at the same time with the sale of India, we have completed the adjustment measures in our portfolio. In summary, we are very well on track towards our recently upgraded mid- and long-term targets. I am thrilled to see us turning the market opportunities and advantages of our multi-channel business model into business growth.

Thank you very much for your attention, and I will now hand over to Christian for the financial part.

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Thank you, Steffen, and good morning, everyone. Let me continue with the financial performance, and let's start with the high level KPIs. As shown by Steffen, we achieved 5% sales growth despite a low triple digit estimated impact from the cyber attack. On the EBITDA side, it declined to EUR 465 million, impacted by a mid to high double digit amount from the cyber attack. Our real estate team was able to close a very significant real estate development project in the quarter of around EUR 200 million of gain. The EPS increased to EUR 1.44 compared to EUR 0.54 is benefiting from this development and also from some non-operational effects that I will explain later on. Let's look at the details.

The overall group performance is built on strong regions, and all regions contributed to the growth except Russia. While cyber affected all regions, Germany and Russia were most impacted and this is visible in their growth rates. When we look into it more specifically, in Germany, reported sales increased by 4% versus prior year, supported by continuing execution of sCore and the strong implementation of Buy More Pay Less in more and more SKUs. This is also visible by the HoReCa sales growth and the reported sales reaching EUR 1.3 billion. The sales growth in Germany translates into an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 84 million. In the segment West, reported sales increased by 4% and reached EUR 3.2 billion. The largest sales growth was recorded in France, Italy, Spain and in Portugal. The FSD companies all grew in the double-digit range.

The reported growth rate of the segment West is adversely affected by the exit of the Belgian operations, while on the other hand, the acquisition of AGM in the course of the last financial year only partially compensated for this effect. The adjusted EBITDA in West reduced to EUR 173 million, as the strong sales development could not completely compensate the cost from the cyber attack. Especially in France and Spain, there was an impact felt. As anticipated, the expected cost inflation impacted some countries. We turn to Russia, their sales in local currency decreased by 14%, and the invasion of the Ukraine and the following sanctions affected the customer sentiment measurably in the country. Together with the cyber attack, this led to a significant decline.

Due to a positive currency development, though, reported sales increased by 11% to EUR 0.9 billion. In Russia, the adjusted EBITDA at constant currency followed the sales development and decreased to EUR 60 million. Currency adjusted, this is a reduction by EUR 45 million versus prior year. In the segment East, sales in local currency increased by 15% and almost all countries contributed to the sales growth, mostly through positive HoReCa development.

Turkey achieved the highest sales growth that was also strongly supported by inflation. The Ukrainian business continues to show very high resilience with a stable number of stores open and at sales at -20% in Q1, which is up from -45% for the comparable period in March 2022. Adjusted EBITDA increased to EUR 146 million and up by EUR 18 million at constant currency, also following the trend on the sales growth perspectives.

In the segment others, reported sales grew by EUR 31 million - EUR 51 million. It included METRO MARKETS sales of 21 million. This sales growth in the segment is mainly due to the expected growth in our digital business with, on the one hand, METRO MARKETS in Germany, Spain, Italy and Portugal, and also with our newly acquired POS provider, Eijsink. The adjusted EBITDA decreased to -EUR 2 million due to these expansion efforts and also other investments into digitization. When we turn to the market share development, since COVID, METRO has continuously developed above the HoReCa market. This positive trend is driven by METRO's strong performance on both store and delivery channels, while the market is only slowly reaching pre-pandemic levels. This trend further confirms the effectiveness and strong execution of our sCore strategy. Let's sum up.

The solid sales momentum and the successful implementation of the sCore strategy has continued. We have overall reached 5% sales growth to EUR 8.1 billion, as you can see on the P&L here. All channels have contributed to that growth. The store sales increased to EUR 6.5 billion, up by 4%. FSD sales increased to EUR 1.6 billion, up by 18%. METRO MARKETS reached EUR 21 million, which is +46% versus prior year. The sales development is generally also reflected in the earnings. However, it could not compensate the impact from the cyberattack, including additional costs for IT specialists, leading to the overall adjusted EBITDA decline. As mentioned before, in Q1, we closed a large real estate development project on our so-called campus area here around our Düsseldorf headquarter. Including the resulting roughly EUR 200 million transaction gain, reported EBITDA grew to EUR 673 million.

Given the relevance of that mentioned real estate project, let's have a quick look at some details. Swiss Life Asset Managers acquired a 73,000 sq m site in Düsseldorf from METRO to realize a comprehensive district development. The site holds significant potential from a real estate and urban development perspective. It will be a mix of gastronomy, residential and office space, applying very high ESG standards. The current METRO store on the location will be replaced by two new stores, one at the existing and one at a new location in Düsseldorf. The METRO AG and METRO Deutschland headquarters will remain at the current location and will further develop their respective areas. This project is a very good example for the future focus of our real estate strategy.

First and foremost, there, the operational business is put at the center of our thinking, this is to best support our sCore strategy. Secondly, there is a strong focus on project developments where our team can create significant value add, also from a financial perspective. When we move further down the P&L, the interest and investment result improved mainly due to one-time interest income from tax refunds as well as lower financing costs. The other financial result strongly benefited from non-cash and potentially reversible FX effects from Russian currency, this is really the opposite effect to the ones that we have seen in Q2 and Q3 last year, at that point with a negative connotation to it.

The income tax is in line with expectations. You might realize the comparatively low tax rate compared to the prior year, which is mainly attributable to the non-tax effective income in the other financial result and also on the real estate development project. As a result, earnings per share increased to EUR 1.44.

If we would adjust for the non-cash FX effects in the financial result, EPS would have been around EUR 0.90. Let's now look at the cash flow perspective. There some of the mentioned effects are also visible in that development. The operating cash flow reached EUR 168 million. That's EUR 328 million below the prior year. This relatively significant change can mainly be attributed to the working capital development and is mainly driven by two key effects.

One is the temporary inventory increase, where we are prioritizing product availability during the sCore assortment transition. On the other hand, it's also driven by increased receivables, where we have two effects. One is a bit more structural and the other one is very temporary. The structural one is we are increasing our FSD business and also showing a very solid financial profile there.

This is increasing receivables. On the other hand, due to cyber, we had some delayed collections which will be compensated in Q2. Therefore, if you look entirely at the first half of the year, we will expect a very solid development also on the working capital side. On the investment side, the investments are higher, mostly due to some Italian property CapEx that we had there.

In the coming quarters, also, as Steffen mentioned before, we will expect more and more investments to happen from our network transformation, given that this is the key capacity building program for supporting our sCore strategy. In total, when we sum up the full free cash flow for the quarter one reached EUR 115 million, and as a result of that positive free cash flow, net debt decreased again. In addition to the free cash flow, the expected METRO India disposal, and hence the first time reclassification of METRO India as an asset held for sale, has technically reduced our net debt. What does that looking forward all mean for our outlook?

We have guided that we expect 5%-10% sales growth. In the guidance view, when we adjust it from a portfolio perspective for the Belgian exit, we have reached 8% in Q1. This is a strong start to the Q1 was impacted by the cyberattack. Steffen showed, Q2, namely the January month, is trading at 16% so far. Therefore in a very positive territory. The adjusted EBITDA decline in Q1 also matches our full year expectations. Q1 is impacted by the mentioned non-recurring effects, we expect growing cost inflation, especially on the PEC side, in the course of the year. With the current status, we also foresee a further softening of the business development in Russia.

Overall, the start to the year hence matches our full year expectations for sales and EBITDA, and we see ourselves well positioned roughly in the middle of the guidance range. In addition to that, we also confirm further expectations for the year as we have outlined already in the annual press conference. The expected EUR 200 million rough real estate gains have already been booked in Q1. On the D&A net financial results and taxes side, if we disregard the non-cash FX effect, there is a very normal development underway. On the EPS side, we continue to expect EUR 0.40-EUR 0.80 before factoring in the India transaction, which is to close in the next quarters. The cash invest of above EUR 600 million for the full year is in line with our expectations and very much also with the sCore strategy.

Hence, in sum, we expect a neutral to slightly negative free cash flow and a stable net debt. This concludes our presentation today, and Steffen and I are now happy to take your questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question-and-answer session. Please note that you can submit your question in English either via call or in writing via webcast link. In the Q&A session, we will first handle questions via call, followed by the questions via webcast. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, please press star followed by two. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. If you are a journalist and you want to ask a question in German, please wait until the end of the call where we'll provide a German slot additionally. One moment for the first question, please. We have the first question from Volker Bosse from Baader Bank. Your question, please.

Volker Bosse
Head of Equity Research, Baader Bank

Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. Volker Bosse, Baader Bank. Congratulations on the current figures, given that you had to deal with the cyberattack. Great achievement. I would like to start with the EPS question, more for clarification. With Christian Baier, what is the EPS adjusted excluding the one-off? I think the EUR 0.90, which you provided as an adjusted EPS still includes the real estate

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Yeah.

Volker Bosse
Head of Equity Research, Baader Bank

Could you provide also an EPS adjustment excluding any real estate gains, please? A second question would be on the administrative expenses, which were down minus 8%. That is quite impressive. I'm asking myself how is it possible that given that we see overall cost inflation trend and given your higher headcount. Last question would be on your strategy in Russia.

Could you provide us here with any changes in your thinking about the business in Russia going forward? Also, how do you see any changes on the operations and how is it running, especially in the light of the sanctions, in the light of the capital transfer restrictions and the underlying economic trend in Russia?

With after understanding it would be great to have you more insights as it's hard to look behind the curtains here from outside. Thank you very much for all the details. Thank you.

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Great. Thank you, Volker. We'll tackle your questions. EPS, Q1, tax inflation in Russia. Very happy to do that. I think on the EPS side, you said, what is it excluding on the one-off side. Basically what we stated is we had this EUR 1.44. If you were to adjust for the non-cash FX effects, this would roughly result in EUR 0.90. Indeed, as you have mentioned, there has been that real estate transactions, which on the EBITDA side is roughly EUR 200 million. If you were to basically adjust that, although we certainly had planned and intended to do that, so the underlying business would be roughly on the PY level with respect to the EPS development, and PY has been at EUR 0.54.

I think that's a simple bridge to look at it. Certainly on the real estate side, we will for the remainder of the year compared to the prior year, will then have less real estate gains. There is a little bit of a quarterly shift in between those perspectives. With respect to Q1, there was it was not that easy to hear the question, but we understood it was mostly related around the tax development and inflation there. Certainly tax development across the year will deviate between the quarters in Q1, which is for us, obviously October to December. There has been so far a relatively limited impact.

We are now seeing from Q2 onwards, in various countries that the inflation impact is also coming into the tax perspective, where we have seen France and Spain, for example, with some adjustments. These are all in line with our expectations also from a guidance point of view. For us, it's very important that in light of that inflationary environment, and that's not only on tax but also on energy and other topics, we are very much focusing on the productivity gains which is coming from sCore, and it's part and parcel of it. We are very confident in our strategy there and in the guidance that we have given out that we are solidly in there. Steffen will now comment on Russia.

Steffen Greubel
CEO, METRO AG

We confirm our decision to stay in Russia. Apparently, we are focusing a lot, and let me put that even in front of that answer to help our Ukrainian colleagues. As you remember, we also have 3,400 people still working there. We are operating 23 stores on a continuous basis. We are one of the few work networks for food supply, not only to the population but also to sort of governmental institutions. That is our first priority, including also all form of aids you can imagine. That's our first priority. On the same hand, we are confirming that decision. As I have said, we are the argumentation was clear, and there is no update to it. We still feel responsible for those 10,000 colleagues and the customer.

We are providing basic food. Of course, we are obeying all the sanctions possible. In this very moment, we are in Russia maintaining the business. In terms of business or customer sentiment, of course, we see a tense situation there. Christian was mentioning it in his speech, because there's challenges, you know, in a macroeconomic sense there, and we also feel them. We are now managing the business accordingly, trying to adjust capacities. We are not investing in growth. We are maintaining the business. That's basically it. Christian, do you wanna add something to capital transfers?

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Absolutely. I think there, just to reiterate, of prior quarters, Russia itself, our business there is a self-sustained and self-funded business, which is operated over there. When we are talking about potential transfers from Russia into the group, basically by respecting all the sanctions, but also by aligning with the relevant authorities on all sides, we are able to also distribute funds in that perspective. From that view, we feel confident and comfortable also from a financial steering and control perspective there.

Steffen Greubel
CEO, METRO AG

Mr. Bosse, you can be assured, just the last sentence that we are continuing closely monitoring the developments there, and we are always assessing the situation basically on a continuous basis. You can be assured that we are closely watching it.

Volker Bosse
Head of Equity Research, Baader Bank

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Xavier Le Mené from Bank of America Securities. Your question, please.

Xavier Le Mené
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America Securities

Yes. Good morning, gentlemen, too, if I may. The first one, can you elaborate a bit more on the growth margin? It seemed that it was done in the first quarter, but you also have a higher penetration of your product label, which potentially could help the growth margin. Can you potentially give us, you know, the big blocks to explain the potential decline of the growth margin in the first quarter?

The second question is more about, you know, portfolio and assets you've got. You said it's the right time to leave India today, do you see other countries where potentially the competition is getting tougher, where potentially you require more investment and the decision is potentially on the table to know whether you have to stay or not? Any color here would be quite helpful.

Thank you.

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Xavier, thank you. I will go for the gross margin. Steffen will go for the India perspective. On the gross margin side, I think we see two developments. One is structural and very positive, and the other one is tactical and has been obviously that impact. I think the structural one is when we look at our development of the business with respect to the sCore strategy and the Buy More Pay Less, over time, we will see a slight reduction on the overall gross margin perspective. However, from a percentage view, but from an absolute terms, there will be a significant growth in that view, and that's exactly what sCore is about, driving this forward. Increasing significantly absolute gross margin from that view and ensuring that below gross margin we have the productivity and efficiency to translate that to the bottom line perspective.

In Q1, there has been also a bit of an impact from cyber in that view. Just to give you a bit of a sense, while all of the stores have always been operating, I think the agility and nimbleness that is required, especially in an inflation environment, to adjust prices, basically on an, on a day in, day out, and even intra-day perspective has not always been there perfect, and that has been one of the impacts from a margin perspective. We do see already now in Q1 that this is solidifying and we have that. Oh, sorry, in Q2, we have that agility very much back. Two effects, both very much explainable. The one has already evaporated in a positive manner. On the portfolio, let me reiterate, we have completed now the adjustments of the portfolio.

No, we don't see any other country we are operating in where we don't feel that with our sCore strategy and with our execution focus, we are not being able to really deliver substantial growth and substantial increase of profitability to the entire group. That has been completed now. Let me also give one or two remarks on India. It's not only the high competition, it shows it's also the changing of the business environment. There is massive capital inflow. There's a lot of companies that are investing EUR billions now in India. The entire market dynamics are changing. It's a very e-business driven market now. We feel, and we have done studies quite substantially to evaluate if there's any possibility for us in a risk return profile that makes sense to stay.

We came to the conclusion we rather focus on the existing portfolio, and we let then, our new partner develop that strategy. They are more equipped than we are to actually do that and also to bear the capital investments that would be required.

Andrew Gwynn
Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Thank you. That's very helpful.

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Gwynn from BNP. Your question please.

Andrew Gwynn
Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Hi, good morning. Two quick questions, if I can. Firstly, is it possible to get a bit more clarity on the cyberattack? It's obviously a big range when you talk about low triple digits impact on sales, so, you know, anyone between EUR 1 and, I don't know, EUR 350 million. Just a little bit more clarity there and also on EBITDA. The second question, just on food inflation. You mentioned it's come down slightly in January. Are you able to just put an approximate figure, not necessarily on the inflation as you see it, but maybe just change versus where it was in Q1. Thank you very much.

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Yeah, thanks, Andrew. With respect to cyber, the low triple digit on the sales side and the mid to high double digit on the EBITDA side, that's basically our estimate. Just be reminded, all stores at all times and all services have been up. However, the efficiency and effectiveness of those in the background have not been there. This also shows you that it's not entirely scientific that you can put a very specific number to it. We are very confident that the number that we are giving here is roughly that pointing out. I think it's also very important that this is now very much behind us. We have all systems completely restored since already mid and later December. From that perspective, strong development that we see in January, also free of that.

With respect to the inflation, and you specifically asked about, the delta between Q1 and then what we are seeing in January, obviously with, quite significant inflation numbers where the central banks are working heavily against, it is also that one, not too scientifically easy to look at, but we are talking about a 1-2 percentage points reduction that we are basically seeing in January. Let's see how that will further develop. Just be reminded, given that in our categories, lots of fresh and ultra fresh, we are talking, there is quite a high, volatility historically, which we now expect to come down somewhat. Again, the jury is a little bit out also from interventions from central banks there.

Andrew Gwynn
Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Okay, that's very clear. Thank you. Come back to the cyberattack. I mean, obviously there was some vulnerability in the system. How confident are you that you resolved those issues? Thank you.

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

With respect to... It was not that easy to hear, but I will just go for the rough understanding what you provided. Cyberattack has been basically hitting us in that Q1. We have had fended off very significantly in all the prior years, heavily on that side, and we have continuously invested into that area. Certainly now, with the further intensity that is out there in the market, we have been unfortunately hit in that Q1 and we are continuously and further investing into upping our game, given that this is an increasing threat across the entire industry, also from a macroeconomic perspective. That will be continuously more on our radar screen also from a resource perspective.

Andrew Gwynn
Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Okay, all very clear. Thank You very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Frederick Wild from Jefferies. Your question, please.

Frederick Wild
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Hi, yes, good morning, Steffen and Christian. Just two from me, please. When I look at those market share charts you shared, it looks like the outperformance has stalled and maybe even that the market is slightly outgrowing you in Q1 in Italy, Spain, France and Germany. Is that due to the cyberattack or is there a change in market dynamics behind that? Secondly, I was just trying to piece together the acceleration in sales growth in January. It looks like it goes above and beyond the cyberattack impact. Is there a regional mix to this? I think the comp was pretty stable in January from Q1 last year. Thank you.

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

We would attribute the sort of movements of the curve to this temporary impact from the cyberattack. If we look forward and if we also look in this very moment, we are very confident and we, with the implementation of the sCore strategy and the growth that we are seeing. We'll also, you know, continue to gain market shares and to do further important step in the consolidation of that very fragmented industry. Here we are. Judgment now is it's temporary, and we continue to grow market shares for the future.

Operator

Mr. Wild, does that answer your question?

Frederick Wild
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Perfect. Behind the acceleration in sales growth in January as well, in terms of just a more breakdown of regional and maybe category mix as well. Thank you.

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

I think when we look into the various regions, that is quite consistent if you just carve out Russia from that perspective. The acceleration is happening everywhere. We are attributing that very much to our continuous rollout on the sCore side, including all the BMPL and volume perspectives that we are driving there. The underlying strategy in our view is working out well, and this is showing in the Q1, sorry, in the Q2 and therefore January numbers over there, and we expect that to continue.

Frederick Wild
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies

Fantastic. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question via call, please press star followed by one. If you're asking your question via the webcast link, please in written. If the journalists would like to ask a question in German, please wait until the end of the call, where we will provide you a German slot additionally. We have a follow-up question from Mr. Bosse. Please go ahead.

Volker Bosse
Head of Equity Research, Baader Bank

Yeah, hi, this is.

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Thank you, Volker, for the question. With respect to the full year free cash flow, we expect a slightly negative to stable free cash flow development that's basically driven by a positive operation cash flow development. On the other hand, significantly increased investment that we would expect there fully in sync with our overall strategy perspective.

With respect to the first quarter, yes, there has been a significant different set up in terms of the working capital that's due to the mention before developments. On the one hand, the inventory that we proactively increased because during the way where we are basically redeploying our assortments in the sCore strategy, just be reminded, we are reducing the assortment, the number of SKUs. We are ensuring then by the ones that we focus on, that they are always available.

That is so very critical in the very beginning and therefore that's where we focus on, so slight increase and on the inventory side and on the accounts receivable two effects. One is on FSD, as we are growing significantly that business that's increasing. On the other hand, there have been some delayed collections. Therefore, we will see in the Q2 pretty much full reversal of that slight working capital inefficiency that we have now seen in Q1 for obvious reasons. If we then look at the entire H1, that will basically show the full cash flow and development. Although just be reminded, Q2 always is a quarter where we have structurally a negative cash flow development.

Operator

There are no further questions at the moment from the call. We switch to the written question via webcast.

Thank you very much. I will read the first question from Markus Schmitt at ODDO BHF. He has two questions. The first one is, could you please explain what is included in the line other OCF in the cash flow statement? The change year-on-year is quite material. The second one is, you have a solid cash position, though you had borrowings in the quarter. Could you please explain?

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Yes, Markus, very happy to comment on. I think on the other operating cash flow, we are talking there, basically, there is VAT refund claims that are in there, that is swinging, and that depends very much on the seasonality on certain payment dates and so on. Therefore, there is a bit of a delay from that perspective. Roughly, a mid double digit euro amount that is in there and swinging. Again, that topic will be completely resolved in Q2. Again, it's a seasonal and it also happens usually in that way. With respect to financing, we feel very confident from the overall perspective. What you're seeing there is the various and normal swings. We are continuously active in commercial paper markets continuously throughout the year.

Therefore, the borrowings that you see there is very the very normal way. Just be reminded, in March of this year, we have a bond to be repaid. As we stated in December, at this stage, we do not expect that we will do a refinancing of it. We will basically take it from our existing cash position and also the short-term perspectives and the access that we have to all those places. Just as a quick information, in December, we have also renewed our RCF, which is then EUR 1 billion, which has been done in a very good manner in a tough environment. In addition to that, we have further access to fully committed bank lines at all times.

Again, that's normal course of business, and we're very confident to fund our sCore strategy operationally and in other pieces very much with our strong financial position.

Steffen Greubel
CEO, METRO AG

Second question comes from Ulrike Dauer from Dow Jones Newswires. The question is: Good morning. One question regarding the cyber attack. Have all impacts announced hits to revenue and EBITDA been accounted for Q1, or is the financial impact spread over several quarters, and if so, how? Thank you.

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Yes. Thank you, Ulrike Dauer, for your question. With respect to the impact, yes, this is all fully reflected in the Q1, in terms of the operational effects, but also the remediation perspectives. What is important, that does not only apply to us, but also applies to other companies in the future, while we did have significant investments in the past into that direction, we will certainly deploy continuously in a business as usual way more into that direction. That's just a normal part of our IT upgrading and IT transformation perspective. Quick answer on your question, yes, all relevant effects covered in Q1, yes, longer term, even stronger focus on that overall.

Steffen Greubel
CEO, METRO AG

There's one more question from Matthias Inverardi from Reuters. The question is: Could there be a potential CEE expansion after the Košić deal? Could Košić expand into Germany as well?

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Let me take that one. Thank you for the question, Mr. Inverardi. Regarding our coverage of CEE with our normal, I would say normal, in parentheses, METRO/MAKRO operations, we are fully covering CEE to my knowledge. Right. I'm just going through the map mentally, but I think we are there everywhere. Number two, the expansion of Košić is very much focused on Eastern Europe. There is no current plan that the expansion will come to Germany.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you are journalists and you would like to ask a question in German, you may do so by pressing star and one. Seems to be no further questions. I hand back to Dr. Steffen Greubel.

Steffen Greubel
CEO, METRO AG

Yeah. Thank you very much for the participation and for your questions. We speak to you in three months, for the next update. I wish you all the best and stay safe, healthy, and go out eating. Goodbye.

Operator

We did receive one question, Mr. Greubel. Would you like to take it?

Christian Baier
CFO, METRO AG

Let me think. Yes.

Operator

Okay, one moment.

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