Alma Media Oyj (HEL:ALMA)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 16, 2023

Elina Kukkonen
EVP of Communications and Brand, Alma Media

Welcome to this interim report session of Alma Media's Fourth Quarter and the Full Year 2022. My name is Elina Kukkonen. I'm responsible of the Alma Media's communications and brand. We will begin with the presentation shortly. As usual, first to go on stage is our CEO, Mr. Kai Telanne. He will present the overall result of the company and the result of the each business segment Alma Career, Alma Consumer, and Alma Talent. After Kai's presentation, our CFO, Mr. Juha Nuutinen, will present the financial position of Alma Media today. After Juha, Mr. Telanne returns on stage to present the strategy going forward and also about the outlook.

We have reserved plenty of time for questions and answers, so, we are very happy to answer all your questions, both from online and also from here from Alma premises. We first take the questions here, from Alma premises and then the online questions. Feel free to ask. We are happy to answer. I think with this short introduction, once again, welcome again to follow us and, please, Mr. Telanne, the stage is yours.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

Thank you, Elina. Good morning, everybody, welcome to the interim and full year presentation on my behalf as well. We had a fantastic full year 2022, record-breaking profitability level. All the segments performed better than expected, despite the slowing down fourth quarter, where we had the revenue on par with the comparable period, and adjusted operating profit slightly below the comparison period, which was already at a quite good one on 2021. Revenue went up 12% for the full year, third consecutive year, nice revenue growth. Adjusted operating profit grew more than 20%, or to EUR 73.4 million.

As said, solid performance in all business segments and as known, our Alma Career has been the leader in this journey during two Years already. It's the biggest segment of the group at the moment. As said, the fourth quarter was a little bit slower. Revenues slightly above last year and profitability a little bit below. We had a very nice organic growth still. EBIT margin during the last quarter, 19.4%, and for the full year, almost 24%. As you might remember, our long-term target for the profitability is 25%. Gearing went nicely down to 69.3%. The balance sheet is quite healthy.

Equity ratio up to 45.88%, as expected and planned. This is the big picture of the last quarter, on par with the previous level almost in every segment. Digital business has been growing for quite a long time, as expected and that continued. The transformation is going on from print to digital, from digital to services and later on to advanced platforms. If you have a short look at the business segment and start from the Alma Career, which is leading the profitability development. The demand, despite the hard environment, has continued on labor. Partly because of that and because of our good performance, the growth has continued there.

On a healthy profitability level for the full year and for the fourth quarter as well. On the right side of the slide, you can see where the growth came from. As said, the Czech Republic is the biggest part of the business. Nice growth around 20% as well as in Slovakia and Croatia. The slowdown has come from the north, like from Finland and Baltic countries, where the labor market is tight and the underlying economies are slowing down mostly. For the full year, the revenue growth of 33.6% all-time high growth and operating profit of EUR 42.5 million, growth of 42%, a remarkable achievement in tough markets.

On top of the core business being the job listings, there's high demand for added value services as well and that has continued, like advertising to career development and staffing. That's a good sign for the efforts that we have made. We have shown this slide of invoicing revenue for you many times before just to show how those go hand in hand. Here we can see that the revenue and the invoicing are at the high level still in the fourth quarter. That's a good sign for the start of the year as well. The tight labor market has meant the visitor base to be quite tight.

From here, you can see that we had less visitors because of low unemployment rate in Central Europe. We had more users with job alerts and a number of job paid job ads, which is of course the reason behind the good figures here of revenues and of course the profitability as well. In order to keep the good development, we have had to market a little bit more than we used to be before. The cost side is a little bit on a higher level in order to guarantee the good visitor base and the customer base in the services also this year and in the future. Alma Consumer had a headwind in the Finnish market, especially on the advertising side.

The Finnish advertising has been declining during the 4th quarter. The full year result is really good. We're really happy about that. Half of the business is media business. Of course, if the advertising market is declining, our business is declining because our market share is so high. 37% of the digital advertising is from Alma Media. If the market is declining, we will suffer off of that as well. For the full year, 10% growth in revenues and on a good profitability level. We have quite many product development projects here, new initiatives in order to be more and more competitive in the markets, especially on the marketplaces, on houses and premises, and cars.

later this year, you will see we have announced some of the new initiatives and more is to come. There is an extra load of course at the moment to product development, ICT and marketing as well. Iltalehti has been very successful in attracting readers, as we know. Of course, the environment is favorable for news and there's a very good reader base, and we can use the good traffic in Iltalehti all over the company, so we can deliver the readers to talent services and to our marketplaces as well. That's part of the synergy and actually vital part of the synergy in Finnish business, in our case. Iltalehti Plus has been really successful in subscriptions.

Uh, in Iltalehti Plus, we have more than forty thousand subscribers at the moment and growing. Um, uh, digitization more than eighty-two percent at the moment, uh, uh, wh-which is a sign of the good transformation and, and, and, and, and, and, and the, the market is, uh, moving or, or developing in favor of us in, in, in that sense as well. Of course, we have some extra costs on the print side because the print cost, the paper costs, and delivery costs are, are rising. But on the other hand, the, the print part is declining, uh, uh, in, in our case, and, and we are, uh, able to quite nicely to mitigate the, the increasing print-related costs with the good growth of digital businesses. And then, uh, last but not least, Alma Talent, very good performance in, in, in difficult markets.

As said before, we are suffering from the lack of IPOs in the market which is an important part of the advertising in Kauppalehti especially. Of course, the new car business being on a low side for the full year, we have been lacking in Talent, especially on new car advertising quite a lot. Otherwise, a very good performance on circulation side, on service side, business-to-business services and recurring revenues on B2B data related services growing nicely. One of the key parts of the strategy of Talent Group, as we know, is to grow on the B2B services.

On the right side of the slide, you can see that the service part is really important from a revenue point of view, especially on a profitability point of view. Half of the business of Alma Talent is media related businesses. The other part is services, different kind of services, including the direct marketing, which is quite stable business on a healthy profitability level. I would say that 20.5% even during the fourth quarter of profit is decent, really happy of that profitability. Almost 60% at the moment from digital sources and growing. That's the very brief outlook of the full year 2022 and fourth quarter.

Maybe Juha, our CFO, Juha Nuutinen will continue with the finances like the balance sheet. I will continue after him with the outlook and those. Please, Juha.

Juha Nuutinen
CFO, Alma Media

Thank you. Thank you.

Yeah, about the financial position, first about the net debt issue. Like we have discussed earlier, we will decrease our net debt level with EUR 10 million-EUR 20 million per quarter. Now at the end of last year, we had EUR 143 million net debt level totally. We're paying, term loan back with EUR 20 million. We are in a good situation and our balance sheet are going stronger and stronger after each quarter. Our equity ratio is 46% and we estimate that it will be over 50% at the end of this year. This is going as expected and planned. Cash flow is, we have strong cash flow. It's almost EUR 80 million.

Operating cash flow is almost EUR 80 million for the last year. The cash flow was decreased at the end of Q4, and slightly because of higher working capital and higher taxes. This was also planned and expected because our customer advance payments has been exceptionally high in the earlier quarters in 2022, so it was expected that it will be slightly going down in the last quarter. It's still at a strong level. CapEx investments we have also quite high. Last year, EUR 13 million totally. There is one leasing agreement in Czech.

We made a new premises and we made a new leasing agreement and the effect was EUR 3.5 million, and that was one explanation with the higher CapEx. Excluding this leasing liability, there is still a EUR 10 million CapEx level and we have made a lot of investments in our marketplace units, especially in housing and car segments. Normally, we have this EUR 5 million-EUR 6 million yearly CapEx level, but this last year was slightly different for that aspect. We had made also one acquisition, business acquisition in December. We bought this business premises marketplace unit, Toimitilat.fi.

The MA comes into effect in the beginning of this year, January, but we made the prepayment or the payment for that acquisition already in December, and that was EUR 2.8 million. The earlier acquisition, what we made in 2022, was the Nettix shares reacquisition. Earnings per share figure is higher perhaps than expected because there are one-off items now in this 2022 year, and it was EUR 0.20 last quarter and EUR 0.88 for the whole year. There's actually three exceptional item in last year figures. One is capital gain of Bolt shares, EUR 6 million. There are interest derivative hedging positive fair value change, EUR 5 million.

Then there was a change in contingent liabilities, EUR 4 million in this last quarter and that came mainly from the DIAS acquisition. These three items' effect is around EUR 0.17. Without those item, the earnings per share was slightly over EUR 0.70. It's good to understand why this earnings per share is higher than normal, normally it is. In the last quarter, without this change in contingent liabilities, our earnings per share was pretty much in line with the last, with the first last quarter 2021 figure. Return on equity was perhaps highest what we have had ever, almost 40%. That's I think all-time high figure what we have had.

The return on investment was 19%. These are really strong figures, I would say. Our dividend or our board's suggestion for dividend is EUR 0.44. It's EUR 0.09 higher than last year. It's approximately 50% from the earnings per share and our dividend policy is that we will pay 40% or higher from the earnings per share. That's the logic there. Our long-term financial targets, we have not changed them. Revenue growth target we have had is 5%. These two years has been exceptionally good here and last year figure was 12%. Still, this 5% in the long run is good target level.

Operating margin target we have set one year and a half ago was 25%. We were pretty close last year 22%. 24%, sorry. It's slightly under our target level, but still really good operating margin level as a whole, 24%. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, we have said that we should keep the level under 2.5, and last year we had is the level it was 1.6. We are under that level and it's in that aspect we are in a good situation from that point of view. Overall we don't have no necessary or need to change those long-term targets. They are pretty good KPI figures at the moment in our case.

The operating environment, and perhaps Kai would continue and say some words about the guidance.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

Sure. Thank you. How to continue from this. These are the four main things that we follow carefully around the environment. Of course, there are many other things, of course, but the underlying economies, of course, affect to our businesses in every country. The growth seem to decelerate in all operating countries at the moment. Digitalization continues to change the consumer behavior. That means that the expectations to our services are increasing: easy to use, time-saving, safe digital experience is needed. We are developing our businesses towards that, it's kind of towards this kind of advanced platforms, as we say. Regulatory environment is complex and digital legislation is increasing, so that's a burden for us, of course.

We need to be very careful with the regulation and the data privacy issues as well, but we are well in that. Of course, the Russian aggression seem to continue, unfortunately. We have to live with that, and we can live with that. The uncertainties is going to continue, unfortunately. As said before and disclosed, we don't have any direct issues or effects from the Ukrainian crisis because we don't have businesses in Ukraine or Russia. The effects are indirect in our case.

We have a fresh forecast for European Commission of the economies in our market areas saying that the GDP growth in every country is going to slow down as we all know from the news. After the third quarter, the view was that the slowdown is not that big like being around half of the previous growth. Now it seems that all the markets are more or less close to zero growth this year. The idea or the view seem to be that the first part of the year will be difficult and then after that, the situation will ease up. That's our view as well. The first part of the year is.

It might be difficult, things will get better. As seen here, we are close to zero, and that's of course a bad sign for advertising businesses because if companies are careful and there's not demand for the services, there will be less advertising. Luckily, we are not dependent on advertising in Eastern European countries where we are only in employment business, recruitment business. In Finland we are suffering from the difficult market of course. Luckily, we are on the least declining businesses like digital business more or less. Inflation seem to be high still, maybe slowing down and hopefully slowing down. This year will be difficult still.

The current forecast is saying that we are between like 4%-12% depending on the country. That's of course too much. The interest rates seem to be increasing and getting higher still with this kind of inflation rate a little bit. The good thing is that the unemployment rates are not going to increase, which means that the labor markets will be quite tight in Europe, especially on the skilled labor where we are in. It seems that there's not a big change in unemployment in our markets. That's a good basis for the Career business of ours. As seen the invoicing, i.e.

sales is increasing still in our case, and we expect that to continue. Maybe a little bit slowing down the growth, but it's still growing. That's good. In terms of the Finnish advertising market, this is the big picture, an unfortunate picture. The rest of the year has been a disappointment. The market is declining. Our market share on digital advertising has grown. We are... our share is 37%, so we have performed very well on a declining market. That might take some time to change. I mean, not our market share, but the Finnish market. We have quite a good plan and high targets, but there's this kind of depression in the advertising market. The advertisers are careful.

They are waiting for the demand to increase and the time to increase the advertising investments as well. The newspaper advertising were in December 15% down. In our case, that doesn't hurt us very much, but the digital advertising was also down in December, which is not a good sign of course. I have two slides of two important markets, underlying markets of ours. Meaning, houses and premises because we are the market leader in marketplaces and then on the other hand the cars. I start from the houses and premises, and this is the picture of last year's market.

On the left side of the slide, you can see the housing market sales of used apartments and new apartments saying that during the full year, used apartment sales 17.5% down and during December almost 51% down. Not a very good development. For the new apartments even worse, almost 50% down for the full year and 67% down during the last month. We have performed in a declining market very good, very well. We were on par compared to the last year with the listings, meaning supply. There is demand for the listings of course, the companies, the agencies and the people, they want to sell their apartments.

There's a lack of demand maybe primarily because of the jumping interest rates. People are, you know, scared about the interest rates. Of course, the inflation is one, and then the energy crisis is the third one. That's the combination of these maybe. The demand and searches are down around 20% during the full year. There's less movement and activities in the market. The local association KVKL had disclosed that we are at the moment 11% below the 5-year average figures, which of course can't continue very long. There will be a pent-up demand after the first part of the year, and if this continues the full year, there is...

there will be a huge demand of apartments, houses and premises and those in coming months. The same picture from the mobility services and mobility markets. New car sales down 17% for the full year, but easing up during December. During the rest of the year, -5%. Around 10% for the used cars. In our services the similar development on sold cars, like around 10%, little bit less during the last quarter. The car business is going to develop. It has started to develop. There has been this kind of production bottlenecks for the new cars as we all know.

This is constraining the industry of course and that will ease up as we have heard the situation will get better. That's the case. In our case as we have disclosed both marketplaces for the houses and premises and the car marketplaces have grown on a good profitability level in our business. Okay. What do we expect for the year? We are gonna continue with the strategy that is set up. It's stable. We're gonna continue transforming the businesses still. 20% print business that will transform to digital. At the end of the day, fully digital.

We're gonna develop our current core marketplaces businesses towards advanced digital platforms, with a good cooperation inside the company using the visitor base of the group and to maximize the synergies. We will grow in digital with the new revenue streams and continue with the internationalization of the business. That's what we do. Our strategy is well aligned with the sustainable business. As said before, Alma Personnel is fully committed to our ESG targets, which we actually performed really well. We achieved 90% of our ESG targets last year. Completely, almost completely achieved. And we have incentivized all the personnel to reach the targets. Environmental targets, social responsibility targets or good governance targets, that is really important for us.

At the moment, we have a nice portfolio, well-balanced portfolio, as you can see from here. Three segments, evenly distributed revenues, more or less around EUR 100 million or a little bit more of a good profitability level. That's a very good starting point or continuing the journey that we have led for quite a long time. Very strong market position in the areas where we have decided to be, like recruitment, houses, vehicles, machinery, financial professional media, commercial premises, digital advertising and news media. That has been the target then, and we're gonna continue and keep the good position here. To summarize the Q4, good performance in turbulent environment. Unfortunately, the turbulence will continue.

We have been able to increase the registered users, which will be really important for any media company and especially for us to grow in advertising, to grow in services. We have reached new digital milestone in Alma Talent as well as in Iltalehti with Iltalehti Plus, ending up to 80% of revenues from digital services. We have quite big new initiatives, investments and process engineerings one would say, in Career United that will end up to a very modern platform in recruitment and recruitment-related services with high efficiency. At the moment that is going on, we started that last year and now we are in good speed at that.

That will end to more effectiveness, meaning cost initiatives there. We will be more effective than before. We have quite a high target there. Then of course we have a major investment in ICT in Consumer and Talent as well, especially in Consumer segment at the moment on houses and premises and cars and related services. There's a little bit extra burden on the cost at the moment, but we will enjoy the results later of this. You will hear more news about the new initiatives during the year. Outlook refreshed.

We expect our full year revenue and adjusted operating profit to remain at last year's record high level or decrease a little bit. That depends very much on the underlying economies to develop. We estimate that the first half of the year might be difficult because we have quite a high cost on Career and Consumer especially. But then the rest of the year will be better. The cost effectiveness initiatives will be in place and the profitability will be better. The estimation of ours is that the good demand of the recruitment services will remain strong. The labor market are tight. There's a good demand still.

The question mark is only Finland and Baltics, which actually doesn't have that big effect on our revenue as we know the share of those is decent. Then the operational efficiency measures that we have initiated and already started will improve the profitability on the latter half of the year. That's the idea at the moment and the view at the moment. All right, that was the message this time. Now we are more than happy to answer your questions, whatever they might be.

Petri Gostowski
Equity Analyst and Head of Research, Inderes

Thank you, Petri. Petri Gostowski from Inderes. Starting with Career and the services growth there. If you talk about the overall growth in services in 2022, is there some business that's growing more than others or is it balanced?

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

Like over the core business? Now Jobly is one, and then the advertising, the recruitment related advertising is. Those are the biggest ones. Jobly is the learning business. Those are the ones that are growing. We have Vesa-Pekka Kirsi here, the leader of the segment. If you want to continue or add on, you can do that.

Vesa-Pekka Kirsi
EVP of Alma Career, Alma Media

Bit of a context. Services are about 10% of overall Alma Career revenue, and it has remained 10% throughout the growth. Within the 10%, as Kai already pointed out, the education services are the biggest growth, but at the same time we are growing elsewhere as well. The growth of that group in itself is as steady as the growth of the whole business.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

Yeah.

Petri Gostowski
Equity Analyst and Head of Research, Inderes

Continuing on that, I mean, you talked about Seduo and it taking it to new markets. Is there some special country that is showing good traction under Sedo or is it more broad?

Vesa-Pekka Kirsi
EVP of Alma Career, Alma Media

At the moment, we are in three countries. In Czech Republic, the first country, Slovakia, the neighboring, the second country. We started with Poland in the beginning of 2022. Poland is our newest country, and we're growing there well, as a start first year. Our biggest growth percentage-wise last year came from Slovakia, euro-wise from Czechia, as we are biggest there still.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

Yeah. As said, the newest one is Poland, so it's on an investment phase, so to say. We invest and market the service and also the revenues will come later. Polish market is huge compared to the other markets that we are in, so we can expect that if we succeed there, that will be a nice business.

Petri Gostowski
Equity Analyst and Head of Research, Inderes

Thank you. Continuing with the revenue side, if we look at the growth of marketplaces, especially on mobility, I mean, you said, car sales volumes are down in Nettiauto.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

Yeah

Petri Gostowski
Equity Analyst and Head of Research, Inderes

... despite that you're growing. Can you comment, is there some pricing impact in the 2022 growth of the marketplaces? Have you hiked prices or is this coming this year?

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

No, we would say, as said, the volumes were on a par with the previous year's level, and the revenues have grown, so we have increased prices. Of course, with the inflation, our costs are increasing and we need to do the price increases hand-in-hand with the inflation, of course. That's the big picture.

Petri Gostowski
Equity Analyst and Head of Research, Inderes

Thinking about CapEx, obviously there were clearly reasons why 2022 CapEx was higher, but, thinking about 2023, can we expect a normal EUR 6 million-EUR 7 million CapEx?

Vesa-Pekka Kirsi
EVP of Alma Career, Alma Media

Yeah. We will come back to that normal level. More or less, yes. Not EUR 10 million or EUR 13 million or more.

Petri Gostowski
Equity Analyst and Head of Research, Inderes

On the current year, you and your peers have said that you expect a slowing advertising market. I guess this is based on the fact what you've seen probably in January and then, and part of February. Can you give any more comments on is... What kind of decline are you seeing? Are we talking about like 5% in advertising or more or less?

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

We don't know yet. We don't know yet. We don't have the figures. It's really difficult to estimate the market development because there are some big differences with the different medias like print business. We don't have actually the touch of the print business at the moment, or nor the TV business. We are not in... Digital business is our biggest part. We, as we expect that the first part of the year will be difficult. The customers are, you know, they want to see what happens with the demand. That's more the thing.

They want to advertise. They haven't seen the change of the demand yet because of the shock of the war and the interest rates and the inflation and all those factors. The market has to show some kind of development in the demand before the advertising starts to go. We have a very good discussion with the customers, with the advertisers, good relations with them. We understand their problem and the pain that there is in the market, but that will ease up at the end of the day. There's willingness to come out with the advertising. No doubt about that.

Petri Gostowski
Equity Analyst and Head of Research, Inderes

All right. Thank you.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

Thank you.

Elina Kukkonen
EVP of Communications and Brand, Alma Media

Moving on to online questions, unless there are any. Nope. We have only one just so there's plenty of opportunities out there in online community to ask questions. Sami Sarkamies wants to know about the labor strikes, and, let me quote, "About labor strikes now and in the past, have you noticed faster transformation from sort of classic to digital services after strikes? Are interferences in delivering newspapers/magazines de facto good for you? Thank you.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

No. Not really. If I understood correctly, like with the AKT, in Finnish, AKT, the strike doesn't affect on newspaper or magazine delivery. I think I'm right.

Vesa-Pekka Kirsi
EVP of Alma Career, Alma Media

There are some problems.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

There are some problems.

Vesa-Pekka Kirsi
EVP of Alma Career, Alma Media

Finnish post.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

Okay. There are some problems with the Finnish post that I heard. According to our experience, those strikes haven't, you know, affected heavily on the transformation. Would say that not really. It's more about the long-term development of consumer habits to change, what we have seen.

Elina Kukkonen
EVP of Communications and Brand, Alma Media

Right. Well, that's it.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

Thank you.

Elina Kukkonen
EVP of Communications and Brand, Alma Media

No more questions.

Kai Telanne
CEO, Alma Media

In that case, I will thank you very much. If you don't have any other questions, we are, of course, available anytime if you have any questions. Here you can see the upcoming events that we have in the calendar, like the annual general meeting, the 4th of April, and then the first quarter interim report on Friday, 21st of April. You are more than welcome to these events. Thank you very much. I hope you all have a nice rest of the week and good start of the year.

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