Good afternoon, and welcome to KONE's third quarter earnings call. My name is Natalia Valtasaari. I'm Head of Investor Relations here at KONE, and I'm very pleased to be joined by our President and CEO, Henrik Ehrnrooth, and by our CFO, Ilkka Hara. As usual, Henrik will start the presentation by going through the main highlights of the quarter, as well as what we're seeing in our markets. Before handing over to Ilkka, he will also talk about the leadership transition that we announced earlier today, which of course is super exciting news. Ilkka will then go through the financials in a bit more detail, and Henrik will round off by speaking about our business and market outlook for the year, as well as sharing some initial thoughts on 2024. Then it's time for your questions and answers, and I'm expecting an active discussion as always.
So please do limit yourselves to one question, one follow-up. That way, as many people as possible have the opportunity to ask questions. And then finally, before I hand over to Henrik, one reflection from me. So I think you've probably noticed by now, at least to you who have gone through the material, when we announced our new operating model, we at the same time changed our business names to better reflect their nature. So we now have our three businesses, New Building Solutions, Service, and Modernization, and those names have been reflected into reporting as of Q3. So that was a bit of a technical note. But with that, Henrik, please.
Thank you, Natalia, and a warm welcome to this webcast. As Natalia already said, we have today some good news and some exciting news to share. If I go straight to the highlight, highlights of the quarter. W hat I'm very happy about is that we had another excellent quarter in our performance in both service and modernization. Strong top-line growth in both, and that is incredibly important. It's just that makes us more and more resilient all the time. We also had a fantastic quarter in China. We really had strong momentum in orders in a market that we know is challenging, but also we're able to capture good opportunities in India, Middle East, which are two of the most important growth markets right now, and both markets where KONE has a strong leadership position.
So all of this resulted in a stable development in our orders received, which I think is a really good achievement, given the backdrop, considering markets and construction markets globally right now. So overall, I'm pleased with our Q3. So as usual, let's start with our key figures for the third quarter. As I mentioned, highlights really stable orders received and strong growth in service and modernization sales. So orders received just shy of EUR 2 billion, increase of 0.3% in comparable currencies. So happy that we're able to get that to a positive number. We continue to have a very solid order book of EUR 8.8 billion, that is down 3.7% in comparable currencies. As we can see everywhere, foreign exchange translation has quite a big impact on the numbers this quarter.
Sales at just over EUR 2.7 billion, now down 1.4%. Good growth in service and modernization, but clearly, new building solutions down. Also, profitability improved, now really no difference between operating income and Adjusted EBIT, but Adjusted EBIT improved from EUR 306 million to EUR 316 million, and our margin from 10.2% to 11.5%. So the consistent profitability improvement that we are on path of continued. Also, solid cash flow of EUR 342 million for the quarter. Now, as we all always say, one quarter is a short period of time. Now, we also have nine months behind us, so three quarters of the year. And if we look at performance here, it's really about sales growth and profitability improvement.
Orders received for the first nine months EUR 6.5 billion, down 4.6%. So you probably remember, we had a slight decline in Q1, then a little more in Q2, and now, better performance in Q3. Sales, EUR 8.1 billion, up 6.5%, and operating income, or particularly Adjusted EBIT, up 25% from EUR 712 million to EUR 890 million, and two percentage point improvement in margin from 8.9 to 10.9. So again, consistent profitability improvement, which is, of course, something we're driving and we are well on track of. Cash flow from operations, a good EUR 1.1 billion for the first nine months, a clear improvement from last year, and that I'm happy about, and also EPS up 30% to €1.26.
I must say that I'm really pleased with these numbers for the quarter. We have to remember that as of first of July, we all implemented our new operating model, where, of course, we changed the structure of our organization, and a lot of people had new roles. In that environment, we have continued a strong performance that again talks volumes about the commitment, about the mindset, and motivation of KONE's team, and that, of course, very grateful for.
Now, in the quarter, we had some announcements, and I start with announcement within KONE, which is that Axel Berkling, who has been on the executive board since 2016, in various different roles, leading our Asia business outside of China, leading our European business, and last, as head of our strategy and transformation organization, now became Executive Vice President of Commercial and Operations. Very happy to have Axel in that role with his long and very solid track record at KONE. Also, today, our board of directors made a decision and announced that Philippe Delorme has been appointed CEO KONE as of January 1, 2024.
As many of you probably noticed, on the second of October, we announced that I had informed the board that I will leave my role at KONE in the first half of next year, after, at that point, 10 years in this role, and I felt it was the right time to start thinking about next steps in my life. Now, the board today appointed Philippe, which I'm very happy about. Philippe has a very illustrious career for over 25 years at Schneider Electric. Many different roles, many different geographies. I think actually the majority of his career, he's worked in Asia, he's worked in North America, of course, in Europe. He's French, and was last head of Europe operations at Schneider Electric, and part of their executive committee from 2009 to 2023.
So, definitely a very digitally focused, sustainability focused, technology focused, leader, customer-focused leader. So happy to hand over a strong team and KONE business to Philippe on first of January. I will remain around to ensure a smooth handover. I will remain around until end of March, and of course, travel a lot with Philippe, introduce him to the KONE business, and make sure things continue in a smooth and great way. So that was announced today as well. With that, let's turn into market development. How are overall markets developing? And let's start for markets for new building solutions in the third quarter. We know that, markets in, North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and China are impacted by clearly slower construction activity.
It is clear that increased interest rates are impacting these markets, and economic environments are impacting these markets quite clearly. So North America, we saw a significant decline from a high base. Europe, Middle East, and Africa, same thing I said in Q2: the further north we go in Europe, the more challenging situation. Nordic region, Germany, further south, a little bit better. If you go to Middle East, actually a good situation, strong growth in those markets. China market continued to decline at about 10%. On the other hand, rest of Asia-Pacific, driven by India, Southeast Asia, really nice growth in both India and throughout Southeast Asia. So that's where there are good growth opportunities. At the same time, we know that our service and modernization markets are developing very positively.
Service is growing at its trend rate in all markets, North America, EMEA, good growth in China, very good growth in rest of Asia-Pacific, and also modernization markets continue to be strong. So growth in North America, Europe, Middle East, and Africa, and then good growth in China and rest of Asia-Pacific. So it's really interesting to see how positive the markets are and the continued opportunities we see there. So clearly, a lot of focus for KONE to capture growth in these markets. If I then touch a little bit more on China, it's clear that the weak consumer sentiment continues to impact the market. I would say there are really two challenges in China. It's about consumer sentiment, confidence, and the second is continued tight financing situation for developers, which means that difficulty to buy land, difficulties to drive business forward.
It is clear that when the market is declining, it's a very price intense market. At the same time, costs are coming down in, in China. Perhaps what it continues to be positive is that there is a continued focus on completing unfinished projects. As we all know, there continues to be a huge base of buildings that are in progress, and there continues to be, focus on the authorities to complete this, so that will continue to be a tailwind going into next year. And service and modernization markets continue to be very robust. So as we look at all the statistics, we can see that they continue to be quite a negative territory, except for completions, if we look at, year to date. So overall, the outlook for China is very much intact of what we have looked at.
However, pulling all of this together, how do we think about the KONE business today? You know, after our introduction on new operating model, the way we think about our business is we have four geographic areas: North America, EMEA, China, and rest of Asia-Pacific. In each, we have three businesses: new building solutions, service, modernization. So four times three, there are 12 markets that we are following, and businesses that we are following very closely. When I look at this from market backdrop, out of these 12 markets, nine are growing. And even where EMEA is declining, there's growth in Middle East. So we continue to be in a really, really good industry, because majority, well over half of the business that we look at, the markets behind them are growing.
We can also see that our business mix is going in this direction, that our weight of service and modernization continues to increase. But this is so important. This is where we are focused to drive growth, because there are plenty of growth opportunities in this industry, despite some challenging construction markets in North America, Europe, and China. Most markets are growing, and that is where we keep our focus and why we continue to have good growth opportunities next year and in the coming years. So with that, as usual, I'll hand over to Ilkka to review a little bit more our financial performance.
Thank you, Henrik, and also warm welcome on my behalf to this third quarter results webcast. I'll review the financials as normal in a bit more detail, starting with orders received. Orders received for the quarter were EUR 1.99 billion. Decline on a reported basis of 7.7%, as the currencies on a translation basis had a large negative impact to this quarter. On a comparable basis, as already highlighted by Henrik, we did see growth of 0.3%. Geographically, EMEA was stable. Very happy to see our good performance in modernization being able to mitigate the more difficult NBS market.
Then in Americas, we did see decline in our orders received, but also there, our modernization volume business, which really is the bread and butter of the business, did grow, and majority of the decline in orders received actually came from major projects overall, and they tend to vary quarter by quarter, and our last year's comparison point was quite high. In APAC, we saw our orders growing, and majority of that was driven by good performance in China, where our orders received value grew almost double-digit. So very good performance in the quarter in a very challenging market in China with our team. From a margin perspective, we continued to see positive development in our orders received margins. Year-on-year, they improved, and they were stable quarter-on-quarter.
Key driver for this in the rest of the world was a continued good focus on pricing. In China, the driver was more the reduction in our component and input costs, which were supporting our margin development. But overall, I consider the stable development in this environment to be a very good outcome for the quarter. To sales. For the quarter, our sales were EUR 2.75 billion. On a reported basis, decline of 8.3%, and on a comparable basis, a decline of 1.4%. And as Henrik, Natalia already highlighted, so, so now with our three new business lines, so New Building Solutions, was declining 13.6%. And of course, now in sales, we have the high comparison point post the lockdown measures in China, impacting the outcome here.
Clearly, services was one of the highlights for the quarter, in terms of sales growth, 9.2%. Very strong performance again. But clearly now, again, modernization at 18.3% was, the highlight, from a sales growth perspective. Very good performance, both service and modernization. Geographically, strongest growth in Americas, 14.5%; EMEA growing 6.7%; and Asia Pacific, including China, declining 15%, and I already talked about the impact of China, last year. Then to Adjusted EBIT and profitability. Our Adjusted EBIT for the quarter was EUR 316 million. We saw growth on our absolute result, but also we continued to see our margins expanding from 10.2% to 11.5%.
This time, with a decline in sales, our growth had a negative impact, but profitability improved, driven by services and modernization sales growing strongly, both absolute number contributing to it, but also mixed positive impact to our profitability. We continued to see improved price cost dynamics on our deliveries as we were delivering those orders that continued to have better margins. At the same time, we did have fixed cost absorption being lower, and we continued to see inflation overall impacting our operating expenses negatively. To conclude, from my perspective, cash flow, which for the nine months of this year was EUR 1.1 billion. Main driver for improved cash flow has been the increase in our operating income, and our net working capital has continued to be broadly stable compared to last year's end. We continue to see positive impact from accounts receivable.
In this environment, the focus on collections, managing your credit risk, is very important. At the same time, this quarter, accounts payable actually contributed negatively, so the timing of the payables now this time was more in this quarter than normally. And then I said the biggest difference between the year-end and current net working capital actually is the impact of currencies, which is close to EUR 30 million. So with that, we're very close to being stable from that perspective. And I think from a cash flow perspective, we continue to see positive development for the business. But with that, I'll hand over to Henrik for market and business outlook.
Thanks, Ilkka. Market outlook, that is, unchanged from our second quarter for this year. So the market for new building solution, we expect that, China will decline between 10% and 15%, in 2023. This is exactly the same thing we said in Q2, and we know that policy actions continue to be very important to a recovery of that market. Rest of Asia Pacific, continued good development, clear growth there, and clear decline than in Europe, Middle East and Africa, and, and significant decline in North America. So very much what we've seen so far. Positive story, as I talked about it already, is that modernization markets are growing in all parts of the world and presenting good opportunities, something that we are very focused on. And also, service markets are continuing their trend of growth.
Actually, if you look at in, in unit, trend growth is pretty stable. In value, actually, it is probably higher than before. So they're also a good story and, something we, we focused on and capturing good growth there. Our business outlook for this year, we're reiterating it, so it's unchanged. We expect our sales to grow between 3% and 6% in comparable currencies for this year, and continue to see an adjusted EBIT margin in the range of 11%-12%. We're well on track for that for the full year. With the current exchange rates, impact of FX on EBIT would be about EUR 40 million negative. You know, we continue to have a number of things that are driving good performance for us. It is the growth in the service and modernization business.
There I continue to see really, good momentum, good outlook. We have a good order book, and all the time we're delivering better margins from that order book. That will continue into next year. Also then, particularly in China, we can see that commodity costs are coming down, and cost savings are really, coming through. What is the challenge? Clearly, declining markets in China, in New Building Solutions, also softer construction markets in Europe and North America. And I would say a third one is the persistent inflation, and we are a labor-intensive industry, labor-intensive business. We can see that salary and wage increases are having an impact, will continue also into next year, and also purchase services and things like that.
But as Natalia said in the beginning, let me give a sneak peek into 2024, just what is the high-level situation looking. Of course, the outlook in detail we'll give in January, but if we just look at what are the drivers for next year. Again, positive outlook in Service and Modernization. I cannot overemphasize how important this is to us, how much we focus there, and how that continues to be a great growth opportunity for us. Continued improvement into next year of margins of orders received, that in all the time what we deliver is better. And of course, the cost savings related to the operating model renewal will be a benefit going into next year. What is the challenge?
It's of course the continued soft outlook for new building solutions in several regions, as I think is familiar to everyone, and also this persistent inflation. It's clear that when it comes to employment costs, they are going up probably next year more than this year. At the same time, we have a business where we are, and we have shown in service we have been successful in driving prices to offset that. But it's clear that also productivity will be really critical to continue to perform well there. So overall, this is the picture as we see it going into next year. But as a summary, solid quarter for us. What I'm very happy about, that we have really strong position in the key growth markets in new building solutions right now, which is India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
We are very strong in those markets, and excellent continued performance in Service and Modernization. That is really what we're driving and what we have been achieving, and that I'm happy about. With that, we are now ready for your questions.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. Kindly limit your question to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. We will take the first question from line, James Moore from Redburn. The line is open now. Please go ahead.
Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. I wonder if I could start with China new equipment and then follow up with service.
Sure.
It looks like from the charts at the back that maybe you grew 24% or so in unit volumes. And I guess if you're high single digit in value, that the price mix must be sort of mid-double digit, mid-teens negative. And I know that you talk about the order intake margin being stable quarter-on-quarter, and I guess when we saw pricing turn so negatively a few years back, it did have a lag into the P&L, and there was a sort of China NI margin drag. Could you say anything about the China NI order received margin, and whether you're comfortable that that's broadly a wash with the input inflation? That's the first question. Maybe start there.
Yeah, let's start there. So yes, there was a negative, both mix and price, but at the same time, as you said, that actually, when we look at this very clearly, our margins of our new orders are stable. So yes, prices have come down somewhat. Not a lot, but come down somewhat. But at the same time, we've been able to work on our costs in a really, really successful way. Also, in China, you could see that, mix in terms of, what kind of products were sold, a little bit more, actually quite strong performance also for our second brand, Giant KONE, that of course had a mix. So all of these had a contribution there.
We are comfortable that, in terms of margins of our orders, they were stable in the quarter.
Yeah.
That's great. And if I could follow up on service. I mean, you, you mentioned again and again how important it is to the business a nd the opportunity. Obviously, your North American peer discloses profitability. I'm not expecting that, but if you were to give us some flavor, how are service margins over time on the, what I would call the maintenance business? Have they been very stable? Have we gone up over time? Have we fallen? Roughly, where are we in the sort of 5-10-year maintenance profitability story?
If we look from a operating profit perspective, we are constantly on a slight upward scale. It's, and as you know, that this is not the business where things change very quickly. Of course, we had the COVID years in between that, you know, were quite special, and I wouldn't compare to them. But other than that, it's a constant, slight progression upwards. And now, of course, you know, in absolute terms of the profits, clearly with the top-line growth that we're achieving, it's a really nice story.
That's really the key: that this very strong top-line growth that we've been achieving now for a few years is really what has been the key driver.
Hey, maybe to add to that, services comment. Also, now we've seen inflation being a big part of the price driving pricing up in the last, a bit more than a year or so. But I think what has changed in the last years has been that with digitalization, 24/7 connected service being really the spearhead of our offering, we've been able to see that our pricing has continued to improve in all of the markets and globally as well, despite the mix with China growing quite strongly being there. So I think that part of the equation has changed with the broader offering that we have.
Also then helped our retention, because also, you know, when we're growing that service business, we now call it service because we used to call it maintenance, but the fact is, it's broader. It's more service when we have the digital services there and other value-added services. That's why we changed the name. When we look at it, you know, it's to get to this 9% growth, it is not only pricing that is improving. We actually we have higher unit growth than we have had in the past years, better pricing, connected services contributing, and actually good repairs growth. So all of these things, and as always, for a service business, you cannot have one thing that is going.
You need to really have all of these things driving and, you know, we have a good story on all of them now.
That's really helpful. Just to clarify one thing, I understand that the EUR million operating profit will go up because of the top-line growth.
Yeah.
Are you also saying that the profitability, the percentage, has gone to a new record level?
It has slightly improved all the time. Yes.
Really helpful. Thanks.
Thanks.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line, Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. The line is open. Now please go ahead.
Hi, good, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I have a first question on China, and the second question is a clarification on the margin commentary. But, on China, just wanted to understand, I mean, when you look at yourself, unit orders basically growing over 20% versus the market, -10%. Can you help us understand how much of that is just the comps were weaker for yourself last year versus you're gaining market share versus were there any large orders or anything? This is quite a big deviation. Sorry if you've mentioned that before and I've missed it.
Yeah.
And the second question regarding the order book margins. You talk about them sequentially and versus last year, but can you talk about them relative to pre-pandemic? Where are we standing? Do we still have work to do to get back to pre-pandemic levels? And sort of like if you could guide us there, that would be great. Thank you.
Sure. So if I start with China, yeah, but clearly we had a decline last year, but also markets have declined. So I think we just had a really strong outperformance in China in this quarter, and that I'm happy about. You know, it's clear that we were not happy with our development beginning of the year, and we saw that, of course, beginning of the year. So we changed our focus a bit. Last year it was all about driving pricing. Now we have set more focus on growth, and we have also done adjustments to our how we sell our product to diversify our sales channel to reflect the changing market. And you know, we've set that ambition.
I must say, our team has done an excellent job, and really, you know, we have a good momentum there right now.
Then maybe to continue on this comparison on the margin of our orders received. Also repeating a bit what I've said already in the past. So we saw overall the fastest recovery in the margins to the levels where they used to be before the cost increases started in the modernization business. There we have been booking orders with a good margin for some time now. In new equipment business, it took a bit longer given the tender and negotiation periods, and also that's been a more difficult market. We are now booking outside of China orders with a margin that is similar level than we had before the costs start to increase. So I guess to your pre-COVID levels, as you used the language.
Then in China, we are now stable in our margins, as Henrik was saying, but they are slightly on a lower level than they used to be. But we've seen now stability and, despite the high, a good order growth, given the dynamics with pricing, but especially on the product cost savings as well as the input costs. I would highlight also the fact that it's not only the market, it's actually our actions that are driving this stability and margin of orders received as well.
So just to clarify, so back to pre-COVID, outside of China or on the group as a whole?
Back to pre-COVID level outside of China. In China, NBS, so the new building solutions, we're slightly lower than what we used to be.
Got it. Very clear. Thank you.
We'll take the next question from line, Klas Bergelind from Citi. The line is open now, please go on.
Thank you. Hi, Henrik and Ilkka. So my first question I had was on the drop-through in the bridge. I wonder, Ilkka, if you could help us with the impact from China falling this sharply out of the backlog. Obviously, even if the China new equipment margin has come down sharply from the peak, I guess it's still higher than in the rest of the world. You get a sort of a mix under absorption impact, if you like, to the margin. Could you quantify that? It's rather backward looking, given that orders in China are now improving. And also, if you could update us on the raw material and logistics impact for the year and what you saw this quarter. Thank you.
Maybe, the way I would build the bridge from my perspective is, for the quarter, is clearly that services and modernization growth contributed positively, both on an absolute basis, but also a relatively mix, profit mix is positive. Then, when it comes to our deliveries, the improved price cost dynamics contributed positively. Then where we did see some delay in seeing all of the benefits of the price cost dynamics on the orders was that actually in Americas and Europe, the construction sites progress was somewhat slower in Q3 than what we saw in the first half, where there's a bit of a catch-up effect, there.
Then in the quarter, we did have a very limited impact yet from the operating model change, savings, impacting our results. Yet, we expect that to be more visible in Q4 and then fully visible in 2024, as Henrik talked about in his outlook for 2024. Then at the same time, in the bridge, it's good to note that the overall cost inflation, of course, is a headwind. It's not only salaries, it's operating expenses overall, which are continuously inflated. And then in the quarter, as a result of this, lower NBS deliveries due to construction site progress, then the fixed cost absorption was lower.
China overall, yes, it progressed more in line with what we expected, and the key difference between the quarters this and last year was really this lockdown measures being released. So it's you should think about Q2 and Q3 as a totality rather than one quarter, because there's quite a lot of fluctuation between those two.
Okay, and okay, fine. M y follow-up was on the outperformance in China, which is great to see, Henrik. It seems like the, the equipment margin now, as you say, is more stable, otherwise you wouldn't have made the decision to focus on growth. But can we talk about payment terms as well? And there's a lot of discussions to what extent the challenges that some of the developers out there can impact your cash flow. Obviously, net working capital was actually quite stable in the quarter. But if you can talk about what you're seeing, both from a pricing and a cash flow point of view in China at the moment, t hat would be great. Thank you.
Yeah, so we've done a good job in managing our payment terms, so I thought Henrik would take it.
But all in all, so joking aside, so you saw our cash flow. It was quite good for the quarter. And what the continuous balancing act in China is this pricing and the commercial terms, managing the credit risk with the customers. And of course, it's very. You need to be very much in detail in the market, understand both the overall customers as well as the projects that you're working on. And there we continue to do a good job. We see overall that risk being managed well. Of course, it's not easy, and from a receivable point of view, it also requires very much actions being taken on the collection. But on the commercial terms, we've been very focused that, hey, that's the one thing we don't wanna give up on.
So we want to win the orders with our customers without taking the wrong risk from a credit perspective or relaxing the payment terms as a result.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from line, Miguel Borrega from BNP Paribas. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Hi, hello, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one, just on North America. Sales have been mid-teens for the last four quarters. Can you give us some color on what is driving such strong growth? I suspect it's modernization, but perhaps you can detail a little bit more. And then if I look at new equipment order intake, specifically North America, this is the 6th consecutive quarter of year-on-year declines. As we are almost in 2024, how do you see growth in new equipment into next year? I know it's still early, but you probably have good visibility. Does your backlog allow to still grow new equipment in the next year? I'll start there.
You want us to start with the market?
I can start. So, you know, all of our businesses are growing, and we have a very strong order book in North America. And we actually had. You know, last year we had some quarters with phenomenal growth, some a little bit lower, but all of those are actually quite long duration orders received. So we have a very good order book going into next year. But if you look at our North America business, we're actually growing strongly in all three businesses, in Service, in Modernization, New Building Solutions. And yeah, that order book spans well far into next year and beyond.
Yeah. And I think that's a good to understand is that our longest order book from a rotation perspective is in North America, and it is on a good level leading into next year.
Thank you. Then on the orders that you have raised prices, specifically also in North America, are they being executed today? Or, as you said, these are probably long duration, so likely in 2024 and 2025. I just wanted to understand where the higher margin is coming from, given the growth in North America. Is that mostly driven by Service or, Modernization? Thank you very much.
I think we're maybe just to make sure that we're talking about the same thing. So I was talking a lot about the orders margin for the orders we booked. Then when it comes to results, so we have the fastest rotating order book is in the Modernization, and it also had the fastest recovery to on the margins. So that's clearly contributing positively in Americas as well. Then in New Building Solutions we are continuously seeing improving margins as more and more the order the orders that we're delivering have continuously increasing margins. And more of that is visible in Europe, where the order book is rotating faster. In Americas, it continues to be a tailwind going into 2024, given the order book rotation.
We continue also in Asia, outside of China, which we don't talk much about, continue to have a good development from that perspective.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line, Aurelio Calderon from Morgan Stanley. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll take one and a follow-up, please. The first question is around the EUR 100 million in savings that you are talking about and kind of adjusting the cost base. The question is: Do you think that's enough, that should take you to the right place in the cost base, adjusting for the next, let's say, four or five years? Or do you think that you may need more, or do you think that this EUR 100 million is enough?
Well, I think, first, there are very few things we see that long in the future, and, as in any good business, you need to adjust continuously as you move through the business cycles and business environment. And of course, on a local level, that is even more true, and that we will continue going forward doing as well. The operating model change was about savings, but it was also much more about also reflecting, being close to customers, having faster decision-making, which is driven by the market environments, and recognizing the world that has changed around us. So I think it's equally about that.
That's great. Thank you. And, second question is a follow-up to, to one of the comments made earlier around the growth in units. I think the comment was that, growth has accelerated compared to the, to the past few years. So what's driving that? Is, is it the penetration of 24/7? Is it you're improving, your offering versus, I don't know, other OEMs or versus ISPs? What's driving that growth i n units, which I guess, looks quite good compared to history?
I would say, as I mentioned, in service, you kind of need to do all of those. One of the really key drivers has been an improved retention. That is always critical in this business. So the more you can retain, the higher percentage you have there, the better. So that has been one key driver. But then I think all of the above. I think we have a very... I don't want to think, I know we have a very competitive offering in service. It's a differentiated offering. Also, we know that our connected services are providing real value, and therefore customers are paying a good price for them as well. So all of these are contributing to it.
You can't say that it's one thing, and that's really a service business, how it works, that you need to get a lot of small things right, to be able to grow that. And, you know, when you get that right, you can probably sustain it, because that's really ingrained in your organization.
Of course, needless to say, that underlying work to do the maintenance for the elevator as well, to be able-
Yeah
to have a good outcome for the customers' needs to be right. So these are just initiatives that we're talking about.
The service business, many people think it's easy business. It's actually a very detailed, very hard work business, but when you get it right, it has big rewards, and I think we're getting it quite right right now, or for many years already, frankly.
Yep, that's great. Thank you very much.
Do we have-
Yeah, good afternoon, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions. Yeah, it's basically two questions for Ilkka, I guess. I was just wondering whether you guys have an update for us on the expected tailwinds from raw material or component prices, as well as logistics costs for 2023. If I remember correctly, you used to guide for roughly or a tailwind of roughly EUR 100 million. I was wondering whether that's still the case. And then secondly, I was just, I was a little bit surprised to see your exceptional items being, you know, neutral to slightly positive.
Can you elaborate a little bit, what were the individual components thereof that, you know, relatively neutral item, and whether we're still looking at the overall costs related to the new operating model of around EUR 70 million for this year? Thanks.
Yeah. Yes, so first on the tailwind from input costs or raw materials, you're very much right, so it hasn't changed. So for 2023, it's approximately EUR 100 million this tailwind altogether. So no change there. And on the exceptional items, I noticed actually seeing the consensus coming in, that maybe we should have been even more clear on the communication, that we booked much of the costs already in Q2, and overall expect the 70. So I think in Q3, that was something that not everybody had realized or heard correctly. But no change there in our guidance. And you might have seen, we've concluded our divestment process for our Russian assets, so the positive number is actually the fluctuation in the currency.
That's why it looks a bit off in Q3.
Okay, but just to clarify, so that EUR 70 million is off the table because it's now, like, more like EUR 56 or so?
No, it's 70 for the year, so there's some to come.
Still, okay. Okay, thanks.
Thank you.
I'm Panu Laitinmäki from Danske Bank. The line is open now, please go.
Thank you. I just wanted to ask about your view on the Chinese market. I mean, you have given the outlook for 2023, but it's two months until we are in 2024. So any thoughts, like what's your best assumption for the new equipment business? Is it that or any comments on that?
So, we are not yet saying let's do that in January, because we know that the market development will be very dependent on policy action. And there we're seeing smaller and bigger policy action already happening, not a big impact on the market yet. We're probably gonna see a challenging market next year as well. What is the development gonna be in percent? I think, let's wait for that until next year. The way we're developing our business, and we're focusing a lot on driving growth in the growing segments of Service and Modernization, and then New Building Solutions market, probably more challenging still next year. What I would expect going into next year is we continue to have a tailwind from these completions.
Now, of course, with the growth we had in orders received, we of course, improving our own situation for next year.
Thanks. If I can just one follow-up. You have previously commented on the margins, like, directionally, with China being above or at group level and so on. So can you kind of give us an update, like, where is China now compared to the group, and where is China in equipment compared to the services in China?
Yeah. So on a broad level, China is on a group level margins as a whole. I don't think I've commented in more detail by business, but t hat's what I've said, and it is the case right now.
Okay, thank you.
We will take the next question from line, John Kim from Deutsche Bank. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Hi, two questions, please, if you don't mind. Can we get a little bit of color on the backlog? It'd be helpful to know how much, as of Q3, is still focused on new equipment versus what you book for service and modernization. And then secondly, unrelated, if you think about other markets, you've had peers talk about growth outside of China for new builds, particularly India. I'm wondering how you think about India in terms of a market opportunity over the next 3-5 years. Thank you.
Well, I guess you can take India.
You know, it's the ones of you who have been following us and knowing me for a long time know that I've been bullish about India for many years. I was. You know, it took a while before it took off. And why am I so bullish on going forward in India? Is that over the past 10 years, there's been several fundamental reforms in India that's impacted the economy, but also has impacting our business. And you know, every time those reforms happen, it was a short-term negative for the business, but everyone was always convinced when they happened that, "Hey, these are good long-term." And that's really what we're reaping the benefits of now. And we can see that the fundamental drivers are there.
Economy is growing, young population, we can see it continues to urbanize. All of the drivers, you know, digital economy in, in India is just amazing right now. All of these things are really driving positive growth there. So I expect India to be one of the secular growth markets for many years. Yes, of course, it can fluctuate a little bit year to year, but I have a very positive outlook. We have a very strong position in India. We're the market leader there, and, you know, therefore focusing a lot on continuing to grow there. So I must say, really, yes, I'm very bullish on the market, if you look long term.
Is that clear enough?
Yes, I very much agree on your view on India. It is one of the growth pockets that we have in the market right now. On the order book, we haven't broken down that in very much detail, but the way to think about it is that our shortest rotating order book is the modernization order book. And that's in all markets, I would say 8-9 months rotation on average, max. And then on a new equipment order book, it is elsewhere rotating. So let's say Europe is about 1+ year, China is nine months or less, and U.S. is maybe 1.5+ years.
Then on top of that, you have major projects that can be 1.5-2.5 years rotating. Majority of the order book is still do the rotation these New Building Solution orders. The rest is rotating fast.
Just a clarification question on India. Are we about 100,000 units under that per annual sales? The market, not necessarily yourselves.
Market is probably a bit shy of 100,000, yes, at the moment.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from line, Ben Heelan from Bank of America. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for taking my question. You mentioned, in response to one of the questions, you do see a challenging environment in China next year. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about your ability to manage the cost base in that environment, given it does look as though the market is going to be down. And then in the past, you'd given color about the performance between Northern Europe and Southern Europe in terms of market and the trends you're seeing there. Could you give us a bit of an update in terms of how that's trended in Q3? Thank you.
If I take the China part first-
Yeah, you take China. Yep.
And you can talk about the market?
Yep, yep.
I think it's also good to remember that we talk a lot about China and NBS, New Building Solutions market, but we have good opportunities to grow, as Henrik was highlighting, with this 9/12 markets we have in both services and modernization in China. So those are structurally working against each other. Then when it comes to costs, a large part of our costs in this operating model that we have are actually quite flexible when it comes to manufacturing, how we install elevators. And of course, that fluctuates based on the volumes that we see in the market, and we plan for the volumes as we see them.
Then, of course, we do have also more fixed costs when it comes to go-to-market, and that we always have to evaluate between the business opportunities and the market and what is the right level.
Yep. Then on Europe, south versus northern parts of Europe. Actually, if you look at both South and North Europe, what are the positives that start from them? Modernization markets are growing in both, service markets growing in both, clearly a little bit faster in northern parts of Europe. But I would say in both parts we have had good pricing. And, you know, if you look at Europe overall, as you can see from our interim report, we had in the service business in Europe, we had a double-digit growth in the quarter. For a stable market that is growing slightly, that is an amazing achievement. So you can see that we really capture that very nicely. Now, then, construction markets, it's clear that at the moment, the decline is faster the further north you go.
So Nordic region, Sweden, Finland, very challenging. Germany, challenging. And then a little bit better situation if you go to south, and that comes more that perhaps there's a little bit more mix-wise, commercial construction there now. Also, they are down, but not quite as much. But I said that the good thing is that service modernization is growing across Europe, and that is a consistent story. And then, yeah, construction markets are pretty challenging.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from line, Vlad Sergievskiy from Barclays. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thanks very much for taking my questions. I'll start with China, if I may. Would you be able to disclose the book-to-bill ratio in China new equipment this quarter? And do you see the potential for your order intake to stay decoupled from the market, i.e., to continue to grow in the coming quarters while markets continues to moderate? And also, if you are able to disclose the book-to-bill in new equipment on a global basis in the quarter, would be helpful. Thank you.
Yeah, so there's quite a lot of fluctuation on a quarterly basis, so I normally tend to look at it more on a rolling basis. But yes, in China, on a rolling basis, we're below one, but overall, we are above one, given the performance we have. So, in that sense, we're doing well.
Okay, got it. If I can ask a question on working capital, please. Obviously, you still carry a very attractive EUR 900 million net working capital position. Would you be able to give a rough idea of how it is split between new equipment and maintenance? And maybe if you would be able to disclose what proportion of this EUR 900 million sits in China at the moment.
I think we can look at the details with our IR team in more detail after the call. The way I would analyze it is that we have roughly similar commercial terms in our business in new building solutions in China and the rest of the world. So if you look at the split of the business, it gives you an idea on that one. Then, it's good to note that the advances that you see in the balance sheet, it's not only new building solutions, but we do get also the service agreements. And in modernization, we also bill in advance in most cases, our customers.
All right. Thank you very much for the call.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from line, Rizk Maidi from Jefferies. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Thanks for taking the questions. Henrik, I have two, and specifically on China. I mean, given your experience, sort of running the group, a lot of the outlook, as you said, is dependent on the policy actions. But at the same time, we've had the starts and land sales weak for two years. Completions are a short-term boost to demand, and there is a view that even if you see sort of a policy action, you still have to sort of convert two years' worth of weak starts and land sales for the next two years, basically. Just perhaps your thoughts on this comment.
Secondly, I'd love to know how we should think about the maintenance in China and what point we should start to see weakness there driven by the new equipment. I know there is a two-year first service period, just perhaps how we think about that flow from new equipment to maintenance, please. Thanks.
Sure. Well, first of all, the overall markets in China, construction markets, markets for new building solutions, you're right, that we have had now a prolonged period with negative starts, land sales and all of that. And that has been reflected in our business. You can see that our revenues in China have declined clearly over the past few years. They peaked in 2021, I think, or... Yes, 2021, they peaked and been coming down, and that really reflects the market. So if I think about China, you know, the total value of the market, I think we should from sometime next year, we're going to start seeing a growth in the market when we look at all three businesses.
So from that perspective, I'm actually quite positive about China, that there is growth potential over the coming years, clear growth potential, but it's going to come from a little bit different areas. At the same time, the new building solutions market in China will continue to be the largest in the world. It will continue to be very large, and a very important one for competitiveness, for success, but it's clear that it's not as big as it was in the prior years.
But I think the key thing that we are focused on is that, let's see exactly when it happens, but I think in the next year, we're going to see that the market is again on a growth path, and that's going to enable revenues to start growing again in China for the industry as a whole, and of course, then our objective is to do that. On service, yes, there is the first couple of years is the first service period, and now there's, of course, less conversions in China, but it's still a growing market. And, you know, we're very focused in China also capturing... There are a lot of KONE elevators in the market that we are not servicing.
I mean, KONE is the brand with the highest level installations in the whole market. That is the market leader brand, and therefore, by capturing back more of these, we're going to be able to continue to grow. So that's where we need to focus more than on conversions going forward. So again, the opportunity is there, but as markets shift, it's going to be a little bit different. And I see that, you know, our teams are doing a really nice job in improving this all the time.
Maybe a few words about modernization as well.
Well, that's, yeah, surprising I didn't say it, because at every time I look at it, I get very excited. Because that's a market that we're going to see, you know, 20%+ growth over the next 7-10 years. So that is a very exciting market. Yes, it's coming from a low level, but everyone can calculate that if you're compounding at those kind of levels, it will become big market. And, you know, we've been compounding even clearly higher than that. So, that is where future growth is going to come from. So clearly, we need to shift the business, but that's okay. As long as there are opportunities, then it's up to us to capture them.
Mm-hmm. Very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from line, Debashis Chand from SocGen. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Hi, thanks very much for taking my questions. I have just one follow-up on the previous questions on China. The completions of unfinished products, which you mentioned as a tailwind for the next year, could you give some more color on how much further runway do you think there is from these completions for next year? And also, do you think with the change in focus towards growth, which we have seen in this quarter, you have kind of turned the corner in terms of your own performance in New Building Solutions in China, and you can now outperform the market, even if the New Building Solutions market is down, say, again, next year? So, yeah. Thank you very much.
So I would first say that, you know, I'm very happy about the quarter in China. We have really good momentum there. It's one quarter and, you know, there is definitely strong competition in that market. Everyone will want to capture the opportunities there, so it's, we need to be competitive every day and, you know, I'm confident of our competitiveness. But let's see, I'm not gonna start predicting our orders or market share or anything that into next year. Completions, there is a little bit difficult to get an exact picture of it. But if you look at, you know, starts over many years and completions, there's a huge gap. So there, there can be, you know, up to a year of extra, kind of, work in progress that, that should work out for our market.
How quickly will it come? It's unclear, but it's clear that the focus is there, and we continue to see that that is supporting markets. But to give an exact number there is, is perhaps a bit difficult.
Yeah, I would say the same thing. Yeah.
Thanks so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the last question from line, Andrew Wilson from JP Morgan. The line is open now, please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you very much for squeezing me in. It's hopefully a couple of quick broad questions. Just on the connected and 24/7 offering, I'm interested. It feels like that's making a difference, and you've kind of talked about making a difference in terms of the ticket price on a maintenance contract, but also in terms of share gains. I guess I'm interested whether you're seeing a kind of a shift to the OEMs from the ISPs with regards to the connected offering. So I guess that's a broader market question. And then specifically, when you think about whether it be the retentions or whether it be winning the contracts from competitors, how do you feel you're performing when you compare yourself to the other OEMs, appreciating that the business models are a little bit different?
I kind of ask in the context of it's quite hard for us on the outside because I think all the companies report it slightly differently, and also the business models are slightly different. So I guess just trying to get some kind of, even if it's qualitative perspective on that, that'd be really helpful.
Let me address it in the following way. I think when you look at the latest generations of products, at least of KONE, but maybe also some of our competitors, I think the ability to keep them in your service after conversion will be better going forward. So retentions of these new, higher technology-driven products with connectivity built in, that's why it's important to have a high market share in new building solutions. I think there we will see a better retention than we've seen in the past. Then older products, as they get connected, yes, there's difference, but perhaps there it's not gonna be as big of a difference. But newer products, the more they come, I think you will have a higher retention, higher stickiness for them.
You know, I'm not gonna start comparing, the various connected services or business models. We have different ones. That's okay. That's a competitive market, everyone is, trying to differentiate in their own way, and that is what the competitive market should be all about. I am very comfortable with what we are doing because, you know, it's one of these things that when, you ask your organization to sell it at a good premium and your customers need to pay it, you need to really show that the customer outcome is the one you focused on. And we're very focused on the customer outcomes, customer success with this. If you only have something, you focus on your productivity, then the customer success may not be there.
That can also be an approach, but we, this is the path we have chosen, and I'm very comfortable with that because it's generating nice revenues for us, and we can also see it provides better customer outcomes, it provides stickiness, and we can see when penetration increases, we can also start capturing good productivity increases. So I think there are so many benefits of it. But I think like in every service or product, you know, you got to be super focused on the customer value because that is what long term will drive the success of it.
Mm-hmm. And, hey, just to highlight, Henrik talked about the long term and, what, what will happen, but we can see it in our numbers.
Yeah.
We can see the price increase in contracts when we have a connected unit. We can see productivity being higher for connected units. We get a better availability of the elevators. We can fix them first time right. And also then, as a result, we get better retention on those units. So it's not theoretical, something in the future, but it's already visible with the connected customers we have in our numbers.
Very helpful. Thank you very much, guys.
Thank you. There's no further question at this time.
Great. Thanks, Henrik and Ilkka. Thanks, everybody online, for taking the time to dial in, as well as for a very active Q&A session, a very varied one. It's always nice and refreshing. If you do have any follow-ups or any questions that have been left unanswered, please feel free to reach out to me or the team. And I guess we look forward to continuing the dialogue in upcoming IR meetings. So have a great week, everyone.
Thank you, everyone.
Thank you.