Hello, everybody, and welcome to this pre-silent call. My name is Hanna-Maria Heikkinen. I'm in charge of investor relations, and I have our CFO, Arjen Berends, here as well.
Hello.
Arjen will start with a brief summary regarding the recent development, and then we will continue with the questions. In the case you have a question, please use raise your hand, then I will allocate the time. Everybody, please mute themselves. Okay, thank you. That helped already. Okay, Arjen, please, let's get started.
All right. Thank you, Hanna-Maria. Sorry, was there a comment or no?
No, I don't think it was a-
Okay.
-comment.
Anyhow, first of all, let's say market sentiment has remained fairly positive overall, I would say. Of course, the difference per segment as well. Let's say it's not that everything is always the same. Let's say some go up, some go down, but overall, I would say it's fairly positive still. Service business continues on a good level, clearly supported by our strategy of moving up the service value ladder. We see good, good progress there already, as we also saw in the first part of the year. Decarbonization and fuel efficiency remain the top two topics being discussed with our customers. Decarbonization, because all customers want to meet and be compliant to regulatory requirements and fuel efficiency, because all understand that the future fuels will be more expensive than the fuels of today.
Even the fuels of today, being more the fossil related fuels will, in due course, be burdened by carbon taxes. So people, customers understand that, let's say, fuel efficiency is increasingly important going forward, which, of course, brings, let's say, good opportunities for us. The EUR 1.2 billion order book that was hit by cost inflation coming from the, the, let's say, beginning of last year when the war in Ukraine, Russia started. We have said earlier that by the end of Q3 this year, this would be out of our books, and that is majorly done, so that's good. Cost inflation, overall, we saw still a bit of an upward trend in Q1. But since Q1, I would say it's more, let's say, stabilized on an overall picture.
If you look at products with a high energy content or high raw material content, that is typically very, let's say, trending a little bit down, like castings and forgings. If you think about other components, it's more trending up, but in the overall picture, since Q2, it's fairly flattish in the mix, you could say. Logistics is trending down, except for road transports. That is not, let's say, trending down yet. That's still quite flattish, I would say, still on a high level. Interest rates, trend is up. No big impact to our long-term loan portfolio. On the customer side, we have seen, let's say, reapproval of business cases, which then of course means that it delays a bit in the booking of the orders, and this is mostly on the energy side.
We have still good pipelines in both energy and marine. In engine power plants, we stated earlier this year that we believe that the H2 would be better than the H1 of the year when it comes to order intake. We have, though, seen that auctions are moving more forward, so more, let's say, right in time, but we still believe that H2 could be higher than H1. It's now more about how much higher it could be. Pipeline is good, timing is difficult to say. I would say in the marine side, this is probably my final comment. What is a bit of headwind is, of course, the slot capacity at yards.
We still have a good pipeline also for orders that are already in order at the yard, but where the yard still needs to order the equipment. So that's a good pipeline for us, still ongoing. But let's say new ships that being ordered at yards, that's of course hampered by slots availability. And by the, yeah, the limited slot availability, then of course, if there is more demand for ships, then let's say the yards can supply, that has an impact to price as well. So prices of new ships is trending up. That's a bit on general sentiments now during Q3.
Thank you, Arjen, and we will continue with the question. First question comes from Sven Weyer. Please go ahead, Sven.
Yeah. Thank you, Hanna, and thanks for taking my questions. Just to follow up, Arjen, on what you just said on the, the timing of the big-ticket orders. You said they're moving forward. Did you mean they are delayed or they're moving ahead? I'm not sure I fully understood the comment.
Let's say we of course have certain conditions for taking an order into our order book. That's of course a signed contract being one, but we also typically want a notice to proceed or a down payment in addition. We have contract signed, but we don't have, for example, yet the notice to proceed or down payment. So let's say it's more moving in time. It's not that they are canceled, it's more, let's say, the momentum is shifting.
But is it still in line with what you had in mind in Q2, or is it taking longer?
It's taking somewhat longer because auctions are, let's say, moving, right? So let's say timing is shifting right at the same time. We still believe that H2 can be higher than, let's say, H1, so that I'm fairly confident with. The question is, let's say, how much higher it will be? And there that depends very much on timing. Let's say, how much right do things shift? We saw shifts from Q3 to Q4. If it then also shifts from Q4 to Q1, then that's of course out of the year. But I'm still fairly confident to say that H2 will be higher than H1.
That is just explicitly to the thermal engine part and doesn't relate to storage?
Our storage is clearly, let's say, very active, and I don't see any problems there at all.
Maybe one final question, just to follow up. Were these thermal orders important for earnings still this year? Were they in for out orders, fast delivery orders, or did they not play a role?
Not maybe. Not-
So it was more for the order intake guidance, which is more on a 12-month forward basis anyhow.
Correct. Correct.
Okay, understood. Thank you.
Thank you, Sven. Next question comes from Antti Kansanen. Please go ahead, Antti.
Thanks, Hanna, and hi, Arjen. I was about to ask pretty much the same questions as Sven, but maybe a follow-up on the power plant side. I mean, you've been previously talking about some of the Asian countries, some of the Latin American countries, and are these kind of orders related to a bigger energy transition programs that these countries are planning? So is it an interest rate kind of project recalculation that is shifting forward, or is it a political process that is being delayed? If you can open up it a little bit further.
Well, now you're over asking me. I'm sorry to...
Okay.
I cannot say that in that detail level. I do honestly not know.
Okay. But you are talking about orders that you have already kind of made the calculation, and you're just waiting for the signature on the dotted line yet?
The final bit of it, yes.
Okay. Okay, that makes sense. And then kind of, if we see kind of a further delays on this front, and it will continue to impact the workload situation on the engine manufacturing, what kind of options do you have to kind of protect your profitability? I assume that, on the Trieste side, there are already furloughs in place, so what are your kind of plan B's going forward?
As you say, basically, we have not all engine production concentrated in one place. And of course, anything relates. Let's say the energy volumes also relate to, let's say, what the marine volumes do. And I would say so far, I think we have a pretty decent load in the factory. It can always be more. The bottleneck factor in the factories, most of the time, the, let's say, the engine testing facilities, I think that's not a bottleneck today, although there are still some, let's say, early ramp-up related issues, but I would say that these are very, very minor.
I believe that, let's say if, of course, let's say if it gets really bad, which I don't think we are at that stage yet, then, of course, we can also implement temporary layoffs in Finland, in Vaasa. That's clearly possible. We have done it before.
All right. Thanks.
Thank you. Next question comes from Panu Laitinmäki. Please go ahead, Panu.
Yes, thank you. Just wanted to ask about Q3, kind of revenues. I think in energy, you mentioned timing of deliveries in Q2, so does it imply that Q3 should be better, and is that related to storage or, or also the power plants?
Very sorry to say this, but let's say I'm not going to comment on the result of Q3. I think that will come at the end of October. But I will comment on trends, so let's focus on that now.
Okay. I was go-- The second question is just on the margin drivers. Can you comment anything on them, like, the Voyage turnaround? It was quite, quite significant loss a year ago, so what's happening there? Also, on Marine Power side, the factory consolidation, I understood that at least compared to H1 , it should be better for your earnings now, and a year ago, you were ramping up the smart technology hub. Any comments on those?
Let's say Voyage, clearly, and that's also, let's say, confirming what we have said earlier. We had Voyage business as a separate division last year. I think the end, full year result was about EUR 42 million or EUR 43 million negative. We have said earlier before, and I can repeat that quite firmly, that let's say this year's result, if you combine then the piece that we merged back Marine Power, with, let's say, the piece that we put in the Portfolio Business for divestment, if we put that together, that is basically the Voyage scope, the result is significantly better. Clearly. So I can reconfirm that.
When it comes to, let's say, factory cost and margin, of course, when you are in, in the, in the, call it relocation mode, let's say, moving production from Trieste to Vaasa, but also from the old factory in Vaasa to the new STH factory, that's, of course, giving a lot of disturbance. I would say most of it is done. Let's say, in particular, when it comes to moving from the old factory in Vaasa to STH, that's basically done. There is still some, let's say, testing activities on the R&D side, but that's not related to manufacturing. When it comes to Trieste, okay, it's a cumbersome process. I think we have earlier also updated you on a regular basis, how that is going. It's not going easy.
It's been like, two steps forward, one step back kind of progress, but we are making progress. We still believe that it can be executed within the frame of the Items Affecting Comparability that we launched some time ago. But yeah, I think it's not so easy to predict what the timing will be. With the current outlook, I would say it will not close in this year, but I think it will close in the H1 of next year. That is the case.
Okay, but if I ask it in that way, that is, is it a headwind for margins compared to what you did last year?
I clearly believe that today's situation is a lot better than last year. Yes.
Okay. Sounds good. Thank you.
Thank you, Panu. Next question comes from Johan Eliason. Please go ahead, Johan.
Yeah, hi, Arjen. Hi, Hanna. Just a question on this marine. You talked about a good pipeline for ships at the yard. Is that still cruise in that number and LNG or what segments or ship classes are we talking about here?
The LSA yards are full, or pretty full, actually. But... And I would say it's container vessels, tankers, bulkers, also cruise to a certain extent, but it's more, let's say, the smaller size cruise vessels than anything else, and of course, let's say gas carriers as well, offshore wind farm installation vessels. There are certain, let's say, segments that are still very active. But, let's say new ordering of ships, even though it happens, and I think it's also a fact that yard capacity, due to the fact that there is lack of slots, is being extended. Let's say there are clearly yards in China that are extending their capacity as well.
So it's not a new yard, but it's a more extending the existing yards, which we have also seen in the offshore boom time, so it can also go rather quickly. That, of course, opens up opportunities, but, short term, it's very difficult to find a slot. If you want, for example, an LNG carrier, you have to wait until 2027, 2028 before you get it delivered, so it's pretty long out.
But you have still an opportunity for the ordered ships in the yards, in-
Yeah
... LNG, in the cruise, et cetera.
Typically, yards wait until the last moment or pretty late. Let's say, if a ship is being or to be delivered, let's say, 2027 from a yard, let's say they will not order the equipment today. They will order the equipment, let's say, a year before delivery or something like that. Depends a bit on the building schedules, in order to have the latest technology as well.
Mm-hmm. So a year before delivery is where you should see your orders now from that side? Yeah.
About that, I think you can calculate.
Okay. And then on ESS, you mentioned no problem, still growing well there. Is the competitive picture changing in any way there? I mean, you talked about Fluence and Tesla, et cetera, and but now I saw, for example, Chinese Sungrow taking a big order in Chile, I think it was. How is the competitive picture changing in the obviously still growing ESS market?
It is, let's say, these new entrants, like Sungrow, they are, they are quite aggressive on the price. They want to really take a big share of the market as well. There is a lot of demand, so I think there is plenty for all of us basically to grow. We have already decided quite some time ago to be much more selective in what we take and what we don't take. It's not an absolute must for us to grow equally fast as the market. We are selective in the approach. We want to be very sure that, let's say, we can deliver what we commit to, not, not, in order not to, let's say, run into delivery, issues or technical issues or whatsoever. Right risk/reward balance. Let's say we prefer EQ over EPC, clearly.
Sometimes it doesn't work, so then we need to do a good risk assessment on an EPC contract. Do you want to take it or not? But clearly, let's say, growth is part of the ways to, let's say, bring us to profit and, okay, look at the trend that we have also shown now. Since the end of last year, we also gave out, let's say, EBIT percentage growing 12%. I think that has been trailing very well in the last, let's say, three quarters that we communicated it, and I believe that we will be the first storage business in the world with black numbers. So, I'm very positive with the approach that we've taken. And yes, there are new entrants. They are more price-aggressive.
They want to take a share, but I think our reputation is also helping us quite a bit. And also, for example, our safety record. We are the only one with a URL 9540, I think is the number, fire certificate, which is very highly recognized in the market as well.
Now, profitability on ESS is important for you, and then a player like Sungrow, they report 30% gross margins, probably helped by the fact that they are a big inverter supplier, which is, you know, a big part of the ESS system. Isn't there a significant issue on price? I mean, I suppose your gross margins on your ESS systems must be way below this 30% that Sungrow's report, so there should be quite a big leeway for them to be aggressive on prices going forward.
Yeah, I cannot comment on their margins. I don't know them. They can be like, like that. I think, but of course, like, like I said, they can be as aggressive as they want. If they have indeed, let's say, 30% margin, they can go a long way. Question is, do they want to go that way? And also, let's say, do customers at some point of time? Because let's say so far they have not delivered, so you also need to deliver. If you have issues in your delivery, I think it will backfire quite big time, but not saying that it will happen in this case, but like I said, we are very selective.
Let's say we want to grow. We need to grow also to further grow our profitability, but we take the selective approach. So far, I think that has brought us good improvement on profitability. We will continue.
Okay.
Yeah.
Excellent. We'll see it end of the month then. Thank you.
Yep.
Thank you, Johan. Next question comes from Tom Skogman. Please go ahead, Tom.
Yes, good afternoon. This is Tom Skogman from Carnegie. You mentioned power auctions, and you still say that you have won orders already. So, so I don't really understand this vocabulary. I mean, if it's auctions doesn't... I mean, if they have not been held, how can you have won the orders, and in what countries are these power auctions?
No, that's not what I said. Let's say the auctions are moving, right? So let's say we had also anticipated to get orders from there. They can turn quite quickly, actually. But there are also other orders. It's not only related to the auctions.
What are the countries where you have these auctions now?
The auctions are mainly, I would say, South America. Also, let's say Asia, where we see a right shift.
Okay. I'd like to ask a bit about the service growth sentiment, because you had very difficult annual comparisons in the Q2 , and still you showed double-digit growth, and that proved in the Q2 reporting season to be, you know, quite unique. Many other engineering companies had good growth in Q1, but, you know, almost no growth or negative growth even in the Q2 , while you continued to grow. I, I'm just a bit curious, you know, was there some special things, you know, contract renewals were so boosting the service order growth in the Q2 that we should understand when we do our estimates for the Q3 ? Or, or, why are you growing so much faster than almost all other engineering companies in service at the moment?
Because we have a very good strategy of moving up the service value ladder, Tom. No, I cannot say why others stay behind. That I cannot say, but I do believe that, let's say, our strategy is really paying off. Let's say, if on your question, is there one single big issue that I can highlight in Q2? No, I think we saw growth basically in all the revenue streams in service, being it spare part, field service, agreements, and projects. So just to pick out one, yeah, I would not even know what one to pick, actually.
Is it so that the offshore fleet is coming back into use, and you see kind of a lot of incremental growth this year from that, and that continues now in the Q3 , or is there something we should just understand in these dynamics?
Yeah, yeah, but okay, I see where you, where you're coming from. Let's say offshore is clearly, let's say, very active, and it has been growing throughout the year. Well, at the same time, let's say merchant is going down. So it's in the mix of things, it's of course what you look at in service as well. But yeah, in the mix we are still doing upward trend, and that's good, and hopefully we can keep that going as long as possible. And as I said before, clearly, let's say our strategy of getting more agreement coverage, increasing the share of wallet, et cetera, I think that's a working formula.
Yeah.
Of course, everything depends on activity in the market. If the ships are not sailing, then of course, this will not continue. So far, let's say where one segment goes down, the other goes up, and in the mix it's still quite, quite good actually.
I guess with the spare parts and wear parts, there is also this dynamic with price increases. So I don't know when you had your big price hikes last year and this year, and whether that has an impact on just, you know, short-term momentum. I guess a lot of engineering companies had the last round of price hikes in March, April, which boosted, you know, Q1, and then turned into a setback in the Q2 . Is there something you want to highlight there?
We are okay, in the long-term past, I think we used to do price, spare part price updates, once, sometimes 2x a year. I think those times are long gone. Also, learning by experience, you could say, or bad experience, with all this excessive cost inflation. I would say now the lines between our supply chain or people working in the supply chain with our suppliers, versus the people that are quoting departments and the quoting systems, is much more shorter. So if we smell of some kind of, let's say, price increase coming somewhere, then we reflect that immediately into our quotation systems.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you, Tom. Next question comes from Erkki Vesola. Please go ahead, Erkki.
Thank you, Arjen and Hanna. You said storage market is clearly very active. Just a more general question, are there any bigger projects in the funnel right now that you could still book in 2023?
Yeah, there are. But I will not open up more.
Okay, okay. Regarding the kind of change in competitive landscape, have you been able to retain your pricing on previous levels in storage?
... I would say we have always had quite good pricing level. But of course, let's say when it was not good, that was basically when we had an order book for storage and then the price escalation hit us. But let's say since we implemented indexation, I think it has been really a good thing for us. We are not sponging anymore. Of course, let's say we are not gaining anymore either if we have fixed the price and the raw material goes down, but I have that rather than having this big risk that has been hitting us, let's say, last year so hard.
So it's still very much a volume game in the kind of cost structure, that there's nothing more to add or-
Absolutely.
Okay.
Also, given my earlier comment on, let's say these new entrants, they are very price aggressive, so really good chances of increasing the price are limited.
Okay, very good. Thank you.
Thank you, Erkki. Next question comes from Sven Weyer. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you, Anna. First follow-up is on storage. Also, I was just wondering, the projects where there is a lot of pricing pressure, is there pricing pressure because these projects are less sophisticated, lower spec, and you can't really benefit as much, for example, from the Greensmith software? Or are these also higher spec projects where there is more price competition?
I would say it's basically in both. At least I'm not aware of any, let's say, specific projects on the high end or the medium and the low end. I think we see Sungrow and the likes, let's say, other entrants as well, in various projects. But let's say it varies a bit. Let's say in some projects you compete with Tesla and Fluence and Sungrow, and in another project, you don't see Sungrow. So it is... I cannot really say that these projects they are and these projects they are not. At least I don't have that information.
Yeah, I think I was just wondering, because I think in the past you said, you know, your expertise is obviously building these projects anywhere in the world, in the middle of nowhere. You know, you have, you know the different assets, you know the interplay, you have the Greensmith software, and that's really the edge, right? But some storage projects might be not so remote and might be not so sophisticated and maybe more prone to price pressure. That's why I was asking, you know?
Yeah. Yeah, that's a good question. I can question internally as well, but I'm not aware of any such.
The other question I had, just in terms of trends, right? I mean, if we go pre-pandemic, there was always a bit of a seasonality in Q3 in terms of the orders, right? And a bit slower summer, of course. And we heard that also this year from other companies. I mean, it's something we should keep in mind, or in general, back to seasonality, or?
That's a good question, and not an easy one to answer, frankly speaking. I think, let's say on the service side, I think we will see the normal seasonality, which we have always seen. I don't think that has been very different. If you go to new builds, I think the, let's say, the typical, let's say big Q4 or big Q3 and four, or big H2 , you could say, I think a bigger H2 is probably still there. I'm not sure if it's a hockey stick, new build Q4. I think that trend is already for a few years, not so much there anymore. So, I hope that answers a little bit that, that-
Yeah, I mean, we've probably also read that the big-ticket order announcements were fewer in all the activities, right? And I just wondered if that's just seasonality or the fact that you couldn't announce it yet or whatever.
Yeah.
Yeah.
It was very difficult to exactly say, because if you go to, what was it, 2021, when we booked in Q4, let's say certainly EUR 400+ million Mexico. Yeah, okay. That seasonality, I'm not sure if it's seasonality or just coincidence that it was in Q4.
Yeah. And, and lastly, just on the, on the old contracts that you said are phasing out in Q3, I mean, was there still a tiny part left, or how should we look at that? Or was it equal parts-
Uh-
... in Q1, Q2 to Q3?
Okay, we are not, let's say, giving any opening on, let's say, the timing. We have always said that by the end of Q3 this year, it will be out, and I can confirm it is out.
Good. Thank you.
Thank you, Sven. Next question comes from Antti Kansanen. Please.
Yeah, thanks. Thanks. Wanted to follow up a bit on the comments on storage being an active market. You obviously haven't announced a lot anyways during Q3, so is this more like a permission thing, or is it more a fair collection of smaller deals that you are now getting? I mean, the previous quarter was great, but it was only one order, so just trying to reflect what should be a good comparison time period.
No, I can clearly say it's more than one order this time. It's also more than two orders this year, this time, but I can also say. Why don't we announce? Let's say announcements are always, let's say you need to get the confirmation from the customer. Do they want to announce the order? Are they giving us permission to do that? What we don't want is to announce an order where the customer has not given permission, because that would clearly destroy a relationship. So that has always been a challenge, but quarter one, or sorry, quarter three will not be one order. It's more than one order, clearly.
... Okay, okay. Then maybe a bit about the profitability. I mean, it's been trending well past 12 months, but the growth on the revenue side, on the volume side, has been good as well. So from here onwards, is that continuing to be the primary driver? I mean, are there any scope of improving your gross margin by being more selective or by whatever it would be? Or is it for you still a volume game to continue the margin expansion?
You talk storage now?
Yes, storage specifically.
Okay. Yeah, let's say I think it's a combination of things. Let's say it's. Yes, as I said before, we need to grow the volume. That's part of our plan to get to, let's say, black numbers. But of course, we are also working on, for example, the R&D side, the ease of installation, ease of commissioning, and the likes. Also working with supply chain to get, let's say, still better prices. Even though, let's say, the batteries are indexed, you can still negotiate, okay, what's the, what's the starting point? But also all the other equipment around it, like the Quantums and the modules, and et cetera. So it's not just volume, it's volume as well. It's also being more selective, better risk reward balances in project during execution.
Yeah, I would say that that combination actually should get us there.
Okay. And I guess you probably won't comment on this, but any kind of progress on the local content side in the U.S. storage market, securing supply, or how do you look at it?
Clearly, we are working also to get, let's say, US supply up from where we are today. So that's the only thing I, I will comment.
How do you see—actually see it kind of progressing in a sense that when do you think it's gonna be meaningful enough to actually differentiate before getting deals? I mean, it's a, it's a long road to build up that, that supply chain and, and have it in place.
Yeah, of course, but I would almost say that all battery manufacturers are somehow starting to be active in the US to chip in on the IRA. We are talking to several of them to also, let's say, get supplies from the US. I don't think we are very different from, let's say, the Fluences and the competitors as well in that respect. So that's the same we do.
All right. Thank you.
Thank you, Antti. Next question comes from Panu Laitinmäki.
Yes, thank you. I just wanted to ask on the power plants and kind of the sales pipeline that you see for the next 12 months. You now commented on what you expect in Q3, but like, can you kind of comment where do you see the projects and how much is balancing, and how much is base load on in the cases where you are discussing, and any kind of traction of engines gaining more market share against turbines in balancing?
Oh, that's a lot of questions in one. I will not, let's say, give now, let's say, the guidance as we see it, you know, by the end of Q3. Let's say, I think for now, I think we need to go with the guidance that we gave in Q2, which is basically, let's say, similar. I still believe that that is a good number. As I explained earlier on the volatility, let's say, options moving and decisions, it's still a very lumpy business. Of course, it includes also storage, which can be very large orders as well. So it's a very difficult combination to be very, very exact.
I just want to conclude, basically, let's say we have a good pipeline, and we had also a good pipeline, so I think that has not really changed. But as also said many times before, and I wish I could be more clear on it myself as well, it would much... be much easier in planning. Timing is difficult to say. And let's say if you have a EUR 200 million order in this quarter, or the next quarter, or the quarter after, yeah, it makes a big difference on the numbers. But what is good to see is that we are not seeing any cancellations. We also don't see too much lost cases either. So yes, we lose, of course, every now and then, something, but let's say it's not a major thing.
We are working on many projects at the same time, in parallel.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you, Panu. Next question comes from Johan Eliason. Please go ahead, Johan.
Yeah, hi again. I was just thinking, you talked about hockey stick here. I was wondering about your margin hockey stick. I mean, the years before the pandemic, there was always a very strong hockey stick in the Q4 in terms of margin that you reported. During the pandemic, we haven't really seen that to any significant impact, although Q4 tends to be the best quarter still. Now, when we hear, you know, the low margin backlog should be done by Q3, ESS seems to have been potentially profitable very soon now, et cetera, and it gives us the feeling that there could be a hockey stick coming. Is there something in your accounting that has changed, or something else that has made this effect disappear?
No, we have not changed any accounting rules. Let's say, basically, the majority of our contracts are completed contract methods, and if you think more like the EPC kind of contracts, they are percentage of completion. And what we applied, let's say, three or five years ago, let's say, on that rule, let's say, do we apply percentage of completion or completed contract method? Those same rules apply still today. No change.
Why is it that this sort of hockey stick has been gone for some time? Has the spare parts consumption at the end of the year changed somehow in this odd situation, or what's the reason?
... if you just take a simple fact that let's say we are 90% market share in cruise main engines, and in COVID times, no engines were running, ferries were flat down as well, or very low on utilization. I would say that's pretty much clarifying. And then you always have, let's say, at least as far as I can remember, we have a hockey stick in the service business, which is clearly, let's say, also supporting, let's say, call it the overall hockey stick.
Q4 this year, hockey stick should be back, cruise is running at full capacity, et cetera?
I would say that sounds logical to me.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Johan. Next question comes from Sven Weier.
Yep. Thank you, Anna. Just more of a tech question regarding carbon capture, Arjen. Was just wondering, because I think we talked a lot in past calls about carbon capture on ships, right? And similarity maybe to scrubbers. I was just wondering, is it also from a tech side for you a market to be on the receiving end in the ports, right? For the... Because it needs to go somewhere. And also on the transportation side, on carbon carriers, would that be similar technology, like for example, on LNG? And maybe also, if I may, carbon capture with the engine power plants, is that also more on the onshore side, potential market for the product?
I would say our carbon capture technology. I'm sure it can be used on land, but let's say basically what we have done is, you could say, marinate, call it the existing technologies, of course, with some additional development, to be able to utilize on the maritime side, which is a much more harsh environment for that kind of equipment. I would say that goes pretty well. The interest is huge, I can say. As we said already earlier, this could be a bigger boom than scrubbers, could also last longer than scrubbers, but let's see how the future is. It's still, let's say, two years out before we have this technology to a level that we, let's say, can release it for sale.
But I would say everybody in the company, and not only in the company, looking at the R&D milestones, but also, let's say, in the market, let's say, looking at the interest that there is for this product, it's really great, actually. And then on your question, okay, is there a market for us to be in the discharging business? I would not say so. I'd say I think that's... I don't think that's something for us to do.
The carbon carriers, would that be?
Carbon carriers, to my understanding, they are already being built, actually.
Yeah.
Yeah. And let's say, I think also our Gas Solutions business is actively involved there.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you, Sven. The next question comes from Anders Idborg. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Just if we could talk a bit more about what you're doing on the marine profitability side. I think you mentioned already, you know, some manufacturing inefficiencies, but on the Voyage side, you know, what are you doing there? I mean, could we expect some results on that? Also, I guess I just wanted to ask on Marine Systems, we had this project write-down in Q2, if you could just confirm that that sort of was taken care of in full in the prior quarter.
Yes, that's the last one I can confirm. On the marine side, on the factory side, I'm not sure what I should add to what I said earlier. Let's say we have been doing a lot of footprint changes on the manufacturing side. We closed the joint venture in Zhenjiang, in China. We sold the Santander factory in the propulsion, which was making propellers and related equipment. We now are in the process of closing manufacturing site in Trieste. Also the old factory in Vaasa will over time close. All the things have now been moved to STH in Vaasa.
So I think we have done a lot of actions, let's say, that everything is not yet, because we are still having these tail ends on Trieste, for example, it is not yet fully optimal, so that, that's still to be done. But otherwise, I would not see what more you could do, could do. Let's say, then we have, of course, let's say, joint ventures in China on engine production as well, but I think that is just very good to have, because that is clearly with the biggest yard group in China, and there is clearly an interest from that yard group to also, let's say, supply or give engine orders to that, to that joint venture, which is, of course, increasing our installed base, of which we later can do a lot of service for.
I think the setup that we have today is way better than what we had, well, two or even three years ago, or even 10 years ago.
Oh, that's helpful. And Voyage, specifically?
Sorry, Voyage, let's say, okay, we just recently in the springtime, we broke Voyage basically into two pieces. One piece that we moved into a Portfolio Business for divestment, and then the other piece we moved back Marine Power. why did we move that back Marine Power? when I did my opening words, I said that, okay, in the discussions with customers, there are two items always on the agenda is decarbonization, so they want to meet regulatory requirements, and the second is fuel efficiency. And why fuel efficiency? Because of that they know that prices of new fuels will be more expensive, and also the prices of the current fossil fuels will be more expensive because they will be burdened by carbon taxes in due course.
So in the lifetime of a vessel, the operating cost, you could say, from fuel point of view, will go up. So fuel efficiency is clearly a very hot topic, and now let's say moving what we call today Voyage Services back Marine Power, we optimize or we can offer from one business unit within Marine Power, engine efficiency, propulsion efficiency, and Voyage efficiency in one discussion from one team, so to say. And that is clearly, let's say, what customers were looking for.
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Thank you, Anders. Next question comes from Mikael Döpel. Please go ahead, Mikael.
Thank you. Firstly, a question on cost. So you mentioned overall stability, I guess, something moving down, something moving up. But I was thinking about labor cost overall. I would assume that we have probably some incremental costs coming through there into the H2 and probably into next year as well. I'm just wondering, are you already taking that into consideration in your pricing on your service business, for example, or is that something that you still need to adjust for in the quarters to come?
No, I would say we have also already calculated that in pricing as well. But of course, at the same time, we are all the time working on continuous improvement efforts as well. Let's say, having, let's say now that, for example, the STH factory is a much more efficient and effective factory than, let's say, the combination of the old, old factories we had before. So continuous improvement is clearly a topic that is very high on the agenda in Wärtsilä. Clearly removing waste and rework and waiting time and et cetera out of processes, and that, of course, also should give benefits. But yes, a piece of it goes in the pricing, has already gone in the pricing, but there's also a piece to be covered by continuous improvement.
Okay. And then I had a couple of questions related to the storage business. Now, in conjunction with the Q2 report, you mentioned some hesitation among some customers, given that the lithium prices came down.
Mm.
Now I guess the lithium prices have again come down a bit. Just wondering, you know, are you seeing again some hesitation among your customers due to this, or do you see the market, you know-
No
... normal in a way?
It's more normalized, I would say today. Yeah.
So it hasn't really impacted demand, the fact that the lithium prices have come down?
The orders that we had, let's say, at that point of time in the pipeline, it was an issue. Let's say at least a few, we could clearly see that it was hesitation and waiting. I would not say that it's currently the same situation. It's more normal business, at least from what I heard. Yeah.
Okay. Okay. And then finally, on storage, just wondering about the margins there. I mean-
Mm
... you have had a fairly good improvement there. You seem very comfortable or confident in the fact that, that you're gonna continue to, to improve your margins there. Do you dare to say you know what kind of a potential you see overall at the end of the day for the storage business? I'm just asking because in the context of your overall targets to... on the group level. So I'm just wondering how you, how you see the storage business, you know, at the end of the day.
I will not, let's say, give long-term perspective on it. Let's say our first goal is to get this to profit. That's what we have also said earlier, and that's, let's say, the first thing. Then once we are in profit, then we need to pull it, pull it further. We want to, of course, grow as, as high as we possibly can. Will it be equal profitability to engine business, which have a very high, let's say, service portion related to it in the end-to-end comparison? I think that will be very difficult, frankly speaking. But I will not comment on, let's say, how much it will then be eventually, but we believe it's possible.
Okay. No, that's fair. Thank you.
Thank you, Mikael. Next question comes from Tomi Railo.
Hi, it's Tomi from DNB. A couple of questions. Firstly, just confirming, you mentioned continued service momentum. We should treat that as order intake still growing in the Q3 ?
I will not comment on the Q3 yet, but you could see later on. Let's say we are doing good service business, yes.
Okay. And then, maybe also, on the plant side, just checking the numbers and comments. Would you say that the power plant orders on sort of unannounced basis are better, as you see at the moment, compared to the second and Q1 , and really the moving part is the announced bigger orders, which caused the volatility?
No, I'm not sure if I understand your question. Okay, can you repeat once more?
Would you say that the underlying plant orders, which you don't announce, so the unannounced base activity is improving from the first and Q2 levels, and then the moving parts really comes, and the volatility comes from the announced orders, which you indicate this sort of maybe a moving target from Q3 to Q4 ?
... I will not comment on that. I think that goes way too detailed.
Tomi, basically, we don't have that kind of baseload orders, as I understood your question, you are referring to. So the nature of the energy business is that it's lumpy.
Mm.
You know, single orders can impact quarters quite a lot.
Yes.
Okay. Then if you could comment the cash flow development. I mean, it improved in the Q2 , and maybe the quite low working capital to sales ratio. Is that sort of how sustainable in a way is that level, what you are currently seeing?
I do not believe that it will radically change, let's say, working capital to sales ratio, and that's all I will say.
Okay, the final question: Have your customers started to ask, price reductions from you?
Customers always ask price reductions. They want, of course, the equipment at the lowest possible price. But then it's the question of, let's say, what is the right balance between price and value that you can offer, and of course, also how good you are in differentiating from the competitors that are active in the same project. But there is always, let's say, customers want to have everything for as little money as possible.
All right. Thank you.
Thank you, Tomi. The next question comes from John B. Kim. Please go ahead. John B. Kim, can you hear us? If not, then I have a couple of questions by email. Question on competitive intensity on service, specific if the competitive situation differs significantly by division.
Oh, good question. I do believe that there is probably more piracy, although there are no statistics on this at all, frankly speaking. But I think there is more piracy on the marine side than there is on the energy side.
Mm.
But as I said, there are no exact statistics, so this is more from hearsay and feeling than anything else.
Thank you. And then we already had a little bit similar question, but, in case I wanted to add some color on this, could you please comment on realized price inflation versus underlying wage inflation on your service business?
I think there is nothing more to it than what I said earlier, right?
Yeah. So this has been taken into account already.
Erkki has a question as well.
Yes. And then Erkki Vesola. Please go ahead, Erkki.
Thank you. Just a little bit beyond the Q3 development, a more kind of housekeeping question: What are the current prices of methanol-capable, and then, on the other hand, hybrid engines per megawatt vis-à-vis traditional gas or dual fuel engines? Just ballpark figures would be helpful.
I would say hydrogen is not even out there, so I think it's too early to even comment on that. Methanol-
I was talking about me. Okay.
Sorry.
I was talking about hybrid, not hydrogen.
Ah, sorry, hybrid. Methanol engines, I think they are a little bit more expensive. I don't even know exactly, let's say, the exact difference, but I would not say it's a massive, massive delta compared to, let's say, normal engines.
20%-30% maybe?
No, I think it's way less.
Way less. Okay. And then hybrid, where you have the batteries, et cetera, they're on.
Let's say if you, if you talk about the engine price, an engine price is an engine price. Let's say whether you add batteries or not, that doesn't change the engine price. So, it's a bit of a different scope, so it's not so easy to compare a single engine sale with an engine sale plus battery. I wouldn't say it's... Yeah, for sure, it's a higher price, let's say, because you add more equipment to it. But let's say typically with engines, you always have auxiliary equipment. Also, in the marine side, if you just sell a single engine, often we talk about, okay, an engine order, but in many cases there is a cooler or pump or whatever, or multiple coolers or pumps or other equipment going in the same contract as well.
But of course, in the value of things, they are smaller.
Would you say how many percent extra do the batteries, et cetera, give on the hybrid engines as compared to the engine alone?
No, I cannot say, because that depends also how big is the battery pack, so it varies by ship.
Okay. Too many moving parts, perhaps. Anyway, thank you.
Thank you, Erkki. Next question comes from Tom Skogman. Please go ahead, Tom.
Yeah. Thank you, Hanna-Maria. I would like to discuss a bit about the power plant situation, because it's quite clear that orders have not recovered like we have seen in most other, you know, engineering industries, including your own marine business. They have not really recovered after the pandemic, and they are like, you know, of what they used to be until 2018. What is, what is kind of really the missing part? I understand emerging markets have not come back, but is it, you know, change of kind of financing demands, you know, the World Bank, you know, proposing or supporting rather fossil-free power plants or, or... What is, what is kind of the, the missing part as you see it?
I would say what really needs to happen is the switch of coal, which is happening actually. But let's say I think it needs to happen in much bigger scale than what is happening today, because then you need backup power, and their thermal balancing power is kicking in. I would say that's the main thing.
I understand that. That is kind of what you know, we all hope for. But I mean, it's still a fact that you used to sell a lot of baseload power plants to emerging markets, oil exporting countries. The oil price is high again, you know, but they don't seem to order power plants from you like they used to. So has anything you know, changed that we should know about, you know, in kind of what Western banks you know, financing power plants in emerging markets, what they demand? Are they interested in financing you know, fossil power plants? I mean, there is this kind of risk for stranded assets with everything that is kind of running on fossil fuels, obviously, so.
I am not, I am not, let's say, consciously aware of any, let's say, big baseload power plants that we are negotiating where that is a, an issue. I think... That's also with many other customers as well. What customers do want is, want to understand that, let's say, "Can I convert my engine later on if there is hydrogen or if there is another fuel?" That, that is clearly a must-do or must-have, actually, and that's why we are working on, on, on, on all fuel solutions. If you ask me now that, is there any project you're working on where banks are refusing to finance, like, at least out of my head, I cannot say any one.
Why do you believe that the emerging market business has not recovered for power plant then? Because that seems to be the missing part, basically.
Now, that's a good question. If I had the answer, I would probably tell you. But let's say, I don't know. That I cannot say. But I can ask definitely in our energy business, perhaps come back on that.
I guess, I mean, the interest rate is one factor, you know, that-
Yeah, interest rate is one factor, but let's say there is a need for power, and we have seen a few cases where there is a reapproval of the respective board that needs to take that decision to build that power plant. But nothing gets really canceled. It's then more dragging in time than anything else.
Okay.
So why is there not more demand for energy or, let's say, building baseload power plants? It's a good question. I need to check.
Have you seen any data on, you know, these, you know, the countries that used to be large for you earlier, you know, how they advance with, you know, solar panels and with windmills? It's simply that they prioritize that at the moment.
I think that's clearly the case. Let's say there is a priority to, let's say, renewable energy, because it's also the cheapest form of generating electricity. But at some point of time, you need something to cover for intermittency. So even though, let's say, emerging markets, not massively, but they are also starting to move into, let's say, renewable energy, but there is a long way to go before they switch off, let's say, the baseload that they have today and switch to thermal balancing power. While at the same time, if you take countries like, let's say, Indonesia, for example, there is still a lot of activity there also on, for example, baseload power plants.
In the U.S., are you fully compliant with IRA, given that you have engine manufacturing only in Europe?
No, I would say we are not, let's say, benefiting directly from the IRA on the engine side. Let's say that's more indirectly, let's say, because IRA will drive renewable energy. Renewable energy, once coal is being switched off, you need balancing power, and then, of course, you have storage and, and, and engines coming in, depending on how long balancing power is needed.
But gas turbines are made in the U.S., so I don't know whether that is a challenge for you, that you know, a substitute product is made local in the U.S.
Yeah, that could be, but I'm not sure how far they are on that one yet, also when it comes to, let's say, direct impact from IRA to turbines.
Yeah. All right. Thank you.
Thank you, Tom. Next question comes from Antti Kansanen.
Thanks. A couple of questions still on the power plant side, one short term and one maybe longer term. And Arjen, sorry if you mentioned this already, but just looking into kind of revenues and fixed cost absorption in H2 of the power plant side, how... Is it a substantial drop on kind of revenues out of backlog because of the weak order intake? Is that something that we should really kind of be conscious on, not to get overexcited on the profitability prospects on all of the other things that are moving on the right direction?
No, I would not immediately say so. I think that there is, of course, always... Let's say we have been rather low on the thermal side when it comes to ordering-
Mm-hmm
... compared to, let's say, several years ago. There is lots of things happening in the market. There is uncertainty, there is all kind of other, let's say, influences playing a, a role as well. We believe that it will return. I'm, I'm fairly confident that, let's say, we will play a big role in the balancing power of the world, let's say, and timing, as I said many times before, is a, is a difficult thing to, to really be precise on, because we have been talking about thermal balancing power, I think, already since 2016. It is happening, speed is always difficult, and, and yeah. I would say factory load is still quite okay.
I'm not totally pessimistic about that, and I think the fact that we took the decision to close Trieste, I think, was the right decision... at the right time, and with hindsight, I think it was even better this timing. We could not have done it in a better way, actually, looking at how the market has developed.
Okay. The second question was maybe on kind of the demand outlook and kind of the postponements. I mean, you seem to be quite confident on that something will come in your book still in, whether it be Q4 or Q1, but isn't there quite a concern that this kind of interest rate hike will lead to much more substantial postponements? I mean, the demand side for power generation is not really boomingly growing right now. The rates are going up, and you see kind of a lot of negative news flow, even with the renewable space in the U.S. and so forth. What, what's really behind that confidence? Is there any way to open up what are the business cases on the orders that you are close to signing or anything more concrete?
Let's say my confidence is based on, let's say, what I hear from, let's say our sales organization or energy organization, and also, let's say, how we see the pipeline develop, and that's where I base my statement on. What happens out there? Yes, for sure, there are cases, as I mentioned before, that due to interest rate increases, let's say things need to be recalculated, business cases, I mean, on the customer side, needs reapproval, et cetera, et cetera. So that's clearly happening out there. But let's say I base my comments on what we are working on and how confident, let's say, our sales organization is in taking those orders home.
All right. Very clear. Thank you.
Thank you, Antti. The next question comes from Johan Eliason.
Yeah, very brief while I have you on the line here. A few years ago, Volkswagen MAN Diesel was sort of up for sale, and you said you would be interested in the two-stroke part of the business. I haven't followed the situation. Is it still for sale? So what's happening with this? Or would you still be interested?
No, I don't. At least to our knowledge, it's not for sale at the moment. I think Volkswagen has said some, when was it? Two years ago, that if MAN can hold a certain level of profitability or reach a certain level of profitability, Volkswagen will hold on to it at least until 2024. So might be that things change in 2024, but so far that has not changed, at least to our knowledge.
Okay. Thank you.
But yeah, if it would be available, definitely we are interested. That's our cup of tea. That we know.
Yep. Good. Thanks.
Thank you. Then the next question comes from Marissa Fu Huiling. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Could you talk to us about where the order book for energy products, especially thermal balancing storage, is growing fastest from a geographical perspective? There's some concern about Germany's lack of baseload capacity, so if you could speak to orders from that country specifically.
I would say most activity, are you talking storage now or thermal balancing power?
Either. Where you see the most activity.
I would say that on storage side, we see most activity, I would say U.S., or let's say North America in general, Europe, Australia, Asia. That's I think where we see most, most activity. When you think about, let's say, thermal balancing power, I would almost repeat the same, same places, actually. It's more in the, call it, Western world, mainly.
Understand. Thank you.
Thank you. Now, I do not see any thumbs up, but in the case somebody has a question, please use Raise Your Hand functionality. Seems like that there are no further questions, so thank you, Arjen.
Thank you.
Thank you for active participation and good questions, everybody. Thank you.
Thank you.
All right. Thank you.