Hi, Johan. How is Stockholm?
Hi there. Well, it's very white.
Oh! Likewise here.
Yes.
Very good.
I'm sure. I, I think you have even colder than we have in Stockholm, actually, so we're fine. It's just 5-6 degrees minus, but it's been snowing a lot, so-
Mm. But that's nothing.
Christmas weather.
Yeah. We have now -13, and that's only because I think it was just a moment ago, it was -25.
Oh, yeah.
Nice morning exercise to walk here.
I can imagine. You don't get warm.
Actually, I was very solid, so I was feeling that it's quite warm. Hi, Sean. There may be still some people joining, but I believe that it's time to start. So first of all, Happy New Year, everybody. I hope that the year has started well, and you enjoyed also a small Christmas break. So, like earlier, Arjen Berends, our Chief Financial Officer, he will start with a short summary of key messages, and then we will continue with the Q&A. And I know that some of you have had problems to or, you know, you cannot use Teams for various reasons. So in the case you have questions you want to ask, you can also send those questions to me by email, so I can then raise those to Arjen in the case those are not raised by somebody else.
Let's start, Arjen, please.
All right. Thank you, Hanna-Maria, and also Happy New Year on my behalf. So first of all, a few messages. Okay, what did we see in Q4? We saw basically that the market sentiment remained fairly positive for us, despite, let's say, more overall challenging market environment. But, let's say, our markets at least performed rather okay. Order intake Q4 developed in line with our own expectations, so that's okay. Regarding our statement that EPP order intakes or engine power plant order intake in second half of this year would be higher than in the first half of the year, that also holds, at least by the outlook of today.
Regarding sales development, I think it's important to remember that the remaining order book after Q3 for the remainder of this year was heavily tilted towards 2024 and beyond. So that, of course, has an impact to sales numbers as well. Moving on, if we look at the energy market, both in storage and thermal markets, we continue to have a good pipeline. The market for storage solutions has continued to be active in Q4, although, let's say, competition is not easy. It's still actually quite intense, but I think that goes basically for any markets that we are operating in. But pipeline development is good.
Also in power plants, thermal power plants, as I mentioned, the second half looks to be stronger than the first half, so that's also in line with what we expected. As we communicated at the CMD, we have shifted more, let's say, the focus from EPC to EEQ. That already some statistics were shown at the Capital Markets Day. Then if you look at now the situation going into 2024, we see, okay, there's still a bit, let's say, tuning, but about 80% of our order book going into 2024 is EEQ, compared to 40% when we went into 2023, so one year ago. In the marine markets, the limited yard capacity, which also drives, let's say, increased costs of new ships, actually, that continues to be there.
We believe that the low point of yard capacity was last year. Sorry, actually 2022. I'm still living in 2023 because of closing. But in 2022, we hear more and more, let's say, talks about extensions of capacities happening. But of course, this will take time to be really significant. If you look at Clarkson, let's say 2023 contracting is expected to be lower than 2022, especially in our key segments. Okay, let's see what the end result is when Clarkson publishes the numbers for the last quarter, actually. But as communicated in our CMD, the expectation going forward is clearly growth, in particular for our, let's say, addressable market or key addressable markets, cruise and ferry, gas carriers, offshore, and special vessels.
The expected growth is about 11% annually until 2030. Service business, I would say in both marine and energy, moving well forward. Nothing to complain about, that goes well. What else to highlight? Okay, perhaps as a bit of a reminder, as you know, we have announced, let's say, changes in the organizational structure, so this quarter will be the last time we report Marine Systems. Gas Solutions, as well as Marine Electrical Systems that were part of Marine Systems, they will move to Portfolio Business to be divested in the future. And the remaining businesses, Shaft Line Solutions and Exhaust Treatment, will be merged into Marine Power, and actually that is now from the first of January, renamed to be Marine.
So we have, going forward, let's say, two divisions, basically, energy and marine, and then Portfolio Business, which will over time, disappear. One key milestone I would like to highlight is, of course, the launch of our ammonia engine that we did in Q4. That's a really key milestone for us in our decarbonization journey, and then it was well-recognized by the market as well. I would say that's in short, what I wanted to highlight.
Thank you, Arjen. Then let's continue with the Q&A. In the case you have a question, please use raise your hand functionality, or in the case you cannot use it, please send me an email. First question comes from Max. Max Yates, I guess. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Hi. Hi, Arjen. Hi, Hanna-Maria. Could I just ask a little bit around the comments on the sales? Because I guess you were at a very high level last year. So, I mean, should our interpretation be that sort of sales are unlikely to reach the level where they were in the prior year? Is that what you're kinda trying to message? And I guess then an extension of that, I mean, there's obviously a huge amount of moving parts around margins, potentially kind of lower sales. I think mix will probably be more skewed towards equipment, but then you have less of the lower margin backlog. So just remind us kind of how we should think, maybe sort of qualitatively, about the margin improvement going into Q4.
Is it right to think that we get a kind of normal seasonal pickup that we've come to expect in the fourth quarter? Just some comments around that would be helpful.
Thanks for the question. Let's say we are not guiding on margins, nor sales. But of course, everybody can calculate, let's say, also historically, let's say, what was Q3 year-to-date sales, and then look at the order book for this year to remain at that point of time, and then see, okay, where is sales going to land? I would say sales is not far off from, let's say, our expectations, so in that sense, I'm quite okay with it. Like I said, I will not guide on, let's say, margin development, but clearly, let's say, the actions that we have taken, and then, of course, it depends a lot on mix as well, let's say, service and equipment, and that how it will develop.
But the actions that we have taken, let's say with Trieste, okay, it's not fully bearing fruit, but also moving up the service value ladder clearly are supportive of margin growth as well.
Could I just ask one more question? I mean, obviously, kind of we've talked a lot about lithium costs and the cost of batteries and how that's affected kind of your business. I think the industry had a... I forget exactly when it was a bit of a reset, as we had to kind of readjust to high lithium prices. How is what we're seeing at the moment affecting the storage industry, and how is that sort of coming through in customer conversations with customers? Are we having a sort of reset the other way?
This was about, I would say it's Q2 last year, I think, when this was, let's say, a very hot item, so to say. I would say that has stabilized pretty much. Let's say we have also, in our contracting, implemented, let's say, indexes related to, let's say, lithium prices. So, as we have learned the hard way, basically, we don't want to be the sponge in the middle when suddenly, let's say, prices of lithium go up and battery prices change, when we have sold something. So this is mitigating that part pretty well. Let's say with lithium prices going up or down, it should not affect our margins too much.
It's not having a visible impact on orders or anything like that?
No. I think this is pretty much nowadays quite standard practice in the market, actually. We are not the only one implementing indexation. I think many have done it the same way.
If I can squeeze one more in, could you just comment on, kind of, since you obviously made that announcement around your storage business, can you comment at all on kind of the level of interest as your kind of phone been ringing off the hook from people in the U.S.? Or how would you characterize the reaction?
I will not comment on that.
Okay, understood. Thank you.
Thank you, Max. Next question comes from Johan Eliasson. Please go ahead.
Well, I think Max nailed most of my question, but I, I was just a bit, curious about, what we are seeing, you know, about the Red Sea and, and the ships having to go around Africa. I mean, we have no clue on how long this, this will, go on, and I'm sure it's not your key segments that are going through there anyhow, except the gas, maybe. But we had this situation a few years ago with a ship that got stuck. Did that have any sort of impact on your service sales or, or anything else? Would you say if it's a short-term impact, and what could the potential long-term impact be, if any, for you?
I would-
If you know.
At least I don't foresee, let's say, major impact. In fact, if vessels sail all the way down to Africa or around Africa, basically, then yeah, service business correlates with running hours, so it's more running hours. So I would rather say from that angle, it might be more positive than negative. Of course, let's say there are items... I think that the challenge will be more in us delivering to Asian yards, for example, or supply chain equipment that needs to come to our factories in Europe. I think that's where the disturbance is most. But let's say from a service/running hours perspective, I would say it's more positive than negative, probably.
Okay. And is there any particular we should consider when thinking about your dividend potential? I mean, your balance sheet is pretty strong, and you have your policy. There's no reason to see any deviation from that, I guess.
No, I, we, let's say, like we stated in our financial targets, I think we will comply to that. And then, of course, it's up to the board to decide, in due course, let's say, how high that level is. But we will, let's say, meet our financial targets.
Excellent. Thank you.
Thank you, Johan. Next question comes from Sven Weier. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks, Hanna-Maria, and hi, Arjen. First one is on service pipeline. You spoke about the project activity and energy. Was just wondering, obviously, the last three years, we had very strong growth in service orders and sales. How do you see the pipeline that you can see on the service side, probably especially on the retrofits?
Yeah, I would say that's developing well. Let's say there is lots of things in the pipeline as well. At the time, let's say it's a bit different for energy and marine. Let's say, what kind of retrofit projects do you see? Let's say, converting from, let's say, diesel to, for example, LNG, running, that can be one on the retrofit. But there are other retrofits possibilities as well related to decarbonization, putting EnergoProFin in or, or other, let's say, energy-saving devices. Hybridization is clearly a retrofit kind of activity as well. So there are lots of different ones. I would say, in general, I think we are in front of something bigger than what it is today. And definitely thinking about decarbonization on the marine side, I think that's mostly obvious.
Let's say, carbon capture and all of that. And then also the fact that, let's say, the fuel cost in the future will be more expensive than the fuel cost today. Everybody is well aware of that. So anything that can save fuel is, I would say, high in demand. And also looking at the pipeline, we can clearly see it. Is it coming out in the big masses? I don't think so yet, and that's why I say, okay, I think we are in front of something big, but let's say, exactly when and how big, it's a bit difficult to say. But goes well forward, I would say.
Yeah, thank you. The second question was just on the big tickets you got on the Gas Solutions side, which I guess is obviously one of the businesses you wanna get out. Is that something that changes your mind, the sheer activity in the market, or-
No.
Any impact?
No, it will not change our mind. No. Let's say there's a strategic consideration has been made, and this is not, let's say, strategically relevant or super fitting to our, our strategy, which is about, let's say, decarbonization, as well as, let's say, moving up the Service Value Ladder. And based on those main criteria, we have said that, okay, Gas solutions can probably find a better home somewhere else.
Would you say that the order activity outside Gas Solutions has lived up to your expectations as well?
You mean in the Portfolio Businesses or?
No, in the core business, the core marine business.
Yeah, yeah, definitely. Let's say, I think, like I said, the order intake in Q4 was well in line with our own expectations, so I'm fairly okay with that. Yes.
Okay, sounds good. Thank you, Ein.
Thank you, Sven. Next question comes from Mikael Doepel. Please go ahead, Mikael.
Thank you. Hi, and a Happy New Year.
Happy New Year.
So, regarding the Vaasa unit, is all engine manufacturing now centralized to Vaasa? And when should we expect to see the full positive effect of one factory solution going forward?
You could say that all manufacturing of engines is already in Vaasa when you think about Europe. So we are not producing any engines anymore in Trieste, even though, let's say, the process in Trieste closing the whole facility is still ongoing. And I think that's also one of the, let's say, key determining factors to come to your next part of your question. It's okay, when do we see the full benefit? We need to close that one first. And it's a heavy process taking much more time than we originally anticipated. Unfortunately, let's say, when we announced the closure of the manufacturing there, it happened at the same time as the Italian government fell. So our case became, let's say, political and domestic region and local level, which doesn't make the case easier.
I think we will get it to an end. We will not reverse the decision, that's clear. But we need to make sure that we follow the steps in the right sequence and order, in order not to get stuck. I'm pretty convinced that we will close it in 2024, but timing is extremely difficult to say. I said in the beginning, we thought this would happen already, last year. We are still working on it. Coming back to the first part of your question, then, yes, European manufacturing is mostly, or is only centralized in Vaasa. We have, of course, also other joint venture manufacturing locations in China, two, actually. So two joint ventures in China are also producing engines.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Mika. Next question comes from Akash Gupta. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for your time. I have just one, which is on storage. You said the storage was active in Q4 in terms of order activity and competition is intense. The question is on competition. Have you seen the degree of competition has gone up or stable sequentially versus, let's say, Q2, Q3, level that you have seen? And maybe if you can comment also about pricing, if you can. Thank you.
Okay. I will not comment on pricing, but let's say the competition, I would say, has been always, let's say, already for a long time, been very fierce. We are in a growth market. There are always, let's say, new parties entering as well, so you really need to be on the ball. Having said that, let's say there is a lot of opportunity out there, so, despite, let's say, heavy competition, I think we will take a fair share of the market as well. And, yeah, growth numbers should show that. So I wouldn't say from Q3 to Q4, it's a huge change in competition. I think competition has been fierce already for a long time.
Maybe a follow-up. One of your U.S. competitor disclosed some legal issues with one of the customers. Do you think this is something that can benefit other companies who has better track record, and particularly you, who has no issues of any terminal incident in your storage portfolio? Thank you.
Yeah, I think, let's say, of course, let's say if companies have issues, that's not good for reputation. So typically, let's say the ones that don't have the issues benefit somehow from it. Let's say, to quantify it is extremely difficult to say, because then you need to look into the head of customers and what are their considerations. Are they going more for reliability or low price or what is their main focus? But clearly, let's say, not having any issues is a clear benefit in the market, and people see that.
Then the next question comes from Anders Roslund. Please go ahead.
Sorry. Yes, hello. I have one question regarding marine and the outlook here by Clarkson. If I look at your latest presentation from December, based on Clarkson outlook for September, and I look at the 2022 figures, they now believe that you will have roughly 2,000 vessels ordered for 2022. I'm not talking about 2023, I'm talking about 2022. If I go one year back at the presentation in December 2022, and look at the similar Clarkson presentation, they had an outlook for 2022 of roughly 1,400 vessels. So in one year, Clarkson has revised up their 2022 figures from 1,400 vessels up to 2,000 vessels. I know there is a important problem, this after reporting, but I assume that Clarkson should, to some extent, include after reporting in their estimates.
But to miss a forecast for 2022 by roughly 50% in the existing year, why should we pay any attention to that they believe that, that demand will fall now somewhat in 2022 versus 2022 when they do have this... We could go backwards and look at the 2021 figures, also presentation, in the, the Clarksons estimates for, for September, presented in September 2023 and 2022. So what I'm saying, that's one question. But the second question is, if you see the order intake 2023, do that reflect this, order level of roughly 2,000 vessels, 2022? Or what sort of order, yard interacting is reflected in your, order intake 2023 in the marine segment? I mean, it has been stronger than expected. Most analysts have revised up the estimates for Braemar based on the order intake in the marine.
How should we think for 2024 when it comes to the order intake?
Okay, thank you. It's a lot of questions and comment. Let's say, first of all, I cannot comment, let's say, Clarkson. Let's say they are making their predictions. It's the best, most, encompassing, let's say, statistics in the market. So whether they are right or wrong, yeah, that is something I have no influence on. There is for sure, let's say, always this late ordering or late info coming to them, which they correct later on. Then to your next question, let's say, is our order intake reflected on the 2,000 vessels or something else? I cannot answer that either, because, let's say, I don't know the actual statistics of that year yet, 2023.
So it, let's say it's the order intake that we see and that we have booked, and it relates to whatever finally comes out as the number of contracted vessels. Is it the 1,400 today and might be revised to 2,000 later or 1,600 later? I cannot say. That I, I simply don't have that knowledge, nor anybody else in the company has that knowledge.
... No, because your outlook used to be stable when it comes to the marine part.
Mm.
That was what you believed last year as well. And obviously, 2023 order intake-wise, has been much stronger than expected.
Mm.
So there seems to be quite poor visibility. And then my last question here is: the fact that you now, and also your competitors, introduce new fuel technologies, and that's going to be part of the future, could that drive growth? Could it change the behavior among shipowners to continue ordering on the new high levels?
I would say, looking at the fact that, let's say, there is very limited yard capacity and to the fact that, let's say, in the whole journey of decarbonization, a lot of the vessels need to be replaced. I think I mentioned in earlier meetings as well, that, let's say, the average age of, let's say, the ferry fleet, for example, is 25+ years . There needs to happen a lot in order to meet, let's say, regulatory requirements. CII has been kicking in last year. It gives an opportunity for customers to indicate, I want my ship or my goods to be transported with a ship classified worse, AB, whatever they say. I think there are many indicators hinting in the direction that there will be a need for a replacement.
Mm.
Because a very old vessel, would you retrofit it with five years to go? Depending on the cost, of course, what you implement, you might say, that's probably not the smartest solution, because I will not-
Mm.
So if there would be more yard capacity, I think there would be more replacement coming. But I think that's the fact that it needs to, let's say, move a little bit in the more favorable direction. And as I mentioned in the beginning, at least from what we know, is that the low point of yard capacity was 2022.
Okay. Mm-hmm.
It has been, let's say, growing, but of course, this doesn't come overnight. Let's say, building new yard capacity out takes typically a couple of years. So I think they are very well... I think also yards are very well aware that there is an opportunity out there-
Mm
and want to catch that. So I think they are preparing for it. That's why I also say that, okay, I think we are in front of something big. Timing is difficult to say.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Then the next question comes from Antti Kansanen. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Hanna, and happy New Year from my behalf as well. Just a detailed question on the energy side, something that you, Arjen, said about the business shifting more towards EEQ versus EPC. So kind of what’s the impact on the ticket sizes? I mean, how large portion is the one that you are not making today? And just from modeling perspective, what’s the impact on delivery margins?
I would say margins are, let's say, not so different, I would say. But let's say, of course, on the sales side, it's a clear difference. Let's say, it depends a bit on, let's say, how big and large is the scope, but let's say from a sales perspective, on a project level, we talk about 20%-30% delta.
Yeah.
That clearly is different.
Okay, and then a follow-up on that one. When you mentioned that the demand or the orders on second half are higher, are you referring to euros or megawatts in?
Euros.
Okay. Thanks. That's all from me.
Thank you, Antti. The next question comes from Erkki Vesola. Please go ahead.
Hi, Hanna and Arjen.
Hello.
Happy New Year.
Same to you.
Just, just talking about the general, possible general strike in industry in Finland. Okay, it may be short-lived, but if that materializes, how is Wärtsilä prepared, and how long a strike could you take without having meaningful impact on your deliveries and operations in general?
Yeah, I must say that's a difficult one for me to answer. Let's say, if and when and how long, that's all questions out there. So, I'm sure, let's say that, let's say if it's a week or... Then I think we will be able to recover. But, let's say, if it's a month, then it's more difficult. So I think the longer it takes, the more difficult it is to recover. But that's all I can say. It's too many open ends on it.
Can you prepare for this in any way?
Okay, let's say if, if you see it coming and you have, let's say, short-term deliveries, you can potentially, let's say, anticipate, let's say, certain, call it testing or assembly work to be done faster in order to get something which is really close to a deadline out. But typically, we are, I would say, pretty well in advance of a certain deadline, in particular now in, in Wärtsilä, because the factory is still in, in some kind of, let's say, a ramp-up stage. So we have some safety buffers, but let's say, not too long.
So it seems that you are not too concerned at this-
Not so concerned at this point of time, no.
Okay, very good. Thank you.
Thank you, Erkki. The next question comes from Johan Eliason.
Yeah, thanks again. I just wanted to follow up a little bit on, on, on storage. I understand you're not commenting on the process to whatever solutions that could be with this business, but just trying to understand it a little bit again. We discussed this at the Capital Markets Day to some extent. I mean, how independent is this business? This is something you've been trying to build over the past few years, and, and you've needed scale to get, to profitability, et cetera.
I suppose it works like, you know, you have a key account manager at the energy division that can sell the storage or the software or a power plant, you know, to his customers, and then, I guess you can sort of sell the storage product as it is, and it's sort of engineering and installation guys to an external entity. But does this entity need to be someone that already owns this utility type of clients? Can it be a PE with those out, sort of, no involvement whatsoever, et cetera? Or how independent basically is it? What is to be sold, if that is the avenue you will take eventually?
I would say it's pretty independent. Let's say if you think from a customer perspective, let's say we have no combined contracts, so we never sell, let's say, storage in combination with thermal balancing power, for example. It's always separate contracts. It's always... At least don't know of any case where it's happening at the same time, so that and they buy storage, and they buy thermal at the same time. It's always in sequence, typically for storage and then later, let's say, thermal balancing power. So in that sense, it's quite independent and let's say from customer point of view, no issue. Of course, let's say internally, we are utilizing resources, as you rightly reflected, let's say, be it salespeople, project managers, supply chain, controllers, many functions they can support, let's say either energy or marine.
Sorry, energy storage or engine power plants. That we, of course, utilize to the max. Let's say if there is a little bit lower load in EPP, engine power plants, let's use the resources on storage and vice versa. Because also, let's say this is not static in the year either. Let's say one quarter to another, it might change already. So in that sense, there is a lot of, let's say, yeah, joint, you could say, resources, but if it must be, I think it can be separated with not too much difficulty.
Would the software business be part of it, or would that be something you would keep, or are there any thoughts about that part of it?
No, let's say software, energy management software you need on both ends, so that needs to be solved, if so.
Okay. Yep, thank you.
Thank you, Johan. Next question comes from Max Yates. Max, we cannot hear you. Max, we still cannot hear you. It looks like that you are unmuted, but there may be a challenge with the voice. Let's do so that, Sven Weier, you can raise a question.
Hello.
Oh, okay, Max.
Sorry, can I speak on behalf of Max?
Yeah, please, please.
I don't hear it.
No, Max, we don't hear you.
Sorry, is the guidance on H2 in energy orders just thermal?
Yes.
Being up is just thermal?
Yes.
Yes.
That's what we mentioned earlier. Yes, correct.
So just thermal, are we?
Thermal order intake energy, second half is bigger than first half in euros.
Does it include service?
No.
Okay, great. Thank you so much.
Okay. Thank you. So then, Sven Weier, you are the next one. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you, Hanna. Just one follow-up question on the storage business, please. I was just wondering how high the U.S. sales share is and how much of the growth outlook you think is dependent on the IRA. Also asking the question, looking a little bit forward to political risk here, if Trump wins and might rewind some of the IRA, how that would affect the outlook? Thank you.
I will not open up on the exact numbers, as I don't have them in my head, let's say now, in particular for 2023. It's still being closed, the year. But of course, let's say US is one of the key markets that I can say. So definitely, let's say, it's a big country for us from storage perspective, and an important country for us. What will happen, let's say, if Trump gets elected, who knows? I cannot say. I think nobody can say. I hope he-
But I think a lot of the growth you had so far in the business was not related to IRA yet. It's more the forward-looking, right?
I think so, too. I think that's the, that's the main part. IRA impact, I would say, is not that big.
Yet.
Yet.
Okay. Thank you. Bye.
Thank you, Sven. Then I can see only one hand up, which is from Max. I'm not sure.
I guess it's the previous hand.
Yeah, this may be all thumb, so to say, but in the case somebody else has a question, we still have time, so please use raise your hand function or send me an email. It looks like that there are no-
Tommy Railo.
Email questions. Okay, Tomi, please.
... Yeah, hi, Hanna and Arjen, and it's Tomi here. Just a question coming back to the Capital Markets Day presentations and the profitability. You provide 10.5% for the core business. Calculating back the last 12 months, excluding the Gas Solutions, can you confirm that the Gas Solutions has been loss-making, and the remaining business to be transferred to the core Marine has been very high margin business, I mean, well above the group group margin levels?
I'm not confirming that. Let's say, that's part of Marine Systems today, and that's your assumption. You need to make your assumption. I'm not commenting on business unit-specific margins.
Okay. And secondly, a follow-up on the previous question. Thermal plant orders above first half in the second half, can you comment the levels for the storage?
Not yet.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you, Tomi. So the next question is coming from Sebastian Kuenne. Please.
Yeah, hi, everyone. Just a quick one. You have now the ammonia engine out, and hydrogen will follow next year or maybe in two years' time. Do you already see tender activities also? Do you already promote and try to sell these engines, or is it still early days? That's one question. And the other question is, since we don't have the ammonia refueling infrastructure, I think anywhere really, do you expect a good uptake on these engines? Is the clients expecting some infrastructure in the next ten, fifteen years and therefore already putting these engines in today? Thank you very much.
Let's say, I guess your question about tendering was more related to hydrogen and energy. No, we are not selling those engines yet. First, we need to have the concept ready. When it comes to, let's say, ammonia, yes, let's say we have launched it, so we are actively selling, let's say, ammonia engines. But yes, you are fully right. It depends on the infrastructure development as well and producing fuels at scale. And as long as... But, let's say, meanwhile, let's say other fuels can be used as well in those engines. All engines typically are multi-fuel, so if the ammonia is not available, they can also run on other fuels.
If you think about ammonia, I think, for example, a location like, like Norway is heavily investing in, in ammonia, and I think there, it might probably go first to a bigger scale.
Maybe a follow-up. Since these engines are all multi-fuel anyways, do you have a rough idea of efficiency, your efficiency, let's say, lead versus Rolls-Royce or MAN and other makers of four-stroke multi-fuel engines? Do you have some idea whether or not you're actually leading in terms of efficiency per kilowatt output?
On Ammonia engines, I cannot say, because we are the only one out there with an Ammonia engine, so nobody else has it, so it's very difficult.
Yeah, ammonia, yeah. But for the other—for the conventional multi-fuel four-stroke engines.
I think we are front-running, otherwise we would not have a 50% market share on four-stroke main engines.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Sebastian. Next question comes from Erkki Vesola. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks. It's Erkki again. In Q3, your contract-based services, they grew nicely and faster than other services. Can you confirm if this has been the case also in Q4?
Sorry, I missed the first part of your question. Can you, can you repeat?
Contract-based services.
Okay.
The h-
Agre-
higher margin part.
Agreements, sorry.
Services revenue, I mean, because they, according to my calculation, they grew faster than other services in Q3, and has this continued in Q4?
I'm not sure what you mean, actually. Yeah.
Yeah, I-
Contract-based services.
Yeah. What do Erkki mean? Can you elaborate that little bit?
contract-based services or-
Ag-
or agreement, or agreement-based services.
Agreements.
Because contract-based services, we don't have that kind of category. I'm just in our internet-
No
... presentation, double-checking the vocabulary there. So-
But you're referring to agreements or?
Agreements, yes, okay. It's a synonym to that.
Your question was about Quarter 4?
Yes.
Yeah, but that I will not comment. We are, we are working on closing Quarter 4, so that will be coming later when we publish the results.
Yes, I was just trying to get a glimpse of the mix-
Mm-hmm
... services mix in Q4, but you're not opening that.
No.
It's still-
It's still, still in the work. I even don't know it exactly myself. Yeah.
Okay, very good. Thank you.
Thank you, Erkki. Then, Tomi Railo has raised his hand. Please go ahead, Tomi.
Old hand. Sorry.
No worries. And then Sebastian Kuenne, is this also rule of thumb, so to speak, or?
It is, yeah. Sorry.
Okay, no worries. Then Anders Roslund?
... Yes, I have a new question here.
Great. Thank you.
That is regarding the multi-fuel engines. How are they doing in the energy field, and what do you look forward to there?
I would say in the energy space, it's mainly, let's say, still, HFO and LNG, mostly. But let's say, there are talks about, or at least some customers have spoken about ammonia, but let's say it's not very active right now on, on the energy side. And of course, the future, I, I think, will be more about, let's say, once we have the hydrogen engines out, I think that will be more talked about in the energy side. But so far, it's basically, let's say, call it the traditional fossil fuels.
Yeah.
LNG being the most focused one.
Okay. Yeah, thank you.
Thank you, Anders.
You're welcome.
Then Sebastian has raised a new hand now, I assume.
Yeah. I have a follow-up on the Trieste topic. I think the initial plan was to close production in January 2023. Now it's 2024, and you say you'll, you likely will exit Trieste in 2024. These additional costs that you have, and people that are on the payroll, is this all still covered with the initial provisions that you made, I think, Q3, 2022?
Yes. When we launched this, we stated that it would be about EUR 130 million of items affecting comparability. We are still within that frame. That's still our estimation.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Sebastian. Any other questions? I don't see any thumbs up at the moment. No questions on the email either. Okay, now there's one question by email. In December, COSCO has announced a deal with Wärtsilä, covering four of their container ships in the fleet to retrofit the main engines with ammonia dual fuel engines. Can you please provide me some color on the order? Were these ships equipped originally with Wärtsilä four-stroke engines, or are you displacing a competitor? Does the agreement include an option for additional vessels? So COSCO has announced this deal with us.
I don't know.
Yeah.
But I think we need to come back to that.
Yeah, and we haven't announced this, so-
No.
Yeah. So thank you for the question. Unfortunately, as long as we have not announced this, we cannot-
Mm
... comment this. Anything else? Questions from somebody else? It seems like- Oh, no, Tomi Railo. Yeah, please go ahead, Tomi.
Yeah, and sorry about that. Maybe just wondering the early thoughts into this year, 2024. I think you have provided some color, but maybe the positives and negatives in terms of financial performance for this year.
Yeah, I would believe, like I said earlier, I think we are in front of something big. Let's see how much of that will materialize in 2024. Clearly, the market fundamentals, let's say, decarbonization, regulation, moving up the service value ladder, I think are very well embedded in our strategy. And also, the market, I think, is supporting that. Decarbonization makes installations more complex, so I would also assume that, OEM loyalty, et cetera, will go up. We saw it clearly, and we see it clearly also in agreement renewals, more than 90% on both ends. So I think we are doing the right things.
I think the market fundamental with in particular decarbonization regulation being tighter fuel prices going up for new fuels but also let's say for existing fuels also driven for example by ETS and examples were in the CMD material. I think I'm positive, actually. It's not negative. Of course, it could always be better. Let's say, like we discussed earlier, yard capacity would be great if there would be more. But I see good opportunities for this year.
And a follow-up in terms of profitability. I mean, the movers, have we sort of passed the inflation peak? Other cost items, materials, service growth, supporting profitability, and so on.
Let's say, like we mentioned already at Q3, let's say, this order book that was hit by extraordinary cost inflation, that was delivered already by the end of Q3, so that's clearly out. You will always have a certain level of inflation that you need to cover. I consider it more like normal business today than anything extraordinary that we have seen, for example, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict started, and everything went through the roof, basically. I think those times are over.
Thank you.
Thank you. Then, next question comes from Erkki Vesola.
Yes, thanks. And regarding interest rates, how much of the projects customers currently have on their drawing board will receive a green light, thanks to lower interest rates? What's your take on this? Do you foresee a big impact or a minor one?
That's a very difficult question because it, it's so much... Let's say customers are global, so it happens all over the place, and considerations are also different. If you take an engine, or let's say an engine power plant, doesn't matter which one, actually, if you need the energy, or if you want to face a blackout, I think the choices are not that much to postpone. So I'm not sure how much the interest rate will itself drive the decision. It might be, and we have seen it in a few cases as well, that because of interest rates going up earlier, that, let's say, there needs to be an extra round with the customers' board of directors to get the business case approved and stuff like that.
That can happen, but the cancellations, we have not seen due to that reason.
So to sum it up, you expect some positive impact, but it's very difficult to quantify?
Yeah, exactly. It's very difficult to say how much that is.
Okay. Very good. Thank you.
In general, lower interest rates, of course, help. That's clear.
Okay. It seems like there are no further questions, so thank you, Arjen, and thank you all for great dialogue and active Q&As.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Bye.