Shimao Group Holdings Limited (HKG:0813)
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Earnings Call: H1 2021

Aug 30, 2021

Tang Fei
Executive Director, Shimao Group

For comparison with the counterparties in the industry. Altogether, t he closing price, the dividend yield. Deposit is 82 points. In the beginning of this year, we have interest rate 3.45% bond U.S. dollars. In April this year, four year maturity, $1.3 billion U.S. dollars bond is issued, and the interest rate is 2.95%. This has been actively participated by the home and domestic institutions. We have a very diversified and sustained financing channel. By the end of this year, we have kept good cooperation and in a stable way with over 60 institutions, and we have general to general cooperations with them. The long history of robust performance has given us a very positive requirement from the rating institutions.

In the first half of this year, in April, we have got the upgrading from Standard & Poor's, and Fitch Ratings has kept the investment grade, and Moody's also has a good positive result. For the domestic, we have got the highest level, that is the AAA ratings. We also have a very stringent financial management and the strong capacity of risk management. The executive level pay great attention to the regulatory requirements keeping. We also have a very stringent management and dynamic monitoring of all the indicators to have the assessment of all the risks. For the risk, we have great achievements on the recollection of the cash, and we also allocated to the different regions and projects to guarantee the cash supply for the different projects. The headquarters also have the concentrated management and control for the cash flow and the allocation.

For the investment management, we are disciplined in choosing the approach, like the investment and prudent land acquisition. We also have the dynamic adjustment of the timing of the investment, and this is very important for the risk resistance. In the first half this year, we have kept the green line for all the three sectors, and the liability ratio is 68%, exclude the receipts in advance. The net gearing ratio is 50.9%. The cash to current borrowing is 1.9, and the non-property development revenue to interest is 1.5x , and this is very good for the stability and security of the cash. We also respect the regulations and market to improve the corporate image. We have been attaching great importance to the investors' concerns as well as communication with investors, and we use the concalls and other ways to maintain the positive communication and exchange with investors.

We also have built a healthy mechanism for the communication and try to create values to the investors. We also have a better performance on the repurchase, and to protect the small shareholders, and to buy more for the big shareholders. Also, we pay great attention to the yield and return requirements from the investors and to demonstrate the value of the investment. We also have got honored because of this. We have got the honored company from the institutional investor, and we are the nominee for the best IR company in the Greater China by the IR Magazine Awards. Now I will report on the ESG. Please look at page 11. Shimao Group pay great attention to ESG. While we realize the financial performance, we also pay great attention to the social responsibility and try to get the sustainable development.

The green building is very important for carbon neutrality for the construction industry. We pay great attention to sustainable development and build the green buildings, green communities, and to enable sustainable development for the community. By the end of this year, the total area of green buildings developed by Shimao has reached 393 buildings, with an area of 73 million sq m. We are at the top in leading the industry, for example, like Hangzhou Shimao Riverfront Wisdom Towers, who got the recognition awarded by the LEED and WELL certifications. We can save the carbon dioxide emissions by 3,297 tons. In the future, Shimao Group will continue on this path on green technology development and promoting the grounding of green projects so that we can save energy for high effectiveness. Next page, please.

With great love, we will pay back to the society. We devote ourselves into charity business, dedicated to charity for over 20 years with accumulated donations of more than CNY 1.75 billion and over 22 million beneficiaries, contributing as always to targeted poverty alleviation, cultural protection, harmony in Hong Kong and other sectors. At the end of July, there was a flood in Henan, and we have donated 20 million Hong Kong dollars to the whole noble cause. Next page, please. Continuously, we enhance the ecosystem of anti-corruption. We are one of the 10 founding members of China Enterprise Anti-Fraud Alliance, and we have established the risk management system, internal control system, internal compliance system, a whole series of anti-corruption system for the supporting of the company's development. I would like to call it an end for the results review and ESG.

Mr. Shao, you have the floor for the business review.

Shao Liang
Group VP, Shimao Group

Dear investors, good afternoon. I would like to report to you about the future outlook and the business review. Footpoint one on page 15, please. In the first half, we have a steady development with sustainable quality growth, contracted sales reaching CNY 152.8 billion, with a YoY increase of 38% and higher than the top 10 average. Contracted areas, 8.610 million sq m with a YoY of 37%. The cash collection is CNY 116.1 billion with a YoY increase of 30.4%. Next page, please. We have a very good starting with acceleration. In the first quarter compared with YoY, we have good performance in quarter one and quarter two. The sell-through rate is more than 50%. By the end of June, we have already finished 46% of the annual target, and with 11% higher than last year.

That paved a good foundation for the CNY 330 billion targets of the whole year. Next page. In terms of empowerment, we have signed projects in Jiangsu and Shanghai Special Region with a contribution of CNY 32 billion, and Zhejiang Special Region with a contribution of CNY 30 billion, Straits Provincial Region, CNY 60 billion contribution. Three core special regions accounted for 80% of the total sales, which drive the fast development of the group. We try to have further development in first and second-tier and strong third-tier cities, altogether accounted for 90%, same as 2020. The top 15 core popular cities contributed CNY 85 billion in sales. Next page, please. Well-crafted products and crafting for quality and improving operation efficiency. This year, we have adhered to the product-oriented philosophy and continues its research, such as Beijing Shimao Sunny Mansion.

On rebuilding this product, we have reached ASP over CNY 130,000 . Shimao Beijing Honor of China, and we have built an integration of technology and lifestyle with sales of CNY 5.5 billion . In Hangzhou Classic Chinese Chic sales in the first half, our sales achieved CNY 2 billion . We have created a synergy among all those projects. The company also accelerates the turnover of popular projects to pursue greater contributions to the results, like Hangzhou Classic Chinese Chic initial sale. In seven months, we sold out in the initial sale, with second round offered in the same month. Another project, Shanghai Natural City, sold out in the initial sale, recording a daily sales of more than CNY 2 billion, rapid cash collection of more than 50% in three days. We have also Wuhan Endless Future and Quzhou Classic Chinese Chic.

With sufficient supply, we have achieved more than CNY 2 billion in sales, which pays a good foundation for further development. In terms of the investment in the first half, Shimao acquired 19 parcels of land with total land cost at approximately CNY 20.1 billion, covering a GFA of 3.01 million sq m, and 62% of sellable value of newly acquired land located in the first and second-tier cities. The proportion would surge to 94% if strong third and fourth-tier cities are included. In this way, we can make sure a robust development and increase of the business. Next page, please. In terms of land bank in the first half, we have high quality in landmark and stable landmark. In those core cities, up to the middle of the year 2021, we have achieved the value at over CNY 1.180 trillion to meet growing demand in the future.

That provide us a great support. We keep on focusing along the coastal area and deep development in the core cities. Right now, 74% of the landmark are located in the first and second-tier cities, and most of the resources are in the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area. Right now, we have property under construction is 50.7 million sq m, and altogether, the land bank is accumulated at high quality. The future outlook. In the second half, we predict that the resources will be around CNY 360 billion, so we can realize CNY 330 billion on targets of the whole year. In the second half, our sellable resources will be largely increased with a good layout, and that will be mostly in first-tier and second-tier cities with great sellable resources and value, so that provide us the advantage. The residential will be 72% of the total.

For residential or complex, these resources will be in those hot cities, popular cities. This one year or two year new resources would be CNY 270 billion, which accounts 75% of the total. In the third quarter and fourth quarter, we are going to have a half proportion so that the second half will have a fast development as well. In the second half of this year, in Greater Bay Area and Jing-Jin-Ji area, those core cities, the value will be more than 270%, which accounts 45% of the second half volume. We have got long-term projects for the second half. The dividend of the land bank will be launched, and that will pave a foundation for a greater development zone.

Also, I would like to report to you up to today, we have calculated that this month, our number is around CNY 25 billion, and with accumulation of more than CNY 200 billion. So we will have very good performance for the whole year. Shimao Services. In the first half, we can see that the revenue increased dramatically, with a YoY increase of 171%, reaching CNY 4.234 billion. Attributable profit to parent with a YoY of 136%, reaching CNY 578 billion. For contracted GSA, reaching CNY 239 million, and with the YoY of 91%. The accelerated development of Shimao Services is funded by the Shimao Group. For us, the project is stable and the ASP of third-party bidding projects improved, and the retention rate is nearly 100%. Customer satisfaction rate outperformed industry peers, and we continue to improve the bid win rate.

All those are good indicators for Shimao Services and also a good help for the whole group in development. Shimao Commercial. In the first half, Chengdu Shimao Festival City and Xiamen Jimei Shimao Festival City all opened. The occupation rate is both are more than 100%, with the opening rate one more than 95% and one more than 98%. Those landmark projects are launched. Next page, please. In terms of the hotel business in the first half, we have Hilton Changsha Riverside opened for providing better quality service to the customers and so that we can have diversified development trend. That is the end for my report. I would like to give the floor to Jason for the conclusion.

Jason Hui
Vice Chairman, Shimao Group

In the conclusion, I have several parts.

First of all, about the market review in the industry. In the first half, the country's sales of commodity properties reached a lot of highs, a record high of more than CNY 9.3 trillion. We think the second half year will drop a little bit. Last year second half also had a large base, so we predict that the sales for the year are expected to make history by surpassing CNY 18 trillion. In terms of land, we see that we have 22-city centralized land supply projects. We did not buy a lot of land in the first half.

They predict that maybe 60% will not make too much money, so we need to be very prudent in land acquisition. Because of the high price of the land, the government have issued a lot of regulations on controlling the land. There is a game change, and the game rule change in the land acquisition.

In this way, we want to be very prudent, and we also will enlarge the investment. The first half, till August, we have already invested CNY 70 billion- CNY 80 billion. At the financing side, as you know, the financing of real estate companies and mortgage facilities continue to be tightened. We have got great mortgage facilities and financing quotas. As you know that the houses are for inhabiting but not for speculation. These are the rules, and we are fully prepared to echo with the government's rules and regulations. Right now, we are shifting ourselves from attack to defense throughout the transition and refining sustainable operation capability. We shouldn't only focus on the growth rates, but we need to run this business sustainably in the long term. We have strengthened the headquarter to headquarter corporation, and in terms of cash collection, we have strengthened the assessment.

At the investment side, we have been more prudent and strict assessment, and we have equity partnerships. We have got a very good strategy, which is a giant aircraft, which is a highlight for the first half as well. These are the important indicators. Contracted sales increased by 38%, like Mr. Shao mentioned. This month, we are going to achieve more than CNY 200 billion contracted sales.

We also can see from July to August, we have seen the correction. It is also because of the epidemic. The gross profit margin is 28.6%, which is above the average level because there will be a decrease in the coming months, and we can keep it in a lower reduction. Our dividend per share is very high. It is nearly 9.45%. The 128% of revenue growth is a very big highlight of our results. In the correction in the industry, we also pay great attention to the robust development and to focus on the brand building and the product improvement. We also have the assessment criteria changes. Besides the contract sales and the collection of the cash, we also pay attention to the account receivable for the inventories, the optimization, and also down to the frontier development.

We also have the monthly assessment and the following up of the indicators so that we can strengthen the management cooperation and coordination with the local branches. We also pay attention to the optimization of our property and assets and have a stronger improvement on the collection and cash flow keeping. The non-property revenue is 6.6% with the hotel improvement 140% and the commercial 143%. For the whole year, we will have the goal realized, which is surpassing CNY 15 billion. For the non-property development, it will be nearly 10 percentage points, and in the future three years, we hope that the increase can be 20 percentage points. This can help us to defend ourselves on the cyclical decreasing. We also have a cluster of the listed companies. The Hong Kong 0873, that is for Shimao Services.

We also see the growth will be in the future three years fivefold. That is the goal. We hope that we can realize that goal. The service, it is improving its value-added services and the college campus logistic management. The city services, also the acquisition in this field, we can see further improvement. For the Shanghai Shimao, it is for the commercial and office buildings. It has got a lot of great projects. Three more TOD is added, and in the coming half year, we are looking at the future TOD projects. It is also looking at the third party and the asset-light development. For the commercial building and the sales services, as well as the hotel logistics, we will have further attention and resources put on it. I believe that this will bring more contributions.

As a summary, the robust development, disciplined acquisition, and the operation, and also for the high-quality development and the down-to-earth and refined management, the social responsibility, as mentioned by Madam Tang, the ESG and the charity, and also to pay attention to the welfare given to the marginal groups and vulnerable groups in the industry. So change life and bring better life is always the goal.

Operator

Thank you, Vice Chairman Jason Hui, and if you have any questions now, please use the telephone to raise your phone call question. We also can see many people queue on the chat box. Please keep your question number within two. Thank you. If you need to raise a question, please press the button for raising. Please press the star button, and then number one. The first question, that is from Eric. Eric from CICC.

Speaker 5

I am Eric from CICC. Chairman Hui, congratulations to the great performance in the last half year. I have two questions. First is for the market and policy. For the forecast, Shimao Group in the previous cycles have a very sensitive observation and swift adjustment according to the policy changes. What is your observation for the future for this round of policy making, and what is your countermeasures? For this question, I also hope to get Jason Hui's elaboration. Based on the environment for the policy making in the future several years, what is your strategy for the sales improvement in Shimao Group, and will there be any influence from the policy, for example, to the acceleration or the positioning and ranking in the market?

Second question is that to realize the goal of growth and looking at the current land supply environment and background, what is your policy of the land acquisition? I noticed that in the first half of this year, you are not very aggressive. But now with ample cash flow, will there be changes on the land acquisition, and will you be more aggressive? For the expected growth profit margin, compared with the current good policies, what is your observation? Thank you.

Jason Hui
Vice Chairman, Shimao Group

These are two very important questions. From the market and the policy perspective, we see that the regulation is more stringent and frequent. It is also related to the concentrated land supply. The executive level hope that, I believe that the country hope that the land price can be stabilized. But this expectation is not realized. We will see the pressure on the price increase will be continued.

But the generated direction is still the housing for living, not for speculation. But we see that the policy on assessment and the controls will be on the maybe second round of the land supply, and there will be the rules changing. Maybe the bidding based on the quality will be carried out just following the cases in Beijing. Generally speaking, the policy will be more stringent. It is also probable that there will be a losing in the end of this year. Because the industry is facing the pressure and the mortgage is also facing stringent control, we will need the in advance countermeasures. Like Madam Tang has mentioned, we will need to do something on the quota for the mortgage and the headquarter to headquarter corporation.

We hope that we can get more quota, and we also hope that we can get more support from the local banks. But I believe that healthy allocation and the cash collection are very important. It is also probable that the investment will be made when we face good opportunities. For the high growth, we have a land bank which is CNY 1.2 trillion. We also have renovation land. It is enough for the future three to four years development. We will not have a very tight goal for the land acquisition. In the first half this year, we participated in more land bidding. But in this year, the rate of collection is lower. In this year, the concentrated supply, among it, 60% is not making profit. They are losing money. It is not necessary for us.

For the land acquisition, will that have influence or the impact on the gross profit margin? In the second half this year, we also can see there might be some opportunities. In the first half this year, we have acquired like CNY 30 billion land for the strong tier 2 and tier 3 cities. But for the whole year, it is hard to predict because the second round of the land supply still has many unexpectancies. But we will keep our eyes on it, try to invest when there is good opportunities. For the gross profit margin, if it is not rational enough and we cannot get enough gross profit margin, we will be cautious. The prediction made by a lot of listed company is at about 20% or maybe 25%, but we will see in the future years, 3% to 4% of the decrease is foreseeable.

We may not likely to keep it grow, but we hope that we can get the high level as an industry benchmark. If the average is decreased by 3%- 4%, we can decrease within 2%. That is also good. We will keep the quality of our products. The non-property investment will be an opportunity. The gross profit is also rising. For the service and for the hotel, the gross profit, it is about 30%. For the commercial and entertainment, it is even higher. We believe that in this cycle, especially for the stringent policy making, this will be a possible result highlight. In the future three years, we hope that the increase will be about 20 percentage point.

Speaker 5

Okay.

Operator

Now last question. Next question. Next question is from Citigroup. Ken.

Speaker 6

Dear leaders and Jason, thank you for this opportunity of the question raising.

First, I want to ask about the land acquisition because a lot of our clients are paying great attention, and your future strategy for the land acquisition. You have a lot of channels for the land acquisition. For the M&A market, in the second half of this year, will that be influenced by the three red lines? What is your forecast for the future opportunities? In the public market, the projects with a price higher than the bottom line by 15% are not likely to be obtained.

For your acquisition, will you see the increasing of the land acquisition so that we can see a sustained growth of the return in the future? My second question is about the dividend per share. For the whole year, will that be a continued percent? For the whole year, will you keep 30%-35%? The share price is low. Will you see a repurchase at this price level?

Shao Liang
Group VP, Shimao Group

Yes. I noticed that many of you pay great attention to the land acquisition. In the first half of this year, we have participated in a lot of bidding. We have over 20 bidding in Hangzhou as a single city. But we did not get it. Before the 22-city centralized land supply, in June this year, I mean, in January this year, we obtained a very good opportunity in Hangzhou. So there will be good opportunities, but we need to be patient enough. In the first half of this year, we got 19 parcels of land, and over 10 is through the corporation M&A. Maybe because we got those land at the end of last year.

At that time, we thought it was expensive, but after the first round of bidding, we started to think, "Oh, it is not really that expensive." So we cooperated with some other people, other parties. I think in the second half, in M&A or in corporation, there are still opportunities. But of course, we have a large renewal project and large land bank. Next year, the first renewal project in Shenzhen will be in sales, will be starting to be sold in the market. So there are different channels for land acquisition. Right now, we are talking with those technology companies about some industry introduction. I think there is a diversified trend for the land acquisition channels. In July and August, we have already improved to CNY 10 billion on land acquisition. Some land biddings have been deferred and the rules have been changed.

First of all, you need to get the number first or the entry number first. Like in Wuxi, altogether 60 participants, but only one got the number. So the probability is not very large. But in Zhangjiagang, we did not get one number. You mentioned that this may improve our operational cost. So we need to calculate the profit. If the profit is lucrative, we will actively participate in the bidding. But if the profit is not good, then we need to focus on our gross profit margin for long-term consideration. But there are opportunities. You also mentioned about dividend and the dividend yield in the first half, that is around 35%. For the whole year, we hope to sustain our targets. For the whole year, I think the profits will definitely increase. If the profit increases, then the dividend will increase as well.

This is the way how we actually pay back or how we make our commitment to our shareholders. As you mentioned that the stock price right now is cheap, and we have already done some repurchase, and at this level, maybe there is still opportunity for further repurchase from the company.

Operator

Thank you. Next question, please. Next. From Mr. Chen Cong from CITIC.

Speaker 7

Jason. Good afternoon. Dear leaders, good afternoon. If in the second half the market is not good, the sales speed is not good, how would the company respond to that? With flexible pricing or leveraging more sales channels? The second question is that, from the company's perspective, in the long term, the gross profit margin bottom will be around 20% or will be even lower than 20%? These are my two questions. Thank you.

Shao Liang
Group VP, Shimao Group

To your first question, which is a very good question, whether we have had a long-term preparation for the downward trend in the market. Of course, we have our preparation. First of all, we are closely taking a look at our sales in July and August. For the whole industry in July and August, because of the regulation, there is a downward trend, and together with the pandemic issue spread. July and August is supposed to be the bottom for the whole industry development. From September to October, we have prepared a lot of projects to have a sprint. Just now, we mentioned about the mortgage. The demand is around CNY 100 billion, but we still have a gap. We are improving on those down payment optimization structure. In terms of price, we are going to dynamically adjust on the price.

The focus is not only on property sales, but we also have some big-scale asset with different types. We will prioritize dealing with some core asset. In the first half, we have traded around CNY 1 billion the core asset. We also have some long-term core assets treatment projects, which might be around five to six years. There are some institutions approaching us on those core assets, but we are asking for a high price. Maybe they need 5%-6%, but we will only provide 4%-5%. Just to echo with what Ken said, maybe the dividend will be even higher because the disposal will bring us high profit. Just now you mentioned about gross profit margin.

The first round of bidding, as we mentioned, 60% is now making much, so of course, the gross profit margin in the industry will have a downward trend. Also we see the raw material cost increase in the market. For the industry as a whole, I think the GPM would be averagely about 25%, and this year, the GPM will be even lower from 25%- 20% or 21%-22%, around four points decrease in the next two years. However, our GPM is higher than the industry average. If the industry decreased 4%, then I think we will strive to achieve 2% decline. Right now, our GPM is 28.6%, so we think in the next two years, we will sustain a high level.

Maybe this year, the decrease will be small, but definitely, we will be in line with the market trend. Well, because we have a good cost control and good land bank reserve, that will be supportive to our GPM control.

Operator

Thank you for the question. Next question please. Next from JP Morgan, Ray.

Speaker 8

Hi, Jason, and hi, leaders. I have two to three questions. First one, I want to ask you about the land acquisition. The market right now price is at a high level in price. If we take a look at other competitors, how they echo with this situation, they seek to renewal, especially in Pearl River Delta area. That helped defined our sellable resources. Secondly, in terms of the operational capabilities like commercials or other sector business, we need to further improve our capability in those sectors.

From those two angles, for Shimao Group in M&A or in land acquisition, maybe in the middle term, there is no good way for Shimao Group to reach a high level or high increase level. If we review back, will Shimao Group, starting from now, to build a medium-sized property developments or TODs, and also in renewal, whether we are going to have a deeper development in city renewal so that we will have more opportunities in the coming future. Then that we can look out our own way of faster growth with comparatively good GPM, so that we do not need to follow on the industry's downward trend. The second question is that in commercial sector, what is our strategy? Because in commercial, Shimao Group, we have our strong commercial sector. As Jason mentioned, two to three years ago, we have acquired a good quality land for commercial properties.

But with maybe in the industry, some competitors do not have a very quick turnover. The turnover would be, in the industry, around two to three years. Maybe they have 10 to 15 shopping malls in one year's time. I want to know, what is Shimao Group's strategy in commercial sector? Another question is that in the industry, as we know that some players, they have some spinning off and separate listing with a high P/E ratio, so the price is not good. We know that we have a spin-off plan for a hotel separate listing. Right now, I want to know, what is the progress and how the spin-off is going to happen. Apart from the repurchase from the company, I also want to know that whether the largest shareholders will have a privatization idea.

Jason Hui
Vice Chairman, Shimao Group

Well, altogether you have four questions. Okay. Land acquisition, I agree with you that the land price right now is at a very high level. Well, if through bidding in the second round, if the selling is there, but the profit will not be high. Right now, in land acquisition, I think there are diversified channels. In the first half, we have got 19 parcels. More than 10 of them are in cooperation with those small and medium-sized developers. You also mentioned about those Greater Bay Area renewal projects with sellable resources of more than CNY 200 billion, and those projects will be in the market next year. You also mentioned about the TOD projects. We have more TOD projects. This year, we have three TOD projects already in Hangzhou, Ningbo, are of good location and good quality.

As you mentioned that Shimao Group, we have a lot of big-size complex. Not as many as you think. Mainly in Zhuhai, Shenzhen, and Nanjing, three big complex. Every year, the three of them contribute to the total sales. However, the turnover would be around five to six years to digest, which is different with the TOD project, with a short turnover. Sometimes the term is only two to three years, so that the turnover can cover the land acquisition cost. Right now, we have altogether 10 TOD projects, among which two to three are those big size or big scale TOD projects. I think we will have a high investment in TOD projects in the future. As I mentioned, together with some high-tech companies, we are discussing now introducing high-tech companies so that we can acquire the land at a reasonable price.

Just now you mentioned about those big scale or high level, complex or buildings. The numbers of the projects are not too many, but the investment is huge. We are speeding up on the sales first. Right now in Nanjing, all the residential properties has been sold out. Right now we only have some apartments. Every year we can have a contribution of CNY 5 billion, and performance is also good in Zhuhai. Hotel business spin-off, as you mentioned, is difficult. In commercial sector, there is some kind of spin-off with a very good return. The hotel return is comparatively low, but right now we are taking another path, which is using an asset-light way for the separate listing. Right now we have managed on behalf of the agencies for more than 100 projects. Right now we are discussing with some institutions on first-year location hotel and commercials.

But as you know that our asking price is always very high. Maybe if we make some compromise, then in dividend yields, we can improve as well. Just now you mentioned about how to maintain the value. There are several aspects. First of all, we need to give good performance to show the market so that they will have absolute confidence. Well, of course, if the stock price decrease dramatically then we will consider repurchase. Thirdly, in asset optimization, we hope that we can go further in this sector so that we can improve repurchase or improve the dividend so that our investors will be happy and they will find the great value in Shimao Group, and they will notice that we have some core high-quality projects. This is our up to now plan.

Operator

Thank you, Ray, for the questions from JP Morgan. Thank you for your so many questions. Now we invite the next question raiser. Our next question raiser is Chloe from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 9

Thank you, leaders. My name is Chloe. I am from Morgan Stanley. I have two questions. First is for the altogether getting better off. Will that have an influence on the profitability of Shimao, and will there influence the strategy for the future development? Another is for the off-balance sheet, and the central government having the requirement on the off-balance sheet and the debt, and also for the trust and other channels and also M&A for a long time. This will be a policy for a long-term cycle. It is now still under discussion. I do not think the impact will come very soon.

For the real estate, the long-term goal for the government is to stabilize the house price, the land price, and the expectation on the price. This will not be changed. It is the same for the housing for living, not for the speculation. For the property management, will there be influence on the ASC?

Jason Hui
Vice Chairman, Shimao Group

Well, not necessarily. The property management also can have value-added services to improve the quality of the service, and this also is an opportunity for the rise of the ASP. We strictly follow the government policy. For the real estate, I don't think there will be a very sudden and immediate impact. The government regulation is a new normal for the real estate. We need to get used to that, and we also need to adapt ourselves to it to improve our business. Madam Tang, could you answer the second question?

Tang Fei
Executive Director, Shimao Group

For the off-balance, for the separate balance sheet cooperation, like the joint projects and also the cooperation with other companies like the financial cities and the Asian Games Town in Guangzhou and also the projects in Beijing. These are the big projects, so we don't have that off balance. It is also all of them is in the structure of the listed company. We have stopped this commercial off balance debt that is at about CNY 4 billion-CNY 5 billion. For the trust, it is limited within the projects like the complex of a big scale. In the sales and operations, as mentioned by Jason, we will have a regularized monitoring and regularly put them into the balance sheet. Generally speaking, I believe that our financial structure is rational and healthy.

Operator

Thank you very much. Next question. Next question is Raymond from the Galaxy. Can you hear us? Okay. Okay. Jason?

Speaker 10

Yes. I will raise a question for a lot of investors. In the future two or three years, what is your prediction of the profit? You mentioned there will be double-digit growth, so for the guidelines, will that be capped with a background like this? The domestic market is quite challenging in mainland. In Hong Kong, there is a big project. Can you update the progress of this project, the price, and the interest rate for that project?

Jason Hui
Vice Chairman, Shimao Group

For the profitability guideline and the prediction last year, we hope that it can be as high as 10% every year. In the first half of this year, we have realized this goal. For the whole year, if we can obtain the sales goal, currently we have got CNY 200 billion. For the whole year, we believe that we can achieve that goal. Yes, it is the possibility that the gross profit margin will be reduced, but we will have other opportunities to see whether or not we can stabilize our expectation on the profitability.

In July this year, we have increased CNY 10 billion investment. We are also looking at the good opportunities in the fourth quarter of this year. We will be rational in the participation in investment. For this, we do not have changes on our expectation. You mentioned our project in Hong Kong. We have three projects. One is a hotel which is in operation. Another is a commercial product that is CNY 30 billion. For the whole year, the sales will be CNY 10 billion. Another is in Kowloon, and the total is CNY 25 billion.

Maybe in the end of this year or no later than the first quarter of next year, we will start the sales. The land value is low, so we are looking at the price in the market. We are optimistic because the price in Hong Kong is stable and rising a little bit. So we have high expectation on that project. Maybe in the end of this year and in the first half of next year, when it opened, we will see this will be a great contribution to our unit price because it has a very good apartment complex. It also has a low density part which is more profitable.

Operator

Okay. We can have opportunities for two questions. Every investor, please raise one question so that we can have two investors. Next, please. Our next question is from Eric.

Speaker 11

Good afternoon. I am from Bank of America. As mentioned by Jason, it is probable that the policy will be loosened in the end of this year. But now the fourth quarter is approaching and the strategy in the market is going to defend. Will that be quite conservative? My second question is that for the sales in the market for the next year, the investors may have concerns on that, and it is a not quite clear prediction. Will that be the reason of the conservative policy making? Is that probable that there will be aggressive changes? Will you do that when getting some hint?

Jason Hui
Vice Chairman, Shimao Group

This question is about the strategy changing. A good question. Thank you. It is related to the policy making from the central government. The reason why I said that we will change our key tone to defend, it is because that when the sales is right, when the sales is good, there is policy changes on the land supply, on the market, and also the price regularization. Previously, it was not that stringent. Now we can see the controls on the price and on the certificate issuing. Now we need to wait, maybe there is four months ahead. So we will see whether or not there will be a less stringent policy control. I do not think it will be very loose, because it is still in the trend that it is getting more and more stringent.

When we see the signals of policy getting less stringent, like more quota given to the market and also the land supply, we see a rational trend in the market, we will be more aggressive. I should say that we will need to be active, but rational. You also mentioned the pressure of the sales in the next year. If we see it is CNY 18 trillion, it will be the highest point in the market. Whether or not there will be a correction in the next year, I am not sure. The first half of this year, we will see the progress is very aggressive. Probably there will be a correction and a slowdown. Next year will be more than CNY 17 trillion, and it is also very high. Probably CNY 18 trillion, I'm not sure.

When it is too high, there will be policy corrections as well. We don't like to see the fluctuation in the policy making. We hope that the market can be rational and more stable, and we will keep our pace rational and stable as well.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our last question, Raisa, from Haitong International Securities.

Speaker 12

Thank you leaders. I have two questions. First is that you have less acquisition by now for the land. For the equity ratio, what is the current situation? Because currently it is decreased if you look at other developers. My first question is for your equity ratio. The second is, if the land acquisition is lower, will that have influence on the sell-through rate for the next year? Because what we sell is the inventory. Will the sell-through rate lower further? What's the first half year's sell-through rate?

Jason Hui
Vice Chairman, Shimao Group

For the first half this year, we have acquired over CNY 20 billion, and when we look at the sales, it is lower than 15%. The government requirement is 40%. For companies at scale like ours, we are expected to have CNY 50 billion, but we only at a half of that, but that is because of the high price. We have another CNY 10 billion this year, and the total is about CNY 30 billion . The equity ratio is about 60%. It is kept stable. We also have some others, 100%, and cooperated with other companies, the daughter companies, the TOD. The sell-through rate for the first half this year is about 64%. If for the second half this year, we will need to complete 49%.

For the next year's sell-through, we will keep it in the long term, over 60%, and look at the next year's planning. If we can realize above 60% or maybe 64%, 65%, our next year's sell-through rate will be very good because we have good quality resources and also for the land bank.

Operator

Thank you very much and also thank you our executive level. If you have following up questions, please feel free to further follow up with our IR team. Thank you very much.