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Earnings Call: H2 2023

Mar 26, 2024

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Nexteer Automotive Group Limited 2023 Annual Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal the conference specialist by pressing the star followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Investor Relations Director, Mr. Tony Wang. Please go ahead, sir.

Tony Wang
Director of Investor Relations, Nexteer Automotive

Thank you, Rocco. Again, welcome everyone to our earnings call for the full year 2023. We made the announcement of our annual results this evening, Hong Kong time. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that this presentation contains a safe harbor statement. For additional information, please refer to the content in the second page. The presentation accompanying today's call is available on our company's website. Please visit nexteer.com to download slides if you have not done yet. Joining us today are Robin Milavec, Executive Board Director, President, CTO, and Chief Strategy Officer. Then Mike Bierlein, Senior Vice President and CFO; Hervé Boyer, Senior Vice President and COO. Starting the presentation, Robin and Mike will provide business and financial highlights respectively. Then we will open the line for your questions. Please follow the limit of two questions per person.

With that, let me turn the call over to our President, Robin.

Robin Milavec
President, CTO and Chief Strategy Officer, Nexteer Automotive

Okay. Thank you, Tony. Good evening to everyone online. Thank you for joining the call for the Nexteer 2023 Annual Results announcement. To begin, I'll provide a brief business overview for the year. Then I'll hand it over to Mike, and he'll go through the financial assessment as well as some observations for 2024. On slide 4, we continue to adhere to our six-point strategy for profitable growth. With that, let's review our business highlights from 2023, which include examples of the six points shown here. I'd like to start with a high-level overview of our full year business highlights, spanning across five significant milestones that demonstrate Nexteer's focus on delivering long-term profitable growth. First, $4.2 billion in total revenue for the year. We crossed over the $4 billion threshold for the first time in our company's history, increasing revenue by 9.6% compared to 2022.

This is a result of continued above-market revenue growth driven by new and conquest bookings over the past few years. Second, we achieved 55 program launches, successfully launching 55 new customer programs across all regions and achieving a new company record for program launches in a single year. 34 of those launches are linked to electric vehicle programs, and 39 are tied to our business in Asia-Pacific. Third, $6.1 billion in new business bookings. We achieved customer program bookings totaling $6.1 billion, including our first standalone software booking, our second Steer-by-Wire production award, and the first EPS win with a global EV leader headquartered in the U.S. We've had continuous business expansion among Chinese new energy vehicle OEMs, and in addition, we maintained the $6+ billion new booking wins for the third consecutive year. Fourth, we achieved $1.2 billion in revenue from our APAC division.

This is a historical level of revenue for our APAC division, and it grew more than 25% compared to 2022 with strong profitability and strong free cash flow. Our AP segment strengthened its leadership position in China's electric power steering market among Chinese domestic OEMs, both shared by the EV transition. At the same time, India also achieved steady growth in this market. Lastly, we produced a milestone 100 million EPS units. So in 2023, we achieved this global production milestone of 100 million electric power steering systems. This further reinforces our EPS technology and global market leadership position.

On the next slide, as I mentioned in the prior slide, we had a very successful year of product launches in 2023 with a record of 55 new programs launched across multiple product lines, multiple regions, and customers, including one column program launch, which is our first business launch with a global EV headquartered in the US. We expect to see more program launches in the next few years with this particular customer. Out of the 55 launched programs, 34 programs were represented by electric vehicle launches, including both HEV and BEV models that were supported by our products in 2023. From a regional perspective, 39 out of the 55 new programs were from APAC, thanks to a strong product pipeline from Chinese domestic OEMs. We also see successful program launches in other regions with 13 in North America and three in EMEASA.

On the right side of this slide, you see a sampling of several major programs that were launched in the second half of the year. Over half of the new models were Chinese domestic OEMs, spanning from incumbent customers to new and leading BEV players. As we mentioned previously, our industry-leading product, Rack-Based EPS, was a significant part of launches in the second half of the year. Notably, we started to supply this advanced steering system to Xpeng, Chery, and Polestar for the first time. Moving into 2024, we're excited to see additional and significant rollouts of Rack EPS products with Chinese and mainstream OEMs. In terms of launches in North America and EMEASA, we also see additional quality program launches that strengthen our market position within these regions.

The strong launch pipeline will continue to materialize throughout the course of this year, bolstered by new rack EPS programs in China. In addition to near-term revenue growth fueled by new program launches, our new business awards in 2023 achieved the $6.1 billion level for the third consecutive year. I'd like to highlight four key accomplishments in terms of new bookings secured last year. We won our first gear-based single-pinion EPS business with a global EV leader that's headquartered in the U.S. This now achieves our full product portfolio representation of steering, columns, and driveline at this customer. Our first EPS win is part of a next-gen platform and will lead to potential new business opportunities with this customer outside of the North America segment. Next is our second Steer-by-Wire production program with a leading global OEM.

This award includes both Road Wheel Actuator and Hand Wheel Actuator, along with software integration, and it provides a full system solution for this OEM. The increasing OEM interest in Steer-by-Wire, combined with our technology leadership, is a good indicator of additional Steer-by-Wire business booking opportunities yet to materialize in 2024. You can see on the third bullet our first standalone software business win with a leading global OEM. With this project, Nexteer we'll develop standardized software plus steering and driver assist features that will be applied across multiple vehicle platforms. This growth milestone capitalizes on a Software-Defined Vehicle trend by leveraging our software capabilities. Lastly, we continue to see strong bookings from China in EV OEMs, which is an important segment driving our growth over market. The right-hand side of this chart shows the full year bookings composition.

Our electric power steering product line accounted for 81%, followed by driveline at 11%. By geographical region, North America continued to play an important role driven by foundational customers plus the new business from the leading BEV player. Meanwhile, APAC had multiple business expansions with local customers. 41% of our total bookings are conquest wins, including the notable second award of a Steer-by-Wire system, our first EPS win with the global EV leader, as well as APAC breakthroughs with local OEMs. And finally, China domestic OEMs contributed 20% of our global bookings compared to the 30% bookings contribution of APAC as a whole. A favorable booking mix with Chinese OEMs is a good indicator that we are well-positioned and fully aligned with the market shift towards China OEMs. Beyond the largest progress of new booking wins, I want to share what's happened in terms of customer diversity.

We've talked in previous calls about the importance of expanding our portfolio of valued customer relationships. The company has built a rich customer portfolio by making significant customer breakthroughs in the past few years. As you can see on this page, we talked through our customer diversification within three groupings. First, global OEMs are our foundational customers given their business scale and global footprint. We're expanding our market share with several global OEMs such as Volkswagen and looking for profitable growth throughout the next decade. The second group I'd like to highlight is major local OEMs, including both China and India-based customers. As Chinese OEMs expand domestically and globally, driven in part by the electrification megatrend, we expect Chinese OEMs to continue strong market share growth throughout this decade. We seek to strategically position Nexteer to support these growing OEMs such as BYD, Changan, Chery, Geely, GAC, and others.

Another group of customers are non-traditional OEMs with varied business models. These new business wins include the first Single-Pinion EPS win with a North America-based battery electric vehicle OEM, Rack EPS breakthrough with Li Auto, XPeng, and a China tech company, plus a collaboration with self-driving car company in terms of last mile and automated people movers. We currently have low revenue exposure with these customers but are confident in the growth potential within our diversified customer portfolio. Nexteer's balanced diverse customer base not only accelerates our business scale expansion but also supports diversification within our comprehensive product portfolio, both of which are critical for market leadership in innovative motion control technologies. Speaking of the role of Chinese OEMs within our diversified customer base, this slide shows our extensive year-over-year growth within this segment.

We see the expected growth of Chinese OEMs as an opportunity to grow our revenue and outpace market performance. Even still, it's important to remember that APAC is also very dynamic, very competitive, and a crowded market as local OEMs typically use dual-sourcing strategies. However, healthy profitability can be maintained through flexible modular design architectures, lean production systems, and cost controls through managing our bill of materials, designs, and processes. I'd like to spotlight our AP division's strengthened leadership position in China EPS market among Chinese domestic OEMs through their NEV customer strategy as well as noting the division's driveline business is also achieving a historic level of revenue. In terms of product portfolio within APAC, we successfully broke through with rack EPS business wins at several leading domestic OEMs.

We also identified new opportunities in Dual-Pinion EPS as well as Steer-by-Wire, which serve as additional proof points of enhancing engineering capabilities within our APAC division. Ongoing enhancements to in-region engineering capabilities will ultimately drive innovation and responsiveness for current and future customers within the region. A few examples of this application include our Modular Rack EPS product, our high-output Column EPS product, and modular Dual-Pinion Electric Power Steering. Steer-by-Wire technology capabilities are also being developed locally to capture future growth opportunities and support new customers. The upper right chart shows a favorable revenue growth progress over the past four years. Comparing to 2020, APAC in 2023 revenue increased by 90% cumulatively to a record $1.2 billion despite the unfavorable exchange impact. Moving to the lower right of the slide, the chart gives a snapshot of the current regional customer portfolio balance in 2023.

Local OEMs contributed to about half of our revenue in APAC compared to 40% three years ago, which is a favorable trend for us. Building on overall customer diversification and APAC growth, I'd like to highlight a strategic footprint expansion to further capitalize on APAC growth opportunities. In November of last year, Nexteer announced that we will be increasing manufacturing and testing capacity by expanding our footprint to Changshu near our existing facilities in Suzhou. We held a groundbreaking ceremony earlier this year and are expected to open this new facility in early 2025. Customer programs are already booked, as well as potential new bookings will fill this over 90,000 square meter plant.

To meet growing demand from both global and domestic customers in APAC, Changshu new plant will offer a comprehensive product portfolio which includes gear-based electric power steering such as single-pinion, dual-pinion, and rack EPS, as well as Steer-by-Wire. In addition to production expansion, the Changshu site will supplement Nexteer's APAC Technical Center testing and validation capacity and will feature a state-of-the-art testing and validation lab as well as an on-site test track. Our expanded footprint in Changshu is a critical piece in our overall strategy for profitable growth that thinks globally yet acts local. The expansion of Nexteer 's production capacity and testing capabilities in China is critical to our continued success and will influence technology adoption within China and beyond.

Along with manufacturing footprint expansion, we continue to rebalance our global engineering resources to reflect the overall needs of our global customer base and optimize it for cost and efficiencies. In 2023, we renamed our technical centers according to their locations: in the U.S., in Mexico, in EMEASA, India, and APAC. This reflects our strategy to optimize research and development in the context of thinking global yet acting local. The divisional technical centers, the USTC, MXTC, EUTC, and APTC, will focus on the business needs of their division with a goal to enhance agility, speed, customer and market responsiveness, as well as R&D and innovation. Meanwhile, in India, the INTC will continue to provide global support from a perspective of software production, virtual engineering, cybersecurity, as well as R&D.

Among these five technical centers, I'm glad to introduce our newest one, which is our technical center in Mexico, as we held a groundbreaking ceremony earlier this month in Querétaro. This facility will expand our local engineering capabilities to improve responsiveness, efficiency, and quality for OEM customers in Mexico. We also recently initiated the upgrade of our engineering facility in EMEASA in Tychy to strengthen its technological capabilities and infrastructure for this important European market. On the topic of technologies, we have updated this chart showing how Nexteer 's technologies align with industry megatrends, including our leadership in electrification, software, and the ADAS advanced driving landscape. As you're probably aware on the driver assist and automation front, industry momentum focuses on driver-assisted technologies and software-enabled features and functions that enhance safety, enhance performance, and convenience.

Meanwhile, the industry continues to explore specific and targeted applications for fully autonomous level five vehicles such as last-mile delivery and people movers. Consequently, we continue to focus and align our product strategy to meet the OEM's priorities and offer solutions across all levels of driver assist to full automation as well as software-defined vehicles and EVs. At Nexteer , leadership means not only to be the leader in technology but also a leader in cost competitiveness. Our broad product portfolio focuses on competitiveness, and it gives a wide array of options to OEMs who are challenged with the costly EV transition while also delivering affordable vehicles that delight the end consumer. A couple of examples on this front include our modular options for electric power steering that leverage cost-effective platform designs that also meet the OEM's wide-ranging requirements.

In terms of Steer-by-Wire, we are also dedicated to value-driven solutions that open a gateway to new safety and performance features enabled by Steer-by-Wire. The bottom line is that Nexteer, we work hard to anticipate the OEM's challenges across this rapidly evolving industry megatrend and relentlessly innovate to create inspired, value-driven solutions. Also at Nexteer, sustainability is a key part in achieving our vision. In 2023, we continue to engage with internal and external stakeholders to enact sustainability initiatives around the world, from renewable energy to employee events to supplier conferences and community engagement, as we share concrete evidence of our sustainability culture. Our One Nexteer global team efforts have earned us various awards such as recognition as a constituent member of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Corporate Sustainability Benchmark Index for the seventh consecutive year.

In addition, recognition by Newsweek's list of America's most responsible companies in 2024 for the fourth time in five years. Our people are our future, and Nexteer, we value our employees as one of the most important assets. We are humble yet proud of our emphasis on people that has led to various recognitions such as a great place to work certification, and a few other workplace-related awards across multiple regions. As noted on our relentless innovation and technology leadership, we are well-positioned with the industry megatrends such as electrification. As an example, our bookings support EV-related platforms and the tremendous growth in the China market. We shall continue to monitor evolving megatrends as the automotive industry transitions to a low-carbon economy in the decades to come. In summary, our teams remain focused and committed to embracing sustainability in our strategy for profitable growth.

With that, let me hand it over to Mike for the financial review.

Mike Bierlein
SVP and CFO, Nexteer Automotive

Thanks, Robin, and good day to everyone. It is a pleasure to have the opportunity to review our 2023 financial results as well as to discuss key operating considerations for 2024. Nexteer achieved a record $4.2 billion of revenue in 2023. Full year revenue adjusted for foreign exchange and commodity price changes increased by 11.1%. We grew above the market by 170 basis points, driven by new and conquest program launches over the past several years. APAC is leading the way with adjusted revenue year-over-year growth of 32%, driven by growth with China OEMs. EBITDA margin continued to be impacted by macroeconomic headwinds, and we incurred several one-time items that impacted our results: unfavorable foreign exchange impact with the Mexican peso strengthening and the RMB weakening against the US dollar.

Inflation rates during 2023 did reduce; however, inflation remains above historic levels and continues to impact our input costs, including labor, energy, and material costs. The UAW strike impacting our North America segment reduced revenue by $59 million and EBITDA by $15 million. We experienced a supplier disruption in the second half of 2023, impacting EBITDA by $49 million. The $49 million impact includes premium freight, labor costs, and other costs to restore production. In addition, the impact includes customer costs due to the disruption. This issue was the result of a supplier being unable to meet customer production requirements and causing customer downtime. We have fully resourced this supplier by the end of 2023 and expect no impact from this issue in 2024. In addition, we incurred $10 million of restructuring costs in North America in order to reduce costs and improve profit margin moving forward.

Free cash flow was positive $105 million as we continue to build on our strong balance sheet. This slide highlights our key financial metrics: revenue, EBITDA, net profit, and free cash flow. Nexteer posted revenue of $4.2 billion. This is a record for revenue with an increase of $367 million or 9.6% compared with last year, driven by strong customer production schedules in APAC and EMEASA. EBITDA of $347 million in 2023 was slightly lower compared with last year. This includes $75 million of one-time items related to the supplier disruption, the UAW strike, and restructuring expense. Adjusting for one-time items, our EBITDA would be $422 million or 9.9%, improving compared to last year by $57 million and expanding margin by 40 basis points. Net profit of $37 million in 2023 was lower by $21 million compared to last year, which is in line with the EBITDA decrease.

Free cash flow for 2023 rose to $105 million, which is a $75 million increase compared with 2022. Net cash provided from operations was the primary driver, with improvements in working capital and a $38 million U.S. tax refund related to research and development deductions. Slide 17 shows a walk of 2022 revenue to 2023 revenue. Unfavorable foreign currency exchange reduced revenue by $41 million as the RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar, while the euro strengthened to partially offset the impact. As noted here, the largest driver of the year-over-year increase in revenue was represented by volume, pricing, and others, which provided an uplift of $483 million driven by strong customer schedules and new and conquest program launches, mainly in APAC and EMEASA. Meanwhile, North America customer production stoppage caused by the UAW strike had a $59 million negative impact on revenue.

Finally, commodity prices reduced, causing a year-over-year revenue decrease of $16 million. This slide shows our year-over-year revenue growth over market adjusted for foreign exchange and commodity price changes. Our total adjusted revenue growth in 2023 was 11.1%. We outperformed the market by 1.7%. North America adjusted revenue increased by 1% with below-market growth of 8%, resulting from customer mix as well as the UAW strike impact. EMEASA increased by 15%, above market by 4%. Asia Pacific increased by 32%, above market by 23%, driven by significant new and conquest program launches, especially with China OEMs. This slide shows our regional revenue performance. On the left of the slide, the regional distribution of our revenue for 2023 and 2022 is presented. For both years, North America is the largest and comprises 54% of our total revenue in 2023, followed by Asia Pacific and EMEASA of 29% and 17%, respectively.

Compared to 2022, we have a more balanced regional revenue mix as Asia Pacific represents a larger share of the total, reflecting continuous growth over market in the past few years. As noted on the right of the slide, all of our segments experienced higher revenue on a year-over-year basis given the year-over-year increase in OEM production schedules as well as the benefit from new and conquest customer program launches. For 2023, North America posted revenue of $2.259 billion, $12 million or 0.5% higher than last year. Asia Pacific posted record revenue of $1.215 billion, $250 million or 25.9% higher than last year, and EMEASA posted revenue of $726 million, $107 million or 17.2% higher than last year. As noted on the left of this slide, our 2023 product line revenue profile remained fairly stable when compared with last year.

EPS continued to drive revenue growth, increasing $243 million to $2.861 billion in 2023, 9.3% higher than last year, and comprised 68% of our total revenue for the year. Our leadership position with China OEMs is the key driver of this growth. CIS posted revenue of $379 million in 2023, 2.6% higher than last year. HPS revenue largely remained stable at $168 million in 2023 compared to last year. Driveline revenue increased year-over-year to $799 million, 16.5% higher than last year. The revenue increase includes further production ramp-up in Morocco and APAC growth with both local and global customers. This slide shows our EBITDA walk year-over-year. EBITDA was $347 million in 2023, reducing $18 million compared to 2022. Volume and mix added $92 million of EBITDA. Unfavorable foreign exchange caused a $45 million negative impact driven by the Mexican peso strengthening and the RMB weakening against the U.S. dollar.

The supplier issue that caused production downtime for our customer impacted EBITDA by $49 million. The UAW strike impacted EBITDA by $15 million due to reduced volume. We also incurred $10 million of restructuring costs as the company implemented a series of fixed cost reduction initiatives, including a voluntary early retirement program in the U.S. and costs associated with our columns transition from the U.S. to Mexico. All other net performance totaled $9 million with material and manufacturing performance, slightly improving compared to customer pricing and economics. This slide highlights the EBITDA and margin profile for each of our regions. North America EBITDA performance deteriorated both in absolute dollars as well as reduced margin, with EBITDA lower $42 million or 24% to $131 million compared with the same period in 2022.

The reduction in EBITDA is driven by the supplier disruption, the UAW strike, and restructuring costs, which totaled a $75 million impact in region. Asia Pacific posted EBITDA of $201 million, $35 million or 21% higher than 2022, driven by year-over-year revenue growth. EBITDA margins remained strong at 16.6%. Our Asia Pacific team delivered strong earnings results in 2023 with excellent operating execution. EMEASA reported EBITDA of $40 million, which was $4 million lower than 2022. Ongoing cost pressures, including impacts from inflation and unfavorable foreign exchange, continued to compress EMEASA's operating profit. We implemented fixed cost reductions and footprint initiatives that will improve our profit margins and our operational efficiency. We reduced fixed costs by completing a U.S. early retirement incentive program during the second half of 2023. We continue to expand our global engineering capabilities.

We renamed our technical centers and rebalanced engineering resources to better serve customer needs and to capture engineering efficiencies. Our regional tech center approach reflects our strategy to optimize research and development in the context of thinking global yet acting local. We are optimizing our manufacturing footprint to capture efficiencies. We completed the footprint consolidation at our U.S. driveline operations, reducing from two plants to one. We began relocating production of our steering columns business from the U.S. to our Mexico site in Juarez. While the benefits of this transition will occur over several years, we expect this transition to help us enhance profit margins via larger scale plus more competitive production and supply chain costs. And lastly is supply chain management. We have implemented improved risk management processes to strengthen our supply chain resiliency, and we are focused on enhancing competitiveness by targeting disruptive suppliers to reduce material costs.

This slide shows our walk from EBITDA to net profit. Overall, the year-over-year $18 million EBITDA reduction is driving the $21 million net profit reduction. I will highlight three points. Depreciation and amortization of $285 million includes plant property and equipment depreciation as well as amortization of our intangible assets. Overall, D&A increased by $6 million. However, with the revenue increase, the thinning of D&A expense expanded profit margins by approximately 45 basis points. The net finance benefit in 2022 included a gain related to the income tax refund we received in 2023. Income tax expense in 2023 includes a one-time $11 million gain due to the recognition of deferred tax assets as Brazil operating profit has improved. Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow. On the left of the slide is our cash flow performance.

Cash from operating activities of $404 million in the current period rose by $110 million compared with a year ago, principally a result of net favorable working capital and the $38 million income tax refund during the year of 2023. Cash used in investing activities of $299 million was higher than last year due to timing of capital spending payments. We generated significant free cash flow of $105 million in 2023, which was $75 million higher than the last year. Our debt level is low, with only $49 million of debt and $51 million of finance leases. Our balance sheet remains strong with $312 million of cash balance and available credit facilities of $370 million, totaling $682 million of liquidity for the year-end of 2023. Turning to 2024 operating considerations.

As we continue to see the benefits of strong new and conquest program launches, we expect another record level for revenue and continued margin expansion. We are currently forecasting that global OEM volumes will be roughly flat year-over-year. We continue to drive above-market revenue growth, especially focused in Asia-Pacific as we continue to grow with the China OEMs. I am excited for our new Changshu plant based in China that will enable further growth in APAC starting from 2025 and beyond. The additional revenue growth in 2024 will contribute to margin expansion along with the fixed cost reduction and footprint initiatives that have been implemented in 2023. Lastly, in terms of new bookings, we target to achieve another strong year of bookings at $6 billion, which will continue to provide for above-market revenue growth.

As we consider the challenges and growth opportunities ahead, I am confident that Nexteer is well positioned to successfully execute and deliver on our strategy for profitable growth, thanks to the dedication, relentless innovation, and global collaboration of our One Nexteer team. Thank you for your time and participation today. I would now like to open the call up for your questions. Operator Rocco, please begin the questions.

Operator

Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Once again, we do ask that you limit yourselves to two questions per person. Today's first question comes from Tim Hsiao with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Tim Hsiao
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thanks, management, for taking my questions. I have two questions. The first question is about product mix change. We noticed the rising mix of Rack-Based EPS in upcoming program launches. Could you please probably quantify the contribution from the program mix shift to value content on a year-to-year basis? For example, how much of the average content value per car could grow in 2024 versus 2023? So this is the first question. And the second question is about the annual price costs. We had 34 EV programs launch in 2023, and the model pipeline, according to the management, I think in China, EV OEMs will stay pretty strong this year. However, inside of very fierce pricing competitions in China these days, how should we think about the price erosion this year on an apples-to-apples comparison basis?

Will there be any extra discounts or rebates introduced on top of regular annual price costs? And how will Nexteer handle that kind of pricing pressure? So that's my second question. Thank you.

Mike Bierlein
SVP and CFO, Nexteer Automotive

Thanks, Tim. It's Mike when we take a shot at these two. And Robin, if you have further comments, certainly feel free to join in as well. So on the first one, as we think about Asia Pacific, Robin noted that we have launched several new Rack EPS programs in Asia Pacific. And as these programs continue, we continue to roll out future launches with our China Rack E PS business. I would expect to maintain the current profit margins that we're seeing in Asia Pacific.

As I noted, we had 16.6% EBITDA in Asia-Pacific, and we intend to maintain approximately around that level of margins moving forward, including as well with a new launching of the rack PS business. On the second question, certainly that is a dynamic question relative to pricing. Overall, in the China market, in terms of certainly on the OEM side but also on the steering side, many of the programs that we have with our China OEM customers, we are dual and sometimes triple source with other steering suppliers, providing for a competitive pricing market. Now, that's nothing new to us at Nexteer. We're certainly used to receiving pressures on the pricing front from our customers across the board. And our strategy is to, as we offer price reductions to our customers, we look for offsetting reductions in terms of material costs, design changes, and other operational efficiencies.

We are certainly facing pricing pressures, but I'd say nothing that is out of the ordinary from what we typically are used to experiencing in the market. I guess I can add to that. Hi, Tim. This is Robin. Another part of our strategy in the China market has been to implement what we call modular designs. The modular design is a portfolio, in this case, of rack EPS products that drive a lot of scale and commonality between the applications or the customers that we're serving. Because the design is modular, because there's a lot of commonality, not only with the product itself but the processes that are used to manufacture the product are very flexible. It's easy for us to shift volume from one model to the other very seamlessly without a lot of cost.

But this modular design is providing us with a lot of scale, and that scale provides us leverage with our supply chain that we are using because, as you mentioned, we know the China market is very dynamic. There will continue to be cost pressures that we will have to step up to. And this modular design strategy is enabling us to be efficient with how we design and manufacture our product and develop scale across our supply chain.

Tim Hsiao
VP and Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Thank you very much, Robin, and Mike.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Rebecca Wen with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Rebecca Wen
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Hi. Hi. Good morning, Mike and Robin. Thank you for taking my question. So my first question is on the steer-by-wire penetration rate.

I think in the first half 2023 results, you had given some color and guidance on potentially achieving a 5% steer-by-wire penetration in 2030. Have you had any new thoughts to that projection now with the latest developments in the industry? So that's the first question. And the second question is on you guided that in 2024, we are expecting a margin expansion. And given that we had done the restructuring, we have reduced the fixed cost. Can you just give us a bit of quantifiable numbers like how much margin expansion we can expect from that reduced fixed cost or the restructuring program that we've taken? That's my two questions. Thank you.

Robin Milavec
President, CTO and Chief Strategy Officer, Nexteer Automotive

Hi, Rebecca. This is Robin. I'll address the first question that you have, and then I'll hand it over to Mike for the second part.

Steer-by-wire, certainly in the global market, we are seeing a lot of interest in that technology, especially when it comes to new battery electric vehicle platforms. As they begin thinking about developing these new platforms, there's the opportunity to convert to a new technology like steer-by-wire. So there is significant interest in the market. What we see in terms of start of production dates, mostly what we're seeing, there will be some early adopters in the next two or three years. But I would say the higher volume programs will start in 2028 and beyond. So if we're looking at a 2030 time frame, I would still think about 5% to maybe 10% market penetration by 2030. But certainly, we continue to see a lot of interest, and we have a lot of development contracts with customers in our second production award as we announced as well.

So we're certainly very optimistic about the technology. And like I said, I think the significant volumes won't start until 2028 and beyond.

Mike Bierlein
SVP and CFO, Nexteer Automotive

Thanks, Rebecca. I'll take the second one. And I guess how I would think about our margin progression, obviously, our margins have been impacted over the last several years as we saw this inflationary pressure impacting our current book of business as well as our backlog of book business. In 2022 EBITDA, we achieved a 9.5% EBITDA. And that was certainly a challenging number for us. And this management team is committed to continuing to expand margins. If you look into 2023 and back out these one-time items impacting our results, we expanded our profit EBITDA margins to 9.9%, so expanding by 40 basis points.

As we enter into 2024, we do see some tailwinds relative to further increased revenue, also the restructuring actions that we've taken and further cost-cutting reductions needed to continue to improve our margins. But again, it's going to take some time to work through the challenges that we've seen. But I think a very positive sign that we're starting to see improved margins. You can think about, as we enter 2024, probably a further similar improvement reaching low double-digit EBITDA margins in 2024.

Rebecca Wen
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question, Jesse Lo with Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

Jesse Lo
Director, Equity Research, Bank of America Securities

Thank you. Hi, Robin. Mike, thank you for taking my question.

So my first question is that as we continue to see strong booking win over the past few years and then more order wins or projects in APAC and EV-related, could you give any quantitative guidance on how much we could outperform the market growth in 2024? Any color or details are highly appreciated. My second question is that during this period, we haven't heard on further new order on steer-by-wire as we actually see Chinese OEMs are more likely to adopt new technology or components ahead of other global OEMs. So what is stopping them from confirming and adopting the steer-by-wire? Thank you.

Mike Bierlein
SVP and CFO, Nexteer Automotive

Thanks, Jesse. I'll take a shot at the first one. And Robin, you can try the second one.

So in terms of revenue growth, we do expect revenue to continue to grow into 2024, expecting another new record level of revenue in 2024, that being based on relatively flat global OEM production volumes as we see it. At this point, we're forecasting to outperform the market around 400-500 basis points, which will drive further revenue growth, certainly above market.

Robin Milavec
President, CTO and Chief Strategy Officer, Nexteer Automotive

Yeah. Hi, Jesse. This is Robin. So your second part of your question related to steer-by-wire opportunities in 2024, in particular the China market. Yes, we see significant opportunities in the China market. We have grown substantially with a lot of the China OEMs. And through that partnership, we are also in discussions with many of them on steer-by-wire. So the horizon of steer-by-wire looks very positive. Globally, we have a number of development projects that are underway.

We've got two formal business awards under our belt right now in addition to that. There are a number of China OEMs that we are working with on steer-by-wire. I'm not prepared to specify anything in terms of a formal award today, but I would expect that to be we would see something like that in the near term in terms of China OEMs implementing steer-by-wire Nexteer. It's something that we're very close to, and I see the strong potential of that very soon. The speed of the China market is something that is also driving this, that the technology needs to be ready, and it needs to be supported through our tech roadmap. I would say stay tuned. We should have something relative to the China market relatively soon.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today comes from Bin Wang with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Bin Wang
Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thank you. Number one, I want to confirm the number. Are you guided 2024 revenue growth will be between 4%-5%? Is that the revenue guidance? For the margin, EBITDA margin will be back to low double digit. So number one, I just want to confirm this number. Number two, I just also want to confirm the recurrent or organic 2023 net profit because since you said that it will be $74 million will be worth, if you add that back, the organic net profit in 2023 will be around $110 million. Is that true? Basically, I would just want to confirm this too. Thank you.

Mike Bierlein
SVP and CFO, Nexteer Automotive

Yeah. It's correct. You heard properly relative to your first question, Ben. Appreciate the clarification. We're expecting 4%-5% increase relative to revenue and continuing to expand our margins, low double-digit EBITDA levels.

In terms of the 2023 one-off items, correct, we total $75 million of one-off items. You can think of those as one-time issues impacting our financials in 2023 that we do not expect to happen in 2024. So that'll be certainly an automatic tailwind for us as we think about our year-over-year improvement.

Bin Wang
Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Maybe my last question is about R&D guidance because in the second half last year, the R&D actually started to decline. So if possible, can you give a guidance for 2024 R&D expense? Will it be similar as last year? Thank you.

Mike Bierlein
SVP and CFO, Nexteer Automotive

Yeah. Yes. With the initiative that we have around globalizing our engineering workforce, that is providing us with opportunities for efficiency as well as a lower cost profile.

Even though we are continuing to grow the top line of the business, we do expect our R&D costs to remain relatively stable from 2023 into 2024. I would just add that even though you can think about our R&D spend year-over-year to be flat, our goal is to increase our capacity for R&D as we implement our strategy of rotating our engineering resources throughout our division. This strategy will enable us to have an engineering footprint with an overall lower cost, more efficient because they're closer to our customers, our supply chain, and our manufacturing plants. We expect to build more capability and more competency at the same level of spend year-over-year. Great.

Bin Wang
Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Due to the limited time, that was today's final question. Thank you so much for all the questions and today's participation.

If there are any further queries, please contact us at investors@nexteer.com. The conference is now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

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