J&T Global Express Limited (HKG:1519)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2024

Jan 7, 2025

Operator

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Q4 2024 business update of today. Just wanted to remind you that during the conference, everyone will be muted until the Q&A portion. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one one. Just to remind you that this is the listen-only line for listening only and will provide recording. Now, turn the call over to Sylvia, the head of investment and financing of .

Hello, everyone.

Welcome, everyone, to the Q4 2024 business data update of , and this is Sylvia. The meeting materials have been sent to everyone by emails and also updated to the website of the company. Today, we have the management from , Dylan, and also the head of investment and financing, Simon. Today, we're going to have two parts. First of all, Simon will provide an overview of our business performance for Q4 2024 and also the full year. Following that, we're going to proceed to the Q&A section, during which the management team will address your questions and engage in discussions. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Simon. Good day, this is Simon. Now, I'm providing the overview of our Q4 and full year business performance for 2024.

In Q4, the group's total parcel volume reached 7.4 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.5%. Full year volume reached 44.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31%, primarily driven by Southeast Asia and China. First of all, the Southeast Asia, you can take a look at the page six of the material. With handling 1.4 billion parcels, making 62.5% of the increase year-on-year, and a volume total of 4.5 billion in the whole year, up 40.8% year-on-year. The key drivers in this region include, first of all, the low base in Q4 last year due to significant business disruptions faced by the key client caused by local policy changes. Second, the robust growth of a major client during the Q4 peak season promotional period.

Third, we have continued expansion into the segments such as the social media shipments and parcels, and also the key accounts, both of which recorded a strong growth and are also focus areas for future development. Next, in China, the Q4 parcel reached the 5.9 billion year-on-year increase of 27.4%. For the full year, the volume was 19.8 billion, up 29.1% year-on-year. The growth in China can be attributed to, first of all, relatively high industry growth of 21.4% from January to November. Second, the sustained rapid growth in platforms such as Douyin and PDD, where J&T enjoys a strong brand presence and customer valuation, enabling growth alongside these platforms. Third of all, continued expansion in reverse parcels and individual parcels, which maintain a high growth rate in Q4.

Daily average volume for reverse parcels reached 3.9 million in Q4, up 34%, and 3 million for the full year, reflecting 80% year-on-year increase. Next is the new markets. Q4 parcel volumes were flat year-on-year, with full year volume growth by 22.1%. These markets were impacted by short-term factors such as the Shopee fees shift, in-house logistics in Brazil, and fluctuations in cross-border policy. Additionally, ramping up volumes from new clients taking time, leading to transitional fees as new and existing clients overlap. Despite these challenges, emerging markets enable a very good potential due to low e-commerce penetration and per capita parcel volumes significantly below those of China and Southeast Asia, and also, during this period, we remain focused on optimizing our logistics networks, enhancing operational efficiency, and improving service quality to ensure seamless scalability when e-commerce platforms experience rapid growth.

So this concludes the overview of Q4 and full year business volumes for 2024, and we understand the high level of interest in the company's financial performance for 2024. However, as a matter of policy, we do not provide quarterly updates on financial guidance. Furthermore, the full year financial data of 2024 is still under preparation, but now we maintain the market guidance provided during our mid-year results announcement in August, and the full year financial data for 2024 will align with the guidance for 2025, which will release in early March. We encourage everybody to stay tuned. Thank you. Thank you very much, Simon. And this is the introduction of our performance in Q4. And now, we're going to have the Q&A section, and welcome all investors and analysts to ask questions. I look forward to engaging with you. All right, thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen.

Now, we're going to start the Q&A section. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one one. If you want to cancel, press star one and one again. The first question comes from Fan Tso from Bank of America, please. Right. We can hear you. All right, thank you very much, everyone. Happy New Year. I have several questions. The first one is about the Southeast Asian market. Can you help us to talk about the key accounts in Indonesia, which were impacted in 2024? So if we exclude these key accounts for the performance and had a comparison, what about the growth in the Southeast Asia market? And second question is that, what is the non-branded parcels? Like Harpo and also Apple and also the other operators, what about the growth for these businesses?

Also, comparing with the traditional platforms, how do you compare your business with them? There are two questions. The first one is about business excluding the key accounts in Indonesia. What about the growth rate if we exclude that in 2024? All right, basically, it is outperforming the guidance. Previously, we had our guidance, and we outperformed the guidance if we excluded the performance of the key account in Indonesia. Because of the privacy and also classified information of the key account, we will not view any data for that key account. But actually, this impact was limited because even if we exclude that business, we would outperform the guidance still. Second is the non-branded parcels, percentage of mix against the total. Now, it is a single digit at the current stage. Still, we have big rooms for further improvement.

That is why you can see that we're going to be focusing on this area of non-branded business in the future. All right, so whether the UE is actually better than the platform parcels, yes. And also for the operators, we're going to actually provide the financial guidance later. All right, no further questions from myself. Thank you very much.

Thank you. Next question is from Changjiang Securities. Mr. Hu, go ahead, please.

All right, good morning, everyone. To the management from . I have several questions. The first one is that we can see that in the Southeast Asia and also China market, comparing with the businesses of others, you can see that the total point of service number reduced, and also the volume of parcels per point of service have been increasing. What about the reasons behind?

And the second question is that in the Southeast Asia market, we've been seeing a more direct operational percentage. What were the reasons behind, and do you think that you have been reaching your expectations? All right, thank you very much. So your first question is that you've been seeing that in China and also in overseas, the franchisee's number and also the point of service number have been reducing, but actually, the total parcel number was increasing, right? So you were asking the reasons behind it. Okay, so the reasons are that, first of all, in Southeast Asia and also in China, we are now integrating the point of service and also the number of networks and also franchisees. Hopefully, that we will have better availability.

And also, we are going to work together with those franchisees that would like to work with us for a very long time so that we are able to increase the total percentage. So because of that, we are going to actually see the particular number of the franchisees and also the points of service, too, deducted by the total number. And you can see that the overall revenue and also the promotion have been increasing. All right, so could you actually please repeat the second question? All right. My second question is that you can see that in China and also in Southeast Asia, you were actually increasing the RDC and also the total number of the fleet that you own. So have you been reaching your expectations? All right, so in 2025 and 2026, we're going to increase the number of fleets.

And this is exactly the very important method for us to reduce the logistics cost. And in China, around 60% are self-owned. And in Southeast Asia, around half of the fleet were self-owned. And comparing with the other express delivery companies, we still have room for improvement. And also, a very large portion of our CapEx each year will be spent on increasing the fleet volume.

All right, thank you very much. No further questions from myself. All right, so the next question is from the Huaxi Securities, John Fung. Please ask your question.

John Fung, you can ask your question.

So this is John Fung. The first one is about the growth in Southeast Asia market. So in Q4, first of all, congratulations on your growth. What I would like to ask you is that, do you think that this high growth will be diluting your EBITDA per parcel? And also, what is about the situation now for the overall business? So this is Simon. Thank you very much for this question. First of all, in Southeast Asia markets, the high growth was attributed to the key accounts and also the low base of the previous sessions throughout the whole year of 2024.

If you are able to see the size of our points lines, in 2012, we had the key accounts business volume data released, and we had 96% of the increase, increasing from 16 million to 25 million with 77% of the increase on average in Southeast Asia market. So you can see that we still had a very organic growth in Southeast Asia market attributable to the growth of e-commerce platforms in Southeast Asia markets. And for the financial data at the current stage, we are not releasing them. So still, at the current stage, we maintain the guidance that we provided all those of last year. So you were asking some of the questions in Thailand. So in Thailand, we were talking about a very competitive market in Southeast Asia market.

And also, after several years, we found that it was pretty good, but still, we are preparing for the overall market share data for December. So actually, we are now having a very good performance in Thailand. And also, comparing with the peak season of last year, still, we had a very good performance in Q4. So the second question is about China. In China, we have observed that the overall parcel in the east and also in west is unbalanced, especially in the coastal region in China. So my question is that how are you going to balance the investment and also cost reduction in the middle and the west part of the country? If you had a lot of productivity investment, it will have redundancy. But if you have less investment, there will be lack of productivity.

And also, at the same time, the overall cost reduction is quite urgent. So how are you able to balance the relationship between the west and the east in terms of investment and also productivity? So in terms of the network construction, it's particularly dynamic. So I think that there were several points that are very important. The very first thing is that we had investment, and also we had a very low entry and also slow entry. So we had a very slow investment upfront. And also, at the current stage, we are actively engaging with more investment. And this is the very first point. Also, second is about the first is the CapEx on the self-construction and also the franchisee. And also, you know that we have just started investment on the self-owned construction and establishments.

Also, for those sites, the geographic locations are pretty much highly performative. From a long-term standpoint, we are going to have a very good standpoint. In the foreseeable future, I still believe that we will need a very big and also high-efficient management capabilities in place. Also, comparing with that, I think that you must know that we have also been using a strategy of relying on our own capability and also the strength of the construction in terms of the systems and also equipments. We are going to announce that result later. By having the in-house built equipments, we are able to increase our efficiency and also productivity at the same time.

Thank you very much, Dylan, Simon, and Sylvia, for the answers. Thank you. Now, we're going to have the next question from BOCI . Please.

Hello, everyone. This is Lisa. I have two follow-up questions about market shares. I don't know whether we are able to see the total market share of Q4 in Southeast Asia markets, and also, previously, you have already mentioned that in Southeast Asia market, you are able to increase the market share very quickly, so we would like to ask you that whether it is the case that it's quite okay for you to improve your market share if you focus on ASP, so what are the methods for you to reach the expectations of market share in Southeast Asia markets? So the second question is that do you have the latest updates for us? It's the first week of 2025. Now, we are about to have the Spring Festival in China, and what about the pricing now in China?

All right, so as to the very first question, there are two parts to the first question. The first one is that in the show, we are preparing for the data of the market share in the second half of 2024. We're going to announce that later together with our financial data, so we expect to have a very good improvement, and the second point is that, as you have already mentioned, apart from the market share, you also talked about the ASP, so the question is that whether we are able to realize the parcel increase and also the total market share increase by reducing ASP. Actually, by reducing ASP, you are able to get some of the business increase and parcel increase from the big e-commerce platform.

But actually, if you have a very good capability and productivity and also the parcel handling capability, you do not necessarily need to reduce ASP. So still, we need to have, first of all, the overall price was quite competitive. And also, at the time, you need to increase your capability of handling locally. These are very important also in Southeast Asia markets. This is one of the biggest markets in the world, and we have a very strong capability for years there for the operator. And also now, with new investments, we have a very good word of mouth among the customers in Southeast Asia market. So this is important when I have answered your question. Yeah, no problem for that. Okay, so the answer for the second part is about China market and in terms of the pricing in China. So it's just been several days in 2025.

We're going to have the data now available. Overall speaking, we have been seeing a similar performance versus peers in China. So overall speaking, my understanding is that we want to have a clear growth in 2025 and maintain a similar pricing strategy, but still, we kept a dynamic strategy. And also, we're going to perform our existing strategies as usual. Thank you.

Thank you very much for the answers. Next question is Ernest Roth from UBS. Please.

Happy New Year, everyone. So I have several questions from my end. First of all, we had a balanced expectation for the growth of business in Southeast Asia and also China. So we want to clarify these data. The number of parcels increasing in Southeast Asia market, the major growth was attributable by some of the key accounts' performance in Indonesia. And also second is the non-platform parcels increasing, right?

And for China market, you had actually the outperformance in the industry and also the increase in reverse parcels, right? Just wanted to clarify that. Yes. So part of the reasons for that, for the important customers, in 2023, we had a decrease because one of the key accounts' performance in a certain region or certain country was impacted and causing a low base number in 2023. Whereas we have already introduced in our prepared remarks that we still had above-expectation growth for the other segments. And also, my second is that apart from the reasons that you have mentioned in Q4, the major e-commerce platforms' customers had a very good growth in the peak season. So we had multiple customers that are growing at the same time that attributed to this good growth in China market.

And also for the China market, the overall picture is that the overall platform and also the overall network quality is pretty good. And also the handling capabilities are good. Also, the franchisee's operational capabilities are pretty good. And the point of service capability were improving. So these are also important reasons. Non-platform parcels, of course, these were helpful, but still, we have to rely on our overall organic growth of our own capabilities. These are very important for us. So for the Southeast Asia market, if you take a look at the Shopee's performance, what is the percentage of the business that's the total? Was it growing quite steadily or flat performance? As I have already mentioned that because of the requirements of our customers, we cannot give you the detailed figures from our customers.

But still, what we could expect is that in Southeast Asia market, we are collaborating with multiple platforms and brands, J-Pub and also Shopee and also the other brands. Also, we are collaborating with single-account or cross-border operators as well at the same time. Another one is in China market. We have seen that for the most parcels, it is becoming more competitive. So at this stage, what about the situation versus the normal parcels? So first of all, for the reverse parcels, this is not accounting for a very good proportion of the total parcels. And my second is that for the reverse parcels, actually, we can see that the competition is becoming more severe in recent quarters. And of course, that we are able to give you the financial performance and also the guidance later this year. All right.

So another following question is that in terms of pricing, the volume was good in Q4. So we wanted to know that in Southeast Asia, did you have the more robust and also more aggressive pricing strategy in Southeast Asia, or is it still the same? For the Southeast Asia market in Q4, the business growth was really good. But still, in terms of pricing, we kept pretty much similar as the guidance, 5%-10% ASP adjustment for the ASP. Actually, it was not because of the pricing strategy that we had a big volume increase because of the peak season and some of our customers' multiples were increasing. And they were having a very good promotional growth. So that was primarily due to the high performance during peak season.

All right. Thank you very much. This is my last question about the new markets. So for the emerging and new markets, what about the situation now, especially EP? And what about the planning for that? Do you have any news that could be provided and updated? All right. So in the last day from last year, in a short period of time, we had the major impacts from the Brazil market and also from macro standpoint with a little bit change of the cross-border policies.

But still, these are short-term factors. And also, at the same time, for some of the big potential customers, we are preparing the collaborations. So if we look into the future, all the platforms are actually preparing and planning quite actively. And now, I think that we are doing some of the whole preparations. And it is expected that the cross-border platforms in new markets in 2025 will become and also become.

Thank you very much, Simon and Dylan, for the answers. Thank you. Next question is from the Zhongtai Securities, Gu Shiping, please. Please.

All right. So hello, everyone. I have two minor questions. The first one is that, as you have already introduced, for the non-platform parcels, the business was increasing. And the Blue Moon has become the second largest partner. So we would like to know that in China market, what is the cost per parcel? And also, in the future, because it is becoming smaller and smaller for the volume of the parcels, and it is becoming a trend, so how do you expect that in the future for you? Second question is that in December, you can see that the other express delivery companies are adjusting their strategies. So in Guangzhou and also Chaoshan, what about the acceptance pricing for ?

Let me ask the question first. Let me answer the second question first. Actually, in November and December, our company had the adjustment on the price. So we had some of the measures as well together with the other companies. Overall speaking, we are just followers as we were sales on the profit margin. And so it is the cost and also the total volume of the parcels and also the overall profit margin is important for us. So we are not going to just follow the others and blindly. We want to increase the market share but still focusing on pretty good profit. And another question is about the key accounts. Sorry, could you please repeat the first question? So you can see that the parcel for Blue Moon is actually by the. So we'd like to know the weight per cost per parcel.

So actually speaking now, we have a little bit higher than the average. So on average, it's about 0.9 kilo for the peers, but we have the weight per parcel of more kilo. And actually, the average weight for us is pretty much quite stable without a very big kind of increase. And I think that is also relevant because of the structures of our customers and also some important clients.

All right. Thank you very much. No further questions from my side. All right. Next question is from Guo Jing from Nomura.

All right. So the question is about the Southeast Asia market. Could the management share with us that from the Shopee platform, how many parcels belong to you and also whether the trend is continuing in Q4? And if we exclude Shopee in Southeast Asia market, what about the sources of the growth of the parcel number?

Was it due to the parcel increase on existing platforms, or you were talking about very strong growth of the parcels on the existing platforms? And also, do you expect some of the newcomers of the e-commerce platforms that could contribute to your business? So I think that you have two questions, right? So the first question is about the percentage of Shopee and also the total mix of Shopee. Also, what about the in-house logistics of Shopee, right? So first of all, we are not convenient to comment on the customer, but still, we think that the in-house logistics is still quite high. And the overall trend is that I believe that Shopee is going to be increasing that. And this is the trend that we have been observing right now.

The second question is the business growth in Southeast Asia market, and what about the sources of the growth? We have actually both, I think. First of all, we are attributable by the increasing of our customers' contribution, first of all. And also, second, we have an increase in the total number of key accounts. Of course, because of the total mix from the key accounts, it is still quite low. And also, now we've been having a very good growth of the promotional seasons, especially 60%. And also, the key accounts' business are increasing quite steadily, but not as fast as 60% of the total platform. That's causing the results of a low mix of business contribution from key accounts. But if you're talking about the absolute number from key accounts, these are increasing quite big. And for several countries, they had several positive increases.

So not only we had the contribution from the also new customers, but also existing key accounts as well. All right. Thank you very much. All right. So there is no further question from online. Now we are going to hand the call over to the management to give you the conclusion remark.

Thank you very much, everyone, for staying with us for this conference call. And we encourage everybody to stay tuned to the 2024 year performance that we're going to be announcing in March of this year. Thank you very much, everyone.

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