Good morning, and welcome to the briefing for the FWD Group interim results for the six months ended 30th June 2025. My name is Evan Esterhuizen, the Group Treasurer for the FWD Group. We're about to start our Q&A session, so if you would like to ask a question, please click the Request to Speak function at the top right corner of the broadcast screen and enter your name and organization for your question to be queued. Over to you, operator.
We will now proceed with the first caller. We have Ms. Coco Gong from Morgan Stanley.
Hello. Thank you so much for taking our questions. This is CoCo from Morgan Stanley. Congratulations on a really set of strong results as well. I guess just more on the sort of VNB and new business side, we see obviously Hong Kong is a very key driver for our VNB growth for the first half. But sort of like considering the, you know, for second half and also some uncertainties in terms of the broker commission regulations coming in in 2026, we just wonder, you know, how we think about the Hong Kong VNB growth potentially in second half as well as, you know, going into 2026. Are you going to see some sort of audience changes in our distribution strategy and stuff like that? That's number one.
I guess number two is overall for the rest of the markets for the, for the rest of the year and look forward into potentially 2026, you know, how we see potentially, you know, the Japan market, our new product and how, you know, Thai market is going to turn around potentially, what the timeline would be. That's kind of the first set of questions in terms of VNB growth. Second, on a very small matter, I do see the Global Minimum Tax having an impact on some peers more substantially right now, obviously, because they're, you know, maybe a larger sort of volume.
I see that there's no significant impact on our IFRS-based reporting, but just sort of wondering going forward as we become more profitable in the future, like how do we think about this tax impact? Thank you.
Hi, CoCo. Thanks for the questions. It's Sid. Maybe I'll take them. Maybe starting with Hong Kong. You know, obviously, as we look at it, Hong Kong has had a very solid start to the year. As I alluded to in my comments, over time, we expect that growth, of course, to normalize and taper down. Going forward, what I'd probably say is, you know, as you look at the market, I think most consensus for the market has Hong Kong continuing to grow double digits. We think with our balanced distribution strategy as well as launch of new products, in particular, I commented on FWD Private and, for sure, you know, the response to FWD Private for us has really exceeded, the excitement has exceeded our initial expectations.
We're very positive on continuing that momentum as well. You know, with respect to broker and channel in Hong Kong, of course, you know, we've been completely supportive as an institution on, you know, the regulatory changes around participating product reform. You know, to date, our broker margins have been attractive and given us solid operating leverage in the business. Obviously, there'll be changes with commissions, but we don't see that having a material impact for us over time on the margin side. And we have levers, we believe, to manage that. Maybe turning to your second question, which was around 2026 growth. I think we've commented a lot, both Phong and I, that, and I'll have Phong add on to this with anything that I miss.
I think with respect to 2026 growth, you know, we feel we've got solid momentum across, frankly, all our businesses, and I think you can see that in the results. With respect to Japan, yeah, we absolutely believe that the savings and retirement market in Japan is going to be a very meaningful opportunity. We've just recently launched our Japan single premium annuity, so very early days. As we look at that product and the interest rate environment and the customer need over the next, you know, six, 12, 18 months, you know, we think we're gonna continue to deliver, you know, solid growth, albeit that we've pointed out with Japan, any growth in savings will balance out in higher volume and slightly lower margin and savings from protection.
With respect to Thailand, you know, we pointed out that the second quarter, obviously in our kind of transformation and re-underwriting of the portfolio, had better growth dynamics than the first quarter. I think we continue to be optimistic. Obviously, Thailand has been a flagship market for us, delivered solid results for many years. As we look into 2026, we do think that over time, that market will rebound. You didn't allude to emerging markets in your comments for 2026, but obviously we've got good momentum there, and we feel confident about our position with many leading businesses. Phong, anything you think I missed or anything you'd add to that?
You cover pretty well, so.
On your final question, which is GMT, yes. Actually, you know, there were mild expense for GMT under IFRS of just over $1 million in the first half of 2025. We didn't call it out, but the impact of GMT, we did have a decrease in EV in the results of approximately $60 million, and CSM on IFRS declined by approximately $80 million. That impact was primarily from Cayman and Macau. For us, you know, we've enacted GMT rules in Hong Kong and they apply to the entire group starting from the beginning of the year. We're comfortable with our position vis-a-vis GMT as it stands today.
Thank you so much.
Thank you, Ms. Gong. Next in line, we have Mr. Thomas Wang from Goldman Sachs. Mr. Wang.
Uh.
Your line is open. Please kindly go ahead.
Great. Thank you for taking my question and congrats on the numbers. A few questions. I think firstly on EV operating margins it's good to see it's a positive number in the first half. I think if I do the calculations it's a slight negative in the second quarter. Just wanna check anything particular to note and also how you think about the impact going forward as we see current operating experience tracking basically related to some extent. Secondly on the free surplus generation is quite strong. It's quite strong indeed. Growth there. Also you have the IPO proceeds. Any update on how you're planning to use that and whether you pay down debt or any other capital management plans you have.
Thomas , it's Sid here. Unfortunately there's a little bit of background noise, so I don't think any of us in the room caught your question perfectly. I did catch your first question or the first part of your question, which was around EV and operating variances, and I think that referred to just first half and then the split between 1Q and 2Q. There was some volatility and seasonality in claims in Japan between the first quarter and second quarter. We would point you to the full kind of first half as always being more indicative of kind of the run rate there vis-a-vis how to think about the operating variances.
Obviously for us from an overall perspective, I think I've alluded to this, that you know, this is four straight quarters with respect to variances that we feel very confident we're trending in the right direction. Obviously a great start to the year, we think from the first half there. With respect to your other questions, is it possible for you to repeat them again so that we can make sure we catch them? Or otherwise we'll probably ask you to send them to Evan or someone else via email to make sure that Phong and I could get to them.
Sure. Can you hear me better now?
Yeah, I think there's no background noise there.
Okay, great. I just wanna second question on the free surplus generation part. It's quite strong in the first half. Also company has got the IPO proceeds. Just wanna check any color you have now, post the listing on how you plan to use the proceeds and any update on sort of capital management plan. Thank you.
Great. No, actually that was very clear. Thank you. Yeah, on free surplus generation, clearly a very strong result, and I think it's obviously a KPI we're very focused on. We did call out that there was some benefit from a one-off reinsurance transaction there in the opening adjustment of approximately $100 million. I think we're very proud of kind of the trajectory, a young company has delivered with respect to UFSG and free surplus generation. You know, vis-a-vis capital management and the proceeds, I think I've been pretty consistent on this topic. You know, we feel first, you know, very confident in kind of the capital base and our trajectory to support growth.
I've called out that our leverage is running higher than you know what I think is reasonable long-term target, which we've called out, we think should be around 15%-20%. In particular, given the high cost of that debt and that leverage, you know, I think there's too much value leakage going on from shareholders to debt holders right now. Of course, we're gonna continue to evaluate that and look at it. I think that clearly from a capital management standpoint, that leverage remains a top priority.
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Wang. Our next questions come from Mr. Chang from CGS International. Mr. Chang, you're on the line.
Hi, can you hear me well?
Perfectly. Please proceed.
Sure. Thanks a lot. I have three questions. I think maybe the first one, just now, Sid, you talked about KPIs, and you talked about free surplus generation. Was wondering whether you could elaborate a bit more on the senior management KPIs that determine both the annual bonuses as well as the long-term incentive plans. How important are the metrics for new business, and should investors focus more on, say, new business CSM or value of new business? Then how important are metrics like operating profit growth, free surplus generation, and relative total shareholder return? That's the first one. Secondly, Phong just now highlighted the value of new business mix. Right now it's more heavily weighted towards the brokerage channel.
Banc assurance is second, and then you've got the agency and then digital. Could you maybe shed some light on whether you have any targets to follow more up on a more balanced or optimal long-term distribution mix in terms of value of new business? Should we still expect the broker channel to comprise, say more than 50% after three to five years? Or are you looking to grow out the channels more significantly? On that front, maybe you can opine as well in terms of your agent growth plans or your any plans for Banc assurance tie-ups. Then maybe just lastly, in terms of the operating profit, Japan is a sizable portion. I think all the other regions were all very strong double digits.
Japan, I know that the higher tax rate was a factor, but maybe you can shed some light on the one-off claim factors that's driving the Japan OPAT weakness, and what are the plans to improve the Japan operating profit pre-tax performance going forward? Thanks so much.
Sure. Thanks Michael, great questions. Why don't I take the first and third one to open and then I'll hand it over to Phong and he can talk a little bit more about channel mix and distribution strategy. You know, with respect to KPIs, I'd probably say a couple of things. You know, given the evolution of the company and, you know, the maturity of its financial performance that, you know, we're quite proud of in the results, you know, the company has moved much more towards what I would refer to as a balanced scorecard. That balance is focused on, of course, growth metrics, which would include new business CSM and VNB, but also a big focus on profitability, so both operating profit and net profit are important metrics for us.
As well as we think kind of a cash and capital, so free cash flow has been an important metrics for us, as well as ultimately surplus generation. You know, in addition, I would say ultimately we think, you know, getting that balance right, you know, we can deliver on real value creation, both with respect to CTE and embedded value. Our hope is, you know, of course, an important measurement for us over time will also be as a new public company, TSR, because we think, that'll be a great measure for shareholder value creation. Vis-à-vis, you know, your final question, which was around operating profit in Japan. You know, I would say there's nothing notable there that really gives me pause.
You know, the biggest driver was what we think is a one-time jumbo case that created a claim spike in the OPAT in the first half of the year. You know, over time, we wouldn't expect that to be a recurring issue. Maybe with that, I will, Phong, turn it over to you to tackle the second question.
Yeah, thanks, Sid, and thanks Michael for the question. If you take a step back first, the thing that we are most proud of in terms of the competitive advantage that we built is number one, that geographic footprint in the profitable markets that we want to be in. The fact that we have what we say, the most modern and nimble tech stack that allow us to compete much faster and move much faster than the competitor. The third elements and that's your question is in terms of distribution. This is where we have built across the region a very diversified set of distribution channels in various markets.
The key thing is if you look overall for us, roughly about 42% of our sales come from the Bancassurance channels. In this first half of the year, roughly about 38% come from the IFA broker channel and 14% from our quality agencies channel. The approach has always been why we build a diversified channel distribution strategy. We never have a one-size-fits-all in each of the market that we operate in, and we leverage each of these channel differently. If you look at the cost, I think the
When it comes to Bancassurance, we're pretty proud of the set of what we call national champion bank partners that we have been able to assemble across the markets, especially in Southeast Asia. In terms of agency, again, while it is smaller, it is very well focused on we were very focused on building a high-quality agency channel. We consistently in the top 10 when it comes to MDRT agency. Last year and this year, for example, the growth of agency channel is mainly productivity driven, with 50% increase in productivity gain in this channel. For IFA and broker, again, this is something that Sid shared with you earlier on our Hong Kong experience, for example.
With the right pricing discipline, I think this is one channel that can deliver a good economics for us across the region, especially in the wealth hub of Singapore and Hong Kong and Japan. We continue to push this. This diversified approach to distribution and then be very nimble and push the pedal on the gas in the right place at the right time in different markets, I think that's the key for us.
Thank you, Mr. Chang.
Thanks a lot.
Thank you. We will now address final questions from Mr. Chris Lee with BNP.
Yeah, thanks for taking my question, and congratulations on the strong results. We noticed that some of your stuff that had IPO redemption clauses, and now after the successful IPO, how would you view these options? What is your medium to long-term target of LCSM coverage ratio, as it is already rather high compared to the industry? The related question is on your LCSM coverage ratio. It's getting a bit more sensitive to interest rate movement this year. Can you shed a bit more color on your average duration for life business on the asset and liability side? Thank you.
Yeah. I'll take that. Obviously, you know, we don't comment on specific instruments. You know, wouldn't add any particular color there on that question. Vis-à-vis capital ratios, you know, clearly you can see that this company has a very strong capital base. We're pleased with all of the management actions we've taken around risk management from using reinsurance efficiently, asset liability management, and de-risking some of the strategic asset allocation. So we feel very strongly that we're very well positioned for growth. You know, on the ALM side, we're extremely well matched across countries. We've eliminated any material mismatches in any of our geographies. Again, even though the markets are relatively volatile with respect to interest rates, you know, we are well matched as we sit here today.
Thank you, Mr. Lee. Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions today. If we were unable to get to your query, our group investor relations team will be pleased to follow up with you directly after the event.
This concludes our 2025 interim results analyst briefing. On behalf of FWD, thank you all again for your participation. As a reminder, presentation materials, recordings, and transcripts from today's briefing can be downloaded from the investor relations section of our corporate website. Thank you again.