Welcome to today's Pacific Basin 2023 third quarter trading update conference call. I am pleased to present Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Martin Fruergaard, and Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Michael Jørgensen. For the first part of this call, all participants will be in listen-only mode, and afterwards, there will be a question and answer session. Mr. Fruergaard, please begin.
Yeah, thank you. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for attending Pacific Basin's third quarter trading update. My name is Martin Fruergaard, CEO of Pacific Basin, and I'm pleased to have our CFO, Michael Jørgensen, with me today. Assuming that you have already gone through the presentation, I will briefly highlight some of the key points discussed in it before we proceed with the Q&A session. Please turn to slide three. During the third quarter of 2023, there was a seasonal improvement in the market freight rates for Handysize and Supramax. Rates increased strongly from the middle of August and continued through September, ending the period at $10,558 and $13,339 net per day for Handysize and Supramax, respectively.
The primary reason for this being the East Coast South America grain season, specifically in Brazil, which led to a significant increase in grain exports, coupled with higher seasonal dry bulk demand. This improvement in sentiment and demand was seen across all dry bulk segments, which has supported significantly improving rates despite decelerating global growth, high interest rate, and increased vessel supply. Market spot rates for Handysize and Supramax vessels averaged $7,660 and $9,530 net per day, respectively, in the third quarter of 2023. Please turn to slide four. Minor bulk loadings in the third quarter were approximately 2% higher due to increased loadings of steel aggregates and bauxite, while forest products, cement and clinker, and alumina were the largest detractors.
Iron ore loadings increased 2% in the third quarter due to higher production in both Australia and Brazil. There was growing demand for steel across multiple sectors, including motor vehicle manufacturing, shipbuilding, infrastructure development, and power generation. Despite earlier predictions that Chinese steel production would remain stagnant due to stricter environmental regulations and limited investments in steelmaking capacity, China actually has, actually has seen a 3% increase in steel production and a 27% increase in steel exports in the year leading up to August. In the third quarter of 2023, global grain loadings experienced a 5% decline compared to the same period in 2022. This decrease can be attributed to lower loadings from Argentina and the United States, as well as the Black Sea grain deal cancellation in July, which limited Ukraine exports.
However, Brazil emerged as a major contributor to grain loadings in the third quarter, loading an impressive 46.7 million tons of grains over three months, representing a significant increase of 19% compared to the same period in 2022. A 1% decrease in global coal loadings in the third quarter of 2023 is attributed to a slowing of Indian imports. In contrast, China has been facing low hydroelectric and energy security consumption concerns despite record domestic coal production. As a result, China has maintained a high level of coal imports during the third quarter. Please turn to slide five.
Our core business generated average Handysize and Supramax daily TCE earnings of $10,200 and $11,540 net per day, respectively, in the third quarter of 2023, being a decrease of 57% for both sizes compared to the much stronger third quarter of 2022. For the fourth quarter of 2023, we have covered 70% and 86% of our core committed vessel days at $11,250 and $13,240 net per day for Handysize and Supramax, respectively. Our PL breakeven, including general and administrative overheads, was $9,600 and $11,190 per day for Handysize and Supramax, respectively, in the first half of 2023.
For the full year 2024, we currently have covered 22% and 25% of our core vessel days at $8,590 and $13,720 net per day for Handysize and Supramax, respectively. Supramax cover rates exclude any scrubber benefits, which currently is about $330 net, $330 per day across our entire core Supramax fleet. We are currently focused on optimizing our short-term cover to maximize earnings over the first quarter of 2024, which is commonly a softer market during the Northern Hemisphere winter and Lunar New Year periods. For the first quarter of 2024, we have covered 29% and 33% of our core committed vessel days at $9,470 and $13,290 net per day for Handysize and Supramax, respectively....
Forward freight agreement, commonly referred to as FFAs, are for the fourth quarter of 2023 at $12,250 and $13,510 per day for Handysize and Supramax, respectively. Please turn to slide six. Our Handysize and Supramax TC earnings outperformed the spot market index by $2,540 per day, and $2,010 per day, respectively, in the quarter. Our Supramax outperformance continue to benefit from the 33 scrubbers installed across our own fleet, the scrubbers contributing $450 per day to our outperformance over the period. Current value of Supramax scrubber benefits is approximately $330 per day across our entire core Supramax fleet.
Our operating activity also contributed positively, generating a positive margin of $1,160 net per day, over 6,810 operating days in the third quarter. Our third quarter operating days increased by 42% compared to the same period last year, and we currently have approximately 145 short-term chartered Handysize and Supramax vessels servicing customers. Our operating activity provide us with an ongoing opportunity to leverage Pacific Basin's commercial and operational expertise, as well as our global proximity to our customers, to generate additional income for the business. Please turn to slide seven. During the third quarter of 2023, we sold three of our smaller, older Handysize vessels and one older Supramax vessel. This year, we have sold a total of six vessels, including five Handysize and one Supramax vessel, with an average age of 19 years.
In light of existing and incoming decarbonization regulations, we foresee older, less efficient vessels will become increasingly challenging to operate. Therefore, we gradually wish to divest ourself of our least efficient vessels. We believe, asset prices for new and modern secondhand vessels will remain elevated due to increased, new building input cost and limited yard capacity. To support the growth and renewal of our core fleet, we have entered agreement for long-term charter in of Handysize and Ultramax vessels. In July, we took delivery of a 40,000 deadweight ton Handysize built in Japan, with two more scheduled to be delivered in November and December, this year. In addition, four additional 40,000, deadweight ton Japanese-built Handysize new buildings, all with scrubbers, will be delivered during 2024.
As well as three newbuilding Ultramax vessels, with one scheduled to be delivered in 2024 and two in 2025. Furthermore, each of these time charters comes with an option to extend the charter agreement period at a fixed rate, and we have the option to purchase the vessels at fixed prices, which further expands our optionality. Including all current agreed sales and purchase, our core fleet consists of 135 Handysize and Supramax vessels, including chartered vessels in our operating business. We currently have approximately 280 vessels on the water overall. Please turn to slide nine. Despite the negative commentary around surrounding China's post-COVID economic recovery, we see positive demand for commodities, which is supporting dry bulk demand through investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, commercial, and industrial property construction, and green transition initiatives.
While reducing construction of new domestic housing in China is still having a significant negative impact on the country's economic growth and to the demand for some minor bulk commodities, it is worth noting that new policy support is continuing to be implemented to further encourage domestic property construction and increase investment in infrastructure. This suggests that the Chinese government is taking proactive measures to improve economic growth. China's import of coal, as I mentioned earlier, in combination with imports of iron ore, bauxite, and other minor bulk commodities, as well as export of steel products, has been a significant supporter of the market. Please turn to slide 10.
In the third quarter, there was an increase in the number of vessels scrapped, with a total of 2.3 million deadweight tons scrapped, contributing to a total of 4.9 million deadweight tons scrapped in the year so far. As to the year-to-date, as of the year-to-date 2023, there has been a significant increase in scrapping of both Handysize and Supramax vessels compared to last year. While scrapping levels have been relatively low, we expect an increase in scrapping as environmental regulations make it more difficult for older, less efficient vessels to compete and comply. The average age of Handysize and Supramax vessels scrapped between 2019 and 2023 is over 30 years, and could help to explain partly why we have seen only limited scrapping year to date, despite the lower TCE rate environment.
Clarksons Research reports that minor bulk vessels, of over 25 years old, which are potential scrapping candidates, make up approximately 8% and 4% of the global Handysize and Supramax fleets, respectively. In regards to Handysize and Supramax vessels, Clarksons Research forecast scrapping of 0.7% for the full year 2023, before increasing to 1.3% in 2024. Please turn to slide eleven. New building ordering in dry bulk continues to be constrained with a near decade low of 8.1% of the total fleet on order. In comparison to 2022, new building ordering of Handysize and Supramax vessels decreased approximately 30% year to date, and 64% in the third quarter of 2023.
Dry bulk shipyard slots remain limited, resulting in a new order placed today, unlikely to be delivered before 2027, with the majority of incremental new shipyard capacity concentrated on non-bulk vessels. This provides us visibility on new vessel supply, with 2024 being the peak for Handysize and Supramax vessels deliveries. While vessel deliveries can be delayed, it is difficult for the 2026 delivery forecast to be meaningfully increased. We continue to believe that the high cost of new buildings, uncertainty over new environmental regulations, and the higher interest rate environment, will continue to discourage any significant new dry bulk vessel ordering. Continued low ordering efforts to reduce carbon intensity and increase scrapping in the coming few years, could create a shortage of vessels and provide long-term structural undersupply to the market.
Please turn to slide twelve. It is our belief that the implementation of decarbonization policies continues. Conventional, conventional investors will face increasing pressure to comply. In our previous result call, we noted that the IMO in July adopted a more ambitious greenhouse gas strategy, with the goal of achieving net zero emissions for international shipping by approximately 2050. While we continue to be focused on optimizing our fleet for compliance with these regulations, we would also like to mention the EU, or the European Union Emissions Trading System, which is set to be implemented on January 1st, 2024. This regulation will require shipping companies that emit carbon to buy and surrender EU allowances for carbon emissions for voyages to, from, and within the EU, with these carbon allowances currently costing approximately EUR 80-EUR 100 per ton of CO2.
This entails a three-year phasing period, increasing scope from 40% of emissions in 2024, and 70% in 2025, and 100% in 2026. This incremental cost will be included in our freight costs, which will be covered by customers. We expect that this regulation will also drive a faster pace of decarbonization, with the near-term impact being that vessel speed will reduce over time to limit carbon emissions, and the associated cost of EU carbon emission allowances, with the benefit of lower vessel supply. We expect that further decarbonization regulations such as FuelEU , U.S. Clean Shipping Act, International Marine Pollution Accountability Act, and an IMO carbon pricing measure, will slow global average vessel speed, increase scrapping, and limit the appeal of conventionally fueled new building vessels, and further incentivize vessel owner over time to transition to green fuels.
Please turn to slide 16. In the short term, we expect coal and grain to continue to support dry bulk demands for the remainder of the year, due to seasonality, change in trade flows, and global issues of food and energy security. In the longer term, we continue to believe that the high cost of new buildings, uncertainty over new environmental regulations, and the high interest rate environment will continue to discourage any significant new build dry bulk vessels ordering. A low order book and efforts to reduce carbon intensity will likely lead to slower speed and increased scrapping in the coming few years, which could create a shortage of vessels and provide long-term structural undersupply to the market.
We are excited about the long-term prospects of dry bulk shipping, given dry bulk demand, which remains supported by strong supply-side fundamentals and ongoing implementation of existing and new decarbonization rules. We are optimistic about the future of the dry bulk market, and anticipate underlying demand and supply fundamentals will allow us to generate steadier and more sustainable earnings over the long term. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our third quarter trading update presentation. I will now hand over the call to our operator for Q&A.
We will now begin our question and answer session. If you have a question for today's speaker, please join the Zoom link via the blue Ask a Question button. Press the Raise Hand button, and you will enter a queue. After you are announced, please unmute yourself, state your name and company, and ask your question. If you find that your question has been answered before it is your turn to speak, please press the Lower Hand button to leave the queue. You may also type your questions in the Q&A box. Our first question comes from Parash Jain. Please unmute yourself.
Hi, can you hear me?
We can hear you, Parash.
Yeah. Hi. Hi, Martin and Michael. Maybe my first question is for Michael, and if I can ask the other two to Michael. So Martin, can you remind us the CapEx plan for this, and what is left for this year, and what are you aiming for next year? My understanding is that with a lot of your large vessels are scrubber fitted now, and probably a lot of ballast water retrofitting is done. With probably lower CapEx intensity and no desire to invest into the new build, what is the best way to use the free cash flow that your business on a steady state basis is likely to generate? Are there opportunities to continuously look for right-size older vessels, or you think that probably shareholders could see the surplus cash flow coming their way?
And if I may ask, or you want to answer this, and then I go to the next one.
Yeah, yeah, if I try to answer first, you can say you, you're correct. Our CapEx at the moment is basically down to the dry docks of the ships. You're right, we have probably scrubbers on as many of the ships that we need at the moment, and also the ballast water thing is progressing and is probably finished. Yes, you're correct, that sort of the firm CapEx is all about the dry docks at the moment. You can say we continue to... Our strategy is still to grow, and we will continue to, we are continuing to look for opportunities to grow, especially on the second-hand side of it, which we still feel is interesting.
There's no doubt that, you know, period of time this year, the prices are high, very high for the assets. Of course, we have not been—we were very active in the beginning of the year, and we've been a little bit looking at the market for a while. You know, we are still in the market, trying to find good opportunities to buy, and especially on the second-hand basis. I think it's fair to say, and we have said it before as well, we are not buyers of new building for conventional ships, and especially not at the rate level or price level that you see at the moment. That is correct.
You can say, Parash, of course, you're right. If we can't find attractive investment opportunities, and we have very positive cash flow, yeah, as always, we will of course look at how we can return that best to our shareholders.
Okay. I think that's very, very helpful. My second question, or rather, I'll combine the second and third. We talked about upcoming regulations and probably EEXI and CII in some shape or form in place. How soon you reckon we will see the impact in terms of drawing capacity out of the market, whether it's in the form of slow steaming? Secondly, is that given those environmental concern-related expenses, what level of freight, freight you reckon is kind of line on the sand, which will accelerate the scrapping? With its scenario of July, August, probably if it sustains, that will push. Because at the end of the day, even if the vessels are old, and if the spot rate remains where they are, probably even the marginal guys are in the money, and there's no incentive to scrap.
So I just wanted to get your thoughts on probably any magic number in terms of freight, where we could see scrapping, and any near-term impact that you have seen with respect to EEXI and CII.
Yeah. If we take the environmental regulations first, Parash, then the fact is, at the moment, with the relatively high oil price, most of the fleet is already, as you know, slow steaming. So you can say the impact of the IMO rules is limited because we're already slow steaming in it. As we go along and proceed forward, we still have fairly high oil prices and therefore high fuel prices. So I think the speed reduction will continue. So you probably won't see any sort of major impact within the next couple of years.
But you can say if the market really recovers, what you will see is that it will be impossible for us to go back to full speed, because then the impact of the rules will, will come in. Remember that from 2024, we have to reduce every year, our emissions, so therefore we have to reduce... And one of the ways to do it is to reduce your speed, and we have already done that, so, so that's fine. But, but as we go along, we cannot just increase, we cannot just increase or up to full speed again, because there will be a ceiling in respect to the, to the, the IMO rules in it.
I also have to be fair to say that we are still waiting for IMO to tell us how they want to enforce these rules, and I think that will only happen in 2025. So I think the real impact of it will probably come in 2025, when we know exactly how they will impact how they will enforce the rules.
Fair.
Yeah, in respect to scrapping, yeah, you can say the last couple of years has been very, very little scrapping going on, so you can say the pool of scrapping candidates has, of course, increased. And of course, the people have, you know, kept trading the ships because the rate has been so good, so there's been a positive cash flow even on the, on the older ships. That has, that of course, changed during the summer when the market was on a, on a nice $37,000 or a nice $58,000. It was, market was at $7,000, at least the index was at $7,000. At that level, a small Handysize, old Handysize and a small, older Supramax will be in probably cash negative environment.
You can say if that level goes on for too long, of course, any owner will be hesitant to put the ship into dry dock and spend another $1 million for a ship that is actually generating negative cash flow in it. Now, the market has recovered somewhat, and I think at the moment, at current rates, I do think actually they are positive cash flow again. I also think we have to remember that many owners probably have had some good years, and of course, have a very nice balance sheet and probably can afford to take a chance on it. Maybe they go through one more dry dock, but reality is then, then probably next time it's gonna be very, very difficult to do it again.
So I can say the pool of scrapping candidates is just increasing. And I think that is when you come back to the supply, because there will be some ships being delivered next year, but the pool of scrapping candidate is actually increasing, and I think that is quite interesting also for the future. That they will, they will have to go for scrap at a certain stage. But as long as the freight rates are nice, there's a good positive cash flow, they can also justify a $1 million investment in a dry dock. I think you will, of course, try to keep them going now.
Yeah. Thank you so much, and I'll probably get in the queue for my next questions. Thank you, and have a lovely evening.
Thank you, Parash.
Our next question comes from an unnamed Zoom user. Please unmute yourself and introduce yourself with your name and company.
Hello, hello. Can you hear me?
We can hear you.
Hey. Hi, it's Andrew from Jefferies. I'm not sure why my name has not popped up. So hi, guys.
Hi, Andrew.
Tech, I'm not that tech-savvy. It's okay. I blame, I blame it on that. Okay, I have a few, I have a few questions, right? The first question I have, can you remind me how many new long-term charter did you have on the, both the, well, Supramax and the Handysize? Also, what's the length of these contracts, and what's the charter rate? I'm trying to work out in terms of does it make a material change, right, to your, to your costs? That's the first question. Second question is related to you seem relatively optimistic, right, for the rest of the year, citing that coal, grain demand is probably stronger into the for the rest of the year. Does that mean that you expect that spot rates will be higher?
But if I look at the FFAs, it's probably close to where the spot rates are, right? So I'm just trying to gel those two things together. Third question I have is on the, your expectations on the outlook. When you announced your results in your interim results versus now when you're announcing your, now your, your third quarter trading update, I would say, are you a bit more optimistic or more bearish, right? Because my read-through seems to be as if you're pushing out the recovery into more of a longer term rather than into a medium term, right? Or did I get that wrong? And then finally, you talk about, like, potential returns to the shareholders. Would that be via dividends, or do you think that would be via share buyback? That's the questions I have for now. Thank you.
Okay, let's see, Andrew, if I can remember all the questions. But I think we start with the long-term time charter deals. We, we already, of course, in our existing fleet have some long-term time charter deals, but, but we actually have 10 ships coming. One is actually already been delivered, and we have nine more coming of a long-term, what we call long-term time charter deals. And that is, besides the one we already got, it's six Handysizes, additional Handysizes, and then three Supramaxes, 43,000 deadweight. One is out of docks in China, and the rest is from Japanese shipyards. It is in total 45 years of time charter commitments that we have taken. It's the, the Handysizes, the total seven Handysizes.
It is from three-five years charter with options for additional years. And for these Ultramaxes, it's a five-year charters also with additional years of options, and all ships is with purchase options. And you can see it a little bit as we sold a number of our smaller, especially our Handysizes, and we have taken these a little bit as a, you know, going in again, having some nice modern ships with a little bit more optionality into the business, which we actually like. Of course, in combination with the many ships that we own, we think this is a good combination. Do we normally give a freight to TC rates, edit?
Sure.
We'll look at that if we have to come back on that one. But I think we have a very good name in Japan, and we normally get. We also done this at good timing, I think. So we have a very competitive time charter levels, when you compare to what's been done in Japan, lately. And you can say that another advantage of these time charter deals, Andrew, is that of course, with the increased interest rate level, these are, these are actually fairly cheaper relatively to, to, to buying. I hope that was a good answer on that one. And then in respect to the spot rates, you are right, the rates are up, very strongly at the moment, actually.
But yeah, but if you look at the FFAs or derivatives going forward, they are coming down, especially in first quarter. I think it's also fair to say, if you look at the physical time charter level for one year, it's actually higher than the index or the derivative markets. So there is probably, at the moment, a little bit where actually the physical market looks a little bit more positive on the future than the derivatives does at the moment. In it, you can say we are also entering the contract season, and that's actually quite nice to do that at a time and place where actually the index is, and the market is at a good level.
So we of course hope to be able to use that market to take a little cover for next year. Because I think when we look ahead for next year, there is a little bit back to this, where the seasonality of the market, the normal seasonality is back, and we do actually see first quarter as normal will be a little bit weaker than the current market. That's also what the derivative when you look at that one, that also what that indicates in it. But if you look at full year, next year on the derivative, it actually doesn't look that bad. But yes, you're right, it's less than current index for next year. You're absolutely right.
When we spoke about the outlook, when we had the, the interim result, we did—I think we, the word we don't like to say too much, but, but we did talk about headwind at, at that time, and I think we were actually correct because it was $7,000. At least the index was $7,000 at a certain stage, in it. So I think it was fair to say there was a little bit of headwind at that time. I think actually we, we are, we are not up, we are not surprised about that the market came up now, but it came actually driven also by China, which I think maybe we're a little bit, pleased about, actually.
We still lack the 8% congestion that would help us a little bit, but we do see congestion coming up in South America, and we also see congestion in Panama due to the water level and so on. Let's see what's going to happen in the U.S. when they start exporting the grain. Now, there is some issues on the Mississippi River with low water level and high barging costs and so on, which might cause some delays and issues. Yes, I think we are more optimistic now than we were at the half year.
But still, we feel first quarter, there's still a little bit of seasonality into that, but we actually do see a year, next year, where we do see more positive outlook for minor bulk volumes. And of course, we have a hope and a belief that the Chinese government will succeed with their attempt to maybe, I wouldn't say re-inject or re-energize the market, but maybe get the property market going again, because that would be quite helpful for minor bulk. And we probably have a feeling that the U.S. is not doing too badly, and hopefully there will be a soft landing in the U.S. And based on that, we are actually quite optimistic about next year.
In respect to return and dividend or share buybacks, I think we are as always looking at share buybacks, and it's clear that... that is actually the case at the moment, that we are trading at a discount to our NAV. So we again feel that our share price is unfair and unreasonable. But you can say the asset values are extremely good at the moment, and then when you look at our share price, we are trading at a discount to NAV. So that would actually indicate that maybe share buybacks would be an option to do. I think we take that decision, and of course, by the end of the day, it's the board who decides exactly how we're going to do that.
I think our discussion is always that we, you know, we would love to find good investment opportunities and spend the money in growing the business, and hopefully there will be some opportunities coming up with that. If, hopefully good results, and if there's an opportunity to pay out to our shareholders, we will of course do so. We will, of course, evaluate the best structure of doing that, if it should be dividend or even share buybacks. We'll come back to that when we come into February with the full year result.
Okay. Thank you. I have a few more questions, but I'll get back into the line, and I'll ask next time, later on today. Thank you.
Please do, Andrew. Thank you.
If you have a question, please join the Zoom link via the blue Ask a Question button. Press the Raise Hand button, and you will enter a queue. You may also type your questions in the Q&A box. Our next question comes from Nathan Gee. Please unmute yourself.
Hi, hi, team. Thanks for the call. Maybe just two questions from me. Firstly, can you just talk about the lower sort of Supra rate premiums in Q3? So I think they were down to around $2k. You've been trending more around sort of the $3,000-$4,000 in the past few halves. So some of this is scrubber margin, but what else is driving that? So that's question one. Question two, can you just help us also better understand the first quarter secured rates? They actually look pretty good for Supra, despite some of the backhaul there. So just help me understand that. And then just 2024 more generally, do you think there's going to be enough demand to just absorb the 4.5% new deliveries that we're facing in Supra and Handy? Thanks.
Yeah. Thank you. Yeah, well spotted on the lower Supra rates for third quarter. And so that is clear, and I think what happened is that normally summer period is slow. We'd actually had very good cover when we came into it, actually also at a higher level. I think that's also what you indicate, and then the end result is actually that it came out lower than the cover we had at the time. I think we had 92% coming into third quarter at somewhat higher, about $1,000 higher rate. Scrubbers might be a little bit of it, but actually, we actually feel it's more the fact that many of our customers have probably pushed their contract cargoes into a later...
So that, so that's also maybe explain a little bit why our cover, when you go a little bit ahead, looks actually quite good on the Supras. We, some of our customers, of course, have been quite slow during the summer, and they have pushed those commitments into fourth and maybe even into first quarter, or maybe they have been tricky and been doing a little bit of spot deals and then been pushing our contract cargoes to a later stage. So that is correct what you say, that we had expected a little bit better earnings on the Supras.
Even though we beat the market, it's not been bad at all, it's probably because some of the contract cargoes have been pushed into fourth quarter and maybe even into first quarter. I think that also explains a little bit when you look at our cover for the Supras, it looks actually very good rates, and I think that's partly the explanation for that. Hopefully, the market is, and the market has been... Actually, the increase on the Supras has actually been a bit higher than it has been on the Handies, so that also gives an opportunity now to take even more cover at fairly, fairly good rates. The Handysize cover is a little bit less. Normally, we have quite a bit of backhaul cargos in our Handysize cover.
So actually, where we position cargo, that position the ships back into the loading positions, and therefore to bonus positions. So normally, our cover always look a little bit worse on the Handies, and then it improves when we execute the voyages. The fact is, scrubber, the scrubber earnings at the moment is not, you know, I think the spread between the high sulfur and low sulfur is about, has been around $100, maybe a little bit more. We have actually seen now, maybe driven a little bit by the conflict in Israel and other places, oil prices have gone up, and actually the spread has also gone up, especially in Singapore, where it's now $150.
That would actually be very good for the, the Supramax ships that we have, with scrubbers, for fourth quarter and onwards, if the spread could stay high, on the scrubbers. I think the last question is what about 2024? You are also well spotted that, yes, there is actually about, what is it, 4.8% delivery of new ships next year in it. At the same time, there is an expectation that scrapping will go to 1.7%, and then we are down at low, low 3%.
On top of that, the demand for minor bulk actually looks, at least to when Clarksons' numbers, actually looks like it will grow as well in the 3%. So I think there's actually a fine balance on the supply and demand for next year. I think we will benefit. We would like to benefit from some congestion around the world, and it also actually seems like a lot of things are happening in the world that probably would help us a little bit on these inefficiencies at the moment. So I'm fairly sure we'll see some of those.
Actually, we are positive about next year, maybe first quarter, a little bit seasonal, but we do see some improvement over the year.
Perfect. Thank you. Thanks so much.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Kelvin Lau. Please unmute yourself.
Hello, can you hear me?
We can hear you, Kelvin.
Oh, oh, okay. Thank you. I just want to have a question about the, your dual fuel methanol Ultramax vessels. So, because there are also some talks about, ammonia, I'm not sure which is better in terms of the, efficiency or the, effectiveness on the, your, your, new vessel, new dual fuel vessels, and also, how is the cost of operation if, if we operate a dual fuel methanol, vessel compared to, the original bunker, we are using bunker? And also, I would like to ask about the availability of the, refueling of these methanol. Is it, available in most of the ports? Yeah, these are my questions.
Yeah. Thanks, Kelvin. This could be a very long answer, but I think honestly, I would have to say in respect to methanol and ammonia, I don't really have the answer either. And so that's actually why we have this project with our partners in Japan, where we have been looking at these things, and we continue to look at it. And the project is actually developing quite nicely in respect to sort of looking at what are the solutions, initially on Ultramax vessels. But you are absolutely right, Kelvin, it's a difficult question. So I think there is advantages and disadvantages with both of them, both with methanol and ammonia.
The thing is, of course, when you ask about the cost and OpEx and so on, there's no doubt that putting on ammonia will be CapEx more expensive, and it will also be OpEx-wise, more expensive than doing methanol. And then, of course, there can be a discussion with over time, would the ammonia fuels be more suitable because there will be no CO2 in ammonia compared to methanol, where you have to capture CO2 and put it in. There's so many discussions going on, and that's why, actually, why we have our project in Japan, which of course deals with all these questions and discussions in it. And that project is progressing nicely and in the right direction, but we have not come to a conclusion yet.
One issue is actually also availability of engines, suitable engines for these ships. We could probably get a methanol engine, but an ammonia engine is probably very difficult to get, and I would probably believe very, very difficult to get on an Ultramax. Maybe you can get it on a big container ship or a big car carrier, but they're probably a little bit different on a small bulk carrier. Kelvin, it's a very good question, and I think as we progress going forward, we will be able to answer more and more of these questions because these are actually part of the project in it. You can see how the world is developing. There's actually a number of methanol ships being ordered, especially in the container segment.
There's also some ammonia-ready ships being ordered, but methanol seems to have some traction at the moment. And also, I think because the methanol fuel is probably available in the ports. I don't think green ammonia is available in any ports at the moment. I think it will take some more time before that comes. But the end solution, I think everybody agrees, it will be all of the fuels. We will need all of the fuels. We just have to figure out what ships are best for what kind of fuels. So sorry, Kelvin, I couldn't give you all the details, but
Mm.
I'm sure we'll know more as we go. Go ahead.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thanks a lot. Yeah.
If we have any more questions for today's speaker, please join the Zoom link via the blue Ask a Question button. Press the Raise Hand button and you will enter a queue. You may also type your questions in the Q&A box. I will now hand over to Peter for more text questions.
I will now read a few questions coming from the online portal. The first quesotion coming from Lion Global Investors: Regarding page number 11 in the slide, the delivery of 4.5% in 2024 seems greater than the recent few years.
Mm-hmm.
Will the bigger supply cause relatively bigger pressure on the spot market rates for the next year?
Yeah. It's a... I think 4.5%, when you look at over years, it is of course higher than what we've seen in the past, but if you look at it relatively, it's actually not a big order book compared to... As 4.5% is not, it's not a disaster in any way. And you have to remember that actually this year, the volumes or the demand picture was actually the volumes of dry cargo was actually at historically high levels. So continuous growth going forward, we will also have growth in it, and hopefully we also believe we'll have a little bit more scrapping going on during next year.
So I think actually it is a balanced, it's quite balanced, supply-demand for next year. And I think we also keep saying that we, of course, look a little bit more ahead in it. And again, if you look at 2025 and 2026, it's very hard to believe there will be much more supply on those because the yards are full, and there's not much more capacity in it. So I think we need to look at it over 2024, 2025 and 2026, and look at the average there, and then it's actually quite low.
The next question is: What do you think will be the impact of the introduction of the EU Emissions Trading System in January 2024, and how will it impact your trading in and out of the EU?
Yeah. So I think what's gonna happen is that we will all probably try to find our best ships, most fuel-efficient ships and bring them into the EU in order to limit the CO2 or the EU tax on the CO2. So but limit the CO2 emissions or the consumption of the ships. And we'll probably also start slow steaming every time we come into slow steaming even further when we come into the EU area, to limit the cost of the EU ETS in it.
I think on a global basis, when you look at it, I don't think that actually means that we will, that the world actually will be more optimized in the way we use the ships, because I think it will actually mean that you will try to push the nicer ships, the better ships into to EU. And that might not actually be the most optimal way of trading the ships, but we'll do that because that makes economic sense. I also do actually think that over time, other areas in the world will follow EU and implement the same. It makes no sense not doing it. So I think we'll probably see that also happening.
I think the U.S. is already talking about it, and I'm fairly sure other bigger commodity importer-exporters will also do the same thing, going forward.