Welcome to today's Pacific Basin 2023 interim results announcement call. I'm pleased to present Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Martin Fruergaard, and Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Michael Jorgensen. For the first part of this call, all participants will be in listen-only mode. Afterwards, there will be a question and answer session. Mr. Frigaard, please begin.
Thank you. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for attending Pacific Basin's 2023 interim results earnings call. My name is Martin Fruergaard, CEO of Pacific Basin, and I'm pleased to have our new CFO, Michael Jorgensen, with me today, who will speak later on the call. Assuming that you have already gone through the presentation, we will briefly highlight some of the key points discussed in it before we proceed with the Q&A session. Please turn to slide 3. I'm pleased to report that in the first half of 2023, we generated underlying profit of $76 million, a net profit of $85 million, and EBITDA of $189 million. This yielded a return of equity of 9% annualized, with basic earnings per share of HKD 0.129.
Our large core business generated $96 million before overheads, despite the weak freight market, while our operating activity, which includes vessels chartered in for less than 12 months, contributed $17 million, having generated a margin of 1,550 net per day over 11,000 operating days. We continue to maintain a healthy financial position with available committed liquidity of $375 million and net gearing of 7% as we continue to expand our own fleet over the period. Additionally, we have increased our list of unencumbered vessels with 65 currently unmortgaged. The board has declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.065 per share, amounting to a total of $43.7 million, which represents 51% of our net profit for the period.
This decision is consistent with our distribution policy and reflect our confidence in our strong balance sheet, despite the current uncertainties surrounding global dry bulk demand and freight rates, which continue to impact our industry. Please turn to slide 4. In the first half of the year, average market spot freight rates for Handysize and Supramaxes were $8,640 and $9,930 net per day, respectively. Despite increased dry bulk demand overall in the first half, freight rates were under considerable pressure due to the unwinding of congestion that increased effective supply. Looking ahead, we expect grain activity to increase with the onset of the East Coast, South America, and U.S. grain seasons. While China's reopening has helped drive bulk demand, additional stimulus would be needed to boost demand further. Please turn to slide 5.
Global dry bulk loading volumes grew approximately 2% year-over-year, mainly due to China reopening, which increased demand for both coal and iron ore. Minor bulk loadings decreased 0.1% in the period due to reduced loading of cement and clinkers, forest products, and aluminum. However, there was an 8% increase in bauxite loadings, primarily from Guinea, despite an export ban in Indonesia starting from June 2023. Grain loadings decreased by 3% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced grain export from Argentina caused by droughts. In the U.S. states, adverse weather condition and logistical problems led to a higher cost for transporting grain on the Mississippi River, which made U.S. grain prices uncompetitive, reducing grain export during the first half of 2023.
Despite delays in the harvest and export process, Brazil was able to export a record amount of grain. Coal loadings increased 6% year-on-year, lastly, because of the low base created by the temporary Indonesian coal export ban in January 2022 and record China imports. Iron ore loading increased 3% year-on-year due to beneficial weather conditions in both Australia and Brazil, as well as increased demand in China as economic activity increased post-COVID. Please turn to slide 6. Our core business generated average Handysize and Supramax daily TCE earnings of $13,030 and $13,700 net per day, respectively, in the first half of 2023, which is a decrease of 51% and 60% compared to the very strong first half of 2022.
For the third quarter, we have covered 82% and 92% of our committed vessel days for Handysize and Supramaxes at $9,800 and $12,700 net per day, respectively. For the second half of 2023, we currently have cover for 57% and 72% of our core vessel days for Handysize and Supramax at $10,000 and $12,770 net per day, respectively. Current forward freight agreements, commonly referred to as FFAs, for Q4, they are at $9,180 and $10,710 per day for Handysize and Supramax, respectively. Please turn to slide 7.
In the first half, both our Handysize and our Supramax delivered an exceptional performance, and we outperformed the indices by $4,390 per day and $3,717 per day, respectively. Handysize and Supramax vessels have outperformed the index over the last seven and eight quarters, respectively. The Supramax outperformance benefited from 33 scrubbers installed across our core owned fleet, with scrubbers contributing about $1,050 per day to our outperformance over the period. The current value of Supramax scrubbers benefits is approximately $610 per day. Our operating activity generated a positive margin of $1,550 net per day over 11,000 operating days. Operating days increased 20% compared to the same period last year.
Operating activity margins benefited from the redelivery of more expensive short-term time charter in vessels from previous periods. Please turn to slide 8. Our Handysize owned vessel cost has, have decreased, mainly due to lower crew repatriation costs, as COVID-related controls have been relaxed. We continue to improve our cost competitiveness with our indicative owned fleet cash breakeven level, reduced to $4,920 per day. Please turn to slide 9. Despite the increase in cost on a small number of long-term charter vessels, our blended Supramax costs remain cost competitive. We continue to maintain our cost competitiveness with our indicative owned fleet cash breakeven level, reduced to $5,010 per day. Please turn to slide 10. During the period, we continued to grow and renew our fleet.
Specifically, at the beginning of the year, we capitalized on Supramax vessels, vessel values, which softened due to market weakness, allowing us to make countercyclical purchases. Meanwhile, we continued to also focus on selling smaller, older Handysize vessels during the period. We acquired 5 Ultramax vessels, 1 Supramax vessel, and 1 Handysize vessel, with all vessels delivered into our core fleet. We sold 2 Handysize vessels over the period, with both now being delivered. We received the first of 3 Japanese-built 40,000 deadweight ton Handysize new buildings to our core fleet through long-term time charters, and expect the remaining 2 to be delivered in the second half. Including all currently agreed sales and purchases, our fleet consists of 120 old Handysize and Supramax vessels, and including chartered ships, we have over 280 vessels on the water.
We continue to progress with the design of methanol-fueled zero-emission vessels in collaboration with our two Japanese partners. We expect to be ready to contract our first generation dual-fuel zero-emission new buildings by the end of 2024, with delivery expected to be well ahead of our original 2030 target. I will now hand over to Michael, who will present the financials, and I'll be back afterwards with outlook and strategic summaries.
Thank you very much, Martin. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I'm very delighted to join Pacific Basin as its new CFO, and I'm eager to engage with the investor and media community. Without further ado, let's dive into the next slide. Please turn to slide 12 for an overview of our PNL performance. As you can see, given our lower TCE earnings, both our underlying profit and EBITDA were lower, despite decreased owned vessel and charter costs. Our G&A has decreased, mainly due to lower discretionary remuneration provisions, given our result for the period. Below underlying profit, our net profit was further improved by gains on vessel disposals and our hedging portfolio. Please turn to slide 13. Our operating cash inflow for the period was $150 million, and that is inclusive of all long and short-term charter hire payments.
This compares with $486 million in the first half of 2022. We had $43 million in proceeds from the sale of three smaller Handysize vessels and one Ultramax vessel, which we delivered in the period. CapEx spending remains well controlled. For the first half of 2023, total $210 million, of which we paid approximately $187 million for one secondhand Handysize vessel, two secondhand Supramax vessels, six secondhand Ultramax vessels, and around $22 million for dry dockings and ballast water treatment systems. We expect CapEx for 2023 to be approximately $60 million, predominantly related to dry dockings and ballast water treatment systems and excluding any vessel purchases.
We paid 174 million U.S. dollars in dividends related to the 2022 final basic and special dividend of HKD 0.26 per share, which were paid in May 2023. Our borrowings decreased due to net repayments of $38 million. Please turn to slide 14. Despite significant shareholder distribution, we continue to maintain a healthy financial position with $375 million of available committed liquidity and reduced debt while expanding our fleet. Our net borrowings now represent 7% of the net book value of our owned vessels, and as Martin previously mentioned, we have increased our list of unencumbered vessels, with 65 currently unmortgaged. Our goal going forward is to ensure that we maintain our strong available liquidity position for potential growth investments while still providing returns to our shareholders through payment of dividends.
We have a distribution policy of paying out at least 50% of annual net profits. I will now hand you back to Martin for his outlook and strategy slides.
Yeah, thank you, Michael. Please turn to slide 16. China COVID reopening policies are supporting dry bulk demand. Coal loadings to China increased over 70% on year due to energy security concerns and low hydroelectric output, despite record domestic coal production. China has continued to import coal from Australia, still relies heavily on Indonesia and Russia for its coal imports. China's minor bulk demand increased 5% over the period, with the main minor bulk, including bauxite, ore, and concentrates and forest products. Please turn to slide 18. High new building prices, uncertainty around emission regulations, and long delivery time of about 3 years, have continued to discourage any significant new ship ordering over the period.
First half 2023 new building ordering was down 18% compared to first half 2022, and the dry bulk order book is at near decade low of 7.4% of total fleet. World shipyard capacity remains limited and well below peak capacity of 10 years ago, with the majority of incremental new shipyard capacity concentrated on high-margin, non-dry bulk vessels. We continue to think that new building order will remain limited, as designs for zero-emission capable vessels are developed over time. Please turn to slide 19. In July, IMO adopted a revised and more ambitious greenhouse gas strategy with a goal for international shipping to achieve net zero emissions by or around 2050, with indicative interim checkpoints. IMO's target is therefore now aligned with our own net zero by 2050 target, to which we committed in 2021.
Initial targets will be a reduction of 20% of total emissions by 2030, and 70% reduction by 2040. These regulatory pressures are on the rise. We expect new regulations to be introduced in the future. The consequence of decarbonization regulations will result in the need for vessels to further reduce speed over time and in due course, for accelerated scrapping of as older and less efficient vessels become no longer fit for trading. The low order book and efforts to reduce carbon intensity will potentially create a shortage of vessels and provide long-term structural undersupply to the market. Please turn to slide 22. In the short term, we believe that global dry bulk demand will continue to be impacted by higher interest rates, inflation, and weaker global economic activity, with the potential for a recession in some countries.
While China's reopening has helped dry bulk demand, additional stimulus would be needed to boost demand further. These headwinds will continue to have a negative effect on dry bulk freight rates in the short term and potentially for the remainder of 2023. In the longer term, we remain optimistic about the supported fundamentals of our industry. Dry bulk demand is expected to be supported by substantial global infrastructure investments, with a focus on emerging markets such as India and ASEAN countries, as well as concern over food and energy security worldwide. Our view is that environmental regulations, both existing and upcoming, will deter excessive new vessel orders for some time and support dry bulk rates. We have a positive outlook on the future of the dry bulk market and expect to generate more sustainable earnings in the long term due to underlying demand and supply fundamentals.
We are excited about the future of dry bulk shipping, supported by a modern fleet that can meet the diverse needs of our customers. Our staff operates globally with a local presence, which we utilize to drive insight and knowledge back into our business, so we can deliver the best service and access cargo opportunities. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our 2023 interim results presentation. I will now hand over the call to our operator for Q&A.
We will now begin our Q&A session. If you have a question for today's speakers, please join the Zoom link with the Join Video Conference button. Press the Raise Hand button, and you will enter a queue. After you are announced, please unmute yourself, state your name and company, and ask your question. If you find that your question has been answered before it is your turn to speak, please press the lower hand button to leave the queue. You may also type your questions in the Q&A box. Our first question today is from Paresh Jain. Paresh, please unmute yourself and go ahead with your question.
Lovely. Thank you. Hello, Martin, and hi, Michael. Welcome on board. Can you hear me well?
Yes, we can hear you, Paresh.
Lovely. I, I, I have two, two questions, essentially, first to Martin. I mean, how, how do you see this second-hand vessel market at the moment? Shall we expect that your intensity in terms of acquiring the right type of vessels that you started the start of the year will continue going into the second half? i.e., is, is, is there a CapEx target that we shall work around for the remainder of the year? Secondly, in terms of the operating cost, is it, is it fair to assume that we have found the new normal in the first half? If that's the case, then at, at your current rate, is it fair to assume that probably the second half profitability will be more around breakeven than anything else? Thank you.
Yes. I guess the first question is about the CapEx and the development in the secondhand prices, if I understood it right, Paresh Jain.
Yes.
I think what we've seen actually is that, you know, the, in the first half, that actually in the beginning of the year, there was a dip in the prices, and that's actually when we bought, and then we saw increases in the prices. If you look at Clarksons numbers, you know, I think we said 5% increase over the first half year in it. Of course, with the spot market at the moment, you know, we, we of course sit and look a little bit at the secondhand prices to see how that is developing. You can say a modern, a modern, nice ship is probably also held up a little bit by the replacement cost. You know, the new building prices are still actually very, very, actually historic high.
For a modern ship, one thing is the spot market, another thing is what is the replacement cost at the shipyards? We are still buyers of ships. We have bought early this year, and probably at the moment we sit and look a little bit at the market and wait for if there's some good opportunities comes along during the year.
Then the second question was about the operating cost.
I think as, as we said, our operating cost is, is, we, we feel they are under control, and, and you can say we are back to, to levels, we saw before the COVID. Of course, during COVID, there was some increased, some pressure on, on, on some of.
... OpEx costs. We have sort of a, we are on the way back to normal. You, as we say, our cost break-even is, I would say, industry low. We are in a very good position on that. Then you can say with respect to the market and what's the next six months gonna do, you know, I think, of course, we look at the FFA, and as we say, that, you know, the FFA looks actually like it's. There is some expectations in the market that the rates will come up from where.
They are now. I think it's of course some seasonal, which is quite normal in our market. There is some seasonal changes, normally third and fourth quarter is stronger than the summer market. We are actually in that sense positive about the market, that there will be some seasonal changes to it.
One final question, and I'll get back into the queue. Have you seen any short-term impact of the Black Sea grain trade, especially with Russia pulling out of the contract, or it's more or less a non-event?
Yeah, you know, it, it's a, I, you know, I think it would've been better if we don't have a conflict in Ukraine. I think that would be, in many ways for everybody, but also for our market, would probably be better. I think the export out of Ukraine was always already down quite a bit. I think it's down to 1.5 million tons a month. Of course, it has an impact, but I think that 1.5 million tons can probably be replaced somewhere else, and when that is done, then actually I would say it's a ton-mile. You know, I don't think it has any major impact on our business at the moment.
Of course, you can say they were plus 5 million tons a month before the invasion, before the war, and of course, I'm not sure all of that has been replaced from other places in it. We, you know, it would be nice if we could get back to 1 on that time, but I don't think the last part is not, that is not gonna make a big difference at the moment.
Lovely. Thank you, Jens. I'll get back into the queue. Thank you.
Thank you, Paresh.
The next question comes from online. Can you provide your outlook on the minor bulk market in the second half? What are the expected drivers?
Yeah, I, I think we-- first of all, I think it's important to remember that actually, you know, the, the volumes and demand for first half has actually been quite stable for the dry cargo, for the minor bulk, segments. Also that China has come back after COVID, has actually also been quite supportive for us. What's gonna drive it going forward is, of course, you know, especially China, of course, that, that we see some of the subsidies that they're talking about, that they actually come into play, and, and that, that actually creates more activity around infrastructure and also about the, the, the property market in, in China. That is, of course, also what has been talked about, and of course, also what we, we hope will happen.
Then I, and then I also think it would be helpful if, if the U.S. and, and Europe, of course, can come over the inflation pressure, and, and hopefully we can see interest rate coming down again, so we see further investments in, in some of the projects that we have seen. In, in respect to minor bulk, we're also quite optimistic in the sense of, of the, the, the green transition and the need for, for green fuels. We also think that will actually drive a minor bulk demand for cement and steel and, and different minerals used in windmills and solar power. And then hopefully also in second half, but probably may- maybe a little bit more on the longer term for those things.
The next question coming from the online: What is management's rationale for the 50% dividend payout, down from 70% last year?
I think, I think last year was a, a very exceptional year. Of course, I think our, our dividend at that time was, was, was also an exceptional year. I think we're now more back to, to a normal earning, and I think the board have also decided that looking at our strong balance sheet and good liquidity and so on, then that, that, that paying actually 51% here in first half is, was, was, was prudent. That's why, we actually just back to our distribution policy.
Right. The next question: When do you expect to see increased scrapping, given current rates in the market today?
Well, I think we already see increased scrapping. It's still at a very low level, but it's clear if the current market continues, I think people who has older ships that is due for dry dock, they would probably reconsider a little bit. We're still in a market where the outlook, the players or everybody's outlook for the market is actually quite positive. Maybe not for the short term, but for the longer term. I think a lot of people still like to invest in the ships to keep them going. Have to remember that the order book is historically low. The new ordering is down every half year.
So we are, in that sense, very positive about the supply-demand fundamentals going forward, and I think that actually impacts people when they sit and look at the decision if to take the ship to dry dock or send it to recycling. We have seen a little bit more activity in, in the, in the, in the scrapping, but, but, yeah, but I think there's potential for more. Also, please remember that you can probably postpone, you can go through one dry dock and postpone your scrapping for one dry docking cycle, which is about 2.5 years, but when you have to do it again, it's gonna be very difficult.
We are actually building up a fairly large pool of scrapping candidates, which at a certain stage, of course, has to, has to go. I think that's also actually a positive fundamental for the market.
Another question coming: Can you give us an update on your zero-emission vessel projects, and when you expect to order, and when will the market? Further to this, how long will these take to be built, and when do you expect the market and what cost to build these?
Yeah. First of all, our, our project with the, with the Mitsui and NSY is, is progressing as planned, and, and we have now worked for more than a year with the, with the, with our partners, and we continue, of course, to develop the design. Of course, try to make sure that the entire ship is zero-emission vessel, in it. That's a project that is still ongoing. We are not ready at the moment to, to, to, to place an order, but, but the project is moving forward as, as, as per plans, and, and all partners are active in, in, in the project.
I think we have said here in the presentation, we also said it, that realistically, we should be able to order next year, and of course, it's all subject to market and price and so on. I think if you order now, if you'll just order a normal ship today, you will probably get delivery, if you're lucky, in 2026. I think if we next year order any ship, but also a zero-emission ship, it will probably be 2027 and maybe even 2028. There's no way at the moment that you can get early delivery, and that's nothing to do with the order for dry cargo ships, but that is all, all other ships being ordered at the moment.
I think at the moment, there's a lot of tech that's being, being ordered at the yards, so the yards are actually quite full. The project is, is, is moving forward. Price and these things is still a little bit difficult to, to talk about in it, but, but I think it's fair to say that, that, that building a ship today at the yards is at historically high prices. It's, it's a, you know, if you just disregard the zero-emission part of it, but just a normal ship, whatever ship it is, the, the asset, the prices at the yards are, are high. That's also why I think people are a little bit more worried about ordering new ships in the dry cargo segment.
As a reminder, To ask a question from the Zoom link, please press, please, please press the Raise Hand button, and you will enter a queue. After I've called on you to unmute yourself, please state your name and company and ask your question. We currently have no other questions from the Zoom link.
A question coming from online: Can you advise on CapEx forecast for 2023, and given the high secondhand prices, what is management's focus on returning cash to shareholders?
Yeah, I think, I can reply a little bit on our CapEx. Our CapEx for 2023, we expect CapEx to be $60 million, for the ones that are not confirmed yet, ship sales and so on. If, if there's more, you can say, purchase of ships, that will of course, increase our CapEx program, but we have not committed any CapEx right now for second half. So that's our best view of right now. I think also for the year overall, 2023, we will stick to the dividend policy that we have communicated earlier.
A second question coming: Besides China, are there any other drivers that you foresee to improve the rates in the second half, given where we are in the market today? Does Pacific Basin use biofuels on any of the vessels currently, and where would you progress in terms of sourcing these biofuels?
Yeah, if we, if we take the last one, the biofuels, yes, we have. We have tested and completed it, you know, completed a test. We have run biofuel on one of our ships, and we know we are capable of doing so. It's not something that we have, we do have no major commitment into that, but of course, it's something we evaluate also in respect to the EU ETS that is starting next year. Of course, it's something that we constantly evaluate to see if that's the right way forward in it. The second question was?
In terms of where the drivers are in the market besides China.
I, I think first of all, I think we think China, of course, is, is probably where we see the, the biggest opportunity and upside. Remember, China is still 40% of the dry bulk market. And, and therefore we, we, you know, we see them coming back after COVID. I think we all had expected it will go faster. I think the learning is it just takes a little bit more time. Also, also, with the subsidies, it's not something you just do overnight. You know, all the signals that we hear from China, also from the government, is, of course, that they will progress with those things. In that sense, we are, we are quite positive about that part.
on the other hand, I would also say that, uh, Southeast Asia, India, these countries actually still continue to have good growth and, and good activity level. that has actually benefited us on the minor bulk side. And I would also say that the U.S., even though of course, there is an attempt to try to sort of put the brakes on the economy and, and get the inflation down, they are still quite active. And, uh, things like cement and clinkers and construction material actually still continues to flow quite actively into, to the U.S. But it's true, I think that the biggest, the biggest, um, upside drivers should be China. And let's also see how things are landed in the U.S. and, and, and Europe.
I also think there is some upside on that, but if that impact us here in second half, let's see. Hopefully we are getting to an end of the interest rate increases and maybe see some improvement. We have seen that the stock market is improving around the world, so I guess that's an indicator of that things are maybe about to turn.
All right, we have another question from Paresh Jain. Paresh, please, unmute yourself and go ahead with your question.
Sure. Martin, I, I have two questions, if I may. First of all, can you remind us what's the current scrubber premium your scrubber-fitted vessels are enjoying? With, with the current freight rate gravitating towards a free end cost, are you saying that the scrubber-fitted Supra will invariably put pressure on a, on a scrubber-fitted Handysize vessels, given the price differential? My second question is that, has your team done some on the back of the envelope calculation of potential impact of EU ETS next year and FuelEU the year after? Thank you.
I'm not sure I got the full question on the scrubbers, but I'll just try. I think, as we also said, first half, the scrubbers have 33 ships that we have scrubbers on, they have contributed with $1,050 on average for all our all our ultra or super ultra maxes, and I think that's 50 ships.
If you go look at how much do they contribute at the moment, they will contribute around $640 per day. Not just for the ships with scrubbers, but for the entire, our entire Supramax, Ultramax fleet, divided over them. You can say that if you go in and look at a ship with a scrubber, it's probably around $1,000, or a little bit less at the moment. You can say the spread is, I wouldn't say low, but it's, it's lower than it was a year ago. The second question was? Yeah, EU ETS. Yes. Yes, we are, of course, we have already- we're already doing business for next year into Europe.
In that respect, we are absolutely ready to do that, and we're already doing the calculations and setting ourselves up to buy these ETS. That's already been done. The deals we have done already for next year into Europe includes the ETS in it. We're about to set ourselves up. It's, I wouldn't say, well, maybe it's wrong to say it's complicated, but it takes a little bit of time to get the setup right practically in Europe. We are doing that, and we are absolutely ready for next year to do that. I would say now EU starts, you know, U.S. has also start talking about and about having similar things.
It's, I wouldn't say it's, it's, it's actually complicating things somewhat. On, on the other hand, I think we think it's, it's good that we get started getting these, these rules in, but it does actually complicate things, somewhat. It, it, it does require a little bit of resources to get those things right.
Can, can you share what percentage of your, I don't know, revenue day or capacity of the fleet spend time in your water on a year basis?
I don't remember the exact number. It was in the board material, but on the same mission vessel. I think it's less than 10%, I think, that we
We, we'll get you that, but it's not a, it's not a, it's not a major thing. You know, you know, our trading pattern...
is quite diverse around the world. I think it's less than 10% maybe, you know, out of the year. We'll get the right number.
Yeah. No, that, that's great. I'll probably get in touch with Peter. Yeah. Thank you, Martin, and have a lovely day.
Thank you very much.
The next question coming from the online: Looking further into your cover in the second half, how are you utilizing cover in this low rate environment?
How we use the cover in a. You know, I think, of course, cover in a, in a, in a, in a low market, you can say for the first half, part of the success is, of course, that we had good cover coming into the market. We, of course, continue to have very good cover for, for, for second half. However, we, of course, still have some open days, also because we can see that there is some expectations that the market will improve by at least by fourth quarter. I think with, with our fleet and, and size and so on, we have been able to optimize and improve the results.
You can say when you look at our contract cover, that's the starting point, and hopefully, as we have done again and again, we are able to optimize and, you know, get a little bit more out of the business than is in the numbers. That's how we use it, and of course, we have taken some cover, and as we could see, probably the market wouldn't recover as quickly as we originally had expected. I hope that answered that question.
Another question coming from the online systems. What is the impact that Sorry. What is the impact that IMO's new zero emissions by 2050 mean to vessel speeds, scrapping, and supply going forward?
That is a, as we said, we already had our own target was zero by 2050. I think it's a very positive thing that IMO comes out and say, now it's zero by 2050. Of course, that is a strengthening of the rule so that the demand is becoming bigger. We still have to see how IMO will enforce these rules, which I think we will know in 2025 in it. There's no doubt that, depending on how they're gonna enforce it, there's no doubt that this will have an impact on the speed of the ships. We can already see that, you know, if you look from now to 2030, we will have to reduce the speed of the ships.
Already doing it because we have an environment with quite high oil prices and, you know, low market, so we are already slow steaming. I think that that has to continue because with the... as the rules look at the moment, and what it absolutely will do within the next three, four years, is that we, for five years, is that we are not able to increase the speed because of the rules. I think after 2030, as the rules are now, we'll definitely see a lower speeds, low, yeah, reduction of the speed of the ships, and that will take supply away, and it will make it very difficult for some of the ships who are, you know, older and less efficient. It will be very difficult for them to keep trading.
I think that we are actually quite positive about IMO and how they have, you know, changed the rules, and we think it's absolutely correct that we need to be zero by 2050. I think the pressure is on them on how they're gonna enforce the rules, so that we all understand exactly how to deal with that. We look forward to that by 2025.
We have another question from Paresh Jain. Paresh, please go ahead. Unmute yourself and ask your question. Apologies. It looks like Paresh has dropped off the call. For anyone else, if you have a question, please use the Raise Hand button at the bottom of your Zoom window and enter the queue, and we'll call upon you to ask your question. It looks like we have no other questions for this time. I will now begin closing remarks. Please go ahead, Mr. Martin, for Martin Fruergaard.
Thank you. Yeah, I'd like to thank you again for joining us today and for your continued support of Pacific Basin. If you have any further questions, please contact Peter Bark from our investor relations department. Thank you and goodbye.