Good morning, and welcome to the Glanbia half year 2023 analyst results call, which is hosted by Siobhán Talbot, Group Managing Director, and Mark Garvey, Group Finance Director. During today's call, the directors may make forward-looking statements. These statements have been made by the directors in good faith, based on the information available to them up to the time of their approval of the Glanbia half year 2023 interim financial statements and analyst presentation.
Due to inherent uncertainties, including both economic and business risk factors underlying such statements, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. The directors undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made on today's call, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I'm now handing the call over to Siobhán Talbot, Group Managing Director, Glanbia plc.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Glanbia half year 2023 results call and presentation. On today's call, I'll provide a summary of our performance for the first half of the year. I'm joined by my colleague, Mark Garvey, who will cover the financial results. At the end of the presentation, we'll turn the call over to yourselves for questions. Overall, I'm pleased to report that half year 2023 performance for the group was ahead of our expectations, delivering 6.6% growth, constant currency in adjusted earnings per share for the period.
This result, together with an approved outlook for the second half of the year, is resulting in an upgrade in full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance from the prior 7% to 11% growth to 12% to 15% growth, all constant currency.
This is facilitating also a 10% increase in our interim dividend. The driver of the half year, indeed, full year 2023 results outlook is a stronger than expected margin progression in GPN, and I'll speak further to that shortly. The overall financial position of the group remains very strong, with over 100% cash conversion in the rolling 12-month period to June, and a debt EBITDA ratio at the end of the period of less than one times. We've used our strong financial position to return over $64 million to shareholders in the period via buybacks.
Strategically, Glanbia is very much on track. Our better nutrition brands and ingredient solutions increasingly resonate with customers and consumers. Our largest brand, Optimum Nutrition, reached the annualized $1 billion milestone in the period and continues to see strong consumption growth globally.
I'll speak again to it shortly, but in the US, the most recent 12-week consumption growth was 14.3%, and for the last 52-week, consumption growth over 30%. In GN Nutritional Solutions, we continue to broaden our technologies across our core protein and premix solutions, and across the whole group, investment continues in key strategic enablers, talent, marketing, IT investment, and innovation. We have previously spoken to a desire to continue to simplify and focus our overall business portfolio. In Glanbia, we now have four
clear engines for growth. In GPN, there is a very clear focus on the ON brand. There's a growing position in the lifestyle nutrition categories. In Nutritional Solutions, we will continue to leverage and build our global leadership positions in premixed vits and mins and protein solutions. We have further simplified our joint venture model.
In Europe, we completed the sale of our interest in the mozzarella cheese business, Glanbia Cheese, to our partner, Leprino Foods. Our only remaining joint venture interest now is in US cheese and whey. We're very much aligned with the four growth pillars I just noted, we have a really unique and very robust business model.
Effective for full year 2024, we will further simplify the reporting of this business through a change in our commercial arrangements with our partners, and that will essentially simplify our group reporting and better clarify the underlying margin structure of both Glanbia Nutritionals and indeed the group. That will lift group margins by over 300 basis points on a full year basis.
Turning then to revenue for the half, very much broadly in line with our expectations in terms of volume within GPN, ON, our largest brand, continued its positive volume momentum at the period, and we did see a significantly improving volume trajectory in Nutritional Solutions in second quarter over first quarter. I'll speak more to that later.
On pricing, the higher pricing sustained in GPN in the period is delivering double-digit pricing growth, and actually, the pricing decline that you're seeing in Glanbia Nutritionals, in both Nutritional Solutions and cheese, was all a function of lower dairy market pricing. As we will speak to later, despite the lower revenue in the first half, we had really good margin progression across all of the group, a trend that we expect to sustain over the full year. Turning then to GPN.
Strong first half results with branded like-for-like revenues growing 3.7%. Year-on-year earnings up over 20%. As I said earlier, pricing was a key driver of growth. We have sustained the pricing benefits of the 2022 pricing actions and delivered pricing growth of almost 11%. We have increased our brand investment in the period. This has supported volume progression in the key brands despite that pricing action.
Consumption continues to be good in the Performance N utrition, and healthy lifestyle portfolios. While we have seen some elasticity, this continues to be below our earlier expectations. As I referenced earlier, globally, ON continued the growth momentum, growing over 16% in the first half. Volume was up 2.6% and pricing, 13.6%.
In fact, we expect the volume momentum of ON to improve further as we go through the second half of the year. In terms of the branded volume decline of 7.2%, that was largely driven by SlimFast, and I'll come back to that again shortly. We're particularly pleased with the margin progression in GPN, where we delivered 12.1% margin on the first half, and that was despite higher year-on-year cost of goods sold and post-increased brand investment.
The structural margin in GPN continues to be underpinned by the transformation program completed over the past number of years, and a strong focus on both revenue growth management initiatives and operating initiatives is delivering results.
With a solid base now in half one, we expect in half two to build on the work we've been doing so far, with an improving cost of goods position, particularly for dairy. Ultimately, the focus in GPN on margin enhancement is enabling both further increased brand investment and a higher net margin delivery for full year 2023.
As a result of our increasing confidence in sustaining that margin progression, we are today upgrading our GPN margin guidance for full year 2023 by a further 100 basis points from between 12.5% and 13.5%, to now between 13.5% and 14.5%. Parsing the 3.7% branded revenue growth into various segments a little, revenue in Americas was broadly in line with the prior year.
This arose as we had growth in the performance and lifestyle, That was offset by the continued decline of SlimFast. We had good growth across key international regions, driven by that global momentum of ON. Our brand portfolio continues to grow across all key channels. The decline you're seeing in the distributor channel here is very much a conscious decision to service some international markets more directly through other channels. Our largest format, powders, continues to grow strongly.
The product and value proposition of powders continues to resonate very strongly with consumers, The growth of brands such as Optimum Nutrition and Isopure, will, we believe, continue to drive sustained growth for the group. As you might expect, the decline in ready-to-eat and ready-to-drink arose because of SlimFast.
For full year 2023, we currently expect GPN revenue growth to be in the lower end of the previously guided range of 5% to 7%, as that strength that we're seeing in performance and healthy lifestyle, healthy lifestyle, will be offset by the decline in weight management. Turning to our largest brand. As you would expect, given its scale and most importantly, its potential, Optimum Nutrition is our clear priority brand. It is the brand that has and will receive the greatest proportion of resources and investment.
It's 60% of our portfolio, it grew by 45% in the three years to 2022, and we built on that again in the first half of this year with a further 16% growth. Our US consumption continues to be strong, as I referenced earlier, with the last 12 weeks over 14%.
We're progressing all aspects of the brand's playbook that we spoke to you about at our recent investor event in London, with our focused approach across broadening our consumer reach, developing our inspiring creative with the More of You in You campaign, innovating across product and format, and increasing our marketing investment. All of that is driving incremental distribution and individual velocities.
As you know, Optimum Nutrition is anchored both in protein and energy, and the powder format has a really strong value proposition, and no doubt that is resonating with consumers and will continue to drive our brand momentum. Representing 18% of our GPN portfolio, our lifestyle brands continue to gain momentum, and that is our brands of Isopure, Think!, and Amazing Grass.
We had strong growth in second quarter, in particular for Isopure, where increased investment and the strength of the pure positioning of that brand is driving distribution gains. We have further innovation across flavors planned for a number of our brands in the second half of the year. We expect good momentum to continue for the rest of 2023. Our recent US consumption for the last 12 weeks, again, continuing momentum at 11.7%.
The SlimFast brand is now 11% of the GPN global revenue. It continues to be challenged by the headwinds in the overall diet category. The brand saw a like-for-like revenue decline of 31% in the quarter, with our consumption in the 12 weeks to July declining by 33%.
Despite brand investment and indeed, retailer support for the brand refresh, the diet category and the SlimFast brand has not regained the anticipated momentum. As a result, some key US retailers are reducing category shelf space in the short term, and this will reduce distribution for SlimFast into next year. Undoubtedly, weight management remains a key focus for consumers in the US, and given this, we will navigate the current category dynamics by refocusing our efforts and rebasing our investment back to those core meal replacement, ready-to-drinks, and powder shakes.
Turning to Glanbia Nutritionals. The performance of Glanbia Nutritionals across both Nutritional Solutions and US Cheese, again, was as expected for the first half. Lower revenue was a function of lower market pricing in US Cheese and lower volumes in Nutritional Solutions, a trend that improved on volumes as we moved through the period.
Earnings were back 7% overall, with good margin focus driving the year-on-year margin improvement. As I noted earlier, we plan to simplify our reporting for the joint ventures from 2024. From that date, Glanbia Nutritionals will reflect only commission on sales on behalf of the joint ventures.
There's no material change to our EBITA, and this is expected to increase the Nutritional Solutions' EBITA margins by in around 150 to 200 basis points, and our US Cheese margins probably around 200 to 300 basis points higher than we currently report. We believe again that this 24 change will better reflect the underlying margin structure of Glanbia Nutritionals and the group.
In terms of Nutritional Solutions, looking at that part of the business, revenue decreased by 15.2%, pricing was down 4.8%, with positive pricing and premix offset by the declining dairy protein market pricing. Volumes were down 10.4%. While the trend of customers rebalancing their supply chains continued in second quarter, this was substantially improved over first quarter.
Consistent with our comments noted with our first quarter results, this trend was mainly a feature for us with our premix business, with the protein business quite stable in the period. Our margins grew 70 basis points, and for the full year, we expect margins to improve from 2022 levels to be between 12% and 13%.
This is going to be driven by the improved mix of value-added solutions, operating efficiencies, and indeed, the mathematical accretion that arises from that lower dairy market pricing. As I said, with our first quarter results, we saw customers in our protein business reduce inventory in the second half of 2022, and in first quarter, this trend really emerged in our premix business. A key strength of Nutritional Solutions continues to be its strong relationships with our customers, and there's been no change to our customer base in the first half.
Essentially, our customers are telling us that easing supply chain constraints are allowing them to be more comfortable with reduced inventories, with an expectation that their offtakes from ourselves will normalize as we move through this year. With our customers, we continue to monitor the underlying consumer demand trends, which are largely robust across our key categories.
We've seen this trend play out, firstly, in our proteins business, where we returned to volume growth in the second quarter. It is, of course, impossible to be absolutely prescriptive on the timing of volume offtakes, but we have seen a significantly improving year-on-year volume trend in second quarter at negative 3.8% relative to the first quarter negative 17.4%. We expect this to continue into the second half of the year, particularly for proteins, driving our current full year outlook for Nutritional Solutions of a mid-single-digit decline.
As you know, our US Cheese business operates a very robust pass-through model on pricing, which really protects our earnings from changes in market pricing. Our main focus on this business is cash earnings, and that focus delivered a strong performance in the period, which with an 18.6% increase in EBITA. The decline in revenue is, as you would expect, just reflecting your lower US cheese market pricing over the half year. With that, I'll hand to Mark for the financials.
Thanks, Siobhán, and good morning to everyone on the call. Here you can see the group's income statement for the half year, and I'd like to remind everyone, we are now presenting our financial statements in US dollars. Wholly owned revenues were $2.8 billion, down 10% constant currency, as growth in GPN revenue was offset by a revenue decline in Glanbia Nutritionals, where customer supply chain rebalancing and lower dairy market pricing led to reduced revenues.
Wholly owned EBITA before exceptional gains was $198.6 million, up 6.1% constant currency in last year, as a result of EBITA growth and performance nutrition and US Cheese being somewhat offset by a decline in Nutritional Solutions, as supply chain rebalancing was a factor during the first half, albeit with improving trends in the second quarter.
Wholly owned margins were 7.2%, an increase of 110 basis points, as margins progressed in both GPN and GN. Performance nutrition margins improved to 12.1%, primarily as a result of pricing taken during 2022. Net finance costs were $7 billion compared to $10.6 billion in the prior year, reflecting strong cash flow and lower average debt during the period compared to prior year. For the full year, net finance costs are expected to be in the range of $16 to 18 million.
The group share of joint ventures, profit after tax for continuing operations was $6.5 billion compared to $12.5 billion for the same period last year, in line with our expectations, and reduced primarily due to the sale of the group's interest in the U.K. and Ireland Glanbia Cheese joint ventures during the period. The effective tax rate for the half year was 14%, and for the full year, the effective tax rate is expected to be between 13.5% and 14.5%. Adjusted earnings per share for continuing operations were $0.6078, up 6.6% on a constant currency basis compared to the same period in 2022.
Basic earnings per share, post-exceptional items for continuing operations were EUR 0.719 compared to EUR 0.504 last year, reflecting operating performance and a net exceptional gain on the disposal of our interest in the Glanbia Cheese joint ventures. There were no discontinued operations in the period. During the first half, the group completed the sale of the Glanbia Cheese joint ventures for initial proceeds of EUR 178.9 million, which include the repayment of shareholder loans.
These joint ventures were classified as held for sale in February, so the results of these businesses have not been included in the group's results for most of the first half. Aseptic Solutions was also divested, with proceeds of $11.2 million received for the transaction.
These transactions, net of related costs, resulted in a net exceptional gain of $57.8 billion in the period. The group had strong operating cash flow during the period, as the working capital headwinds experienced in the first half last year have now mostly reversed. The rolling 12-month EBITDA cash conversion is strong at 100% for the end of June, and we are confident in the conversion of over 80% for the full year.
Net debt at the end of the half year was $451 million, compared to $676 million last year, and the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was approximately 1 times, compared to 1.7 times at half year 2022, and as well as within targeted levels.
The group has significant borrowing capacity and currently has $1.3 billion in committed facilities with a weighted average maturity of 5.2 years. During the first half, the group incurred $27 million of strategic capital expenditure, primarily on additional manufacturing, automation and GPN, protein extrusion capacity, Nutritional Solutions, and IT implementations across the group. For the full year, we expect strategic and maintenance capital expenditure to be between $75 billion and $85 billion.
Turning to shareholder returns, today, we announced that the interim dividend is to be increased by 10% to EUR 0.1422 a share. For the full year, the group will continue to target a dividend payout ratio of between 25% and 35% of adjusted earnings per share. The group continues to execute a EUR 100 million share buyback program announced in March and extended in May.
During the first half, EUR 64.5 million have been utilized of this buyback program, purchasing 4.76 billion shares at an average price of EUR 13.55. Group continues to look at acquisition opportunities, focused primarily in Nutritional Solutions business.
The most recent acquisition, Sterling Technology, in the dairy bioactive space, has performed well, and in recent weeks, the group paid an additional $27 million earnout payment as a result of this strong performance, bringing total proceeds for Sterling Technology to $87 million. The group has a strong joint venture model in the US, with large cheese and whey operations in New Mexico and Michigan.
Following the most recent commissioning of the Michigan facility on time and on budget during the COVID pandemic, we have, with our joint venture partners, decided to amend our commercial agreement, which will simplify group reporting from 2024. As a result of this change, from 2024, Glanbia Nutritionals will act as agents for the joint venture and consequently will recognize only the commissions earned on the sale of joint venture products.
We will no longer gross up revenues and corresponding cost of sales of the joint venture products. There will be no change in day-to-day operations, and there will be no material change in the group from Glanbia Nutritionals' EBITA.
Detailed pro forma information for 2023 will be provided with the 2023 results, and for illustrative purposes, depending on dairy markets, this change will result in group and Glanbia Nutritionals' revenues being lower by approximately $2 billion, and group EBITA margins consequently will be higher by over 300 basis points from current levels.
There will be no material change to Glanbia Nutritionals' dollar EBITA, with again, subject to dairy market pricing, Nutritional Solutions' EBITA margins expected to be between 150 to 200 basis points higher, and US cheese EBITA margins expected to be 200 to 300 basis points higher than currently reported. We believe that this change will be which will be effective in 2024, will simplify the presentation and underlying performance of the group and facilitate easier comparisons with our peers.
Now, I would like to update you on the elements of guidance for the full year. Firstly, for GPN, we now expect like-for-like revenue growth to be at the lower end of the 5% to 7% range for the year. While we expect good revenue growth in sports, nutrition, and lifestyle, we expect this to be somewhat offset by lower revenues in weight management.
On Nutritional Solutions, we have discussed the supply chain rebalancing trends we have seen, and you can see the sequential improvement made in the second quarter. We expect this improvement to continue in the second half, and for the full year, volumes are expected to be mid-single digit lower than prior year.
Turning to GPN EBITA margins, we now have good visibility on whey costs for the remainder of the year, which, as we have said previously, will lead to improved margins in the second half. As a result, we're now able to upgrade our expected GPN EBITA margin expectations to be between 13.5% and 14.5% for the full year.
On GN Nutritional Solutions, our EBITA margin guidance is unchanged, and we expect margins to be between 12% and 13% for the full year. Based on the performance year to date, we expect a strong cash flow for the year, and operating cash flow conversion is expected to be over 80% for the full year, and return on capital employed will be within our target range of between 10% and 13% for the year.
Therefore, we are pleased to upgrade our adjusted earnings per share growth guidance from 7% to 11% to 12% to 15% for the full year, primarily based on GPN expected performance for the remainder of the year. With that, let me hand it back to Siobhán.
Thanks, Mark. Overall, our category trends for Glanbia remain very positive. As I said earlier, our strategy and structure is now simplified and very much aligned to maximize our growth opportunities. Our better nutrition agenda across four complementary growth pillars is really clear. In GPN, we will drive the global scale and reach of Optimum Nutrition, driving beyond $1 billion, investing in that global reach and consumer connectivity of the brand. We will broaden and deepen the availability of our lifestyle nutrition brands in North America, and we will stabilize SlimFast.
Similarly, in Nutritional Solutions, we will build on the core strengths and increasing capabilities of our two growth pillars of custom premix and protein solutions. We will continue to extend our capability, both organically and through M&A, and we will leverage our scalable operating models.
Of course, we will continue to drive financial performance. As Mark has just outlined, in 2023, we'll improve our margins across the group and deliver that upgraded guidance of between 12% and 15% adjusted EPS growth. We'll deliver strong cash conversion, and that strong balance sheet will set us up well for sustained growth momentum into the future.
Finally, it would, of course, be quite remiss of me not to comment on some other announcements made today. It is, as you can imagine, somewhat a bittersweet occasion for myself as I plan my retirement at the end of the year. It's been an enormous honor and privilege for me to be part of this incredible Glanbia team for over 30 years, CEO for the last 10.
It has been such an exciting journey to date, and I believe that the group is in great shape to capture the opportunities that lie ahead. We have massive depth of experience and passion for Glanbia across my own executive team, and indeed, all the Glanbia team. I'm truly delighted that we have a very strong internal successor to the CEO role in Hugh, who will take over in January. No doubt you will hear from me again before the end of the year, as we close out 2023 and move to the transition phase. For now, as always, many thanks for your time, and Mark and I will take any questions you have.
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question today, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad now to enter the queue. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your handset is unmuted locally. Press star followed by one to ask a question today. The first question comes from Cathal Kenny from Davy Research. Cathal, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, all. Firstly, Siobhán, congrats on a great career, and just want to wish you and your family the best as you embark on the next chapter. Two questions from me. Firstly, on ON. Siobhán, in your prepared remarks, you flagged an expectation of improving volume growth through the second half. I guess, what gives you that confidence as, as we sit at the start of third quarter this morning?
Secondly, in light of falling COGS, and this is a question in relation to the performance nutrition category, how are you thinking about promotional intensity around the category and absolute pricing as we look into the next six months? Thank you.
Thanks, Cathal, and, and thanks for your best wishes. On ON, I suppose the first thing to say is that we're really, really pleased with the momentum of the brand. It is really. It is our flagship brand, as you know. We've hit that milestone of the $1 billion, and as Hugh and the team outlined so well at the recent investor event in London, we're very positive about the future opportunity. There can sometimes be ebbs and flows in shipments one quarter to the other.
As we look at the trajectory for the rest of the year and the distribution gains that we're getting, we're quite confident at this point in time that we would hit that mid-single digit volume growth for the full year overall for the Optimum Nutrition volume, as we close out 2023. Obviously, the pricing dynamic will move.
We'll start to lap the pricing as we move forward, but we would expect to see a really good continued momentum for that brand. Your question on promotion, very valid. Not seeing anything dramatically different to the normal. There will always be some promotional activity, as you know, and obviously, COGS are coming down, as you rightly say. At this point in time, I think it is steady as she goes, seeing the normal rhythms apply, and obviously, that is leading to very nice margin progression for us as we move through the second half.
I guess the great thing to say to all of you on the call is that the brands that are doing really well, like Optimum and Isopure, are our best performing from a margin perspective brands, which gives us confidence for 2023.
Just a quick follow-up on that, Siobhán. Just in terms of your guide and margin, are you factoring in an increase in marketing investments or promotional intensity into that margin guide, GPN?
Yes. Yes. Probably, you know, for the full year, it could be up to 200 basis points. Yeah, we are.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Rashad Kawan from Morgan Stanley. Rashad, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, Siobhán, Mark, and Liam. Thanks for taking my questions. Siobhán, congrats on a fantastic career again, and wish you all the best going forward. A couple from me, please. On GPN, you upgraded your guide for margins, which I think implies second half margins in the 15% to 17% range. I guess, how should we think about the longer-term margin profile or kind of the right run rate for GPN margins going forward from here? How much does that promotional environment matter as you think about the longer-term range?
My second question, you talked about redirecting promotional spend away from SlimFast, given the challenges in the category. What are your expectations now for the brand as you sit here today for the rest of the year? To the extent, you know, the category continues to be challenging, would you consider divesting that brand? Thank you very much.
Rashad, I, I'll take the margin question. Look, we're very pleased with where the progression we're seeing this year on margin, and you are right, that does apply to the second half. We'll have a strong margin. Obviously, that is helped by the fact that we've got some lower COGS in there. As Siobhán said, we're also investing behind marketing.
The, the exit rate for the year actually on our margin will look quite good. I would say to you, and back to Cathal's question, too, we all have to keep a close eye in terms of how the market, market will develop in terms of promotional activity as we get towards the end of the year and into next year.
We're very pleased with the exit rate we'll have in terms of margin, and I think as we come back to the beginning of next year, we can update you in terms of where we believe structurally we are, but clearly the direction is positive right now.
Thanks, Rashad, indeed for, for your comments. In relation to SlimFast, you know, there's no doubt that there is some disappointment across all of us as a team in terms of where SlimFast is sitting. I think it's fair to say that the refresh was well executed by the team, well supported, frankly, just hasn't got the traction we would have hoped. It can happen maybe in the weight management sometimes, I think particularly with the category going through the current challenges.
I think if you stand over it all, where we see 2023 ending, in truth, is probably what you're seeing in the first half being repeated for the second half. You're probably going to be in that 30% decline for the full year. Our focus now, as we look forward beyond that, is very much back to that core.
We know we have a strong proposition in that high protein, low carb, ready-to-drink and meal replacement shakes. We also know that consumers want help on their weight management journey. We all know indeed, that weight management remains a clear focus for many consumers. Very focused, as I said at the outset, O.N. is our, is our big brand. O.N. is really gonna be the one we're driving forward.
It's performing very well. As Mark said, the margins as we exit the year, will be very good for that brand. Navigating the short term, I would call it short term in SlimFast, in terms of the category challenges, believe that the brand will rebase and drive forward beyond that, we'll stabilize it first.
And just to clarify, Siobhán, in terms of the lower guide for GPN at the lower end of that five to seven, you know, I think you hinted at that at, at your opening remarks, but I'm assuming that's entirely SlimFast driven, right?
It is exactly. Yes, it is indeed. Excluding SlimFast, we would be well after and, and above indeed, the, the range we're guiding.
Thank you very much. Very clear.
The next question comes from Patrick Higgins from Goodbody. Patrick, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Firstly, Siobhán, a huge congrats on a great career and best of luck with your retirement. A couple questions for me. Firstly, maybe could we just dig into the performance in the international markets and GPN, very strong? Could you give us a bit more color on, you know, individual markets within that category?
Secondly, could you just speak to the whey cost backdrop across, you know, 80% concentrate and isolate? How does that look now? Does that look like it's gonna start trending higher or kind of stabilize at these levels? Then finally, maybe just, could you build on some of the, I guess, trends you're underlying demand trends you're seeing within Nutritional Solutions and the premix business?
You know, how should we think about the destocking trends between third quarter and fourth quarter? Should we anticipate a return to kind of normal levels of growth in fourth quarter, or, or how should we think about it at this stage? Thanks.
Thank you, and thanks for your comments. I'll let Mark take the whey costs and indeed, he'll speak to the Nutritional Solutions. On international, what you're really seeing is that global reach of O.N., and in fact, actually, we're doing well across all of our key regions. Clearly, you know, Oceania, Europe, Asia, all really driving forward. Continue to monitor the pricing dynamics, but our overall volume and pricing piece across international, doing well for the O.N. brands, and that sets us up well, as we would say, for the future. Mark, maybe?
Hi, Patrick. On, on whey costs, as we've talked over the last couple of quarters, clearly, dairy commodity prices and whey costs as well, have, have come down, looking quite useless, and obviously that's giving us some benefit in GPN into the second half here. Our current expectation right now is that dairy sort of commodity costs will stay reasonably stable. There's no indication at this point that they're going to move upwards. Reasonably stable, I would say for now.
I think that we're very much covered for the rest of the year in terms of our procurement. We'll probably start looking at next year pretty soon as well, I would say. From the perspective of, of direction, seems reasonably stable right now.
In terms of Nutritional Solutions, again, really pleased to see the sort of sequential quarter-on-quarter improvement and that rebalancing that we've been talking about. It's more of an issue on the premix side than the protein side for us this year. Certainly we did see that improve in the second quarter, and our current expectations are that it will continue to improve in the third and fourth quarter.
We did call our guidance a little bit down on volume, so timing might be a little bit slower than we expected, but not significantly. From that perspective, the trajectory is, is what we really expected. From a customer perspective, again, we feel pretty good in terms of the information they're giving us in end markets also.
Great. Thank you.
The next question comes from Lauren Molyneux, from Citi. Lauren, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, morning, both. Thanks for my question, and also congratulations from me on on your retirement as well. Just a couple of questions, please. So maybe on on the new CEO, firstly, so Hugh. So I know it's quite early days, obviously, but just wondering whether we should see the equivalent from within Glanbia, the next CEO, as reflecting a continuation of the strategy, or whether, you know, Hugh has kind of range to kind of tweak the strategy or maybe go for a more of a revolutionary model than evolution?
Maybe a bit more detail on actually when we can expect to hear a bit more on kind of Hugh and what to expect from him telling you. Also just related to that, and I apologize if I missed it in the release, but have you filled the GPN CEO role that will now be, obviously left by Hugh, or when can we expect to hear more on the plans for that role?
My second question is just on the, the GPN again, the top line guidance. Maybe if you could give a bit more detail in terms of the volume and pricing within that like-for-like guidance. Then also, I know you've talked quite a bit about you've got these distribution gains within O.N. which is supporting your growth. If we, if we strip that out, what is kind of underlying like-for-like or like-for-like volumes actually might be like? Also, what's driving this distribution gain, and what visibility do you have that that could continue to be a supporting factor going forward? Thank you.
Hi, Lauren. I, I hope I, I got all the, the questions, and thank you again for your comments. In terms of Hugh, I, I think I will leave that to Hugh in due course. Clearly, Hugh has been on the executive team for a long time, has been part of the evolution and transformation of Glanbia.
We have, as a collective, set out a strategy for 2023 to 2025, and clearly it is within Hugh's gift to also amend that in due course as he speaks with you, I'm sure, in early in 2024. Again, you will hear from us, I'm sure, very soon about the successor to Hugh within GPN. Suffice to say, we do very good succession planning in Glanbia, and you'll hear about that in due course.
In terms of the top line for GPN, as we spoke indeed at our recent London event, we have quite a mix across our business. You know, probably only around 23% is in the MULO categories, where you see, you know, great clarity on things like distribution versus velocities. A lot of our other business, we're looking at total consumption numbers.
I think suffice to say that where we have information across those channels, we can see that we're getting nice very nice distribution gains in that food, drug, and mass. Likewise, across some of the other channels, whether it is club, whether it is online, continuing to gain momentum. What is driving that? I would say, Lauren, a few things. Firstly, undoubtedly increased marketing investment.
We've spoken to you now over a number of quarters where we've been upweighting that investment in the brand, staying very close to consumers, changing our marketing mix so that we can really see the returns that we're getting across the brands. That channel mix itself is very positive for us, too. I think we have a very good mix across the business now, and we also have that global reach, which is reasonably unique.
It's the only brand that has a very strong anchored position in the US, but also has that global reach, and that's going to continue to drive our, our top line momentum. The value proposition isn't unimportant, you know, powder is resonating very strongly with consumers currently, as it should.
Even with the pricing that we've put through on a price per serve basis, it remains very competitive for versus other offerings. I think there's a number of dynamics driving that, and that really is what's giving us the confidence that it will sustain as we go forward. The shape between volume and price, as we said, will move as we go through the year, but fundamentally, we will deliver very good growth, we believe in ON, and that is a big underpin for the GPN business as we look forward.
Great. Thank you.
As a reminder, that star followed by one to ask a question today. The next question comes from Sethi Shah from Barclays. Sethi, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. First of all, congratulations, Siobhán, on a great career. I have two questions. The first one is on Nutritional Solutions volumes, which seems better in second quarter, but FY 2023 outlook slightly worse. Why is that? Is that prudence, or you see something in third quarter that is concerning? The second question on the US GAAP accounting change, like, when might we, we expect this to be formalized, and why, why are you able to do this now versus a year?
Good morning. Just to take those questions. In terms of the Nutritional Solutions volume trajectory, I think we're, we're being somewhat cautious around that in terms of the markets being quite dynamic right now. We're very happy that we've actually come in a bit ahead in the first half than what we expected when we talked to you in the first quarter.
As we look at the, at the markets, I think it's appropriate for us to sort of call that at mid-single digit decline at this point. You will see sequential improvement each quarter in the next two quarters. Again, as we head into next year, we feel we'll be in pretty good shape there.
From the the family nutritionals and the joint venture arrangements, look, we have an opportunity here, of course, following the Michigan initiative that we did. We started to discuss this with our joint venture partners, given that we now have two large factories in the US in our joint venture arrangements, it seemed to make sense to us to actually look at this arrangement again.
As a result of this, we're gonna be able to change our arrangement from being an agent, operating on behalf of the joint ventures effectively, and that allows us to make this change. In terms of information, we'll be getting detailed pro forma information out to everybody in the new year, so you can see how that will impact in 2024. As I said, it will be a 2024 impact going forward but not be impacting us this year. We thought it was important just to let investors know that's the direction we're moving right now.
Sure. Thanks. Yeah.
Just a final reminder that star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad to ask a question today. We have a question from John MacDonald from Jefferies. John, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Morning, guys. Congratulations to Siobhán again on, on the career you've had, and well done on today's results. Just a quick one on the other, the other cost of goods sold in your business that may have not been mentioned. I'm thinking about storage, shipping, logistics, air freight. It's been well documented the past couple of years about surcharges and such. Are you seeing strong deflation in, in, in that area of the business and cost as well?
Yeah. Thank you, John. I would say we're seeing stabilization. We are probably seeing outside dairy, still some inflationary pressures. We mentioned that, I think, in our first quarter results. There are some, still some elements of the COGS that are still actually will be for 2023 on that upward trend. We're taking all that into our guidance of margins for the year.
Again, while the dairy is down, yes, you're absolutely right. There's, there's areas that are still going up, and then there's areas that are stabilizing as we move through 2023. The big move for us is that positive piece of dairy in the second half, with all of the above taken into our upgraded guidance for GPN and group.
Thank you.
Thank you.
We have no further questions, so I'll hand it back to the management team for any concluding remarks.
Again, just remains, thank you as always, for your attention, and we'll talk again soon. Thank you.