Good morning. Welcome to the Kingspan preliminary results 2022. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind anytime, please press star two. For operator assistance at any point, it's star zero. Thank you. Now let me turn the call over to Gene Murtagh. Gene, please begin when you're ready.
Thank you very much, good morning everybody and welcome to the 2022 preliminary results call. We'll get straight into it on Page number 3 of the slide presentation, which I'm sure you've got in front of you. In summary, the revenue for the year came in at EUR 8.3 billion, which was an increase of 28%. Trading profits, pretty much as guided came in at EUR 833 million, which was an operating margin of 10%. Earnings per share came in at almost EUR 3.30, which was an increase of 8% also.
Driving those increases by division was insulated panels, which were up 23%, largely owing to inflation, which we will speak a lot more about later in the call, but also aided by a very significant increase of 46% in our global sales of QuadCore, which is our proprietary technology in our insulated panels. The insulation business grew by 40%. Again, inflation played a large role here, but so too did the very significant impact of district heating, which is as a result of the acquisition of Logstor last year, which grew very significantly organically. Once again, we'll deal more with that later on. As part of that division now, technical insulation, i.e., non-building, comprises around 35% of global revenue and is growing significantly.
We've established our roofing and waterproofing division with the acquisitions of both Ondura and Derbigum. That division now this year should deliver a run rate up a run rate revenue of approximately EUR 500 million. Naturally we have some other strategic initiatives in our sights on that front as well. The light and air business increased by 27% with significant margin increase as we head towards a 10% operating margin there over the coming years. Data and flooring as flagged grew very significantly by around 33%. Again, very much driven by the data center activity in Europe and in North America.
I'm going to just take you forward to Slide number 11 before we get onto the financials, which is titled, "2022 Planet Passionate Progress." Just to the left side, well, probably to the middle of that slide, dealing with the underlying businesses performance against the base year of 2020. We set about very significant and challenging and ambitious targets on a good number of fronts. Just to highlight the progress in some of the areas that actually been extremely encouraging. At an emissions level from Scope 1 and 2 in our manufacturing, there's actually been a 41% absolute reduction in emissions over the last two years, which is obviously very significant. In terms of our zero emissions vehicles, the replacement rate globally was 60% last year.
We're hurtling towards 100% there, which is our 2025 target, we'll probably meet that in advance of that. Direct renewable energy, again, our target there is 60% by 2030. In all likelihood we will meet that in advance of that year. 34% of our electricity was direct renewable, and 7% of that was from our own sites. Solar PV installations across the group were almost 42% of our sites now incorporate that. Again, that will make a very significant leap forward in the coming year. Just one further thing to highlight is the waste to landfill, which is a target we're again very passionate about.
We've over, we've reduced the waste to landfill by over 50% in the last two years. Again, our target there is absolutely zero and we'd be enthusiastic about achieving that in our target period. In terms of the organic expansion, product development, et cetera, we'll touch on that later, probably more during the Q&A session. I'm gonna hand you over to Geoff now to take you through the financials.
Thanks, Gene. I'm turning to Page 17 in the slide deck. Just some of the financial highlights. As Gene outlined earlier, group revenue's up at 28% to EUR 8.34 billion. Trading profit up 10% to EUR 833 million. EPS up 8%. A final dividend of EUR 0.238, bringing the total dividend for the year to EUR 0.494, up 8% in line with earnings and a payout of 15%, which is in line with our dividend policy. A decent free cash flow performance, I'll come to the constituents of that in a second. Free cash flow EUR 393 million compared to EUR 127 million in 2021.
Considerable progress, particularly in the second half of the year on reducing working capital. Net debt came in in line, broadly in line what we guided, a little over EUR 1.5 billion. The trading margin was 10% down 160 basis points versus 2021, and we look at the divisional profile of that in a second. The effective tax rate up 30 basis points, and that really reflects the geographic mix of earnings year-on-year. Net debt to EBITDA at 1.62 times, compared to 0.88 in 2021.
Return on capital employed, 15.9% or perhaps more fairly 16.5% when you annualize the impact of acquisitions, bearing in mind the timing of some of those late in the year, in terms of return on capital employed. From a debt perspective, it's also worth highlighting that, developmentally the business invested EUR 1.3 billion through 2021, in terms of acquisitions and CapEx. You know, a year of significant investment. Turning to Page 18, just to look at the margin by division. Insulated panels, 10.6% for the year, down on 2021, which was a high water market in many ways in terms of margin performance.
The margin in the second half of the year of 2022, lower than the first half, as we worked through our inventories of raw materials, as the tide turned on some of those inputs mid-year last year. They were traded out through much of the second half. The insulation margin 10% compared to 12.4%. Again, that would have been reflective of an element of volume weakness in insulation, in the insulation boards dimensions to that business, down about 10% in volume. Although the Logstor business, which is now a quarter of that division, its volumes were up 18% in the second half of the year.
Roofing and waterproofing very much a stub period in 2022, 5.5% trading margin, but we would expect somewhere between 7%-8% in the current financial year, trending to 10% over time. Light and air recorded some progress, 7.5%. Again, the the medium-term margin guidance there in the next couple of years or so is 10%. Water and energy, 5.5%. Data and flooring, 12% in line with the with the 2021, and trending similarly as we move into the early part of this year in that division. Overall at 10%. You'll see on the right-hand side of the of that particular page, compounded trading profit growth of 17% since 2018.
Turning to Page 19 and just the bridge of group sales and profitability. Dealing with sales in the first instance, currency was +3%. Acquisitions contributed 9%, and underlying revenues grew by 16% or a little over EUR 1 billion in 2022 versus 2021. From a profit perspective, currency was +3%. Acquisitions contributed about 8%, and underlying down slightly, down by about 1% from a profit perspective. Turning to free cash flow on Page 20. You know, a decent free cash flow performance overall. EBITDA, a little under EUR 1 billion. Working capital increased by EUR 136 million, but bearing in mind that underlying sales were up by EUR 1 billion.
We expect to make progress in reducing the working capital to sales percentage, further progress in that regard in 2023. The metric was 14.5% at the end of December, compared to 13.8% at the end of December 2021. I think there's 100 basis points or so of working capital to come out of the business over the course of the next 12 months. That should aid cash flow in the current financial year. Other significant items on that page, our tax outflow was EUR 158 million, broadly in line with the current tax charge for the year. Significant CapEx in the year, EUR 250 million during the year.
Our CapEx guidance for 2023 is approximately EUR 180 million, so it ought to be a little bit lower in the current year. All of that combined to deliver the EUR 393 million of free cash flow. Reconciling that to net debt on Page 21. The other significant cash flow items beyond free cash flow were the acquisition spend of EUR 893 million. The roofing and waterproofing acquisitions were a significant component of that, along with Troldtekt in the insulation business and other acquisitions made in the year. The financial asset was the strategic minority stake in Nordic Waterproofing. Our cash dividends paid during the year about EUR 97 million.
We closed out the year with a little over EUR 1.5 billion of debt. On Page 22, we just highlight some numbers around our balance sheet. Leverage, Net debt to EBITDA, 1.62x . We arranged additional lending facilities of EUR 800 million during 2022. Our liquidity is a healthy EUR 1.45 billion between cash balances on hand and committed undrawn facilities. The weighted average maturity of our long-term private placement notes is 5.7 years. Return on capital employed as a metric is set out on Page 23. In terms of the annualized return after the impact of acquisitions, 16.5%.
We ought to see that progress as we reduce the working capital position, in particular during the current financial year. Clearly it's a very important metric for us as we think about the business and its profile. The sales by geography are set out on Page 24. No significant changes geographically year on year. The Americas comprising 22% of the business, as compared to 20% in 2021. The European markets broadly 70% or there or thereabouts of the business. With that, I'll hand back to Gene.
Great. Thank you very much, Geoff. If we could take you now to Slide 31, which is titled Outlook. I suppose just as a general comment, we've probably never seen as mixed an environment in the history of the business. Like by geography, by product set, by end market, there are really huge variations which are probably not surprising. In terms of our kind of current trading, it's like it's very difficult to look too far ahead naturally, but year to date, underlying like-for-like revenues are broadly similar to what they were prior year. That's, you know, up 6% or 7% in price and down 6% or 7% in volume.
When we add on the acquisitions, it's about 7% ahead the revenue for the year to date. Naturally, we're heading into probably the toughest comp, which is Q2, which was the highest performance of the business really ever, driven in all, you know, usually by inflation, inflationary pressures at that point last year. All in all, we'd feel reasonably confident about how we take the business through the current year. That's, that's it from the formal presentation perspective. Very happy to open it up to questions now.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star then one on your telephone keypads. If you change your mind at any time, please press star two. The first question we have from the phone lines comes from David O'Brien of Goodbody. Your line is now open.
Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Three please if I could. Look, you've mentioned Gene and the outlook, just the, I suppose, the variability of performance across geographies and end markets. Just wondering if you could maybe flesh that out a little bit first and give us a flavor of the varying regions and end markets by performance. Secondly, specific to the U.S., can you give us a view on, look, we've got the Inflation Reduction Act, we have the CHIPS Act, you know, how do they play into Kingspan's business more medium term? Finally, could you give us a flavor of what trends you're seeing in steel, MDI, and mineral fiber costs, please?
Okay, David. Yeah. In terms of the regional performances, in terms of the regional performance, I'd say, starting with North America, it's probably one of the better performing regions that we've got. Naturally our significant exposure there is non-residential, which is still performing well as a backdrop. Also our sectoral exposure there is very much to our advantage as well. Huge exposure to the data side, huge exposure to the automotive transition towards EV, which is driving an awful lot of our project volume at the moment. The pipeline we're looking forward to there actually for the next, you know, 18 months or two years is extremely encouraging. Moving across to Europe, France.
France and Germany would be very steady for most of our businesses. Benelux and Central Europe and in particular Poland, we would highlight as very weak. Then the U.K., I would say understandably, not an outstanding performer either. That's it broadly in terms of the regional variations. In terms of the IRA act in the U.S., I'd say in terms of how that will affect us, that's kind of a TBC. It's very early days for us in that area. From a cost perspective, there's a lot moving around there actually at the moment. I would say that our costs have probably bottomed out.
If, you know, if anybody was anticipating further deflation in our cost base and in our selling prices, I think that has certainly halted for the time being. Steel naturally would be our biggest purchase then chemicals, and then to a smaller extent, mineral fiber. Steel we would actually expect to see it rising in the second quarter. Difficult to put a percentage on it yet, obviously that would be commercially sensitive enough. In terms of direction of travel, it's gonna go up. Too will our selling prices, but with the typical lag. MDI similarly, we would expect to harden in the foreseeable future as well as demand picks up again. From a mineral fiber perspective, obviously we consume a lot of that.
You know, developments more recently is that there's a lot of capacity available. You know, we are seeing more availability, we're seeing more price reductions. Difficult to call where that will go, but obviously energy is a huge driver for that particular segment. Energy prices now are probably similar to what they were a year ago for the production of those products, and selling prices a year ago were probably 30% lower than what they are now. Let's see where that travels over the next couple of months.
That's brilliant. Cheers. Thanks. Very helpful.
Thanks, David.
Thank you, David. Our next question comes from Arnaud Lehmann of Bank of America. Arnaud, your line is open.
Thank you very much. Three questions as well, if I may. Firstly, I guess you comment on Q1 profit, but you do not publish Q1 profit. Could you give us an indication of typically, how much Q1 contributes to your first half results, let's say, how much was it in 2022? Was it 30%, 40%? I assume it's smaller than half. An indication would be helpful. Secondly, I think you mentioned that you're gonna combine the light and air and the water and energy divisions. Could you please explain the fundamentals for that?
Lastly, you gave us some indication in your initial comments on the free cash flow. Is it correct to assume that excluding acquisition, you could reduce your debt by, let's say, EUR 500 million-EUR 600 million on lower CapEx and positive working capital this year? Thank you.
Okay. Just to deal with the question around Q1, I mean, very, very directionally in a, you know, in an average year, Q1 would be about 20% of annual profitability, give or take. That's as I say, in an average year. Maybe just to deal with your, with the last question on cash flow. Absolutely, EUR 600 million is the net cash generation before acquisitions that ought to be deliverable this year in light of that pre-working capital percentage coming down and CapEx being sub EUR 200 million. Absolutely that's the, that's the general number there.
Thanks, Geoff. Yeah, in terms of the light, air and water, as we grow, we naturally need larger platforms. Very much a part of creating a larger product platform global across this combined business unit. There's going to be channel synergy. There'll be, I'd say a significant boost in the online channel, which is well established in the water business, less so in the light and air, and the products would be very suitable for that channel. There's also a very significant service dimension to both of these businesses, which is just different than the rest of the group. We would see the opportunity to over time amalgamate that and grow it significantly on a global scale. Hence the rationale for amalgamating these businesses.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of George Bec, BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead when you're ready.
Morning, all. Thanks for taking my question. Just first one on Logstor. Clearly very attractive business proposition and attractive volume growth. Do you think that's sustainable going forward? Or what's the long-term volume trajectory of that business?
As, as Geoff pointed out, 18% organic growth, which is really very encouraging, very significant. We would be very enthusiastic about the longer term prospects for this business. That's naturally as a result of a transition in energy sourcing, largely around cities in Europe. Couldn't really be precise on it. There is growing interest in district heating as a concept rather than the opposite. Logstor would be the significant market leader in Europe on that front. Yes, we would be, I would say, very enthused about the prospects for that business and related tributary businesses as well, that we hopefully will develop over time as well.
I think George as well, our capacity plans also reflect you know, the ongoing positive prospects for that particular business when we plan to increase our capacity by 30% in the current year, and by a further 50% at three years out from this year. Yeah, the structural growth in that business ought to be positive in the coming years.
Okay. That kind of feeds quite nicely into just wider M&A intentions. Clearly you have a long shopping list of different verticals and products that you're looking at, but how do you balance those? What's the key priority right now? What are you looking at? What's interesting?
Yeah. A, probably a more encouraging pipeline than we've ever had, which is a good starting point. We'll be as characteristically disciplined, in terms of our balance sheet as we've been in the past. I'd say, you know, cautiously, optimistic about how we, how we take that agenda forward. In terms of geographic exposure, you know, the significant, you know, opportunities will be continental Europe and America, both Latin America and North America. There are opportunities right across the product portfolio. Literally every division there are significant opportunities. No more to be said than that, really. Yeah.
Okay, understood. Maybe one just final question then. Just returning to the outlook, I appreciate you haven't published the panels volume backlog, but do you mind just giving an indication of how it compares to last year?
Well, we haven't given the specific backlog number because given the range of markets that we're in, the range of applications and, you know, different things running at different speeds, you know, the direction of travel you can take it is consistent with what Gene outlined in terms of our, you know, our volume performance year to date being down 7% or there or thereabouts. That feels like life for now.
Okay. Understood. Thank you, guys. Thanks for your time.
Thank you.
Thanks, George.
Thank you, George. We now have Flor O'Donoghue of Davy. Please go ahead when you're ready.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just a couple from me. The first is just in relation to Slide 12 in the deck, the very interesting graphic you always put up. Just interested to note there, it looks like you have something like over 10 projects coming to fruition this year. Just maybe to get a sense of what the revenue opportunity over time from that level of kind of capacity coming on stream is. The second one, just a sense of the warranty charge last year, just how that evolved, if that's okay.
Yep. On that, on that Slide 12, the organic expansion. To be honest with you, there's nearly more internal demand than we're physically able to satisfy in the sense of actually building facilities, sourcing the equipment, et cetera. As the group clearly expands and the divisional footprint expands, the demands get bigger along the lines Geoff just highlighted in terms of Logstor as an example. You know, demand literally for two new facilities there right now. As you can see from this, it's covering all divisions and pretty much all geographies. There's probably about EUR 400 million of CapEx demand on that slide itself. Typically speaking, the revenue would be approximately twice the CapEx.
You know, once we kinda get this, once we get all of this done, bear in mind, there's several years of development here. These are all projects that are either underway or very much in our planning pipe. It's encouraging to say the least, that the demand is there from the businesses for this CapEx.
Just a question on the warranty total provision at the end of December 2022, approximately EUR 180 million, and the income statement charge, approximately EUR 48 million.
Great. Thank you. Just one final follow-up, if that's okay. Just on Rooftricity, you mentioned in the document, just some supply constraints around getting.
Yeah
...parts of the product in. Just maybe to get a comment on that and maybe how that's going in general anyway or your thought process around that and the PowerPanel.
Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely, Flor. Not surprisingly, a lot of the world's solar comes from China. To the modules for this particular product. There has been some, I'd say, well aired disruption in that whole channel. Also I would say some delays in just the certification process, just owing to log jams of testing requirements generally around the markets. That's all going to go absolutely fine. We're trying to extend the supply base as well, probably to be less reliant on the areas where we commenced. In terms of the appetite, like the appetite is really extremely significant.
To be frank, we're just trying to hold that back until we're physically fully ready for it all. As you look ahead, it's very conceivable that within a period of four or five years, the demand for solar incorporated into roofs will be, you know, multiples higher than what it presently is. This is all about readying ourselves for that. As you can see from the Slide 12, there are a number of other facilities aside from the U.K. that we expect to get ready for PowerPanel over the next year or two. Yeah. Like of all product sets, probably the one I'd be most encouraged by.
Super. Thanks, Gene, and thanks, Geoff.
Thank you. We now have Gregor Kuglitsch of UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead whenever you're ready.
Good morning. I hope you are well. I've got a few questions, please. Maybe can we start with the waterproofing business? I think you're sort of saying EUR 500 million.
Run rate. Can you sort of tell us what you think the sort of initial margin is on that? I appreciate you have to integrate that business and then sort of the medium-term aspiration. Maybe related to that, I think you sort of called out that there's more opportunities here strategically. I think there was one large deal the other day, which was probably a bit too big for you, correct me if I'm wrong, in the U.S. Just give us your thoughts on kind of the size and scale that you wanna, you know, push this business into the next few years. That's sort of question one and two, I guess.
The second question is, can you just remind us in rough terms, I appreciate it's a bit commercially sensitive, in rough terms, where we are now? What was the steel and chems bill last year, so we can get a bit of an idea how to think about that. Related to that, I think you called out in H2 that you had a bit of a headwind from, you know, I suppose overpriced or high-cost inventory. Can you quantify how much that actually was, like in euro million terms or something like that? Finally, I know your QuadCore sales are growing quite nicely, and they're now actually becoming quite big chunk of the same. Can you just give us an idea how much extra margin you make on that? I appreciate, again, commercially sensitive, but directionally, please.
Thank you.
All right. I'll just start with the roofing. The roofing side of it. Look, there's been lots of M&A activity in that sector, which you know well about over the last couple of years. I think we've been working away reasonably discreetly ourselves on that front. There was that Duro-Last deal announced recently in the U.S. In terms of scale, it's not remotely too large for us, actually. You know, you were at that table.
I think in the end the price value. but okay.
Oh, no. The multiple was way out of anything we'd be prepared to pay, which is a different issue than the absolute figure.
Yeah.
That's, that's really all we'd have to say on that front. Yeah, it's that type of business that would exactly fit the profile of what we're what we're about. We're a very returns-focused business, and that just wouldn't fit our profile. Geoff, maybe you can take some of the other.
Just on the, on the impact of higher priced inventories, in the second half of the year, about 100 basis points of margin in the insulated panel business in the second half of the year will be broadly attributable to that. On the roofing and waterproofing margin profile, 5.5% in 2022 is effectively just reflective of the fact that we acquired the businesses late in the year and the acquisition costs and so forth were also reflected in 2022. This year ought to be at or about 7.5% or 8%.
Very much the direction of travel here is a 10% return on sales division, and we'll be working hard in the coming years to achieve that.
Thank you.
On steel and chemicals.
Yeah, on steel and chemicals, Gregor, we for the last number of years we've been reluctant to give specific numbers on that for, you know, for reasons of commercial sensitivity. I think at this outing, we're not feeling any differently about that.
Thank you. The next question we have comes from Rajesh Bhatti of JP Morgan. Please go ahead when you're ready. We will move on to the next questioner. The next question is Yassine Touahri from On Field Investment Research. Please go ahead when you're ready.
Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. A couple of questions. Could you give a little bit more color on the volume development and pricing development that you experienced in the first quarter of 2023? I think you mentioned 5%, 6% volume decline, but I just want to double-check. Is it fair to assume based on your comments that the volume were down double digits in the first quarter of 2022? Question volume. Second question on the pricing dynamic in your panel business. Could you explain a little bit how the pricing negotiation works with installer?
How confident are you in your ability to have a positive or neutral price cost dynamic for 2023, given the volatility in chemical price and steel prices? That would be my second question.
Okay. Just to deal with the volume question in Q1. Yeah, in the early part of this year, volumes are globally are down by about 7%, and pricing is about 7% ahead. Our underlying sales, pretty much flat year to date. That's the direction of travel through Q1.
That, and that takes into account, you know, extreme variations which we highlighted earlier on. Like, some of the businesses are, like, significantly ahead and some are significantly behind. But as Geoff highlights, that's the, that's the average take on what it looks like. In terms of how the pricing dynamics works, it's reasonably straightforward. We, we try and get the highest price we can, and the customer tries to get the lowest price we can. That's pretty much how it works out. As I highlighted earlier on, we would feel that our cost base. Certainly for the foreseeable future, it has bottomed out. We're looking at actually at an increase in cost base.
Coming with that will naturally be efforts to increase our selling prices, as I said, the typical lag. Our pricing naturally right now is under pressure because of the current low level of relatively low level of our cost base. We would expect that to be fairly short-lived if the expected growth in our raw material costs transpires.
You made some comments just here about volume down double digits in Q1 in 2022. I think that's an error. The volumes were ahead in Q1 last year.
No, in Q4 2022.
Oh, Q4. Q4.
The fourth quarter. Yeah, yeah.
You don't understand their volumes on a quarterly basis.
Yeah.
In the second part of the year in.
You can take it they were under pressure. Yeah, absolutely.
Just to follow up on the pricing, do you see any increased competition from your, the steel manufacturer like Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal in an environment where volume are down? Or do you feel the industry is rational?
I would say the downstream businesses of steel mills are never particularly rational. That's no different today than it was last year or five years ago.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We now have Manish Beria of Société Générale. Please go ahead whenever you're ready.
Yes. My first question is also the question asked by Gregor. Last time was that the QuadCore has become very important for you. It's already 17% of the panels business. Just trying to understand, do you get a mix impact when the QuadCore sales grow faster than the rest of the business? I mean, is there a margin differential there? This is my first question. The second question I wanted to ask on your pricing strategy this time, because Kingspan has been delivering positive price cost spread in the last two, three years now. Is there a willing to give back this time price cost, or it just like, continue to have a positive price cost spread also in 2023?
Yeah. Absolutely like any innovation that Kingspan has, clearly the margin profile for the latest tech is positive. There is a positive impact in the panels business. That did contribute to the margin performance in 2022. Bearing in mind that overall volumes in the division were down, you know, QuadCore was ahead. Again, for commercial reasons, wouldn't want to talk specifically about the margin other than it is a positive mix impact and that ought to play out further in the coming years as QuadCore becomes an even more meaningful part of the insulated panel business.
Mm-hmm. Okay. The price cost, the pricing strategy this year?
Like, you know, there's obviously a very close relationship in terms of trend-wise between our costs and our selling prices, which is why I would say we're probably, we're in or around at the lowest level presently, I would say. As we anticipate costs increasing, naturally our quotations very shortly are going to have to reflect that, in terms of our incoming in Q2. We will be increasing prices, very shortly, in certainly the insulated panels business.
Is it fair to say, I mean, as you say, there is some lag always? This year also maybe there is some lag, but you'll have some inventory because last time you suffered because of the high cost inventory, so that will be beneficiary. In that sense, I mean it will still be neutral to positive this year, the price cost.
Yeah. Yeah. Probably in the heel of the hunter, right. Absolutely. We will naturally enter Q2 with lower cost inventory. That will rise as we go through towards midyear.
Okay. Yeah. Thanks for that. Just wanted to see, like how do you feel about the consensus that is for EBITDA this year for EUR 750 million. I mean, you did EUR 833 million this year, 2022, and now the consensus is expecting like 10% decline. Are you happy? Do you think this is a reasonable range or is it something like you can absolutely... It's a very low number, the consensus now. How do you think about that?
Yeah. I mean, the consensus number that we collect shows EUR 751 million of trading profit for 2023. While we're not giving specific guidance for 2023, the 751 is a number that we would be comfortable with at this early stage in the year.
Okay. Yeah. Makes sense. Thanks. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.
Thank you. We now have Rajesh Patki of JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Yes. Hi. Good morning all. I hope you can hear me now.
Yes.
Oh, yes. Yeah, yeah.
Great. I've got three as well, please. The first one is if you could give us a rough idea of the group's cost base, maybe in terms of fixed and variable cost. Appreciate you don't want to provide details on steel and MDI individually, and you've commented on the trends on steel and MDI. You see them moving, but maybe if you can comment on how you see the fixed cost base evolve this year. The second question is, one of the listed competitors last week said they expect a double-digit decline in top line for the full year. Appreciate the difference in product profiles, but is that something you broadly agree with? If not, why?
Lastly, I think you mentioned prices running at around 7% for the first quarter, with potentially further increases in the second quarter from purely from a cost perspective. Do you see any competitive risks to these price increases, and particularly given the challenging volume environment? Thank you.
Yeah. Just on the fixed versus variable cost profile of the business. I mean, on average our, you know, our gross margins are somewhere between 28% and 29%. Our overheads below that are 18%-19%, and those overheads are approximately 50% fixed and 50% variable. I suppose if you wait long enough, every cost is variable, but in the short term, that's the outline split of it.
Yeah. In terms of the mineral fiber producer, I guess you're referring to, that came out last week talking about double digits. I'm not sure what it was. Volume.
Topline
Volume. Yeah. Like it's really, it's really a very different industry, with different dynamics going on in it. You know, it's extremely energy led from a cost perspective. As I highlighted earlier, energy is pretty much at the same price as it was a year ago. I guess what they're probably highlighting is that their selling prices, et cetera, are gonna reflect that very shortly. Lots of free capacity there, which we've noticed over the last couple of months emerge as well. Like our business is very different. As we've said, we're actually expecting cost increases, and some of the quite significant in Q2. There's no alternative for us but to drive that through in our selling prices. As in up.
Thank you, Geoff.
Thank you.
Thank you. We now have Yves Bomehard from Société Générale. Please go ahead when you're ready, Yves.
Good morning. Hope you're well. Can you hear me?
We can.
Yeah. Yeah.
Morning.
Good. Hope you're well. Just a quick follow-up on the PowerPanel. I just wanted to know, can you actually quantify the market potential that you see here? Can you also explain whether or not the revenue exposure of that product would be more tilted towards renovation versus new builds? That'd be really helpful. Maybe secondly, on stone wool, you've clearly mentioned that you've got some plan here. I was wondering what kind of technology are you looking at? Are you looking to go full on electric? Can you maybe specify which region you're looking to penetrate, and what kind of CapEx we should be looking for if you're actually going through a stone wool European expansion program? Thank you very much.
Thanks, Yves Bomehard. Yeah. From a, from a PowerPanel perspective there's in terms of the potential, well, like it's just difficult to call. It's not inconceivable that, you know, 50% of roofs within five years will have some form of solar incorporated into them. You know, that naturally has very significant implications for the value of an insulated panel. Bearing in mind that it's probably around 3x the square meter revenue versus what it is currently. That's big. From a, from a refurb perspective, again, we're trying to fine-tune the Rooftricity model, which is a funded solution.
In essence, what we'd be doing there is essentially knocking on doors of existing inefficient and old building owners to try and encourage them to switch without having the capital out there to start with. I think the refurb opportunity will be more significant than the refurb opportunity currently is, our perspective on it. We will have a much crisper view of this within six to nine months as we properly get up and running. As I said earlier, if anything, we're trying to hold back interest in it until we're logistically ready for takeoff.
From a stone wool perspective, you know, just to put some context around this, we have a very clear ambition, and we're about 95% on track to be the only global multi-technology, as in every insulation technology provider, right across the piece, as in eight 10 technologies. A gap we have is stone wool. As you know, about 11% or 12% of our global insulated panels incorporate that as a core, which naturally is our key interest. There are some countries that have that as a preference in certain applications, and it's a gap in our portfolio. You know, we would expect this, even in five years' time, to be a relatively small part of the group. You know, it's not an ideal technology for a lot of applications.
It's hugely energy and emission consumptive. Which is not really Kingspan's direction of travel. To your point about electrification, our sole goal here in terms of the manufacturing profile is renewably powered electrification. We will only come to market with a, an ultra-low carbon alternative, which is not run-of-the-mill, as you know, from the existing incumbents. It'll be very much part of the Kingspan ethos when it comes to the energy profile.
Thank you. Would that open the door as well to potentially looking at glass wool, wood wool, hemp wool, and all the rest of it?
Probably the latter ones, absolutely. Glass, very unlikely.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We now have Paresh Shah of HSBC. Please go ahead whenever you're ready, Paresh.
Hi, good morning, all. I have two questions. The first one is, if I just go back to the chemical and steel. I appreciate you are not willing to give us a absolute number, but if you could just give us what kind of was the inflation last year and what do you expect this year as in-inflation together, all that chemical, steel and mineral oil. The second one is on market share. As your competitor highlighted last week, about a issue there and potentially, I know you produce insulation which are at the high end.
Do you see a chance of you gaining market share in that market, you know, because the pricing differentials are quite different from what it was one year back?
Sorry, what was the last question about?
Are we gaining share?
Well, I was talking about the mineral wool and, yeah, and the pricing differential, I appreciate. I mean, last year you had a negative spread versus them, but this year it's kind of the opposite. Do you expect the market share shift back to you?
to be honest, like we don't really compete head on. You know, for a start, a very significant portion of our panels business actually is that as a core. It's not competition, it's front and center for us within Kingspan. As a pure insulation, they're not that substitutable or interchangeable. They're generally used in different applications, which is the only reason we would consider being in the game in the first place. like I would say to you as in general, a mineral fiber, and I just bundled glass and stone into one for the time being, is probably about one third of the price per square meter of our technology.
You know, if that moves 10% or 15% up or down or likewise us, it doesn't significantly change the competitive dynamics because the gap is already so large. Obviously there are outer exceptions to that in terms of product spec and pricing. They're not as interchangeable from a commercial perspective as might meet the eye.
Just, and just as regard inflation, I mean, our price growth during 2022 was, you know, of the order of 20% or thereabout. You know, that was to recover the significant inflation inflicted on the business last year. You know, we're still only very early into 2023, so it's, you know, it's not possible to kind of be specific on what the inflationary or otherwise outlook would be for this year other than to say that we're saying in Q2, we fully expect some level of inflation in steel in particular, you know, Q2 versus Q1.
You know, I think we could generally speculate that we're highly unlikely to see the quantum of inflation over the course of this year as we had last year. Let's see how the year plays out.
Sure. Can I just follow up one last one, in terms of the renovation wave and any kind of energy efficiency regulations. Looking at the volume declines, we do not see much of the pickup in that segment. Could you please elaborate if there is any kind of specific government plans which has come through and you are excited about?
I could say as a general backdrop, we probably ought to be more excited than we are. There's obviously a lot of, you know, talk and discussion about refurb and energy conservation and all of that. The direction of travel is clearly encouraging. There's not nearly as much of it being activated as needs to be in terms of any of the climate goals. It's, I'd say that's all to look forward to, but very little of it in place so far from our perspective.
All right. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Bell of Berenberg. Please go ahead whenever you're ready, Jonathan.
Good morning. Thanks very much for taking my questions. I've got three, if that's okay. The first one is on steel prices. I'd be interested to hear, you know, what gives you confidence that you think steel prices will increase through Q2. Also what you think the capacity is for your end markets to absorb further price rises, and what it could mean for volumes. Secondly on inventories, they did remain elevated as you pointed out at the end of 2022 versus revenues. You've alluded to them kind of normalizing through 2023. Do you expect that will have a further impact to the margin, or is that fully played out as far as you're concerned?
Then thirdly, just on the 2-1 guidance, I'd be grateful to hear, you know, your thoughts on kind of visibility for this year at this stage. How does that compare to a typical year, and what are the factors affecting that at the moment? Thanks.
In terms of what gives us confidence, raw mat steel in particular is gonna rise. It's just, I suppose it's not even confidence, it's just going to happen. Like we've probably gone through, I would say a false low, in terms of steel demand. As, as you know well, there was significant inventory build in multiple materials. Insulation of course, but also, steel. There was, you know, very significant inventory build through last year as people were concerned. People pulled away from the market very much in Q4, and in fact in Q1, which would equally be our experience as we try and flush through, higher cost inventory from last year. That kind of created, from an end market perspective, it didn't really reflect the, the true demand.
A bit of a false high and a bit of a false low. Naturally demand then increases as inventory levels are heading towards a very low level. The steel industry knows that, as a result, and it's global, we are certain that we will see increases in the second quarter.
Yeah. As regards the, you know, the margin impact of, if you like, that de-stocking through the second half of last year, I mean much of the heavy lifting has been done on that. There are still some markets where there's a bit to do, but much of it has already happened through the back end of 2022.
Thanks, Jonathan.
Thanks. Sorry, just with regard to, you know, the ability of end markets to absorb further price rises, what's your expectation there at the moment?
Like depending on the quantum of increases, there'll really be no choice. It's, you know, our experience over multiple cycles has been to pass through, you know, up and down with some lag and, you know, assuming that there's going to be a sustained increase, and as Geoff pointed out, all we really know is what's happening in the second quarter. If it is sustained, there's simply no option, or no scope not to pass it on.
Thanks. Thanks very much.
Thank you. Our final question comes from Yuri Serov of Redburn. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes, good morning. Let me ask my questions one by one, if that's okay. First of all, your acquisition spends. You're talking about cash generation before acquisition, so EUR 600 million. Your EBITDA is likely to fall in 2023. Does that mean that I mean, you spent EUR 1 billion on acquisitions last year? That tells me that you definitely are gonna spend less than EUR 600 million in 2023, and probably even less than that. What do you think?
That just, it's probably just not quite as straight line as that. It could, it could be nothing or it could be a lot more. It depends on the opportunities, depends on the value, depends on the returns propositions. I guess you can take it. It's not, it's not, particularly our ambition to drive our Net debt to EBITDA higher than what it is now.
You would not want to increase it?
Ideally not.
Okay. I understand. Secondly, on volume. You were just talking about de-stocking in steel and your own industry went through de-stocking last year, in the second half and in Q4, and you're saying that in steel you're gonna see volume rises. Does that mean that we're gonna see volume rises in the second half for your business as well?
We don't know.
Does this logic hold there?
Well, I suppose the second half is a long way away. I mean, at this point we just don't know what the profile of the business will be in the second half of the year.
You're quite confident that demand is gonna rise in steel. I mean, you should have more visibility on your own business.
What? Thanks for that. I don't really get you. The second half is a long way away. We take this month by month, quarter by quarter. Steel's going up in Q2. That's what we know. That's not kind of a maybe or whatever, it's going up. What happens after that will obviously be very much demand led.
All right, Yuri, thanks for that. Actually, we've run out of time for the call. Thanks everybody for your time today and, we look forward to seeing those of you on the road show over the next couple of days and weeks. Thank you.
Thanks, everybody.
Thank you all for joining. That does conclude today's call. Please have a lovely day. You may now disconnect your lines.