Ryanair Holdings plc (ISE:RYA)
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Apr 30, 2026, 4:38 PM GMT
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Jul 25, 2022

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Ryanair Q1 results release conference. My name is Michael O'Leary, Group CEO, and I'm joined this morning by Neil Sorahan, our Group CFO. Good morning. We'll open as usual with some opening remarks from me, and then going to ask Neil to take you through the slide presentation, and then we'll mix and match during a Q&A session. This morning, Ryanair reported a Q1 profit after tax of EUR 170 million as traffic recovers strongly post-COVID, but at lower fares. That EUR 170 million PAT is before exceptionals, but is well below the EUR 223 million PAT we reported in the Q1 of FY 2020, which was the last year pre-COVID, just to put it in some context.

Highlights of the quarter. During Q1, traffic recovered very strongly to 45 million passengers from 8.1 million in the previous year. That recovery would have been stronger, but for the significant damage that April and Easter suffered both bookings and fares as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the end of February. Prior to this summer peak, we've taken delivery of 73 737-8200 Gamechangers. That summer 2022 capacity is on sale at about 115% of summer 2019. In other words, the pre-COVID capacity. We've also this morning announced that our hedging for FY 2024, so next year, has been increased to 30%. Currently, in the current year, we're hedged at 80%.

Net debt has significantly reduced to just EUR 400 million at the end of the quarter. That's down from EUR 1.4 billion on the 31st of March, thanks to very strong and positive cash flows from bookings and trading. We're also pleased this morning to announce that the majority of the 29 A320 leases in our subsidiary, Lauda Europe, have been extended by up to four years to 2028 at advantageous rates. Just a couple of quick themes. This summer, we're very proud to be operating 73 of the new Boeing 737 Gamechanger aircraft. These aircraft carry 4% more passengers, but they burn 16% less fuel and also reduce our noise emissions by up to 40%.

We're continuing to invest in our partnership with Trinity College Dublin Sustainable Aviation Research Center. In April, we're very pleased to have announced a partnership with Neste to power up to 1/3 of all of our flights to and from Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam with a 40% SAF blend. In April, Sustainalytics ranked Ryanair as the number one airline in Europe, the number two globally, for our ESG performance. Following the beginning of the post-COVID recovery in air travel this spring, Ryanair moved quickly with our trade unions to negotiate accelerated pay restoration agreements so that we could restore previously agreed pay cuts with all of our people as soon as our business returns to pre-COVID levels.

To date, I'm pleased to say that accelerated pay restoration agreements have been agreed with unions representing over 80% of our pilots and more than 70% of our cabin crew. Significant progress is being made to close out the remainder of those pay restoration agreements. The sense of our decision to work with the unions and to agree pay cuts to minimize job losses during COVID, during which we kept our pilots and cabin crew current and employed. Those decisions have been vindicated in recent months as many European airlines, airports and other third-party providers have struggled to restore jobs that were cut during the pandemic.

Ryanair seems to be unusual among the major EU airlines this summer, insofar as we are fully crewed for both pilots, cabin crew, engineers and handling staff at those airports where we do our own handling, despite operating at 115% of our pre-COVID capacity. I think that reflects very well both on the team at Ryanair and on the decisions, the difficult decisions we took during the COVID pandemic. Over the past two years, numerous airlines went bankrupt and many legacy airlines, including Alitalia, TAP, SAS and LOT, only survived by significantly reducing their fleets and their passenger capacity despite receiving multi-billion Euro state aid packages. These structural capacity reductions have created enormous growth opportunities for Ryanair in summer 2022 to deploy our new fuel-efficient 737 Gamechangers.

With Boeing scheduled to deliver over 50 more of these Gamechangers ahead of summer 2023, we continue to recruit and train substantial numbers of pilots, cabin crew and engineers. Already approximately 50% of our summer 2023 capacity is now on sale, and we recently announced new bases and new growth in Belfast International for summer 2023, a fourth based aircraft in Venice for winter 2022, and the commencement of flights from Bologna Forlì Airport in winter 2022. Thanks to our 210 737 order book and available fleet capacity, the Ryanair Group expects to grow from 149 million passengers pre-COVID to over 225 million passengers by FY 2026. In so doing, we will capture very significant market shares in most of our major markets across Europe.

Just to touch briefly on outlook. Our outlook remains cautious. We remain hopeful and optimistic that the high rate of vaccinations in Europe means that the airline and tourism industry will fully recover and put COVID behind us through the remainder of 2022. We cannot ignore or eliminate the risk that there may be new COVID variants in the autumn of this year.

Our experience with Omicron last November, which really devastated our Christmas traffic and yields, and the Ukraine invasion at the end of February, which devastated our April bookings and yields, shows just how fragile the air travel market remains in Europe. While our recovery, and certainly Ryanair's recovery during the summer of 2022 has been strong, we believe that recovery remains fragile and hugely dependent on there being no adverse or unexpected developments either from Ukraine or COVID for the remainder of FY 2023. If we don't have negative developments, we'll perform very strongly, but if there are negative developments, we'll have to act appropriately. There are clear signs as we've previously guided of a huge pent-up demand for air travel, particularly for short-haul in Europe through the summer of 2022.

However, while bookings are recovering strongly, they still remain closer in than was the norm pre-COVID. At this stage, while we have limited visibility into the second half of Q2, we still have almost zero visibility into the second half of this year, the two winter quarters which are typically loss-making. At this time, though, I'm pleased to say that Q2 average fares are tracking ahead of peak summer 2019, the pre-COVID period, by a low double-digit percentage that's moved up from a high single-digit percentage in Q1. Ryanair plans to grow our FY 2023 scheduled traffic to about 165 million passengers. That's up 11% on FY 2020, the pre-COVID figures.

It would've been higher, but for the damage that was inflicted on April and Easter by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite being one of the best hedged airlines in Europe, high oil prices will lead to increased costs for our 20% of our unhedged fuel for the remainder of FY 2023, but that's a much stronger fuel hedge position than any other airline. Given this later booking profile, the lack of visibility in the second half of the year, volatility in oil prices for the 20% that's unhedged, and the potential risk for COVID, adverse COVID and Ukraine developments, it's still too soon to provide meaningful FY 2023 profit after tax guidance at this time.

We hope to be in a better position to do so at the half-year results in November, but as our experience again with Omicron last November and Ukraine in February shows, any such guidance will be subject to a very rapid changes from unexpected events which are well beyond our control during what remains a very strong but a very fragile recovery. Neil, do you wanna take us through the Q&A or the slide presentation please?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

Yeah. Sure, Michael. Thanks very much, and good morning, everybody. Ryanair has the lowest fares and lowest costs of any airline in Europe. We're number one for traffic, and as Michael has already indicated, we're gonna grow strongly from 149 million passengers pre-COVID to 165 million passengers this year. We're number one for customer service and enjoy strong environmental credentials with a B rating from CDP, and indeed, Sustainalytics have now ranked us as the number one European airline for ESG. Our balance sheet enjoys a strong BBB investment grade rating, and it's this financial strength coupled with our lowest costs that make us the long-term winner in aviation in Europe.

This summer, we'll operate 770 new routes from 15 new bases as we return to growth, and we're well set to grow to 225 million passengers by FY 2023, thanks to the Gamechanger order that we have 73 of them already in the fleet. We came into COVID with the lowest cost per passenger ex-fuel of any airline in Europe, EUR 31, and indeed, we've widened the gap between ourselves and competitors in the first quarter where that has now dropped to EUR 30. We would hope to build on that over the coming months and years. On the quarter itself, we saw a strong rebound in traffic to 45.5 million passengers from 8.1 million last year at a strong 92% load factor.

Revenue, while up 600% to EUR 2.6 billion, was badly impacted over the Easter period due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and as a result, average fares were down approximately 4% compared to the same quarter pre-COVID. Ancillaries, however, did perform well and helped offset some of that. Despite the fact that we grew by 330% sectors and 460% traffic, costs were only up 250%, which was a very strong indication of the cost control in the business over the course of the past number of months.

As a result, profit improved from a loss last year of EUR 273 million - EUR 170 million in the quarter, but still below the EUR 243 million profit that we made in the first quarter of FY 2020. The balance sheet is improving. We finished the quarter with EUR 4.6 billion in cash and an increase in unencumbered aircraft to 92%. The important number here is the net debt, which has dropped significantly from EUR 1.45 billion at the 31st of March, year-end just ended, to EUR 0.4 billion at the end of this quarter. We're on track to achieve our target of broadly neutral net cash, net debt over the next two years, despite record CapEx for the next two years.

On current developments, summer capacity is 115% ahead of peak summer 2019. This is helped by our 73 Boeing Gamechangers which are now in the fleet. As Michael has already indicated, there is a massive pent-up demand, but there are operational challenges, most of them outside of our control in the form of unprecedented air traffic control restrictions and airport delays. Our fuel is one of the best hedge books in the market at this point in time. 80% hedged for FY 2023, and we've increased cover to 30% for FY 2024, which is a big competitive advantage. We will grow to 165 million passengers this year, but we'll do so on our load active, yield passive strategy.

Recovery into the second half, where we have very limited visibility at this point, we believe will remain fragile and subject to any news flow in relation to the Ukrainian situation or indeed any new variants of COVID-19. Of course, sustainability continues to be at the heart of everything that we do in Ryanair, and we've launched a new sustainability report this morning. Just a bit more color on the summer itself. Operationally, we're performing very well. We've got 73 Gamechangers in the fleet. They're delivering enhanced fuel burn and extra passengers, 4% more seats per aircraft. As a result, we're operating 115% of summer 2019 capacity.

The decisions that we made at the start of COVID to reduce and more or less eliminate job losses and to keep our people and our crews current, and also to get ahead of the recruitment curve this time last summer means that we are uniquely fully crewed for summer 2022. We're making good progress in relation to pay restorations, and we're committed to restoring pay when the business gets back to pre-COVID levels. We hope to make further progress on that over the coming weeks. As regards ATC, we are experiencing delays. We've seen an unprecedented level of disruptions due to strikes, due to shortages of staffing in both ATC and airports, albeit on the handling side or on the security side.

We're happy to say this morning that we're close to finalizing the extension of four leases. In Lauda, we've got 29 A320s we hope to extend the vast majority of those for up to four-year periods, and that will lock in immediate cost savings but also add to our operational efficiency and resilience over the coming years. We have garnered strong market share over the past two years. Just moving on, I think this is an important slide from Eurocontrol as it highlights Ryanair's strong performance across Europe. As you can see, bar none, we are operating streets ahead of everybody else. Most competitors are not growing this year. They're canceling flights, whereas we're operating in excess of 3,000 flights per day and growing strongly.

I think this is a very strong picture of what Europe looks like at this point in time. As regards hedging, we've got a significant competitive advantage over everybody else. 80% of our fuel for the current financial year is hedged. 65% of that is through jet swaps at $63 a barrel, with 15% through caps at $77 a barrel. I'm pleased to say that we have now increased our hedging into FY 2024 to over 30% at just over $90 a barrel. As you can see, this puts us in a significantly stronger position than everybody else and gives a massive competitive advantage into this winter, and beyond in relation to fuel.

Over the past two years, we've seen significant capacity come out of Europe, be it through bankruptcies or indeed, airlines downsizing as they receive significant amounts of state aid from their governments across Europe. As a result of that, in Italy, for example, we've grown from 30% to 40% as Alitalia has significantly downsized. By a country mile the number one carrier there. We now grow to the number one carrier in Hungary this summer, where another low-cost competitor has now fallen into second place. A lot of capacity has come out of Austria, where significant competitor capacity has disappeared or shrunk. Buzz, our Polish operator, have outstripped LOT, and we're operating our single largest schedule ever out of Dublin this summer, with just over 30 aircraft.

As you can see, we're very well-placed to grow to 225 million customers over the next five years, which will be a 50% increase in traffic from the 149 million that we carried back in FY 2020 pre-COVID, and this is facilitated by our 210 Boeing order book. As I already said, the environment and ESG are at the center of everything that we do. This morning we've launched our 2022 Aviation with Purpose Sustainability Report, and this sets out our ambitious targets, not just for the next 10 years but also our path to net carbon neutral by 2050. Recently, we've signed a commitment letter with SBTi, Science-Based Targets initiative, and we would expect that they will verify our targets over the next two years.

Of course, I'm delighted that Sustainalytics have ranked Ryanair the number one airline for ESG in Europe over the course of the past quarter. Ryanair will grow to 165 million passengers this year. That's an 11% increase from pre-COVID levels. We'll do this in a load active, yield passive strategy. Demand is strong. There's a lot of pent-up demand in the market, and Q2 fares are tracking ahead of the summer of 2019 by low double-digit percentages. We have to caution, however, that the recovery remains fragile into the second half of the year where we're typically loss-making. You know, we very well remember the Omicron variant, which emerged last November, and we're concerned that something may happen into the autumn and winter of this year.

Equally, there are risks in relation to what may happen in Ukraine, if there's any spillover, elsewhere. Indeed, oil remains at very high and volatile levels. As a result of this uncertainty, we don't think it's appropriate to provide PAT guidance at this time. We do continue to target modest FY 2023 profits, and we hope to be in a position in November to provide more meaningful guidance on PAT. Beyond this year, we're very well-placed. There are lots of opportunities in the market. There are lots of growth opportunities at the right cost, and we will deliver to 225 million passengers per annum by FY 2026. The balance sheet is rock solid. The opportunities are available. Cost base is in good shape. We believe we're the long-term winner in this market.

Michael, we'll maybe go over to Q&A at this stage, please.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Yeah. Thanks. Morning. Let's begin by discussing Ryanair's ESG strategy. What were the quarter highlights?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

We were very pleased to get our 73rd Gamechanger into the fleet for peak summer 2022. These aircraft have 4% more seats yet burn 16% less fuel and CO2 and are 40% quieter than the existing aircraft. We're also very pleased. We've partnered with Neste now in Amsterdam to pick up a 40% SAF blend, a sustainable aviation fuel blend, on our flights out of Amsterdam. I think it's important that, you know, we've received a strong backing for the work that we've been doing in the form of Sustainalytics, who have now ranked us as the number one airline for ESG in Europe, and indeed the number two globally.

This morning we're very pleased to launch our Aviation with Purpose sustainability document, which sets out our ambitious targets for the next decade, and also sets out our path to carbon zero by 2050.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

What is Ryanair's job creation plan for the next five years?

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

Yeah, we plan to create 6,000 new, well-paid jobs for aviation professionals, our focus being on bringing through cadets and engineering apprentices. We're investing EUR 100 million in two new high-skills training centers. We've ordered eight CAE simulators, and we're opening three new maintenance bases in Kaunas, Shannon, and Malta, all of which will help our operational efficiency and effectiveness.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

How are the pay rise duration discussions progressing?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

Very well. We took the decision, as you know, with the start of COVID, to minimize job losses, through agreeing pay reductions with our people and their unions. However, when we saw traffic starting to come back in the spring, we moved quickly to enter into pay restoration and acceleration discussions with our unions and our people. You know, we're committed to restoring pay back to pre-COVID levels as soon as the operation gets back to pre-COVID profitability. I'm pleased to say that over 80% of our pilots and 70% of our cabin crew have now signed up to agreements on accelerated pay, and we would hope to finalize the small balance that remains in the near future.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

What are investors to make of strikes in Belgium, Spain, and Italy?

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

Yeah, I think these have had much more PR or noise or notice than any effect they've had. We've had some strikes called by minority unions in Spain and Italy in recent weeks. They've not been supported by our cabin crew or pilots. The Belgian strike. We've had some Belgian cabin crew and pilot strikes. Remember, throughout the summer Ryanair's operating more than 3,000 flights per day. On no days of these small strikes have more than 1% of our flights been affected. In actual fact, it's ATC strikes and cancellations have caused us far more disruption than these very small and poorly supported strikes in Spain, Belgium, or Italy.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Michael, we read a lot about airlines canceling flights these days. Why is Ryanair's operational performance so much better than its peers?

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

The decision to minimize job losses and keep crew current during COVID has been vindicated. We're fully crewed for summer 2022, despite operating at 115% of our pre-COVID capacity. We're suffering more disruptions from ATC and airport staff shortages than anything else, and we're confident that we'll complete up to almost 100% of our summer schedules, which will be about 115% during peak summer of our pre-COVID capacity.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Do you expect an increase in disruption costs due to these delays?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

No. The majority of disruptions are outside of our control. It's the likes of, air traffic control disruptions and airport handling and security delays. We are finishing our flights. We're not canceling flights. We, while we do have some delays that may be subject to EU261, any costs will be immaterial in the grand scale of our numbers.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

You referenced that Ryanair is operating 115% of its pre-COVID capacity this summer. Where are you seeing the market share gains?

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

Yeah, we've very strong market share gains in Italy, Austria, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and Ireland. We've opened 15 new bases. We're operating over 770 new routes. I think the important thing is that Boeing are scheduled to deliver us 50 more Gamechanger aircraft in advance of summer 2023 so we can maintain this capacity growth into a market across Europe where most of our competitors have either gone bust or significantly reduced their capacity. We're winning, and we expect to continue to gain significant market shares.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Will you move any capacity around this winter or indeed into summer 2023?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

We're in the happy position that we've got more airport offers than we actually have aircraft available to us. We'll be opportunistic in how we allocate that, and if there are airports increasing fees as we're seeing, as we saw, for example, in Fraport in Germany and indeed as we're seeing with Fraport down in Greece and with some of the high-cost Belgian airports, then yes, we may move some capacity this winter. But it's not all about moving capacity. It's about also adding additional growth. We've announced a new base, for example, in Belfast for the summer of next year. We're adding extra aircraft into Venice. We believe there are significant growth opportunities for us over the next number of years.

We already have 50%, for example, of summer of 2023 on sale at this point in time. We'll continue to put the capacity where we see the best opportunities.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Will an economic downturn or recession impact Ryanair this autumn or winter?

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

Yeah, we think it'll be good for Ryanair's growth because in a recession people still fly, they just become more price sensitive. Ryanair has the lowest fares, a growing market share. We're very well hedged for fuel and currency, and that gives us a key competitive advantage into this winter. Into summer 2023, we take delivery of 50 new Gamechanger aircraft, which lower our costs because they allow us to carry 4% more passengers but at 16% less fuel.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

How will Ryanair achieve its 225 million pax per annum target by FY 2026?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

Well, we've a 210 aircraft order book from Boeing, 73 of which have already been delivered. A lot of capacity has come out of the market over the last two years, and airports are very keen not only to get restoration, but also try and get some growth deals locked in with Ryanair, who's the only airline that's really growing at any pace over the next few years. You know, I think we're in a very strong position. We've already locked in a number of our larger bases like Stansted, like East Midlands, like Bergamo, Charleroi, et cetera, with deals out to the end of this decade. We've got lots of opportunities to grow, and we will grow to 225 million passengers by FY 2026.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

just moving on to your fleet, Michael, any further update in discussions with Boeing on a MAX 10?

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

Not much. The negotiations with Boeing ended in 2021. Boeing are nowhere close to being competitive on pricing, and that's why other Boeing customers are switching to Airbus, such as Transavia, Qantas, and the recent Chinese order. We're very pleased that we're in the comfortable position that we have 210 Gamechangers with deliveries out to 2026. That's sufficient growth to take us to 225 million passengers. We look forward to resuming discussions with Boeing, but only when Boeing get to a place that's where pricing is competitive and will not lead to an increase in Ryanair costs.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Are you going to take more leased NGs into your fleet?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

No, we looked at this over the past couple of months and have decided not to do so because there's a much better opportunity to extend the majority of the Lauda A320 leases for periods of up to four years.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

What's the rationale, Neil, for extending these leases?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

Well, first and foremost, we're gonna be able to lock in significant cost savings, not only for the four-year extensions but also when, for the average two years, up to that. Six years of savings coming through on these aircraft leases. It also gives us greater operational efficiency and opens up more growth opportunities.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Do you have any concerns about Boeing's ability to deliver aircraft ahead of summer 2023?

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

Yes, we do. I mean, already Boeing are hinting at having delays of the 21 aircraft we're due to get between September and December this year. This would be as inexplicable given that Boeing have confirmed they're producing 31 aircraft a month from June, which is 200 aircraft before the year end. If there's any delay in delivering 21 of those 200 aircraft to Boeing, we think that would be inexplicable and unacceptable. But, you know, we will continue to work with Boeing, and we expect them to meet and in fact beat the delivery dates for the 50 aircraft, 50 Gamechanger aircraft we expect to take between September of this year and April of next year. They're producing more than sufficient aircraft to deliver Ryanair those 50 aircraft.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Neil, looking at your results, you reported a Q1 profit pre-exceptionals of EUR 170 million. What are the highlights?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

Well, traffic rebounded strongly in the quarter from just over 8 million last year to 45.5 million at a strong load factor of 92%. Unfortunately, Easter was badly impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which impacted close-in bookings but also fares to the extent that average fares were down 4% compared to the same quarter pre-COVID. We did, however, have a strong performance on ancillaries where we generated about EUR 22.50 per passenger. Cost control within the business was strong. At a time when sectors increased by 330% and traffic was up 460%, also fuel had almost a sixfold increase to EUR 1 billion, we only saw costs increase by 250% in the quarter.

This was down to the lower variable cost that we have, the addition of the 737 Gamechangers that came in at the right price, but also 16% lower fuel burn. That was offset somewhat by the higher cost of fuel and indeed the higher cost that we're now paying for route charges despite the fact that the service is not up to scratch. As a result of all of that, our unit costs in the quarter reduced to EUR 30, which was a good performance.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Neil referenced strong ancillary route performance. Michael, what are the key drivers?

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

As they have been in recent years, it's very strong performance on priority boarding, reserve seating, and in-flight sales are going particularly well this summer, especially the growth of duty-free sales on our flights to and from the U.K., which now accounts for almost 40% of our 3,000 daily flights.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Fuel prices obviously spiked recently. What's your current fuel hedging position?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

We're the best hedged airline in Europe at the moment with 80% of our fuel for this year hedged through a combination of jet swaps about 65% at over $60 a barrel, and another 15% through caps at just over $70 a barrel. Importantly, we've extended our hedging book out into FY 2024. We're now over 40% hedged into FY 2024 at just over $90 a barrel. I think it's important to also highlight that in an environment where the euro dollar is almost trading at parity, we've got our OpEx well hedged at over 115 this year, and indeed our CapEx on the Boeing gamechanger order also hedged at about 124%.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Let's turn to your balance sheet. Is net debt reducing?

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

Yeah. Net debt has fallen by over EUR 1 billion in the quarter from EUR 1.45 billion at the end of March to EUR 0.40 billion at the end of June. We've seen very strong cash inflows, which has increased our cash balances, as Neil said, to just over EUR 4.5 billion at the quarter end. We continue to have 90% of our 737 fleet completely unencumbered. It remains our target to reduce net debt to zero over the next two years despite peak CapEx and the need to repay two over EUR 1.5 billion in bond repayments over that period.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Any update, Neil, on the CapEx guidance?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

Well, it's unchanged from the previous guidance I gave back in May. We're looking at a peak CapEx this year, FY 2023, of about EUR 2.3 billion. That includes aircraft, pre-delivery payments and maintenance. Next year, we'll see that drop to about EUR 2.1 billion-EUR 2.2 billion before it drops significantly into FY 2025.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

How will you finance the Gamechanger aircraft order?

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

As always, we'll continue to be opportunistic. Most of the funding will come from strong cash flows, thanks to the post-COVID recovery. We continue to retain a solid BB B investment grade rating, and we have 90% of the existing fleet is unencumbered. As always, we will select the lowest cost financing option from a suite of measures including unsecured bonds, bank debt, sale and leasebacks, JOLCOs, and internally generated cash flow.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Are there plans to distribute funds to shareholders in the near term?

Neil Sorahan
Group CFO, Ryanair

As Michael said, our objective over the next two years is to manage our peak CapEx, and indeed to pay down maturing bonds over the next 18-24 months as well. That's where we'll be focused.

Peter Larkin
Head of Investor Relations, Ryanair

Michael, finally, let's close the Q&A by discussing the group's outlook for FY 2023.

Michael O'Leary
Group CEO, Ryanair

It's too early to give any accurate guidance because there's too much uncertainty out there. There are clear signs of pent-up demand in summer 2022. The booking curve remains closer in than was normal prior to COVID. The traffic recovery, however, has been strong. We are on track for a 95% load factor during July. We still believe that recovery is fragile. If there are adverse news flows on COVID or Ukraine through the autumn or into this winter, then that recovery will be damaged or impacted as it was last Christmas and last Easter. We have no visibility at this stage into H2. H2 is normally loss-making, but at this time the good news is that the second quarter average fares are tracking up now a low double digit.

That was high single-digit at the time of the full year results ahead of peak summer 2019 fares. We expect that we're on track to grow to 165 million passengers. That would be up 11% on pre-COVID as long as there is no adverse news flows between now and the end of the fiscal year. Due to the later booking profile, that lack of visibility in the second half of the year, the volatility of oil prices, particularly for the 20% of our fuel that's unhedged, the possibility of negative COVID and Ukraine news flows means that recovery is potentially fragile this winter. That means it's too early to provide any meaningful profit after tax guidance for the full year.

We do hope to be able to give the market a much more or some realistic guidance by the time we get to the H1 results in early November. Nevertheless, as Neil has said in his presentation, I think what's key here is not the short-term news flow, but the very strong growth opportunity that Ryanair is sitting on. We have a unique combination of low-cost aircraft deliveries coming to us. We're very strongly hedged both on fuel and on currencies, and we are deploying these aircraft in markets like Italy, in Ireland, in Vienna, and in Hungary, where we are taking very significant market share from the competition. We believe that underpins our strong growth recovery to 225 million passengers by FY 2026 and a full restoration of the profitability and the margins we enjoyed pre-COVID.

It's just we're not sure yet whether that would be in FY 2023 or in FY 2024. With that, can I say thank you to everybody for participating in this morning's release, to Neil and to Peter Larkin, our Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. We look forward to talking to you later on the investor call and also on the analyst call.

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