Ladies and gentlemen, you're all very welcome. We had originally called this press conference to call out our Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, for 15 years, 13 months of inaction on the Dublin Airport cap. We are really concerned that given the complaint made by Airlines for America to the U.S. administration that the White House will, or there's a real risk that the White House will block Aer Lingus flights landing in New York, or worse still, a national catastrophe could befall. They might block Micheál Martin going to the White House in March. It is time for action, and we want to call, we and the American Airlines are calling on our Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, to scrap the cap. It is not good enough to say it'll happen at the end of this year or two years' time.
They had a government program published in January 2025 that said they would scrap this cap as soon as possible. As soon as possible does not mean 15 months later. The NAMA legislation was passed within 24 hours. We do not think this is as urgent, but 13 months is not as soon as possible, and we want the cap abolished by legislation by the end of January, failing that by the end of February. If it does not, then we are calling on the Trump administration to block or cancel Micheál Martin's visit to the White House until the US airlines have a fair shot or we lift this cap at Dublin Airport. I understand we have been slightly overtaken by some social media controversy with Elon Musk, which we will be happy to address at the end of this meeting, at the end of the briefing.
We'll run through this pretty quickly and then get you onto the meeting and stuff. Ryanair is wonderful. We're growing very strongly in Ireland and all over Europe. It rose to 207 million passengers last year. This summer, we're operating from 96 bases, 224 airports, and we are growing strongly. The only problem is we can't grow as strong as we'd like here in Ireland because we have a Do-Nothing Taoiseach and a Do-Nothing government have failed to lift the cap. The reason we grow so strongly is we have such a cost advantage over every other airline in Europe. Our cost per seat is just EUR 35 compared to Wizz, EasyJet, who average around EUR 75, and BA, Air France, Lufthansa, EUR 180. Current developments this year, our traffic is up 3% to 207 million passengers.
We're growing our market share across the EU, particularly in those countries such as Sweden, Slovakia, Italy, Albania, and Malta, who are abolishing travel taxes and lowering airport charges. They're following the recommendations of the Draghi report, which 15 months ago called for a much more competitive European Union, and we need a much more competitive European Union if Europe is going to increase defense spending. There are some countries like Belgium, Austria, France, and Germany who are still raising taxes, but they are losing capacity and losing traffic. The critical thing for Ryanair is we have 300 aircraft on order. We start taking the first of these new MAX 10 aircraft in January of next year, 2027. We want to deploy these aircraft in countries all over Europe, particularly in Ireland, but the cap prevents us from doing so.
Last year in Ireland, we've grown traffic at Dublin, Cork, and Shannon, Belfast Airport. The most remarkable thing about the cap is how completely ineffective it is. The traffic cap at Dublin Airport is set at 32 million passengers. Thanks to the efforts of the airlines, Ryanair, Aer Lingus, and Airlines for America last year, we got a court injunction which suspended the cap. As a result of that last year, mainly thanks to Ryanair's growth, we grew by an extra million passengers at Dublin Airport. Dublin grew by 1.4 million passengers to 36.4 million passengers. It is now 4.4 million passengers over the cap, and yet our government still won't abolish or won't pass the legislation they promised to abolish this cap. The airlines have taken this to the European courts.
We expect a decision from the Advocate General sometime in February and a final court ruling in June. We believe the cap is illegal because it's contrary to the European Charter, which protects freedom of movement. We're calling on our government, why 13 months later have you done nothing to remove the cap, which you promised you would as soon as possible? The reason we believe is that Micheál Martin is wasting his time on a round-the-world tour, getting his photograph taken, eating Ferrero Rochers, and doing bugger all at home on the cap, on housing, or on infrastructure. There is a real danger now. The A4A complaint, which was submitted to the U.S. administration in December, demands Ireland has to respond to that by the end of January.
If the response does not consist of, "We will immediately abolish this cap," we think there is a real likelihood under the Trump administration that Aer Lingus flights would be blocked landing in New York, Micheál Martin would be blocked from visiting the White House in March, and you will see the cap abolished within 24 hours because it will be a national emergency when Micheál Martin's overseas travels are constrained. Good news in Ireland, we are still growing strongly this year in 2026. Again, thanks to the injunction we have against the cap, we are still growing our traffic. We have 42 aircraft in Ireland, two new aircraft, 214 routes. We expect to grow traffic in Ireland by about 25.5 million passengers this year, including a fourth aircraft and four new routes in Shannon. In Dublin, we are growing strongly. Traffic up last year by 4% to 18.7 million.
Dublin is a real challenge for us and for the other airlines. This illegal cap is blocking growth. The U.S. airlines are not willing to commit to long-haul routes or to putting more routes in there until the uncertainty of the cap is removed. We, as a short-haul airline, can continue to grow because we can, you know, if the cap is reimposed, we can flip those aircraft out of Dublin reasonably quickly. It is time for this Do-Nothing government to act. As I said, we have a Do-Nothing government, Micheál , a Do-Nothing Taoiseach whose world tour continues while it fails to get anything done at home.
We do not object to our Taoiseach parading the world, eating the Ferrero Rochers, but we would prefer if he actually stayed at home and implemented his government program and let some of his ministers do the overseas travel. This is a brief snapshot of the last four months in our glorious leader's life. In September, he was handing over rugby balls in Canada. In November, he was at the COP conference in Brazil. We have an environmental minister who could have done that. In November, he was at the G20 in South Africa. The finance minister could have gone there. In November, he remarkably stopped off for a jobs summit in Angola, where not one job has been created in Ireland as a result of his visit to Angola. Very defensive, "Oh, I'm here representing the country. Nobody objects to me." Yeah, sorry, we do.
We don't mind you on your overseas travel as long as you're implementing your government program at home. The government program at home has not been implemented. 15 months, as I said, 13 months later, we still have the cap, and with a 20-seat majority, he still hasn't abolished it. It continues. In January, he was off in China for four days with the Ferrero Rochers, and this week, where is he? He's dossing in Davos. Tonight, they're hosting a dinner for 80 people, top executives to focus on jobs. The most important thing Micheál Martin could do for jobs would be to abolish a cap at Dublin Airport and let Ryanair and the other airlines get on with the job of growing traffic, growing tourism, and growing jobs in Ireland. Of course, that wouldn't involve him getting his photograph taken or nibbling on the Ferrero Rochers.
We have a very exciting seven-year growth plan for Ireland, but it's only implementable if this government takes some action or uses its 20-seat majority. We believe we can grow traffic from 40 aircraft in 2025 and 23 million passengers to 60 aircraft and 35 million passengers over the next seven years. That would see dramatic growth at Dublin. Cork would grow from four to seven aircraft. Shannon, from three to seven aircraft. We would open a new base in Knock, which is currently not a base, a two-aircraft base in Knock. All we require is, one, scrap the cap and allow Dublin to handle the 60 million passengers that it can handle with two runways, freeze the Dublin Airport already at high Dublin Airport fees at its existing EUR 16.50 per departing passenger.
That would still allow them to build the additional terminal facilities we need, but they would have to stop their current proposal to waste EUR 9 billion building stupid things that airlines don't need at Dublin Airport. Much more importantly, at EU, focusing on the Draghi report, we need to bring ETS, which is the environmental taxation system in Europe, into line or a level playing field. We only tax European citizens traveling on intra-EU flights. We don't, we exempt Americans, Chinese, the Gulf carriers all coming to Europe, coming to and from Europe. It is indefensible that we only tax our own citizens and exempt everybody else. The only way to fix that distortion is to bring ETS, environmental taxation, into line with CORSIA, which would result in lower fares for all EU citizens. In summary, as you know, we are Europe's number one airline.
We have grown in Dublin. We're still growing in 2026, 125 routes and 18.7 million passengers in Dublin. The DAA are proposing to put charges up 10% despite record traffic and record profits. Micheál Martin has 13 months later still failed to scrap the Dublin Airport cap, which he promised to do as soon as possible. We believe it's because he's too busy on his worldwide tour. He spends more time abroad than Elton John does. We want and can deliver 50% traffic growth by 2032, and it is imperative that this government acts quickly before Aer Lingus flights get blocked in New York or, God forbid, Micheál Martin's March visit to the White House gets scrapped. We have, in recent days, as you'll see, run into some controversy with the owner of X, Elon Musk. I don't quite know why he took such umbrage over it.
I had a discussion about, we have been in discussion with Starlink, his satellite system, for about over 12 months now. It is a very good system. We like the Starlink system. It is a terrific system. It works very well. The problem is, if you put it on board aircraft, there is a cost of that of about EUR 250 million a year, including the cost of installation and then the fuel drag. You have to put not one, but two aerials on top of the aircraft fuselage. That will have a between 1%-2% fuel drag. We spend about EUR 5.5 billion a year on fuel, and therefore it would increase our fuel bill by about EUR 100-EUR 200 million. The Starlink people believe that 90% of our passengers would happily pay for Wi-Fi access.
Our experience, sadly, tells us we think less than 10% of our passengers would pay for this access, and therefore we can't afford to shoulder costs of between EUR 150 million or EUR 250 million a year. If Starlink wants to fit the flights, fit our aircraft and pay for the fuel drag, we'd happily put them on board. The only way we see Starlink working on board our aircraft on short-haul flights is if you give it away for free. Like most things in life, if you give it away for free, passengers will use it. If you want passengers to pay something modest like EUR 1 , EUR 2 , or $3 on our average one-hour, 15-minute flights, we think less than 10%, I think, and that's even optimistic, probably less than 5% of passengers will take this up.
I thought that was a reasonably measured response to why we're not using Starlink. Elon Musk apparently took great umbrage and resorted to insulting me on X at the weekend, calling me an idiot. I think yesterday he also rounded on me and called me a, I think, a retarded twat. All I would say to Elon Musk is he would have to join the back of a very, very, very, very long queue of people who already think I'm a retarded twat, including my four teenage children. We do want to thank him. We've had, I think, over, I think, three or four million hits on this seat sale our IT team launched yesterday, which is the Big Idiot Seat Sale. There's 100,000 seats available for sale at just EUR 16.99, which just goes to show that Europe leads the world in low airfares.
There's no airfares like this in North America. We're later on this morning going around to the X offices in Cumberland House to present or to give Elon Musk a free ticket. He doesn't even have to pay the EUR 16.99, a free Ryanair ticket to thank him for the wonderful boost in publicity, which has seen our bookings rise significantly. They're up about 2%-3% in the last five days, which, given our volumes, is a very significant boost. Thank you to Mr. Musk. I take no insult at all of being called an idiot or a twat, as anybody with teenage children would know. You're frequently called an idiot and a twat at home. I don't need to go outside to be insulted. He's wrong on the fuel drag. We noticed he was holding a poll about should he launch a bid for Ryanair.
We're a publicly owned company. He's free to do so at any time, but non-European citizens cannot own a majority of European airlines. If he wants to invest in Ryanair, we would think it's a very good investment, certainly a significantly better investment than the financial returns he's earning on X. We want to thank him sincerely for the additional publicity. Eddie, anything else you want to add in terms of the growth strategy for Ireland?
No, I mean, we are quite well.
Or your reflections on, have you also called me an idiot and a twat?
Sometimes.
On a regular basis.
No, you're quite right. I mean, on the whole connectivity, there are lots of companies doing this, and you've got the three parties, you've got the customers, you've got the providers, you've got the airline. I think it'd be actually much less than 5% of people would actually pay for it. I'd say Wi-Fi would be a good thing to have on board, but it would make our fuel more expensive because there is some drag on that. When we come up with a solution, then we'll have Wi-Fi on board, but we're not paying for it.
Sure. Okay. Any questions? John.
What Wi-Fi has is something that's come up for many, many years for airlines and has mentioned that kind of fuel drag. Why have you been talking to Starlink for 12 months if you know that obviously you don't really want it, but it's going to incur that kind of cost in terms of the fuel and the drag, etc.? Would you even think of trialing it on some of the aircraft to see what happens and see what the takeoff is like?
Look, there would clearly be a demand for Wi-Fi on board our aircraft if it was free. You know, other airlines, mainly long-haul carriers like Aer Lingus, like Lufthansa and others, are talking about installing Wi-Fi on board as a facility and giving it out for free, but their average fares, particularly on long-haul, are over EUR 1,000. Our average fares are EUR 45. We cannot afford that kind of to pay that EUR 150-EUR 250 million cost to install Wi-Fi unless it can be paid for. We have had discussions with Starlink and other providers, Amazon.
Amazon.
Vodafone and others. A lot of it has focused on, you know, how can we, is there a way we can jointly put this on board? We will trial it for you. We give you a platform with 200 million-300 million passengers across Europe, but you pay for it. You sponsor it, or can we get joint sponsorship? There are always ways in which you are looking at creative solutions that might overcome what is our fundamental issue with putting Wi-Fi on board, and that is cost. We do not believe passengers will pay for it, but it would certainly be a welcome addition if we can in some way finance it and put it on board our aircraft for free. We have had many years of experience. You get on board our aircraft. Lots of people are there on one-hour flights, but they are on their laptop.
They have Netflix and all this kind of stuff. We do not believe there is any significant demand on the basis that people would pay for it on one-hour flights. Sorry.
Michael, Stephen Murphy, Sky News.
Stephen, you're welcome.
Post on X has now called you an insufferable chimp. Is that kind of rhetoric really insulting to the chimpanzee community? Should anyone take this fat seriously at all? I mean, the share price hasn't moved much. EU regulations prevent him from trying to buy Ryanair in any case. Is this not just a case of two highly successful publicity-hungry businessmen trading immature barbs at each other to get tons of free publicity?
I think that's a very unfair characterization. I do think it's unfair on chimps. You know, it is very good for our bookings. You know, if we can prolong these kind of, we love these PR spats that drive bookings on Ryanair. I'm sure it does wonders for Elon Musk and his X or whatever subscribers he has on X as well to be fighting with somebody. You know, if it's, as long as it doesn't involve safety, and we've never compromised on safety, any of these spats are great for bookings and great for awareness all over Europe.
He's putting humanity on Mars, and you're saying he doesn't know anything about aerodynamics.
I mean, that's pretty self-evident. You know, his claim is that there is no aerodynamic drag by putting aerials on top of, you know, which comes as a great surprise to both Boeing and Airbus, who have spent literally 100 years refining the aerodynamics of aircraft. I mean, we're fitting little winglets on the side of our, you know, Scimitar winglets on the side of the wings of our aircraft at a cost of, you know, a couple EUR 100,000 . They save about 2%-3%. They improve. Tiny little amounts of improvements in fuel drag result in very significant fuel savings. Tiny impediments like aerials hanging off aircraft would add to costs. We're very happy to continue the controversy. I welcome, I think I welcome the accusation that I'm a chimp.
I think it's somewhat unfair on the chimp community, but chimp chump, as long as it increases Ryanair bookings through January, February, and March, it's all good fun and entertainment. Yes, sir.
If you describe X as a cess pit, in style of Elon Musk, do you think X would be less of a cess pit if it was led by somebody called Ryan and who would your preferred Ryan be?
Look, I mean, I have very little time. I do believe social media, X in particular, is a cess pit. I'm not a member, don't never have subscribed, don't participate in it. I find my personal objection to social media is anonymity. I mean, we have numerous examples of, you know, people being, Simon Harris's family being threatened anonymously on these things. You know, and you go through enormous. I fail to understand why, if you want to put something up on social media, you put it up under your own name. You know, I hear this nonsense defense, oh, in Iran, you know, not in America, not in Europe. Your freedom of speech is protected in the U.S. and in Europe. I fundamentally disagree. I believe governments should now legislate, both in Europe and in the U.S., to remove anonymity.
Post away to your heart's content, but put it out under your own name. If you want to slag off politicians or if you want to, you know, make false claims about safety, I mean, we had this originally, earlier on, back in the website days, you know, people were posting stuff on anonymous websites claiming that Ryanair was unsafe and, you know, he was a pilot of 23. We went through the California courts and found out eventually it was some 17-year-old in Navan sitting in his PJs, you know, making up this stuff. I would just remove anonymity and, you know, people have freedom of speech, but you have to be responsible for what you say. I fail to understand why you have things like X, and it's not the only social media which protects anonymity, which gives all these keyboard warriors the right.
I think the most recent controversy with Grok, you know, undressing children or undressing women is frankly offensive. I don't understand why governments don't make it illegal. That's nothing to do with freedom of speech. Women and children, the occasional man, I presume as well, should be protected from not having your images nudified. There's enough porn out there for those who want to watch porn. You know, I think it is a social media and, you know, things that enable nudification or pedophilia or, you know, child abuse, and there's lots of cases of that should be outlawed. The easiest way to do it is remove anonymity. Yes.
Michael, I was previously out on this in another room like this with you before, and you referred to Catherine Martin and Eamon Ryan about two years ago as dunces. You led a big campaign with them having Dunce caps on. Do you think people are thinking you're getting a bit of a taste of your own medicine now with Elon coming for you?
I don't think so. I mean, firstly, we were entirely vindicated. Both of them lost their seats at the subsequent election. I think the, you know, we are now living with the consequences of five years of green failure. Road transport Dublin is the most congested city in Europe. For five years with an aviation policy in Ireland that, you know, allegedly promotes growth in traffic, tourism, and jobs, we had a cap at Dublin Airport. I think the Irish electorates have had their say and clearly agree with me. I'm not always right, but if somebody wants to have a pop at me, I'm all up for it. Shoot away. As I said, I have 14-ish children, so there is nothing that Elon Musk can say to me that my teenage kids haven't already said to me.
If it results in a bit more PR for Ryanair or helps us to promote a world-leading seed sale during the dark months, weeks two, three, and four of January, it's great. I more than welcome it. I'm well able to take my own medicine, so, you know.
Let me just ask you, would you welcome somebody like Elon Musk as a shareholder in the company? Would you call today on Starlink and Elon Musk to sponsor basically a trial run of the technology on board? If it was successful, would you consider using it, or is it going to be hard to gauge if people are using it for free?
Look, firstly, we welcome all shareholders on our share register. Now, obviously, we have an obligation to have a majority to remain EU-owned and controlled. It would not be possible for Elon Musk, even if he wants to, to acquire Ryanair. I would certainly encourage him to invest in Ryanair. I think it's one of the best airline investments. In fact, I think it's one of the best investments out there. What's the second part of the question, Fergus? Sorry.
Just in relation to, are you asking for a trial run basically today?
No, no, no. Look, we have had discussions with all of the Wi-Fi providers, you know, and the bigger ones, Amazon, Starlink, Vodafone. They're all excellent systems. You know, I don't have any issue. I would be about to say publicly, I think Starlink is a terrific system. The economics of putting it on board short-haul aircraft where we on our customer base don't believe they will pay for it are prohibitive. I mean, we tried this. There was a good example about 10 years ago when we put these in-flight entertainment systems on board, these kind of, you know, we had the glorified PCs and we were renting them out. I thought this would be the greatest thing since sliced bread. You know, we wouldn't be able to keep them stocked.
At the same time, we put on lottery tickets, which I thought was the greatest stupidity known to humankind. Nobody would ever buy that rubbish. I think the onboard in-flight entertainment systems lasted about two months, and the lottery tickets are still going strong 10 years later. You know, we would always be happy to trial these things. You know, when you start, and it's not something that, it's not like, you know, we can roll these out on board and put them on the trolleys on board the aircraft. For us to refit these aircraft, we take the aircraft out of service to refit aerials on them. This is a huge, you take the aircraft out of service. It's a huge capital expenditure to fit this technology onto the aircraft. You have a fuel drag going forward.
If the trial does not work, you then take the aircraft out of service. You have to, this is not simple. You know, if you start playing around or drilling holes in aircraft fuselages that are there, it is very expensive. It is technically difficult. If it results in a fuel drag, it is a, you know, something we would never go near. We are very happy and we are continuing to have discussions with Starlink, with Amazon, with Vodafone about the possibility of doing it, but only in a way where it will lower our costs. Those discussions will continue. We would not rule it out at any stage. Yes, sir.
For your results next week, is there anything we can expect to see now? Would post-tax profits go around EUR 5 billion? Is that a realistic target?
No, as you know, because we have third quarter results on Monday, we're in a closed period. Can't say anything about results or guidance or anything else. It'll all be dealt with on Monday when hopefully our seat sale with Elon Musk will have successfully concluded and this contract will have blown over. Yes, sir.
You said that X is a cess pit. Are you comfortable with Ryanair maintaining an account and posting there or giving away? You said it's a private one.
No, sorry, no. I said all social media in my view is a cess pit. I wouldn't confine it just to X. There's worse than X out there. Am I happy for Ryanair to be on these? Yes, I am. You know, we have to be out there, whether it's on Facebook or Instagram or God help us. We're on TikTok. We have one of the biggest corporate accounts on TikTok, which I think personally is the greatest amount of rubbish I've ever seen. I don't see much of it. Talking airplanes, Jesus. Is this what the world is coming to? If that's where you can reach the younger generation, that's fine. On all of these sites, we post on Ryanair. We post under our own name. If we say something wrong, we're responsible for it.
What I think should be stopped and what governments should tackle, both at European and US level, is remove the anonymity. I have no difficulty with social media as long as everybody's posting under their own names. I think it's fundamentally wrong that people are out there with all the various scandals, whether it's nudification or child pornography or suicidal ideation, whatever that is. Do it under your own name and fine. At least you're maintaining and protecting freedom of speech. Stop this thing where keyboard warriors can use anonymity to cut into death threats at politicians. Like nobody deserves that kind of stuff. Female celebrities who are nudified on these things, they don't deserve that. We need to have a bit more common sense this day. When governments need to be frozen, ooh.
Now, I'm not surprised our government is frozen because Micheál Martin is useless anyway. You know, with a 20-seat majority, 15 months later, he still hasn't scrapped a stupid cap that he's completely ignored already. You know, we need to be much tougher. He's out there in Davos today passing around the Ferrero Rochers with representatives from X and all the other American social media companies. He needs to carry a big stick and do something. Europe should be doing something about removing anonymity from social media and trying to tidy that crap up.
Michael.
Yes.
Have you had any direct contact with Elon Musk since the spat? What do you think his motivation is?
I have no direct contact with Elon Musk. I am not, as you will know, on X. I do not think I have any way of reaching him. I have no reason to be in contact with Elon Musk. What is his motivation? I feel like he rants and raves on X. I think it is good for him promoting X and his own views on X. We are very happy to respond in kind on the Ryanair X platform. If he wants to call me an idiot, you know, he would not be the first, and he certainly will not be the last to call me an idiot or a retarded twat. If it helps to boost Ryanair sales, you can insult me all day, every day. Eddie Wilson as well, who is, you know, readily insultable too, although somewhat younger and more attractive than me.
Do you despair for humanity, Michael?
No, I am optimistic for humanity, John. We are bringing low-fare air travel to many more millions of European citizens in the next eight years. Instead of carrying 200 million passengers a year, we'll be carrying 300 million passengers a year, which is one of the great successes of the single market and European Union. You know, Europe spends far too much time pulling wool out of its own navel instead of, you know, crowing about its successes. The single market in Europe and the deregulation of airline has been one of the stellar success stories of the European Union. In America today, you know, the cheapest airfares are north of $100. We originally started by copying the formula of Southwest Airlines, who had $10 airfares. Last year, their average airfare was about $130. Last year, Ryanair's average airfare was EUR 45.
We wiped the floor in terms of competitiveness with American air travel. Now, America has a lead in AI. America has a lead in IT. When it comes to air travel, Europe wipes the floor. That does not mean that Ursula von der Leyen, you know, should not be doing something on reforming ATC, you know, a level playing field on environmental taxation. As the Draghi report highlighted, there is much to be done. She is not much use either. We will continue to campaign for further reform. No, I look forward with nothing but enthusiasm for humanity and the human race if we could just move the kids a little bit more off social media. They will adapt to that.
I remember when I was young here in the late 1960s, early 1970s, and we used to watch, I think, about three hours of television in the evening. RTÉ would come on at about six o'clock, one station, black and white. We would watch Wanderly Wagon and a few other programs. My parents, grandparents thought, your heads will be fried. Oh, you're watching too much television, you know. Now you have 24-hour television, and the kids are on wall-to-wall social media.
Do you think we should follow Australia's rules and try and ban it for?
I think anybody trying to ban social media to under 16s is wasting your time. You may as well be, I can't remember what it was, trying to stop the tide coming in. You know, 16-year-old kids, 14-year-old kids will wind their way around a ban faster than Ryanair seats are selling out today on today's seat sale. You know, the politicians in their 40s and 50s imposing bans on under 16-year-olds will be, in relation to phone access or social media, will be hopelessly ineffective. I do believe, however, that one of the ways, rather than trying to ban something, if you really want to ban something, ban anonymity on social media. Force people and all of the internet companies know who's posting, but they should be posting under whatever it is, their own name or their own account names.
It would clean up a lot of the crap on social media.
Is Conor?
Sorry, I didn't come back to you. Conor.
Is the drag on Starlink worse than the others or better? Or do you have any sense of that? I mean, has anybody cracked it? Do you think somebody will eventually or probably not?
Look, technology will ultimately crack this thing. I'm sure we'll get to a 6G and an 8G and a 10G eventually. I, you know, I have no doubt that instead of putting aerials on the external of the fuselage, we'll be able to fit an aerial in the internal of the, I don't know, in the front or the rear galley or something of the baggage hold. Like it will, technology will ultimately get there. We live in a hyper-connected world, and people will ultimately have free access to Wi-Fi on board short-haul aircraft. I have no doubt the technology will get there, which is why we continue to be in dialogue with Amazon, with Starlink, with Vodafone on this. It will come. We cannot see a way at the moment where the model anybody will pay for.
I mean, even if you look at the long-haul airlines, you know, the Lufthansas and the Aer Lingus, big song and dance, but you know, it's free Wi-Fi access now. I've traveled on Aer Lingus across the Atlantic, and the Wi-Fi access isn't great at the moment anyway. Even if it was free, I'm not sure it would be dramatically improved. It is coming, and the technology will keep improving.
You're waiting until it doesn't need an external aerial?
We're waiting until one, we can get it sponsored or guaranteed that it doesn't, that it becomes some sort of, you know, that it doesn't have a cost penalty for us. Two, that we can, we and together with our partners can give it away for free. I think people will genuinely use it. I mean, you know, use lots of places where you go to hotels or you're going through places where, you know, you can have free Wi-Fi access, but they want your email address. Maybe you do something like that, and that gets more people on board with their internet address. There are lots of ways, but I think ultimately the technology and the commercial agreements will result in free Wi-Fi on board short-haul aircraft as well. Simon, you're very welcome to Dublin.
Good morning.
We hope you flew Ryanair.
I did fly Ryanair.
Excellent.
That's why I arrived at quarter past 10.
No, that was it. Cancel his return flight, will you?
Do you think inadvertently that Ryanair might be fueling smartphone addiction because it's now three months since you said you've got to check in with your smartphone? How's that going?
No, I mean, already before we started that in November, we had about 80% of passengers checking out smartphones. That number is now up to about 98%-99%. I hasten to add the other 1.5% are getting their paper. We are printing the paper boarding pass for them free of charge at the airports as long as they have checked in online. No, are we fueling smartphone addictions? I do not think so. Ours are transactional. If people are traveling with us, it is all done online. You know, we think that is the way of the future. Thank you for flying all the way to Dublin to ask that super really intelligent question.
This is Begley at Dublin. Good morning. I've got a compliment. Any plans to maybe purchase a Tesla?
To what? Purchase a Tesla. For you to purchase a Tesla? No, absolutely not. I live in Mullingar, 50 mi from Dublin. And my favorite mode of transport is a Landini tractor. So we're not at the electrification stage yet. Eddie, I think, is the proud owner of a Tesla.
No, not a Tesla.
Oh, yeah.
What is it?
There's no support for Elon Musk and his social media website or his electric cars here.
Michael, when is your next meeting with X?
What?
A meeting with X at all?
I've never had a meeting. I don't think we've ever had a meeting with X. I mean, we've had meetings with Starlink on fitting the aircraft with Wi-Fi. We've no reason to meet with X. I mean, someone said Ryanair does have an X account. I think we are sending around to the ex-Dublin offices this morning a free ticket for Elon Musk as part of our Big Idiot Seat Sale. I would hope that I've included myself and him in this Big Idiot Seat Sale. I suspect he's a bigger idiot than me, nevertheless, he probably thinks I'm a bigger idiot than him.
Are you going to the X office today or no?
No, I've an airline to run. We are hand-delivering the free ticket around there. I'm sure there'll be something posted on our social media accounts later on today.
Michael.
Yes, sir.
What do you make of the handling of the Kenny Jacobs situation?
Of the who?
Kenny Jacobs.
I don't know the detail of it, and I'm not in a position to comment, really. All I would say is, you know, it seems clear that Kenny's error appears to be that he's upset some people in Fingal County Council and some bureaucrats in the Department of Transport. I think every one of us on a daily basis should get up and say that the first thing we will do today is to upset people working for county councils and certainly useless bureaucrats in the Department of Transport. I imagine that the, you know, if he is replaced, the job description for the next leader of Dublin Airport will be, please don't upset Fingal County Council, or they might write to the Department of Transport and complain about you. I mean, we have much bigger issues to fight.
I don't think he's done a particularly good job at Dublin Airport. You know, he championed this ludicrous tunnel, EUR 220 million, a tunnel under the taxiway, out to nowhere. It's a tunnel to take people out to where the cargo aircraft are. Now, the parcels don't need tunnels. You know, they can drive around the outside of the aircraft. It is more of the kind of gold plating. They want to waste this kind of money so that the regulator will give them more further increases in fees. We live on an island in the periphery of Europe. It is vital that Ireland continues to provide efficient facilities and low-fare access on and off this island now that we finally got rid of the green lunatics.
You know, the idea that we're all going to be cycling to Brussels or, you know, like some of the famous green MEPs getting trains to the U.K. and boats to the U.K. We don't have time to have green MEPs may have three days to waste getting to Brussels, but the rest of the world doesn't. I think this situation is not, I regret the situation he personally finds himself in. I think it's a bit of a mess, but it seems to be a mess that is caused by criticizing those in Fingal County Council, you know, who are presiding over this stupid and illegal cap. I think the much greater danger for Ireland is that, you know, if Aer Lingus flights could well be blocked from landing in New York, Micheál Martin might well be blocked from going to the White House in March.
You will see this legislation passed within 24 hours. For 13 months, Micheál Martin, and it's in the program for government, we will scrap this cap, quote, as soon as possible. Thirteen months ago, you know, with a 20-seat majority. It's not like they've been busy passing other legislation last year. This government does very little, but it's led by somebody who spends far too much time being wheeled around abroad, meeting global leaders, which would be fine as long as you were having a cabinet meeting here at 8:30 A.M. on a Monday morning and getting stuff done. He wanders in at about 11:00 A.M. on a Tuesday and then disappears to Davos for a couple of days.
Michael, if Ireland qualified for the World Cup next year, will Ryanair consider putting on flights for the States and Mexico?
There are very few things on which I could be truly certain about. One, we won't be putting on flights to the US. Two, I'm fairly sure Ireland won't qualify for the World Cup anyway. Which is why I urge everybody, keep booking, everybody should be booking your short-haul holidays to Europe in June and July because don't worry, Ireland won't be in the World Cup.
Do you think there'll be a trade war between the U.S. and the EU? If so, how do you think that'll affect price and costs and so on?
I mean, honestly, none of us know. I think it is time for Europe to stand up to the U.S. I think, you know, if Trump threatens Europe with tariffs, Europe should respond in like measure. Trump will chicken out, tackle. He generally does. You know, Europe is a big wealthy economy with the second largest trading bloc in the world after the U.S. economy, and we need, Europe needs to get its act together. How do I think it would affect our business? Who knows? I certainly do not know. I do not think a trade war would last very long given the amount of American businesses that are based here in Europe, given the amount that Europe imports from America and vice versa. You know, we have to have a more belligerent foreign policy towards certainly the Trump administration.
We would hope that eventually common sense will prevail. I mean, I think if you look at Trump, he is, at the end of the day, interested in doing business. He certainly has midterm elections coming in November. He certainly wants the U.S. economy to be doing well. I do not think Trump, eight months out from midterm elections, can afford to have a trade war with Europe. You know, it is absolutely imperative. I mean, you know, we have all grown up in the 80 years post the Second World War where, thanks to NATO and certainly thanks to free trade, the world is a much wealthier place. You know, we should continue that. As a big importer of American aircraft, we are the largest investor in American aircraft outside of North America. We have owned a fleet of 630 Boeing aircraft.
We've ordered another 300. They make great aircraft. I am a huge supporter of America. It has done wonders for free trade. It has done wonders for the promotion of democracy. These things will pass. You know, Europe does need to get its act together. If Trump wants to have a row with Europe, let's have a row right back.
Are you confident Boeing would eat the tariffs?
Pardon me?
Are you confident that Boeing would eat any tariffs?
I'm not. Again, none of us know. Certainly during the last, I mean, generally speaking, aviation, aircraft and engines have been excluded from most previous tariff instruments. The Europeans are big importers of Boeing aircraft. The American airlines, particularly on the long-haul side, are big importers of Airbus aircraft. You know, if you look at the number of jobs in America, Boeing, GE, the engine side, huge numbers of American jobs depend on aviation exports. Aircraft and engine exports are one of the biggest export manufacturing exports in the U.S. Similarly here in Europe into the U.S. as well. I would hope from a selfish point of view that if there is, A, that there won't be a tariff trade war. If there is a trade war, aircraft and engines will be exempt.
We take delivery of our last four aircraft from Boeing in February. We do not have another aircraft delivery until spring of 2027 when hopefully we get the first of the great new MAX 10 aircraft.
Is there anything in that contract for the MAX 10s that allows you to alter the contract in any way if something like tariffs have been imposed?
We would never comment on the contents of those contracts. They're entirely confidential. Next question.
Michael, where do you see fares going this summer?
At the moment, we believe fares are likely to rise 3% or 4%, you know, some small single digit. But that's our, you know, normal thing. They may level out or fall if fuel prices keep falling. Again, I think one of the things that I think Trump has focused on in advance of the midterms in November will be driving down oil prices and driving down interest rates in North America. Thus, you have the row with the Federal Reserve. And certainly every attempt there with the removal of the Venezuelan president to boost oil supply and maybe drive down gas prices. But, you know, that's me merely speculating.
If oil prices fall or continue to fall, and there is generally an expectation of a supply glut this year, I think a lot of those oil price savings will be passed on in the form of lower fares. It is hard to tell. The overriding kind of dynamic in Europe at the moment is constrained supply of aircraft, constrained seat supply. Even we this year can only grow, and we're taking 29 aircraft from Boeing this year. We're only going to grow our seat supply by about 3%. It is very tight. You have most of Europe's Airbus are still going through the Pratt & Whitney engine repairs.
There is very little capacity out there, which is why, again, we urge the Irish government, you know, when Micheál Martin, drag Micheál Martin back from Davos today, kicking and screaming and telling them to pass the legislation so that with that spare capacity, we can actually put some growth into continue to grow here in Ireland and continue to grow in Europe.
You can talk about these capacity limits and the fact that they're pushing up fares for about like half a decade. When do you see?
I don't know, about two years. Jesus, Barry, we've had COVID and a war in Ukraine.
I'm going to buy the tickets.
Book earlier. There's available at EUR 16.99 as we speak today. Clearly, you're not an idiot. You wouldn't qualify for this seat sale.
When do you see the capacity constraints eased?
I mean, all of the indicators at the moment is there will be no easing in capacity or kind of upturning of capacity above kind of GDP growth before 2030. Both Boeing and Airbus are hugely backlogged on deliveries. You know, and Boeing still has to get the MAX 7 and the MAX 10 certified. They're pretty confident they'll get it certified later this year. Even if they do start those deliveries, with the exception of Ryanair, no other European airline has any significant aircraft or orders to be now in 2030. Wizz had, but they've delayed most of them, probably because they can't afford to buy them or they have nowhere to fly them. There's very little capacity. There's a backlog of orders at the moment coming from the Middle East.
Riyadh Air wants to buy 100, 200 short-haul aircraft, but can't get any before 2030. The Turks want to buy another 500 aircraft. The Indians want more aircraft. All of the demand, and the Chinese haven't ordered a Boeing aircraft for about seven years. There is a huge backlog of demand. There could be some geopolitical disruption over Greenland, Ukraine, Taiwan, God knows what's going on in the world, and the world feels a very uncertain place. That might, you know, historically, when the airlines are doing well, usually something comes out of left field, whether it's 9/11 or a Gulf War, that sets back air travel. Based on everything we see this year, we think it's reasonable to assume we expect to grow our traffic from 207 million last year to about 215 million in the next 12 months.
We think there might be a modest 2%, 3%, 4% increase in airfares, but we have not a clue yet. I think it is important, Barry, like you see where that capacity is going. Like yesterday we were in Italy, they are growing by 9%.
And Albania?
Michael got to go down to Albania yesterday. They're growing by almost 60% this year with Ryanair aircraft and 9% in Italy, 11% in Morocco, 3% in Spain. We're going nowhere in Ireland because there's no decision on that cap, you know. When you have no capacity growth, you're going to have fares rising, you know. I mean, I was down in Tirana in September announcing that we're opening a base, three aircraft base in Tirana in March. In September, the problem in Tirana was they have one terminal building that serves only eight aircraft. Said it's too small. Wizz have eight aircraft based in Tirana. Said you need to double the size of the terminal building. He said, don't worry, we'll do it. We're going to start in September and we'll finish in March. He said, no, you won't. It could take two years, sir.
If you're Micheál Martin, it could take three or four years. They start in September. They've already finished the building. I was down there yesterday again announcing a fourth base aircraft. The building is built. They're just doing the internal fit-out. That could be done in five months in Albania, which contrasts with Micheál Martin doing nothing, just a scrap of bloody cap in 13 months. Like some governments get it and get on with it. Some governments, sadly led by Micheál Martin, do nothing. Martin don't get it and do nothing. Simon.
Yes. Now, just going back to Elon Musk, you've given him a free Ryanair ticket.
Yes.
I'm sure he'll be very grateful. Are you going to give him any advice on which airline he should buy?
I know it would be inappropriate for us to give him any investment advice. I think he's running polls on X, though, where he's getting lots of advice from lots of idiots on X. As I said publicly, we welcome everybody investing. Anybody who wants to buy shares in Ryanair is free to do so. We're a publicly traded company listed on the European and the US stock exchanges. A non-European, we would politely and respectfully point out that a non-European cannot acquire or control a European airline.
Michael, you've spoken to COMAC before. Given the geopolitical environment and whether that persists for however long that persists, does it get you to thinking at all strategically about, you know, where you need to position yourself in terms of future aircraft orders and possibly reducing your reliance on Boeing if the environment we're in continues and we end up having, you know, longer-term tariffs or whatever? Would you align yourself more closely maybe with COMAC and see what they're doing? Would you be interested in placing an order with them?
I mean, look, we have previously talked to COMAC. We signed a design agreement with COMAC back around 2014, 2015. The problem and the challenge for COMAC is they're producing very few aircraft. Like Boeing is now talking, Boeing are rumored yesterday to be launching a production line for 737s up in Everett. They've only ever made them in Renton. That would increase Boeing's monthly production from about 43 aircraft to about 65 aircraft. COMAC last year, I think, built about 60 aircraft in the whole year. The problem is the bigger, the more COMAC grows, and COMAC is due with the Chinese boys, and they're basically sub-assembling an A320. All of the avionics, all of the engines, all of the real complicated parts are all European. It is GE engines or Safran engines. It is Honeywell avionics. It's Collins avionics.
The faster or the more COMAC grows its production capacity, the more they draw from the already constrained supply chains for Airbus aircraft here in the U.S. and in Europe. COMAC is not going to come to anybody's rescue before certainly the early or mid-2030s. The aircraft they're making at the moment is only 180 seats, so it's too small for us. I have no doubt, you know, we're placing aircraft orders here. We ordered 300 Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft back during COVID. Those deliveries are due to come to us from 2027 to 2034. We are the best positioned airline in the world for controlled capacity growth and growth of low-fare air traffic for the next decade. Now, there is still an issue. Boeing still needs to get those aircraft certified and delivered. They're pretty confident.
I think under the new management, certainly led by Stephanie Pope and Kelly Ortberg, I think Boeing are doing very impressive things in turning the business around. Even if I did not want to order Boeing, if I went to Airbus today and said, you know, your aircraft are more expensive, but I want to order 100, which I would like to do for the Lauda Europe fleet. We have 30 A320s in Lauda Europe, but they are coming up to the end of their lease in 2028 and 2029. Airbus cannot deliver me a narrow body aircraft or an A320 or 321 until about 2032 or 2033. There is no aircraft available. Thinking strategically, we are in a very fortunate position to be able to have controlled growth out to 2034. We would certainly need to do another aircraft order in the early 2030s.
The chances of there not being some unforeseen downturn in aviation or some unforeseen downturn in the world between now and 2030, the early 2030s are, I think, zero. Because there's always some catastrophe visiting on the airline industry every three, four, or five years. The last one was COVID. We emerged out of COVID, and then Putin illegally invaded Ukraine, something that, you know, I disagree fundamentally with Trump on. You know, I think Trump is right on NATO needing to increase spending. Trump is right on rowing back against environmental taxation. Trump is right on an awful lot of his economic policies. He is historically wrong on Ukraine and not criticizing Russia. He is historically wrong on tariffs. Tariffs have never succeeded. They have never worked. They will never succeed at work because they increase inflation and the cost of living for ordinary people.
Thinking strategically, we're about as well placed as any airline could be. I would certainly hope that we will be able to pick from maybe three suppliers in the early 2030s, Boeing, Airbus, or COMAC. We have to wait and see what happens between 2026 and 2030 first. Anybody else?
Michael, is Trump right or wrong on Greenland?
Trump is wrong on Greenland. I mean, I think the U.S. has persuasive and real kind of defense concerns on Greenland. If you have, I think do, and they already reached agreement with Denmark and with Greenland after the Second World War. I think they had 12 military or 15 military bases up in or air bases in Greenland. If you want to reopen those bases, I think you'd get nothing but support from NATO and from Denmark. You can't in this world just go in and say, I want Greenland, give it to me. I mean, what would you then say to the Chinese if the Chinese want to go and invade Taiwan? What do you say? I mean, I think he's already historically wrong on Putin just pushes into invades Ukraine in what is clearly an illegal invasion.
I think he is, you know, historically wrong on that as well. Look, people also need to stand back. You know, history has shown us you have American administrations. This administration will last for another three years. There will be midterm elections in the U.S. at the end of this year. I have no idea what the outcome of those midterm elections. If he loses the House or loses the Senate, there will be a dramatic change in U.S. politics. There will be another presidential election in three years' time. There will be another U.S. president. I think Trump gets lots of things right, and he gets a number of things wrong. That's democracy, and he was elected. We, certainly in Europe, have to manage that relationship for the next two or three years.
Where he's wrong, Europe should stand up as a strong trading bloc and tell him he's wrong. Stop trying to pander to him and invite him to dinner when, you know, he wants to. I don't understand why he needs to own Greenland. It's certainly not for some defense or military reasons. Because as a member of NATO and Denmark is a member of NATO, I don't think Denmark or Greenland would have any issue if Trump wanted to invest, reopen those bases in Greenland and invest in Greenland. You don't need to own it for that.
There's been a woeful underinvestment in Ireland's military. Do you think there should be significantly more spent on Ireland's military? Should Ireland consider rethinking its neutrality given what's going on?
I think Ireland has no option but to, you know, I mean, Irish neutrality is a joke, much beloved of the left-wing lunatics in this country. You know, we are a defenseless island on the periphery of Europe. We do not have, are not able to protect either our skies or the seas off our coast. I think Europe will be running out of patience with Ireland on this. I believe Ireland should be a member of NATO. I think Dev was historically wrong in the 1950s, you know, when we should have joined NATO in 1945 and the late 1940s. We would have developed deep-sea submarine ports off the west coast of Ireland. NATO would have built about 25 airports across Ireland. We would have far better infrastructure than we have managed on our own. Dev made the chronic mistake to be, I wanted to be isolationist.
Isolationism has never worked. It did not work in Ireland in the 1950s and 1960s. Did not work in North Korea. It did not work in China during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s either. We live in a world where free trade works. Free trade reduces costs for consumers and increases the wealth of nations and has done so since Adam Smith wrote his treatise in the 1850s. Ireland needs to wise up. We need to generate much more revenue. We do need to increase, significantly increase our defense spending. I would personally think Ireland should be a member of NATO. I do not know how you can be a member of the European Union and not be a member of NATO because either we are going to support Europe when it is under threat as it is currently in Ukraine.
If Putin decides he's going to invade the Baltic states or Finland or Poland, what are we going to do? Oh, sorry, we're neutral. We have to come to the aid and support of our European allies as we should come to the aid and support of our American allies. I have no difficulty with, you know, the left-wing loonies whinging about, you know, us using Shannon Airport. Shannon Airport benefits significantly from US military or the US military using Shannon as a stopover point for its troops, etc. We should encourage that. Anything that annoys the loony left in this country should be actively encouraged. Any other questions?
Are your negotiations for your contract, are they moving along? Are they nearly finalized?
They are moving along at a glacial pace. We have far more impressive things to deal with. I'm already contracted up to 2028, and there's really not much pressure on me or the board to finalize any new arrangements. Like we are dealing with things like the price of oil, Boeing delivery delays. Why can't we get Micheál Martin, and with a 20-seat majority to scrap a cap at Dublin Airport when the Albanians can build, can double the size of their terminal in five months? Really, my contract falls way down the list of issues that need to be addressed. Okay, folks, thank you very much. Appreciate your time and.