Hello, everyone. Welcome to Mavi webcast regarding the last quarter and the financial year 2025. Again, a quick reminder, our financials are reported using IAS 29, financial reporting in hyperinflationary economies. The financial figures in this presentation also have been adjusted according to IAS 29 and are expressed in terms of purchasing power of the Turkish lira as of January 31, 2026. Historical figures for selected key performance indicators is also provided for informational purposes only. I would like to remind you that this presentation is being recorded, and we kindly ask you to review the disclaimer and consider all forward-looking statements and comments in accordance. Our CEO, Cüneyt Yavuz, will be presenting the results now, followed by a Q&A session. Please make sure you keep your microphones muted throughout the presentation. I will leave the floor to Cüneyt Yavuz.
Thank you, Duygu. Hello, everyone. Thank you all for joining us in another year-end webcast. 2025 has been a year shaped by a complex macroeconomic environment in Turkey. Consumer demand has moderated as anti-inflationary policies continue to take effect. In the meantime, competition remains vibrant across both physical retail and online channels. As always, Mavi's focus has remained firmly on what we can control, staying disciplined around our strategic priorities, executing with consistency, and maintaining operational agility to navigate a demanding dynamic market. As in every year-end meeting, I would like to walk you through the key strategic priorities that guided us throughout 2025. Priorities that remain central to who we are as a brand and how we operate as a business. Let's start with our brand positioning and customer acquisition strategy.
At Mavi, our strategy continues to be built around strengthening the Mavi brand while expanding our customer base. We focus on three key areas that support this objective, delivering premium product value, reinforcing our denim leadership, and increasing our lifestyle brand appeal. First, on the product side, we continue to strengthen our lifestyle product portfolio. Our approach remains very clear, offering the right premium quality products at the right price. Through diversified collections and our premium lines such as Mavi Edition, Mavi Black, Pro, Mavi Gold, and Mavi Icon, we are addressing a broad set of customer segments while maintaining strong brand consistency. Second, we continue to reinforce our denim-centric positioning. Jeans remains at the heart of our brand, and our "The Jean is Mavi" positioning underlines that leadership.
We supported our positioning through targeted campaigns promoting our Smoke and Rinse jean collections, highlighting our trendy new fits, silhouettes, and colors, while continuing to innovate in denim with a strong focus on sustainable materials and regenerative cotton. Third, we further strengthen our lifestyle brand appeal, which plays an important role in attracting new and younger customers. Collaborations such as our collection with Kind + Jugend, as well as brand campaigns like Mavi For You, help us build a more distinctive and inspirational brand narrative. In addition, the Mavi-terranean collection continues to support our total look proposition and reinforce our brand storytelling. As a result of these initiatives, we continue to strengthen both our brand equity and our customer base. Mavi remains the clear leader in the jeans category in Turkey with 25% market share, while also maintaining a top-three position in the overall apparel market.
At the same time, our brand continues to resonate strongly with consumers. Today, in Turkey, Mavi has the highest top-of-mind jean brand awareness with over 65% score, highlighting the strong emotional connection we have built with our customers. Importantly, our customer acquisition strategy also continued to deliver strong results. In 2025, we welcomed 1.4 million new customers to the Mavi brand, further expanding our reach and reinforcing our relevance across different customer segments. Let me now move to how we continue to elevate the customer shopping experience across all touchpoints. At Mavi, our approach is to deliver a seamless and consistent experience across both physical retail and digital channels while continuously strengthening our customer-centric culture. Starting with retail, we have been upgrading our store concept to further elevate the in-store experience and strengthen our brand perception.
In 2025, we upgraded 10 stores to our new format and have monitored significant improvements in all store KPIs. At the same time, we have enhanced our organization and field operations model, renewing our Happiest Mavi Customer approach to ensure that customer satisfaction remains at the center of everything we do in our stores. On the digital side, we continue to invest in improving the user experience on mavi.com. Initiatives such as Jean Finder, product recommendation engine, fit analytics, size recommendations, and expanded payment options help make the online shopping journey easier and more personalized for our customers. We also expanded our delivery flexibility with the launch of Pudo, parcel locker services across more than 1,000 locations in nine cities.
Finally, we continue to strengthen our customer experience culture through a data-driven approach. We systematically measure customer satisfaction across both retail and online channels through Net Promoter Score, Customer Satisfaction Score, and Customer Effort Score surveys, allowing us to continuously improve our processes and service quality. By combining these insights with customer journey mapping across all touchpoints, we are able to further enhance the end-to-end customer experience and ensure that we consistently meet and exceed customer expectations. Building on our focus on customer experience, we continue to strengthen our retail, digital, and omnichannel capabilities in an integrated way. Starting with retail, we expanded our physical footprint with over 4% retail space growth, including net eight new store openings and 10 store expansions in Turkey.
Internationally, we initiated our retail journey in the U.S., opening 11 stores since August 2025, which is an important step in our long-term global growth strategy. On the digital side, Mavi Online continues to grow strongly. Our Mavi app user base reached 5.2 million active users, while mobile remains the dominant channel, accounting for 93% of traffic and 84% of online sales. We also expanded our geographic reach online, launching marketplace sales in five Eastern European countries, further diversifying our international digital presence beyond the MENA region. Finally, our omnichannel capabilities continue to scale up. In-store online sales grew a nominal 76% year-on-year, and we are now able to fulfill online orders from 341 stores. Altogether, our omnichannel initiatives generated close to TRY 1 billion in incremental revenue, highlighting the strength of our integrated channel strategy.
Let me take a couple of minutes to talk about our best-in-class loyalty program, Kartuş, which sits at the core of our growth strategy. Today, Kartuş has approximately 6.1 million members who have been active over the past year, making it one of the largest and most engaged loyalty programs in the Turkish apparel retail. Kartuş is not only a driver of revenue, but also the foundation of our customer insight capabilities. With 83% of our retail sales coming through Kartuş program, we are able to identify and understand the vast majority of our customers and track their behavior across channels. This high level of customer visibility allows us to build very detailed segmentation and personalized engagement strategies. We can segment customers across revenue, channel, category, and product dimensions, enabling much more precise lifecycle management and engagement.
In 2025, we ran more than 300 personalized campaigns, which resulted in 20% growth in customers activated through personalized offers. Another key strength of the program is its ability to attract younger customers, which is critical for the long-term health of the brand. Of the new customers acquired in 2025, 70% were under the age of 35 and 41% were under 25, demonstrating Mavi's strong affiliation with younger generations. To further strengthen this positioning, we launched Kartuş Genç, a dedicated program targeting the 16-24 age segment, offering tailored benefits and communication across multiple channels. The program reached 325,000 members as of the end of 2025 and increased the share of young customers in new customer acquisition by 4 percentage points.
Finally, we are increasingly using AI-driven predictive models to identify key moments in the customer journey and engage customers proactively. These models allow us to identify future Mass Mavi customers, our most valuable segment, who shop roughly twice as frequently as the average customer, and accelerate their transition into the loyal customer. Technology continues to evolve at a very rapid pace, and as Mavi, we are closely following new developments to ensure that we remain at the forefront of the right trends. At the same time, we are building the necessary legal, governance, and operational infrastructure to responsibly support future technology adoption. As of today, we can group our current AI and advanced analytics applications across four main areas. First, trend detection and forecasting, where we use AI to analyze market data, fashion weeks, and social media to identify emerging trends and translate them into product insights.
Second, accelerating the design process, where generative AI tools help transform sketches into visuals and support the penetration of technical product packages. Third, operational efficiency and automation, where AI supports areas such as product content creation, internal knowledge tools for employees, and marketing content production. Finally, predictive customer management, where AI models help us better understand customer behavior and engage with customers more proactively throughout their life cycle. Beyond our commercial and technological priorities, we continue to place strong emphasis on people and culture, which we see as a key driver of our long-term continued success. At Mavi, we are proud of our inclusive organizational structure, where women represent 60% of our workforce. 53% of management and 50% of our board, reflecting our strong commitment to diversity and inclusion.
We also invest heavily in leadership development and talent growth through structured programs such as our 9-Box Talent Framework, employee training programs, and initiatives like Mavi Young Talent and Mavi Next Gen, which help us develop future leaders within the organization. We continue to strengthen our connection with communities and younger generations through community and social impact initiatives, ranging from youth-focused cultural projects to partnership with leading NGOs and social organizations. Together, these efforts reinforce Mavi's position not only as a strong brand, but also as a brand that resonates deeply with younger generations and the communities we serve. Before moving to our financial results, let me briefly touch on sustainability, which remains a core pillar of Mavi's long-term strategy. We were particularly pleased to receive two important global recognitions this year.
Mavi was ranked second on TIME and Statista's list of the World's Best Companies in Sustainable Growth, leading the apparel industry. In addition, for the first time, Mavi was included in S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook 2026 based on our corporate sustainability assessment performance. Being listed among the leading companies globally in sustainability is a strong validation of the long-term work we have been doing in this area. Reflecting our ongoing investments in emission reduction and renewable energy, our net zero targets are now approved by Science Based Targets initiative. Our All Blue program also continued to expand in scale, reaching 31% of total revenue and 68% of denim revenue in 2025. This reflects the increasing integration of sustainable products across our core collections. Finally, we continue to expand our circular economy initiatives, including resale partnerships and social impact collaborations that extend product life cycles and reduce waste.
Together, these initiatives reinforce our commitment to responsible growth while strengthening the long-term resilience of the Mavi brand. At this point, I would like to sincerely thank our teams for their strong ownership, commitment, and consistent execution. With that, let's now move on to review our annual financial results. Consolidated revenue declined 5% year-on-year in 2025, and realized at TRY 47.729 billion, with Turkey retail and online sales both declining 4%. Our EBITDA margin improved 40 basis points versus last year and reached 18.9%, and our net income realized at TRY 2.058 billion with 4.3% net income margin in 2025.
With very strong operational cash generation in the year, our net cash position reached TRY 6.9 million as of year-end. Here, let me briefly highlight two important announcements regarding shareholder returns. First, we will propose to the General Assembly a cash dividend distribution corresponding to 30% of our pre IAS 29 profit, which is equivalent to 58% of our reported distributable profit, including IAS 29 adjustments. Second, in order to further strengthen our corporate governance practices in line with international best standards, our board of directors has decided to cancel all shares repurchased to date, as well as any shares that may be repurchased until the completion of the buyback program. We believe this decision enhances transparency and capital discipline while ensuring that our capital allocation continues to support long-term shareholder value creation. Moving on to review our channel performance.
The softness in demand continued in the last quarter with Turkey retail revenue delivering flat results and Turkey online declining 2%, bringing total Turkey revenues to 1% decline year-on-year in real Turkish lira terms in the fourth quarter. Total Turkey sales was down 4% in 2025. International revenue grew 5.9% in constant currency during the fourth quarter, ending the year with a 2.8% contraction year-on-year. The positive performance of North America business was the main driver of growth in the last quarter. Looking into our Turkey retail business in more detail. In 2025, we opened 14 new stores and closed six stores, bringing our total number of own operated retail stores in Turkey to 360.
We also expanded 10 stores, increasing our total selling space to 197,000 sq m with an average store size of 547 sq m. Although there have been notable delays in our store opening calendar in 2025, we are looking forward to more than bridging this gap in 2026. Expanding and upgrading our store network in Turkey is an important priority for us. We approach these investments with disciplined capital allocation, focusing on projects with strong feasibility and short payback periods. Encouragingly, the stores opened in recent years continue to perform well and contribute positively to our results. On Slide 16, let me briefly touch on our like-for-like performance in Turkey.
In the fourth quarter, nominal like-for-like sales grew 8.8%, while in real terms, sales declined 1.9%, reflecting the continued normalization in consumer demand. Despite this environment, sales volume increased 4.8%, supported by stable traffic. Including the contribution of new sq m, total retail sales volumes grew 6.3% in the quarter. Looking at the full year, like-for-like sales declined 6.7% in real terms and 2.7% in volume terms. While total Turkey retail sales volumes remained broadly flat. Basket size grew 33.7% in nominal Turkish lira terms, reflecting our pricing power as well as change in product mix. Moving on to Slide 17 to review category-based developments in Turkey retail. Category trends were broadly in line with overall performance. Daily sales declined 5%, knits and jerseys 10%, and shirts 12%.
These categories performed particularly weak in the first half of the year, but we witnessed a recovery in all three of these categories since third quarter, with positive volume growth in the second half. Non-denim bottoms, jackets, and accessories were stronger performing categories, with accessories growing 9%, non-denim bottoms growing 1%. Going forward to review our online sales performance. Global online sales, including wholesale partners, accounted for 11.4% of total consolidated revenues in 2025. In Turkey, online sales, consisting solely of direct consumer channels, declined 4% year-on-year, representing 8.8% of total sales in 2025. Within this, revenues contracted 10% on marketplaces while growing 1% on mavi.com. International online sales grew 2% in inflation-adjusted Turkish lira terms, driven by the solid 90% growth of wholesale e-commerce operations.
International mavi.com sales were also strong, with 5.5% growth in constant currency. Overall, online accounted for 36.6% of total international sales. We continue to invest in digital infrastructure and customer experience, maintaining online as a full price channel with margins comparable to retail, while at the same time ensuring competitiveness. Let's move on to review our consolidated financial results. Regardless of the aforementioned external challenges and on consumer purchasing power and increased promotional activity, we were able to expand our already strong growth margins by 270 basis points in the fourth quarter and 70 basis points further in full year, realizing 51% in 2025. This result demonstrates the strength of our operational discipline from accurate planning and flexible sourcing to effective pricing and brand management. Let's now review our EBITDA performance.
In the fourth quarter, despite the 110 basis points negative impact of imputed interest rates, our EBITDA margin improved 280 basis points. The operating expense to sales ratio improved 40 basis points in the quarter, with no operational leverage contribution. With this quarter's strong performance, we ended 2025 with a commendable 18.9% EBITDA margin. Looking into our net income margin performance, the improvement in our operating margins was largely reflected in the profit before tax level. However, net income was significantly impacted by unusually high tax items in the quarter. In particular, the cancellation of inflation accounting in statutory financials resulted in a one-off negative impact of TRY 424 million on net income in Q4, which unfortunately also led to an actual tax cash outflow.
Excluding this impact, adjusted net income reached TRY 276 million in the fourth quarter, corresponding to a 2.3% net income margin. For the full year, adjusted net income totaled TRY 2.482 billion, resulting in a 5.2% net income margin. On Slide 23, we will review our operational cash flow and working capital performance. Throughout the year, we continued to manage inventory and working capital with strong discipline, supported by our dynamic product planning and flexible sourcing strategy, which allow us to adapt quickly to demand conditions while maintaining operational agility. As a result, consolidated inventory ended the year 12% lower in value, while Turkey inventory declined 8% in units compared to the prior year. They importantly consist of entirely fresh, new season products.
This disciplined inventory management also supported strong cash generation. In the fourth quarter alone, we generated TRY 4.5 billion of operational cash flow, bringing total operational cash generation for the year to TRY 8.6 billion. Moving on to the next slide. In 2025, we invested TRY 2.6 billion in capital expenditures, corresponding to a CapEx to sales ratio of 5.5%. Approximately 25% of this amount was a one-off investment related to our new Istanbul office headquarters, which moved into in July 2025. Around 20% of total CapEx, slightly over $10 million, was allocated to our retail investments in the United States. The remaining investments were primarily directed towards store openings, expansions, and renovations, as well as some R&D initiatives in Turkey.
Our net cash position remains very strong at approximately TRY 6.9 billion. As of year-end 2025, we have no outstanding debt in Turkey. Foreign currency debt reflected in our consolidated financials relates solely to our international subsidiaries, which predominantly borrow in their respective local currencies, effectively eliminating foreign exchange risk. Slide 26 is a reminder of our targets for the year 2025 and their realizations. As you may recall, we revised our guidance following our second quarter results in September 2025. Our full year results came broadly in line with these updated expectations. While top line performance was slightly below guidance, partly due to the delays in our sq m growth targets, margin realization came in slightly stronger than anticipated. Finally, in the last page, we provide our guidance for the year 2026.
Looking ahead to 2026, the ongoing policy measures aimed at bringing inflation under control in Turkey are expected to continue weighing on consumer spending. In this environment, our priority will be to stay disciplined around the areas we can influence while continuing to execute on our long-term strategic roadmap. We see 2026 as a critical year in which we plan to step up our investments in our retail footprint in Turkey. These investments are intended to strengthen our already prevalent Turkey market position and ground us for future continued growth. Our focus remains on outperforming the apparel market, strengthening the emotional connection between our customers and the Mavi brand, and delivering consistent results through operational excellence while laying the groundwork for what we expect to be a stronger trading environment in 2027.
Supporting these aspirations, we plan to open net 15 stores, expand 15 stores, and upgrade 30 stores in Turkey. We will continue our retail journey in the USA by opening six more retail stores, all in best-in-class shopping malls and premium locations. With that, we expect 5% + or 5% ±1% consolidated revenue growth and 18% ±0.5% EBITDA margin on a reported basis, including inflation accounting. We target to maintain our net cash position, and we plan to invest around 6% of revenue on capital expenditure. As always, let me say some final words on the current quarter and the trading environment. Generally, being a soft demand month, in February, we achieved 27% growth in Turkey retail sales.
The first two retail weeks of March show a 74% growth in Turkey retail with the positive impact of Ramadan holiday sales. This 74% adjusted for the holiday calendar sales growth probably comes around something like 26%. At this point, I am more than happy to take your questions. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please raise your hands, and we will call your name. If you prefer to type your questions, you may use the chat screen. For anyone dialing via audio, we can take your questions last. We already have our first question coming from Eren Ardıç. Go ahead, Eren.
For the presentation and congratulations from the results. I have three questions. The first one is, as you continue to expand in the U.S., how do store level metrics, such as payback periods, EBITDA margins, and growth performance, compare to Turkey operations? Also, what is a typical initial CapEx per store in the U.S., and how does it differ from Turkey? I would like to ask similar question for your upgraded and renewed stores also. Lastly, what is the share of U.S. operations in 2026 guidance? Thank you.
Great. On a macro level, we plan to come back to you with a U.S. update probably at the end of quarter two, because I'm just this I'm mentioning as a macro picture, because by then we will have opened these stores for quite a few months, and we will have more data coming in. I will try and answer all the questions that you posed in terms of EBITDA, payback, et cetera. The U.S. payback in Turkey, typically, we target less than two years, and we at times come close to a year, sometimes 18 months in terms of payback periods when we open up a new store. The case in the U.S. when we started this, our strategic roadmap is more in the three-year vicinity. It is.
It will take a longer period of time for the paybacks to come in and deliver results. In terms of CapEx, in Turkey, we pay around $700 per sq m in terms of when we make investments. The U.S. is a bit more expensive. It's more like $1,000-$1,500 CapEx for each and every store.
The good news in terms of the total U.S. picture, despite this long time in terms of ROI and CapEx investments and also marketing investments, we are part of the TURQUALITY program, which helps us, for the foreseeable couple of years, to get paybacks in terms of some of the CapEx we are investing, half of the marketing investment we are putting in, and also, we are getting a lot of brand support, as we open up new businesses. That's why I want to come back within six months to you guys to look at it from a normalized version when the stores are up and running and we have 15 stores, because that's the board decision we made.
We allocated a certain amount of money that we believe that we could handle, and we made a conscious choice to go to eight shopping malls across the U.S. so that we could have a presence and a better understanding of how and which parts of U.S. is responding to the Mavi proposition. Therefore, it's too early to say, you know, how things are going, but all I can say is U.S. is an interesting sort of bet on Mavi Turkey's side. We have the cash, we have the history in the U.S., and therefore we find it important that we, you know, we have the retail know-how also, that we can translate some of this into a success in the U.S. market. Did I hit all the answers? I don't know. Eren, if I missed something, please do.
Share of U.S. revenue.
Uh, share of-
Thank you.
Yeah. Share of U.S. revenue, just for I mean, as you know, 90%+ is Turkey, and share of total, North America or U.S. is more like 5%. The other 5% is split half half between Russia and Europe. There is also a bit of export markets also included, which is Middle East, and, you know, Georgia, Azerbaijan, et cetera. Thank you.
Thank you. One more question. Could you elaborate on your Turkey stores which upgraded or renewed also?
Upgraded stores which? I missed the last part.
Like store-based metrics, like U.S.
Elaborate on the new-
Okay.
Upgraded stores.
Yeah. With the upgraded stores, couple of things. First, wherever and whenever we can, we are taking current stores and trying to grow them in sq m. If we cannot for certain reasons, we are of course still applying the upgraded version. These stores typically have better product turn, faster product turn. So we are getting a great benefit in terms of total revenue that is being generated. We are also seeing both units per transaction and frequency going up in both of these factors going up as we open up the new stores.
I think what is gonna be more interesting for all of us is, as you can see this year, we're putting a lot of push and trying to do a bit of a revenge comeback from last year when we were a little falling behind versus what we had planned for. Therefore, as I explained just a while ago, the top-line growth, we missed it a bit, so I'm not happy from that perspective. As a team now, we've geared up, and we have really a good game plan, and we have the cash, we have the investment plans, and we have the locations sorted out and agreed with shopping malls. This year you'll see a mega push in terms of sort of see it as a new car model coming out.
This whole significant percentage of our sales revenue generating stores will have gone through upgrades, refurbishments, and/or expansions or new store openings at a bigger sq m. You may recall that we started just a couple of years ago, we were at 500 sq m. Now we are at 550 on average total sq m. The last two shops, for instance, we opened up one in İzmir Optimum and one in Forum İstanbul, are more than 1,200 sq m. It's a mega jump in terms of what we are achieving. What we are observing is OpEx ratios are coming down, traffic is going up, sell-through is going up, basket size is going up, number of transactions are going up, and also frequency is going up.
All the indicators are very good, and it's also giving our category teams a boost in morale because they also want to expand and capture more of the wardrobe of the customer. Therefore, we are also excited from that perspective also because we can extend our line extensions, staying true to our casual roots of course, and our denim heritage, but also expanding the wardrobe so that we can sell and put on offer a great variety of products. Thank you.
Thank you.
Ali Kerem, we can have your question now.
Yes. I think you've touched on the issue a little bit, but what I was wondering is, you know, you had good cash flow, especially in the fourth quarter, given the market conditions, good margins. But as you also said, the sales side is a bit softish, and yet you are guiding for a 5% real growth for next year. What would be the key catalyst for that, sluggish sales trend to turn around?
Because it sometimes gets a bit distracted in the total presentation. We were able to grow our volume last year, roughly 6% in total. Despite not having opened up a lot of stores, we did expand and open up new stores, which contribute roughly 3%-4% to our base, moving into this year. Also, early on in this year, we've opened up quite a few big stores.
We've been really rushing really hard ahead of the Bayram sales in January, early February, to open up these 1,000 sq m-1,200 sq m stores and refurbishing some of the key stores, as fast as we can. If you look at the total momentum we have and do the math in terms of what KPIs are showing us, indicating us of what we can achieve when we do this transformation, it actually translates into a healthy growth in volume growth, for this coming year. The first half of the year will be I mean, we'll be busy, but the second half will be even busier because there are two Bayrams. We are also holding off some of the investments because we don't want to close down stores during these high, Bayram sales periods and pre, let's say, summer sales coming in.
Starting July, August, again, there will be another push in terms of opening new stores and expanding and refurbishing a lot of our stores. When we do the math, looking at base and categories and customer trends, we are feeling quite okay. Some of the sluggishness versus last year, again, in terms of what we guided and what we delivered, we missed out. I mean, you may recall, we started the year saying we will open up roughly 20 stores, and we ended up around right. I mean, that was sort of a major disaster, something that we didn't expect. From that perspective, we really are happy. I think, in the last quarter onwards, we've been really working hard to do, as I mentioned, a revenge comeback.
I think with the products we have, the portfolio, the marketing campaigns we are preparing, I think we can deliver this. Of course, there's one caveat that we can always discuss about this. When we finalized all of this budget that got the approval from the board, this Ukraine war had not started. At this point in time, so far, as some numbers are indicating in terms of pre-Ramadan holiday sales and the first six weeks of the year, sales are going as per our budget and plan, so we still remain optimistic in terms of what we can deliver. There will be, of course, contribution coming from U.S. and international. Remember, there will be all of a sudden, almost more than 10 stores in the U.S., retail stores, that was not in the base.
That will also. It's not a major, critical. I mean, it's not the biggest part of our business. In terms of top-line growth, they will also help contribute to the top-line growth this year.
Perfect. Thank you very much.
We have a question from Melis on the chat screen. I will read it. Can you give some hints about the thought IAS 29, 2026 revenue, EBITDA margin, and effective tax rate guidance? With respect to annual net addition to retail space in Turkey, can you provide percentage in terms of new stores and store expansion? Regarding recent unrest in Middle East and global implications, what is your view on possible impact on your operations? How is consumer environment in Turkey and U.S. and competitive environment, can you touch upon working capital management plans in 2026? A lot of questions.
You want to handle any of these, Duygu İnceöz?
Yes. Maybe like the first one is actually about the revenue guidance. We just talked about it actually a little bit. I want to also mention that the assumption for inflation is 25% here. That also has implications in terms of the unrest in the Middle East. You know, if it has impact on, you know, inflation and inflation in Turkey, then that might also impact our results, of course. It's important to note that we took 25% as assumption here. Also with respect to annual net addition to retail space, the figures that you see on the screen, these 15 stores, you know, openings and expansions, they come to around 10% sq m addition in the whole year.
Of course, the revenue impact will be much more visible in 2027, but we should be able to see some of it here in this year.
It's around 20,000 sq m, and we are roughly sub 200,000 sq m at this point in time. This addition of sq m growth and new store opening is roughly a 10% boost. Of course, as Duygu mentioned, there will be openings and closures and so on. There are periods of loss of sales and refurbishments and moving stores around, et cetera. This will translate probably on average a 3%-4% incremental top-line growth. Coupled with the other 2%-3% that's coming from the other stores that we opened last year, this 5% should be achievable, just to reiterate what we just talked a second ago.
In terms of our business dynamics, you have to understand that in terms of product planning, gross margin and so on, a bulk of it for the first half of the year is already locked in. Meaning you start the process of, you know, getting the raw materials, booking capacity, deciding on volume, et cetera. From that perspective, if I look from first of February towards the end of July, August, we feel as Mavi, in terms of our flexibilities, open-to-buys, flashes, et cetera, about the raw materials we have in hand, that we can manage our gross margin and the product offering, and we remain agile for the consumer. In the second half of the year, it is more than likely that, as.
It's happened also a couple of years back, we may see some impact on the logistic costs due to oil costs going up, some energy costs coming in, and that will be our challenge. You know, how we deal with that energy price increases as the cost base coming up, whether it's the simple electricity or the simple gas delivery, online delivery or redistribution across the many stores. I think Mavi is generally speaking well-positioned because we are quite efficient. In terms of our sell-through rates, what we buy, how we distribute our products into the stores, returns, etc., we do a pretty good job, but there will definitely be a negative impact coming from there. We will have to see how much of that we can mitigate in terms of product mix, gross margin, and campaigns.
That's a bit of an uncertainty. As Duygu mentioned, we started the year, budgeted the year 25% inflation. At this point, this portion of the KPI is clearly under stress. For us to come in, I mean, at the beginning, early days of the year, to change our target is, I think would be premature. We can talk more when we finalize the first quarter and come together and see if things are going better or not, because we also don't know whether this conflict will be, you know, lasting for a couple more weeks or will become a more regional and entangled war. Let's hope and pray, and let's hope that passes by quickly.
Okay. Cemal Demirtaş has a question. Please go ahead.
Sorry if I repeat the same questions. You know, I missed portion of the presentation. I would like to ask, you know, it's very early, and it's very cloudy nowadays in terms of the global perspective. How do we see the impact of those, you know, energy increases on your cost side overall? I know it's very early, but just, you know, in terms of the macro things, assuming that things will stabilize maybe at a higher level in terms of the oil price and others. The procurement side also, is there any continuation of these tensions at some level, not as high as, you know, the highest level? What would be the impact on your operations going forward? Thank you very much. Cüneyt Yavuz.
Sure. Thank you. In terms of overall supply chain sourcing, the tensions and where this is taking place has little impact on our current trading amount. In terms of where we make our blue jeans, where we produce our T-shirts, or the global aspirations in terms of, you know, things we move around and shop around, whether it's Vietnam, Bangladesh, China, or Egypt, that sort of vis-a-vis the current base. From a geographical distribution perspective, it won't have. Let's say we don't foresee any product supply issues. Coming back to your initial proposition, and this is what we were discussing, of course, the logistics costs, the transportation costs due to energy costs are gonna go up. These are typically of the total proposition, typically 4% or 5% of the cost structure.
Let's assume there's another 400% unexpected hit there. That makes the 4%, another 4%-5% pressure on 3%-4% gross margin pressure. It becomes, you know, what product we sell in the product portfolio, how we can also look into product mixes, etc. Generally speaking right now, let's say in quote unquote, in terms of Mavi's boardroom or management room, we are more in a wait-and-see mode right now. We are not panicked, and we are not, you know, stressed out right now at this point in time. When I talk with my sourcing and manufacturing business partners, business is going as per plan with some expectations, of course, pressures coming probably starting second quarter onwards into the equation. That's when I will have more insight.
As you mentioned, it's early days and a bit cloudy and uncertain. You know, once we meet at the end of first quarter, probably there will be more clarity, and I can guide you for, you know, what's happening this way or that way. Generally speaking, I think we've had a few conversations with both the international and local investment community. Regardless of all the stresses that are going on, currently, our approach, for better or worse, is to make a step change this year. Our focus and energy is continue to build the brand, do a lot of next generation type of marketing, segmented communication, product innovation.
At the same time, physically really expanding our footprint in Turkey and making an updated version, upgraded version, a happier and a seamless shopping experience, both from product and service point of view in the Turkish environment. Therefore, we're putting a lot of bets, and we're putting a lot of our money into a healthy CapEx. I say healthy because when we look at our returns in Turkey, it's typically, as I mentioned, less than two years and sometimes coming close to a year, so it's between a year or two. But even if this deteriorates a bit, it's still a very good return. For a company like ours, which doesn't have a lot of debt, has the energy, has the brand aspiration, it is, I think, the right push that we should be making.
From that perspective, our momentum internally is very positive despite the negative environment. We're cautious, we're smart, we're dealing with the problems, but the environment, the psyche we have in the office is this is gonna be a lot of nice, good investments that will, you know, ensure continued sustainable growth for Mavi for many years to come. Let's see how that plays out. A few percentage points of top-line growth here or half a point 1% margin there. Pressure is probably less of our concern, I would say, as a company, but more we are in an effort to step up for a continued growth for an elevated growth for many years to come.
That's my commitment to you guys, to make sure that we become even closer to the customer, give them a better offer, and at the same time, do this through growth, whatever that growth might be, within the current apparel industry. Again, as I mentioned, when we start the year, our ambition is to beat the apparel market. We still believe we can continue to gain share both in menswear, both in womenswear. We can sell more jeans. There is still more customers that we can acquire and increase wardrobe share. You know, we will be relentless, and we will chase after that as always. Thank you.
Thank you. As a follow-up, related to your trading update. In February, you grew by 27%, and in your March calculation, how do you make that calculation? You know, 74% in two weeks, but when you adjust 26%, I wonder how you reach that number. Maybe the calculation.
Well-
Maybe I can ask after the meeting.
Sure. Please.
Related to that, what was the price inflation on your sides? You know, because it implies 2%-3%, you know, the real contraction when we go with the 29% year-over-year average CPI increase in the first quarter, let's say. You know, the pricing side or in the first quarter, it looks like we are gonna be flattish or lower when we look with this perspective. We don't have the April figures, but just indication from the trading update.
Calculation is as follows. When you do the Ramadan calculation, you take weeks. Last year, prior to the Bayram sales, two weeks versus this two weeks. We do an apples-to-apples. It's not 100% apples-to-apples because seasons are moving, timing is moving, political incidents like last year we had some Istanbul mayor did something, issues, et cetera. Regardless of that, as a retail company, we work and do our planning on a 52-week calendar. When the Bayrams come in, we look at the pre-Bayram, during Bayram, and after Bayram year-over-year with the similar timelines being moved left and right 10, 15 days. I hope that was clear for you. I mean, when we did.
Yes. Yes.
You have seen that? Okay, good. When it comes to the other part, in terms of flatish growth, et cetera, you have to recall that we're coming out of January into February, March. These four to six weeks is where we are depleting or selling out the seasonal products. In terms of revenue versus what we are delivering and into the price point and how the price increases are kicking in, it's a little deflated. Within that product portfolio, vis-à-vis the budget, in terms of pricing capability, do we see a capability by Mavi to take 25%-30% price increases per ticket items? We do. Is the customer, when we have the new season products, for March, for instance, being placed in the shops, buying those products at those new price, they are also going positive.
Overall also, just another point, as you can imagine, we are tracking our price points vis-à-vis the competition. We are also seeing if our price points vis-à-vis the competition is competitive, and are we following in sync. That also seems all green. In terms of this period where Bayram has moved in a little closer to the year opening, a bit more cooler period, transitionary period, and in terms of the numbers that we're generating, new products coming in at the price point, but, I mean, take aside the Iran war or the uncertainty there, normally everything else is more or less in line with this 5%+ growth that we budgeted for. Iran is an unknown or this oil price is an unknown, but this is something we will have to discuss, I think, after the first quarter.
I find it a bit premature to talk about it right now.
Thank you.
You're welcome. Again, one more point. If the traffic and consumer activity continues as the first six weeks, we should expect the quarter to come in as per our budget. Because there is also, let's say, the movement of masses that we can track in terms of how people are coming, frequency, shopping habits, basket size, UPT, et cetera. From that perspective, it is going as per plan so far.
Thank you.
Kaan Demirkag, would you like to go next?
Thanks for an opportunity to ask questions. I have one question. I understand from your statement that you haven't decided whether to use the remaining funds for the share buybacks until the 10th June. When could you maybe provide us a perspective about this? How should we think about it in terms of capital allocation, in terms of the valuation where you see the remaining share buyback will be appropriate? Thank you.
You're welcome. I mean, our approach is as follows. First, I mean, the principles we have as Mavi, as you know, as you just witnessed, just ahead of a quarter end announcement, we respect the quiet period, and we don't trade. After, like right now, we are again open to trade. So we have now the quarter results out. We have shared with you the output that we want to deliver. Therefore, from here, I mean, let's say, today onwards, we are in quote-unquote, "in the market" to stand beside our share price and follow how the market is trending in terms of our shares. So if you ask me personally, current share price is still low, so is this still a good time from a Mavi CEO's perspective to invest into Mavi buying shares? Yes.
Again, our perspective is not one of trading with or against you. It's more supporting the market and signaling the right direction in terms of what we think is a fair price. Therefore, for the rest of the year, we have 1/2 of our funds that we have not spent, which is around TRY 500 million. As each quarter ends, and we do the announcements, and then we get into the market, and we track with our partners and our board and our committee, buyback committee, to see where the stock is going and place orders when we see the stock softening or going down below a fair value.
I do, you know, if I were you, I would expect us to continue this, what you saw in the first half, expanding the first half of the program. It's more than likely that we will continue in the same direction. Whether we will be able to spend everything or not, that's another question. We will definitely be interested in tracking our shares and supporting our shares and signaling the markets, when it goes soft. This is what I can tell you right now.
Thank you. Understand.
You're welcome.
Do we have any more questions?
Okay. It seems we're all set. Should you, as always, have any questions for me, Duygu, or the team here at Mavi, more than happy to oblige. We look forward to seeing you soon and being in touch. I would like to take this opportunity to thank you all and wish you all a very happy, healthy, safe new year. All the best. Take care. Bye-bye.