Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi Anonim Sirketi (IST:PGSUS)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Aug 15, 2023

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Jason, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome. Thank you for joining the Pegasus Airlines conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the second quarter 2023 financial results. All participants will be in listen-only mode. The conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. Please note the presentation and slides are in manual format. Each participant can access and view individual slides as they wish. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mrs. Güliz Öztürk, CEO, Mr. Barbaros Kubatoğlu, CFO, and Mr. Ömer Ömerbaş , IR Manager. Mrs. Öztürk, you may now proceed.

Güliz Öztürk
CEO, Pegasus Airlines

Thank you, Jason. Welcome everyone to our earnings call for the second quarter of the year. Thank you for joining us today. As usual, we will start with the highlights of the quarter and discuss our financial results. We will answer your questions. Now, for the second quarter, it has been a good start to the high season for us, with the propensity to travel being strong and enabling us to produce new company highs at key metrics. We offered 17% more seats in total compared to a year ago, while the growth in total number of passengers reached 21%, resulting with close to 3 percentage points of an increase in our load factor, which is 81.3%.

Our ASK growth was higher at 27% year-on-year, as our successful execution of the international growth plan continues. In fact, we recorded a 37% increase in international ASK and operated our largest international capacity in a quarter ever, even larger than the capacity at the peak third quarter of 2022. At the headline financial figures, we recorded a 30% growth in revenues. The market is normalizing back from the post-COVID height that we witnessed last year, especially with regards to the unit revenue environment. We are also steering the wheel to our normal time commercial strategy, which focuses on expanding the load factor through pricing optimization and growing the ancillary revenues. Our strong execution on the ancillary side continued in the second quarter this year as well, and we generated a 34% year-on-year increase in ancillary per pax.

Overall, the total scheduled revenue per pax, including the ancillary revenue, grew by 10% year-on-year to EUR 83.5 in the second quarter of the year. When it comes to the cost, an efficient cost management is indispensable for our commercial strategy, and we have an industry-leading performance here, as you all well know. Lower jet fuel price provided us with a tailwind this year so far, and our fuel CASK fell 16% year-on-year in quarter two. On the other hand, the non-fuel CASK was 3% higher year-on-year in the second quarter. In the end, we closed second quarter with a RASK/CASK spread just below EUR 0.01, marking a record high performance.

As such, we have more than doubled our EBITDA to EUR 221 million in the second quarter, which represented 33.6% EBITDA margin. Another milestone is reached as we passed above the EUR 200 million threshold for the first time in a second quarter. The net profit reached EUR 91 million compared to the loss we had a year ago. All in all, it was a strong second quarter, and it was a strong first half. Second half started also with a strong demand, with July bringing in another 18% growth in the number of international passengers. Actually, in July, we supplied our largest ASK ever for a single month.

Having said this, the year-on-year comparisons are getting increasingly difficult in terms of unit revenues, because it's a more normalized market environment right now compared to what we have witnessed through the summer season last year. It was a period which was referred to as the revenge of the customer, and we see the same trend globally in the aviation sector. Today, the disruption issue that hurt the traffic last year is still here to a certain extent this time, and the industry is still facing a capacity supply problem, but there's obviously more capacity in the market compared to a year ago. For the third quarter, what we are seeing is that the RASK will be more trending at a comparable level with the same quarter of 2019, rather than the record high third quarter of 2022.

There's also the recent upswing in the jet fuel prices. It's still early to tell the direction of the fuel for the coming months, but we prefer to take a cautious stance. Some cost push that will drive the CASK higher from the second to third quarter is on the table. In short, given the current circumstances, we expect the RASK-CASK spread in the third quarter of 2023 to land somewhere around the level seen in the third quarter of 2019. For the whole year, we're still on track for a 20% ASK growth, as provided earlier. We also reiterate our estimates for an EBITDA margin at the 30s territory, so we're confident that we will maintain our leading position in the overall industry at this metric.

I saved an important and enthusiastic topic to the last word of my part, our fleet order. In July, we extended our current order with Airbus by 36 aircraft, all Airbus A321neos. Deliveries are scheduled for the 2026-2029 period. Total size of the order is now at 150 aircraft. This expansion brings more transparency to our long-term growth targets and will further strengthen the execution of our business model. We are very satisfied with the performance of the Airbus A321neos, as we always say, and the more we grow our Airbus A321 fleet, the more we will see the benefits of the economies of scale. Plus, we finalize the order at a time when OEMs are very stretched in supplying the capacity to the market.

We are very happy with this development, and I'm also happy to share this with you. Now I'm leaving the word to Barbaros to elaborate more on the details of quarter two. Thank you. Barbaros.

Barbaros Kubatoğlu
CFO, Pegasus Airlines

Thank you, Güliz. Hi, everyone. Let's take a look, quick look at the financial details of the quarter. We recorded a top-line figure of EUR 657 million, which represents a 30% increase compared to a year ago. For a breakdown, there was 24% growth in scheduled passenger revenues and 61% growth in ancillary revenues. On the operating side, the drivers were the 6% growth in fleet, 5% increase in aircraft utilization, and around 3% increase in load factor. Altogether, producing a 21% increase in the number of passengers. Now, that we are discussing the operating details, I'd like to spend an extra minute to highlight an important point here, or more like a reminder to help you in your evaluations and future projections on Pegasus.

We have discussed our fleet strategy with you several times. It's indeed one of the main pillars of our investment story. As you know, we have already completed our A320neo order with Airbus, the rest of the order book consists of A321neos. So far, we delivered 30 of them, and we have 78 A321neos in the pipeline. A321 Neos has around 30% more seats than the others. More A321 means an increase in every seat supply per aircraft. In Q2 2023, our average seat supply reached to 200 seat threshold for the first time, indicating 5% increase from the 192 seats compared to a year ago. In theory, even if the load factor stays flat, it still means a higher passenger number per cycle.

This calculation will be more and more invers going forward as the share of A321neos increase in the fleet. Do not overlook this fact when you are analyzing our traffic releases and financials. On the cost front, there is an 8% increase in total costs. The lower jet fuel prices work in favor of us and pull down our fuel expenses by 16% year-over-year, despite the fact that we saw a 22% increase in our block hours. However, the cost item other than jet fuel, faced with inflationary pressure across the board, as you know, this is particularly true for the personal expenses, which increased by 68% in the second quarter of the year, and offset around half of the savings generated from fuel expenses.

We expect the pressure stemming from staff costs to remain as such in the remainder of the year. As of the first six months, our CASK non-fuel was 6% higher year-over-year, despite the fact that we maintain our estimates for a mid to high single digit increase in CASK non-fuel for the whole year, compared to 2022. As for the EBITDA, there is a EUR 221 million figure for Q2, which represented an EBITDA margin of 33.6% for this period. Last year, we had an EBITDA of EUR 104 million in the same quarter, with a 20.6% margin.

At the bottom line, there is a EUR 91 million net profit for this quarter, compared to EUR 40 million loss we incurred a year ago. All in all, our, on our balance sheet, we have a EUR 956 million of cash reserves, and a positive cash reserve of EUR 443 million. Our total net debt stands at the EUR 2.1 billion level. As a result, our net debt to EBITDA for the trailing twelve-month period stood at 2.16 times as of the first half end, compared to 2.45 x by the end of 2022.

Regarding the fuel hedges, for 2023, we are now 48% hedged at a price range equivalent of $64-$84 per barrel for Brent. Our hedge level for 2024 also reached to 36% as of today. That concludes my part of presentation. We will now to start Q&A session. As usual, we will start by answering you the questions that you have sent us. We will then open the call to ask additional questions and follow-ups. Thank you.

Ömer Ömerbaş
Head of Investor Relations, Pegasus Airlines

Hi, everyone. This is Ömer speaking. I would like to thank you for your participation and for your questions. Let's start with the first one. Considering the high base of last year, how much erosion should we expect in international tax yield, Güliz?

Güliz Öztürk
CEO, Pegasus Airlines

Okay, well, let me remind you a quick feedback that we frequently share with the community. Passenger yields, low taxes, ancillary per pax, per passengers. Our strategy on these areas is interconnected, and we evaluate the outcome as a whole. That's what I mentioned as our normal time commercial strategy. Obviously, the pandemic period was a massive deviation from normal times, so we had to work differently to adapt ourselves. Now the market is normalizing, so this means the key metrics will make more sense when they are compared to the pre-pandemic levels. Last year's yield environment was very strong when we exited the pandemic, and this was particularly true for us as we were ready to meet and manage the fast recovery in traffic.

Recall that our international passenger yield was up by 50%-60% in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, compared to the same quarters of 2019. Our capacity supply was, like, 30% higher, and it was such a unique environment. In the meantime, the airlines in Europe were performing a more limited recovery in capacity as well as in yields due to some various reasons. This summer, although there is still some disruption problems that causes stress and pressure on the airlines, there is considerably more capacity in the markets. Demand is still growing in terms of passenger numbers, but that revenge mood has changed.

All in all, the environment, resembles the one that we are more used to operating in and one where we can run our business model as it is. This is how actually the, the background is. On the cost side, there is the recent upswing, as we said, in jet fuel price and the ongoing inflationary pressures, on other cost items. There was one question about the staff expenses. We actually expect more than 18% increase in this item in the second half, compared to the first six months. Nevertheless, we're confident about our ability to run an efficient operation, and we continue to guide you for a mid to high single digit increase in CASK non-fuel, similar to the previous call.

In short, I'd like to say from a RASK CASK spread perspective, we see the 2023 figure realizing at a comparable level, to the 2019 figure under the current circumstances.

Ömer Ömerbaş
Head of Investor Relations, Pegasus Airlines

Thank you, Güliz. The second question: Would you provide some information regarding the potential impact of the increase and change of structure in the domestic price cap?

Güliz Öztürk
CEO, Pegasus Airlines

Yes, we have a new structure. According to the new structure, the cap will be calculated as 1,650 Turkish liras until 85% of the seats are sold. Then, for the remaining 15% of the capacity, 2,500 Turkish liras will be applied. Previously it was an all around flat rate of 1,150 Turkish liras. The change is announced very recently, so it will cover only the half of the peak season. Yes, a change was really necessary, and it will give us a larger playground in revenue management.

The direct impact on the domestic revenues for the second half of the year, would be around 3%-4% of an increase, subject to certain assumptions, of course. The benefits for us, reach beyond the additional revenues that we can generate from the tickets we're selling at the cap level. A higher cap will let us run our business model at the way it's supposed to be and let us offer various tariffs to the customers. Otherwise, with the previous capping effects, all tariffs were squeezed to a narrow price range, leaving no room for differentiation.

Ömer Ömerbaş
Head of Investor Relations, Pegasus Airlines

Thank you, Güliz. The third question: What is your take on the recent change in legislation that stopped credit card payments by installments for spendings related to traveling abroad?

Barbaros Bey?

Barbaros Kubatoğlu
CFO, Pegasus Airlines

Thank you. It's a very small figure on our side. Credit cards were extending some two to four installments for the ticket purchases. The share of sales on installments in total sales, was around less than 2%. Overall, there is an immaterial impact on our international sales.

Ömer Ömerbaş
Head of Investor Relations, Pegasus Airlines

Thank you. Next question: Upon news regarding a manufacturer recalling the engines it supplied to A320neos for inspection, can you remind us if you are exposed to a risk of grounding any aircraft due to such reason?

Barbaros Kubatoğlu
CFO, Pegasus Airlines

No, we are not facing any such risk. Our engine supplier is CFM, not Pratt & Whitney. The ones that are recalled in the market, they, they are the GTF engines supplied by Pratt & Whitney. We have CFM International's LEAP engines equipped on our neo aircraft, so there is no concern for us.

Ömer Ömerbaş
Head of Investor Relations, Pegasus Airlines

Thank you, Barbaros Bey. Can you elaborate on the outlook and the direction of your international growth plans for the medium term, Güliz?

Güliz Öztürk
CEO, Pegasus Airlines

I think, we delivered a very successful result so far, with this strategy, and the impact has been very visible on our figures. At the end of 2017, the share of international capacity in the total capacity was around 64%, and this figure reached to 80% at the end of 2022, last year. There are many contributors to the execution here. First, the fleet strategy, which is well-designed to meet our growth targets. Moreover, our fleet plan proved to be a reliable one, considering the big capacity supply problems that a large number of airlines are facing. We also do a tailor-made work towards the expansion of the route network on both ends. In other words, the planning beforehand and the commercial effort after the service launch.

The ancillary services are also a crucial part of our international segment. We're designing and optimizing the ancillary services in line with the requirements of our passengers, in order to be able to stimulate further demand and increase the penetration on the ancillary products and services. The results have been very successful, as we have followed in our financial results quarter after quarter. Now, we expect to close this year with ASK share of international segment reaching around 82% level. We will be adding a couple of percentage points. By the way, at the end of the year, our international capacity will be around 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels.

This is an eye-catching growth, considering that in Europe, for instance, the total capacity is estimated to recover back to the pre-pandemic level only during this summer. Beyond 2023, we will continue to grow our international business. That's the plan we have. We also expect the domestic demand to pick up some pace going forward in the coming years. I may say there will be a higher share of international capacity in total, maybe a touch higher in the medium term.

Ömer Ömerbaş
Head of Investor Relations, Pegasus Airlines

Thank you, Güliz. Can you comment on potential ASK increase in average fleet size for 2024, Barbaros Bey?

Barbaros Kubatoğlu
CFO, Pegasus Airlines

We are foreseeing an average fleet size, operating fleet size of 100 aircraft in 2023, including two to three wet leases in aircraft during the summer period. Given the fleet plan for the upcoming years, there will be around 9% increase in average fleet size in 2024. A higher number of average seat supply, as I mentioned, thanks to continued increase on, of A321neos, and a slight increase in average stage length stemming from the higher share of international operations in total. You can expect the ASK growth to outpace that 9% growth in average fleet size next year.

Ömer Ömerbaş
Head of Investor Relations, Pegasus Airlines

Barbaros Bey, thank you. These were the questions that we have received from you, so thank you again. Jason, we can now open the call up to the audio questions, if any. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Participants on the telephone who wish to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star, then two. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Again, anyone who has a question may press star and one. At this time, we'll pause momentarily for a question. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no questions in the queue. I will now turn the conference over to management for any closing remarks. Oh, I'm sorry. It looks like we do have a question from Dan Iglesias from Debtwire. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hello. Thank you for the presentation. I was just going to ask whether you have any plans with regards to your current capital structure, especially on the side of the debt stack, whether you're looking to refinance or issue any more debt right now? Thank you.

Barbaros Kubatoğlu
CFO, Pegasus Airlines

... Thank you. in terms of, capital structure, we are not any plan on the, debt structure for the upcoming year, and, only considering only financing upcoming 16, aircraft deliveries for the year of 2024.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Cenk Orcan from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Cenk Orcan
Co-Head of Research and Senior Analyst, HSBC

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for the presentation. You mentioned the importance of ancillary per pax, and not just on the load factor and revenue yield. In that respect, I'm curious to know your medium-term output for ancillary per pax. You have grown this metric quite successfully recently. Do you expect the uptrend in ancillary per pax, especially now that you mentioned growing a share of international capacity in the overall capacity? Thank you.

Barbaros Kubatoğlu
CFO, Pegasus Airlines

Thank you, Cenk. On the ancillary side, we can say generally, more of the same, some of the needs is on that side. Growing more internationally, helps us to increase blended figures on the ancillary side. Also, for the upcoming periods, we prefer to increase ancillary products rather than yield, prioritize the ancillary unit and yield. On the penetration side, more focus on the penetration. All in all, for the upcoming periods, we expect to slightly increase in total, in blended perspective for the upcoming 2-3 years.

Cenk Orcan
Co-Head of Research and Senior Analyst, HSBC

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Again, if you have a question, please press star, then one. There are no more questions in the queue. I'd like to turn it back to management for any closing remarks.

Güliz Öztürk
CEO, Pegasus Airlines

Thanks, Jason, and thank you everyone for joining us. I wish you all a good week. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a good afternoon.

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