Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Geli, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the TAV Airports Investor Day live webcast to present and discuss the 2024 nine months financial results. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Serkan Kaptan, CEO, and Ms. Burcu Geriş, Deputy CEO and CFO. Mr. Kaptan, you may now proceed.
Thank you. During the first nine months of year 2024 , we served 83 million passengers, with a growth of 12% compared to 2024 . Most importantly, is that our international traffic was 13% above compared to last year's same period. In total, we reached a 56 million international passenger traffic, despite the geopolitical developments, especially in the Q3 , which we calculated to have had an effect of 3% on September traffic. Nevertheless, the winter schedules for airlines are looking very strong, and travelers are looking to take the advantage of a warmer winter season during the fourth quarter. The financial results for the first nine months were also very, very strong. We have 25% growth in our revenues, 28% growth in our EBITDA, 5% growth in our net income.
Our revenue reached up to EUR 1.23 billion , EBITDA EUR 411 million , and the net income to EUR 185 million . Our free cash flow also for the first nine months reached to EUR 121 million , which shows the cash generation capacity of TAV Airports during a period of a heavy investment. If you look at our latest addition to our portfolio, our airport in Almaty, the Kazakh economy is on a solid growth path, with a per capita of $13,000 for 2023. Since our acquisition of Almaty Airport, we have already invested roughly around 226 million EUR for the terminal building, various airside facilities, cargo, and fuel operations. We doubled the number of our destinations.
We increased our cargo airlines from nine to 16, and the passenger growth is 72% compared to pre-pandemic level. We also started to work on our Almaty investment plan for the future because we see the strong demand continuing. In addition to the performance of Almaty, of course, Antalya is our jewel. For Antalya, our food and beverage company, BTA, will be investing in Antalya Airport. Also, Havaş will be investing in a warehouse building at Istanbul new airport in 2025. The new terminal and airside investments that we are undertaking in Antalya are 91% complete. We target to reach the 95% completion rate by the end of the year, and to open our new terminal to the passenger traffic by the Q1 of 2025.
With the new investments in both international and domestic traffic, our passenger capacity will be increased to 65 million passengers per year. ATÜ, our duty-free company, and BTA, our food and beverage company, are selected as the next duty-free and catering operators at Antalya Airport. For Ankara, our airside investments are almost completed. We are at 84% completion rate, and we moved our expected completion date from the fourth quarter of next year to the Q2 of 2025 . We have a lot of airside investments in Ankara, which will not have a direct effect on our revenues, but will enhance the capacity of the airport, and with the new concession kicking in May 2025 , we will improve Ankara's profitability and our EBITDA level. We also have started our solar panel investments in Bodrum and Izmir.
Ankara is on the way and will be starting in the coming few weeks. Our total installed power will be slightly above 16 MW, with a cost of $20 million, and we expect to produce the 30% of consumption of these three airports, which had an electricity bill of EUR 6 million for the first nine months of 2024. If we talk a bit about our traffic performance, usually we measure our traffic performance with our international traffic growth. In Antalya, for the first nine months of the year, compared to last year, we have a 7% growth in international passengers. In Izmir, we have 14% growth on international. In Ankara, we have 19% growth. In Milas-Bodrum Airport, we have 8% growth. In Gazipaşa, the secondary airport to Antalya, we have 61% growth.
Almaty, we have 26% growth. In Georgia, we have 33% growth. In Medina, on international, we have 11% growth. Tunisia, 25%, Macedonia, 3%, and in Croatia, we have 16%. So our international traffic growth for the first nine months of the year compared to last year is 13% growth. As mentioned earlier, the geopolitics had a minus 3% effect on September, if you look year-on-year.
Thank you, Serkan. Just to talk more about the numbers, we had a good three quarters.
... Despite the last month having some impacts from geopolitical tension, still, traffic was all in all very good, as Serkan mentioned. On the revenue side, in the first nine months, we showed 25% increase to EUR 1.2 billion, 1,231, to be exact, and our EBITDA surged 28% in euro terms to EUR 411 million. Our EBITDA margin was quite strong, still, at 33%, and I'll talk about more on the margin and the inflationary pressures, and it's still a big success, thanks to the good growth and the diversified portfolio of TAV Airports. We were able to keep the impact rather low and keep our margins intact, despite the inflationary pressures.
On the equity account of the investments, we recorded EUR 42 million, and our net profit after minority was EUR 185 million. This shows a mere 5% increase, but it's important to remember that our nine months in 2023 was EUR 176 million, including EUR 76 million, one of net income from Tibah, from Medina share sales, meaning that our net income from ordinary course of business was EUR 100 million, and this would mean an 85% increase in our ordinary course of net income. Our CapEx is very much in line with our budget and our guidance. It's EUR 165 million for the first nine months. Mostly, the Ankara and Almaty EPCs took part.
The free cash flow, I'm happy to report, is EUR 121 million, so we were free cash flow positive starting from Q2, and now we see these very high numbers on the free cash flow is a good sign, and we are on the track to increase our cash flow, to reduce our net debt, and to reduce our net debt to EBITDA. So our net debt is around EUR 1.6 billion, and our net debt to EBITDA is currently at 3.4 x, if you take into account the last 12 months EBITDA. Passengers already, Serkan talked about a lot, so I won't go into too much detail. But just to give some color on the revenue increase and the components of the revenue increase.
So there are a couple of one-offs, positive, not one-offs, but it's fundamental one-offs, which will continue as well. So, there was the Paris Lounge Network, the lounge operations, which was purchased and, the remaining 50% was purchased and consolidated. This, helped increase the revenues, EUR 23 million and EBITDA, EUR 7 million. And then Ankara's exit from the IFRIC 12, it's also an important factor in increase in revenue, an increase of EUR 12 million, both in revenue and EBITDA. So these two items were new on top of the organic growth on the passenger side, and also, as you know, Almaty Airport started, its new terminal operations as of June, so this helped a lot also with the non-aviation revenues like duty-free, lounge revenues.
So, we are delivering basically what we promised the investor community, and we are very rapidly decreasing the net debt and, you know, generating more and more cash. I can talk more. I mean, I won't go slide by slide on this because it's obviously too detailed, and you have it with you. But if you would like to turn to page seven, I can talk a bit about OpEx, because it's kind of like a hot topic in Turkey nowadays, taking into account the inflation we have experienced for the last couple of years, let's say, and the relatively stable FX. As you know, we have predominantly hard currency revenues, so 75% of our revenues are euros and dollars, whereas the OpEx is in local currency.
As I said, we are taking the advantage of not being a pure Turkish play, so we have 60% of our revenues coming from abroad, meaning that 60% of our business, the OpEx is not Turkish lira, it's not, it's not impacted by Turkish lira inflation. Having said that, in our Turkish operations, obviously, as with every Turkish corporate, we got impacted. Thanks to the high growth in the passenger side and also spend per pax and aviation side, these were somewhat set off, and so we were still able to keep our margins intact at 33%. So on the OpEx page, you will see, obviously, compared to last year's nine months, the personnel expenses have an increase of 37%.
This includes not only wage increases, but also some growth, obviously, in the number of personnel, because the new businesses added to the portfolio. Almaty Airport, obviously, growing and non-aviation income and F&B business being added, Paris Lounge Network impact as well. So, it's some of it is inorganic, some obviously caused by the wage increases. All in all, we were still able to manage our cash OpEx and the increase, despite all the negative news, we're still below the revenue increase, and in fact, this caused our EBITDA to surge by 28%. I talked about the bottom line, and if you wanna go asset by asset to page 10, maybe we can give some color. As Serkan mentioned, we have a lot of stars and flagships, and they've given really strong performance.
Especially, I would like to talk about starting from Ankara, for example, you see that, the revenues show, quite an increase, and, you know, this is threefold, I can say, and even will continue, towards the future years. Because, as you know, Ankara, has come out of the IFRIC 12, and its traffic, especially international traffic, is growing around 25%, so very strong growth in Ankara traffic. Plus, starting from May 2025, we have the new concession, which means that we will have a tariff increase as well. So all these impacts, together, gives us a very strong financial outlook for Ankara, specifically. And, our nine-month revenues were EUR 50 million, and the EBITDA was EUR 25 million, with an EBITDA margin of 51%. Izmir also going strong, with EUR 75 million revenue, EUR 46 million EBITDA.
You can see Tunisia finally recovered, so 61% margin, and the traffic recovered this year. We are still at a restructuring phase with Tunisia, but nothing to worry about. Everything is under control. We are negotiating with the lenders and the authority, and really, there's no equity to be put in the company, so all under control. And it's good news that the traffic is now recovering, and the company has ample cash. Georgia, obviously one of our stars, 98%, EUR 98 million revenue, 77 million EBITDA. Georgia, we can talk later, but yes, the concession has a short time to end, and we will be definitely working on it to try to renew it with a new tender. And on Bodrum, Almaty.
Almaty, obviously, we talked, but as you can see, the revenue is EUR 355 million, and the EBITDA already for nine months is EUR 79 million. For the full year, we will be above EUR 100 million, which is, you know, good, great sign, as I said, doubling passengers and doubling the EBITDA for next year in five years' time. And we'll talk more about CapEx related to Almaty, which is, you know, which we choose to do to fuel the growth and to unlock the growth. As you know, we had also purchased Almaty during COVID, which some of you might have said that, you know, not a smart thing to do during COVID, but it turned out that it was the smart thing to do, and we are very happy with our investments.
So all those investments we made are paying off, with the doubling of the passengers and doubling of the EBITDA in only five years, despite the COVID. I can talk a bit about the debt structure on page 12. And, as I mentioned, we are continuously reducing our net debt. We are on the delever mode, and, as I said, net debt to last 12-month EBITDA is now at 3.4 x. The net debt to EBITDA for 2025 guidance is 2.5-3 x. You may have some questions when we have the new guidance regarding 2025, whether it will impact the net debt to EBITDA. Currently, we don't have enough information about the Almaty CapEx plan. We are still working on it because it will take some time to fine-tune this Almaty CapEx plan.
It is, as I said, not a mandatory CapEx, but something we'll do for a return, a return on investment and our addition on EBITDA. So on the long term, definitely on the mid to long term, it's good for us. We will have more details, I think, for the guidance revision or guidance announcement for February. So bear with us and stick with us. We will give more details in February. And finally, I mean, just a couple of words on CapEx. The current CapEx, this year's CapEx is page 13. We made EUR 165 million CapEx, which is in line with our guidance. On to you, Serkan.
Yes.
to give some information about our big investments.
Yes, for the investments, we were always telling about the three major investments, like three A's, Ankara, Antalya, and Almaty. For Ankara, as of end of September, we are at 84% of the completion rate for the construction. As the first phase, we had an EPC contract of EUR 210 million , which started in year 2023, which is mainly consisting of the new runway, car park, solar panels, and mainly airside infrastructure. All these projects will be finalized by the second quarter of 2025. As you may know, by 16 May 2025, the new concession kicks in for Ankara. And for, in terms of our, IFRS revenue expectation in Ankara, at year 2025, the expected, IFRS revenue will be, around EUR 100 million .
This is the reason of higher revenue collection than the existing contract. With the new concession, we have additional revenue sources and no cap on our passenger fee collection. AJet and Pegasus are the main drivers of the traffic in Ankara for the international traffic, which we believe that, especially on AJet side, the growth on international will continue. As reported earlier, the first nine months of the year for international is above by 19% compared to the same period. If you talk about Antalya, in Antalya, end of September, we are at 91% construction completion rate. The construction will be over by early next year. We plan to start the operations by the first quarter of 2025.
We are doubling the capacity of our terminals, both on international and domestic, and the new terminals will definitely have a positive effect on the retail spending of the passengers. When we move on to Almaty Airport, in Kazakhstan, we have a very low propensity to fly, so we believe that the aviation market could easily double if we take the example of Turkey. We see that the flag carrier, Air Astana, will be increasing their fleet size by 42% in the coming four years. When we look at their orders and the received aircraft, it easily demonstrates that it will happen, and the coming four years is very visible for the delivery of the aircraft. Kazakhstan, the demography is very good for aviation. 58% of the population is below age 35.
The GDP per capita last year was $13,000. Almaty is the most populated city in the region and had been a historic center for the Silk Road, and we can reach to 1.8 billion people within five hours of flying distance, so for Almaty, because of this growth, we have a new investment plan. As said earlier, compared to pre-pandemic level, we are already 72% above the 2019 numbers. The CAGR of 2021, the time we took over the airport, and our expected traffic for 2025, is 40% on international passenger. This is one of a kind, actually, in Central Asia or other places in the world.
We have this for the last four years, and we believe that at 2025, the CAGR of 40% will continue. In terms of the new investment plan, as mentioned earlier, we have already invested EUR 226 million for the new terminal building, some airside facilities, cargo, fuel operations. We doubled the number of destinations, we increased the number of passenger airlines, we increased the number of cargo airlines, and the traffic grew by 72%. However, with this expected 40% CAGR, we need to have more investment, mainly on the airside facilities, to cater the demand both for cargo and passenger aircraft. The titles of the airside infrastructure will be the runway rehabilitation. We have two runways in Almaty. One is fully functional, the other one is used as a taxiway.
So we need to rehabilitate the existing taxiway, existing runway. We need to make a new taxiway to enable the faster traffic there. New parking stands for the aircraft, additional ground handling equipment because of the growth, airside equipment, again, because of the growth. We have good cargo facilities, but we need cargo apron, de-icing pads, and some other airside related infrastructure. We estimate that this investment plan could be in the range of EUR 150 million - 300 million, which will be realized in the coming three to four years. Our investment is planned to be financed by our internally generated cash of Almaty Airport and also Almaty's project finance CapEx tranche, with no equity to shareholder contribution from the holding.
The size of our investment program, it's a wide range we are aware will be agreed on our February 2025 board meeting. This is our target. We will be also negotiating the tariff for this investment size, because some of the investments are safety-related, some are the investments are for passenger comfort and for the growth. We believe that we'll have a good discussion and we'll have our tariff proposal will be accepted. Just to remind, between 2021 to 2024, during the investment period, we had tariff increases because of the new investment. That's why we believe that we'll have a good solution for the tariff increase versus the investment. On the left below chart, you also see the comparison table of the peer airports.
Clearly, Almaty is very low in terms of the tariff, so this is reasonable tariff expectation. So if you move on to page 20 for our guidance, for 2024 is already realized. We could say for 2025, we keep all our guidance for revenue, total passenger, international passenger, EBITDA, net debt to EBITDA and, EBIT. We just want to make a modification for our previous CapEx guidance. Earlier, we have EUR 90-110 million of CapEx guidance for 2025. We will modify to EUR 140-160 million , which will be coming from BTA's investments in Antalya. As mentioned earlier, BTA Food and Beverage Company is awarded for the F&B contract of Antalya Airport and Havaş Warehouse in the new Istanbul Airport.
Plus, the Almaty investment plan, which will be agreed in the Q1 of next year. I think the group is already aware of the TAV corporate and shareholder structure, which is self-explanatory on page 21. Currently, we have almost 50% of our shares floating in the market. We have Groupe ADP as is, with 46.2%. Tepe Group have decreased to 4.26%. Thank you. We have a question from Citi, from Ashish Khetan: Can you please provide some outlook on traffic growth for next year, considering the recent slowdown in Turkey tourism industry? Do we see a risk to your current traffic and EBITDA output for 2025?
Our international passenger traffic was adversely affected by geopolitical developments in the third quarter, which we calculate to have had an effect of 3% on September traffic. Nevertheless, the winter schedules for airlines look very strong, and travelers are looking to take advantage of a warmer winter season during the first, during the Q4 . We are cautiously optimistic for next year, and having a diversified airport portfolio also helps a lot here. Strong Turkish lira and geopolitical developments are major factors that will affect both our operational and financial results. We would like to remind you that 58% of the consolidated EBITDA of TAV Holding comes from outside of Turkey, Türkiye, and non-Turkish airports like Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Macedonia are performing very well.
I can continue with more questions from Ashish. So the second question is, CapEx outlook for 2025 is EUR 140-160 million. Will this be the regular CapEx outlook for future years? Good question. So the EUR 140-160 million CapEx includes also some growth CapEx, such as a BTA investment in Antalya and also a Havaş warehouse investment in Istanbul Airport. And also two quarters of the airside investment related to Ankara CapEx. So these three are growth CapEx. They're not ordinary course of business CapEx. If you take these out, we end up with our original guidance of 90-110. So the rest we can say can be assumed as maintenance CapEx for 2025 and the upcoming years, unless there's any other growth CapEx.
For the third question, can you please provide rough breakdown of Almaty CapEx spend per years? Will it be more towards 2025 or towards back end of the period, like 2026, 2028? Again, good question. Serkan mentioned a bit about Almaty CapEx. As he said, I would like to repeat that we are, you know, at the stage of preparing a master plan of these investments for Almaty, and we have hired independent advisors for all the necessary work. And this includes, you know, as Serkan mentioned, runway rehabilitation, new taxiway, new parking stands, ground handling equipment facilities, cargo apron, a big plan, really.
It will be more realistic, I think, to expect the investments to start not at the beginning of the year, so we cannot do all of them at once in 2025, obviously, but they will start towards the H2 of the year, or at least from the Q2 of the year. And, as Serkan mentioned, we hope to provide more visibility during our February 2025 guidance on how these work would be distributed to the future years. We expect that it to be not so much front-ended or back-ended, but more evenly distributed, I would say, throughout the next three, three, four years. So the next questions come from Kona Capital, Muharrem Gulsever. The first one being, EBITDA margin of other segment was 30% in quarter three 2024. Is there any one-off in this item?
What should we expect for normalized margin of the other segment? So, TAV Technologies, which is our IT company, has recovered some of the previously written-off assets in Q3, so this is the one-off effect on the EBITDA margin. On the normalized margin, it's a difficult question because it includes a lot of different types of services, but as we had previously mentioned, service businesses have or other service businesses have somewhat lower margin than airport business, but they do provide an exponential growth and increase, you know, double digit and contribute to the double digit EBITDA growth. So they are very aggressive, although with lower margin than the airports.
The upper end of your guidance, and I'm turning to the second question: The upper end of your guidance suggests a mere 3% year-on-year growth in quarter four revenues. Where do you see particularly weakness in top line? We don't see any weakness, by the way. According to our latest budget forecast we expect to finish the year above our revenue guidance, but we didn't update our revenue guidance. But the expectation is that we will be above our guidance, so we don't expect really any one-off weak fourth quarter than what we thought we would have. So I think there is an upside, I would say, to the revenue guidance for the rest of the year 2024. I'm turning to the questions from Ata Yatırım, Melih Tulin. Could you please inform us on your indebtedness plan for the future?
Net debt to EBITDA ratio at Q3 2024 was slightly below your guidance for full year 2024. Will you make a guidance revision for 2025, considering the new investment plan for Almaty? I tried to touch upon that subject during our presentation, but just to properly answer it, as you rightly point out, our net debt to last twelve months EBITDA was slightly below our guidance. Slightly below, meaning good. So it was below the 3.5-4.5, it was around 3.4x . For the full year, we continue to expect the ratio to stay within our guidance, so we will be within our guidance, below four times.
The last quarter is normally weak in terms of seasonality, as you know, and we guide for EUR 260-300 million in total investment for the full year, which means EUR 95-135 million CapEx for the last quarter. As you know, we have been through a heavy investment period in Almaty, Antalya, and Ankara since 2021, as Serkan mentioned the details, and these investments total more than EUR 2.5 billion. So these big-ticket investments will be completed in 2025, except for the Almaty investment plan, which we are just launching. We already opened the new terminal in Almaty in June, and we are on track to complete our investments in Antalya and Ankara on time. And the net debt EBITDA improved significantly this year.
For 2025, due to CapEx in BTA and Havaş, which I explained, and the Almaty CapEx plan, we will have to have a look in February. So again, bear with us. If we need to revise our net debt to EBITDA guidance slightly upward, we will do so, but if we don't need to, we will keep it the same. It will depend on how the breakdown of the CapEx plan, first of all, the amount, the definitive amount, and then how it will be distributed between the years 2025 to 2027 or 2028. Over to you.
Question from Cenk Orcan, HSBC: What do you think the adverse impact on Q2 traffic, Q3 traffic from the escalated geopolitical tension would be softer in Q4 traffic? Why airlines winter schedules appear more positive versus summer? The geopolitical tensions will stay the same in Q4, but firstly, there will not be a high base effect of the summer season. The absolute numbers are much smaller in Q4 compared to summer season, so that makes larger percentage to grow easier. Secondly, compared to past years, the winter season is getting warmer, and that also stimulates demand for our leisure airports. When we look at the IATA winter schedule, we can see the airlines are increasing their capacity in line with our thinking for the fourth quarter.
Next question is again from Cenk. We see that ATU revenues are growing, but profits coming down. Is it the financial expenses? So personnel expenses, as I mentioned earlier in our presentation, are affecting ATU's margins lately because of two factors. One is a strong Turkish lira, obviously, which has an effect all across the board. The second factor is that for the luxury retail, we made some adjustments to personnel expenses to stay competitive. Also, last year in the Q3 , there was a TDF, the Tunisian business, one-off loss in ATU of 10 million. That's also affecting the year-on-year comparison.
Another question from Cenk Orcan, HSBC. Any early thoughts on the twenty twenty-five traffic outlook at Turkish airports? Do we see a risk of an uncompetitive currency causing decline in tourism traffic? We had a solid passenger guidance for 2025 , and we are still keeping our guidance. It seems from the expectation of capital markets participations that the real appreciation of Turkish lira will not be as strong as it had, has been, and the appreciation of the currency will be more parallel with the CPI, so that should alleviate concerns on the cost front. Also, Antalya's dynamics are different because of all-inclusive package tours, where the tourists know what they are going to pay for, and these are combined with very competitive airline ticket prices, too.
It's also a mass market, family and elder-friendly travel destination, which also provides a competitive advantage in these market segments. Continuing on with another question from Erdem Kaynar, TEB Investment: Could you share your roadmap for Georgia Airport when the concession expires by twenty twenty-seven? Do we expect early tender process for airports in Georgia? The elections, the general elections in Georgia will be held this weekend, 26 October . After the election is behind us, we may see a clearer picture for the timing of how the government wants to go forward. We have been operating in Georgia since September two thousand and five. We had only 600,000 passengers at that time, and this year we already reached 4.5 million passengers in the last 12 months. We would like to, of course, continue operating the airport and serving the aviation sector in the country....
There could be several alternatives that the government is evaluating, so we would get more visibility in the next twelve months after the election. Continuing on with Nandini Bommakanti from J.P. Morgan: Could you please comment on the slowdown in the international traffic at Turkish Airports, which was up 3% in third quarter 2024, compared to 14% growth in Q2 of 2024, and 10% last year in Q 2023. In the Turkish airports, the slowdown of -3% Q3 2024 is mainly based on September traffic, where we had the geopolitical context. I mean, we already had an ongoing war of Russia, Ukraine.
On top, we had the Gaza-Israel conflict, but the last one in September, the Israel issue with Lebanon now spreading to Syria, had an effect in September for the Turkish airports. The second question is: Similarly, Antalya international passengers were only up 2% year-on-year in the quarter. What are the drivers of this slowing passenger growth? Same answer. The difference is by September, it's the September traffic. In September, because of the widening of the conflict in the Middle East, we have a loss of passengers from Israel and some of the Middle East. Last one: Can you please elaborate on geopolitical risks experienced in September international traffic? I would go with a similar answer.
The geopolitical risks are mainly now related to Middle East, and we don't have any further effect of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and Russian invasion to Ukraine. We already lost almost 40% of the Russian traffic to Antalya, if you talk about Antalya, but this gap was filled by mainly European traffic. For September, because of the widening disputes in Middle East region around Israel, we have the -3% compared to last year's September traffic.
Thank you, Serkan. Some more questions. Again, from Nandini: What are the drivers of margin decline in TAV Airports' operations of 755 basis points in Q3 2024? As I mentioned earlier during the presentation, this is mostly driven by the fact, between the CPI and FX, there's a negative margin, obviously. So the CPI is going faster than the devaluation, which is impacting our margin. Luckily, as I said, we are running a portfolio, so this margin decline is set off by all the other operations, so we don't have such a strong margin decline overall. And, next one from A1 Capital Portfolio Management, Mustafa Kemal Eski. Thanks for the presentation. Wouldn't taking the investment early put pressure on cash flows in such a risky environment? I couldn't get, wouldn't taking the investment early put pressure on... Okay.
On the EBITDA margin side, you said 30.6% and above. You exceeded this as of this quarter. Is an upper limit to your expectations as well as a lower limit, for example, 35% year-end margin. On the net debt management side, there's a net debt EBITDA falling below three times. This continues to be protected at the end of the year. Thank you. Very good and detailed analysis. I will try to guide you on this. So Q3 is our strong quarter, as you know, and we do have 33% margin as of end of Q3. Doesn't really mean we will end the year with a 33% margin. So this is why we are not guiding anything above 30%, really. So this is where we are kind of balancing out all the negative impacts, so we are still around the 30%.
Regarding a lower and upper limit to our expectations, it's difficult to say because it will very much depend on macro situation in Turkey as well. For the year-end margin, definitely not 35, I can tell you. As I said, around 30%, I think the margin would be ±1% , but not more than that. On the management side, the net debt to EBITDA, taking it into account, again, the Q4, and we are landing within our guidance, not below 3, really, still between 3.5-4.5. And for the next year, for 2025, our guidance is between 2.5-3 still, and we'll see as a result of our CapEx plan and distribution and throughout the year, whether we will need to revise or keep it.
Furthermore, after these years, definitely the idea is to delever further if there's not any more growth CapEx. One more question. Okay, this is from Erkan Edincik, Horizon. TAV was one of the steady dividend payer, considering the easing CapEx out of our monthly CapEx. Do you think TAV start to distribute dividends from 2024 profits? Second question, market cap of TAV is an important KPI or not? In the scope of this, do you plan any share buyback? Thank you. Okay, the distribution of dividends, yes, we are a steady dividend payer. We, we didn't change our dividend policy. It's the same. As you know, we made some heavy CapEx. We have shareholder loans to ADP. I don't think we will distribute any dividends from 2024 profits, although our profitability is good.
We still have these shareholder loans to repay. Realistically, we could start paying from 2025 profits, at the earliest, you know, depending on all every other factor, and it will be a decision, obviously, of the board and the general assembly when the time comes, so don't take my word as a commitment of the company, but the idea is to keep the dividend policy, so we never change the dividend policy. Regarding the market cap and the share buyback, no, we don't plan any share buyback. Whether it's an important KPI or not, I mean, not necessarily to make any share buyback. Next question from Ayfer Ozdamar, Ark Asset Management. "Hello, thank you for the presentation. Could you please give an indication on what kind of return on investment we are looking at?
If EUR 150-300 million CapEx is expanded in Almaty, is it reasonable to expect an extra EBITDA of EUR 30-60 million from Almaty after the investment is completed, 20% annual return? Thank you." Very good question. Very good question. It's a bit early to answer these kinds of questions. Please bear with us a few more months while we fine-tune the CapEx plan, because we already gave a large range. But the idea, of course, is to get a good return out of these investments, both unlocking the growth for future growth. As we said, the everything doubled in five years, so why not another time to do this? But it will all depend on our and how fast and how much we do on the tariff increases related to that on the growth.
So bear with us a few more months, and we will give more details on that. These seem to be the end of the questions. Thank you so much for your interest, and have a nice day.