Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Konstantinos Yokosh, call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Türk Telekom C onference Call and Live Webcast. All participants will be in listener mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. We are here with the management team, and today's speaker is CEO Ümit Önal. Before starting, I kindly remind you to review the disclaimer on the presentation. Now, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ümit Önal, CEO. Sir, you may now proceed.
Hello, everyone. Welcome to our conference call. Today, we will talk about the widely followed topic of critical importance: Türk Telekom's fixed-line services concession. Thank you for joining us on this very special day, marking the start of a truly exciting era for our company, I must say. We are extremely pleased to announce the successful conclusion of a long and comprehensive process resulting in an amendment and extension of our fixed-line services concession until 2050. We are confident that the next chapter opens a clear path to creating greater value through our listed competencies in this very strategic zone. The agreement is a significant milestone, not only for the continuity, visibility, and value of our company, but for building Türkiye's digital future. We are honored to have once again been entrusted with this responsibility that we have long led in the sector.
In my presentation, firstly, I will take you through the details of the agreement. Secondly, I will talk a little bit about Türkiye's digital journey so far and our vital role in that. Thirdly, how we plan to unlock the value of this unique and enviable mandate granted solely to us. Starting on slide number five, the renewed concession agreement lends us the ability and flexibility to reshape our fixed-line services strategy in order to continue our fiberization and digital transformation agenda throughout a long horizon, as well as seize new opportunities ahead. The prior agreement has been amended in a holistic approach to capture the technology and digital trajectory of the next two and a half decades.
As such, the new agreement covers a broad range of activities that include developing the fixed telco infrastructure in Türkiye, operating the fixed telco network, providing wholesale and/or retail telco services through the fixed telecom network, and marketing of these services, developing and offering cybersecurity services and digital products, developing new infrastructures with technology advancement, as well as providing telco services in relation to them. We are highly satisfied by the fact that the financial terms of the agreement were determined and agreed upon, following an extensive and detailed work shared by all parties around the table. As per the agreement, Türk Telekom agrees to pay $2.5 billion plus VAT of concession fee to the Information and Communication Technologies Authority over an extended period of 10 years, starting from 2026. The payment scheduled for the concession fee is as shown in the top right table.
The agreement reflects trust in our quality, execution, and potential to contribute. By the same token, it equips us with the visibility and confidence we seek to continue investing decisively in tomorrow's building blocks. Accordingly, Türk Telekom commits to an investment plan of $17 billion in areas covered by the agreement through 2050, with built-in flexibility over years that enables Türk Telekom to continue to manage its CapEx budget in alignment with the need to preserve its financial discipline. This is not a random one. Thoroughly worked out numbers to maintain our strong position in the fixed-line services domain and engage in new initiatives where feasible and necessary. Türk Telekom's fixed-line investments over the past two decades, adding up to a comparable size, should also help us put this number into relative context. Moving on to slide number seven.
Türkiye has been rapidly closing the digital gap with the OECD peers in internet adoption and fixed internet usage. While the country had less than nine broadband subscriptions per hundred habitants in 2009, that figure has reached almost 23 recently, with a much faster growth rate of 7% compared to OECD's average 3%. Slide number eight, please. Through dedicated investments and our motivation for fixed-line services, we remain the leader of the fixed broadband market, with heavy shares in both wholesale and retail segments. A major portion of our CapEx has gone into fixed-line investments for years, warranting this solid positioning. Our fixed-line investments averaged around $700 million over the past five years. On slide number nine, we see how Türk Telekom has been at the heart of this transformation by building the country's digital decimal.
While Türkiye's fiber length more than doubled over the past decade, Türk Telekom has built nearly 80% of the nationwide network. Running overall of 81 cities through 500,000 fiber km, Türk Telekom's network passes more than 33.5 million homes, dwarfing any other players in the sector. With such a massive scale, Türk Telekom is the undisputed leader in connectivity and the enabler of Türkiye's digital ecosystem. On slide number 10, we show how Türk Telekom has contributed to Türkiye's high-speed fiber rollout compared to European peers. What is truly striking is that Türkiye has not only surpassed the EU average in FTTHB coverage, but also made it to the fourth fastest growing market in the number of subscribers, thanks to Türk Telekom's leadership, both as a network developer and wholesale and retail operator.
On slide number 11, we elaborate on our stunning KPIs as we held onto our leadership in Türkiye's fixed broadband transformation. Today, nine out of ten Türk Telekom subscribers are on fiber, and FTTHB connections comprise close to 40% of total base. Our strategy drives a further growth in FTTHB subscription, with about 25% CAGR over 2018 to 2024. We have moved 54% of our base to 50 Mb and above packages, comparing more favorably to [Türkiye]. We build customer loyalty through the quality of our assets and services, driving our churn rates to remarkably low levels. Finally, we generate double-digit real-up growth. All these KPIs show nothing but our superior ability to generate meaningful return on our investments. We are on slide number 12 now. Fiber has not only transformed fixed broadband, it is also a cornerstone for mobile technologies.
On the verge of the 5G rollout, our extensive fiber backbone is set to ensure ultra-low latency, massive capacity, and best-in-class user experience, positioning Türk Telekom uniquely to lead Türkiye into a new digital era. With 55% of Türk Telekom's LTE base stations connected with fiber, well ahead of the global targets set for 2030, we are ready to offer our scale to other sector players, carrying both Türk Telekom and Türkiye to the next phase of tech transformation. On slide number 14, let's take a glance at the major gains we have secured with the concession renewal process we comprehensively managed. First and foremost, with an extension period of nearly a quarter century, we reserve the opportunity to remain the leading operator in fixed-line services for the foreseeable future. Second, it allows us to continue actively building and running an end-to-end fixed-line telecom ecosystem.
By operating in scale and extracting major cross-segmental synergies, we can deliver greater value more efficiently. We believe the agreement is set to form a series of barriers to duplicate investments, a win for Türk Telekom, the sector, and the country altogether. We announced earlier this week that the regulator has formulated a new wholesale pricing mechanism, which greatly increases predictability and transparency for the sector participants and enables us to better manage our business with a flexible semi-annual tariff adjustment structure. The agreement positions us as the sole player in the telecom sector to leverage the advantages of being both the operator and developer of a gigantic network in expanding into new verticals such as digital technologies, data centers, cloud, big data, AI, IoT, cybersecurity, and more, and maximize our ROI. Moving on to slide number 15. Looking ahead, our ambition is clear: faster, broader, and stronger connectivity.
We are targeting 2030 and beyond with bold and measurable goals. We have significantly built on fiber reach so far. By the end of the decade, we aim to further expand our fiber coverage to 38 million homes, ensuring that nearly every household in Türkiye has access to fiber. Going forward, our focus will be heavier on brownfield investments, which we expect to raise the ratio of FTTHB connections to 76% by 2030. We forecast the number of our subscribers to reach 18 million, with a much higher take-up rate compared to where we currently stand. We expect nearly 80% of our subscribers to sit on FTTHB packages. With that, we remain committed to driving Türkiye's fixed internet speeds higher and raising the average speed of our fiber subscribers by seven times.
I must emphasize that these are not simply numbers we present here, but a clear and carefully constructed roadmap of our long-term investments, growth, and profitability, which has devised the connection agreement we have reached with the regulator. Concession agreement we have reached with the regulator. Slide number 16. Fiber serves as the backbone of fixed internet, but perhaps more importantly, of a much wider digital ecosystem. We aspire to further expand in certain layers of the digital value chain, which we deem strategic and highly value-accurate. To exemplify, we bear the first mover advantage in data centers and still hold the largest capacity, enabling us to capture increasing demand with competitive [ARPU] growth. We hold market leadership in cybersecurity services for the past five years and rapidly expand into cloud-based solutions. Finally, let's spare some time on our strong financial position and broad funding flexibility on slide number 17.
As you know, we have been preparing our balance sheet for the upcoming one-off CapEx cycle to be driven by not only the concession agreement but also the nearing 5G tender. Therefore, we stand on a robust financial footing as of today. We deliver healthy revenue and EBITDA growth while maintaining net debt to EBITDA ratio at rather conservative levels, providing us with comfortable headroom for future investments. Our balance sheet is readily available to accommodate a broad range of funding options, including but not limited to debt issues in the form of [Sukuk], sustainable or green instruments, ECA-backed loans, or bilateral credit facilities. We are fully equipped to meet our obligations at the same time we preserve financial stability and create long-term value for our stakeholders. Distinguished investors and analysts, thank you very much for listening.
Now, I would be pleased to open the floor for your questions. Thank you so much.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. I would like to inform you that Türk Telekom will have translation during the Q&A session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from the line of Demirtaş Cemal with Ata Invest. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the presentation and congratulations for this action. You know, we have been waiting for a very long time. I would like to understand the leverage sides. Now, we understand that there's an amount of $3 billion to be paid within the next 10 years, and you have an investment of $17 billion for the following 25 years. I would like to understand the net debt impact, because as of and when we are going to start seeing it in your financials. By the end of the third quarter, are we going to see the debt level as $3 billion in your balance sheet? That's my question, the full number we are going to see. We are waiting for 5G already. Do you have any comment on the timing of that?
With rough calculation, excluding the 5G, I'm coming up with four times net debt to EBITDA levels for 2025, based on our expectations of EBITDA. I would like to understand the net debt to EBITDA levels you are targeting for the following several years while you are continuing your investments and when you have like one time, you know, the concession amounts. Could you give us a picture for the following two, three years about the risks and the net debt to EBITDA level? Where should we see Türk [Tel] in terms of net debt to EBITDA within the next two, three years, at least in your base scenario? Thank you.
[Foreign language]
Thank you very much, Mr. Cemal. I will start answering your question, and then for the technical detail additions, our CFO will follow up.
[Foreign language]
First of all, I'd like to mention a collection of a couple of quarters back, you know, check our memories. As you can remember, the leverage ratio of our company has been coming down recently, which the recent amount is 0.68.
[Foreign language]
You know, concessions have been on our agenda for the last three years, and also for the last couple of years, we have also been hearing the footsteps of 5G. For the last couple of years, we can even say that we have been working on the planning of it, just like a sportsman getting ready for a game. We know that right now our balance sheet and our leverage ratios are quite ready for that patient.
[Foreign language]
What made us achieve that leverage ratios is the fact that our extreme and perfect operational performance that we had served the last one in the past years.
[Foreign language]
Moreover, when we have a look at the 2025 EBITDA and our leverage ratios, we can easily say that even after the one-off payments, our average levels are quite reasonable and also in line with our current.
[Foreign language]
Also, I'd like to remind you that this $3 billion, which includes the VAT amount, is going to be paid within 10 years of time. It's not going to make an effect, a one-off effect at least, on the leverage of our company.
[Foreign language]
Therefore, I just want to highlight and emphasize that the leverage levels of our company are actually in line with the sector standard and the global standard, and all the amounts within our calculation, as we expected, and get prepared within that equation for both for the 5G payment and the concession [payment].
[Foreign language]
Maybe our CFO would like to add on from here.
Thank you. Our CEO gave the details of this concession and the requirements and liabilities of the concession. Maybe we can separate the investment side and the license payment. Maybe we should take them separately. For the investment side, we are going to make this investment as we have done in the past. We cannot expect additional leverage effect on that side for the investment side, since it is a long term, in 20 years, 25 years of time, the investment liability, and it will be as similar as we have done our investments in the past. For the license payment side, we are going to pay the VAT of this license payment for this year just, and it is $500 million. You may add the 5G license payment. Let's say we don't know the numbers. Let's say as a total, let's say it makes $1 billion.
The effect on the leverage, as a math, I am defining this, is 0.5. When it comes to $2 billion additional in net debt, it makes 1.7 as a leverage. We may expect it can increase in the leverage ratio, increase and may make a peak in the next year. What we are expecting, based on our models and scenarios, we are expecting it will decline in the following years. Thank you.
What I understand is you are not going to put as a net debt as a lump sum number, what I understand. You are going to put step by step. You know, am I understanding right?
Yes, right.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of [Bistra Afghania ] with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Thank you very much for the presentation and congratulations on the development. Also, a lot of thanks for the presentation and this call. I have maybe kind of a follow-up to my colleague's question. First of all, in terms of net leverage ratio, do you have, like you were talking about, a comfortable level? What would be that comfortable level or maybe like a long-term target that you have? My second question is more on the funding strategy and the capital structure. I understand that $17 billion investments will be made out of, I assume, free cash flow. If we go to the license fee and 5G tender fees, do you plan to finance that with debt, or do you expect any internal cash flow generation to cover part of that as well?
In terms of the recent approval that you received for up to $1 billion issuance, do you expect that to be fully [Sukuk], or do you think it will be split between labeled bonds like Green Sustainable Conventional Bond and [Sukuk]? Thank you.
[Foreign language]
I will be answering the first part of your question. I'll make the initials, and then our CFO will be getting into the details of the leverage scenarios.
[Foreign language]
For the leverage ratio, we estimate that we will be parallel with the global sector averages. We will not be far from that in the consolidated segment.
Thank you. Let me make some additional for the second part of the question. First of all, we are not targeting any leverage ratio. We have tried to be at a level lower than the sector standard and to financially manage our business. Firstly, for this year, we are going to pay VAT for concession. It is $500 million. Our free cash and unused credits will compensate, will meet this amount of payment at the moment. For the 5G license payment, we are making a financing plan. As you have stated, we have the $1 billion from the [Capital World of Türkiye] as a commission. This does not mean we will use all this amount. This is an aboundable level. From the Gulf also, there's an appetite for our possible [Sukuk] borrowing.
We may do both from the Eurobond and [Sukuk] and take the market for the following weeks, months, let's say. It's depending on the market availability and accessibility. At the moment, it seems both from the domestic macroeconomic developments are also providing us a strong financing performance. For the global side, we see that the market is open and we can take the market. As I said, we can meet our VAT payments from our own resources and our unused credits. For the license payments, we are going to make some financing from the international market. Thank you.
Thank you. Just to clarify, on the $500 million, I understand your point. For the other $3 billion plus 5G, that would be mostly debt funded, right? Is that the correct understanding?
For the 5G side, yes, we are planning to, if you're asking for the 5G license payment side, yes, we are going to borrow it from the, we are planning to borrow from the market.
Yes. For the rest of the license fee, $2.5 billion after 2025, so 2026 onwards?
We are still confident that our operations will generate cash. Some part of the payments will come from our operations, as it has realized last year and this year. For the remaining part, yes, we may. If we borrow from the market this year and made a pre-financing, we will meet the next year payments. We may meet the next year payments from this year's borrowing.
Thank you very much for the details. Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of [Tignemaçuri] Murat with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the presentation. In one of the pages, you mentioned that the competition will not continue duplicate infrastructure investments. Until this day, were they still doing these duplicate investments? After the starting of a new agreement, are there any underlying methodologies where you can monetize this agreement? You can extract more value from your competition because they're using your backbone, basically. You've been complaining for a long time that the pricing here was not realistic or fair. The new wholesale pricing mechanism surely seems like a decent step. Still, on top of this, do you expect any more or any sort of agreement embedded in this concession agreement? I'd just like to learn about that, please. Thank you.
[Foreign language]
Thank you very much for this question. First of all, when we sit on the table with the decision makers for the concession extension negotiations, we had the opportunity to relay our concerns and also our opinions. We need legal regulation in order to make sure that this concession agreement is achieved.
[Foreign language]
To that end, one of the main items that we have relayed on these negotiations was the regulation for the wholesale pricing mechanism, as you know. We managed to have this automatic update of this price revision. This was one of the items, definitely. This week, as you know, the regulatory authority announced their decision related to that, which allowed us to have more visibility and predictability in our report.
[Foreign language]
Another agenda item to that regard was about the clarity on the ownership of the infrastructure problem. Just like Türk Telekom, we expect the other operators to follow this program. The owner of the infrastructure is the Republic of Turkey, state, and only with the right of use and within some mechanisms and some pricing schemes that they are allowed to use it. More importantly, it also created this irrational and illegitimate infrastructure buildings and operations, which eroded the current competition. We believe this subject will also be handled, driven by the regulatory authority and the relevant authority.
I understand that whatever infrastructure investments your competitors have made, they will also have to get involved in a bargaining process with the government and sign a concession agreement for what they have invested. Is that right?
[Foreign language]
I mean, what I am trying to say here is, you know, when we are discussing for the renewing of the concession, you know, the previous one was coming from 25 years ago. Of course, you know, it needs to be reviewed to see what is the current conditions, today's conditions, and what are the competitive landscape in the market. We thought that any erosion on Türk Telekom's concession requires a review and maybe a regular, and accordingly, regulations to that end. We thought that a correct mechanism is important to do that. The first example, actually, of our whole, as answered, seen with the automation of the wholesale pricing mechanism revisions coming from the regulatory authority.
[Foreign language]
We consider, we think that there may be a regulation which will prevent duplicated infrastructure investments from now.
[Foreign language]
Because, you know, the decision makers and the regulatory authority agrees with us in that any duplicated infrastructure investment made in this country is actually a waste of resources of our economy.
That's very clear. Thank you. One final question about the numbers, actually. The pledge to invest $17 billion means it's roughly $650 million- $700 million per annum. That is quite similar to what you have invested to the fixed infrastructure so far in the last five or six years, as seen in the presentation. This pledge, is it something incremental to existing run rate? I mean, when we look at in 2026, 2027, 2028, will this number be around $650 million-$700 million, or is it going to be something like $800 million or $1 billion per annum run rate? Thank you.
[Foreign language]
Thank you very much for your question. First of all, let's clarify one thing. We shouldn't make the calculation, but just divide $17 billion by 25 and come up with a number for the annual investment.
[Foreign language]
We will be investing $17 billion all gathering in within all these 25 years, but we don't have an obligation to make an investment of $710 million.
[Foreign language]
As you know, we have determined our CapEx to pay as ratio is 29%.
[Foreign language] Dolayısıyla bizler elbette ki yatırım planını öncelikle 2030 yılına kadar gelirlerimize ve finansal tablolarımıza olumlu katkı sunmasını bekleyerek yatırımlarımızı 2030 yılına kadar özellikle bakırdan fibere dönüşüm noktasında ağırlıklı bir stratejiyle planlama yaptık.
Finally, following the investment plan for the CapEx, the construction plan's ratio is 29%, but unfortunately, we know that the [audio distortion] are not available and having a limited amount of financial. For that reason, there will be also more copper to fiber transformation.
[Foreign language]
It wouldn't be correct to give an exact number here, but you can assume it's to be around current levels, maybe minus or plus around current levels. You shouldn't consider this is the x amount of CapEx and there will be incremental burden on it.
[Foreign language]
We can expect this ratio to come down even further in the coming years with the increase in the revenue.
That's very clear. Thank you very much. Is there going to be any depreciation impact because of this agreement? Thank you. That's my final question. Thank you for all answers.
[Foreign language]
No, we don't expect a negative depreciation effect on it because we already last year made an adjustment. We don't expect any negative impacts on the depreciation.
The next question comes from the line of Mishra Pradyumna with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, can you hear me?
Yes, yes.
Yes.
Thank you. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to ask questions and congratulations on the agreement. My first question is, in what ways this new agreement is different from the old one, maybe operationally and pricing-wise? The second question is whether 5G license terms such as pricing have been announced? Lastly, I just need a clarification. Why was this concession priced in US dollar? Any thought about that? Thank you.
[Foreign language]
On its way to the new agreement, it's just a new regulation created by amending the existing agreement between Türk Telekom and ICTA, taking into account the new conditions as required by the relevant articles.
[Foreign language]
I should also remind you that the previous one was 25 years ago. I mean, given that information and the technological transformation it has undergone, its relevance to today's conditions has diminished over time. It has to go to a transformation in which technologies have become intertwined. It is important and appropriate to make a current agreement which will cover and reflect the current situation and the future.
[Foreign language]
What I can say is, you know, it is actually combining the old and new because there isn't a big or different obligation in the current one than the previous one. It is maybe trying to catch the spirits of time and also cover both current situation and the future.
[Foreign language]
Five years ago, we didn't have AI, IoT, cybersecurity issues, or digital products, and the same technological advancements. What we needed to do was to be able to catch up with today's and also the next-gen family.
[Foreign language]
It also includes so many opportunities, which will provide us a revenue variety and also added value.
[Foreign language]
If it's a 5G and nowadays we are expecting the technical documents to be announced by the relevant authority, I don't want it to be binding. However, we can maybe say that or expect that around October, we can expect the 5G auction in Türkiye, but still it totally depends on when the registered authors will be announcing the technical ceremony.
[Foreign language]
I mean, our CFO may add more, but I can say that the payments will be made with USD terms or the lira equivalents calculated on the payment date.
[Foreign language]
On the day of the payment, whichever suits us more, we will do the payment that way. I mean, depending on our financial plans and the reality, if it is more suitable to pay in USD, we will pay in USD. If it is in lira, then we will pay in lira.
[Foreign language]
Mr. Mishra, have you finished with your questions?
Yeah, thank you so much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Campos Gustavo with Jefferies. Jefferies, please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you very much for the call, the details. Congrats on the development. Before my main question, I just wanted to clarify. I wanted to understand the mechanics here. Is the license payment going to be allocated into costs and it's going to be like an operational cost? Is it going to be part of cash taxes or is it going to be embedded in your CapEx? After that, I'll ask my main question, but I wanted this clarification first.
[Foreign language]
It will be recorded as a CapEx item in our balance sheet.
Understood. Thank you very much. First of all, could you please remind us what your expectations for EBITDA margins are and what your expectations for CapEx to sales are, and whether this concession update changes any of your expectations over the medium term as far as these ratios? That would be my first question. Thank you.
[Foreign language]
Let me start with the CapEx item. I mean, our CapEx to sales ratio is 29% within our guidance, and we don't expect it to deviate much from that number. I'll circle this number instead.
[Foreign Language]
Also, for the EBITDA margin, as we revised in our guidance, we expect it to be 41% in 2025.
[Foreign language]
Of course, it is a very significant increase compared to the previous year. We need to digest that first, and we will then see our budgets and look for if there is more room or headroom for it. First, we need to wait for it to sink and digest it.
[Foreign language]
We are already halfway over the year, and it's getting to the end of the year. We will very soon start to work on the 2026 budget. Once we sort it out, we will be sharing that number with you.
Okay, yes. Thank you very much. That is very helpful. I wanted to just clarify the number that you mentioned. Was it 42% EBITDA guidance for the margins?
41.
Okay, thank you. I understand that you may still review and digest these numbers and what these numbers may mean for your CapEx to sales over the medium term. Would you have any color as far as where you expect CapEx to sales to go directionally? If I look at over the last few years, it's been gradually increasing. I'm trying to understand the trajectory of your CapEx to sales over the medium term. Should you expect it to continue to increase as a percentage of sales, or do you expect it to go down from here? That's my last question. Thank you.
[Foreign language]
First of all, I'd like to remind you about finance. You know, as a strategy, we have adopted a strategy that we are increasing our fiberization efforts in order to increase our fiber acquisition.
[Foreign language]
Right now, we have a very highly challenging and ambitious ratio, which is the 29% of it. We don't expect this number to deviate much from its current level. That's circle this level, minus or plus this level.
[Foreign language]
In the mid to long term, we expect it constantly to come down because our main motivation was to increase revenue. Once we get to revenue levels, it's going to come down in the mid to long term again.
Thanks a lot. I appreciate the details, and congrats again.
Thank you so much.
The next question comes from the line of Karagöz Yusuf with HK Investments. Please go ahead.
Could you hear me?
Yes, please.
I have three questions. The first one is regarding the VAT. The disclosed payment schedule only reflects the $2.5 billion license fee. Could you please clarify whether the additional $500 million VAT will be settled upfront as a single cash payment in 2026? As of the second quarter, I see around [TRY] 1 billion of input VAT on your balance sheet. We seem insufficient to offset this amount. Should we therefore assume that the VAT will need to be paid in cash?
Yes, VAT will be paid in cash in this year, most probably in October, as $500 million. You're right. We have 80 assets, and we may expect for the next, let's say, next three, five years. Legally, we have five years of time for VAT refunds. For this payment, we can refund if any tax payment or tax requirement exists.
If it exists, we will make a refund from this $500 million payment in five years of time. Our expectation is somewhere around three to four years, could be.
Okay. We should expect that in 2025, we will see 29% of sales + the license payments, right?
Could you repeat your question? For the last part, we couldn't understand.
Other than your guidance in your presentations, which indicate that around 29% CapEx ratio you expect, we will also see the license payments, right? This is different from your CapEx guidance.
[Foreign language]
Sorry, we couldn't relate this VAT with the CapEx number within our balance sheet. They are not related.
[Foreign language]
We will be paying the $500 million VAT amount within this year upon the signing of the contract.
My second question is that your current free float is around 13%. Materially, it absorbs that of the other operator. Do we expect any potential change in free float? Have you evaluated a secondary public offering as a possible option?
[Foreign language]
[Foreign language]
As of today, we don't have such an agenda. In the future, if the shareholders prefer to do it and show a will and decision to do that, then beyond the agenda, but as of today, there's no agenda.
A last question, we noted a slide indicating an approximately seven-fold increase in the average internet speed provided to customers. Should we expect this to materially enhance your pricing power and revenue trajectory, or would you consider the impacts more limited?
[Foreign language]
As you know, in Turkey, the prices determined our speeds, and of course, for the subscriber base, it's very important to increase the speed of our strategy. We have been working on the high-speed packages for so long. Also, for the fixed roadmap, we know that speed is a very important component here for the revenue generation, and it makes an impact on the ARPU, and it makes a multiple effect on the revenue. Our main strategy is, yes, we are working on increasing the speeds, and it makes an effect on the ARPU, and then the...
Thanks for your understanding, Perdan Tez.
Thank you so much.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of [Das Simon] with [MNG] Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi, can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
Perfect. Yeah, it's a very simple question, really. I'm sorry, I only jumped on the call late, and I just want to clarify what your expected impact is going to be from the fee and the incremental CapEx commitment for the fiber in terms of leverage metrics, how you expect them to move as a result of these two things, and also if you expect any impact on your credit ratings as a result of this.
[Foreign language]
Thank you very much for your question. Actually, we haven't answered this question during this call. However, it's also a good opportunity for us to be able to emphasize, so we will be happy to answer your question.
[Foreign language]
For 2025, our CapEx intensity is 29% within our guidance.
[Foreign language]
Also, let me remind you that our current leverage ratio is 0.68x .
[Foreign language]
In the short term, we expect our CapEx intensity to be around the current levels, right?
[Foreign language]
For the mid to long term, we can expect the CapEx intensity to come down with the increase in revenue.
[Foreign language]
As our leverage, I mean, net debt to EBITDA would be also around the global peer, just the global standards. We don't expect it to make any effect on the rating.
[Foreign language]
Of course, we don't want to say anything binary for the rating agencies. We will be talking with them accordingly, but I can only tell you that now we have a very strong story. Our concessions have been expanded and renewed. We have a very strong story with the speed, with healthy ARPU and subscriber growth, and so many new opportunities and horizons in the coming 25 years ahead awaiting us.
[Foreign language]
All in all, we know that our leverage ratio is within the global standards and it will be around that level. Our CapEx intensity is right now 29% and we expect it to be around that level in the short term, not big variations. For the mid to long term, we expect it to come down a bit with the revenue increase. We see that there are so many opportunities ahead of us and we are very open.
Can I just follow up with when you say you think your leverage is around the global standard, what figure, what number do you put on that when you regard as the global standard?
[Foreign language]
You can take the sector average in global when you have it.
[Foreign language]
I mean, you know, I don't want to name a number here, but you know that will be in line with the sector standards, let's say, as is known by many.
[Foreign language]
Let me remind you one thing. I mean, I have said it in the call, in the beginning of the call, but let me repeat it again. This concession subject has not popped out of the blue, I mean, or 5G is also, you know, a subject that we have been steering for so long. I mean, for the concession only, we have been negotiating with development authorities for more than two years. Also, 5G is a very well-known matter, which will, come, before two years. These are the two very important agenda items that we have been getting our balance sheet ready. We have already brought down our leverage ratio to 0.68 times. What we are saying is, you know, global average here, when we talk about what we can expect.
We can only say that these two agenda items, these two items, concession and 5G , maximum make an effect to get us to global standards.
That's tremendous. Thank you very much. Very helpful.
Thank you so much.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Türk Telekom Management for any closing comments. Thank you.
Thank you everyone for joining us today. The developments are really fresh and really apparently with a lot of information. I'm sure you're going to have questions in the future. If you do, please reach us and we will help as best as we can. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling and have a good afternoon.