Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. (IST:TUPRS)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Oct 25, 2023

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Poppy, your conference call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Tüpraş Conference Call and Live Webcast to present and discuss the Q3 2023 financial results. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Doğan Korkmaz, CFO, and Mr. Levent Bayar, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Bayar, you may now proceed.

Levent Bayar
Head of Investor Relations, Tüpraş

Thank you. Hi everyone. Good evening to all from Tüpraş Headquarters in Istanbul, and welcome to our teleconference. I'm Levent Bayar, Head of Investor Relations. I am here with Doğan Korkmaz, CFO, and team members from Tüpraş Investor Relations and Reporting Department. Over the next hour, we will first go over our operational and financial results for the Q3 of 2023, then we will continue with the Q&A session. I'll draw your attention to our cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans, and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially. Please refer to our financial reports and material disclosures for more details. These documents are available on our website.

In the next two slides, we will provide you with a brief summary of the key highlights regarding the Q3 of 2023, then we will go into detail for each subject on the following slides.

Now let's take a look at Tüpraş highlights in detail for the Q3 of 2023. As you will see on the top chart, we have recorded highest net refining margin of 2023 in this quarter. Strong cracks and improved capacity utilization were the key factors driving this performance. We have ended the quarter at 8.4 million tons of sales, which also contributed to profitability growth. On the mid row, we have the free cash flow generation. In the Q3 of 2023, we have recorded 57.4 billion TRY of EBITDA, with 11.7 billion TRY improvement in working capital requirement and 4.6 billion TRY of CAPEX. We ended the quarter with near 65 billion TRY of free cash flow and almost $2 billion of net cash position.

At the bottom chart, we share an update about the zero-carbon electricity investments on our refining sites as part of our strategic transition plan. You can see actual photos of our solar power plants' first phase being operational in Kırıkkale, with 12.6 MW capacity. Installations for 5 MW capacity in Batman were also completed and are ongoing for 16.7 MW capacity in Kırıkkale. The capacities that we currently have operational and under construction have licenses, and we are selling produced power to the grid and creating revenue. As you know, we cover this section in two main components: developments in global oil markets and development in the Turkish market. Let's start with the top left box. Starting July, Brent showed an upward trend due to voluntary cut decisions of Saudi Arabia and Russia.

This movement continued as these production cuts were extended alongside increased Chinese oil demand and bullish inventory trends. In early October, Brent dropped with a large increase in U.S. gasoline inventories and low implied demand, and currently moves primarily with elevated geopolitical risks. Top right chart shows oil demand and refinery utilization rates in Europe. Starting with the Q3, refinery utilization rate in Europe started to come down with outages and slowdown in refinery processes due to the elevated temperatures in the region. On the contrary, oil demand increased with seasonal support that pushed down product inventories and supported cracks. Now taking a look at the bottom row, Turkish market. Based on the seventh month state, raw fuel demand was 12% higher than last year with robust gasoline demand and resilient diesel consumption.

Ongoing lower pump price of gasoline versus diesel continues to shape new passenger car choice towards gasoline-fueled cars. The bottom right chart shows evolution of jet fuel consumption in Turkey in 7 months that hit the highest level since August 2019. Turkey was among the top 10 countries in terms of air traffic numbers in the Q3. According to Eurocontrol, Istanbul Airport was the busiest airport in Europe during summer. In the Q3 of 2023, diesel cracks averaged at $31.5 per barrel, which was lower than the previous year when they were significantly higher quarter-on-quarter due to ongoing supply concerns as well as reduced production in Europe. High temperatures and outages also led to lower refinery utilization rates while demand remained elevated. Jet fuel cracks averaged at $30 per barrel in the Q3 and moved in line with mid-distillate pool.

European flight numbers reached 93% of September 2019 levels, according to Eurocontrol data. Europe experienced a seasonal peak in jet fuel demand in August, and increased air travel in China during the summer season further supported the global product balance. Gasoline cracks averaged at $28 per barrel in the Q3, marking an increase from the previous year's $17 per barrel. This increase was attributed to switching into summer grades, robust demand during the high season, and a tight supply environment. High sulfur fuel oil cracks averaged around -$8 per barrel in the Q3 of 2023, showing improvement year-over-year. OPEC's production cut decision played a significant role in supporting HSFO cracks, and strong feedstock demand from the United States and Asian refineries also contributed to this as well.

In October, mid-distillates were positively impacted by Russia's export ban while gasoline cracks softened with switching into the winter grades. High sulfur fuel oil discount widened with higher Brent, as steady unwinding of OPEC cuts has already been priced in. Moving over to the crude price differentials. Heavy crude differentials continue to narrow in the Q3 as a result of lower crude supply after OPEC+ second cut decision. In terms of our oil slate, the impact has been somewhat muted with the help of wider differentials offered by Basra Heavy in this quarter. Today, heavy crude differentials' outlook for the rest of the year points out further narrowing with the controlled crude supply conditions. Still, potential developments regarding regional conflicts, decisions of oil producers, macro indicators, and their influence on demand outlook will play a crucial role in determining the market conditions.

Now let's take a look at Tüpraş operations, starting with the production volume. On the left-hand side, you can see our production volumes. Our total production in the Q3 of 2023 was 7.1 million tons. Heavy maintenances were completed during the first half, and some minor checkups were done this quarter ahead of next year's roof maintenance. Our total crude distillation capacity utilization was 89%, and other feedstock capacity utilization was at 10%, reaching to 99% for the whole system in the Q3 of 2023. Moving over to the sales. Let's start with the chart on the left-hand side. In the Q3, our domestic sales and international sales reached 6.7 and 1.7 million tons, respectively, summing up to 8.4 million tons in total. Our domestic sales were up by 2% year-over-year.

7% contraction in domestic diesel sales and 15% weaker bitumen sales were more than covered by strong performance in gasoline and jet fuel that increased by 26% and 23% year-over-year, respectively. Now let's move to the electricity operations. This slide summarizes electricity production and sales activities of Entek in the Q3 of 2023. Entek produced a total of 447 GWh of electricity in the Q3 of 2023. Production growth versus last year remained limited due to lower hydrology this year. In the Q3, 68% of the electricity generated was from hydropower, 13% was from wind power, and the rest was CCGT. Out of 365 GWh of zero-carbon electricity produced, around 31% was sold to feed-in tariffs, which is $73 per MWh, and the rest was sold to the spot market. Now let's move to the financials.

Now let's take a look at the P&L items in detail for the Q3 of 2023. Revenues came in at TRY 185 billion, equivalent to almost $7 billion in the Q3 of 2023. The year-on-year change in revenues is mostly driven by 50% depreciation in Turkish lira, as Brent prices decreased by 14% while stronger cracks were also supportive for the quarter. Cost of goods sold decreased by 16%, in parallel with year-over-year decrease in Brent prices and lower energy costs. Natural gas tariff price for Tüpraş in the Q3 of 2023 is 22% lower than last year's Q3 tariff. Gross profit increased to TRY 33 billion from TRY 19 billion with higher cracks and lower energy costs.

Increase in operational expenses was mainly due to higher personnel expenses, provision for donations related to the earthquake relief, and increase in logistic expenses parallel to Turkish lira depreciation. Loss from other operations, which mainly stems from Turkish lira devaluation of payables, was 43% lower than last year. Less volatility in dollar versus lira compared to last year resulted in less FX impact on trade payables. TRY 1 million income was recorded from equity investments, coming dominantly from OPEC. In the Q3, TRY 756 million net financial expenses were recorded with TRY 2.1 billion of negative FX impact and TRY 1.5 billion of net interest income. As a conclusion of these, we have recorded TRY 21.3 billion of profit before tax in the Q3 of 2023. Below profit before tax, we have recorded TRY 5.7 million of tax due to higher statutory tax base.

As a result, we have recorded TRY 21.3 billion of net income in the Q3 of 2023. Our EBITDA CCS materialized at TRY 26.8 billion year-over-year. Increase was mainly driven by strong crack margins. TRY 580 million of this EBITDA was recorded from our electricity production company, Entek. While our hedging methodology helped us to mitigate the Brent pricing risk for approximately two-thirds of our crude oil inventory, we recorded around TRY 3.3 billion of positive inventory effect, mainly due to depreciation in Turkish lira. Consequently, our reported EBITDA materialized at TRY 30.1 billion, which almost doubled of last year's same period. Now let's take a look at the profit before tax breaks. As you can see from the waterfall chart, TRY 8 billion of positive impact came from stronger cracks while heavy crude differentials narrowed year-over-year.

Energy costs were lower with lower natural gas tariffs. Total positive impact was TRY 1.5 billion. Contribution from inventory impact was also positive with TRY 2.9 billion due to depreciation in Turkish lira. Net interest and FX effect were positive with TRY 2.6 billion as our net cash position increased further in this quarter while FX losses were limited as well. All in all, Q3 of 2023 profit before taxes materialized at TRY 27.1 billion. Now let's take a look at financial highlights. In the Q3 of 2023, we have recorded TRY 30 billion of EBITDA, 70% above last year's same period. Accordingly, we recorded TRY 21.3 billion of net profit in the Q3, almost double year-over-year.

We maintained our net cash position with strong EBITDA generation and disciplined working capital management, and with ongoing deleveraging of our net debt to EBITDA materialized at negative 0.7 times as of the end of the Q3 of 2023. With strong cash generation, our current ratio remained the same as 1.3 times. On the bottom right panel, we have the return on equity. As you can see, return on equity continues to remain at a very high level with 90% as of the end of the Q3. Now let's continue with the details of our balance sheet. Cash and cash equivalents and financial liabilities at the end of the Q3 were TRY 87 billion and TRY 33 billion, respectively. We ended the quarter with TRY 53.3 billion of net cash, mainly with the help of strong operational cash generation.

On the working capital side, with the help of the measures that we have been implementing and with lower volatility in prices, our working capital requirement turned negative to TRY 6.9 billion at the end of the Q3. We ended the quarter with TRY 87 billion of cash position, more than double of the outstanding debt. Now looking at the maintenance calendar for 2023. We operated with 99% utilization rate in the Q3, with major maintenances complete within the first half. In the Q3, we operated with higher materially higher capacity utilization compared to the first half. We will have a seasonal maintenance for Batman Refinery in the Q4. Now on this slide, we have our expectations for 2023.

Looking into the details, with better than expected crack margins, we are revising up our net refining margin estimate from $10-$11 per barrel to $11-$12 per barrel. Regarding sales, production, and capacity utilization figures, there are no changes in our expectations. Our consolidated CAPEX target for 2023 did not change and is at $360 million. This remains in line with our previously announced long-term strategic transition plan, and we will spend around 60% of this CAPEX on sustainability-focused energy efficiency and environmental projects. Before we conclude, on this slide, we would like to sum up some of the key figures for the first nine months and compare them against our revised 2023 guidance. We had a net refining margin of $13.3 per barrel in the first nine months of 2023, which is above our full-year revised guidance range of $11-$12 per barrel.

Higher than expected cracks were the main reason for the outperformance. Capacity utilization was at 84% in the first nine months of 2023, which is slightly below the low end of our guidance range of 85%-90%. As explained earlier, with higher utilization in the Q4, we expected to remain within the guidance range. In the nine months of 2023, we have produced 18 million tons and sold 22 million tons of products. We have spent $210 million in the first nine months of 2023. We had about 50% of our CAPEX in sustainability-focused investment areas, lower than our target of 60% for the whole year due to tanker investments made by Ditaş. As our transition-related investments continue, we expect to meet our 60% ESG-focused investment guidance for the full year. This slide concludes our presentation, and we can now proceed to the Q&A session.

Operator

The first question comes from the line of Jonathan Lamb with Wood & Company. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Lamb
Director of Oil & Gas Research Analyst, Wood & Company

Good afternoon. Congratulations on a great set of results. I was just looking at the big pile of cash that Tüpraş has at the moment, and I wonder if we're going to see soon some ideas on how that might be invested or returned to shareholders because you seem to be generating large amounts of cash every quarter at the moment. Thanks.

Doğan Korkmaz
CFO, Tüpraş

Thank you, Jonathan. It's Doğan here. Yeah, the cash pileup is slightly above $3 billion at the moment. Part of it is obviously seasonal. And mind you, there is still a dividend distribution which happened in the first day of this month, so that will be decreased from that amount.

We're spending around $350 million for CapEx at the moment, and it will be the run rate going forward during our transition period. But there might be years that we might spend a bit more on CapEx, but there are obviously limitations on new business areas. We're very keen on building up a lot of electricity, green electricity capacity at the beginning because it's feasible. But when it comes to hydrogen investments or H2 electrolysis, it's not feasible yet. Hence, we are expecting it to happen as we get closer to 2030. In the case of SAF, yes, we are still in the planning phase, detailed engineering phase of our SAF production plan, but I'm not expecting anything happening on the ground in our refineries in the short period of time, which would mean another, I mean, less spending for the coming year.

Our dividend distribution target is 80% on average. Mind you, we distributed slightly more than that this year with the availability of cash. But I must say you know very well that the cash has never been the bottleneck for dividend distribution in the case of Tüpraş. I mean, the distribution is usually capped by the limitations on the income, annual income, as per Turkish regulation. Therefore, in the long run, yes, we are expecting still good levels of cash. We said that EBITDA would always be lower than one, but we need to accept the fact that at the moment, there's a bit of a cash pileup. Not a one-off, but slightly higher than long-term targets. And working capital requirement is negative at the moment. In the last couple of quarters, they were positive. So it is a bit volatile depending on the mix.

It's not because we changed the terms with any of our customers or suppliers. So we need to keep some cash for that purpose as well. And last but not least, obviously, being in this part of the world, although we got a very good rating upgrade from the rating agency, we still have a quite long way to go until we, I mean, we are upgraded to an investment grade. Until that happens, having the more cash you have, the more somewhat comfortable you are in an emerging environment.

Jonathan Lamb
Director of Oil & Gas Research Analyst, Wood & Company

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Uncertain with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good afternoon. Congratulations with very strong set of results. I have one question on green energy portfolio and regarding this 55 MW of approved capacity, which is at planning phase.

Just wanted to check when can we expect some kind of details on this project. Thank you.

Levent Bayar
Head of Investor Relations, Tüpraş

Thank you for your question. I mean, these investments are quite different to investments in refining, so they usually happen in a matter of months once you have the green light from the authorities. So those investments that you have mentioned are waiting for the authorization for the licenses. Once we have those, I guess, I mean, it will be finished in a matter of, I mean, maximum of a couple of quarters.

Speaker 6

Understood. Thank you.

Levent Bayar
Head of Investor Relations, Tüpraş

Thank you.

Operator

.We have a follow-up question from the line of Jonathan Lamb with Wood & Company. Please go ahead. Mr. Lamb, can you hear us?

Jonathan Lamb
Director of Oil & Gas Research Analyst, Wood & Company

Sorry. I was on mute. I noticed that the contribution from OPEC increased substantially over the same quarter last year. What's the reason for that?

Levent Bayar
Head of Investor Relations, Tüpraş

A good question, Jonathan.

They are performing fairly better this year. There is a bit of a contribution from stock gains. Remember, there was a tax adjustment in special consumption tax recently, and that helped Turkish distributors who had their stocks.

Jonathan Lamb
Director of Oil & Gas Research Analyst, Wood & Company

So it's a little bit of a one-off?

Levent Bayar
Head of Investor Relations, Tüpraş

Well, partly, I would say.

Jonathan Lamb
Director of Oil & Gas Research Analyst, Wood & Company

Okay. Partly a normalization?

Levent Bayar
Head of Investor Relations, Tüpraş

Yeah.

Jonathan Lamb
Director of Oil & Gas Research Analyst, Wood & Company

Okay. Thank you.

Levent Bayar
Head of Investor Relations, Tüpraş

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Nikhil Gupta with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Nikhil Gupta
Executive Director of Global Technology, JPMorgan Chase

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I just have one. Looking at the currency breakdown of your cash holdings, the portion of cash that you're holding in Turkish lira, or at least held at the end of Q3s, quite high compared to recent quarters. I was just curious, is this because of the dividend payment upcoming, or is that something we should expect going forward?

Levent Bayar
Head of Investor Relations, Tüpraş

Thank you. Another very good question.

Yes, you're completely right. There is an increase in our Turkish lira holdings because in the beginning of the year, there was less of an availability in forwards in Turkish market, whereas after the election, the forward market is open. And especially right after the election, during the initial stages of the summer, the rates for forwards were very favorable if you were expecting a rate hike. So we capitalized on that, and we used more forwards than getting straight hard currency ourselves. Therefore, it created a buildup of Turkish liras, which gets favorable rates in case of deposits. Therefore, we somewhat balance our FX exposure more with forwards at the moment than we did in the beginning of the year.

Nikhil Gupta
Executive Director of Global Technology, JPMorgan Chase

Thank you. Sorry, just to follow up, is this a sort of proportion that we should expect Tüpraş to maintain going forward, or will it be variable and you'll look to be opportunistic depending on how the forward markets are?

Levent Bayar
Head of Investor Relations, Tüpraş

Exactly. I mean, if you were to hedge yourself with forwards in the beginning of the summer for a long period of time, it would create you an arbitrage, which was the case in the case of Tüpraş. In return, you get deposit rates in Turkish lira for that period. If we still have favorable rates in forwards in the future, we would definitely go for forwards. If not, we would switch them to hard currencies ourselves. It would definitely depend on the arbitrage. It will be opportunistic, as you have mentioned.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to management for any closing comments. Thank you.

Levent Bayar
Head of Investor Relations, Tüpraş

Thank you. I take it as the results being appreciated, as we had less of a question this time. But again, thank you once again for joining us this evening for the quarterly call. Before we conclude, I'd like to share a few closing remarks as well. It has been another remarkable quarter marked by record high profitability and a robust cash position. During the first half of the year, we have completed the majority of maintenance activities, allowing us to close the Q3 with higher capacity utilization. This comes at a time when many European refineries were experiencing lower runs, while we have benefited from a strong crack environment and increased seasonal demand. Looking ahead to the final quarter of the year, we acknowledge the rising geopolitical risks and increasing uncertainties.

As we transition into the winter, we anticipate some softening in the cracks, but we are confident in staying within our guidance range. During our presentation, we shared our significant progress in expanding our zero-carbon electricity portfolio, reflecting our commitment to our transition plan. We will continue to work on our plan and disclose developments accordingly. We have also successfully distributed second dividend to our shareholders during this quarter, and we still continue to have a very strong cash balance. I appreciate your time and trust in our company. Thank you all for listening to us today, and wish you a great day ahead.

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