Thank you. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our call, and welcome to Ülker Bisküvi's Q4 operational and financial webcast. Today, with me are CFO Fulya Banu Sürücü in the room. She will be delivering the key highlights of the year and quarter. Before turning the call to her, I kindly remind you that, as part of our ongoing commitment to maintaining transparent and effective communication with our investor community, we invite you to participate in our investor perception survey. Your feedback is critical in helping us understand your perspectives and improve our communication and strategy. Please take a few minutes to complete the survey during the Q&A session. Now, I hand over to our CFO, Fulya Banu Sürücü. Fulya Banu Sürücü, please go ahead.
Thank you, Beste. Thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. I am very pleased to share that we have delivered outstanding results for 2024, another very strong year for Ülker Bisküvi, with growth in every KPI versus prior years. When we take a look at the snapshot of 2024, key achievements definitely: robust growth, robust growth in every KPI. We delivered 2.4% growth in volume, 4.3% revenue reaching to TRY 84.1 billion, beating the latest guidance that we submitted to you in Q3, and 1.9% EBITDA growth reaching to TRY 15.6 billion. We delivered 18.5% EBITDA margin on a full-year basis, again beating our latest guidance that we gave in Q3. When we continue taking a look at our key achievements, in July 2024, the company issued the first sustainability bond with a great success.
With a seven-year maturity, it was the first sustainability bond of Ülker Bisküvi, which shows our great success in terms of sustainability. Speaking of sustainability, for the second time in a row, we became the world leader in LSEG, London Stock Exchange Sustainability Index, among 400 food companies, and we ranked first globally for the second time in a row. Innovation is part of our Ülker Bisküvi culture. The very strong innovation momentum also continued in 2024. We had 51 new launches, including Dubai chocolate. We also, as you may have seen, took the advantage of being the first in the market for Dubai chocolate with a branded company. In terms of culture, we have a great culture in Ülker Bisküvi, and four years in a row, we have been recognized as the top employer of Türkiye, and it also happened four years in a row.
In terms of what happened with the marketing and our market leadership position, we maintained our leadership position in main snacking categories. We are a market leader with a strong presence and with a great market leadership position. We have 25% market share in snacking market share, and Ulker chocolate is crowned as Türkiye's most beloved chocolate brand, which is really great. We celebrated 80 years of Ulker's festival Bisküvi this year. For the last 80 years, Ulker is becoming stronger and stronger and more and more beloved by the people in the regions that we operate in. Key achievements, very strong market leadership, but at the same time, very strong financial performance in all P&L, cash flow, and balance sheet as well. We maintained a rock-solid balance sheet with increasing cash flow, and the Net Debt/EBITDA reached to 1.08.
Very healthy, very strong Net Debt/ EBITDA performance. Ulker's rating is above sovereign by Fitch and S&P as of today. You may remember, just prior to our Eurobond issuance in July 2024, we have granted three notch increases at one time by S&P, which happened first time in capital markets of Türkiye, and which also happens very rarely in global markets. We are so proud of that great achievement. Our balance sheet became stronger and stronger. We included ESG as part of our syndication portfolio in this year with EUR 75 million investment, and net income reached to TRY 7.4 billion, delivering 8.8%, which is high single digits and which is a great number and also a great growth versus prior year in terms of net income. Speaking of sustainability, I would like to talk about sustainability a little bit more on the second page.
We have a great strength and great strong muscle in terms of sustainability, where the journey started 10 years ago. I have just shared that, I mean, we became the first globally ranked, first globally in ESG performance among 450 food companies by London Stock Exchange. It is a global achievement. We also joined Borsa Istanbul's Sustainability 25 Index. Carbon emissions and water consumptions also decreased, and we were also able to give trainings with our modern cocoa and modern hazelnut programs to our local farmers and also to the families in the Cocoa manufacturing area. Definitely great to see the recognitions that we have received from very reputable, important, and big institutions, one of them being Ülker Bisküvi's project, Fast Company awarded by the Fast Company Türkiye at the Türkiye Agriculture Awards. We won the ISO Green Transformation Award in the sustainability management category.
With our Eurobonds, we received four awards at the Global Banking and Markets CEE, CIS, and Türkiye Awards, including ESG Bond Deal of the Year. We became the world leader in LSEG, and we were the only Turkish food company to reach the final stage with three projects in the EBIT Sustainable Business Awards. We became the top employer four years in a row. I think these are all great achievements recognized by the other parties as well. Ulker maintained its leadership position in Türkiye's snacking market by also being the top player in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. As you can see, Türkiye growth was 6.6% in terms of revenue and 13.3% in terms of EBITDA growth. In North Africa and the Middle East, we have seen great growth numbers in terms of revenue and EBITDA as well.
In Central Asia, revenue growth is pretty much in line, but there have been some EBITDA decreases. Türkiye exports decreased versus prior year, mainly driven by FX movements being stable over, especially the last year. When we take a look at the revenue breakdown, with the latest numbers, we see that local domestic numbers drive TRY 58.6 billion revenue, whereas international drives TRY 25.5 billion. Net revenue by division is approximately, I mean, 70% domestic and 13% is PR export. You can see the breakdown by Central Asia, North Africa, and Middle East on page nine. Global market share, again, very strong year. We were able to maintain and sustain and improve our very strong market share position. Türkiye, 35% market share. Middle East, 27%. We are number one in biscuits, and North Africa, 15%, and Central Asia, 16% in terms of chocolate and chocolate category.
Innovation is extremely important, and as you can see, our innovation revenue driven by innovation increased up to 15% in domestic and driving in total 12%, including the international market as well. Financial performance. Before we dive into the figures, let's take a look at the environment we operated in in 2024 and the years before that. There have been, as always, many challenges that we had to navigate, but we navigated all through these challenges, uncertainties, and volatilities very, very successfully and delivered strong results. What were those? Some of them, not all of them, on the page challenges? Cocoa prices. Approximately 50% of our portfolio is made up from chocolate and chocolate-covered products, maybe including them more than that. Cocoa prices increased significantly, especially in 2024.
As you can see, taking 2018 as the base, Cocoa prices increased in December as of December 2024 by under 39%. There has been a continuous inflation. I mean, we lived in the, especially in the last three to three and a half years in the hyperinflationary environment in Türkiye, especially. You can see the 64%, 65%, 44% inflation numbers, and they just increased. Changing average in USD, Turkish Lira parity sometimes helped us. It sometimes did not support us, depending. Those are all the things that we had to navigate and go through all these challenges. I am also not mentioning others like political, geopolitical, and I mean, all the volatilities and uncertainties that are happening in our region. What is the end result, I mean, of our 2024 numbers? Volume increased by 2%.
Total revenue increased by 4%, reaching TRY 84 billion, beating the estimate guidance that we shared with you. Gross profit reaching to 29.8% and delivering at 7% in terms of absolute value number. With ongoing cost discipline, sound, mix, and pricing management, we were able to deliver these gross profit percentages and gross profit numbers. EBITDA, 18.5%, again beating our guidance, delivering a 2% growth versus prior year. Net income, high single digit, 8.8%, 52% growth versus prior year, which is a significant achievement. All the actions, hard work in terms of operations, commercial, and finance is the end result of our net income that we delivered by the end of 2024. The breakdown by region, domestic versus international, you see that in terms of domestic, we were able to increase our revenue by 7%.
Gross profit increased by 16%, reaching to 27.6%, 27.6% gross profit margin. EBITDA reaching to 18.4% and 13% increase. Very healthy, very strong. With the FX rates not being stable and the FX rate and inflation uncorrelation, not moving correlated over the last one year, impacted our international EBITDA growth and numbers, even though our revenue is pretty much in line with what we delivered last year. We were able to cover the gap from the increase of our domestic sales. We were also conscious that we were managing the portfolio, international and domestic altogether, and we were trying to balance the gaps from one of them to another. Only quarterly numbers, if we take a look at Q4 numbers, and after Q3, we have taken a lot of actions to make sure that we reach our, I mean, at minimum level, our guidance.
You see the end result or the results of what we delivered in Q4 and all the actions and all the items that we have taken, all paid off. Volume is pretty much in line with what was last year, slight decrease versus prior year, but revenue increased by 7%. Gross profit increased by 14%, reaching to 29.2%. Gross profit margin almost 2% increased versus prior year. EBITDA reaching to 18% from 17.3%. As you can see, EBITDA apple to apple with inflation accounting numbers adjusted is higher than EBITDA margin than versus what we had last year. Net income this time, double digits, 12.1% net income, delivering 60% growth versus prior year and, I mean, reaching at TRY 2.7 billion net income. We continued cost discipline, efficient purchasing strategies leading to improved profitability of Q4.
Gross profit percentage increase, the trend of the gross profit increase percentage increase that we have experienced over the many, many quarters in the last three years. This happened again, and this quarter, we were able to increase on a small basis our gross profit margin percentage as well. Consolidated volume and revenue contribution, you can see on page 17, Bisküvi Chocolate and Cake breakdown in terms of volume and sales value. As you can see, despite huge increases in Cocoa, our chocolate volume share reaches to 35% in Q4. In terms of value, it increases to 55% higher than what we had last year. You can also see the breakdown of chocolate, biscuit, and cake, 56%, 35%, 9% in terms of volume. In terms of value, it's 38%, 65%, and 7%.
International operations, EBITDA % development, you can see North Africa reaching to 13.1%, Middle East 19.5%, and Central Asia 15.2%. In terms of gross profit, all these regions' gross profits increased versus prior years. When it comes to EBITDA, it increased marketing expenses. We increased focus on our marketing activities to drive a better awareness in terms of market share and to increase our and sustain our market share performance. EBITDA percentages are slightly lower than prior year. In terms of balance sheet highlights, as I have shared, we continued to strengthen our balance sheet. New members like IFC became part of our syndication portfolio. High focus on strengthening and balance sheet and sustaining the liquidity continued throughout this year as well. Net EBITDA is 1.08 by the end of December. Focus on optimization of working capital continued. We ended up 97 days.
In terms of highlights, key highlights, as you already know, we have a hedge policy, and at the end of the year, we delivered 77% of the net position is closed via financial derivative instruments. Eurobond financing is completed very, very successfully with very favorable rates within the market at the time that we operated. Above sovereign rating performance from which an S&P Ulker is rated better than the sovereign by the end of the year. How we delivered? We said that we are going to deliver TRY 80 billion net sales and 18.2% in terms of EBITDA margin, but we were able to catch up the guidance that we gave at the beginning of the year by reaching TRY 84.1 billion and EBITDA margin reaching to 18.5%. Overall, Ulker demonstrated financial resilience, market leadership, and sustainability excellence.
With strong investments in technology, innovation, and sustainability, we strongly believe that we are well positioned for continued success in 2025 as well.
Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much for the presentation. We will now be moving to the question and answer session. In the meantime, we are opening a quick survey for our web participants. Your feedback is highly valued and appreciated. For questions, if you are joining via telephone, please press star two on your keypad to ask a voice question. If you are connected via the web, you may submit either a voice or a text question. We'll now give a minute or so for the questions to come in. Okay. We have our first question from Evgeniya from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Hello. Thank you very much. Congrats on the results, and thank you for the presentation.
I have several questions. My first one, I know that you will provide more guidance after Q1, but could you please maybe touch briefly on your margin outlook for 2025? My second question is regarding what are your plans for the repayment of the remaining part of the bond and also for the refinancing or repayment of the syndicated loan, which is maturing early 2026? My final question is regarding your non-trade receivables. There was some decrease during 2024. Could you please remind us if there was a direct cash inflow from the shareholder or related parties, and what was the reason for that? Thank you.
Thank you so much for the questions. As you know, we always give our 2025 New Year guidance in our Q1 when we issue our Q1 numbers and when we deliver our Q1 webcast meeting.
However, what I can tell you is, I mean, as a principle or as an objective, our first priority is to sustain our very strong market leader position with increased revenue and sustain the profitability margin. So sustain volume, revenue profitably with a strong balance sheet. From this, you can estimate or you can just state that we do not want to decrease. We will do everything to sustain our margin. However, also having said that, 2025 will be a very challenging year, very difficult year, tough year like all the three and four years that we have experienced. That is all I can tell you right now. At the beginning of May, when we issue our Q1 numbers, we will be sharing our 2025 guidance with revenue and EBITDA margin numbers.
Regarding the financing plans for remaining Eurobond, in October 2025, the remaining balance of the prior Eurobond will be closed. We have plans accordingly, and we have cash in order to close it. There will be no issue or problem. It will go very smooth. Regarding the syndication 2026, yes, the time is coming, but we have already started talking with our key finance business partners. We have already started building our strategy, finance strategy. There is very high interest, but we already have very strong commercial and banks and two very important DFIs who are part of our syndication, EBRD and IFC. They kind of represent the majority of our outstanding current syndication loan. With a high interest from all the banks where we have very strong finance business partners, commercial and DFIs, I believe that we will go through that very successfully.
Our results are excellent. Our balance sheet is very strong. We have already started formulating our strategy for the syndication. Regarding your third question, it is mainly related to FX inflation and FX inflation and interest accruals are the main reason of the change. There are Turkish Lira and foreign currency components of the balance. Mixed impacts of FX and interest. There is no cash injection from the shareholders regarding the change of the balance.
Thank you very much. That is very clear and appreciate the color. Just maybe one quick follow-up regarding your syndication. You are not considering any potential new Eurobond issuers. You would rather choose the banks for the refinancing, right?
It is not 100% finalized, but it looks like most probably we will go ahead to continue to work with our banks.
In order to diversify the risks, we have our Eurobond. We have Eurobond investors, and we have bank syndication. I mean, the portfolio is different. In order to diversify the risk, I think we will prefer to go to work with, to continue to work with the banks. Again, nothing is 100% finalized yet.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Okay. Thank you very much. We'll be now moving to the next question from Alvira from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open now.
Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for the call. I have just a quick question in regards of your gross margin outlook for 2025. I was wondering how you see it evolving because, I mean, Q4, definitely your gross profit increased quite substantially.
I was wondering how much is due to the hedging policy that you have on raw materials. Maybe you can also update us on where you stand in terms of hedging Cocoa and other key raw materials at this point of time and how we should think about, maybe, I mean, a lagged effect in 2025? Thank you.
Thank you for the question. We have a very proactive procurement strategy where we continuously hedge key raw materials. It is a policy. Those key raw materials are Cocoa, sugar, wheat, and oil, and in some parts it includes nuts as well. We take actions on a continuous basis for the next 6-12 months. What I can tell you is that I'm not losing any sleep over our business continuity in 2025 as well.
You can trust that the way we managed it in 2024 and 2023, despite these very high Cocoa increases, I strongly believe and trust that we will also manage all these raw materials procurements very, very successfully. This hedging is on a continuous basis, and I can tell you that 2025 is pretty much guaranteed or in good shape in terms of coverage. Regarding the gross margin, yes, Q4 was great, overall 2024 was great. In Q4, I cannot tell you that this is because of hedging, and yet everything is covered into that. It includes pricing, mixed management, effective cost management, excellent supply chain system. On top of that, I mean, very successful procurement strategies and implementation of these procurement strategies. This will continue.
I mean, our company became stronger and stronger, and I can see that Ülker Bisküvi is stronger as of 2025 in terms of all these, how we manage procurement supply chain. You can trust that we will continue to give importance or focus to sustain our gross margin %. Again, having said that, very tough year, very challenging year where consumer power is decreasing. Again, I believe that we will be able to navigate them successfully. We will be sharing more color and more figures at the beginning of May.
Thank you.
Okay. Thank you very much. We are now moving to the next question that comes from Gustavo from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Hello. Yeah. Thank you very much for the presentation, and congratulations on the strong results.
Firstly, if I could, could you please provide a rough breakdown of your domestic and international sales logs? Sorry.
Thank you for—no. Sorry. Sorry. I thought I was talking that I was muted on mute. Yes, domestic margins, Turkey exports, and we can kind of break it down between, I mean, Turkey exports, Turkey domestic, and the other operations. With Turkey export operations, we see a decline versus prior years. As I have shared, there is this uncorrelation between FX and inflation that impacted us and hit us in terms of export operations. However, this is Turkey export operations. We were able to cover it from increased domestic Turkey domestic sales and other regions' operation sales. When I look at Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia numbers, I see that their EBITDA margin and gross profit margin also increased versus prior year.
Turkey's domestic operations also increased in terms of EBITDA margin and gross profit margin. In fact, a couple of points. What I can share is we know that we are managing a portfolio. There might be a hit or unfavorability in one part of the portfolio, but we were able to cover it from Turkey domestic operations and Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia operations. That is how we were able to deliver great results. I mean, FX rate, inflation rate, the uncorrelation is not within our control. We tried to manage it as best as we can, but what was in our control is to cover it from Turkey domestic operations and other operations, and you see the results.
Yes. Thank you very much.
I was looking more for a percentage of breakdown in volumes, like out of your total stacking volumes, like how much percentage is attributed to the domestic segment and how much percentage is attributed to the international segment, just so that I have an idea of unit economics of the business.
Yeah. I mean, for Turkey operations, total volume increased approximately by 1%, and international operations all increased by approximately 6% overall.
Okay. That is, sorry. Could you repeat that, sir?
Yeah. In terms of volume, in terms of volume, Turkey operations increased in terms of volume approximately around 1%, whereas international operations increased by 6% in terms of volume, if that's what you're asking.
Yes. Okay. Yeah. Thank you very much. That's helpful.
I was also wondering, I understand that you are covered, for example, for Cocoa prices for most of 2025. If you could elaborate, how much higher do you expect average cost of Cocoa prices to be in 2025 relative to 2024?
We do not disclose, I mean, detailed breakdown of our cost structure, but you know how much Cocoa price increase. You know the Cocoa price trends, and we have a proactive procurement strategy from that. You can calculate overall something, but unfortunately, we do not disclose the breakdown of our cost structure.
Sorry if I was not clear. I was wondering how much is expected to increase for Ulker, including hedging policy and your hedged prices.
Our hedged numbers are, I would say, quite healthy.
With our hedged numbers, I do not expect a significant increase, but in terms of Cocoa, we are pretty much covered for 2025, and some part of 2026 is also covered in terms of, I mean, Cocoa hedging. Hope that helps.
Understood. Yes. Yeah. Thank you very much. Also, any expected acquisitions in the horizon that you guys could see in 2025?
No. Nothing is on the pipeline in 2025.
Right. Thank you. Lastly, as far as your net leverage target for the medium-term horizon, it was like 1.1 end of the year. How do you expect it to evolve, and what is the target range for you guys?
Sure. Sure. Sure. Thank you.
Our strategy, our objective is to sustain the strong balance sheet, and to sustain the strong balance sheet, I mean, one of the main drivers is having a very healthy net debt EBITDA number. We do not disclose it, I mean, strict number, but what I can tell you is having a healthy net debt EBITDA number and sustaining it is a very key objective to sustain this very strong balance sheet. I mean, anything below 2 and a half will be a very healthy number.
Understood. Yeah. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. Now we are moving to the next question from Cemal from Ata Yatirim . Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Thank you for the presentation and congratulations for the good results. Actually, after Q3, it's good to see very, very good numbers. Congratulations again.
My first question is about the demand conditions in the Q1 of the year. In the Q1, in most of the cases, the profitability has been higher in the Q1, maybe seasonally, if I'm not wrong. How do you see the trend, at least in the first couple of months? Do you see the volume growth at this initial signal? That's my first question about the color so far. The other question is, of course, the dividend policy, dividend side. Now you are at a healthy net debt to EBITDA, which is, again, congratulations of this number. I would like to just ask that, do you plan to distribute any dividends from this year's earnings? Thank you very much.
Thank you,Cemal , for the questions and your comments.
Regarding Q1, I can say that we started good, but there definitely are sensitivities and challenges in terms of volume and other KPIs as well. I mean, I believe that we started good. Again, we will share the numbers at the beginning of May, including our 2025 guidance. Regarding dividend policy, dividend distribution is dividends can be distributed upon the board approval and general council approval. This can happen in the first half of the year. Again, we do not have any dividend numbers to be declared as of today. Upon the approval of board and general assembly, if they decide to distribute, we will definitely let you know. As of today, there is no news regarding dividends.
Thank you,Fulya . Thank you.
Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. We are now moving to the next question from Anjali from Nuveen . Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Once again, Anjali from Nuveen, your line is open now. Please go ahead. Anjali, if you're with us, we cannot hear you. Can you maybe double-check the microphone on your—Hello?
Hello. Yes. Yes. Now we can hear you. Sorry about that. I was muted. Thank you so much for the call today. Most of my questions have been answered. Just two more from my side. One is on working capital. I think that working capital is at 97, up a little bit from the prior year. I think in the past, it was discussed that something closer to 90 might be sort of the target. Just wanted to have an update from you in terms of how you're thinking about working capital in 2025, what's sort of the optimal level going forward.
My second question is really just going back to the international business. While when we look at sort of the impact of both the inflation and the FX has driven sort of the margins down, but if we look over the history, it's kind of been structurally coming down. I just wanted to understand the drivers there beyond if there are drivers beyond just what we're seeing on the more recent FX and inflation impacts. If you see sort of a potential for that to kind of stabilize or increase sustainably going forward, what do you kind of see in each of those businesses in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, sort of the kind of achievable EBITDA margin? Also with respect to market share gains, what do you see sort of this potential opportunity over the next couple of years?
Thank you for the questions. Let me start with the first question. Regarding working capital, what we always communicated to our investment community is that the objective is not to minimize working capital, but the objective is to optimize working capital. I mean, working capital is, as always, at a healthy level. There is a slight increase versus prior year, and it is mainly driven due to the phasing of the receivable. When we take a look at the phasing, there have been some increases in terms of the sales increases of our third-party distribution company. We have seen that it kind of decreased in Q4. It became at a very healthy level, and we expect it to continue. Our focus on working capital in 2025 will also continue.
There will be definitely a high focus and a high priority to optimize working capital as well. You will not see huge increases in working capital. You will see always optimized working capital numbers. This is something that I can definitely guarantee you on that. Regarding international operations, as I have shared, again, let me summarize. In terms of our international operations, their gross margins in fact increased versus prior year. We see that, for instance, in Middle East, very healthy gross margins with an increased volume and gross margin percentage. We see the same trend in North Africa business. Again, high sales volume growth with gross margin percentage increases versus prior year. Even in Central Asia, where we had a huge market slowdown in Central Asia, in Kazakhstan, we see a slight volume decrease.
We see a volume decrease, but we do not see a gross margin contraction. In fact, gross margin percentage stays the same way. In Central Asia, despite the sales volume decrease, we did not lose any market share. Everything was, I mean, we were able to sustain our market share, very healthy and strong market share position. The EBITDA margin decreases are mainly due to the high marketing-related expenses to boost our market share and to sustain and strengthen our very strong position in those regions. Again, increase in Cocoa prices, geopolitical instabilities definitely affected our international business. We expect, as I have shared, since our gross margins are at a very healthy level with an increase versus prior year in terms of gross margin percentage, I do not see any issue regarding in 2025. In fact, we should expect stronger results from our international businesses.
Hope that helps.
Yes. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. Now we'll be moving to the next question from Rontary, JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Sorry. Did you call for Hanzade are they?
Yes. Yes. Please go ahead.
Okay. All right. For your name, thank you very much for the presentation. I mean, your successful result in the Q4. I just want to make a follow-up about the cost structure here. I know you don't want to share too much information about this, but when I look at the disclosures, financial disclosures, I noticed that there is a decline in raw material costs in 2024 despite a substantial uptick in Cocoa prices.
Is it fair to assume that this increase in Cocoa prices, which is around like 139%, will be more visible in 2025? Because, I mean, probably last year you were protected with the cost contracts, right? Because I couldn't really understand how raw material costs can decline in real terms while Cocoa prices more than doubled.
Hanzade, thank you so much for your question and for your comments. Thank you. The main reason is because we applied inflation accounting. In 2023, inflation ratio was a lot significantly higher. It was like around 65%. Whereas we ended up the year with inflation number at 44% to 45%. When you, I mean, apply inflation accounting, you need to apply these approximate overall these inflation numbers, which shows a higher number in terms of 2023. Also, Cocoa prices increased sharply in 2024, but we kind of covered most of it.
It was already covered with the purchases in 2023, where we benefited from that as well. If you need—Yes. Sure. Go ahead, please.
Apologies. Do you mean, I mean, this 139% increase in Cocoa prices, you do not still see it in your contracts, right? I mean, these 2024 prices are in your 2025 contracts?
Yes. 2024 prices and 2025 prices, again, I mean, they are on the third month of 2025, are in our contracts, yes. When we execute or when you sign the contract, if you sign the contract in 2023, then you have the 2023 number. It is not like we go ahead and sign the contract. On a continuous basis, we sign the contract. It can be in 2023, 2024, first half, second half. Definitely.
The important thing here is we proactively hedge our Cocoa numbers to make sure that we can manage it effectively.
Okay. So you mean the volume has been hedged already, right?
Yes. Volume and price. Yes.
Okay. I mean, do you expect to price more than inflation in 2025 in that case?
Do we expect to price more than inflation? You mean.
Yes. To cover the cost increases, I mean.
Yeah. I mean, as a principle, in the last three and a half years, what we have done is, I mean, to cover, to reflect, or to surface all of our cost increases to our pricing or mix management to make sure that we can sustain our margins. This was the principle, I mean, of any company and also of Ülker Bisküvi. That is also what we plan to do in 2025 as well.
All right. Okay.
Very clear. Thank you very much, Juliana.
Thank you. Thank you, Hans.
Thank you. Thank you very much. We are now moving to the next question from Erica, MetLife. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Good afternoon. Can you hear me well?
Yes.
Okay. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I got a couple. One is on CapEx. I can see that CapEx has increased this year to almost doubled to around $80 million. I was wondering what is it due to. Also, going back to receivables from related parties, that was quite sizable this year, the movement. Basically, it was a double outflow, and that basically caused free cash flow after interest to be negative. You are saying that you are trying to optimize working capital, but on that case, there was not much an effort or anyway a result there.
How shall we think about it going forward? Because to be honest, it's a bit concerning that it's increased so much. Also, why has increase doubled?
Thank you. Thank you so much. No, thank you. Let me start with the CapEx question. The CapEx, rather than stating that it has doubled, it increased to 3% from 2% or 2.5% in the prior year as part of the trend. As a percent of revenue, it increased slightly. There is no specific, I mean, CapEx. What I can say is it is related to capacity increases, efficiency investments, some additional manufacturing lines, and investments where we were out of stock products. I mean, those type of things. With a small and slight increase in CapEx, we were able to do that. This is number one.
Regarding the related party, it is mainly related to our third-party distribution company, which is Horizon and Pacific. It is again mainly related to a phasing, as I have shared. The increase is temporary. Already some part of it is already collected in the subsequent months in January and February. When we took the quarterly breakdown, it kind of increased in Q2, Q3. In Q4, we started the collection. In January and February, this collection started. Nothing to worry, nothing to be concerned about. Everything is as expected and part of the business as usual. We should not expect any high increases in 2025 as well. Optimization of working capital, yes. There might be a receivable increase that increased our working capital number. However, it is temporary. It is only a phasing, and nothing to be really concerned about.
Okay. Thank you. That's very reassuring.
Just on CapEx then, shall I think going forward 3% of revenue as a more appropriate ballpark figure?
I think you can assume 2-3% of CapEx. If there will be additional CapEx projects, definitely we will let you know.
Okay. Great. One more, if I can squeeze in. You said that this year would be more a challenging year. Can you explain why, given that inflation is coming down and interest rates possibly will come down? It looks like that maybe the operating environment will become more benign.
What I mean with that is every year has its own challenges. Like 2022 had different 2023. I mean, we had, I mean, geopolitic crisis and so on and so on. This year, again, yes, inflation is going down.
I mean, with the minimum wage increases, it was very much limited, which impacted the consumer purchasing power that was ongoing for the last two to three years with the tight monetary policies, with the geopolitical risk, purchasing power going down, consumer behavior changes. I mean, every year has its own challenges. In the last three and a half years, we had a lot of challenges that we navigated very successfully. What I believe is for each challenge, for every challenge, we will develop different strategies and tactics to overcome those challenges. I believe that this will also continue in 2025. We will do our best to deliver the best performance of Ülker Bisküvi.
I did not mean something different, a totally, totally different or unique challenge that will impact the operations of the business, but we have to navigate through that as we did in the last three and a half years. That is what I meant.
Okay. Thank you. Just on the back of this, would you be able, do you think, to continue driving growth? If it is not possible, do you think that there is room for cost reduction in order to support profitability? Just basically, what is your strategy going forward?
Our strategy going forward in terms of to sustain profitability has always been to surface the cost increases to our prices via mixed management, via introducing new products, innovations, pricings, following up competition. There is, and we definitely have a very disciplined cost strategy, and we executed very, very successfully. This will also continue.
No major change, what we have done in the prior years. We'll continue to do that in a very disciplined manner. I cannot tell you that profitability will come from cost reduction or cost discipline. It's again a bundle of cost management, pricing, mix management, channel management, supply chain, and procurement all included. We'll continue to do our best, better and better, like we did in prior years. As I have shared, the company is getting better and better in every aspect.
Thank you very much. You've been very useful. We are very helpful as always. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you so much.
Okay. Thank you very much. Before we move to the next question, just a kind reminder for any remaining questions. If you would like to ask a voice question and you are connected via telephone, please press star two.
If you are connected via the web, you may also ask a voice question or send us your question as a text. Our next question comes from Ali from Gedik Investment.
Can you give a color on your 2025 targets, including net debt?
I think I have already shared it. Maybe I can repeat. Including net debt, we want to sustain very healthy net debt editor number. I have also shared our strategy regarding our syndication loan refinancing. For 2025 targets, we will issue our first guidance at the beginning of May when we issue our Q1 numbers. That is all I can say.
Okay. Perfect. We will now be moving to the next text question from Burak, AK Asset Management. Hershey's CEO commented that there is a huge divergence between cash Cocoa prices and futures market.
He mentioned that cash Cocoa prices are around $2,500 to 3,000 per ton versus futures north of $7,500 to 8,000. Can you remind us what is your average Cocoa cost for 2024 and expectations for 2025? Also, there are some regulatory changes in Indonesia that might affect the palm oil price. Can you also remind us your expectations for palm oil prices for the year of 2025 as well?
Thank you for that. In fact, we do not disclose any structure on any number of our cost structure. However, we have a proactive procurement strategy where we hedge Cocoa in terms of volume and pricing. That is all I can share. Regarding palm oil price and other Cocoa prices in the market, I truly know what is in the market and what I can reach out as information.
I do not have any different insight than what you have available.
Okay. Thank you very much. Next text question comes from Mehmet from Stock. First of all, congratulations on the strong results. In the Q1 of 2024, there was a sale of 200,000 tons. You mentioned that Ramadan had a significant impact. Will the same be true for this year? Thank you.
Thank you. Ramadan always has an impact on our sales. The overall impact will be shaped by the growth in the market and snacking categories. Demand is not as strong as in the Q1 of 2024. Economic environment is also challenging and slightly different. We'll see the results within a month. The Ramadan month has just started, so maybe one and a half weeks. Not one and a half weeks, almost one week. Okay.
Before I move to the next question, just a final reminder. For any questions, please press star two on your keypad. If you are connected via the web, you may also ask a voice question or send a text question. Our next voice question comes from Muharrem from Kona Capital Advisors. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Thank you very much for the presentation and opportunity for the question. What is the projected cost inflation for 2025 per ton and dollars per ton?
I mean, again, projected cost inflation that we build into our UK numbers cannot be disclosed. I mean, you know the Cocoa prices increases, and you can definitely and all other ingredients or kilo metals increases which are available on the market, you can estimate it from there.
Again, inflation is expected to increase around 30%-35% by the end of 2025. We have also considered this assumption when we did our numbers.
Is it fair to assume that, I mean, considering that raw materials make up after 80% of the Cocoa and 20% is Cocoa, given that it's double, only the impact of Cocoa prices is 15% in dollar terms per ton basis? Is it a fair assumption in your view?
I don't think it can be directly calculated like that because there are many hedges, there are many inventories, and so on. It cannot be directly calculated like that. If you need further support, you can send us an email, and we will try to help you as much as we can.
Final question. Thank you very much for that.
The financial expenses altogether was around $185 million in 2024. What is your projection for 2025? A higher net financial expense or a lower number?
Financial expenses, I mean, they compose of FX gains and loss and interest income and expenses. It depends on how FX is going to move, up or down. I mean, 77% of the open position is hedged. FX impact on the remaining will be limited. That's what I can say. Regarding the interest income expense, they're also pretty much under control. We keep decreasing our debt. We decreased our debt also with Eurobond. With another 50, we already bought 50 of our outstanding Eurobond back in 2023.
Unless there is a huge FX jump because we are already closed via hedge derivative instruments, plus interest expenses are under control and very much estimated, there should not be any huge jump or surprise on that perspective. Hope this helps.
I mean, if there is no jump on the FX, then your net financial expenses should come down in 2025 versus last year. Is it true?
Theoretically, yes.
Yes. Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. At this point, we are seeing no further questions. I would now like to pass the line back to Ülker Bisküvi for concluding remarks.
Thank you so much. Thanks, everyone, for joining and raising these valuable comments and questions. If you need any further assistance or if you have any other questions, you can reach us directly. Thank you and have a great day and evening.
Thank you. Thank you. This concludes today's call. We are now closing all the lines. Goodbye.