Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Exxaro Resources Limited's 50 Pre-Sales Presentation. All attendees will be in listen-only mode. You will have an opportunity to ask questions when prompted. If you should need assistance during the call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero. Please note that this event is being recorded. I'd now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Mzila Mthenjane. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you very much, and thank you for that introduction and those guidelines. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Exxaro's FD Pre-Close, looking at the operational performance to date for the first half of 2022. I am joined here by the management team led by our CEO Designate, Dr. Nombasa Tsengwa, as well as our FD, Riaan Koppeschaar, and accompanied by our MD for Minerals, Mr. Kgabi Masia. I must give an apology for our MD for Energy, Roland Tatnall, but in his place we've got Mr. Leon Groenewald, and we have various other members of the coal, energy, and finance team that will be contributing to the discussion this afternoon.
Without further ado, let me hand over to Riaan, who will guide us through the notes that he has prepared, and you would have seen the sales announcement that came out earlier in this regard, and will then provide for an opportunity for questions and answers. Riaan, if I can hand over to you.
Thanks, Mzila. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It's a pleasure to invite you here again. As in the past, I will give you a brief overview of the expected results, whereafter the coal team will give you some insight into the production, the sales, the CapEx, and also the market outlook. If we look at the first page of my report, I will start off with safety and health, and we continue to perform very well on this front, with almost 90% of our workforce and contractors now being vaccinated. Also, on the safety front, we have now been 63 months without a fatality, and our lost-time injury frequency rate is sitting at a very low 0.05. That is a big focus area where we continuously work on.
High level, if we look at coal production and sales, the coal production is expected to increase by 1%, and sales volumes to decrease by 3%. We continue to have challenges on the logistical front, which the coal team will unpack later on. If we look at the energy side, the performance of Cennergi for the first six months has been impacted by poor wind conditions. The expected generation is lower than what we previously guided, but luckily, the second half of the year is normally better wind generation. Also, very pleased to report that we've now received the National Energy Regulator of South Africa registration for the Lephalale Solar Project, so we can now push ahead also with that project.
Lastly, perhaps from my side, as we continue to make progress on the disposal of Leeuwpan, I think the progress has been a bit slower than what we hoped for. That process was also hampered a bit by the logistical challenges that we experienced, but we are still hopeful to conclude a transaction in the second half of the year. I think those were the high-level overview that I wanted to give. With that, I'll hand over to Kgabi and the coal team to take you through some of the detailed numbers.
All right, thanks, Riaan. Kgabi, over to you.
Okay, thank you, Riaan, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm looking forward to the engagement. This is my first conversation after joining Exxaro. I am now 100 days, so yes, I mean, I'm looking forward to the conversation. I know Riaan did touch on safety, but I know I'm going to talk about operational performance. I mean, good safety performance gives you margin so that you can focus on operational efficiencies. I think for me, I mean, that is what I've experienced, that I mean, the team has had a very remarkable safety journey. I mean, the LTI, which Riaan has touched on, I mean, they are almost at benchmark levels. I'll then move on to the operations, but I'll give more insight on the operational performance looking on table one.
I'll start on a high level and then go into operation by operational level in terms of any major shifts in that regard. On the production front, I'll start with our thermal coal. The production is expected to increase by 1%, and mainly due to the REMBAP at GG6. We also looked at finding alternative routes or distribution channels for Mvuleni Qhena, Mxolisi Mgojo, and Belfast. That also contributed to the increase in production. The gains were somewhat offset by the sale of PCC in September of 2021. Our metallurgical coal production is expected to increase by 6% due to increased yield and also improving bottlenecks at GG1 and GG6 REMBAP. If one goes to operation by operation, there's been an overall performance improvement comparing to the previous half-year. At GG6, there's been a 5% improvement, expected improvement due to the GG6 REMBAP.
At Belfast, 19% improvement due to higher RB2 volumes, which we've produced to compensate for the lower exports. At Mafube, there's a 1% improvement due to restatement of production following the thresholds which were taken in 2021 when we experienced full stockpiles due to the rail impact. At Leeuwpan, also, there was an improvement of 7%. That is linked to the higher power station coal demand in line with the threshold demand. At ECC, that production, because of the sales, there was a significant reduction, but that was covered by the improvement in the other operations. Matla is expected a 5% reduction. The main reason there is the difficult or unfavorable geological conditions at the Shortwall Mine 2, but we're expecting improvements in Mine 2 and Mine 3 continuous miner sections in the later part of the year.
That in a nutshell covers the production part of the conversation. I'll then move into the sales side. On the sales side, starting with Eskom, we've seen a reduction in units, downtime reduction. That has given an improvement in terms of the sales. We've seen an expected increase of about 2% in that regard. On the domestic front, the expected increase of 8% is mainly driven by higher uptake from AMSA, with the Western Cape Distilleries, and other new local clients. We've seen an increase in the local demand, where we've directed some of our export products to the domestic market. Also, the higher demand from Sasol, especially linked to the Leeuwpan operation. On the metallurgical coal sales, we expected a decrease of about 2%. The main impact there for AMSA is the rail performance.
We've looked at alternative route transport mechanism to move the material to AMSA. The export sales volume is expected to reduce by 27%, mainly due to rail challenges impacting most of our operations. The TFR have declared a 60 million tonnes allocation. We've cited a number of reasons, one of which we will touch later. I'll ask the team to elaborate on that. The main impact, if I start at Leeuwpan, there's been a 50% reduction in the number of trains per week going into that operation. We've reduced from four to two trains. At Belfast, we've reduced from six to four trains. However, at GG, we've seen an improvement of trains from five to six. That you'll see flowing through when we touch the sales numbers. How we've responded on the rail challenges?
We focus on improving our domestic sales, diverting export products to domestic. We've deployed use of road transport. We're also moving coal from GG to Mafube, signing where we further render coal to Richards Bay Coal Terminal. We continue to export through other logistics channels, including the Richards Bay MPT or even Maputo port, outside the Richards Bay Coal Terminal port. We've also done our first shipment from the Richards Bay MPT . This then shows that our effort in terms of focusing on moving, getting our coal to market in that regard. I'll move to the capital in terms of the capital performance. We've went down on our expansion projects. Our last big project was GG6. Also, I'll also touch that our spending on sustaining capital remains between ZAR 2 billion-ZAR 2.5 billion a year.
The expected reduction on sustaining capital of 37% is mainly due to timing in petrol projects at GG. We also look at our equipment strategy on shovel and truck rebuilds. At Leeuwpan, we've considered the optimizing improvement projects. Hence, you see the reduction in the sustaining capital. On the expansion projects, the main contributor is GG6. The project is now in full ramp-up, and then we start realizing the production from GG6. The GG6 expansion cost remains unchanged at ZAR 5.3 billion. On Matla in terms of the projects, there's been delay in terms of the funds for Mine 1 relocation. However, we've received approval for the Northwest Access project from Eskom. And the Mombasa South hard coking coal project feasibility is still on course to be completed in the first quarter of 2023. I paused there for a second.
Okay, no, thank you very much, Kgabi. I don't know if there's anything specific on the energy side, Leon, that you'd want to add or you've.
No, I think it's been said. I think maybe to give the market some assurance, wind conditions haven't been great in Half One. Speaking to our colleagues in the wind industry, that seems to be a prevailing trend that we are in a lower cycle of the wind. Also speaking to colleagues is that the long-term estimates do remain intact, so we don't have better views on that. On the controllable elements being the availabilities of the sites, we are satisfied with those. We're managing them well. We are also meeting all of our financial obligations. Suffice to say, there's no cause for concern there.
Okay, no, great. Thank you very much for that input. I think what remains in the document, which is pretty self-explanatory on portfolio optimization and sustainable development, requires no further elaboration. To the extent that there are any questions on that, we'll be here to receive those. Riaan, with that, if I can hand back to you.
Mzila, I think Market Outlook was the next one.
Yes.
I'll ask them to touch on that and to go.
Maybe just introduce yourself. I think you're joining us for the first time, Sam.
Sure, thanks, Mzila. Good morning, everyone in the call. This is Samantha Maharajh, Market Services Optimization Lead. Looking at our market outlook for the second half of the year, we've obviously seen very strong pricing in the first half of the year going into 2022. Given the high energy conflicts, prices were in the thermal coal market already at a substantially higher level than what we normally see it. Of course, we had in March the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which really elevated those prices to record numbers. We have seen that there's been significant demand recovery as well as we find that a lot of our—as the world opens up, given all of the lockdown restrictions, and supply has struggled to keep up with the demand increase.
Going into the second half of 2022, we anticipate or expect that prices will remain robust given that the embargo on Russian coal by the European Union has already been announced, as well as the fact that there is, in terms of the gas market, which would be the alternative energy supply, that there is also constraints in this market that we do expect then to see prices and demand to remain robust going into the second half of the year.
Thank you, Sam. I suppose anything on TFR, you'll just wait for specific questions. Do you want to comment on that?
Yeah.
Kgabi, will comment on TFR?
On TFR, as an industry, maybe if I start there, we've been engaging with TFR, the Minerals Council. I mean, we have a platform which I think is well established now where the industry is working with TFR. I mean, the last time we've reported was especially on the security-related issues. The coal industry has now assisted TFR in terms of addressing the security issues. If one looks at Exxaro, because we're the only coal player moving coal from Lephalale, we've also partnered with TFR and the coal industry to address the security issues in that regard. TFR remains challenged in terms of the availability of spares and vandalism, but the focus for the industry and then for TFR is to ensure that we work on addressing the issues. They've been engaged in terms of what needs to happen in terms of the low-cost availabilities.
The contract with the Chinese, it remains a challenge. However, they've improved their maintenance program that we've seen. That is the focus for now. For us, when we're engaging with them, it's about how do we jointly collaborate to ensure that at least we improve maintenance of what is available now, and also to help them in terms of rebuilding some of what they can execute on their end.
Oh, okay. Thank you very much, Kgabi, for that. I guess there'll be more questions from the audience later. Riaan, any other contributions on your side before we move over to Q&A?
No, Mzila, I think let's move over to Q&A.
All right, thank you very much. Perhaps maybe if the operator can just remind us of procedures of how our audience can pose questions.
Thank you very much, Sir. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, if you'd like to ask a question, you're welcome to press star then one on your touch headphone or the keypad on your screen. If you decide to withdraw your question, you're welcome to press star then two to exit the question queue. The first question comes from Brian Morgan of RMB Morgan Stanley.
Thanks. Hi, Brian.
Hi guys, thanks very much for the time. Just a question on the export volumes. Of course, this is going to come. The 6.2 million ton guidance for this year, we did two and a half in the first half. Obviously, there's a big ramp in the second half. Can you give us a bit of color about why you have confidence to think that we're going to see a big half and half improvement in performance? Has there been any movement on—you spoke a little bit about it, but on the spares availability from the Chinese, has there been any movement? Has Cabinet been involved? Has there been any improvements in the politics at all?
Yeah, the Chinese, if I start with that one, remains a challenge. There's been engagement in that front. In our last conversation with the Minerals Council, we were given the feedback from the CEO of TFR that that engagement is happening at Cabinet level. We will still have to see progress in that regard.
Okay.
Maybe Washington Edgar as well. Can I add in that just on that one?
Yes, please.
To say that, look, maybe the market may have picked up that there is talk, especially from Pauline's desk, around change of policy to look into private participation on the rail, even though the details of that have not been fully fleshed out. There is a very interesting interest, or let me say pronouncement from government in terms of how the sharing on the rail by the private sector. They are calling this private participation, which is unique from what we've seen in the definitions of the normal PPPs. This is a conversation that we're looking at, and we are looking forward to the white paper that is awaited.
Thank you very much for that.
On the volumes?
In terms of volumes and our expectations for the second half of the year, we definitely expect that the export market will be there. It is really dependent on our ability to get product to the port, and we are optimistic that a lot of the initiatives that are in place will result in a better performance in the second half of the year.
Sorry, can you give us any specifics on that? Because it's quite a big increase in run rate from the first half to the second half. Could you just give us any specifics on how you have that confidence?
Dhanie will introduce himself, and he'll add to that response.
Yeah, my name is Dhanie Subbramoney. I'm the manager of logistics in Exxaro. Thanks, Mzila. I think there's some level of confidence we're having, as the MD has specified, with the collaboration we have with TFR and understanding that we are going now into the TFR shutdown. I think the maintenance program that has been put in place gives us some level of confidence on the reduction of the challenges that TFR currently has on the rail network. We are expecting some better execution come the second half of the year. That is one point that we are also looking at. Also, as an example, I think the collaboration that has been demonstrated with Transnet and the coal industry, it is bearing fruit.
If I may give one specific example, with the current incident that we had in one of the substations, within a week, I think the industry together with Transnet was able to find a solution. I think those are the low-hanging fruits that we're looking for, which I think come quarter two or, I mean, quarter second half of the year, that will be coming into place. Also, there are programs that TFR has previously presented to us, and most of them are going to come into fruition come the second half of the year, which I think we're starting to see some results in some pockets. I think there is some confidence that we're having that there'll be better performance in the second half of the year.
Okay, great. Thank you very much. Maybe I should have mentioned upfront that Sakkie is away on leave, and Sam and Tiana, who are part of the team, are in his place at the moment. Brian, are you happy with that?
Yeah, that's fine. Thank you.
Thank you very much. Any other?
Yes, sir. The next question comes from Shilan Modi of HSBC.
Hi, Shilan.
Hi, all three guys. Thanks for taking our questions. Just following on from Brian's questions, out of the 2.5 million, 2.6 million tons that you export, how much of that is railed and how much is trucked? Are you trucking? What I'm trying to understand is the impact to your margins from if you are trucking.
All right. Maybe the 2.5 that we're speaking of, that you see on the result, those are pure RBCT volumes that we are. I think the example that the MD has made is 65,000 of that is the first reference that was done through, which is the MPT. I think with the lineups of all the other plans to go through other ports, there's much more volumes that are going to come out of that. The majority obviously sit with RBCT in terms of how we're going to export. The road hauling that the MD spoke about is we're currently road hauling coal from Khota Select to Mpumalanga, which still goes into RBCT via trains, but we are going to be road hauling some to Maputo and some to whichever MPT.
Okay, thanks. If you can, I think six months ago when we had a discussion, you were indicating that certain parts of the rail were operating better than other parts. Can you give us an idea of where you're being impacted? Is it the line between Richards Bay and Mpumalanga, or is it going up to the Limpopo province? Which parts are impacted more? How does this restrict you? What I'm trying to figure out is, is Grootegeluk more restricted or is Belfast more restricted?
I think the restriction, when it comes to Kgabi Masia specifically, or security incidences, we've seen improvement with the appointment of the security surveillance service providers that the industry has appointed. On that front, we have seen it. I think the restriction is more on the Mpumalanga side with regards to other non-security-related matters. It could be locomotive issues. It could be infrastructure issues. The increased performance that we have seen is coming from Grootegeluk, which obviously, in that case, the MD has specified that there is collaboration with the Minerals Council and also with the chrome industry to reduce Kgabi Masia there. We've started to see some fruits there. Mpumalanga is more impacted, but Grootegeluk is better fluid compared to last year.
Okay, thanks. Just in terms of the new wind, I think it's wind, right, that you set up in Lephalale, can you just give us an idea of the impact that will have to earnings for Cennergi?
Yeah, it's the early days, but I'll give you a sense of what we can say. It is a solar PV park of approximately 70 MG behind the meter. The intent is, or the savings that we forecast is about a 12% saving on cost for Grootegeluk First mine, with the Scope 2 reduction of about 36%. Now, earnings probably gather between, say, if you back solve this, between, say, ZAR 140 million and ZAR 160 million.
Okay, thanks. Last question from me. Given the volatility we're seeing in markets and the uncertainty we have on, for example, the rail situation in South Africa, what are you thinking around the dividend in terms of your payout? Are you still going to stick to roughly the midpoint of your two and a half to three and a half times cover on the coal business, or do you think you'll be a bit more conservative this time around?
Shilan, I think it's probably still premature that it's a decision that our board will need to take in August. As you pointed out, there's no intention for us to deviate from the policy at this point in time, but the board will decide on that ultimately.
Okay, thanks very much, everyone.
Thank you. The next question comes from Patrick Mann of Bank of America.
Hi, Patrick.
Hi. Hello. Thank you very much for the call. I'm just kind of doing some dangerous math here, right? Transnet is leaving about 20 million tons. If you say their run rate is 55-60, it should be doing an extra 20 million tons if API 4 is $250. I mean, we're leaving $4 billion-$5 billion in revenue on the table, right? I mean, how much can a loco cost, right? At what point does it not make sense as an industry? Can you not donate locos if there's an issue around private locos on sort of a national or on public sector stuff? I see Transnet starting to say they're going to launch another procurement cycle now in July. What have you guys heard from that?
It just seems absolutely crazy that we're waiting for a white paper on possibly starting a conversation about maybe locomotives being allowed on the railway when we're, as a country, leaving so much money on the table. It must pay itself off very, very quickly. Just your thoughts more on that. Why is there not a more comprehensive or more urgency in addressing the issue? Thanks.
Yeah, maybe let me start. I think that your idea, I mean, the white paper seems like it will take time, but I would say that there's been very robust conversation. I mean, if I look at how the Transnet available, even the minister, regarding to talk about this, yes, it is a challenge. You can't just probably use your own locos and that because of the fees. It's quite a complex situation which they're facing. That is the issue where they're coming from. That is probably going to slow us down to say, how do we sort out the governments around that? There have been proposals, but the system becomes an equitable system. You need to look at it from a whole together. That remains a challenge. I'm not sure if Nombasa would like to add something there, but our experience is.
I mean, is it a crazy idea to just say the industry, while we're waiting to talk about private participation, we donate the locomotives? I mean, how much could it cost? Does it make it completely? I mean, why is that not a possible solution here?
Yeah, it is possible. I mean, we're looking at different options. The challenge is, as in an equitable system, you're going to really struggle just if you don't collaborate with a bigger group. I think most mining houses are enough to have come up with that idea. We're also thinking. They don't speak to it. I think it's all about the how of doing it.
Okay.
I think we've covered everything, Kgabi. Unfortunately, every policy change, I mean, we're all frustrated, I think, as the industry. For every policy change, and I think this thing that we're facing is going to be enabled by change of policy, whether we like it or not. Unfortunately, all governments go through this white paper. There's a green paper. There's a white paper. I'm surprised actually that we are at the white paper level given the noise we started making in 2020. That is a process that is inevitable. I think the question is, what can we do as the industry in parallel to make sure that we alleviate the pressure? Recognizing the fact that we know the skills base that is remaining at TFR is also a challenge to the extent that their crews are not always optimal.
There are other challenges which they're facing that if you are going to be giving them your locos, you want to make sure that you are delivering those on a sustainable base. Those are the things that we would need to look. Those options are on the table, absolutely. That is urgent.
Okay, thanks. That's a good point, Nombasa, about the it might be prove a short-term fix, but it needs to be more sustainable. Yeah. I suppose it's just frustration. I can tell you clients are frustrated as well that for them, it seems like a no-brainer. It would be a very quick payback. They're frustrated that government is not acting faster. That's where the question comes from, is there not a way to fast-track this or to avoid the policy changes or at least find an interim solution while we wait for the policies to change? Yeah, I hear your points and I understand you're the most impacted and the most frustrated. Thank you.
Patrick.
The next question comes from Nkateko Mathonsi of Investec Bank.
Hi, Nkateko.
Hi. Good afternoon. I hope you can hear me.
Yes, ma'am.
Okay. I also have questions on the rail side of things. My first question is, what was the rail performance in quarter two versus quarter one? I think it will just give us a bit of confidence in terms of the expected improvement in the second half. The second question, if you can give us a bit of an update on the Force Majeure that Transnet was raising in, I think, in April, and what were the reasons that were given to you for the Force Majeure by Eskom? The third question, if you can give us a little bit of guidance on the cost of actually using road transport to move some of the volumes. Thank you.
Sorry, Nkateko, the question on force majeure, was that in relation to Eskom or TFR? You mentioned Eskom in.
Oh, I meant TFR, sorry.
Okay.
On the first question, I mean, we did respond that we have a contract with Transnet. As far as we're concerned, I mean, our contract remains in full force. That was our position. That is what they stated. Our position remained that we have a contract. The force majeure, it will apply unless you execute the contract. If Transnet have to honor that, if they didn't deliver, then the contract needs to be respected and not how it was interpreted by them. For us, in our position, there's no force majeure. The contract is still in full force. There was.
I think the bigger concern for me with the Force Majeure was it appeared or it looked like Transnet did not want to guarantee any performance going forward. That will be a concern for me looking into the second half of the year or looking into the next coming years. That's why I was asking, what do you believe is the reason for Transnet wanting to raise a Force Majeure?
Maybe the answer, Nkateko, on this one is that with this engagement now we have on this new addendum where we are really interrogating the risks of that 60 million tons and what it means in terms of the take-or-pay, whether there are a lot of ideas around whether the 60 million ton is seen as the lower level before, for instance, the take-or-pay kicks in. One of the things that we're dealing with is exactly that point where we need to understand the force majeure because remember, there were a lot of companies, SOEs, who sent out a blanket FM during COVID. For us to say to Transnet, "We lost those tons as a result of COVID versus those as a result of the availability of locos," is subject to intense conversations, intense negotiations with them.
It is one of the issues that are not easy in this conversation, and we continue to engage them. We think we are going to resolve and understand their views. I think we have very strong data to point at what drove the tons down during the COVID period. We think we do have that information very clearly, what those specific drivers were.
All right. Thank you. Maybe my other question.
Maybe in attempting to respond to the other question, we do road, but majority of our volumes, the rail to RBCT. The cost of road depends, obviously, where we're coming from, considering that our mines are spread Grootegeluk, which is on its own, on the far north, and then Mpumalanga, on the Mafube, and Belfast. You don't have one cost that one can cost. It's something that is not an easy one to pick up because the fuel price changes every second week to third week. Right now, I can't really tell you the cost of what it is. It's something that really changes every now and then. We won't be able to give absolute numbers, but I must say that the road cost is also picking up, considering what's really happening in the economy now.
Exxaro is majority railing to RBCT on a few of the volumes we are doing, which is going to go through other ports. The idea is to expand, but our main core is going through RBCT. I think the quarter two rail performance, specifically.
Yeah. Look, talking about quarter two, quarter two was obviously the more challenging one as compared to quarter one. We have seen that on the Grootegeluk side, we have seen an upside where there has been an improvement. Looking at, we used to average around four and a half trains. Right now, we are doing at six trains. I think there is an appreciation that also has gone through Transnet on the performance of that. We have seen some downside on the Mpumalanga side where our average has dropped between 4%-6% of how we have been performing. There were valid reasons there, I think, such as we had three derailments that took place in one month. I think that was a huge impact. If you were to take that out of the equation, I think quarter two would have been better than quarter one in terms of how.
I mean, hence my earlier comment that the confidence level we're having, the faculty have now resolved their issues through the current maintenance shot. We expect better performance in the second half of the year.
Okay. No, fantastic. Thank you very much for that. Nkateko, I think we've responded.
Thank you.
Yeah. Any other questions?
Yes, there are more. Next question comes from Ernie Otiart of Optimum Investment Group.
Ernie.
Good day, thanks. Good call. Can you provide any color on costs, cost performances on the mines? How have they been performing since the previous reporting period?
I'll ask Marius to comment, but maybe I'll just open by saying we still aim to keep our costs below mining inflation. We just have to consider that also our PPI, if you see it where it is, it's almost at above 12%, and it's running away from the CPI. Marius can also add a flavor on that.
Yeah, thanks, Kgabi. Yeah, I think we've demonstrated in the past how costs are well under control, and we continue to manage our costs. We stay within mining inflation. What we've seen recently, obviously, with the diesel costs and the electricity costs that are kicking up, and just globally, how inflation has really ramped up, we've seen a bit of a delink between PPI and CPI. We've always said mining inflation is CPI plus two as a proxy, but now we're starting to see that PPI is actually starting to look into the double digits for 2022. That's the latest forecast. We still remain within our guidance of staying within mining inflation, and obviously, we'll share a lot more information in August when we put our half-year results out. Thank you.
Thanks, Marius. Can we move on to the next question?
Thank you. The next question comes from Tim Clark, SBG Securities.
Hey, Tim.
Can you hear me?
Yes, we can, Tim. Carry on.
Okay, thank you. When Tim Geller gave us their pre-close a couple of weeks ago, they sort of said that the June cash was likely to be similar to the May cash simply because although you have some nice receipts from high prices, you've also got royalty and tax payments. I don't know if you could just comment on whether that's as relevant to you too. You've got a bigger Eskom business, so perhaps it's a little bit punitive to assume something like that. That's the first question. Second question, just on the domestic sales. My understanding in February when we spoke was that, or maybe it was March when we spoke, was that you sort of sold free on mine to traders, and they then took all the risk of trucking and getting it through to a port and exporting the coal or selling it domestically.
Your comments earlier seem to indicate that you're doing trucking, that you're actually retaining title for that coal and almost using an agent to sell the coal. I wonder if you could give us a proportion or give us some kind of sense of how much of the coal you're actually trucking yourselves, how much of the coal is actually being sold free on mine. For that coal, I don't know, some kind of indicator of sort of API 4 minus the sort of trucking cost that's indicated to be about, again, recently by Tim Clark. Just lastly, just on the left of that, TV plant. You said it was 140-160 million in EBITDA. That's fantastic. I just wonder if you could give us an idea of when that plant will be constructed, what kind of timing we should bring that EBITDA in, please. Thank you.
Thank you. I mean, as Tim, you want to.
On the EBITDA, you want to start with the domestic sales in terms of how that happens and.
Yeah. Maybe what I want to highlight in terms of the domestic, and I'll hand over to Sam to add there. If you look at there, because of where the price is sitting, your domestic price now has also gone up. That also then provides opportunity for you to be able to export and also add some old transport in that. We're not operating from the world where the domestic prices are sitting where it's sitting now. There's much more competition in terms of the products there. Maybe I'll hand over to you, Sam.
Thanks, Kgabi. I 100% agree with that. I think in terms of the domestic sales, Tim, as you had alluded to, some of those volumes that do not make it to the export are being placed in the domestic market with some of the traders who will be trucking it. As Exxaro also explores some of the optionality, as Dhanie has alluded to, with developing our own avenues to evacuate the coal, we do follow a diversified market strategy linking to what the prices are and reviewing where is the best place to place our product. We are adopting a diversified approach that some goes via the traders, some goes through the avenues that we are developing, and then linking up to those international pricing to get a highest revenue for Exxaro.
Can you give us some indicator of how much trucking you're doing, or is that just very early stage? Up to now, you've been selling to traders?
I think we'll be able to consolidate that for you guys in August, Tim.
Okay. Thank you.
Thanks, Sam.
The next question comes from David.
Perhaps I can just come in on Tim's first question. Yeah, Tim, I think in June, obviously, we need to make tax payments, etc. So probably, I think you can use the May bid as a proxy.
Tim, does that answer the question?
I'm assuming my line's up. Yeah, that's good. Thank you. It's just the timing on Mafube EBITDA for the PV plant?
I'll start with a caveat, Tim. Where we are in the process, we are engaging EPCs where we will firm up on the price and time. Basically, with the studies currently that we have, we should be in operation late 2024, but probably first full year 2025. As soon as we firm up on that, because there have been some changes regarding logistics and capacities from suppliers, we don't want to give you firm commitments until we've engaged fully with them. Thank you.
Absolutely. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Leon. Thanks, Tim. I think there was another question lined up. Somebody else?
Thank you. The next question comes from David Fraser of Peregrine Capital.
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Nice to talk to you again. I'd just like to re-echo sort of Patrick's question around this Transnet issue. I mean, not just the revenue, but I mean, there's probably ZAR 15 billion of the fiscus that's being lifted on the table at the moment. I'm quite shocked that you mentioned three derailments. I mean, derailments have got nothing to do with locomotive availability, which we've been told is the single major problem. That's a management issue. That's a track issue. I just think the industry now needs to do more. Talk is cheap. We've had lots of talk with lots of people through various forums here. Quite frankly, if anything, we're still on the downdraft here. I mean, there are a lot of issues within Transnet that I'm aware of.
For example, the security that's been taken over by Richards Bay Coal Terminal is only the night shift. Why isn't it being extended to the day shift? I believe Transnet schedules on a spreadsheet rather than scheduling software. I believe there's many instances of drivers not turning up for their shifts. There's locomotives that are continually stripped because they've been left without security. Again, just a lack of skills within the organization. Now, we consider these forums and talk and be somewhat comforted, but unfortunately, the numbers are the numbers, and the numbers are still declining. We are actually getting worse despite this talk. Quite frankly, I do think that the industry needs to step up.
We potentially need to get somebody inside Transnet to actually give us the truth and actually give us some sort of attribution as to what these volume losses and how they effectively are coming from. Because certainly, locomotives is only one of the issues, which is not solvable in the short term, but there are many other issues that are very solvable on management issues that we should be on top of and putting continued pressure on.
Thanks. More of a statement than anything else.
No, thanks, David. I think your frustration is duly felt, and it's not the first time you share your views with us. I don't know if maybe Nombasa, you want to comment on that?
Look, I mean, look, we shared, David, the sentiments as well. I think there are two sides always to a story. We have shared before some of the suggestions we've made in terms of what we could contribute. We're really not here in a blaming exercise. Indeed, the state does have its own challenges of accommodating some of the proposals that we made, purely, as I said earlier, also from a policy point of view. There are other issues, as I say. It is not really productive for us to be blaming one another. We do also accept this urgency and the frustration that the market is beginning to express. We want to encourage you to also put up the volume so that it's not only us who hear this. I can assure you, I sit in the Minerals Council.
I sat for the last three years in the coal forum, and we are actually more emotionally engaged than David is at this stage. We do appreciate the comment, and we are going to intensify it even further. I don't think it's in our space to be criticizing what is going on in government at this point in time. It doesn't help us. Thanks.
Yeah, just to follow up, I've got a call with TFR head tomorrow. It will be my fourth engagement with him, so I'm pushing as hard as I can as well.
Thank you, David. We appreciate that a lot.
Thank you very much. Any other questions?
No, sir, that was the final question. Can I hand over for closing comments?
I think we can, if there are no other questions. I think if questions do come up, gentlemen, you do know my email address. You're welcome to pop me a question. I think then maybe I can hand over to Riaan for any closing comments. Nombasa, if any others? Riaan?
Thanks, Mzila . Nothing else from my side. I also think a lot of the arrangements that the coal team mentioned earlier, the FCA sales, etc., will only start ticking in in the second half of the year. Not all of those arrangements were fully incorporated in the first half of the year. Hopefully, we will be able in the second half to have more of those arrangements contributing to the bottom line.
Okay. No, thank you very much for that. Nombasa?
No, thank you very much, Mzila . I think on my side, really, I want to firstly thank really our own employees for continuing to work safely under these very difficult times because there is everything in their powers to ramp up production. As we know, the real issue is really posing challenges on stockpiles, lots of pressure. We continue to keep our employees engaged. We continue to keep our employees motivated to go beyond just production and also look at other optional activities such as maintenance, making sure that they optimize their times on the mines. We also continue to drive our Early Value Strategy on the coal side and making sure that we don't lose the qualities for RB1 because RB1, we know, has got long legs. Those are the things that we're really concentrating on.
I think we will talk in August around how we are positioning this business to execute the strategy that we had shared with you last year in September at the Capital Markets Day. I am very excited with some of the conversations we are having internally on capital allocation and making sure that we optimize that. We will have all of that conversation so that the market can see that as much as we operate, we also worry about the future. Thank you very much, and thanks to everyone. We appreciate your contributions because they really keep us sane and keep us thinking. Thank you, Mzila .
Thank you very much, Nombasa. I think what remains for me is to say, today, being the 30th of June, marks the exact mark of a six-month period. Between 12:00 P.M. tonight and the 18th of August, when we deliver our interim results, we will be in a closed period. We will not be engaging. We will communicate further details as far as the delivery of those results is concerned on the 18th of August, 2022. Thank you very much for the continued interest from both Southside and Bassard. We look forward to possibly seeing you on the 18th of August. Thank you. Cheers. Have a good day.
Thank you, Mzila . Everyone, cheers.
Bye.
Bye.
Cheers. Bye-bye.
Bye.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's event. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect.