Earnings Call: H2 2021

May 27, 2021

Afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you very much for joining us at our annual results presentation this afternoon. On the agenda this afternoon, we will 1st and foremost touch on the highlights of the 2021 financial year. We'll then move on and spend quite a bit of time in a very important area of the debtors book. We'll then move into our financial results, followed by quite a comprehensive discussion on our targets and the outlook for the new financial year. Then as always, the end of the presentation, we'll be happy to deal with your questions. I've also got Chuck Vestby, Our CFO joining me, so we'll gladly deal with your questions at the end of the presentation. We are pleased to report a solid set of results that was delivered through a very balanced operational 4 months. The revenue increased by 4.2%, supported by a nice increase merchandise sales of 6.7%. Later on in the presentation, I'll give you a little bit more color in terms of the performance of our trading brands. Just to now add that also a very balanced performance at all of our trading brands in traditional and in the cash area of the business performed really well during this period. Gross profit margin expanded from 41% last year to 41.8%. Operating profit increased by 174%. Good performance when one look at the cash generated from operations, solid increase of 47% headline earnings per share up 137%. And then some good news for shareholders, an increase in our final dividend of 200%, bringing the increase for the total dividend for the year up to 77%, once again highlighting the confidence that the Board has got in the group's medium to longer term prospects. Right throughout the COVID period, as things stand today, We prioritize the health and wellness of our staff and our customers. And the business has spent just over $15,000,000 during this period to make sure that staff and customers remain safe. As we reported at the end of the first half, severe trading restrictions impacted our first half performance where most of our stores were closed for the 1st 6 weeks of the financial year. Significant impact on sales, Approximately $316,000,000 were lost in the sales line. Collections were impacted by approximately $250,000,000 during this period. And management paid a lot of attention to ensure that cash preservation and cost control remain top of mind throughout our entire business. As a matter of fact, expenses decreased by just over 9% for half 1. If we look at the half two performance, expenses were once again well controlled, all stores being opened, trading during half two. Expenses increased at a rate of 3.2%. Ladies and gentlemen, so as we emerge, as we came out of this hard lockdown period. A lot of reliance was placed on our experienced and very committed Lewis team. And I must say our entire team of over 8,500 people really rose to the challenge. They took the proverbial bull by the horns and really place the group in a position where we are at today, where we still have a solid balance sheet and a balanced set of results to report. We are very grateful for the selfless way in which all our team members served the company during this period. We are also grateful to our customers for their continued loyal support. And I must also mention that our suppliers really played a big role in our success. And in most cases, suppliers actually walked more than that extra mile, placed us in a position where our stores were all fully stocked right throughout this period. Merchandise sales, A very strong recovery in the second half. So for half 1, we were 4.9% down and previous year. In half 2, a very strong recovery with sales increasing by 17%. If we look at the sales patterns, we've seen good gains in the area or contribution that came out of the Furniture categories as well as the appliance categories. As you well know, these are the higher margin categories that also expanded or supported the expansion in our gross profit line. COVID-nineteen did not stop Our expansion plans. We opened 24 new stores during this period, closed 11 unprofitable stores. And we also continue to invest for the future by refurbishing 100 stores. The credit application decline rate increased from 37.5 to 38%. If you look at our decline rate for half 1, You would note that the decline rate was at a higher 41% at that point in time. During the second half, we've launched A lot of focused marketing campaigns. These campaigns were especially focused on attracting customers out of the lower risk Categories, the strategy worked well and that had a positive impact on the decline rate. I must also pause to just mention that the performance of the business that we wrote post lockdown actually outperformed the performance of the rest of the book. So if we look at the business that we've invoiced from or the business that we've done From June last year right through to February of this year, the actual payment performance of that portion of the book outperformed the rest of the book, and that's obviously great news for future collectability. Credit sales settled at all time low. 49.1 percent of all sales were done on a credit basis. This result was driven by a decline in credit sales of 7.9%, the increase in cash sales of almost 26%. It was also mentioned that if we only look at the traditional part of our business, being Lewis, Best and Beyers. For those brands, we saw an expansion in cash sales of almost 36% during this period. Like mentioned, expenses were tightly managed and some good savings were banked during this period. Another highlight for this year is successes that we've had in terms of buying back shares at very favorable rates, but for the 2021 year, we bought back just short of 5,400,000 shares at an average price of R20 0.93 dollars If we look at the share buyback program, that is the slide that you're looking at moment, ladies and gentlemen, the share buyback program started in 2018. And over the 4 year period, We bought back no fewer than 17,300,000 shares at an average price of R27.38 dollars And finally, since we listed the business in 2004, we've repurchased and canceled 29% of shares in We then move on to the 2nd section of the presentation, which deals with our debtors analysis. I think one of the big questions that needs to be addressed today So the question of how is it actually possible that the Lewis Group could reduce data costs and improve the quality of the debtors' book during a pandemic. In answering this question, there There's four reasons that needs to be unpacked. 1st and foremost, as we went into the hard lockdown period, The Lewis Group had a debtors book that was really of good quality. If we go back to 2019 Half 1, You would note that the satisfactory paid percentage at that point in time, so this was the last set of results that we reported prior so going into the lockdown period. So at that point, satisfactory paid percentage was already above 74%. As a matter of fact, we're touching on 74.2%. The quality of the book was really good, and the Better quality book supported us really well as we came out of the hard lockdown period. We had lots of customers that were in fact willing to come in and pay their accounts. And when we look at the actual recovery in collection rates in quarter 2, it can be attributed largely to the good standing of the book, a good standing that we enjoyed prior to going into this lockdown query. Secondly, one can never underestimate The supporting role that the COVID-nineteen relief measures has played during this period. We all know that large amounts of money flow through the economy on a monthly basis. All retailers benefited, And Dewars also enjoyed the benefit of these relief measures, both in the top line and also in our collections. And thirdly, ladies and gentlemen, as we came out of the half lockdown period, we've enhanced our collection strategies, And we've also improved in terms of the execution on of these collection strategies, and that also aided and supported collection rates to a large extent. Then finally, Prior to going into this reporting period, a special COVID-nineteen related impairment provision was raised. It was quite a significant impairment provision. As a matter of fact, a provision of $190,000,000 was raised. The reason for this raising this provision was because of the fact that we anticipated higher write offs solely as a result of COVID. And to a large extent, this has materialized, and we'll touch on the exact numbers when we get to the appropriate slide. So basically, those four things and a combination of those culminated in an improvement in the data cost performance and more importantly, in actually improving the quality of the data's book We're going to move on to the data performance and more especially so, collections. I already touched on the fact that have lost $250,000,000 during quarter 1, clearly illustrated in our collection rates that settled just below 60%. Then a very immediate recovery in quarter 2, good quality of the book coming through, those COVID relief measures supporting collections And then obviously, the change to collection strategies that resulted in a collection rate of 73%. Improving trend continued in quarter 3, touching on 76% collections and in quarter 4, a really encouraging 79.4 percent collection rate. I can also mention that the improved collection rates that we've seen in quarter 4 also carried through into the new financial year. Ladies and gentlemen, we must also put the 74 0.4% achievement in the satisfactory bucket into perspective. One of the ways to do that is to look at the 5 year history. Very encouraging performance if you consider that in 2017, only 68.5% of all of our as we in fact classified as satisfactory rate. Performance went sideways in 2018, then an improvement in 2019, where we settled on 71.4 percent. Then the tail end or the impact of COVID impacting on the tail end of 2020, a reduction of 70.5% and then a very nice expansion to 74.4%. This 74.4% is actually our best achievement in this category for the last 10 years. Collections. Collection rate for the 12 months settled at 71.8%. And for the 10 months, post lockdown, final collection rate of 74.9%. It's been very important to note that we actually achieved a 79% collection rate in final quarter of this year. Our arrears, down on last year from 36.7% to 36.1%. We get to the debtor cost line, solid improvement of 19.5%. I spoke about the fact that our bad debt that our write offs actually increased during this period. See the numbers on the screen, up from $799,000,000 to $923,000,000 an increase of 124,000,000 year on year, resulting in an impairment release of $110,000,000 Ladies and gentlemen, the COVID provision of $190,000,000 that was raised came in really handy. And like I said, the increase in the write off did not come as a surprise. Overall, data cost performance, down from 17.6 to 14.3%. Now I think it's now important, ladies and gentlemen, to once again look at the 5 year Easter. I think immediately one looks at the data cost percentage line, it gives quite a bit more color to the 17.6 that we achieved last year after the additional impairment provision was raised. As a matter of fact, that 17.6 Percent our data cost percentage is not out of line with the achievements of 2017 and 2018. Think the other thing that I need to highlight on this slide is that we currently enjoy a total impairment coverage of 42.6%, which compares favorably to the pre COVID situation in 2019, where we enjoyed a coverage of 42%. Another takeaway on this slide lies in the fact that the total impairment provision today is still $100,000,000 higher than what we enjoyed in 2019. And I must immediately say that It's $100,000,000 more provided on a book that basically enjoys far better quality than what we enjoyed in 2019. You've seen the satisfactory pay for 2019. You've seen the increase to 2021. And I will touch on the composition of that I would just once again like to make the statement that management believe that the book is that we are carrying adequate provision to cover for future bad debt. We then move on to the buckets that most of you are very familiar with. This is the way in which we've presented our data's book since we've listed in 2004. My first comment here would be that the total quality of the book improved significantly. Satisfactory paid up from 70.5 to 74.4%. I think even more importantly, ladies and gentlemen, is the fact that the composition half the satisfactory paying bucket has also improved significantly. If we look at the number of customers that have got no arrears, that are fully up to date, paid up to date as things stand, That percentage of customers is actually the highest that we've seen over the last 30 years, a 13 year high in terms of the number of customers that are fully up to date. So once again, I'll stress the point that the reduction in the data cost line is driven by 2 things: the release of provisioning that we took for COVID It's also as a result of a very, very strong quality debtors book. I also want to highlight that the level of coverage that we're enjoying the slow payer and nonperforming buckets, still above that of last year. I can just For some percentages, so last year, we enjoyed a 66.7 percent coverage in the slow paying bucket. It's now up to 67.5%. And similarly, in the nonperforming bucket, an increase from 85.6% to 86.5%, overall coverage of 42.6%. Finally, it's very nice to see an increase in the number of customers in the satisfactory paying bucket, 10,000 more customers. Like I said, Most of these customers are actually in a better standing than last year. We'll then move on to the financial results And on to the income statement. We've spoken about the nice increase in revenue, 4.2% up, Good increase in merchandise sales, solid expansion in the gross profit line from $41,000,000 to $41,800,000 Operating profit, A big jump from $253,000,000 last year to $696,000,000 I will talk a little bit about The sustainability and what one can expect going forward, we'll touch on that later on in the presentation. Good expansion in the operating profit margin from 6.9% to 17.7% and Earnings per share also nicely up by 148%. Then move on to our segmental analysis. I touched on the point that we saw a balanced performance out of all brands. And then maybe I should just mention that during half 2, the traditional part of our business, when you talk about Lewis, Best and Best, The sales increase that we've experienced for these different brands varies between 16% 18%. All of these brands performed exceptionally well. And UFO, during the second half, Solid sales increase of 20% was baked in that business. Operating profit, worthwhile noting that UFO, out of the 43 stores that we trade, contributed 13% of the Group's operating profit. Operating margin, additional strong expansion from 6.7% to 17.9 Then a really encouraging operating margin for our cash only furniture retailer UFO at 16.4%. As we continue to invest for the future, the store base expanded by 13 stores. In the case of UFO, we've opened the net 2 new stores. We expanded our footprint for UFO in the Eastern Cape. We've also opened our very first store in the Western Cape. To touch on future expansion plans under the outlook section of the presentation. Expenses were well managed, 9% reduction during half 1 of this year. Expenses then during half 2 increased by 3.2%, giving us a final position saving or declining expenses of 2.9% for the year. So we saved $88,000,000 on the expense line. Just to mention that $70,000,000 of that $88,000,000 was actually saved during the hard lockdown period, 6 weeks that none of our stores traded. And for obvious reasons, that saving will not be repeated in the New Year. And we'll talk a little bit further about what can be expected when we get target section of the presentation. Balance sheet, solid, robust. It's always Absolutely no borrowings on the balance sheet, ladies and gentlemen. Last year, we had borrowings simply because of the fact that We took a prudent strategic decision when we went into the lockdown period to actually draw on some of our facilities. Happy to share with you that it was not necessary for us to actually utilize any of these facilities that we draw down on. And we were in fact in a position to repay all of those borrowings before we got to the end of half 1. We'll also touch on our current stockholding, an increase of 28%, 200,000,000 more. The reason for this is once again strategic. There's still a big shortage of raw material out in the market. There's also a lot of challenges on the logistical side of things. It's still a problem to actually find shipping containers to get ships to actually load your stock on, to get those into takedown on time. And because of these reasons, we've taken a strategic decision to go And basically, let's call it overstock the business on our key lines to be sure that we can once again service all of our customers on time. You know one of the backbones of our business model is the fact that we deliver 95% of all sales same day. It's not something that we are prepared to put at risk. We've been very successful during this pandemic period. As a matter of fact, If we look at all our current lines, all lines that we would advertise, 90% of those lines never fell below our internal model stock below our normal model stock targets, that is in general. So when people came into our stores, they were able to view our full range of products and that most definitely supported our sales growth. We can then move on to our key ratios. Headline earnings increased by 126%. Our headline earnings per share increased by 137%. This clearly reflects the benefit of our share buyback program. So intention to continue to buy back shares as we move forward. Then we also saw a very nice expansion in our return ratios. In the case of ROEs, it's from 3.8% to 9%. Our return on capital employed nicely up from 3.7% to 8.7 and our return on assets up from 4.8% to 10.5%. And we most certainly moved a lot closer to our medium term objectives during this year. But management is fully aware of the fact that It's not going to be easy to maintain these sort of return levels in the short term or especially so in 2022. We're fully aware of the fact that we will have to execute our strategies really well. We'll have to be spot on and on target to compensate for the expected increase in weakness in the economy. We look at gearing, 7.4 percent solely as a result of lease liabilities. And we've spoken about the good news that the dividend total dividend for the year is up 77%. We move on to targets, the outlook section of the presentation. A balanced set of results. So we achieved our gross profit margin goal for the year, ended very close to the upper end of our target range. Operating profit margin, nice improvement, well above our target range. And I think that this is also a good place in the presentation to just pause for a moment and just to talk about the sustainability of the operating profit margin that we have achieved and then obviously, on a look through basis, the overall profitability of the business. I think a good starting point would be to go back to our achievements of the 2019 year, the last year that we can still classify as, I suppose, normal. During 2019, we've banked operating profit of 443,000,000 I think at that point, if management would have offered a 6% per year increase in the operating profit line, it would have been acceptable. But let's work on the assumption that there was a little bit more upside in our thinking and maybe in the thinking of those of you that builds models, let's work on the assumption that we said 8% was actually an achievable goal. So if we roll forward from 2019 on that basis, ladies and gentlemen, the operating profit achievement for this year would have been at around about $520,000,000 We achieved the operating profit of 696,000,000 And I think it's important to highlight that 2 of the drivers that played a big role in this uptick in profits was First and foremost, the COVID related payment provision of $100,000,000 that we raised for very good reasons. And secondly, also the $70,000,000 that we saved during the hard lockdown. So we saw a release in the impairment line of 110, We're back at that saving of $70 I think as one now move forward and as you go and build your models, One must work on the assumption that those numbers will not necessarily be repeated in the years that lies ahead. And therefore, my comments on the previous page when we spoke about the expansion that we've enjoyed in our returns. One must take note of the fact that it's going to take A lot of hard work and a lot of strategic planning for management to ensure that the gains that we have made will in fact be back going forward. And for that reason, you will see that we've set quite a wide target range in the area of operating profit margin, a target range of between 12% to 18%. So we are not saying that it is completely impossible for us to repeat this. We are just saying that there is a lot of unknowns and there is a lot of risk that one needs to consider We finally decide where the business will be 12 months from now. In the area of operating costs, Because of the base effect, a range of 8% to 12%. As always, a lot of work will be done to make sure that cost containment remained top of mind throughout. Credit sales range, 52% to 56%. We believe that as the cash flow in the economy starts to tighten, More customers will turn back, once again start making use of our store credit offering and therefore a target range of 52% to 56%. Satisfactory paid, quality underlying quality of the book is good. Therefore, a far more aggressive target range than what we had last year. If you look at the upper end of the target range And the target range that we've set for the medium term, it's clear that management believes that there's further upside and that the quality of the book could even improve further in time in years to come. Headers cost came in below the low end of our target range at 14.3 Target for this year, 13% to 16%. And in the medium term, we believe that we can go as low as achieving a 12% data cost percentage. Spoken about gearing, and The only reason for that 7.4% is, in fact, these liabilities. We can move on to the outlook. I think you will all agree that Trading conditions is definitely expected to become more challenging. We all know that consumer inflation increased to 4.4% in April. We know that one of the drivers in all of this is quite a significant increase in food inflation. We all know that rising food inflation immediately puts or places pressure on people in the lower and middle income segments of the market. Together with all of this, there's also electricity tariff increases and still wash its way through the economy. And another worrying factor is also the increase in local unrest. Ladies and gentlemen, so yes, there is a number of dark clouds on the horizon. But despite all of these macroeconomic challenges, we've got A lot of confidence in the resilience of our business model. We've got a lot of confidence in the experienced management team that has actually steered the ship through a number of down cycles in the past. And we believe that through our merchandise and focused marketing strategies and the fact that we are still in the business of extending credit to people, just want to make use of it. We believe that these will all be driving factors that will put us in a position to continue to grow the top line over the next 12 months. The resilient business model is also fully supported by robust cash flows and a really strong balance sheet. I'll say it once again, got no borrowings. We've got plenty of facilities available to us. And if there's opportunity to grow the debtors' book, we most certainly have the money to make that investment. I already touched on the fact that our stock levels were adequate Right throughout this period, I made mention of the fact that we took a strategic decision to overstock. We're on the front foot. We can service customers. We saw good demand coming through in April. We're satisfied with the levels of demand during the month of May. It's now really a question over the next 12 months to 1st and foremost go and protect the cash market share that we have gained and to go and increase the actual level of sales growth that we generate through our in store credit offering. So if you just look at credit sales and the performance, we might mention in our commentary that credit sales declined by 7.9 percent for the year. We have seen a recovery over the 3 quarters that followed quarter 1. And maybe you would find that the percentages to be of interest. 1st and foremost, in the Q2, credit sales grew by 1.5%. In quarter 3, we saw credit sales increase of 2%. And then in quarter 4, ladies and gentlemen, a nice solid 5% increase came through in the credit sales line. So there's already signs that is showing that our focused Marketing campaigns are in fact bearing fruit. The share repurchase program will continue, We've been highly accretive to shareholders. As a matter of fact, over the last 7 weeks, So for this financial year so far, we've been successful to repurchase just short of 1,000,000 shares. We are back in the market today. I see some nice volumes coming through. And if there's opportunity to pick up some bargains, And I suppose at around about ZAR34 ZAR35 ZAR35, it can only ever be described as a bargain, we'll make use of the opportunity. Then finally, the investment for the future will continue. We plan to open 15 to 20 new stores. Most of those stores We'll be opened under the best under the bears, I should say, and UFO Chains. This is in line with our diversification strategy, and we believe that both of these brands have still got sizable opportunity for expansion. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for listening to the presentation. We'll now gladly deal with your questions. We have a question from Franco De Silvestre from Titanium Capital. Congratulations on your results. Why is the share buyback program not more, Greg? Franco, thank you very much. It's a very good question. So in the past, we went to shareholders on a continuous basis to ask for a mandate to buy back 10% of shares in issuance. As things stand today, we will once again go to shareholders at the next AGM. And it's most definitely something that the Board will consider When the time comes, we haven't decided as things stand today exactly how aggressive we will go forward. What we can say is that we will at least go and ask for a mandate of 10%. The other point that I was also mentioning is that The liquidity of the share has always been a problem. It looks like for the first time this year, we will in fact be in a position to actually execute on the full mandate that we have been given to shareholders. And just to update, we've currently executed on roughly 60% of the mandate that were given to us by shareholders in October of last year. So that means, frankly, that we've still got 3,000,000 shares to go before we've exhausted this mandate. If we are in fact successful, We might also consider to go to shareholders prior to the AGM to go and refresh the matter. Thanks, Johan. Then a question from Cipulele Madhuda from Excelsior Capital. He says, well done on great set of results to yourself and the team. You mentioned that momentum second half of FY twenty twenty one continued. How does this compare to April of 2019 And also lost sales last year. Yes. So I think on a look through basis, it's important To look at the 12 months and then to say that, listen, we came through this period with a total sales growth of 6.7%. So luckily, there was quite a bit of pent up demand that came through as we reopened our stores. And if we now look to answer your question with regards to April's performance measured against 2019, we've seen a solid sales growth during April of this year. And we satisfied the sales momentum most certainly did not slow during the month of April. A little bit of a slowdown has been detected during the month of May, but we will still comfortably achieve the sales targets that we've set for ourselves. And then there's a second part to Cabela's question. You said close to $215,000,000 in marketing. How much of this is likely to increase going forward? I think a good place to start is to go back to the levels of spend in 2019. In our budget for this year. You must remember that a large chunk of that saving was in fact made during the period where our stores were closed. As we came out of the hard lockdown, there was also still some limitations on us with regards to brochure distribution and so forth, And we obviously do not expect to repeat those savings. Thanks, Johan. Then a couple of questions from Alexander Dess from Tom, go ahead. Have you considered to increase the dividend payout ratio as to doing more share buybacks? After due consideration, it was decided that the dividend payout ratio will stay at 55% level. And like we said, we still have enough money in the bank to also continue to fund the share buyback. And at this point in time, we are not going to increase the dividend payout ratio. There's still a fair amount of uncertainty that in the future, I should say. Then a follow-up question from Alexander. Why do you share buybacks when liquidity is already poor for shareholders? Will special dividends ever be considered? Special dividend is not on the table at this point in time. We, however, believe that The share buybacks are highly accretive and for accretive, I should say. And for that reason, we will remain in the market and we will follow through through the strategy. At this point in time, we are in a fortunate position where we can afford to do both. We can do buybacks And we can afford to actually pay or return 55% of the attributable items in 2 shares. And then a final question from Alexander. Considering the load gearing, what is the ROE target for short term, medium term? ROE targets are not something that we share with the market on that we share with the market. As a matter of fact, we've been very consistent in terms of the financial and operating targets that we Do talk about at the beginning of every financial year, and all of those are contained on Slide 2022. I can give a little bit more color to say that in 2019, our ROEs settled at 6.4% at that point in time, then came down to what we discussed today, and then went up to 9%. And I think I made the point that a lot of hard work and a lot of effort We'll be going into the business to ensure that we hang on to as much of the gains that we have made. Thanks, Johan. And a question from Ittamil Ensenaga from Panguela Global Fund Managers. Are there any acquisition opportunities in the cash sales market that could complement UFR? We are certainly looking, and we have been looking at possible acquisitions for quite some time. We've most definitely proven that QFO has been a very good acquisition for the group. And I would like to end the answer by saying that at this point in time, there's nothing on the radar that we can talk about today. Thanks, Jan. That's all the questions on the webcast. And once again, just to say thank you very much for the time that you have invested to listen to our presentation today. And I'd also once again like to extend an invitation To all the shareholders and potential shareholders out there, if you want to and to have a follow-up session with us, Got any more questions, please book some time through Graeme Lilly. We are more than prepared to actually spend some time to further explain our business, to further talk about future prospects of the newest group. With that, I say thank you very much. Stay safe and have a