Sappi Limited (JSE:SAP)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2017

Feb 8, 2017

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Sappi Limited first quarter 2017 results conference. All participants are currently in listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions later during the conference. If you should need assistance during the call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero. Please also note that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to the Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Steve Binnie. Please go ahead, sir.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Thank you. Good day, everybody. I'll refer to the page numbers as I move through the presentation. Starting on page four, the highlights for the quarter. EBITDA, excluding special items, was $201 million, up from $175 last year. Profit for the period up from $75 last year to $90 million this year. Following that, earnings per share up from $0.13 to $0.16. The same time as the profits have been going up, net debt came down further, down another $400 million to $1,338 million as at the end of the quarter. That's nearly half where it was four years ago. Moving to slide five, some of the key ratios. It's pleasing to see that net debt to EBITDA is now down at 1.7.

Just to remind you guys that over time, we always want to strive to maintain it below or at a maximum of two times. EBITDA percentage at 15.4%, up nicely. Also pleasing to see our return on capital employed continues to improve. Obviously, that's a key ratio as we evaluate new projects and new initiatives. For the quarter it was 19.5%. Turning to slide six, the EBITDA bridge from 2016 to 2017. Firstly, sales volumes up. A large part of that obviously was because of the fact that we had an extra trading week. On price and mix, nice price improvements on frozen dissolving pulp and in our South African business on the packaging side. We're also benefiting from a mix as we grow our specialities business across the regions. Clearly that will continue to be the case as we grow that business.

A lot of good work being done on variable costs. You see that coming through as a big positive. Turning to slide seven, just this product contribution split between paper and specialised cellulose. Those numbers haven't changed that much since recent quarters. EBITDA, close to 50/50. Operating profit, 62% specialised cellulose. On the paper side, obviously that includes graphic paper and specialities. Our intention over time will be to split that out between the graphic paper and the specialities as we move through and into these new projects. Slide eight, the evolution of our net debt. I've already called out the highlights, the fact that it's nearly half where it was three or four years ago. You can see the nice trend. We would expect that to continue to go down for the rest of the financial year.

Slide nine is the maturity profile of our debt. It's looking good. Most of the debt is now long dated. The one bond is maturing in 2017, and we put it in the outlook statement that we intend repaying those bonds in April using our cash resources. We do have sufficient resources on hand. On slide 10, our CapEx. This year we are projecting $ 350 million. In 2018 and 2019, we've included our estimates for those years. In our results announcement, we did talk about the two new conversion projects that we're undertaking, and I will expand further. Looking at the cash flows associated with those and the debottlenecking of these dissolving pulp opportunities in South Africa, that's what gives us the numbers that you're seeing on that slide. Turning to the product categories on slide 12. Firstly, talking about the paper, graphic paper.

Obviously, the markets continue to be challenging and obviously that's one of the reasons we are looking for opportunities to redirect capacity away from graphic paper towards specialities. We continue to see closures and obviously as a result of our conversions, we're going to take some capacity out of the market. Specialities continues to grow in the segments that we're in. We're seeing rates of between 1% and 5%, and that's why they are attractive to us to make further investments. Selling prices for graphic paper have come down since a year ago. More recently, we're seeing a little bit of stability. We've just announced a price increase in Europe for graphic paper, and I'm sure we'll get questions on that a little bit later. Costs have come down since a year ago, and we've done a lot of good work there.

It is important to point out that pulp prices have started rising a little bit in recent weeks. Our strategy clearly is to try to anticipate the demand for the graphic paper and convert or reduce capacity as that demand drops. That's obviously what gave rise to the projects that we've announced today. Continuing to make sure that we focus on costs and make sure we're in amongst the lowest cost producers. Turning to the regions. Europe, good volumes coming through across the board. On graphic paper, obviously, we had the H2 which helped us on the volume side. In addition to that, good work done on costs. Specialities volumes up very nicely, 26%, and clearly over the next couple of years that will rise significantly. Moving to slide 14, North America. Also the market has been tough. We saw prices come off.

More recently, they've started to stabilize. As we've lowered our prices, we've been able to boost our volumes, which has helped fill up the mills. The dissolving pulp has been good and helped the region. Costs management has been very good, and we've been able to take costs out the business, and we continue to look for efficiency initiatives and opportunities. Turning to slide 15 and the dissolving pulp markets. Those have been pretty good over the last couple of quarters. We've seen demand being pretty good and some of the dissolving pulp capacity that was expected to come onto the market has been delayed a little bit, which has obviously helped us. Prices have been good and in recent weeks, in fact, have actually picked up a little bit as well. That's encouraging. Going forward, we obviously want to continue to maintain our low-cost position.

We have some short-term opportunities to improve volumes in South Africa over the next couple of years. In addition to that, as we look beyond 2019, or at 2019 and beyond, we look for opportunities to expand our capabilities further as that market grows. In South Africa, on slide 16, the business has done well. Obviously, dissolving pulp has been good, but underlying demand for our packaging offerings continues to be positive. We did have a little bit of production issues at Saiccor, some tube leaks, and we're going to be addressing them during the Saiccor shut in March. The rand is now stronger than it was a year ago, so that does put a little bit of pressure on the business. Clearly, we benefit from a weaker rand relative to the dollar. Moving to the strategy, and slide 18. The various pillars on our strategy.

Firstly, on costs, it continues to be an area of focus. We have good projects across the business. On the procurement side, we've achieved savings, and we continue to look for further savings as we move forward. We've made some recent investments in South Africa, some turbines at Saiccor and Tugela. At Somerset, I think it was last quarter, we announced to the market that we're investing in the woodyard there, and we'll start to see the benefit of that coming through in the 2018 financial year. There's ongoing continuous improvement initiatives across the business to make sure we stay competitive. On slide 19, the rationalizing of our declining businesses, and clearly we have to be pragmatic about our declining graphic paper exposure. The projects that we announced today, which I will talk about in more detail, will help manage our exposure there.

At Lanaken, as a result of the projects that we announced, we are going to see less exposure to mechanical paper, the lightweight coated. With the increased specialities investments at Maastricht and Ehingen and Somerset, we are going to reduce our exposure at those mills for coated woodfree. Moving to slide 20, in terms of making moderate investments to grow our business. I've already talked about the fact that we have some short-term debottlenecking opportunities at Saiccor and Ngodwana. The investments that we make at the various mills that we announced today, as I said, we've got a couple of slides now where we'll go into more detail. We look for opportunities to grow packaging at Ngodwana and Tugela. As I said earlier, the market demand there continues to be good, and we do think there's opportunities to grow further.

Turning to slide 21, before getting into the projects we've just put the graph of our return on capital employed over the last few years, and you can see it tells a very good story. Obviously, we picked up from a relatively low base. It's important to recognize that when we consider these projects, when we evaluate them, the return on the capital employed, the paybacks, the IRRs are all very important for us and you are seeing the benefits of that coming through. We think that the projects or we know that the projects that we've announced today meet those hurdles as we move forward. Slide 22 just talks about those investments. Firstly, in Europe, we're spending ZAR 140 million across four mills. The bigger stories there are at Maastricht expanding our rigid packaging offering, at the same time, smaller increases at Ehingen and Alfeld.

You can see the product categories that we're getting into, solid bleached board, folding box board, white top liner, expanding all of those. We estimate that that will give us an additional specialities volumes of about 200,000. At the same time, Lanaken will reduce its exposure to mechanical paper and that will pick up the volumes of coated woodfree coming from the other mills. At Somerset, we're investing in PM1 at Somerset, which will give us the flexibility to make packaging grades and graphic paper. It does increase our overall capacity at that mill and in the medium term, the 3-year medium term, we are targeting to ramp up our packaging grades by up to 350,000 tons. Slide 23 graphically just shows you the grades that we are in.

On the containerboard side in South Africa, we have the corrugated board offerings and that does very well for us and makes very good returns. The white top liner under containerboard is predominantly at our Ehingen mill. In solid bleached board and folding box board, the investments that we're making at Somerset and Maastricht will predominantly be in that space. Slide 24 just breaks it by mill in the European. I'm not going to talk to that, but you can just see what we're doing at each of the mills. Turning to slide 25. The next pillar of our strategy is strengthening the balance sheet, we've done a lot of good work here, and we'll continue to be very disciplined as we think about our CapEx initiatives.

In the short term, we've got the bonds, which I mentioned now, which will obviously lower our interest bill. On slide 26, the adjacent businesses in addition to everything that we've talked about already, we will continue to look for further opportunities to grow our specialities. Also in addition to that, we're doing a lot of good work on the biomaterials, the lignin, and the sugars. We've recently announced pilot plants in the various categories and that's a longer-term initiative for us to look for new avenues of growth. Dissolving pulp as I've said earlier, we want to expand further and we do think there are opportunities. Finally, coming to our outlook statement on slide 28. Just summarizing a lot of what we've talked about already, dissolving pulp demand remains good. Pricing seems okay at the moment.

There has been a further recovery in Q2. That's looking good. Graphic paper demand remains under pressure. Having said that, prices have stabilized. Our CapEx, $350 million we've talked about. Based on market conditions, we expect Q2's EBITDA to be in line with that of, or our operating performance to be in line with that of Q2 of last year. Got to call out the rand. Obviously, the rand at the moment is about ZAR 13.40. That does put a bit of risk into the numbers if the rand were to continue to strengthen. We will reduce our net debt further before the end of the financial year. That's me gone through the presentation. Operator, I'm going to put it back to you for questions.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, if you do wish to ask a question, please press star and then one on your touchtone phone. If you decide to withdraw your question, please press star and then two to remove yourself from the queue. Again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and then one now. Our first question is from Brian Morgan of RMB Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Brian Morgan
Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Hi, guys. Thanks for the call. The first question from me here is, in terms of just going back to your comments about capital allocation, do you guys have a firm or a group-wide ROIC target? Is it 20%? Is it 25%? Coupled to that, perhaps if you could just comment, would you be looking at some point to put in or to establish a firm divvy policy like a payout ratio of some sort?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yep. Okay. On the first question, yeah, we've got return on capital employed targets. Interestingly, the projects that we are looking at at the moment, and we've announced and we continue to look at, they're well above our targets for return on capital employed. The two projects that we announced today, we're looking at paybacks there of about four years and IRRs above 20%. On your second question, the dividend payout, we have said over time, we would like to get it to three times.

Brian Morgan
Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Okay. Over time to be translated as over two years, over three years?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yes. Certainly within two years. At the end of this year, we'll make a call. As you know, last year it was five, wasn't it? We'll make a call at the end of this year, what level it should be. Definitely within two years it will be at three.

Brian Morgan
Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Okay, cool. Just last question. You've been gaining market share in Europe and in North America, and numbers are pretty impressive in terms of volumes. How does this play out? Do you see yourselves continuing to gain market share, or at what point do you run out of runway here?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Okay. What I'll do, Brian, is just, I'm gonna pass you just now to both Barry and Mark, they'll talk about their respective markets. Clearly, the investments that we've made today, or we've announced today, will reduce our exposure in those markets and will have an impact on market share. I'll allow them to expand a little bit further. Barry?

Barry van der Merwe
Group Head of Technology, Sappi

The market share gains in the recent past have been due to some extent because of other people getting out, so there's been some capacity reduction. To another extent in the business model that we approach, particularly in coated woodfree, where market shares have grown. In the future, we'd expect that those market shares would continue to grow somewhat, only in line with the capacity reductions that we will have through the project. It will not be a question of keeping the capacities at the current levels and then go for a market share dash. It'll be a cautious approach.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Mark?

Mark Gardner
President and CEO, Sappi North America

Thank you, Steve. In North America with our Cloquet and Somerset Mills, we focus on the quality and the service and with the aim to make sure the mills maintain a good backlog and stay full. Our market share will increase if we run full and the market continues to decline. It's as simple as that.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah.

Brian Morgan
Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Okay, cool. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question is from Sean Ungerer of Arqaam Capital.

Sean Ungerer
Head of Research, Arqaam Capital

Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for the time. Just in terms of the cost-saving initiatives in terms of procurement. The sort of expected savings this year is about $50 million. Could you maybe just comment on the run rate that we saw in Q1? And then just on top of that, the outlook is, I mean, the sort of run rate, you should hit the $100 million by the end of FY 2018. And then in the results, you sort of comment that by 2020 it should be greater than $100 million. Could you maybe just comment a little bit about that for me, please?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. The run rate in Q1 was about $18 million. Clearly, some of that benefit you don't see because of the fact that selling prices have come down. It's kind of offset the impact of the selling prices. I think we say in the announcement or in the presentation that the run rate by the end of the year will be $63 million, and then ultimately the full $100 million over the next two years.

Sean Ungerer
Head of Research, Arqaam Capital

Okay, great. Just in terms of the commentary, I mean, it does sort of allude to more than $100, and it seems you guys are getting there much quicker. Is there any sort of decent scope to go beyond that?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah, at least $100.

Sean Ungerer
Head of Research, Arqaam Capital

Okay, cool. Just in terms of the disruption and Saiccor in the quarter, are you able to quantify the impact on DWP volumes?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Okay. I'm gonna hand you to Alex just to provide a little bit more clarity there.

Alexander Thiel
CEO of Sappi Southern Africa, Sappi

Yeah. Thanks, Steve. Yes, the impact was roughly 10,000 tons. Some of it related to the tube leaks, and then obviously just following on onto that, a couple of operational issues and water issues. We are quite confident that most of this is behind us and with the shut in March, we will replace the economizer, which seems to have a design problem, and that should then sort this out completely.

Sean Ungerer
Head of Research, Arqaam Capital

Okay, great. Thanks. Just last one, Steve, in terms of DWP expansion, you sort of indicated that post FY 2018, I'm assuming the market will get some sort of communication in terms of what is gonna take place. Is there anything barring the debottlenecking of the 100,000 tons sitting in CapEx guidance for the next three years? Just on top of that, is there any sort of feeling at the moment whether you're going to do a JV, brownfield, greenfield sort of expansion? Thanks.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. That's something we're gonna be working on over the course of this year. We will give an update. It's only gonna be in the 2018 financial year that we'll probably, hopefully this time next year, we'll be able to give you an update on where we want to expand further. It's not in those CapEx numbers that I've given you. In terms of greenfield, brownfields, within South Africa, outside of South Africa, it's too early to say. We're considering all the options and, as I say, we will give you updates at a future date.

Sean Ungerer
Head of Research, Arqaam Capital

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question is from Lars Kjellberg of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you. I just wanted to come back to the projects that you announced today. Steve, you're talking quite upbeat terms of 20% above IRRs. Can we sort of just step back a bit and look at Alfeld that took quite some time to get qualified and get volumes through and profitability step up. How are these projects different? Also with a backdrop of seemingly a meaningful amount of consumer board in Europe, I appreciate there's a more sort of SBS or SBB as you call it, but there's some folding box boards and there's a lot of volume in the market. Also if you can share what you're doing at Somerset in terms of packaging grades at that mill.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

All right. What I'm gonna do, I'll initially handle it and then again, I'm gonna give pass to Barry and Mark to give a little bit more clarity. In terms of Alfeld, you are right that there was a bit of a slow ramp up. In fact, we were looking at the numbers today and going into more detail and yes, year one after the conversion was slower than we initially projected. If you look beyond that in year two and three and beyond, we're now ahead of where we thought we would be at this point in time. The overall returns on that project were 20% plus. We are very happy with that conversion. In terms of the specific categories, I did refer to them earlier, but I'll let Barry maybe just talk about them a little bit further.

Barry van der Merwe
Group Head of Technology, Sappi

Thank you, Steve. We are not going to be very exposed to the folding box board market in Europe because there's a lot of other investments in that area. We really are concentrating on the really top end of the SBB quality. That market is also growing quite sharply and the capacities there are well filled. There's not much investment into new capacity going on there. We know from our customers that the demand is going to be there. In terms of the speed of the ramp up, yes, we expect the same kind of qualification period as we would normally expect that differs from sector to sector, but can take anywhere between six months and a year.

The same ramp up in year two and year three will be the same, and the kind of targets we have are really for the year 2020, when we expect.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Full ramp up

Barry van der Merwe
Group Head of Technology, Sappi

to be full.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. Mark?

Mark Gardner
President and CEO, Sappi North America

Thanks, Steve. On the Somerset PM1 rebuild, it's a fairly unique opportunity and I'm not gonna get into too many details, but the machine is uniquely situated in the way it was originally designed and the way it will be rebuilt to service not only the coated graphics business that we currently service, but a wide range of C1S, C2S, and specialty coatings that allow us to go through a variety of different packaging grades, including some very heavyweight grades that we'll be able to make out of there. With unique proprietary technology that we employ, that will give us an advantage in many different aspects in the market, we believe. We did build a three-year ramp up on those grades into the plans.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

That was gonna be some sort of SBS quality grade, or how should we categorize that?

Mark Gardner
President and CEO, Sappi North America

It will certainly be one of the grades that will be out of service, yes.

Lars Kjellberg
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, a reminder if you wish to ask a question, please press star and then one. Our next question is from Roger Spitz of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Roger Spitz
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you. Good afternoon. Could you provide your view of calendar 2017 and maybe a midterm industry view of the global viscose dissolving wood pulp volume growth outlook, please?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. I'm gonna pass you to Gary again. It's always nice for him to expand a little bit further. As things currently stand, demand is full. We're seeing good growth relative to prior years. Pricing is good. Over time, our projections are around 4% growth, and we've been beating that for the last 15 months or so. I'll allow Gary just to expand a bit further.

Glen Pearce
CFO, Sappi

No, thank you, Steve. Exactly. Growth is still around the three to four percent. If you look at what's happening on the cotton side, there are also some restrictions on cotton going forward. As Steve has highlighted, we remain full out on production. We're also close with our customers in terms of their growth plans and making sure we support the demands going forward. For the rest of 2017, I think it's very positive.

Roger Spitz
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

It sounds like you perhaps imply that you may be gaining share. Do you feel like you're gaining share, and do you expect to take more share going forward?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. Look, in terms of our capacity, it is obviously our capacity. Clearly, we've been boosting our production a little bit at Ngodwana, and we have the swing capabilities at Cloquet. Yeah, we've ramped up a little bit at Cloquet, by implication, that means we have gained a little bit market share. It hasn't been a significant swing, Gary. Yeah.

Glen Pearce
CFO, Sappi

No.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah.

Glen Pearce
CFO, Sappi

The market's grown, and we've grown with it, I'd say.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. Look, clearly with the favorable pricing, it makes the economics of Cloquet better for us. We'll continue to monitor that and take advantage of markets as it suits us.

Roger Spitz
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you for that. In terms of release paper, I guess that's felt like a drag for a bit of time here. Can you tell us, is it a positive EBITDA contributor or positive EBITDA less CapEx contributor?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yes, it is positive. Although it may have underperformed, it still makes good margins, and it is positive for us. Yes, it's not a high-growth area for us, but it makes a contribution, so we're reasonably happy.

Roger Spitz
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Okay. Lastly, I'm looking at page 23. This is the paper board market, the boxes on that page. On the right side, are some of these products you would make, you could make? I was a little unclear about that. On the right side, it talks about North American CRB market. Are you looking to enter the North American CRB market?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

No. Perhaps we should have qualified that. The green ones are the ones that we will be in across our mills. We're not looking at the two blocks on the right. We just put it there just to put it in context.

Roger Spitz
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

The green ones. Understood. Thank you very much. Appreciate your help.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Sabelo Ngcobo of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Sabelo Ngcobo
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Hi. Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Just two questions quickly. Firstly, what's the downtime going to be on the upcoming projects in Europe and U.S., and what's the likely impact on EBITDA? Secondly, I don't know if you're able to disclose, how much does specialty packaging currently contribute to EBITDA, and what contribution will it be after these projects?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Okay. I'll take your second question first, then I'm going to hand to Mark and Barry just to talk about exactly how the downtime will work in the respective projects. Just on the contribution of the EBITDA for specialities, it's not a number we give currently, but it's in the teens.

Sabelo Ngcobo
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Okay.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

As I said, our intention will be to break that into a separate segment probably not this financial year, but next financial year. Barry, do you want to talk about your share?

Barry van der Merwe
Group Head of Technology, Sappi

In terms of the downtimes to do the rebuild, they're in the order of 30 days. In terms of the effect on EBITDA, because there is a carousel involvement and there is free capacity to do the carousel, we don't expect a significant effect on EBITDA because we will be able to carousel orders from one mill to another as the rebuilds take place. I expect that to be minimal.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Mark?

Mark Gardner
President and CEO, Sappi North America

Thank you, Steve. On the Somerset number 1 rebuild, it's a very significant rebuild. We'll do a small shutdown in December of 2017, then in the month of March, pretty much we'll be down 2018 for that rebuild.

Sabelo Ngcobo
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Okay. What's the likely EBITDA impact on that, on the Somerset?

Mark Gardner
President and CEO, Sappi North America

Obviously, that amount of downtime, there'll be some there, but we do have a lot of flexibility between where we make our grades, particularly at Somerset, but also with Europe. So it could be a 10% plus hit on our regional EBITDA during that quarter we're down.

Sabelo Ngcobo
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Okay. Sorry, just to go back to the first question or to my second question. Where do you target Specialty or what percentage of EBITDA do you target Specialty taking up?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. If you look at these projects that we've announced, let's summarize it all. In the U.S., if you look at the existing business and the additional volumes that we're going to create, that business is going to be about 400,000 tons. In Europe, we're currently about 300,000 tons, and with the extra 200,000 tons, that will give us 500,000 tons overall. In terms of our 2020 vision, we are targeting specialties to be at least 25% of our EBITDA.

Sabelo Ngcobo
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Okay. Thank you very much. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and then one. Our next question is from Wade Napier of Avior Capital Markets.

Wade Napier
Analyst, Avior Capital Markets

Hi, guys. Thanks for the call. A couple of questions from my side. In your outlook, when you're guiding for Q2 operating performance to be in line with last year Q2, what sort of ZAR are you assuming? Secondly, I just want to get some sort of clarity on the market size of sort of specialty grades in North America, because this 350,000 tons looks like a lot of sort of capacity in my mind. Particularly if it's largely focused at SBB, given that I'm looking at Europe and it's sort of like a half a million ton market. You're sort of talking about another 350,000 tons a year. I assume with that 350,000 tons, you're obviously converting coated free sheet and you'll try and send some of those volumes over to Lanaken as well.

What do you think your net impact of sort of lost coated free sheet volumes in North America is going to be? Thanks very much.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. Sorry, just remind me your first question again.

Wade Napier
Analyst, Avior Capital Markets

What's your ZAR assumption for saying that Q2 is going to be in line with Q2?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. Well, look, we're already halfway through February, and we obviously know our January results. We know where the ZAR has been, and we've locked in our sales for the next few weeks. We kind of know where the ZAR is, and it's at current levels. Based on the combination of what we've achieved and the rates we know we've achieved and where the ZAR is today, that's what we're basing it on. We're pretty confident about achieving that Q2 number. On the specialities at Somerset, Mark, the question about broadly where is the 350,000 tons gonna come from?

Mark Gardner
President and CEO, Sappi North America

Somerset Mill today is, we will use round numbers, roughly a little more than 800,000 ton mill. After the rebuild, depending on the grade mix, it will move to slightly more than 1 million tons. We have plans and we believe we can grow the specialty grades to roughly 400 of that 1 million tons. At least 600 that can be, which will be coated woodfree. We are not eliminating the ability to make either of those grades on number 1. It will depend on the market as we move through those development years.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

The other part of the question was, where would we get the 400 from, broadly speaking? What categories? Yeah.

Mark Gardner
President and CEO, Sappi North America

It will be in C1S, through label stock, all the way up through to the SBS market.

Wade Napier
Analyst, Avior Capital Markets

Okay, cool. Can I just get a follow-up on your sort of recent pricing announcement? You are looking for 8% across the board in Europe. You sort of gave comment that was on the back of sort of input cost pressures. Are you expecting 8% rise in variable costs?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. Based on where pulp prices are going or are expected to go over the next few months, yes, we feel that it would be in that range. Obviously we've made the announcement effective in March. It's just been done and clearly we want it to hold. Yes, that would be our expectation.

Wade Napier
Analyst, Avior Capital Markets

Okay, cool. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question is from Hamed Khorsand of BWS Financial. Please go ahead.

Hamed Khorsand
Analyst, BWS Financial

Thank you for taking my questions. First off, you're talking about North America as far as the investment process. Could you detail as to if you're seeing any kind of market share gains because you're moving prices lower, and what your plans are as far as building inventory ahead of the capital investments that you're making going into specialty more and more?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Yeah. Look, obviously we have reduced our prices in the U.S. That has helped us gain market share. Obviously it's not just that, I mean, that's our service levels and our relationships with our key customers. It has been a factor at play. Clearly from a Sappi perspective, it's important we keep our mills full and we maximize the efficiencies at the mill. That has been a contributor. The inventory levels, it's still early. It's too early to say.

Hamed Khorsand
Analyst, BWS Financial

Right.

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

We haven't started building the inventories. Mark, you wanted to talk about that?

Mark Gardner
President and CEO, Sappi North America

No, we will manage our inventories to service our customer base. I would maybe reflect back a few years ago when we did a major rebuild on the wet end of number 3 at Somerset. We were able to, on the front side of that rebuild and on the back side of that, meet demands of our customers without having to build up very much inventory. We will manage the inventories about where they are today, and as we get closer to the outages, we'll be building some inventory during that time, obviously to support that outage.

Hamed Khorsand
Analyst, BWS Financial

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, a final reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and then one now. We will pause a moment to see if we have any further questions. Sorry about that. Gentlemen, we have no further questions. Do you have any closing comments?

Steve Binnie
CEO, Sappi

Operator, thank you very much. I just want to thank everybody for joining us on the call today. We look forward to updating you at the end of Q2. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes this conference. You may now disconnect your lines.