Welcome to PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad, and this briefing for third quarter 2023. Hello, and As-salamu alaykum. I'm Zaida Alia, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us. I am the event host and moderator for today. Ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, we are hosting this briefing over the MS Teams platform, so we hope the session will run smoothly. To avoid any disruption and glitches, we shall not do any video today. You should, by now, be able to access and download the results from the Bursa Malaysia website. The presentation materials are also available on our corporate website. As usual, the agenda for today will be a short presentation of the quarterly results, followed by the Q&A session. Before we begin, I shall go over a few housekeeping rules. To avoid any interruptions, kindly always ensure your mics are on mute.
To pose questions during the Q&A, please use the Raise Your Hand function. Once I call your name, please unmute yourself, state your name and organization, and then proceed to ask your question. In the interest of time, we will not. We have disabled the chat, so please go to the chat. The Q&A function is, will be used if you. Can only be used to ask any, you have any problems, with the audio or visuals. As there are many physically present here today, we would appreciate very much for you to pose your questions directly and verbally. As a reminder, all information presented and provided today is strictly intended for participants of the meeting. Recording of the presentation will be made available on our website in a few days.
Should you record the presentation on your end, kindly restrict the use for your own purposes only, and not for the public distribution. To ensure a smooth ... Sorry. Ladies and gentlemen, we are pleased to have our speakers for today's briefing, led by our Managing Director and CEO, Mr. Mohammad Yusri, and our CFO, Mr. Azli. Also present to take questions after the presentation are the rest of the senior management, comprising our Chief Manufacturing Officer, Mr. Zamri, Chief Marketing Officer, Mr. Shakeel, Head of Strategic Planning and Ventures, Mr. Yaacob. Without further ado, I shall now hand you over to Mr. Yusri for the performance highlights.
Thank you, Alia. Hello, everyone. Good evening. Thank you for joining us today. At the beginning of the year, we saw unfavorable developments in the banking sector, coupled with the implementation of more restrictive monetary policies. This sparked worries about the potential repercussions on global economic recovery. Fast-forward nine months, now in quarter three, the global economic landscape continue to decelerate. Factors such as lower-than-expected economic data in China, persistent inflation, and disparities in regional monetary policies contributed to economic uncertainty and negatively impact market growth. As a result, the average global GDP growth slipped from 1.85% in the first nine months of 2022 to 1.77% within the same period this year.
The slowdown is further reflected in the average global PMI, which contracted to 49.1 during the nine months of the year, down from 49.8 in the same period last year. Global manufacturing sector declined, with lower manufacturing sector output, primarily due to sluggish demand recovery, which saw a reduction of the new orders. Against the nine months of 2022, the benchmark Brent crude price fell 23% to an average of $82 per barrel this year on lower global energy consumption, primarily in China. The struggles in the Chinese economy, accentuated by the crisis in its property and real estate sectors, gave contagious effect on other sectors, which ultimately weigh on the oil demand. Against this challenging backdrop, the chemicals industry saw subdued commodity growth, propelled by decreased consumer spending and weaker demand from the end markets.
As a result, product prices declined across the board on oversupply concerns, coupled with the normalization of natural gas prices in Europe, specifically for F&M product. Next slide. Ladies and gentlemen, early this year, we kicked off with the plant maintenance of our plant at PC LDPE and PC Aromatics. In the second quarter, there were unexpected downtimes at PC Fertiliser Sabah and PC Methanol 2 due to the supply issues from maintenance on the supplier side. In the third quarter, we saw continued challenge as we experienced mechanical issues at PC Methanol Plant Two again, which saw the plant shut down for almost a month. Nonetheless, to ensure that we remain on track with our maintenance plans, we continued with our plant maintenance activities and executed various plant activities at ABF, PC Ammonia, and PC Glycols and Derivatives.
Notwithstanding the setbacks, our group plant utilization rate for the period stood commendably at 85%, comparable to year-to-date of 2022. Our production volume rose by 8%, reaching 7.8 million tons, thanks to the additional volume from our specialty company, Perstorp. Sales volume showed a year-on-year increase in all segments, driven by higher production, coupled with additional contributions from Specialty Chemicals and also our Pengerang Integrated Complex. This led to a 6% uptick in group revenue, reaching MYR 21.5 billion, despite a 29% decrease in overall product prices. Group's EBITDA, however, declined significantly to MYR 3.1 billion, mainly due to lower product spreads, particularly ethane-related product, urea, ammonia, and higher maintenance costs, as well as higher energy and utility costs.
Consequently, EBITDA margin was lower at 15%, compared to 31% in the same period last year. The group's PAT also declined to MYR 1.6 billion from MYR 5.8 billion during the same period last year, mainly due to lower EBITDA, lower share of profits from our JVs, and unrealized foreign exchange loss on revaluation of shareholders' loan to our subsidiary, Perstorp. Next, I'll have Azli to take you through the details of the financial performance.
Thank you, Che Yusri. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us this evening. Now, let's dive into the fiscal highlights, starting with the Olefins & Derivatives segment on page three of the deck, where we will compare the result of the third quarter 2023 against second quarter 2023. So the global PMI continued to contract in the third quarter, primarily due to slowdown in the manufacturing sector caused by weaker demand, which saw a decline in both new order and output. Although there was small uptick on China data recovery, the pace was slower than expected, which affected the downstream industry demand. Consequently, O&D product prices were impacted.
On the operations front, our plant utilization for the segment was lower quarter-on-quarter at 79%, with the execution of several plant maintenance activities or pit stop, and the unplanned shutdown at PC Olefins due to utilities disruption in Kerteh. Both production and sales volume were lower against the preceding quarter. Additionally, the O&D was challenged by sluggish demand amidst abundant supply from the startup of new plants in China, along with an influx of deep sea cargo from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Segment revenue decreased by 4% quarter-on-quarter to MYR 3.5 billion, mainly due to lower sales volume, compounded by lower average product prices. EBITDA saw a significant decline by 31% to MYR 404 million, compared to MYR 584 million in the preceding quarter.
This is due to higher maintenance costs, lower sales volume, and decreased product spread. PAT halved to MYR 211 million compared to the same period last year. Now, let's move on to Fertiliser & Methanol segment on page four. This quarter, we saw positive development in the F&M segment, particularly for urea and ammonia. The urea and ammonia prices increased by 19% and 20% respectively, contributed by bullish market in September for ammonia, driven by shortage in various regions, such as in the Middle East and Indonesia. The uptrend for urea began in July, influenced by volume shortage in the spot market, as most suppliers have committed their volumes to fulfill their term contract in August. This was further boosted by the Indian tender around 1.7 million tons for September shipments.
On the operational front, plant utilization rate increased by 3% at 76% due to lower downtime. If you recall, we experienced shutdown in PC Fertiliser Sabah and PC Methanol Plant two last quarter due to feedstock supply disruption. With better plant utilization rate, production volume rose 6% to 1.4 million tons. However, sales volume was lower, declining 6%, mainly due to lower ammonia volume, with turnaround shutdown at PC Ammonia and inventory management exercise for urea to cater for our long-term contract requirement in the coming quarter. This has led to 4% decrease in the F&M segment revenue. Nevertheless, despite lower revenue, our EBITDA improved 31% to MYR 601 million, driven by higher product spread and lower fuel, energy, and utilities costs.
The EBITDA margin was recorded at 33%, driven by higher increase in product spread, mainly urea. In line with the higher EBITDA, PAT for the F&M segment surged around 50% quarter on quarter to MYR 360 million. Now, let's move on to Specialty segment on page 5 of the deck. In quarter three, 2023, the Specialty segment recorded higher EBITDA. This is mainly due to lower operational expenses, mainly due to lower manpower costs from the summer holiday effect and lower repairs and maintenance, as quarter two, 2023 includes plant turnaround in Stenungsund and Toledo sites of Perstorp. This was partially offset by lower revenue and compressed margin, mainly attributed by lower prices, driven by competition and the slow recovery in key segment. Major markets, such as construction and consumer good, face slow growth due to high interest rate and inflation.
However, lower raw material cost was observed with positive impact to the margins. More specifically, the key segment were impacted by the following: Lower volumes was observed for key products, such as Alkyd, for Resins & Coatings segment. Nonetheless, we observed higher demand for powder polyester, for resins and coatings, as well as overall lubricant oil additive and chemical that support our positive volume variance for the quarter. There's also strong competition and price pressure from the Asian producers, which have adversely impacted selling price across the Engineered Fluids and Silicones segment. For the Animal Nutrition segment, we saw increase in margin with favorable raw material prices and higher sales volume, better than specialty product mix. All in all, the Specialty segment was stronger quarter-on-quarter, but they're still negatively impacted based on the continued pressure on prices.
Next, let's look at the group's quarter three performance on page 6. At our Malaysian operation, our plant utilization decreased to 77% from 82% in the previous quarter. This is mainly due to higher pit stop related shutdowns at ABF, PC Glycols and PC Derivatives, and scheduled turnaround maintenance at PC Ammonia. As mentioned by Encik Yusri earlier, we also experienced mechanical issues at PC Methanol Plant 2, which saw plant shut down for almost a month, and unplanned shutdown at PC Olefins due to utility supply disruption. For our international operation, we saw slightly higher production and sales volume from the Specialty segment. Despite comparable average product prices against the preceding quarter, the group revenue declined 5% to MYR 6.8 billion, from MYR 7.1 billion in the third quarter of 2023, mainly due to lower overall sales volume.
The Group's EBITDA and EBITDA margin was comparable at MYR 1 billion and 15% respectively. However, our PAT for the quarter was lower by 31% at MYR 439 million ringgit, due to lower unrealized Forex gain on revaluation of shareholders' loan to Pengerang Petchem Company. Now, let's look at the cash flow and balance sheet on pages seven and eight, respectively. On the cash flow, we recorded slightly higher cash balance, mainly due to cash flow from operations over the period. After taking into account CapEx investment incurred at PIC, incurred for Per storp growth project, as well as for our projects, in Gurun, for the melamine project. This also take into account the dividend that we paid to our shareholders over the periods. Moving on to balance sheet.
Total assets was higher at MYR 58.7 billion, mainly due to higher property, plant and equipment by MYR 1.4 billion, contributed by project costs incurred at Pengerang, i.e. Pengerang Petrochemical Company and PC Isononanol, Perstorp expansion project and turnaround preparation costs. There's also higher long-term receivable by MYR 924 million, mainly represented by deferred payment consideration arising from partial disposal of Fertiliser Sabah. Total equity was higher by MYR 1.9 billion, at MYR 41.6 billion, mainly attributable to profit generated during the period, and effect foreign currency translation reserve due to the weakening of ringgit against U.S. dollar as well as euro. That's all for the financial breakdown. I'm heading back to Encik Yusri for updates on sustainability matters and way forward.
Thank you, Azli. As always, we have our quarterly update on sustainability metrics, as you see on the screen, on the screen now. On a year-to-date basis, our GHG emissions rate higher due to both planned and unplanned shutdowns at several our facilities mentioned earlier. Nonetheless, we have continued with our Operation Optimization initiative, such as flaring and venting minimization and fuel optimization. We have also reduced our Scope 2 by purchasing green electricity tariff from TNB, and with that, we are on track to achieve our medium-term target of 20% GHG emission reduction by 2030. Our other metrics are provided here on the slides for your consumptions, but I would like to move on with our key milestone on our new plastic economy journey.
This has been one of our, of the key items that we have been looking in our drive towards driving plastic circularity. As you can see on the slides, ladies and gentlemen, our journey into plastic circularity, you know, started in 2019, when we signed a memorandum of understanding with Plastic Energy to collaborate in addressing end-of-life plastic waste that cannot be addressed by conventional recycling method. This collaboration marked the first step we took towards circular economy to maximize the plastic value chain. Fast-forward to this year, 2023, we completed our studies and strengthened our commitment to drive the circular economy for plastics, with the final investment decision to build a chemical recycling plant in Pengerang, Johor.
This facility, with a capacity of 33,000 tons per annum for end-of-life plastics, would utilize Plastic Energy's patented technology to convert such plastics into pyrolysis oil, known as TACOIL , and this oil will then serve as a chemical feedstock towards the production of sustainable plastics. This plant is set to be operational in the first half of 2026, and will play a key role in contributing to sustainable plastic ecosystem. We are very excited with this new venture to support Malaysia's aspirations to phase out single-use plastics in accordance with Malaysia's Plastic Sustainability Roadmap, 2021, 2030, and at the same time, we are able to cater to the increasing demand for sustainable packaging from major brands and customers.
Moving forward, we plan on obtaining the Circular Polymer Certification from the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification, ISCC, a leading globally applicable certification system that ensure compliance with high ecological and social sustainability requirements, greenhouse gas emission savings, and traceability throughout the supply chain. This effort is part of our pledge toward net zero carbon emissions 2050, while creating positive economy, environment, and social impact. Now, let's have a quick look at the market for the remaining of the year. Over the past few weeks, there have been positive development in product prices, attributed to the rising trend in, in crude oil prices and some increases in the restocking activities before the year-end lull. Ethylene prices are anticipated to be stable in view of volatile energy market, weak affordability in downstream sectors, and year-end season.
MEG price is at, is forecasted to be soft on rising supply from the upcoming new plant. Polyethylene is expected to see weak demand due to lull season, as market players will continue to adopt cautious buying behavior and keeping low inventories in their stock during the year-end. Paraxylene price is forecasted to be stable on tight supply, with ongoing maintenance and unplanned shutdowns, especially in China. We look at F&M segment. We expect softening urea prices as the recent Indian tender was completed on the 67 million ton, while other key regions are seeing market activity. This continued uncertainty as the Chinese government restrict export by extending the duration of legal inspections to 60 days, to secure domestic supply for the upcoming spring planting season. Ammonia prices is forecasted to be stable, as most of the supply are coming back online, while demand is still weak.
Methanol prices is expected to be stable, following methanol unit outages in the Southeast Asia region. Our own unit, Methanol Plant Two, restarted operations on the second week of October, and in the midst of fulfilling the backlog orders after unplanned shutdowns for about a month. At the same time, there is weak downstream demand for acetic acid, formaldehyde, and biodiesel, owing to high inventories at major port. The performance of our Specialty segments continue to rely on improvements in the end markets demand, that tracks the macroeconomic environment, as well as effective feedstock management, especially in Europe. Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties are expected to continue and weigh on organic growth, but the weak in demand for focus segments is expected to have bottomed out moving forward. End markets, such as construction, is expected to remain sluggish in the prevailing global inflationary environment.
As compared to the U.S. and EU, China's economic development and recovery is still, is still slower than expected, which may limit the support for recovery in Specialty segment. Overall, market remains challenging towards the year-end. As such, we will continue to closely monitor the market dynamics, paying particular attention to factors such as geopolitical tensions and the progress of China's recovery, to ensure we remain, we, we remain agile and effective in our response to market volatility. Ladies and gentlemen, before we proceed to the Q&A session, let me touch briefly on our ongoing projects and strategic focus area. Our nine-month performance result was marked by persistent inflationary pressures and the ongoing impacts of monetary policies on economic growth. Despite these challenges, our commitment to growth and diversification remains.
Our joint venture projects, the specialty ethoxylates plant in Kerteh and the nitrile butadiene latex plant in Pengerang, are progressing on schedule and are expected to be operational this quarter. Perstorp Penta plant in Sayakha, India, is on track for commissioning in the first half of 2024. Simultaneously, we are focused on implementing post-acquisition integration work plans to deliver identified value creation projects to strengthen our pursuit of growth and expansion at Perstorp. As we mentioned earlier, we are most excited about the final investment decision to build the advanced chemical recycling plant in Pengerang, Johor, which is set to be operational in the first half of 2026. While on the operation front, we recently completed the scheduled turnaround at our PC MTBE plant, and there are still some smaller maintenance activities towards year-end.
Our focus is for an effective execution of these plans, while prioritizing the safety of our employees and all the contractors involved. That, ladies and gentlemen, concludes my update for today, and we invite question and answer.
Thank you, Sri. Ladies and gentlemen, to pose any questions, please use the Raise Hand function. Once I state your name, please unmute yourself, state your name and organization, and then proceed to ask your question. Please be reminded that we will not be taking questions posted through the Q&A function. The first question from Ho Meng, UOB.
Hi, Ho Meng.
Hi, can you hear me? Ho Meng here.
Yep.
I just want to double-check. You said that the methanol plant had an unplanned shutdown. If I recall from the news, right, it was reported that the unplanned shutdown was, I think it happened since early August. And then you said early October, it has restarted, right? So, can you confirm whether it was a two-month shutdown? And also recently, in your Kerteh plant, there was also if you can remind where was there an unplanned shutdown for the Kerteh one or was it a planned shutdown and only recently it has restarted? Yeah.
Hi, Ho Meng, Zamri here.
Yep.
For the methanol, first question, the methanol, shutdown, lasted for 30 days. Yeah. And for the second question, the shutdown in, Kerteh facility, it was-
Uh, yeah.
It was a planned shutdown, but we have a slight delay to come back up because of the utility disruption from external supplier.
I see. When was this supposed to start? And can you confirm that the actual restart was only in October or December, or around November?
The actual restart was in October, Ho Meng.
Okay. Actual restart was in October, but it wasn't a full restart, right? It was still a partial restart, as from what I read on the news, I think. Yeah.
When we restart the plant, it was a full restart.
Oh, okay.
Yes. I think coming out from the turnaround, we started up, and then the utility supplier had a failure on their side, so that brought the several plants in Kerteh down again. And-
Ah, I see. I see.
Then we gradually... Once they are ready, then we gradually start back up, Ho Meng. So, I'm not sure the news that says partial restart, but after the turnaround, we restarted, then the site tripped because of utility supply, and then after that, we restarted back.
Okay. This was reported by Polymer Update.
Yeah.
It states that the number one cracker in Kerteh was shut down around early October-
Yes.
- and then restarted, maybe end of October, like, towards the end.
Yes.
It was operating at 60% capacity. This period was due to the utility site failure, I guess?
Yes, yes.
If you are referring to the cracker only.
Uh.
was not on any planned shutdown. Yeah?
Yeah.
In the other facility. But when the utility and power disturbance happened, it tripped that cracker, and immediately after it recover, we ramp up the rate.
... I see. So overall, what will be the impact towards your fourth quarter numbers? Or should we, I don't know, should we expect no impact because you say it's utility-side failure, right? So, will you claim anything from them, or how does it work?
Well, for the fourth quarter number, based on the last couple of months, overall, PU will maintain above 85. I'm referring to overall PCG plant utilization, yeah, I mean.
All right. All right. From this issue alone, the Kerteh downtime issue, will it be a big, major impact or what will be your guidance, you know, from this particular event due to the utility side, the utility impact, financially speaking?
The impact that third quarter incident will not be huge to me because we ramp up immediately after we recover the utilities.
Oh, okay. Okay, got it. Thank you.
Yeah.
Next question is coming from Raymond Yap. Raymond, please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good evening, everyone. Yes. Okay, so I wanted to go back to, circle back to the point that Azli made on specialties. You said that specialties OpEx actually fell in the third quarter compared to second quarter, and was because of lower repair and maintenance, and also lower manpower costs due to the summer holidays. So, I was scratching my head there. Does that mean that people don't get paid during summer holiday?
No. No, I think it's usual in Europe, they take, you know, holiday during those period. So some of the expenses we pay still... Don't worry, Raymond, we still pay their salary, but some of the allowances and other fixed costs related to manpower are minimized during those period, those holiday period. So-
I see.
In a sense, during those holiday period, there's minimal manpower during that particular period.
Okay, okay. So in other words, come fourth quarter, the manpower cost will go back to normal. And in the past, you've mentioned that, for specialties, there tends to be a bit of a destocking effect in the fourth quarter before restocking comes in the first quarter.
Yeah.
Do you see that happening already?
To tell you the truth, we've been speaking about destocking since quarter four last year, and then that particular restocking somewhat underwhelmed, right? And we still expect a little bit of destocking towards the year-end, as consumer tends to have a lower inventory towards the year-end, right? And that's why when we conclude our message today, we mentioned that the Specialty segment will remain challenging, although there are-
Mm
... pockets of recovery in some key segments.
Right. Okay. And also, the average selling price for the specialties products seems to be going through quite a continuous decline. So even in the third quarter compared to second quarter, the dip in the ASP is quite marked. I mean, is this trend continuing into the fourth quarter, Azli?
We saw, so uptick in the quarter four, Raymond, so that's a good progress moving into quarter one next year.
Okay. Right. Okay. Now, just moving on to the F&M side. You mentioned that there was higher production in the third quarter compared to second quarter, but sales volume, sales volume actually declined as you were managing something to do with urea. So I wasn't sure if I understood correctly.
Yeah
...or understood fully what you said, Azli. And then the follow-up question to that is: Is sales volume going to snap back and grow faster than production in the fourth quarter?
Okay. If you recall, in last quarter, quarter two, we had this unplanned shutdown because of the feedstock supply disruption. We managed to mitigate the impact by drawing down on our inventory. But, as we pull out from that particular incident, we are building up in our inventory. So of course, production volume is goes back to normal, but we need to have a certain level of inventory before we can schedule shipment moving forward.
Mm.
So it's more of inventory management, rather than not producing as much. So that's why you see some discrepancy between sales volume and production volume, because we need to manage the inventories for our shipment in the part, the next particular month.
Okay, I see.
Yeah.
All right, then, just two more questions, on the O&D side.
Yeah.
O&D and F&M actually has been seeing quite a lot of unplanned events, and that probably has led to quite a lot of maintenance costs in the second and third quarter. I mean, so far, tracking the fourth quarter, do you see maintenance costs possibly trending at a lower rate compared to second and third quarters?
Like, as we mentioned earlier, we still have few planned maintenance activity, but not as busy as quarter two and quarter three. We anticipate a much lower maintenance cost into quarter four.
... Okay, and my final question is, what kind of commissioning losses did you incur for Pengerang this third quarter?
Okay. Thankfully, the commissioning losses have somewhat reduced as the volumes increases once they grow up in term of ramping up rate. And it's also supported by the fact that we have favorable US dollar over ringgit. So that, in a way, helps the forex. The forex gain does helps the contribution of PPC into PCG.
Okay. So last quarter was MYR 70 million. This quarter is lower than that?
Yes, much lower than that.
Okay. Do you have a figure, Azli?
Half of that.
Okay, sure. All right, that's it for me. Thank you.
Thank you, Raymond.
Next, we have Jeremy Yap.
Hi, good evening. I have a few questions. So my first one would be, I think throughout the Bursa pack, you guys mentioned that the O&D quarter-on-quarter was down due to lower mark-to-market gains on your shareholding loan to your Aramco JV entity, right? So do you mind reminding us, what is—how much is this total loan?
That is basically revaluation of our shareholders loan to Pengerang.
Yeah, but, do you mind reminding us, what is the size of this total loan?
It's about $500 million.
$500 million, yeah?
Yeah.
Okay. So my follow-up question would be: how, how much was the gain of this, mark-to-market gains, right, in third quarter? And how much was it in second quarter?
That's basically being too specific, Jeremy. We don't typically disclose that by company. I hope you will appreciate that, Jeremy.
Okay. My follow-up question would be, what is the reason for such high tax rates for the quarter?
Okay. As explained in our Bursa announcement, some of the higher tax expense for the quarter, mainly due to higher deductibles. To be specific, is to do with our accruals for the BRB announcement, which cannot be deductible. So we see this as a one-time occurrence. As a guidance moving forward, we anticipate our effective tax rate, for quarter to quarter, will be range bound around 10%-15%.
Okay. Going through, like, segment by segment, right? Like, so for your O&D segment, what is your target fourth quarter utilization rate and also for F&M?
Okay, I will give a total PCG group plant utilization overall for 2023. In light of our recent incident for the feedstock interruption at Sarawak, Sabah gas pipeline, as well as the unplanned shutdown at PC Methanol, which is... Both are big plants, and we probably have challenges to meet our internal target of plant utilization of 90%. We are anticipating our plant utilization for the full year 2023 above 85%.
Okay, my final question would be regarding Pengerang. When do you guys plan to COD, plan for COD? And when will you guys like consolidate depreciation and interest costs into your PCEMS books?
Okay, Jeremy, I think it is progressing. To be specific, we still have about five performance test runs to be completed. Three on the polypropylene plants, one on the glycol plant, and one on the PC isononanol plant. So we are progressing, and those and we expect the PTR to be completed in quarter one. So the decision to move from a project to a commercial operation date will be taken around that time, assessing all the PTRs that we have done. So currently, one of the three PTR on the PP is ongoing, started today. We expect the glycol PTR in December, and hopefully then we can schedule the isononanol PTR in January, February.
That's the current plan that we have, Jeremy.
On your second question, we will start depreciate the plant in quarter one next year.
Okay. So, basically, in the middle of quarter one, now, yeah?
Yes.
All right. Thank you.
Next, we have Vivek.
Hi, sir, and thank you so much for the presentation. Hope I'm audible?
Yes.
Yeah. Thank you so much, sir, for the presentation. Just to, just one question from my side.... I think in the last quarter, you've mentioned that particularly for first quarter, you were also facing a lot of competition from low-cost, Chinese, exports as well. If you could just give some color in terms of how the, both the demand and supply situation is evolving in Europe, going into the fourth quarter, that'll be very helpful.
I'll get Debbie, our COO for specialty, to answer that specific question for you, Vivek.
Okay. So, hi, thank you for the question. So we have been seeing this competition, the low cost, the influx going from China to Europe. And we have seen, you know, there's two factors has been stabilized in order to lessen the condition. One is the Chinese market has been picking up, so they can supply for their domestic. And two is, you know, we would have a different approach to fend off with the Chinese. For example, you know, if Europe has something like the U.S. anti-dumping. So the situation with the quarter four, we see there's a little bit lessen coming from the competition, but it's not a dramatic change.
The general belief coming from the market is, we've probably seen the bottom, the trough, but, we'll keep our finger crossed. The general consensus, we will see some recovery in the second half of 2024.
Sure, ma'am. Yeah. Thank you so much for that. And just to follow up, you know, is there any particular segment that seems to be significantly worse affected, or is it just a broad-based phenomenon across the board?
It's generally speaking, it's a general phenomenon. If you're talking about specific segments, we've probably seen most market segment has been suffering, not only from the competition, but also from the soft demand with the geopolitical and all the impact that we have been talking about. There are very few segments that they're still maintaining pretty okay growth. Namely, it is the Automotive and Aviation, right? And those two segments actually suffered the most in the during the COVID time. So those two segments except those two segments, most other market has been very soft.
Sure, ma'am. Thank you so much. Just a last clarification from me. I think Sir mentioned that the losses on Pengerang have narrowed. Did you mention the losses are half on a sequential basis?
Yes. Compared to quarter two, the losses of Pengerang into quarter three has halved.
Sure, Sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you, Vivek.
Next, we have Azim from BIMB. Please go ahead, Azim.
We cannot hear you, Azim.
We will move to the next question from Ahmad. Please proceed, Ahmad.
Hello, Ahmad? So maybe we move first and then let them come back.
Raymond? Please go ahead, Raymond.
Hi. Yeah, hi. Can you hear me?
Yeah, yeah, Raymond.
We can hear you.
Okay. Okay, sure. Azli, I just wanted to get back to the comment you made just now about the effective tax rate guidance at 10%-15%.
Yeah.
In the past, your guidance had always been 6%-9% because of the Labuan IBFC incentive.
Yeah.
Why has it increased to 10%-15% now?
Because as you see, as the product spread gets higher, more revenues and more spread are being taxed under the GIFT incentive in Labuan. But under the softer spread environment, the proportion will be less, right, will be taxed at Labuan. So in term of ratio, that will bring the effective tax rate down. I think you can also look at our 2020 to 2020 quarter results. For the full four quarters, you will see our effective tax rates are higher compared to the normal 6%-10%.
So, you're saying that as the spread increases, the ETR increases?
No, the other, the other way around. As the spread increases, the ETR reduces.
Okay. So-
The Labuan portion becomes bigger.
Becomes bigger.
The non-Labuan portion is smaller.
Smaller.
So when the spread reduces, the Labuan pie of the Labuan portion is smaller comparatively-
Oh.
To the rest of the tax regime that we have.
Yes. Because the other Labuan taxpayers, the other non-Labuan resident company, they're paying at 24%, and then versus Labuan is 3, 3%. So in term of ratio, it's about PI. Once we have lesser spread recorded at Labuan, then that's why the ETR higher.
I see. I see. Okay. And this BRB accrual, this is regarding the special payment that you made?
Yeah.
Was it made this year or last year? I can't remember.
We made it this year.
For me, this year.
We paid it. If you look at our Bursa announcement in April, it was announced in April, paid in May.
Okay, okay. There was one payment last year as well, was it?
Uh, no.
No. Okay, sure. All right. Okay, that's it. Yeah, thanks.
Thank you, Raymond.
Ahmad, please proceed.
Hi, this is Bineet. I'll... So Ahmad is not able to connect, I think, so I'll ask on his behalf.
All right. Okay.
Okay. So first question is: So has Perstorp India already commenced operations?
It is in the process of starting up. We target commercial operation in quarter one, Bineet.
Yeah. Okay. Have we signed any new customers for the new plant, for the Perstorp India plant?
Uh-
Okay, I'll let Dr. Debbie answer that, Bineet.
Okay. Yes, there are some pre-marketing has been done, but mainly this is with the Sayakha coming up, we couple good things. One is we will use Sayakha to supply APAC region, because in the past, we have to ship the product from Europe to APAC. So this is gonna help us to manage much better supply chain. And also with the the excessive the the volume that we have done meaning the pre-trial, pre-marketing with the customers. So yes, there are some new customers has been aligned.
So it is in the pro-- phase of what you call this, qualification-
Qualification
... with the customer currently, Bineet.
Yep.
So we hope to turn that qualification into-
Sales
- sales and contract long-term after this.
Yep.
Okay. Okay, got it. Is there any update on the outcome of the Ethane price negotiation that has been ongoing?
Bineet, I'm not sure whether you managed to catch another Bursa announcement that we made today. So based on that Bursa announcement, we're happy to announce that another one-year extension has been granted. So the ethane and propane contract will be extended for another year under the same terms and conditions.
Okay.
So it will expire in 31st December 2024.
Okay, and one more question on the CapEx of the, the plant that you announced, the plastic recycling plant. So what is the CapEx, approximately?
We don't typically announce the CapEx, Bineet.
Okay.
But it will be... It's around $150 million. But I cannot give you an exact amount.
Okay. And lastly, on the losses from the PIC. So what contributed to the halving of the losses? Is it mainly due to higher volume or due to the higher prices, Q and Q?
It's a mixture of better spread as well as volume. But I would say, like I mentioned earlier, the one that helped is basically the Forex gain from the favorable movement of dollar against the ringgit.
Okay. Thank you so much. So that's all I had. Thank you.
Thank you, Bineet.
Next, we have Desmond. Desmond, please go ahead.
Hey, hi, guys.
Go ahead, Desmond.
Hi, management, can you-
Yes, Desmond.
Right, right. So I basically questions. So the first one: May I know the CapEx for the new ones, as we expect start-up timing? What is the sales and EBITDA presentation? And then this is the-
Desmond, you're breaking up. Can you repeat that question again, the first question?
Sure. Can you hear me now?
Yes. It's much clearer now.
Okay, right. So, I have two questions, basically. The first question is related to, what is the need for the Labuan plants, and what is start-up time, and then what is, what's EBITDA?
I'm sorry. It seems like you need to repeat that again. We are still hearing breaking sounds from you.
Can you hear?
Hello, Desmond?
Can you hear me now?
Okay. Let's try it one more time.
Hey, hi. Can you-
... Hi, can you-
Still, you're still breaking up, Desmond. I'm not sure my, our, our line or it's your line.
Hi. Hi.
Nope, you're still breaking up, Desmond.
Thanks. We'll move to Ho Meng.
Hi. I just wanted to ask, more of a long-term question. You know, we are seeing that, you know, with national security reasons happening, you know, on the long term, you know, I think the perception is that China is moving towards self-sufficiency. And, you know, China used, I mean, you know, it used to be a big export market for a lot of chemical players around the world. But, you know, moving forward, if they are moving towards self-sufficiency, then the export markets, for, you know, for the major chemical players in this region especially, will have to change.
Then there's also the issue of, you know, the breakeven cost is also changing as well, because you will have to compete with, you know, the Middle East and the U.S. producers. So, you know, what is your feeling in terms of the long-term positioning? Do you foresee that you will need to grow more, you know, specialty chemicals to embrace the structural shift that is coming? Yeah.
Yeah, I think, Ho Meng, your observation is true. I think the expectation is the trade flow may change slightly, China is going to be more self-sufficient. So that means, players who are playing in China, previously, has to either have presence in China or have to find new market. I think for PCG, China, though it is important, it's not a big market. It is, what? 15%, lower than 50, about around 10% of our market. We are focusing specifically on and maybe, you know, growing a little bit more here rather than China. I think that's just one thing. Secondly, I think the reason why we pivoting to specialty is for that basic reason, and with specialty, that is where we envisage our growth is going to be.
With Perstorp, especially now, we have presence in China, so we will be defending our market in that perspective. And also see when China's be self-sufficient, we already have presence, especially Europe, for specialty and America, North America specifically. Those are areas that we are focusing in addition to APAC for us. Okay, Ho Meng.
Hello. Yeah, sorry. Yeah, just by, you know, in your comment on the European markets, right, and the U.S. markets, but then, you, the, you know, the super majors of, of the Middle East and also the, on the, the American markets are, I mean, just the chemical producers will also have, will also establish a presence there because their own cost position will also, become more competitive over time. So I guess, I guess obviously, the Southeast Asian market will still be your core market, but, do you see more intensifying competition, as assuming if the China market size is, will, will fall over time, are you able to capture a larger slice of the Southeast Asia market to compensate for that?
Definitely, definitely, competition will be higher. But when I talk about Europe and North America, it's mostly on the specialty side, which we already have.
All right.
So, that on commodity side, our focus remains out in our backyard, Ho Meng.
Mm-hmm.
We are strengthening our marketing offices in Southeast Asia. We have now marketing offices in Indonesia, Thailand, and hopefully, we will strengthen our presence more in Philippines and Vietnam soon, in preparation for, you know, increasing competition and for us to penetrate the market better.
I see. Okay, all right. Thank you. That's all I have.
Thank you, Ho Meng.
We still have Desmond and Azli, who wanted to ask questions, but I think we are facing some technical glitches, so please-
Hi, can you hear me?
Yes, Desmond.
Yes.
But not... Maybe not most as we would like to hear you. But please try again.
Sure, sure. Thank you. So, I have two questions. The first question is related to the CapEx. So what is the CapEx needed for the new pyrolysis plant? And then what is the expected startup timing? What is the annual sales and EBITDA expectation, EBITDA margin expectation? And then the second question is related to the pre-operating expenses booked in Q3, related to the Pengerang complex. Do we see similar amount in Q4? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Desmond. On the first question, like I mentioned earlier, we do not give the total project cost for the advanced recycling plant in Pengerang, but I guided earlier just now that the project cost was around $150 million. And as what you see, has mentioned earlier, and as per disclosed in our analyst briefing deck, we anticipate the operation of the project will be in 2026. So for your second question, with regards to Pengerang on the pre-operating expenses, we still have negative EBITDA for the quarter three for Pengerang, but the, the amount, I'm sorry, I cannot disclose that at the moment, but it was 50% lower compared to quarter two.
Thank you. Thank you for the answer. Sorry, I might have missed the previous answers, so but it's all good now. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Desmond.
Bineet? Okay.
Good. Thank you.
Thank you, Bineet.
Thank you. So we have come to the end of the analyst briefing. Thank you all for your participation. Please reach out to us via email should you have any follow-up questions. Thank you again for joining us. Good evening.
Thank you.
Thank you.