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Status Update

Sep 14, 2020

Speaker 1

Hello, and welcome, everybody. I'm Dev Sanyal, Executive Vice President for Gas and Low Carbon Energy. Thank you for joining us on our 2nd day of presentations. Yesterday, you heard about BP's 2020 energy outlook and our new sustainability frame along with our plans to reinvent BP. Today, we are looking more clearly at our 3 by 3 strategy.

Carol and William will talk about our plans for integrating energy systems and partnering with countries, cities and industries, while Emma will discuss convenience and mobility, one of our three focus areas. Before that, I'll talk about our low carbon electricity and energy businesses and how we support the delivery of BP's ambition. I know there are a number of questions about our low carbon businesses. I will address 4 of these during my presentation today. Why BP?

What is our renewables pipeline? What are expected returns? And finally, can we execute? Before we look at the opportunity ahead of us and why I'm excited about this, I'd like to make a point on safety. Safety is our core value and is integral to how we see the development of our businesses.

Over the past few years, we've seen a marked improvement in the safety performance of all of our renewable businesses. Central to this has been our operating management system, which has built off decades of operating experience in our traditional businesses. However, as ever, there's always more to do, and we will do so. We outlined our core beliefs on the 4th August. For low carbon energy, these translate into the following.

Firstly, electrification is accelerating. Driven by falling costs, renewables are likely to provide the vast majority of this growth. Wind and solar are already the most competitive new builds in most energy markets. This includes fossil fuel markets. The global average cost for PV solar have decreased by 90% and onshore wind by 60% over the past decade.

We see these trends continuing with further cost reductions of 30% to 40% over the next decade. And with falling costs comes real growth. Renewables have become the fastest growing source of energy and we see this continuing over the next decade and beyond. We are leading in and planning to build material renewables businesses with an ambition to have developed 50 gigawatts by 2,030. Secondly, with the growth of renewables, there is no longer one dominant source of energy.

We see a world in which there is convergence of different forms of energy. This creates the opportunity to combine multiple sources of energy and provide firm energy. As a company with interest in multiple source energy, we are uniquely positioned to do so. For example, gas with renewables, solar with biopar, etcetera. Thirdly, we see opportunities for differentiated customer offers.

This includes mobility and digital solutions. We see a growing customer demand for clean, affordable energy across both OECD and non OECD markets. For instance, in 2019, almost 20 gigawatts of renewable corporate PPAs were signed globally, an almost 4 fold increase since 2015. This is now an increasingly global trend driven by price and choice. Governments are also setting increasingly ambitious targets for renewables.

For example, the U. K. Has set a target of 40 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2,030. In the United States, New York and Massachusetts are targeting 70% 100% renewable capacity by 2,030 and 2,045 respectively. This is the reason we believe in becoming a company that provides integrated low carbon energy solutions for our customers, bringing together different forms of energy to give the world what it wants, clean, affordable and firm energy, an integrated energy company.

Let me now turn to the first question of why BP and answer this through affluences. First, we have global reach. We are present in over 70 countries and this enables access to new markets. For instance, in just 2 years since joining forces with BP, LightSource BP has more than doubled its global footprint. 2nd, as Gordon will discuss, our projects organization is ranked top quartile by IPA Industry Project Benchmarks in 4 out of 5 input metrics.

Project execution is key as we build out our new projects. This includes our recent announcement of an agreement to form a strategic partnership in offshore wind energy with Equinor in the United States. One example is a repowering of Flatridge 1 wind energy asset. This complex project was completed with no safety incidents ahead of schedule and under budget. This was due to leveraging processes and experience learned from our projects organization.

3rd, our long established operating management system enables a focus on operating excellence. This has driven availability above 95% in our wind and bioenergy businesses. Availability is core to profitability, and we believe our performance benchmarks strongly. 4th, we're also one of world's top energy traders. We trade 2 50 terawatt hours of electricity across United States, Europe and Brazil.

This gives us access to differentiated expertise, risk management and the ability to trade in merchant markets. Our trading business is already creating power offtake and risk management options for our own renewables businesses and for third parties. Carole will discuss this in more detail. 5th, we have a history of creating mutually beneficial partnerships. We want to do more.

We are building new and deeper relationships with governments, cities and corporate customers at a scale that is difficult for others to replicate. For example, in India, our presence built through our gas position enhanced the ability of LightSource BP's joint venture, Eversource, to compete and win the mandate to manage the Green Growth Equity Fund. This fund aims to grow to $1,000,000,000 backed by the Indian government, the U. K. Government, private equity as well as other investors.

Its purpose is to grow sustainable energy infrastructure in the world's fastest growing energy market. Finally, we are present across the energy value chain. We have the ability to bring together multiple energy solutions for our customers in one place. As an example, as part of our recent deal with Amazon, we will supply renewable power from solar and wind to their data centers. William will talk more about this later today.

I hope this helps describe why we believe we have a clear role to play. These trends are core to our strategy and make us different from pure renewable players as well as utilities. The combination of these trends gives us conviction that we can be a leading low carbon electricity and energy business. We are not starting from scratch. Today, we have a strong set of established businesses, which provide a solid and growing foundation for future.

Let me run through them. LightSource BP, one of Europe's leading solar developers. In 18 months since joining with BP, the development pipeline grew by more than 500 percent from 1.6 gigawatts to 9.8 gigawatts. Since then, it's increased further to around 16 gigawatts. In the beginning of 2018, LightSource BP was present in 5 countries.

Since then, it has entered Australia, Brazil, Egypt, Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago and the United States, where its activities have grown from 0 to 20 states in just 2 years. B. E. Wind Energy is a business we have built over a decade. We now operate a 1.7 gigawatt gross portfolio across 10 wind assets in the United States.

We have hydrated our portfolio by focusing on high margin regions and have divested 800 megawatts. Since the middle of the decade, we've increased EBITDA per megawatt hour by 60%, an example of value over volume. BP Bunge is one of the world's largest bioenergy companies. We have combined scale with innovative technology. Our Smart Log system, which is a digital logistics management system, has delivered a 25% increase in efficiency across 32,000,000 tons of industrial capacity.

Last year, BP Biofuels industrial availability was 97%. Integrated with BP Bunge is its biopower business generated at its industrial sites. Last year, BP Biofuels exported around 70% of its production to the grid. This year, we expect BP Bongate to export 1.2 terawatt hours. In biogas, we are the largest renewable gas supplier to the heavy duty transport sector in the United States through our joint venture with Aria Energy, which supplies around 120,000,000 gallons of diesel equivalent in this fast growing market.

And finally, last week, we announced our intent to form a strategic partnership in offshore wind energy with Equinor, which is focused in the United States, one of the world's fastest growing offshore wind markets. We plan to grow our participation in offshore wind energy internationally. We are also building new businesses that offer the potential for distinctive growth beyond 2,030 such as green and blue hydrogen, a business that builds off our renewables and gas businesses. Let me show you a short video of what we have today. As I hope that shows you, we are already in action.

Our foundations give us conviction that we can become a leading global player in low carbon electricity and energy. What does that look like? As Julia laid out on the 4th August, our aims are as follows. Firstly, in low carbon energy, we intend to build material renewable energy businesses by developing 20 gigawatts by 202550 gigawatts by the end of the decade. By leveraging our trading and customer facing capabilities, we aim to deliver 3 50 terawatt hours of trading activity by 2025 and 500 terawatt hours by 2,030.

Secondly, we aim to grow our integrated gas position, building on our equity gas resources with our LNG portfolio and our marketing capability. We aim to grow our LNG portfolio to 25,000,000 tonnes per annum by 2025 and to more than 30,000,000 tonnes per annum by 2,030. Thirdly, we aim to grow our bioenergy businesses and deliver low carbon solutions for customers in aviation, marine and heavy duty transportation. We plan to scale our BP Boonge joint venture and grow our biogas and bioget businesses. We intend doubling our bioenergy production in the next 5 years to further double it in the following 5 years to the end of the decade.

And fourthly, in hydrogen CCUS, we aim to create a distinctive position with a 10% share of hydrogen in core markets. Finally, low carbon electricity and energy plays a key role in meeting our aim 3. Our solutions are expected to contribute to the 15% reduction in the carbon intensity of our market products we are aiming to achieve by 2,030. Let me now talk about each in turn, starting with the biggest area that of low carbon electricity. It's important to put our growth aspirations in context as I know many have said it seems aggressive.

In reality, this is a massively expanding market. Renewables have the potential to grow threefold and to account for 45% of global park capacity by 2,030. In that scenario, from 1400 gigawatts today, the world would see an additional 3,200 gigawatts of new solar, wind and biopar by 2,030. Even in Spencer's business as usual scenario, this number is 2,070 gigawatts. In essence, this is a story of economic growth powered by access to electricity and the scale of this potential marketplace growth gives us confidence in our low carbon electricity ambition.

So having established that there is a growing marketplace, do we have a development pipeline? By the end of last year, we had developed around 2.5 gigawatts net across our businesses. We see further growth in each of our wind, solar and biopower businesses. Our agreement with Equinor to form a strategic partnership will give us a new and growing platform for growth in renewable electricity with offshore wind energy. These businesses have a robust pipeline of projects spread across 13 different countries, around 20 gigawatts growth of identified projects.

We see a combination of organic growth and infill acquisitions of very early stage development pipeline. These will be from developers that do not have the capability to finance or develop the assets. We will enhance this pipeline through integration with our other businesses. This might be a city or a corporate trying to access renewable power solutions. William will speak about this later.

Let me now share some detail regarding the development pipeline. Starting with solar, where it's possible to move from concept to construction in just 18 months to 2 years. This sector is characterized by fast cycle times, which allows to grow our pipeline rapidly in the next 5 years. Projects in our solar pipeline include Bighorn Solar, supplying 300 Megawatts to the Evraz Steel Company in Colorado, the single largest customer solar project in the United States. The 260 Megawatt Impact Solar Project in Texas where BP is offtaking 100 percent of the generation.

LightForce BP are building Spain's 1st subsidy free project in Zaragoza. This is a 2 50 Megawatt project and this project uses new bifacial technology. In 2019, Luxor's BP acquired a 2 gigawatt pipeline from NLIFE in Brazil and has already converted a part of this pipeline by winning a 200 megawatt tender in the Northeastern state of Sierra. In Australia, LightSource BP have a 500 Megawatt integrated solar project, one of the largest bifacial projects in the country. And in India, the Green Growth Equity Fund, which LightSource BP's joint venture, Eversource manages and in which we have approved a direct investment in shareholding, has invested in IANA Renewables.

They are currently constructing 500 megawatts of solar. Beyond solar, our pipeline also includes offshore wind energy, including our recent agreement to form a strategic partnership with Equinor in the United States with an initial 4.4 gigawatts of gross generating capacity. We also intend to grow further internationally. Finally, in addition to our identified projects, we are also currently evaluating a further 21 gigawatts of early stage options. This includes a number of onshore wind opportunities that we are pursuing building off our U.

S. Position. In summary, we believe we have a high quality development pipeline in attractive markets. We also have a number of growth options. This gives us confidence to underpin the aim of developing 20 gigawatts by 2025 and 50 gigawatts by the end of the decade.

And all of this will be executed within our disciplined financial framework. We will not compromise returns to deliver those aims as some of the action. We will not pursue a volume of a value strategy. We have learned that lesson. Let me spend a few minutes describing last week's announcement.

This is a great example of how strategic partnerships can allow us to grow in our business. We are investing in the fastest growing energy segment where a 6 fold global growth is forecast to 200 gigawatts by 2,030. This growth is driven by abundant resources, supportive regulation and significant improvements in cost, technology and performance. Similar to our onshore wind and solar businesses, we anticipate the strong technology and performance improvement trends will continue. Driven by more efficient turbines, improved operating performance and the application of digital technology.

Equinor are an excellent partner and a proven leader in offshore wind energy. They have a demonstrated track record in safety. They have deep experience in development and in operations. They are also leaders in next generation offshore wind technology. We believe we can leverage the capabilities with our own U.

S. And global offshore projects and power markets expertise. We share a cultural and strategic fit. The partnership plans to jointly develop up to 4.4 gigawatts across 2 leases divided into 4 offshore wind projects in the United States, Empire Wind 12 and Beacon 12. These projects will, when complete, supply into the growing U.

S. East Coast electricity markets. As I've already mentioned, key states on the East Coast have either set or are considering ambitious renewable targets. Beyond these initial four projects, the potable plan to participate in future developments in the United States. It also has a potential to grow globally in the future.

This marks an exciting new chapter for us, an entry into a new business with a world class partner. This investment is expected to deliver returns in line with our investment process outlined by Murray on August 4. I will return to this. A few moments next on solar. Luxor's BP is what I call an execution powerhouse.

This is a good example of our ability to develop our pipeline at pace. Let me introduce you now to 2 colleagues from Light Source BP. They have a tremendous track record of delivering innovative, fast paced renewable project developments. Karim Butuna is a Co Founder of LightSource BP and was a Group COO prior to being appointed CEO for Europe and Asia. Before joining LightSource, she was in Silicon Valley, growing tech startups.

Emily Buckley is LightSource BP's Strategy Manager. Last year, she was featured on the Forbes 30 Under 30 list.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Dev, and hello, everyone. I will describe what it takes to win as the global solar developer. Emilie will then describe how this comes to life. Our partnership with BP started in January 2018, and has demonstrated the power of bringing together complementary capabilities. LightSource is a focused solar developer, and BP has the global reach, operational expertise, trading capability and financial strength to accelerate our growth.

Together, we want to transform from a leading European developer to a global force in solar. In the 2.5 years of our partnership with BP, we have more than doubled our presence globally, from 5 countries to 13. As you've heard from Dev, we have grown our pipeline from 1.6 Gigawatt in 2018 to 16 Gigawatts today. Our business model is all about execution, execution, execution. And the 5 key ingredients are targeted origination, decisions at speed, financing, cut and get tech and talent.

Let me give you a bit more context. Our experience of 10 years in solar development and our global reach allow us to assess opportunities and make decisions quickly. This ability to move fast give us the advantage. And our investment committee runs weekly to review at least 3 potential deals. A great example of our speed was a recent solar auction in Brazil, where the time between our decision to participate and us winning was just 2 short weeks.

We are a solar business with financing at our core, and we have constantly innovated with financing models, raising debt at rapid levels, enabling us to scale. Cutting edge tech also plays a key role in optimizing our projects. We are an early adopter of new technology, and here are some examples. We started migrating all our plants design to bifacial technology in 2020, after successful pilots in 2018, driving enhanced energy yield. We were the 1st in the U.

K. To deploy reactive power technology, providing energy services from our solar plant at night. We are exploring green hydrogen opportunities in tandem with BP in Australia. Finally, but most importantly, all this is made possible by our people. We have always been investors in people.

We have built a diverse and agile team representing 32 nationalities. They are dedicated to the success of our business. Our culture is open and enabling. Anyone with an idea can pitch to the investment committee. This inspire out of the box thinking and talent retention.

I hope I have given you some good insight into why Light Source BP is very well positioned to capitalize on the huge global opportunity for solar. I will now hand over to Emilie to talk about a specific project.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Corinne. Here is a real example of how Light Source BP executes, Project Bighorn Solar Powered Steel in Colorado. Bighorn is a 300 megawatt solar facility, which will soon provide power through the local utility to steel producer, EVRAZ, at their plant in Pueblo, Colorado. The economics of solar energy and its budget certainty is helping the steel mill retain its 1,000 local workers, remain in Pueblo and expand their operations. Project Bighorn is complex involving a $250,000,000 investment from Light Source BP and our partners, over 700,000 bifacial panels and the creation of over 300 local construction jobs.

We won the power contract for Bighorn in a competitive auction due to our strong track record of moving quickly and executing effectively. We reached financial close less than a year after winning the bid. The project is now entering construction and due to come online in 2021. Project Bighorn is just one example of what Lights SVP and Solar have to offer. I'm personally really proud to work for business that is not only driving decarbonization, but also empowering local economic growth at the same time.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Emily and Karim. Next to returns. We should acknowledge that while the quantum of return matters, so too does the quality. Let me address quality first. Today, the renewables market is dominated by power purchase agreements or PPAs.

Normally, PPAs have offtake contracts lasting for more than 20 years. In the past, PPAs are mostly with governments and utilities. We are now seeing a growing trend for corporate PPAs. PPAs provide a key source of stable, large de risk cash flows and returns. The stability of PPAs currently underpins access to 3rd party source of finance and allows us to efficiently build scale.

You've heard how this works from our light source BP colleagues. Over time, we see this evolving with increased merchant exposure. This plays to our strengths and we will embrace this evolution just as we have in natural gas where markets have also evolved from long term contracts. As the largest power trader in the United States, along with a growing portfolio globally, we see value in this merchant exposure for BP. Through our trading business, we have the ability to market the uncontracted merchant exposure or become the power of taker.

We have the expertise, track record and capacity to manage and optimize volatility and risk. This is a competitive advantage and a source of differentiation versus pure play companies. Today, our renewables businesses provide stable returns. And as the market evolves, as an integrated energy company, we are positioned to capture growing returns. And having addressed quality, let me now address Quantum.

We are confident that we can enhance base unlevered project returns of 5% to 6% to at least 8% to 10%. We are already seeing a track record of delivering these returns. For example, in Light Source BP, we are seeing project returns towards the higher end of this range. There are 3 sources of value. Firstly, the deployment of our operational and projects expertise to build and operate high performing assets.

As I previously explained, our top quartile project execution is enabling us to build new assets. Our operating management system and the sharing of our operating capabilities is enabling us to ensure they're safe, reliable and efficiently managed. For instance, OMS has helped us improve our availability by around 2% in our onshore wind business. Certainly, it is driven by the integration of multi energy customer offers, trading and digital, which we as an IAC can achieve. This is about providing customers with clean, firm and affordable energy to the combination of gas and renewables, for example.

Integration is also about trading where we can be the off taker for renewable projects. As markets evolve, we are well positioned to manage and optimize merchant price risk. Carol will speak about this later. As David Rose explained, we are digitizing BP, An example of a digital technology that is creating benefits in our renewables business is Onyx Insights, a company within BP Launchpad. They've developed advanced predictive maintenance solutions that we deploy into our U.

S. Wind business. This provides us access to on time reliability, enabling full detection 12 to 18 months before failure. This reduces downtime and maintenance costs. We believe this integration can achieve up to 2% additional returns.

Thirdly, it is also driven by the use of efficient structured financing, including access to low cost source of funds. This frees equity capital to invest in further growth. These three sources of value underpin our confidence in achieving 8% to 10% returns which are stable and competitive. We have optionality to achieve further returns uplifts. This is based upon a decision as to whether we farm down our interest in the portfolio or retain the asset within our portfolio.

We may choose to do this at or after financial close. We have a choice whether we drive further growth or return cash to BP. We aim to have developed 50 gigawatts to finance close, but the amount we own and operate may vary. We will manage our growth within a disciplined financial framework. As I said earlier, the investment returns are driven by our focus on value.

As I said at the start, we believe that there will be a convergence of energy sources. This is why we are not participating in renewables for renewables sake. We are growing that business so that we can combine it with gas, bioenergy and hydrogen to give customers what they want. By integrating them, we believe that we can access different customers and drive value. Turning first to gas.

Whilst the world is short on firm, global power, it has abundant natural gas. Gas is an important role to play in the energy transition. By partnering with renewables, it provides cleaner, firm and affordable energy. Gas in the form of hydrogen can also be a decarbonized field. Because of this, natural gas will continue to play a central role in our business.

It also remains a resilient source of operating cash that will fuel our transition. Firstly, we have positions in equity gas with approximately 120,000,000,000,000 cubic feet net discovered resources. I will talk more about these resource positions tomorrow with Gordon. Secondly, we have significant origination and trading capabilities in both pipe gas and LNG. We're the largest natural gas market in North America and we currently have an international LNG portfolio of 15,000,000 tonnes per annum.

Carol will describe these in our session later. Thirdly, we see value in integrating our equity and LNG positions with downstream markets. Our integrated gas and power business seeks to extend presence along and across value chains, building access to customers. This represents a pivot from our traditional strategy where the business has been resource led. This is where I want to focus on today.

Extending our presence to customers will increase the resilience of our portfolio and will enable us to capture incremental margins. We have seen margin uplifts ranging from $0.2 to $2.5 an MMBtu depending on the market. We will capture downstream customers through accessing infrastructure, extending our presence into high growth markets and from growing commercial and industrial offers. I would now like to introduce you to Frederica Barra. She heads our Integrated Gas and Power Business globally.

She recently joined us from ExxonMobil and I'm delighted to have her in my leadership team.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Dev. It is really energizing for me to be joining BP at this time, and I'm excited to play a part in the transition of BP from an IOC to an integrated energy company. I would like to give you 2 examples of where we have accessed infrastructure to enable downstream market participation. Both are example of value chain integration through LNG and moving further downstream in the gas value chain into new domestic markets. Firstly, with our partners, we are developing the largest gas to power projects in Latin America at the Port of Arsu.

The 3 gigawatts of installed capacity is expected to provide energy for up to 14,000,000 households. We're also developing an LNG rigas terminal there with capacity of 7,500,000 tonnes per annum. The supply will come within our LNG trading portfolio. This gives us great and probably unique flexibility to dispatch a short notice to the grid. 1.3 gigawatts of the power capacity is expected to be online in mid-twenty 21.

Within the Port of Basu, we have the ability to develop an additional 2 power plants, which can be combined with renewable power. This will create further demand for LNG. Strategically, this project also underpins the port's ability to create a domestic gas and power hub capable of receiving LNG and future offshore gas resources. We see potential beyond the 1st gas natural Azu project. Another example is Guangdong Dapeng LNG.

We were the 1st international company in China to build a presence in rigorous infrastructure through this terminal. Since 2006, the Guangdong terminal has been expanded, including optimizations, to allow processing of more than 8,000,000 tonnes per annum of LNG in 2020. Through this facility, we are leveraging our access to equity LNG from North West Shelf and our trading portfolio. We have recently announced 2 gas sales agreement with Ianannum for an energy to deliver 600,000 tons per annum starting from 2021. This makes us the 1st foreign energy company to sell regasified LNG and directly supply gas to customers in China.

We will take our learnings from Guangdong Dafreng LNG to expand our energy value chain in China. This includes participating in new Vriggas infrastructure and creating a marketing business in other premium and energy markets. These two examples illustrate how we're able to beat attractive and integrated customers. We intend to continue to grow and expand this offer in other high growth markets in the future. Back to you, Dev.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Ferri, for your leadership and the focus you're bringing to this space. I will now turn to another growing business, bioenergy. We see bioenergy playing a significant role in providing low and 0 carbon solutions for liquid ground fields. Over time, it also provides solutions for hard to decarbonize sectors such as aviation, marine and heavy goods vehicles. In 2,030, our rapid transition scenario sees growth of around an additional 2,000,000 barrels a day of biofuels demand.

This is getting towards double current demand of 2,600,000 barrels a day. The share of biofuels in the total liquid transportation fuel segment grows from 6% today to 11% by 2,030. There is no single pathway to meet this demand. It will require a range of technologies across a range of feedstocks. We already have an established biofuels business through our BP Bune joint venture in Brazil.

We also have biogas in North America and refinery, crow processing across our portfolio. We see these businesses generating returns of around 15% or higher. It competes well within our disciplined financial framework. Our intent is to quadruple this area by the end of this decade. Our focus will be on differentiating and growing options across 4 businesses.

Biofuels and Biopower, where through BP Boonge, we will look for the potential to scale up the businesses further in a market that is fast consolidating. In biogas, we intend to build our current U. S. Position. We're exploring options with Emma's business to expand into new markets in heavy duty transport.

In Bioget, we are the leading marketer of sustainable aviation fuel with supply at 11 airports in 4 countries. We see opportunities in leveraging technologies such as fissure drops to convert municipal salt waste to biojet. We intend marketing 20% of the world's biojet by 2,030. And finally, in refinery co processing, we are focusing on capital light sustainable feedstocks to produce biodiesel and biojet. We currently process 6,000 barrels a day across 5 refineries.

Gordon will speak on this tomorrow. Turning to hydrogen. We see hydrogen having a key role to play in the decarbonization of power, industry and transport. Hydrogen complements our existing businesses and capabilities. Green hydrogen is an adjacency to the growth of renewables and blue hydrogen is enabled by the scale up of carbon capture use and storage or CCUS.

The growth of this market will depend upon supportive policy, technology growth and customer choice. We will also build new partnerships in the space. For example, net 0 T side and we are investing in new technologies such as ccapture, Solidia and Carbon Free. Our aim is to build positions in both green and blue hydrogen in the U. S, U.

K, Europe, China as well as Australia. To achieve this, we are accessing the following new segments: Industry, including the decarbonization of our own refineries. We have a partnership with Get H2 in Lingan and are also participating in a project to support the decarbonization of the Port of Rotterdam. In the power sector, we see potential to decarbonize gas through CCUS. In future, this can provide a clean, dispatchable energy to firm renewables.

Net 0 T side offers the potential to establish a clean energy industrial cluster, a first in the world and includes opportunities to integrate hydrogen with power, industry and transport. And finally, in the transport sector, we plan to participate in hydrogen refueling targeting the heavy duty truck segment. Hydrogen could achieve nearly 20% of final energy consumption by 2,050. It represents the next phase of low carbon and growth. By building on our low carbon businesses as well as our existing capabilities, we plan to capture a 10% share of hydrogen in core markets by 2,030.

Now, I'd like to share a short video about the net zero TSAT project that we operate on behalf of our partners.

Speaker 5

Teesside's industrial heritage goes back not just decades but centuries to iron making and steel making and more recently as Europe's 1st integrated modern chemical plant. We are the 2nd largest carbon emitting region in the country, and that means unless we reduce our carbon footprint in a measured and sensible way, we could see the loss of many, many hundreds, if not thousands, of jobs.

Speaker 6

The net zero T side project side project will impact the U. K. Because it's the first of a kind industrial cluster, the first time anywhere on the globe that we'll be able to say we have a 0 carbon production industrial cluster.

Speaker 7

T Cellite is a fantastic place to decarbonize the industry. It's relatively compact. It's near range of offshore stores. In addition to that, there's a very proud industrial heritage in Teesside. And it would be great to revitalize the economy here by taking it back to where the industry first started and learning how to do low carbon industry.

Speaker 8

Being a part of the net zero T side project to me means being part of the solution towards climate change, particularly industry decarbonization and also decarbonized power.

Speaker 5

To make Teesside the center of a world leading project like this would mean it would create new jobs, it would protect existing jobs and it would create a platform for new and innovative technologies in the 21st century not seen in this area for many decades.

Speaker 1

Now let me turn to the 4th question. Are we capable of executing on our strategy? We believe we have developed a track record in our low carbon businesses. However, we have more to do. We will deliver our strategy by focusing on industrialization, innovation and integration.

Let me explain what I mean by this. Industrialization where we will deploy our top quartile project engineering, supply chain and execution capabilities across our businesses to build scale. You heard yesterday from Kerry about Louise Jacobson Ploth, who has 20 years experience in engineering roles. Louise now sits on my leadership team and runs our Hydrogen and CCS business globally. She brings our expertise in improving reliability and driving efficiency to this new business.

We drive innovation and digitization in our businesses. For instance, our data scientists analyze the 600,000,000 data points a day generated from our onshore wind portfolio to unlock opportunities for improving operating efficiency. We are now implementing this across the rest of our portfolio. And finally, a consistent theme, integration. This is about capturing value by optimizing across and along value chains.

As an example, in the United States, our trading organization has created offtake agreements for LightSource BP. This has enabled access to new source of funding and to bring solar projects to financial flows. In summary, we have demonstrated an ability to build and grow new businesses like the ones I've described today. This is something that our partners recognize and the reason they want to work with us. We will build on this as we grow our portfolio and every growth opportunity will be evaluated against our ability to industrialize, innovate and integrate.

This is why we are confident we will be able to deliver the returns I've described within our disciplined financial framework. Very quickly, this slide summarizes where we aim to be in 2025 route to our 2,030 aims. We intend to grow our renewables portfolio to 20 gigawatts by 2025 and to 50 gigawatts by 2,030. In traded electricity, we plan to grow to 3 50 terawatt hours. And by the end of the decade, we intend to double our portfolio compared to 2019.

In LNG, we aim to grow our portfolio by 60% by 2025 and more than double it by 2,030 compared to 2019. And finally, in bioenergy, we plan to more than double the portfolio by 2025 and quadruple it by 2,030 compared to 2019. To conclude, I would like to reiterate 4 key messages. Firstly, this is the fastest growing energy segment and we want to be a leader. Secondly, we are not starting from scratch.

We have a growing portfolio of businesses and a robust pipeline of future projects. Thirdly, we have confidence in our ability to deliver 8% to 10% stable returns underpinning and enhancing value through our capabilities as an IEC. And finally, we have projects, operations and trading capabilities that we will deploy from our existing businesses to help us execute our strategy. I'm energized by the number of people both in BP and externally who are excited about our purpose and want to be a part of our future. We're attracting talent, a high quality cadre of people who want to be a part of the solution.

You've heard from some of these people today. People are at the heart of everything we do and they're helping us build leading businesses that are making a difference to the world. Our people's energy and ingenuity will drive us forward. Thank you very much for listening. I will now hand you over to my colleague, Carol.

Speaker 9

Thank you, Dev. Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. I'm Carol Howell, the Executive Vice President for Trading and Shipping. Today, I'd like to expand on several of the areas that you've heard about from my colleagues and to answer some of the key questions you've raised on our ability and confidence to become a world leading integrated energy company within the next 10 years. The questions I'll cover are: What do we mean by integrating Energy Systems?

How will we do this in BP? What is Trading and Shipping's role as an integrator? What's our track record? And how will we amplify returns for BP through that integration? And where are some of the areas we can generate these increased returns for BP while also supporting the transition to an integrated energy company?

Now you've heard from Bernard and Julia that integration is a key component of our strategy that will differentiate us from our competitors, create end to end solutions for our customers and unlock incremental value for BP. So what do we mean by integration? There are 3 horizontals on the 3x3 structure, and there are 3 distinct capabilities on which we will focus. 1st, digital, driving innovation and leveraging best practices and scale throughout BP. David will talk about this in more detail, and his team are a key enabler of integration and in developing tools for our customer offers.

2nd, partnering with countries, cities and industries to pull together the best of BP and deliver it to customers in the form of integrated multi energy offers, which William will talk about. 3rd, integrating energy systems, which I'll focus on, covering what we mean by integration and how we can amplify returns for BP by integrating along and across the value chain. I'll then turn to trading and shipping and its role in support of BP's objectives. For BP, integration means using our scale, our breadth of expertise and our mix of BP assets and third party relationships to create multiple options for our BP products and services, enabling us to deliver them into the optimal markets at the optimal time. And importantly, we make our final decision based on the best value for BP, not on the individual asset, service or product value.

So how will we do this? 1st, integration along value chains. For example, using our global portfolio and expertise in logistics and risk management, we can integrate our U. S. Food production with our refinery demand in Australia or in Europe, or we can deliver the production to meet our customer needs in China.

2nd, integration across value chains. We don't look along a single value chain only. We also look at integration across multiple products and services and multiple geographies and customers. For example, we couple renewable power supply from wind and solar with gas fired generation to address intermittency and offer customers firm, reliable electricity. And we can offer an offset for the carbon with credits derived from our natural climate solutions portfolio.

And now we have a firm, reliable, low carbon electricity. 3rd, we develop integrated offers for our customers. These can be at the country, city, industry or corporate level. For example, we develop and deliver lower carbon intensity physical products for transportation, coupled with carbon credits to manage the customers' compliance obligations. In BP, we have a long traditional hydrocarbon business, though we are not complacent and are continuously looking for improvement.

And we're leveraging this capability and our technical and trading expertise to extend this integration through our low carbon energy business. Through our global presence in oil, gas and power value chains, including retail, electric vehicle charging, renewables, biofuels, improved production and operations and carbon sequestration, we have the capability to provide multi energy solutions to customers and to generate returns across multiple markets and commodities as the energy complex transitions. And as you heard from Dev, we see significant growth opportunities in our renewable electricity, gas and power and our bioenergy businesses as well as looking at the creation of new businesses such as hydrogen. Before I turn to trading and shipping, our role as an integrator and how Real Amplify returns, I'd like to introduce you to TNS and what we do. I'm proud to be leading an organization with a long history of driving integration across BP and of providing competitive, reliable energy solutions to our customers.

And I'm excited about our role as an integrator and what we can bring to BP. We will be working to connect both along and across the value chains for BP in the most efficient way to the most optimal markets and customers and to structure customer solutions to capture additional value and generate new revenue streams. We do this by working with our colleagues across BP to identify commercial opportunities, develop aligned approaches to new markets, optimize BP's portfolio, structure integrated solutions and manage any associated risk. We use our analytics and digital tools to develop insights into changes in supply and demand at a macro level and a micro level and to optimize our contracts and logistics. We also access 3rd party assets, often through leases or partnerships, to link BP's assets across multiple supply opportunities, customer shorts and geographies.

This creates flexibility and resilience in managing supply and demand disruptions. We then leveraged this access and the range of commodities we supply and trade to improve the value of netbacks for BP and to meet our customers' needs through integrated offers. Our asset light model also enables us to scale in and out of opportunities dynamically, extracting rents across the value chain with shorter payback periods and quicker cash conversion. This is particularly important in the energy transition as value shifts both along and across the value chain. And we've built a deep set of capabilities, which we are confident will translate to new energy commodities in the future.

So why are we confident in our ability to deliver integration value and amplified returns for BP? Because we have a track record of doing this at scale today. And on average, T and S adds up to 2% to BP's overall return on average capital employed, or ROACE. We have experience in developing new products in markets such as our biofuels and low carbon product businesses of accessing new markets to provide optionality for our production and refined products of structuring customer solutions and of managing the risk of a cross commodity global portfolio. By leveraging BP's scale and balance sheet in a capital like manner, our unique capabilities are expected to continue to enhance BP's ROACE as we transition to an integrated energy company.

But I think that the best way to bring this to life is with some examples. We see opportunities for integration and growth across BP, but the first point I want to make is that we expect to continue to deliver incremental returns to our base hydrocarbon business, generating cash to support the transition. For example, we work with our operations teams on finding the most advantaged homes for our production, on accessing the lowest cost feedstocks for our refineries, on our co processing flexibility of biofeedstocks and with our marketers on developing retail and wholesale markets for our products. Through integration with Refining and Marketing in Midstream, we have tripled the value from integration in the past 5 years. And during the peak of COVID, our integration enabled us to optimize BP crude production, refinery requirements and customer demand as one team.

Our refineries were able to run at an average utilization of 70.7%. We have no flow assurance issues with our production, and we access customer shorts across the globe. Our mix of BP and 3rd party positions creates resilience in the portfolio as well as commercial optionality. We will also continue to leverage our infrastructure, capabilities, customers and proactive treasury organization throughout ordinary and extreme market conditions such as Supercontango. And we saw this during the Q2 where the team maximized access to storage to monetize market structure and deliver cash to BP.

But as well as our hydrocarbon business, we will also seek to supercharge our activities in some areas. These won't be the only areas where we provide value for BP, but they are ones where, as the integrator, we will play a key role in helping these new business models win. The 4 areas we'll talk about today are, 1st, we'll scale up our power footprint to support BP's growth in low carbon electricity and delivering new solutions for next generation mobility. 2nd, we'll focus on LNG to support the development of new gas opportunities and to bring integrated gas solutions to customers on a global scale. 3rd, we'll scale the existing biofuels business and capability to support growth and optimization of BP's bioenergy portfolio and increase integration across the value chain.

Finally, we will concentrate on low carbon products and trading. This will build on BP's low and 0 carbon energy offering for customers globally and will support AIM3. Underpinning everything that we do is our focus on safety and compliance, always acting with respect and integrity with our customers and in the market. So starting with power. The significant growth of our power portfolio is at the center of our move to an integrated energy company from an international oil company.

Today, we trade around 2 50 terawatt hours of electricity across the U. S, Europe and Brazil. Over the next decade, we intend to scale up the platform to approximately 500 terawatt hours through expansion into new markets and customers. For example, we are in the process of building our capability in new regions and placed electricity traders into Brazil over the last year. And we will continue to look for integration opportunities across customers and products, regions, cities and solutions and gas and lower carbon energy.

And we'll also use our existing strategic relationships, such as Light Source BP, to ensure that we fully optimize BP's portfolio and investments. For example, we've linked the Light Source BP Impact Solar asset with our BPX Energy assets in West Texas as part of an overall electrification plan, which is expected to reduce electricity costs by around $12,000,000 per annum for BPX Energy. And with Whiting Refinery, we developed a solution to serve their load through the wholesale market, expected to provide savings of around $40,000,000 per year. And as you heard from Dev, we also plan to grow our low carbon electricity activity, and trading and marketing will be a key part of this plan in generating merchant length and customer demand. In the U.

S, our Gas and Power team serve over 100 cities to meet their energy needs. We supply gas, renewable gas. We manage logistics and storage. We optimize a mix of renewable assets to manage intermittency, and we manage the risk for BP and our customers. As an example, we have an agreement to serve a city in Ohio with a population of over 1,000,000 from 2021 through to 2025.

We'll serve the fluctuating load of the city at a fixed price. The estimated supply we expect to serve is nearly 4 terawatt hours. And as part of our growing portfolio, we've executed long term agreements with generation across multiple European countries to create a reliable, renewable electricity portfolio. This plays to both BP's strength, leveraging our risk management and trading capability, whilst also working with Amazon to achieve their world class sustainability and net zero ambitions. These partnerships are fostered in an integrated way with BP's innovation and engineering team and are just the start as we collaborate on further low carbon opportunities.

Over the past 18 months, we've contracted up to 1.5 gigawatts of renewable merchant capacity across the globe. And working with Deb and his team, we will continue to build a flexible portfolio of equity and merchant renewable generation. With Dev and William's teams, we'll leverage our experience, capabilities and customer relationships across BP to develop, structure and monetize our renewable generation capacity. And we'll also look at new markets, such as China and India and other Latin American countries as they deregulate to create new customer demand and to help balance our generation capacity. As we expand the portfolio, TNS will also be able to offer integrated solutions to commercial and industrial customers, incorporating new solutions such as energy management and energy efficiency products and services.

So I'd like to turn to LNG now and our objectives of expanding our balanced LNG portfolio from 15,000,000 tonnes per annum in 2019 to over 30,000,000 tonnes per annum by 2,030. To provide some context, our LNG delivered volumes have already increased by 75 percent from 2017 through to 2019. We'll enable the expansion of the portfolio through a combination of equity led and merchant positions and sales into new and existing markets. This model gives us flexibility in how we optimize across the portfolio, increase value and manage risk. Our equity and contracted merchant projects alone, such as Freeport in the U.

S. At 4,400,000 tonnes per annum and Mozambique at 3,000,000 tonnes per annum, are adding around 12,000,000 tonnes per annum of LNG to our portfolio, showing that we are well on our way to 30,000,000 tonnes per annum by 2,030. The larger portfolio also creates additional value during term disruptions. For example, we were able to create additional value during the height of COVID, leveraging flexibility in our merchant volumes and shipping capacity to optimize our Trinidad offtake. We are also focused on customers, and we have 10,000,000 tonnes per annum of sales across China, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, India, Croatia, Netherlands, Dominican Republic, Spain and Brazil.

In addition, the business has flexible regas positions in the U. K. And Spain. So we'll continue to balance the portfolio with demand, working in partnership with Dev and his team to develop new products and new markets. For example, we offer LNG risk management solutions, including LNG priced to other commodities or indices, such as the sales to Foran Energy and ENN Group, allowing sales of domestic pipeline gas in China on an LNG pricing basis.

And we're also able to develop new hubs together, such as the 3 gigawatt integrated LNG to power project in Porto Azu in Brazil, making it the largest combined cycle gas turbine plant in Latin America. We will also look to develop a carbon neutral LNG offer, bundling physical gas with carbon offsets or other environmental attributes from BP's own low carbon production. We use cutting edge tools to fully optimize the portfolio across purchase and sale contracts, shipping, liquefaction and regasification capacities on an intra day basis. Combining our capabilities and offer across BP means we're able to find the highest value markets for our products. And as market dislocations materialize, we are able to extract further value to increase returns for BP.

Turning now to bioenergy. Biofuels are not new to us, and we have been active in this space for well over 5 years. Since 2015, the value of our Bayer portfolio has more than doubled. We've achieved this by integrating with Gordon and Emma's teams with virtual team structures This integration enables us to optimize our portfolio, This integration enables us to optimize our portfolio, to diversify our supply, to provide the most advantaged feedstock for our refineries, to generate lower carbon intensity products for our customers and to manage our compliance obligations in North America and Europe. The diversity of supply also allows us to manage market disruptions and create greater resilience in the value chain.

For example, we recently purchased soybean oil from Bunge and co processed it at Cherry Point refinery to produce renewable diesel, which we then delivered to our customers in Oregon and California. We also have a partnership with Fat Hoats, a Malaysian company that aggregates used cooking oil from fast food restaurants in Southeast Asia, providing BP with an advantaged feedstock that we can then incorporate into our overall portfolio. And we're also able to achieve economies of scale through our integration, for example, in the supply of ethanol into the BP system in Jacksonville. By contracting 3rd party sales in the region, in addition to BP's own demand, we've been able to reduce average incremental throughput costs for the facility by 25%. Working closely with Emma and Dev's teams, we will continue to integrate equity, 3rd party supply and market access across the globe in renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, BioNaphtha, bio LPG and biogas.

On biogas, we continue to build our portfolio of renewable natural gas feedstocks, including biomass, landfill and animal waste. As a fuel for natural gas vehicles, including heavy duty trucks, renewable natural gas results in around 70% lower greenhouse gas emissions on a lifecycle basis than from equivalent diesel fuel vehicles. And we are already one of the largest suppliers of renewable natural gas to the U. S. Transportation sector through our Mavericks non operated joint venture with ARIA Energy and our supply agreement with Clean Energy Fuels.

In 2019, this agreement delivered renewable natural gas equivalent to around 124,000,000 gallons of diesel. And in June 2020, Mavericks agreed its 1st dairy manure development with 3 farms in the Central Valley of California. The breadth of our portfolio and the capabilities across all of our BP teams also enables the optimization of BP's retail biocompliance obligations, unlocking around $2 to $3 per barrel of value through our deep understanding of market requirements and our world class blending and physical operations. Partnering with Deb and William's teams, we are developing offers to incorporate renewable natural gas into multi energy solutions for cities and municipalities. And when combined with our risk management capability and expertise in power and low carbon trading, we are also able to offer innovative solutions to customers across ground transport, aviation, marine and industrial and commercial sectors, which takes us to low carbon products.

We are well positioned and connected across BP to develop, monetize and optimize our portfolio of low carbon products. We're already an established player in the environmental product space. And over the last 6 years, we've developed one of the largest portfolios of contracted credits of any company in North America, equivalent to 50,000,000 tonnes. Our portfolio, customer access and technical expertise means we're able to generate offers that meet or exceed markets and customer requirements, thereby enabling us to generate higher values. In 2019, we sold 15,000,000 tonnes of carbon offsets in the global markets with the expectation that we will increase volumes through customer offers as demand for these products increases.

For example, through accessing customers and products and trading and shipping customers, we've sold over 30,000,000 tonnes of credits to airlines over the last 7 years as part of their compliance requirements under the European Emission Trading Scheme. And we are working with gas and low carbon energy and production to develop natural gas products, which can be differentiated on the basis of relatively low operational methane emissions, and which we then aim to market through our established and growing customer base in the U. S. And other developing markets. On their own, these products are expected to have greater value as the energy transition progresses, but we can further enhance that value by converting these advantaged products into the highest value carbon product for BP.

And in the next presentation, you'll hear more from William about an opportunity in the U. S. Where similar solutions can be included. Now turning also to Natural Climate Solutions, or NCS. Julia talked to NCS being an and to our emissions reductions and that in the next 10 years, we expect to be able to deliver our BP aims without relying on offsets.

In developing natural climate solutions, we aim to create carbon offsets that are required for regulatory compliance purposes or can be sold to our customers either on a stand alone basis or bundled with other energy products to help them transition to low carbon solutions on a voluntary basis. By 2025, we expect to have access to carbon credits from around 100 NCS projects in our portfolio, including a range of pathways from avoided deforestation, mangrove restoration, improved forestry management and reforestation in a wide range of geographies. In the U. S, we've already started to market a carbon offset natural gas product for customers who require physical natural gas but would also like to offset the carbon impact of the product. Using our global portfolio and scale, we can offer this as a service to smaller customers where it would be cost prohibitive for them to do it on their own.

This can be scaled globally and across the many products we trade to help customer segments. As we scale our offers, we will also work with innovation and engineering to develop digitized customer platforms and interfaces to facilitate this growth at scale. And you'll hear more about this later from David. I'm really excited about the opportunities ahead of us and of the role that trading and shipping can play in contributing to BP Zanes. And these four areas are just some of the places that we are applying our capability to and where we are driving integration on.

So the key messages that I'd like to leave you with are: BP has a valuable role to play in integrating energy systems, and we are doing this today. We see numerous commercial opportunities across the energy complex as disruption to extract value from our current portfolio as well as developing to extract value from our current portfolio as well as developing growth options together. Trading and Shipping has a proven track record of delivering distinctive value of up to 2% ROACE overall to BP. Trading and Shipping has a dynamic portfolio, which doesn't generally call upon BP Capital, allowing us to scale in and out of positions to generate shorter paybacks and to accelerate cash conversion. And we are one of the leading energy trading companies in the world.

Thank you, and I'll now hand over to William.

Speaker 10

Thank you, Carol, and hello, everyone. I'm William Lin, and I lead Region Cities and Solutions. I'm really excited to tell you what we are planning to do in partnering with countries, cities and industries. As you have heard, this area is one of the three sources of differentiation that enables us to achieve our purpose and amplify value to BP. As Spencer said on Monday, the world is changing.

The carbon budget is finite and running out fast. Consumers are demanding change and we are listening and we are reacting. We want to make a material impact on global missions for our customers and for our planet. There is a growing opportunity for us to do so. We announced on August 4, our intent to partner with countries, cities and industries and to focus on 10 to 15 cities and 3 industrial sectors, which are high-tech and consumer products, heavy transport, including aviation, marine and land freight and heavy industries, including cement and steel.

We have created a dedicated team consistent with AIM10 called regions, cities and solutions. This team will leverage relationships and build new partnerships to provide integrated energy and mobility solutions to help cities and industries reduce carbon emissions while creating exciting business opportunities. I want to share 5 key things with you today. Why we see potential in this new area? Where we will focus in terms of markets and why, what we have learned from our potential customers so far, how we will integrate our businesses to bring the best of BP to our customers and why we believe we can do this well, including what we need to develop.

So let's start with cities. Cities are home to half the world's population, but generate 70% of CO2 emissions. And we expect both figures to grow with increased urbanization over time. Cities are critical to the progress of the energy transition. Research suggests that cities have the potential to achieve 40% of the carbon mitigation goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, but it cannot be done alone.

And they can reach their climate goals faster with the help of the private sector. We're seeing cities address this in both a greenfield and a brownfield manner. For example, Indonesia is planning to move their capital from Jakarta to East Kalimantan at a cost of over $30,000,000,000 China is investing heavily in smart city initiatives and creating clean energy industrial parks. New cities such as NEOM in Saudi Arabia will only use renewable energy. And established cities like London are investing heavily in energy efficiency and clean mobility.

However, we're seeing that many cities need support to implement the change. Their challenges range from having ambitions, but needing help with plans or having plans but needing the capabilities to execute them. Looking at corporates, the story is very similar. In recent years, the number of corporates with emissions reduction targets have increased and this trend is expected to continue. Leading corporations are also committing significant capital to deliver their climate goals.

Amazon has a $2,000,000,000 fund to invest in low carbon technologies. Delta Airlines has pledged $1,000,000,000 to become the world's 1st carbon neutral airline and there are many, many more. However, while nearly 80% of major corporates have ambitions for carbon reduction, only about a quarter of them are on track to meet them. The transition to a lower carbon future is incredibly complex. It requires long term financial commitments in an environment where there is regulatory and technical uncertainty and integration of existing and emerging technologies.

This is where we come in. We believe we have a distinctive role to play in energy and mobility decarbonization. We will work with cities and key industries, which include major corporates to help them develop their plans and provide the capabilities to execute them at scale to their benefit and to that of the planet. We are a new organization with an exciting and unique remit. We will continue to establish, manage and nurture relationships with governments, businesses and customers in the countries and regions where we operate.

In many countries, we have been present for many decades and we have a long history of building partnerships and understanding our customers. We have stood up this new team, which is empowered to act in an agile, joined up and customer centric manner. We will identify and deliver integrated energy mobility solutions to help customers decarbonize by bringing together BP's capabilities, products and services and with our partners creating value greater than the sum of its parts. In turn, we intend to create new business opportunities and access new markets that will amplify our returns as we shift our portfolio to meet our ambition and our aims. Let me tell you how and why we chose 10 to 15 cities and 3 industrial sectors.

We're starting with 10 to 15 cities because they represent a sufficiently material opportunity, while enabling us to focus, learn and optimize our business models before scaling up further. These cities will be prioritized based on their own decarbonization goals and relationships we have with them. We'll also look at the scale or potential role of these cities within their regions and their countries in terms of the ability to build adjacent opportunities. In addition to cities as municipalities, we'll look at industrial corridors, areas with dense population of industry effectively creating a crossover between cities and municipality itself but also the corporates and industries that operate within them. On the corporate front, we have prioritized 3 industrial sectors, high-tech and consumer products, heavy transport and heavy industry.

These industries currently have significant carbon emissions to manage and are under pressure to decarbonize and therefore we believe our products and our services can support their energy transition journeys. There are 2 things we'd like to do in this space. Firstly, we want to play a leading role in the macro decarbonization of these industrial sectors. And we know that no one company can do this alone without broad collaboration and commitment. Secondly, within these sectors, we will prioritize corporates based on the scale of emissions, aligned ambitions and the potential for strategic relationships.

There will also be corporates we work with where the relationship is symbiotic. We help them and they also help us. And together, we can work to support others through their energy transition. We acknowledge that we do not have all the answers. That's why we're keen to create new partnerships.

We want to work with companies who have aligned goals and have technologies and capabilities that complement ours. This will enable us to offer a potentially wider range of solutions for what our customers want. And if it makes sense, we may also acquire or develop those capabilities in house. So what do our city and industrial customers want? Energy is key to development, but it needs to be clean, firm and affordable.

Buildings need to operate efficiently, minimizing waste and reusing it or converting it into an energy source. Carbon management can support climate goals through things like natural climate solutions and CCUS. Mobility solutions and clean fuels should be 0 or near 0 emissions. Julia spoke about people as part of our sustainability. Efficient and harmonious cities depend on healthy populations both mentally and physically and populations who have access to sustainable livelihoods with a clean living and working environment, equal access to meet their basic needs and an equal place in society.

All these things contribute to improving people's lives, which is an important part of our purpose. We know that there isn't one single solution to decarbonization, and we believe our customers want help along the energy transition journey that is longer term and more enduring. This transition is also complex. These projects need to be woven together and could sometimes evolve over time as technology advances. And we believe we can help in several ways.

Firstly, by showing up as a single face to the customers in providing a diverse set of products and services across BP. Secondly, by actively managing key strategic relationships and accounts over the long term using our experience and skills and most importantly by managing this complexity for our customers, developing innovative solutions and providing them as a service. This is a new area. While we believe we have a lot to offer in terms of what we can do already, we still have a lot to learn. We're developing our offers and are confident in our capabilities because of our track record of delivering complex energy projects, strong relationships in the regions where we operate and finally our ambition of being a net 0 And if we use a city as an example, we can reimagine what that might look like in the future.

A city is a complex ecosystem with multiple nodes including consumers, businesses and government. Imagine a city in the future that moves on decarbonized transportation, 0 emission buses and trains integrated with autonomous vehicles and enabled through fast charging and hydrogen stations. With buildings that are smart and energy efficient using sensors and AI to optimize its use and lowers costs. That is powered solely by solar, wind and bioenergy, supported by gas fired power to overcome intermittency challenges and optimize through energy storage and trading. That has partnerships with ride hailing companies to decarbonize their fleets with airlines and airports to produce and supply sustainable aviation fuel from municipal waste, where quality of life is enhanced by offsetting any remaining emissions through natural climate solutions.

Increasing the resiliency of the city, improving air quality, enhancing biodiversity and potentially generating revenue through carbon offsets. With hydrogen ready gas infrastructure and a CCUS facility that enables the capture of millions of tons of CO2 per year from industries in the city, enabling decarbonization and industrial growth through green and blue hydrogen. All of this managed through an integrated cross business digital platform with customized user friendly interface. This is by no means a stretch. In fact, many of these products and services are ones we can provide as BP today.

Earlier, Dev talked about renewables, bioenergy, CCUS and hydrogen. Carol just told you about our capability to integrate energy systems. Emma will be on next to speak about EVs, mobility solutions and sustainable aviation fuels. And tomorrow, David will talk about the role of venturing and digital in the reinvented BP. Of course, we can't forget all of this is underpinned by Gordon's team, who have the project execution and operations capabilities.

And as for capabilities that we don't have, as I mentioned before, we'll develop them, acquire them and or select the right partners. As I said before, the energy transition is both massive in scale and complex. We understand complexity or at least we say we know how to deal with it. And importantly, there is value in managing it. Although we're a nascent business, we believe we can add or amplify value for BP.

Firstly, by accessing new markets, cities, industries and corporate customers. This is a business area we haven't tapped into before and could open up many growth opportunities. We believe there is value in our products and services that when bundled together create bespoke end to end solutions for our customers. Our new integrated organizational structure should enable this. And as an integrator, we're set up to do this, the horizontal across the verticals.

We also believe our commercial optimization and risk management capabilities and emerging digital solutions will be an important source of value from adjacencies as we participate in these ecosystems. More importantly and looking at the energy transition longer term, we aspire to play a leading role in the development and operation of new and decarbonized energy systems. We're going to access these value pools by exploring new business models, including advisory to help shape pathways for customers towards net 0, extending the reach and sale of our products and solutions. And ultimately as we evolve to becoming an integrated energy company, we want to be recognized as the leading player in energy management and decarbonization as a service. These are some new sources of value emerging from our strategy.

And now let me tell you about some of the progress we've made so far working in partnership with cities and industries. Earlier this year, the city of Houston made a pledge to become net 0 just like us. BP has had a long and great relationship with Houston after decades of oil and gas operations. You could say we are on the same journey to reinvent ourselves. I am thrilled to say that the city of Houston has chosen to work in partnership with us and we've signed a climate action plan agreement with them.

Houston emits more than 30,000,000 tons of CO2 per year and is rightly concerned about being more climate change resilient. To combat this, they've drafted a comprehensive climate action plan, which focuses on transportation, materials management, energy transition and building optimization. Houston has already made significant progress in the area of renewable power, but together there's much more we can do more broadly. We will provide planning advice on the agreed focus areas and expect to participate in their future implementation. In turn, the city can also help enable decarbonization and pace through effective policy.

We also recently signed a memorandum of agreement for energy transition cooperation with the city of Aberdeen to support their ambition to become a climate positive city. While Aberdeen is smaller in population than Houston, it is positioning itself as a world leading hydrogen hub in the U. K. And in Northwest Europe given its significant wind power potential. In addition, it is implementing energy efficiency for buildings and optimizing district heating, accelerating adoption of low carbon fleet mobility and moving towards a circular economy.

Aberdeen as a traditional oil and gas employment market is also a great example of how working in partnership could support re skilling the workforce and sustaining local economic development through a just energy transition. This is just the start of what we expect to be a journey towards net 0. Houston, Aberdeen are not the only ones and there are many other cities who have embarked on this journey that we want to work with and with whom we are progressing discussions. And it's not just about cities. We also want to help industries and corporations decarbonize.

Microsoft is a good example of a high-tech corporate we have had a long relationship with and now are embarking on a new chapter of cooperation. Microsoft is one of the largest companies in the world, a technology giant with a very strong brand globally. They have gone above and beyond by not only pledging to be carbon negative by 2,030, but also to remove all historical emissions from when they were founded by 2,050. They also set up a $1,000,000,000 Climate Innovation Fund. We've signed an agreement with Microsoft recognizing each other's capabilities to explore how we can collaborate to accelerate our sustainability goals and help the world decarbonize.

Through our discussions, we found we were aligned in so many ways. We both have ambitious carbon reduction goals, want to decarbonize operations and value chains through technology and want to help the world accelerate the pathway to net 0. We see this as a strategic relationship cutting across many of our verticals where Microsoft can help BP with innovative digital technologies and where we can supply them with clean energy. We are exploring the possibilities of working together looking for opportunities to help others with digitally enabled lower or 0 carbon solutions. For example, in the area of cities where both companies see huge potential of bringing together our respective capabilities.

We are already furthering our partnership in a very tangible way. We recently signed an agreement with the aim of supplying long term renewable power to a number of key Microsoft data centers and extended our agreement for the use of Azure in service of accelerating BP's digitization strategy. This is a great example of the symbiotic partnership I mentioned earlier, where we are not only helping one another, but also partnering together to support others on their carbon reduction goals. We hope to share more exciting opportunities in the coming months. We are starting from a great place.

We have deep relationships based on mutuality in the regions, countries and cities where we operate. We have a strong track record of delivering complex energy projects. We understand the interconnected environmental and social issues. We have a portfolio of products and services that we believe is valued by our customers and that can meet their needs for the energy transition towards net 0. We still have a lot to do and a lot to learn.

It's early days, but encouraging so far from the feedback we've gotten in the market. We started with delivering AIM10, launching a team to create integrated clean energy and mobility solutions. We want to focus on attracting the best talent internally and externally to build a world class organization. At Tier 2 leadership, we already have a strong, capable and energized team in place centrally and regionally. We are now creating insight and offer development capabilities, integrated business development teams for cities and corporates, any solutions delivery and key accounts management team.

We have also selected our near term focus areas, 10 to 15 cities, 3 industrial sectors and we have made great progress so far working in partnership with Houston, Microsoft and Aberdeen. We want to be a value multiplier for BP starting by integrating across our businesses to bring the best of BP to our customers. And ultimately, we want to be recognized as the market leader in digitally enabled energy and decarbonization services and solutions. We're adopting a start up mentality, customer focused, nimble, curious and willing to learn. But we are not the first to do this.

Entering this new space brings new competitors and potentially new partners as well. But we believe there is sufficient differentiation and significant opportunities for us to be successful. We hope you are as excited about region, cities and solutions as we are. Now let me share a short video to close and then we'll be taking a break before hearing from Emma on convenience and mobility. Thank you for listening.

Speaker 11

So here in the city of Houston, we announced our very first climate action plan with the goal of being carbon neutral by 2,050 in line with the Paris agreement.

Speaker 12

We're very proud at Microsoft about our net zero ambition. We announced that by 2,050, we're committed to having erased the entirety of the carbon footprint of the company since its inception.

Speaker 13

We've got a clear vision for Aberdeen City. It's driven by a desire to diversify our economy and respond to climate change. We've developed a net zero vision to make sure that we are a need center for energy transition.

Speaker 11

Houston is very much a car city. We are also on a major highway thoroughfare. That vehicle electrification is a huge opportunity, but that's also a huge behavioral shift.

Speaker 13

We see that there may be operational and technical constraints around us delivering that vision. We believe that if we can get that collaboration partnership with them, we can deliver for the city of Abu Dhabi.

Speaker 12

As energy demands increase, the pressure associated with creating clean technologies is only increasing. The challenges associated with this strategy, 1st and foremost, is that a lot of the technology that we depend on in our approach has not yet been invented. It's also a play into just why our partnership with BP is so critical.

Speaker 13

We're incredibly excited to have been chosen by BP to work in partnership with them. We know that they've got plans to work with 10 to 15 cities around the world, but it's fabulous news that Aberdeen is going to be one of the first cities, and we can't meet to get started.

Speaker 11

Climate change is a global challenge, and it will take a global solution. When you have any type of climate emergency, we can't do it alone. And we are grateful for BP's support for our climate action plan.

Speaker 12

We believe that technology can solve some of the problems that Microsoft can't do at a level. BP are the energy experts here. And by teaming together and bringing the power of our technology portfolio to all of the expertise in the industry at BP, we can solve world

Speaker 14

tomorrow.

Speaker 15

Good morning, afternoon and evening to everyone. Thank you for taking the time to listen to today's session. I'm Emma Delaney, EVP for Customers and Products. I joined BP quite some time ago in Germany in the Fleets team within our fuels marketing business. And after many ventures around the world, it's a huge privilege to be back in BP's customer facing business and leading it through this transformation.

And this really is a diverse business, ranging from fuel sold on Four Quarts, whether that's what we call B2B or B2C the convenience product sold through our forecourt shops, everything from snacks to ready meals to your morning latte our Castrol Lubricants brand sold through numerous channels and our Aviation Fueling business and of course, our new charging businesses. We work closely with Gordon's production and operations team and Carol's trading and shipping team as part of an integrated value chain. That's important and will continue to be a key part of how we work. There are 4 things I'd like you to take away from today's session. First, these are strong businesses today.

They already have scale. They're growing. They're delivering cash and strong returns. In a minute, I'll give you the numbers. 2nd, we see more growth to come.

In the next decade, we aim to nearly double our earnings. Today, I'll spend most of my presentation explaining what we expect to drive that growth. 3rd, we have a great team and innovative partnerships that are relevant to each market around the world giving us great capability. 4th and perhaps most important, these businesses are adaptable to the energy transition. Even more, the new business models we're building mean that they are not just adaptable, but that they can thrive through the energy transition.

Those are the four points that I'll address in turn today. But crucially, and before going any further, I want to emphasize that safety is of paramount importance. Safety is our core value. It permeates everything we do right across our company. Let me address the first point that together, our convenience and mobility businesses are strong businesses today with a track record of delivery.

Here are the numbers. There's a lot of them. So let me touch on a few. I'm going to start top left. We made around $5,000,000,000 of EBITDA in 2019, a growth of 7% per annum since 2014, with ROCE of more than 20%.

We have more than 10,000,000 customer touch points per day at our forecourts, and we have more than 200,000,000 lubricant customers every year. We have 19,000 branded sites. In 21 countries, about 25% of these are company owned. The rest are owned by dealer and branded marketing partners. 1600 of those retail sites are strategic convenience sites, by which we mean Food For Now and Food For Later offers, and most of those are company owned.

Our brands are strong. We delivered more than $1,000,000,000 of gross margin from convenience, and we sell over 150,000,000 cups of coffee a year. Emerging markets have grown recently with about 1300 retail sites in growth markets. Our premium brands in Castrol have kept engines moving for decades, and the network of 24,000 branded workshops provide a platform for evolving our customer value propositions. And we already have more than 7,500 charging points in the U.

K. And China, both among the fastest growing EV markets. So I hope you can see that today, we already have scale, global presence and a strong track record. Our scale and returns are competitive with other marketing players such as Couche Tard. These are already strong businesses.

That's my first takeaway for today. So let me get to my second takeaway. There's more growth to come. I'm going to take a little longer on this point. It's the heart of my presentation today.

These are growing businesses. We see that growth in 3 areas. 1st, advancing growth markets. We plan to scale up our differentiated offers in growth markets. And over time, we aim to help shape these markets to lean into the transition to low carbon mobility.

2nd, we'll redefine convenience in key focus markets to offer customers what they need, where and when they need it. 3rd, and really important, is our plan to scale up next generation mobility solutions, including electrification, sustainable fuels and hydrogen. In each of these growth areas, digital solutions, strategic partnerships and BP's own integrated value chain will be the key to developing innovative customer solutions in mobility and convenience. And in talking about these growth areas, I want to be clear about something. This is not just wishful thinking.

We've done our homework. And for each of these businesses, we have evidence based reasons for believing that the growth we intend to deliver is achievable. And to show you that's the case, I'd like to share with you some trends shaping convenience and mobility today. So going left to right, there are 4 shown on this slide, including 3 based on the BP Energy outlook rapid transition scenario. In fact, unless I say otherwise, when I use data to illustrate the possible future of mobility in the rest of this presentation, that's the scenario I'm referring to.

As Bernard said yesterday, while our strategy is designed to be resilient to a range of future pathways, we want to see a rapid transition. First, people want to go places, but outsource the hassle. Passenger car vehicle kilometers could double by 2,040 with a quarter of those kilometers being shared mobility. On Monday, Spencer talked about people shifting away from public transport and private vehicles into the so called robo taxi. It's transport that allows people to use cars on an as needed basis.

It's the car summoned as a service, not as something that sits in your driveway waiting to be used a few hours a week. We believe digital platforms, along with convenient solutions, will underpin the growth of shared mobility. 2nd, the internal combustion engine will be with us for some time. We see road transportation fuel demand potentially being broadly flat till 2,030, gradually declining thereafter, but still remaining material. Despite a decline in that demand in OECD markets, it rises in growth markets such as India, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico, even in 2,040.

The U. S. Remains the number one fuel demand country, making our network there important, while China, India, Brazil and Indonesia make up the rest of the top 5 fuel demand countries, and together represent more than 50% of global demand, with Mexico at number 7, supporting our expansion in those countries. So we see demand for hydrocarbon fuels continuing. 3rd, electrification, fuel diversification.

Crucially, EVs are no longer the exception, and by 2,040, scale up to around €900,000,000 almost 50% of the car park. More than half of these EVs in 2,040 are in the U. S, EU, U. K. And China.

Of the passenger car EV usage, nearly 65% of the electricity demand is driven by shared mobility and fleets, which operate in major cities and electrify rapidly in the coming years. For heavy goods vehicles, hydrogen is more logical. So by 2,040, we see demand for hydrogen hitting potentially almost 16,000,000 tonnes. That's equivalent to over 800,000 barrels of oil per day. And in addition, biofuels grows at nearly 5% per annum to 2,030.

So we see fuel mix in the decades ahead continuing to diversify. And the final trend, convenience, small format and on the go, food, snacks, ready meals and coffee, I mentioned earlier, this continues to grow. Based on Euromonitor analysis, in 45 of the leading economies of the world, convenience nearly doubles by 2,030, growing at more than 5% per annum. We saw during the pandemic people shopping online and topping up in local stores like ours, but it's a long term trend too. And the total revenue pool for our established markets has grown in real terms every year since 2010.

Our AMPM business in the U. S. Has seen growth in sales every year for the past 10 years. Convenience is proven to be a highly resilient business. We've tried to imagine what the customer journey of the future might look like and have a short video to share.

Speaker 16

I'm in London. I go into the office twice a week. I don't take the car all the way. It's a low emission zone, just as far as the hub. It's really useful having this.

I can fill the car up, drop off the return, and grab a bite to eat. Love that breather before the office. Meet Sara, my other half. She runs FleetMeek, provides electric vehicles for cabs, deliveries, weddings, you name it. Sara is the techie one.

FleetMe uses DP's fleet management system. Sara can see at a glance where the whole fleet is, what's charged, what's in for repair. Sarah's big thing is being able to schedule repairs from her screen so the fleet is off the road for the shortest possible time. The workshop can get through all the vehicles in a day now. But what really makes SARS day is that now, when one of the fleet needs charging, the vehicle tells the driver where the nearest BP fast charging hub is with directions to boot.

No one's caught anymore without charge as Sara says. And I've got hard evidence this stuff actually works. A neighbor of ours, Jamia, delivers flowers to local florists. Before he gets to BP charging hub, he orders lunch on BP's app and the system tells the catering guys at the hub how close Jamea is to them so they know when to prep his lunch. Said it's the highlight of this day.

Whatever makes you happy. That'll be Thursday nights for me. Thursday is the day we don't cook. Around midday, DP Me puts

Speaker 11

up. Hi, Monica. They know me so well.

Speaker 16

Here's an offer for dinner tonight based on what you'd like. I select home delivery. But the really clever bit is that it triggers delivery tonight when it knows I'm 15 minutes from home. No more missing the driver. Sara says it's the magic of delivered by BP.

I just like the magic of fish pie. I say no missing the driver, but there isn't one anyway. The bot, I call it, just wings its way to the house and dinner is served. And all that's to look forward to tomorrow. But you know what they say, tomorrow comes sooner than you think.

Speaker 15

As you've just seen, we want to create solutions for mobility for our customers. This slide will be familiar to you from our August 4 announcement and laid out our 2,030 aims. As I said, we have the scale today, and we have more growth to come. We aim to nearly double our EBITDA across convenience and mobility by 2,030, and see this growth split roughly equally across the 3 growth areas. We believe we can do this while still delivering ROCE in the range of 15% to 20%.

Now let me take each in turn. First, growth markets. I'll get straight into an example. 3 years ago, we entered Mexico for the first time. Since then, we've built 5.40 sites and grown to become the 2nd largest fuel retailer in the country after Pemex.

Growth markets like Mexico are today and will be in the future a key driver for our business. Our aim is to double our EBITDA from these markets, as you can see from the chart, and to grow our network to more than 8,000 branded retail sites by 2,030. And we have clear success factors. These are differentiated fuels and lubricants underpinned by leading technology strong brands trusted to deliver digital solutions and loyalty to serve customers and provide solutions that seamlessly meet their changing needs. Strategic partnerships to establish position and accelerate growth.

And advantage network quality sites and quality locations. We have a strong record of scaling up in these markets. I've already mentioned what we're achieving in Mexico, but I have 2 more examples to share with you. The first is Castrol in China. Over the last 10 years, we have grown to provide 22% of the passenger car premium oils sold in China.

We're the number one premium brand, and our products are distributed by independent workshops. We plan to continue growing in China by expanding distribution beyond the biggest cities, focusing on premium products and leveraging our partnerships with local companies, such as SAIC, the largest automotive group in China. Secondly, I'm very excited about our plans in India. In India, we aim to create material businesses by providing an integrated customer offer. A quick look at the India market.

India has a vast and growing middle class population with over 350,000,000 smartphones in active use and growing. It's set to be one of the fastest growing fuels and lubricants markets over the next 20 years, with the number of passenger cars growing nearly sixfold over the period. Through Castrol, we have built a strong presence in India over many years and are the number one premium brand and the largest selling brand for motorcycles and passenger cars. In July, we were delighted to announce the completion of a joint venture with Reliance Industries to build a world class partnership for mobility, convenience and low carbon solutions. Reliance Industries is India's largest private sector company, leaning into the digital transformation through their Geo brand, building partnership with tech giants like Google and Facebook.

Operating under the GEOBP brand, the joint venture has plans to scale up to 5,500 retail sites by 2025. This joint venture will bring together GEO's market leading presence with over 390,000,000 consumers on the GEO digital platform and BP's global retail experience in differentiated fuels, development of convenience offers, Castrol's leading position and advanced low carbon mobility solutions. At GEO BP branded sites, customers will have access to high quality fuel, castrol lubricants and a quick lube oil change service, tailored convenience, digital loyalty offers, and we will combine our skills to offer advanced mobility services, for example, looking at fleet management offers for trucks. Looking out to 2,030 and beyond, aligned with the 2 organizations' net zero ambitions, there are opportunities to shape low carbon mobility solutions for customers in India by supporting electrification of 2 and 3 wheeler transport and providing battery management solutions. This is a very exciting joint venture.

And in this process, we aim to become a leader in India's fuel and mobility market. Having talked about growth markets, let me turn to the 2nd pillar of our growth strategy, redefining convenience. This is our strategy in our established markets. It means making buying our fuels even more convenient and our retail goods too. As I said earlier, we have a great network of sites, 19,000, most of which are in our established markets like the U.

S, the U. K. And Germany. And the advantage of our century of heritage is that our brands are familiar and trusted. Our sites generally sell more fuel than the industry average.

And in key markets, our premium fuels take our customers further and generate higher unit margins than our regular fuels. We're always learning. We know that transacting customers on our loyalty schemes purchase 4 times as much fuel. That's why we want to make it easier for them, and we're digitizing the customer journey and linking our loyalty schemes through BPME. For our dealers and branded marketer partners, these factors are important.

We choose our partners carefully, and they choose us carefully too. We're proud of them. They do an incredible job. So I thought I'd introduce you to some of them now. Let's hear why they choose BP.

Speaker 17

Today's world is competitive as things are, it's important that you stand out. And I think that's what BP is trying to do. They're trying to figure out ways to do things differently that help us. And I don't know what else we want from a supplier than that.

Speaker 14

My name is Paul Lecphey. I'm the President of Coble Leaf BP. The reason I came back to BP 2017 is because of the brand loyalty and the image and the way they care about their sites.

Speaker 15

We're proud to be branded and we're proud to be associated with the BP brand.

Speaker 17

If we do it right, we win together. And that's really what it's all about, partnership.

Speaker 15

So that's our fuel offer. But redefining convenience is about much more than fuel. Sure, convenient fuel payment via our app works, but customers on the go want much more than fuel. And so we bake pastries, brew coffee, package deliveries for customers. And as I mentioned earlier, one of the things I'd like to leave you with today is partnerships are key.

We're working to develop innovative partnerships relevant to each market around the world, giving us great capabilities. We have established a convenience partnership model with some of the world's leading retailers in the U. K, Marks and Spencer in Germany, with RAVA and in the U. S, AMPM. Our customers value those partnerships, and we do too.

We estimate that a typical BPE Marks and Spencer site delivers roughly twice the profitability of a comparable site in the U. K. More than half our transactions in these stores are already shop only. We consider these to be strategic convenience sites, and that's why we've successfully replicated the convenience partnership model elsewhere. We now have more than 1600 strategic convenience sites in 11 countries, including 550 Arag, Rheva to go sites that we have introduced across Germany over the last 3 years.

The result is convenience margins that have grown at about 8% a year since 2015 and stores that last year delivered more than $1,000,000,000 gross margin from convenience. Even this year, store sales in the U. K. Are up 5% on the same period last year. For those who wonder about the resilience of a network facing declining fuel sales, I'll point to networks which are constantly adapting.

In 1970, the U. K. Had over 35,000 petrol forecourts. Today, it has around 8,000. So far fewer stations, but the revenues of a modern site are increasingly far more diverse.

We intend to modernize every area of our sites to make them a place where you want to take a break. We believe we can more than offset the impact of fuel volume declines in established markets to 2,030 through growth inconvenience. Let me take a moment to describe how. The main image shows our side of the future from the customer journey film I showed earlier. And it's different in 3 main ways.

Firstly, it's increasingly customer led. When we're on the road, we've learned through our customer insights, we want food for now, but also food for later. So we will invest to improve both our proprietary branded food such as Wild Bean Cafe, and we'll continue to expand the convenience partnership model. In Australia, we're rolling out a partnership with Australian retailer, David Jones. And globally, we aim to nearly double our strategic convenience sites from 1600 to more than 3000 by 2,030.

The second way the side of the future is different is that we're optimizing our operations. AI and machine learning components will improve our end to end supply chain. Better local ranging, automated reactions to weather and local events can increase availability and reduce wastage, leading to reduced cost but improved customer experiences. We've run a pilot and are developing a solution to scale up in the U. K.

And other markets in 2021. The improvements we plan to make to site operating systems will position us to improve our operating margin and also to make our franchise proposition more attractive to retailing dealers and branded marketers. The third way this side of the future is different is that digital allows us to better understand our customer needs, personalize our offers and create the highly convenient services they want. An example, customers increasingly expect seamless interactions wherever they go. In New Zealand, our Wild Bean Cafe is the nation's preferred coffee brand, and more than a third of coffees in that market are ordered via our app.

We want to apply that seamless experience to other areas. Our BP and E platform already has over 3,000,000 transacting customers, and we're expanding beyond fuel with regular upgrades. We aim to grow the number of transacting customers on our digital platforms more than tenfold by 2,030. Digital also allows us to expand our convenient delivery services. Customer proximity is key for this, and more than 90% of the U.

K. And German populations live within a 20 minute drive of our stores. The value of this proximity was amplified during the COVID lockdown. We were able to scale up our delivered convenience service at speed and roll out to new markets such as Spain within a month of lockdown starting. We now have delivery live in 8 countries and plan to expand further.

Through these initiatives, our aim is to more than double convenience gross margin by 2,030. And through this, we'll continue to high grade our portfolio. The retail side of the future will combine fuel plus convenience with electrification as part of next gen mobility, the 3rd pillar of our strategy for growth, which I'll turn to now. Next generation mobility is the 3rd pillar of our growth strategy. We plan to scale up distinctive models that play to the current megatrends of electrification, rise in shared mobility and hydrogen in heavy duty transport.

We will leverage our capabilities in safety management, expertise in scaling up and operating an advantaged network, digital solutions and loyalty and strategic partnerships to create differentiated customer offers. The success factors here have some commonality with fuel and convenience retail. But in this new service line, fast and reliable charging is important as well as the ability to provide competitive pricing. In electrification, our aim is to provide the fastest and most convenient, most reliable network of chargers delivered through great customer experience and innovative offers. We plan to roll out a mix of rapid and ultra fast charters in advantaged locations and mobility hubs for fleets, starting with our 4 focus regions, U.

K, U. S, Germany and China, which make up over 60% of the EV car park by 2,030. We will create a charging network that offers customers convenient charging solutions where they need it at home, at workplaces, at destinations and public charging, including ultrafast charging. And the customer needs will differ by region. For example, in the U.

K, 40% of charging is likely to occur at home in 2,030, whereas in China, only 15% of charging is likely to occur at home. Reliability and most effective price setting capability will deliver leading utilization rates, which enables robust returns. Together, these factors will create an advantage network in electrification similar to how we've created an advantaged network in retail business over many decades. And we're already in action to serve that demand with BP Chargemaster in the U. K.

And BP Didi JV in China. In Germany, we have plans to roll out 3 50 kilowatt ultrafast chargers, which will allow customers 220 miles driving range with just 10 minutes of charging. Shared mobility grows over time, as we saw with Spencer's presentation on Monday, and we are already scaling up charging hubs for leading mobility providers. We have plans to scale up mobility solutions that help fleet customers reduce the total cost of ownership through end to end fleet management and service and maintenance. We plan to scale up hydrogen refueling stations, and I'll say more about this in

Speaker 16

a few

Speaker 15

minutes. Altogether, we plan to create a scalable next generation mobility business that can deliver robust returns and free cash flow generation and we will execute this with capital discipline. But let me give you some more concrete examples, starting with electrification and here in the U. K. First.

As I just mentioned, BP Chargemaster, a leading charging network that we acquired in 2018, now has more than 7,500 operated charge points across the U. K. By 2,030, we aim to have more than doubled the number of charge points in the U. K. With a 30 fold increase in the kilowatt hours of electricity sold to our customers.

We plan for BP Chargemaster to get to EBITDA breakeven in the next couple of years, generating material profitability by 2,030. And last year, we launched ultrafast chargers at our retail forecourts, and we plan to roll out a further 1400 ultrafast chargers by 2,030, including at Four Quarts in advantaged locations. Our 150 ultrafast chargers provide customers with around 100 miles driving range for 10 minutes of charge time. Colocation at our convenience retail site allows the consumer to enjoy the benefits of our wider retail offer while recharging their vehicle and taking a break. A key driver of returns in the electrification business is utilization, that is how much our chargers are used.

If the number of EV passenger cars grow to over 8,000,000 by 2,030 in the U. K, this could treble the utilization of our ultrafast chargers, contributing to that material profitability I mentioned earlier. For example, at our forecourt near Hammersmith flyover, our ultrafast chargers are already each charging 20 cars a day. And our recent agreement with Mercedes Benz will drive utilization too. In new vehicles sold in the U.

K, BP Chargemaster's Polar network is incorporated in the EV in car software platform. This software has route optimized navigation systems that calculates and directs drivers to the nearest Mercedes me charge points, of which BP ChargeMaster is the leading network in the U. K. And we're rolling out an EV charging digital platform that will provide customers with a seamless experience through front end customer interface. And just last week, we announced a strategic partnership with Uber to bring together our winning proposition of network, convenience and loyalty with Uber's leading mobility platform with rapidly growing electric vehicles.

Uber is committed to an all electric vehicles on their platform in London by 2025, and we will provide the rapid charging network needed for their partner drivers to make the switch. All EV charging will be supplied through renewable energy, which is aligned with Uber's global sustainability commitments. We expect to scale the network over the next 5 years. This means an Uber partner driver can reliably and conveniently charge their electric vehicle at BP chargemaster's rapidly expanding network, including at the ultrafast chargers and rapid charging hub. So with an advantage network, leading utilization and great partnerships, we're aiming to grow this business fast.

Those are examples from the U. K. But another of our focus areas is China. And there, we have a joint venture with Didi, which became operational in the Q1 of 2020 under the name BP Xiaoju. China is already a global EV leader.

And by 2,030, China could have more than 70,000,000 EV passenger cars, which is nearly 50% of the global EV car park. DiDi is the world's leading mobile transportation platform with nearly 30,000,000 rides per day and over 550,000,000 users on its digital platform. DiDi already has around 1,000,000 EV passenger cars on their platform with plans to expand further. So together, we're developing EV charging infrastructure By combining our safety management, global retail capability and operational excellence with DD's large and growing customer base, we have an exciting opportunity to grow this business in the world's largest electric vehicle market. Electrification hubs in advantaged locations by leveraging advanced data analytics to identify demand profiles.

Our network already has industry leading utilization. For example, our average utilization of charge points in China is above the industry average in most cities we operate in. And we're evolving our offers and services based on customer insights. We're developing a BP digital platform for B2C customers, that's business to consumer customers, along with loyalty program and convenience offers to grow our customer touch points. By 2,030, we plan to have more than 2,000 charging sites with over 35,000 charge points generating robust earnings that would roughly be the same as our current U.

K. Retail business. And as I said at the beginning of this presentation, we have great capability and continue to recruit people with new and different perspectives and experiences. Let's hear from some of them.

Speaker 13

What I love about my role is fully aligned with what I think the future of energy needs to look like. It's aligned with my social responsibility and building something that is going to bring a more sustainable future.

Speaker 18

My last position was with Ford Motor Company.

Speaker 6

The reason I came to BP, so

Speaker 18

I saw a really big opportunity to deliver material change on a global scale in the areas of electrification

Speaker 6

CEO of Western Europe, Forget, the global e mobility company.

Speaker 19

We always challenge ourselves, the traditional mindset, trying to look for the new ways of working.

Speaker 13

We're also working super agile. So we are developing value at pace.

Speaker 19

We jointly develop integrated solutions.

Speaker 3

We've demonstrated agile, digital and customer first in the education space where we managed to develop a world class digital platform in record time.

Speaker 19

Working on the successful acquisition of ChargeMaster is an achievement that I'm most proud of. We have been reinventing BP's brand value and reputation in China market. Our customers recognize and appreciate BP's commitment in electrification and mobility space. Our joint partnership with D and E is one of the good examples.

Speaker 13

Looks really challenging, but also really promising. We want to reimagine energy.

Speaker 6

Electrification of vehicles is a 3 league industry to be within, one of the fastest growing on the planet.

Speaker 19

As we scale up our investment, we will enable BPZ aim for operating 70,000 charge points by 2,030 and being a net zero company.

Speaker 18

I'm super excited to be right in the center of this change. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Speaker 13

The most important thing is that we have the team. We have a lot of great talented people committed to the same goal. So we just need to switch on the engine and fly to the

Speaker 14

future.

Speaker 15

Fantastic. Well, in the beginning, I mentioned the key things I'd like you to take away for today. And I've covered the first about scale and delivery, the potential for growth and some of the partnerships important to our business. I also said the base business is adaptable to the transition. We've looked at fuels and retail, but another thread here is Castrol.

So I'd like to take a moment on Castrol and how it fits with mobility and convenience today and in the future. I'm often asked, is Castrol resilient in the energy transition? And with renewed focus on business improvement plans, together with investment and integration with mobility, we believe Castrol is resilient to the transition and will grow. While overall lubricants demand falls, demand for premium lubes remains strong with the same volume demand in 2,040 estimated as we have today. Growth markets demand for premium lubricants increases at 2% per annum to 2,040.

Castrol is well positioned here with almost half of its earnings today from these growth markets. Also, the transition to electrification will bring opportunities for Castrol. Plug in hybrids will still require engine oils, and EVs will require fluids such as greases, transmission fluids and coolants. And Castrol will play a key role in BP's integrated offer as a global consumer business. Being the number one brand in 8 of the top 10 automotive markets, We have 3 mega brands that each have revenues of around $1,000,000,000 We have differentiated technology for premium products today that improve engine efficiency and lower carbon emissions.

And we have strong partnerships with manufacturers like Bosch and OEMs, including Renault, Daimler, SAIC and Jaguar Land Rover to name but a few. In EV Fluids, we have co engineering programs with 5 of the top 10 EV manufacturers. And Castrol's advanced EV fluids are onboard the Panasonic Jaguar Racing Formula E Racecar. In fact, every Jaguar I PACE born has Castrol EV fluids inside. And Castrol is a trusted service provider with 24,000 Castrol branded workshops across the world in the service and maintenance space, which can adapt as vehicles change.

With integrated digital platforms, we will create a Castrol BP Mobility offer. All of these elements make Castrol's business model resilient, we believe, to the transition and an important contributor to BP's integrated offer. Not only do we expect Castrol to thrive in the energy transition, but let me pause for a moment on some of the other areas that present opportunities. Biojet, it's vital for decarbonizing the aviation sector. We aim to be a leading sustainable aviation fuel marketer by 2,030, with around 20% share of the world sales of Biojet.

We're already one of the leading Biojet marketers. And in 2019, we supplied Biojet at 11 airports in 4 countries, including Sweden, USA, Germany and France. We plan to expand by leveraging our refineries for bioprocessing, our trading and shipping organization for capital light offtake options and the Bioenergy Group, as you heard from Dev earlier. Then there's Hydrogen. Hydrogen has the potential to play a key role in the decarbonization of the heavy duty transport sector, forecast to be the fuel of choice for long distance due to a lighter, faster refueling powertrain.

We're developing business models to scale up hydrogen refueling stations in locations across the U. S. And Europe. And then there's offsets. Julia outlined on Monday the important role natural climate solutions and offsets need to play in the energy transition.

The near term focus of our customer facing businesses is on looking for ways to provide these offsets as solutions for our customers, solutions to support their transition as other solutions become more affordable over time. One example is the DRiV carbon neutral program launched by our fuels business in Portugal, which provides offsets with fuels. Offers like these are an end to the other next generation mobility solutions we're building as our businesses seek to drive down the overall carbon intensity

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of our marketed energy products.

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As I hope you will see, we are focused on generating sustainable earnings and cash flow. We aim to achieve this by focusing on our customers and responding and delivering on their changing needs, starting from a strong base with a business that's material and one that has a strong track record of growth and robust returns. As we look to 2025, we expect to deliver continued EBITDA growth with most of it coming from growth markets and convenience and next gen mobility starting to contribute to the overall shape, building resilience in our marketing businesses. We expect to deliver this while delivering ROCE in the range of 15% to 20%. And as we look beyond to 2,030, we aim to grow customer touch points per day in our convenience and mobility business from $10,000,000 to more than $20,000,000 by 2,030.

Central to our strategy is the digital platform and strategic partnerships. Our share of retail margin from convenience and electrification is expected to grow from 25% today to 50% by 2,030. And along with high grading our portfolio, we're working to deliver around $1,000,000,000 of efficiencies over the next few years, offsetting inflation and helping fund our investments as we capture these growth opportunities. In closing, it's a pleasure and a privilege to lead this business in this time of change. I hope I've left you with a good understanding of our aspirations.

And just to reiterate our key messages, these are strong business today, and we have a track record of delivery. We see more growth to come in the next decade, and we aim to nearly double our EBITDA. We have a great team and innovative partnerships, giving us great capabilities. And perhaps most important, these businesses are adaptable and can thrive in the energy transition. Thank you for listening.

And that concludes today's presentations. We hope you can join us again tomorrow when Gordon, David and Murray will each talk to you further about our strategy.

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