Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on this call this morning. We've delivered a resilient performance for the first 10 months of 2025, despite sustained market challenges that we have experienced. Our focus on self-help and strategic execution has continued to deliver profitable growth. GB and the US residential demand has been particularly subdued, and that has been compounded by infrastructure delays in GB and Ireland. Nonetheless, we have stayed focused on the integration of LIONMARK, which has balanced our end market exposure in the US towards infrastructure, where the market remains encouraging. We have continued with operational and commercial initiatives to maximize self-help.
Thanks.
Turning to the revenue performance that we've seen in the year to date, we've obviously, on a reported basis, seen a further increase in the 10 months to the end of October. On a like-for-like basis, the revenue performance remains pretty consistent with what we saw in the first half of the year, and that's reflected in both volumes and pricing. Volumes remain broadly in line with where they were to that half year, slightly down, with a bigger inflection into ready-mixed concrete due to its residential housing exposure. Pricing has probably been a little bit more resilient than we might have expected. It is down year on year, but it's down marginally in the very low single digits.
If we look across the three divisions, the GB performance has really been underpinned by a good deal of self-help and operational and customer initiatives that have gone on within that business. The Irish business has continued to trade robustly, particularly in the context of those significant infrastructure projects having been deferred. In the US, whilst there is a very significant weighting towards the second half of the year, it's slightly behind where we guided to at the half year. We are going to see a revenue performance more in line with 40/60 and profitability more like 30/70 for the US business over the course of 2025.
When you put all of that together, year on year, we will deliver yet another year of profitable growth for the group and underlying EBITDA for 2025 in the range of 275-280 and a reduction in government leverage to the year end as we outlined at the half year. Turning to the outlook, in the medium term, we remain encouraged by the U.K. government's commitment to infrastructure and house building, whilst acknowledging that today, ahead of the budget, there is considerable economic and fiscal uncertainty. The National Development Plan in the Republic of Ireland does represent a significant increase in the potential infrastructure investments in the next few years, and we believe we will be well placed to benefit from that.
Enabling legislation has also been brought forward in Ireland, in particular the Critical Infrastructure Bill and the Emergency Powers Bill, both aimed at fast-tracking strategic projects, which is encouraging for our business there. In the U.S., there remains considerable opportunity to build out our business, and there will be upside from residential when activity returns. However, in the near term, non-residential and infrastructure markets remain resilient, and market growth expectations have moderated in the U.S. In summary, we have an excellent team, three leading platforms, and a well-invested business. Although there is uncertainty about the timing of a market recovery, particularly in the U.K., we remain well placed to take advantage of it when it comes. Operator, please come in our way from the lines and take questions.
Thank you. If you would like to ask questions, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. A voice from on the phone line will indicate when the line is open. We'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for a question. As a reminder, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. We will take our first questions from Ansley Lemmin from Investec. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Morning all. Just two from me, please. Just on GB, obviously you're saying that the trends have kind of continued as they were since the half year, but have things got worse in GB? Just a bit more color, maybe on some of the end markets, resi and infrastructure from what you've seen over recent months. As you look in, I know this is about FY25, but just some of the comments around US growth moderating, is that primarily residential? Are you a bit more kind of cautious around the outlook for FY26 and the trends as we go into next year on the U.S., just underlying general construction activity? Thanks.
Thank you. On the GB trends, I think you would have seen the MPA stats for Q3. If anything, the market's got slightly weaker. I would say aggregates and asphalt have held up and been fairly resilient, but ready mix, and you'll have seen the stats, it's now at the lowest in 62 or 63 years. And cement, which is correlated to that, there were some recent stats out which date back to 2024 because of the competition restrictions on data, but it shows that domestic use of cement is now at its lowest since 1950. The other information that's come out is probably the latest CPA forecast, their autumn forecast, which just showed that growth has been moderating as well. If anything, I'd say the biggest challenge at the moment is ready mix correlated to house building.
Given the sort of current sort of hiatus in advance of the budgets and some of the stats and some of the surveys that have come out from RICS, it's almost halted that market.
I think in terms of the U.S. market, Ansley, in residential, the expectation coming into this year was that there would be some significant moves from the Fed as we came through the year and that that might in turn lead to a kickstart in residential in the U.S. market. That clearly has not happened. There is talk of cuts coming through during the course of 2026, which may lead to an increase of activity as we move through the year, but it has definitely shifted out to the right. I would say infrastructure and sort of commercial industrial over in the U.S. remains pretty buoyant, and there is opportunity there, particularly if we have a warmer and less damp winter and spring season moving into 2026.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. We are now taking our next questions from Roger Spetke from Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thank you. I've got two as well. The first one is on pricing. I think you mentioned pricing was down year on year, but if you could provide any incremental color by region and if you have seen any changes in competitive behavior. The second one, again, going back to '26 outlook, it might be too early to give a precise outlook for '26, but any initial thoughts on how you're seeing the shape of the recovery at this point for each of the three regions? Thank you.
Roger, in terms of pricing, it won't be a surprise to hear that pricing has been challenging in the GB market in particular this year. Coming back to my earlier remarks, though, probably a bit more resilient than I would have expected. There has been reasonable pricing in the US, and that's consistent with statements from some of the domestic majors that have been made over the course of the year that actually the pricing environment remains positive in that market. In Ireland, the way that the market operates is very much a year-to-year tendering process, and this year, the tendering prices were broadly where we expected them to be as we moved into the spring/late summer surfacing season.
Looking forward to 2026, I think it's quite difficult to call the precise timing of a market recovery in GB at the moment, and certainly until we're through the budget and into next year, that remains a bit of a moot point. I think for residential in the U.S. , whilst I think it is plausible to see some sort of recovery come through as the year moves through, I think, again, it's more likely to be second half weighted than first half weighted. In Ireland, it really depends on the timing of when the euros actually get deployed from the National Development Plan.
We are encouraged by the fact that the money is available and there are moves in terms of the legislation to ensure that as projects come to fruition, they can actually start on a reasonable timescale, but we do not yet know exactly how and when those monies will be deployed.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will take our next questions from At Press from BERENBERG. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Morning. Thanks for the question. Yeah, a couple from me as well. Firstly, you've talked about inquiries not converting into orders in the U.K. Do you have any sense of what's blocking this, or is it just a case of time and they will come through? Secondly, in the U.S., it's 40/60 this year in terms of revenue. You guided previously 35/65 at the half year. Are you expecting FY2026/2027 to revert to a 35/65, or is 40/60 looking to be more normal going forward?
In terms of the inquiries questionnaire, in order to get a sale, you need to have an order, and in order to get an order, you need an inquiry. Not all inquiries convert into orders. They are very much as much about the logistics of a potential delivery as they are about pricing, etc. We have seen, and we've been saying this consistently now for 15 months or so in GB in particular, a consistent step up in the level of inquiries. I think that's one of the things that continues to give us confidence about the medium term in GB. What we need now is the catalyst that will cause those inquiries to convert into those orders and then into sales. In recent weeks, we have seen some very significant renewables energy inquiries coming through into the GB business.
I think, again, that sort of underpins our medium-term confidence that actually these markets will recover, and we will see when they do, some quite significant levels of demand coming through. At the moment, it's just difficult to call the timing on that. In terms of the split for the U.S., if you've got a long-range weather forecast for me, then I'm very happy to give you a confirmed split half one, half two for 2026. I think in all seriousness, we will continue to see a greater weighting in the US business towards the second half. That is a function of the fact that the servicing operations that the iron market particularly conducts, they do not really get going until the late spring, and then they run across the summer and into the early part of the autumn.
There will continue to be a significant second half weighting. The other thing just to bear in mind as you're looking at 2026 numbers is that we will be consolidating LIONMARK for a full 12 months rather than the 10 months we have done this year, and LIONMARK is typically loss-making in the first three months of any financial year.
Oh, thank you.
Thank you. We are now taking our next questions from Christian here from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Morning. Just one question from me. Just on the U.S. again, and just to help us maybe unpick the performance there in a little bit more detail, based on updated guidance, what is the sort of pro forma movement in profit in that business? How should we think about that being separated between things like poor weather, which potentially could bounce back next year versus tougher markets? I suppose anything else that has surprised you or not with LIONMARK or BMC?
I think, Christian , in terms of I think if you look at that revenue shift from the guidance we gave at the half year, the substantial majority of that revenue shift relates to the fact that projects have ended up being deferred into 2026 and beyond. That is really, and that all comes back to the weather and the weather impact on the business that we saw in the first half, and customers just not having enough days left in the year in order to complete projects and therefore ending up deferring into next year. I think in terms of the end markets, as we have talked about, residential has weighed heavily on the BMC side of the business. In the course of 2025, it is a ready-mixed business, as you know, and that is the end market that takes a disproportionate amount of ready-mixed concrete.
There has definitely been an impact there. In terms of LIONMARK, I would say LIONMARK has been more impacted by that weather, by that late start, and the deferral of projects. I would expect the majority of those projects that have been deferred will come through during the course of 2026.
It's worth reminding everyone just how slow the start was. I know we talked about it at the intros, but to have lost 31 days in the first couple of months to sub-zero average temperatures versus nine the previous year just shows you how slow the start was. The catch-up, whilst there has been some, has just not been able to catch up quickly enough. That is not just a Breedon issue. That is the customers being able to catch up as well. We can only sell what our customers can take. I think that was a real challenge, and we must not forget just how slow the start was.
Brilliant. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Ramm from Goodbody. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I think you've covered some of the questions, but I just wanted to go back to Ireland and the projects that got deferred. I think Adair is now going ahead. A5 is kind of into the long grass, just the sort of trend there into 2026. The other one was, I know this is not a call about M&A, but do you continue to kind of work on add-ons? Because that's been a very fruitful source of kind of earnings and value addition for the group over the longer term. Thanks.
You're right on with that. That project has now been awarded, and we would expect to be laying on that bypass during the course of 2026. With the A5, it is under appeal, but I think the nature of appeal processes and the fact that the scheme was formally cancelled means that realistically, I think the earliest we could expect to see it start would be 2027.
The contract. I mean, I think ultimately the contract was only really awarded once the Rhino Cup was won back in September, but it's got to be done before the next Rhino Cup because Adair is hosting it.
Okay. We'll go.
We continue to have an active pipeline of opportunities, and those opportunities cover all three platforms, and we will continue to progress our bolt-on M&A strategy. We will be allocating capital carefully, and we will be prioritizing the markets where we see the strongest growth.
Thanks.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Harry Doe from Rothschild & Co. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Morning, everybody. I think I've got a couple of questions, if that's okay. I think firstly, I wonder if you could comment on or update us on the sort of variable cost environment, maybe as we sort of end the year and go into 2026. I think you've got some visibility on energy costs, but maybe sort of expected wage inflation maybe as we go into next year. Just secondly, I suppose on costs, within your view, given that with the continued subdued market, it feels as though there's not many signs of a major improvement coming around the corner soon. Do you think the cost base maybe is in the right place?
What the assumption that relies on, I suppose, if we saw maybe no volume improvement next year, do you think there might be more proactive actions you can maybe take on the cost base? Thank you.
Thanks, Harry. I think as we look into next year, my expectation is that the cost environment will broadly remain relatively benign. I think that general inflation is expected to continue to come down. I would expect our energy costs to be slightly lower as we come into next year as a function of where our rolling hedge program is taking energy to. I think in terms of the cost base, is it in the right place? I touched earlier about the extent of the self-help that we've done within the GB business this year. You're talking probably around a $10 million benefit to the bottom line in terms of the self-help initiatives that have been conducted within the GB business. I think in any year, whether volumes are growing or volumes are contracting, there's always stuff you can do around self-help and in particular around operational excellence.
Even if volumes were to not inflect again next year, I would still expect us to be able to do an element of self-help within the business. We've talked previously about the fact that throughout these down volume years, we have continued to invest in the business. We have continued, in particular, to be proactive around some of our capital investment programs in order to ensure that we don't compromise the recovery. That has remained the case this year. We feel that we remain confident that each of our markets will improve over time, and therefore it has been important to continue to invest back into the businesses. What we would expect, therefore, to see is as markets inflect, that we can get a sort of drop through on the way back up that we've seen going the wrong way against us on the way down.
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Thank you. As a final reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. We are taking our next questions from Sam Cullen from Peel Hunt. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, everyone. I was going to ask the same question as Harry, so I don't actually have a question for you. You can move on to the next question.
Nice to hear from you.
Value add as ever.
Thank you. Either of you, we have no further questions, so I will hand back to Rob Wood for any additional or closing remarks. Please go ahead, Sir.
Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. Look, we have delivered a resilient performance in some quite challenging markets, but we just wanted to remind you that we've got three leading platforms, we have an excellent team, and we've continued to invest for growth. When construction activity does improve, we'll be well positioned to benefits. Thank you very much for joining us, everyone.