Good morning, everybody, and welcome to this presentation of C&C's interim results. Hosting the call, you've got me, Ralph Findlay, Chairman, and Paddy McMahon, Chief Executive. So turning to the slide on page three, the key takeaways. I think the first thing to point out is that we have reported EBIT in the first half of EUR 30.5 million, and that is net of an estimated EUR 22 million of ERP impact that we've described previously. I'm pleased to report that the service levels in the GB distribution business have been restored, and the key metric that we target in that area is the OTIF score. And we're now back to, and indeed, slightly above pre-ERP implementation levels. So that has been good progress.
We have had an excellent performance from our strong brands, Bulmers in Ireland and Tennent's in Scotland, with across the two brands of Bulmers and Tennent's, net revenue growth of 9%. Just coming back briefly to the ERP system implementation. The operations within the distribution business are now consolidated onto one systems platform, and that really does give us scope for targeting further efficiencies and also further improvements in service. Turning to dividend and capital returns, we've today announced our intention to distribute EUR 150 million to shareholders over the next three fiscal years, staying within targeted leverage range of 1.5x -2x EBITDA. So just a bit more on that dividend and capital return objective. The first point I'd make is that we will seek to continue to maintain balance sheet strength.
So as I pointed out, we will target leverage of between 1.5x and 2x We'll continue to strengthen and improve the quality of the balance sheet to optimize cost of capital, and importantly, we will continue to retain the flexibility to manage disciplined investment in the business where there are opportunities to do so. At the same time, that includes, that dividend and capital return plan, includes a progressive base dividend growth. In these interim results, we have declared a dividend of EUR 0.0189, and in future, we will target progressive and sustainable base dividend growth. So just to summarize on that, distribution objective, the overall objective is for dividend and capital returns of EUR 150 million over the next three fiscal years.
With those highlights in mind, I'm going to hand over to Paddy to discuss the progress on our operating objectives.
Thank you, Ralph. Turning now to slide five, and a quick look at the market in GB as we see it. We see continued share losses for spirits. We noted that earlier in the year and spoke previously about spirits' outperformance immediately after the post-lockdown restrictions. Wine share has appeared to, or appears to have stabilized somewhat, with the share winners continuing to be beer and cider. In absolute terms, volumes for all categories declined by 2.6%, with value better than that at -0.5%. That's very much been achieved through pricing and premiumization. We spoke the last time about outlet closure trends in GB and Ireland, and the relative weighting of those to the IFT, the Independent Free Trade, and leased operators.
While that continues, we see the rate of decline slowing over the more recent period. A reminder that the growth of managed groups is good news for C&C, as over 60% of our GB distribution business is in that managed channel. So we've got strong relationships, stable businesses there. We're the number one supplier to that managed operators sector in GB, and we're growing. Turning now to slide seven and what was our big priority for Q2, the restoration of service levels. We've made solid progress and can confirm that our OTIF, which is our on time in full measure, is higher now than it was before our ERP implementation. Of course, we have more work to do in improving these scores further and rebuilding our history of consistency and reliable service to all of our customers.
In September, OTIF was 95% in GB. OTIF in Ireland remains very steady at about 98%, and as you know, that was unaffected by our ERP issues. Looking at slide 8, and a specific look at Scotland, again, largely unaffected by ERP issues during the year. Scotland brands represents about 60% of our total GB branded revenue, and within that, 85% of that relates to our wonderful Tennent's brand. Overall, both volumes and revenue grew for us in Scotland in the half. Price mix drove the performance on revenue, as we can see here, with branded even higher than our distribution business. This volume and revenue growth translated into relatively significant market share growth for the Tennent's brand in the on-trade, up 400 basis points. Growth that has been supported by upweight marketing activity and investment over the last period.
Tennent's brand volumes were flat year on year, with revenues up 11%. But it's not just about Tennent's, though. We've grown market share for our premium beers, too, in the form of Heverlee, Menabrea, and Innis & Gunn. The latter, we've got an 8% shareholding in. Turning now to slide nine, and a specific look at Ireland. Again, a region unimpacted for us by the ERP issues earlier this year. Like Scotland, we have revenue growth here being delivered through price and mix management. Bulmers continues to gain share of cider, up 35 basis points. However, we should note that cider, as a category, lost about 70 basis points share to leave it with about 11% of overall LAD in the period.
We continue to invest in the medium and long term, and Bulmers has reacted well to increased marketing investment and activity this year. Bulmers brand volumes were down 8%, but revenue was up 7% year-on-year. Turning to slide 11, a summary of the H1 FY 2024 financial results. Net revenue of EUR 873 million was down 1% year-on-year, and that's despite the performance being materially impacted by our ERP-related recovery in the period. Branded revenue, as I've outlined, driven by price mix, was +7% overall. Distribution revenues, down 3%. Operating profit of EUR 30.5 million reflects the one-off non-structural disruption caused by the ERP issues, with about EUR 22 million being our estimate for the impact in H1. Pleasingly, very pleasingly, branded profit grew by 5% in the period.
That reflects the resilience in the main of our two core brands and their place as category leaders. Operating profit margins of 3.5% overall comprised branded margins of 14.5% and distribution margins of 0.8%. Effectively, Matthew Clark Bibendum didn't generate profit in H1. As previously highlighted, our net debt was EUR 190 million post IFRS 16. That's up EUR 10 million from this time last year and equates to 2.1x net debt to EBITDA. On a pre-IFRS basis, leverage was 1.6x. Turning to slide 12, and an overview of our net revenue progression, across our branded and distribution businesses.
Like-for-like -1% year-on-year, we're pleased to report that within that, our branded net revenues across the group were in growth of 7%, with price mix growth of 11%, more than offsetting the volume declines of -4%. The pricing resilience of our core brands continues to insulate our P&L somewhat from trading headwinds, and we leverage that selectively as required. Magners performance in the period was not as strong as Tennent's and Bulmers, with volumes down 12% and revenues down 6%. Our distribution net revenues in Ireland were up 7%, representing 11% price mix increase, offsetting volume declines of -3%.
Despite the disruption emanating from our ERP implementation, our GB distribution net revenue declined by only 4%, as challenges with order fulfillment gradually eased over the period, providing the stability required to implement our delayed price increase and further enhancing our revenue yield. Turning to slide 13 now, and a summary of our operating profit performance across the group in the period. As previously declared, operating profit for the period was EUR 30.5 million, which incorporates an estimate of EUR 22 million for one-off operating profit impacts attributable to our ERP disruption. In Ireland, our branded and distribution businesses recorded operating profit growth of 5% and 6% respectively, which is clearly pleasing given the relatively muted volume opportunity. In GB, before accounting for one-off costs relating to the disruption, our branded business enjoyed operating growth of 4% over the six months.
However, our distribution businesses' operating profit did decline by 9%, which is reflective of, I think, primarily two factors. One, a strong reopening outcome in the prior year, post-lockdown reopening, and then less profitable customer and product category mix this year. The EUR 22 million estimate for ERP disruption costs are one-off in nature and span the investments made to accelerate and stabilize the business as quickly as possible. We remain of the view that EUR 25 million will be the full year operating impact of this disruption. Turning to slide 14, and an insight into our anticipated input cost inflation, for the year, for this year and next in our manufacturing sites. Of our total cost of sales, about 10% relates to manufacturing input costs, with the remainder attributable broadly to third-party goods for resale, labor, et cetera.
As is widely documented, inflationary pressures across the commodity complex have been a structural headwind across most manufacturing industries, and we certainly haven't been immune from that. We've managed to insulate ourselves to an extent, however, owing to our hedge positions, which we quantify as delivering about a EUR 3 million benefit in the year, that's compared to the current spot rates that we have. In total, however, we estimate that the full year impact of input cost inflation this year to be about EUR 20 million, which roughly equates to about a 20% increase year-on-year. And nearly two-thirds of that increase is derived from materials, material increase rather, material increase across sugar, cereals, and glass, where global supply chains have struggled to meet growing demand.
Next fiscal, so in FY 25, however, we project a modest softening in commodity pricing, and that's provided no further geopolitical destabilization, of course. But we do believe, along with further pricing actions, that that'll be key for us targeting branded margin expansion from FY 25 onwards. As previously mentioned, cost pressures are the primary reason branded margins have reduced over the past number of years. Turning now to Slide 15, and our net debt of just shy of EUR 190 million equates to a net debt to EBIT of 2.1, as we've said, which is marginally above our targeted range, due to the one-off ERP challenges.
Free cash flow was EUR -3.5 million in the period, as our operating cash flow absorbed sizable working capital outflows as we invested materially in stock across our depots to improve our customer service levels. We experienced higher outstanding debtor balances as well due to service levels and the associated invoicing delays. CapEx in the period comprises investment behind our ESG initiatives, as well as general site management, and investment across our depots and manufacturing sites. We're pleased to reinstate our dividend in the period, which marked the return of our progressive dividend policy and resulted in a cash outflow of EUR 14.9 million in the period. Incremental lease liabilities of EUR 18.8 million is reflective of the timing of lease renewals across primarily our distribution network.
As we've now stabilized the business, we anticipate our cash flows to be positive in the year and deliver a leverage position within our stated guidance range by year-end. Turning to the next slide, and concluding on Slide 17, with a reflection on our inherent business strengths, which provide the backdrop for our step change announcement on capital returns and distributions, hopefully provide shareholders with the certainty of value that they deserve. We believe it to currently represent the most effective use of our capital over the medium term. The last few years clearly been very challenging, and we recognize the frustrations felt, I think, across all of our stakeholders. However, we emerge from these challenges as a more stable, more secure business with clear opportunities in front of us to deliver enhanced shareholder value.
We remain excited about the future prospects of the business, the capabilities we have in executing against some significant value opportunities that we see. Our strategy remains underscored by an inherently strong business model, cash generation, and a disciplined approach to capital allocation and a focus on efficiency. It's from this position of outlook confidence that we announce our intention to distribute EUR 150 million to shareholders over the next three fiscal years, as Ralph has already outlined. That's a testament, I think, to our belief in the durability of our system strength, underpinned by our branded and distribution platforms. We are the leading distributor to the U.K. and Ireland, our Irish on-trade, and we have capacity for further growth across these geographies, which we're selectively targeting now that our GB business has stabilized service levels.
Growth opportunities to gain profitable market share that don't necessarily require significant cash outlays. Again, a reminder, in particular, our distribution business is asset light and in normal times has a high return on capital employed. On a steady state, we continue to target our operating margin 4% for our distribution business, a level that we recognize as appropriate, reflective of our market position. This margin level, we anticipate a return on capital employed beyond 25%, which is significantly ahead of our average cost of capital, and would improve our overall group return on capital employed to provide sustainable value creation. We believe that distributing dividends and other capital returns to shareholders represents the most effective use of our capital currently, with our own share price an important benchmark for all capital allocation decisions. Thank you very much. And, Ralph?
Yeah. So, thank you, Paddy. That concludes our presentation. I think that in talking through that, Paddy has provided reassurance on the ERP implementation issues that we reported earlier. I think he's demonstrated the strength of our key brands in Tennent's and Bulmers, and also provided clarity on capital allocation, and I think we'd now like to turn the meeting over to questions.
If you would like a question over the telephone line, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. The first question comes from Laurence Whyatt of Barclays.
Morning, Ralph. Morning, Paddy. Thanks very much for the questions. A couple from me, if that's okay. Just firstly, on your guidance - well, not guidance, but it's where the consensus expectations are. We're currently looking for around just under EUR 60 million profit for this year. But just sort of breaking out how historically your first half and second half have worked out, and of course, the first half this year has had the ERP implementation impact, taking EUR 22 million off first half and EUR 25 million off for the year?
... You would normally expect the second half then to be quite a substantially bit ahead of where current consensus levels are. Just wondering if you are comfortable with the current level of consensus, and I suppose putting this another way, where do you see the key risks in the second half of the year? That means that the second half of the year is going to be slightly below where historically those numbers have been. And then my second question is around the down trading that you're potentially seeing. Just wondering how you would characterize the current U.K. consumer? We can see clearly from slide five that you're seeing cider and beer continue to take share from spirits. Do you think that is to do with down trading?
Certainly within the beer categories or within the spirits categories, are you seeing people selecting lower value products as a preference at the moment? Has that changed in recent months? Thank you very much.
Maybe I'll try to take both of them, and Ralph might chime in with a view on the U.K. consumer. Look, I think, you know, we're clearly aware of where consensus is, Laurence, and as much as we don't have guidance out there, I think, yeah, we're aware of where consensus is. I think it is difficult to look at the norms of our historic sort of H1, H2 split. Clearly, we've got the EUR 22 million impacting H1. We've got EUR 3 million probably to impact H2 as well. So I think that's one thing that's different to the historic norms.
Clearly we're in rebuilding mode as well around IFT, and even though our net revenues and distribution in GB were only down 4%, we still see that we have a way to go in regaining some of those IFT customers. That doesn't happen at the flick of a switch from the September 1st, so I think that's a build into the year. I think probably the most significant change, though, in H2 versus an historic sort of a run rate trend, is probably the uncertainty around rail strikes and the impact that would have on an all-important Christmas trading period for us.
You'll be aware of just how important November, December is to the trade, and I think that the last couple of years have provided some anomalous outcomes that maybe don't speak to the historic H1, H2 split. So I think we're aware of all of those things. I think they're largely assumed in an analyst consensus, and we probably think that that's the right place to be. I think on the second point, around down trading and maybe U.K. consumer, yeah, I think, look, there clearly is evidence of down trading. We see it probably in outlet typology. We see that maybe... Well, the Rugby World Cup was better for pubs than it was for restaurants.
I think, you know, we have seen over the last few years, probably people trading down from high-end restaurants into maybe gastro pubs, from gastro pubs into wet-led pubs. So I do recognize the down trading piece that you see, that you speak to, and it's very clear, I think, when you look at spirits and cocktails performance. Wine, up until recently, had been declining as well, and I would attribute that to consumers seeking maybe better value. One point to call out is around premiumization, because we continue to see within categories and within beer in particular and cider, we're continuing to see premiumization. And, you know, pleasingly, our volumes for our premium brands were up 23%.
I think you compare that to maybe some of the other big brewers that had results out this week, that's definitely looks like our performance. So I think we're still seeing premium growth within categories, but, but yeah, I do recognize that the down trading is a feature.
Yeah, I think that's right. The fact is, the U.K. consumer is clearly—there's still fragility around that, and Paddy is correct. There's been trading into the pub sector has generally been performing pretty well in the mainstream part of the market. In terms of brands, that shift has been into premium and into recognized brands, and that I think has benefited us because that's really where we sit. Tennent's seems to be able to span premium and mainstream, which is quite an unusual thing for a brand to be able to do, but it is an extraordinary brand. And Bulmers, clearly a well-recognized brand in the Irish market, and those two brands have done relatively well.
I think there are other consequences of market, of share changes which also benefit us. Changes in sort of ranges of wines and spirits means that we've been able to consolidate brands and reduce SKUs, which has been helpful to our, our overall efficiency. So those are some other points I'd add to that.
Very good.
That's all really clear. Thank you very much.
Next question comes from Patrick Higgins of Goodbody.
Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I just want to kind of focus on the Irish business and I guess firstly, Bulmers, you know, volumes down almost 8%. How much do you put that down to, you know, elasticity, demand versus poor weather or maybe just, you know, changing, you know, consumer preferences towards stout and beer? And then the second question on Ireland is just around the branded volumes down, you know, just 4.4%, despite Bulmers down 8%. Could you just speak about the balancing items within that branded performance? Clearly, you know, some good offsetting performance in some of the premium brands, so interested to hear more detail on that, please.
... Yeah, well, look, yeah, I'll answer the second one first, and I think you're dead right. I think we've done a really solid job with building out the portfolio around Bulmers. I mean, Bulmers is very much the anchor brand, and that we've got in Ireland. About 50% of our gross profit in Ireland still gets generated by Bulmers, but creating a portfolio around it is something that's been a big focus for the Irish team. I think they've done a really good job there. We know, speaking to your first point, I think we know that cider, in particular, does tend to trade with weather, so it's more impacted by weather than most other categories.
I think that's probably a little bit of a feature in what we're seeing in the volumes here, Patrick. That's not to say that weather was universally terrible this year. I don't think it was. But the big, big months of July and August clearly were disappointing weather-wise, and I think that that does provide a little bit of the headwind that we see on volumes. I think, look, we've taken some price action as well, as we've needed to protect margin, to remain competitive. And that undoubtedly has had an impact on volume to some extent also. I think we're not alone there, and I think the longer term trend away from weather and away from pricing is pressure on volumes. And I think you're gonna continue to see that.
Where growth will come is in price and mix management in particular. So revenue growth, maybe not so much volume growth. But look, as we know, when it's good weather in Ireland, Bulmers reacts very, very positively to that. So I think that's undoubtedly a feature. Yeah.
That's great. Thank you. Our next question is from Cathal Kenny of Davy Research.
Morning, all. Thanks for taking my questions. Couple of questions. Firstly, on the distribution business in GB. Clearly, a very strong volume performance in the context of lost customers on the IFT site. Is there... Will it be possible to get some color on that, please, in terms of just the makeup of that volume print? Another volume-related question, obviously, Tennent's was exceptionally strong in the period from a volumetric perspective. Perhaps you might help. Maybe I'm trying to bridge that between the Bulmers performance. Is there a beer category phenomenon, or is there an investment factor there around the brand piece in Scotland? And my final question then is on just the brand investment, just your outlook for the remainder of the year and into next year.
Slightly related to that, just in terms of your nice slide, in terms of input cost on slide 14, how should we think about pricing and your pricing strategy over the next 12-18 months? Thank you.
Very good. Very good. Look, a few things in there, and if the first one, yeah, distribution in GB, and I think we were very, very pleased that revenues in GB were only down 4%, volumes flat. There is quite a bit going on underneath that. We see quite a bit of mix is the long and the short answer. Cathal, I think we're selling more beer, and big customers like Admiral Taverns have come online for us. That's changed the composition, that's underpinned, I think, our volume performance, our revenue performance as well. That is clearly a large customer. That's what we would describe as a managed customer. So we're still seeing growth in that part of our customer base.
I think the IFT piece, as we've talked about before, you know, we have, we've lost a little bit more in IFT, clearly on the back of the ERP issues. I think regaining those customers will be a big priority in getting the balance right between IFT customers and the managed customers remains a priority. But certainly, what you're seeing in the resilient volume performance and a good net revenue outcome is very much evidence of our strength in managed. Like I said, it does have a knock-on impact into margins, which over time we can rightsize the business to reflect our customer base. But mix is, like I said, the sort of the long and the short answer there.
I think the second one, Tennent's, you're absolutely right, and look, it's linked to to Paddy Higgins' point. Bulmers is more susceptible to weather. I think cider as a category, maybe is less of a beneficiary of, consumers trading out of other categories. I think it's, it's more, it's more obvious to trade out of another category into lager, and I think that's to Tennent's benefit. So yeah, to some extent, I think the beer category lends itself to that trading, performance. You're absolutely right, though. We have been investing behind Tennent's as we've been investing behind Bulmers, consistently for the last, for the last period. And undoubtedly, those two brands and their market-leading positions, do react well, to a bit of marketing investment.
But the Tennent's performance, I agree with you, very, very strong, and to Ralph's point, has benefited from both, it feels like both premiumization and trading down from other categories. I think the way to think about DBM going forward... Well, the half year, our investment was just shy of 10% of net revenue or net branded revenue. I think that will moderate normally, as it always does, I think, in the second half, so it'll be a little bit lower in the second half. And I think going forward, look, we want to maintain healthy levels of investment. I think we've seen how our brands react, what happens particularly for the big two brands, gaining market share, achieving absolute growth, and importantly, for those brands, growing absolute operating profit. So I think we'll continue to maintain...
Yeah, we'll continue to maintain a healthy level of investment. It won't go above 10%, but I think maybe for those brands, it doesn't need to. In terms of input costs and, yeah, I mean, you know, we were regularly asked, when do we see that softening? Is there any relief on the horizon? So as soon as we have seen it, we're highlighting it here, and that should come in the second half of next year. I don't see that as, you know, job done.
I think the onus is still on us to value engineer our products to make sure that we're as efficient as possible, and of course, look at price and mixed management and category management, as we do, mindful of the environment we're in, and certainly mindful of the fact that our margins, our branded margins that we're currently enjoying and appear to have stabilized, are a long way off where we would like them to be and where they have been historically. So I think pricing actions, along with an array of other operational efficiencies that we can bring, I think will be part of future conversations. Yes.
Thank you. Appreciate the detail.
Once again, if you do have a question, please press Star one. The next question comes from Ashton Olds of Redburn Atlantic. Ashton Olds, your line is open. Because we have lost Ashton, I'll move on to Damian McNeela of Numis. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everybody. My line cut out, so apologies. Can you just clarify that the question was that marketing spend was 10% in the first half, and it's likely to remain at that level? Just to clear that one up. And then I'm not sure if anybody's asked this one, but given the comments around the benefits of the ERP system being in place now in GB distribution, should we expect margins within distribution to be back to 4% in the next couple of years, or is there scope for that to be higher than that? And then the last question, just on winning back those IFT customers.
Can you point to any sort of specific tactics or strategies that you're likely to employ in the coming months to help win those customers back, please?
Yeah, very good. Very good. Yeah, thanks, Damian. Yeah, so DBM, reinvestment or DBM as a percentage of, net, net revenue for brands was 9.8% in the first half, and I think... No, it'll, it'll moderate a little bit in the second half. We tend to front weight our investment and, you know, for cider, that's, that's, hopefully pretty understandable. So no, I think it'll be lower than that, and I think going forward, we'll maintain healthy levels of investment, but it won't be, it's unlikely to be as high as 10%. I think on the second point around, the, the 4% steady state target that we've got for margins in our distribution business, no, it feels like 4% is, is the, is the right level.
I know we hit 4% in the first half last year before some of our issues. I think, look, we have to be mindful of the mix issues that I mentioned when I was answering Cathal's point on right-sizing the business to reflect the opportunity. But certainly, you know, over the steady state, the medium term, the next couple of years, 4% is our target. And we hit that, and we stabilize at that, and then we'll see what the opportunity and the landscape looks like. But I'm not thinking much beyond 4% right now. In terms of IFT customers and how we go about winning them, look, it's a lot about service. It's a lot about rebuilding our reputation first and foremost.
You know, and I think we're doing a good job there. Again, it doesn't, it doesn't change with the flick of a switch on the September 1st, and you know, us confirming to customers that our OTIF levels are back to kind of our medium-term historic norms. You know, they need proof, and that proof takes a bit of time to build. So I think service is the number one. I think maintaining a solid range on an industry-leading range, I think is a really important aspect of this as well, and that's something that we're very careful to do to make sure that our offer is the largest offer available. Then clearly, pricing. You know, we're scale...
We have scale that others don't. That should allow us to always be competitive on pricing, and that'll be a feature in the run-up to Christmas, no doubt as well. Our ability to provide credit also is a bit of a standout. So I think there's a number of factors there that combine to make us a compelling partner for IFT customers over the next few months. So, yeah.
Okay. Thanks very much, Paddy.
We have no further telephone questions at this time.
Okay, I think, look, we have one question that came through the web, and it's from Robert Merchant. And he wants us to talk a little bit about Ritz, the product and the brand, and would it be worth relaunching that fabulous alcoholic drink? So Robert's obviously a fan of Ritz, and so are we. Ritz is one of our iconic, and I'll call it historic, just because it's been around a very long time, one of our great perries. Tends to sell very, very well, Robert, as you know, around Waterford and the Munster region, and it's very much part of our portfolio. We don't currently have plans to do a national relaunch, but it is...
Look, it's an important part of the portfolio, and, and I'm glad, I'm glad you like it, Robert.
But you're not, Paddy, inviting anybody to change estimates on the back of Ritz plans?
No, no.
- is the message I'm getting?
Yeah, I think that's right.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Okay, well, if there are no further questions, thank you very much, everybody, and good morning to you.