Chemring Group PLC (LON:CHG)
London flag London · Delayed Price · Currency is GBP · Price in GBX
525.00
-6.50 (-1.22%)
Apr 28, 2026, 4:41 PM GMT
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: H2 2023

Dec 12, 2023

Michael Ord
CEO, Chemring Group

Good morning, and welcome to the presentation of Chemring's results for the full year to the 31st of October, 2023. I am, as usual, joined by Andrew Lewis, our Chief Financial Officer. I will provide a brief overview of the group's highlights for the year. Andrew will then take you through the financial results, and I'll then comment on the progress we've made this year and the areas where we are targeting for further growth in FY 2024 and beyond. We have delivered good performance across the group throughout FY 2023, with heightened activity across both sectors, and we've worked hard to adapt to changing customer priorities and the unprecedented growth in demand for certain products.

The group has again delivered a robust performance that exceeded the expectations we held at the beginning of the year, and our commitment to sustainable value creation through safe and ethical business conduct has ensured that we have reliably met our customers' critical needs. None of this would be possible without the commitment and dedication of our people, and I want to acknowledge and thank them for their professionalism and hard work. Their efforts delivered excellent operational and financial results, with revenues up 18% to GBP 473 million, and operating profit up 16% to GBP 69.2 million. Earnings per share was up 8% to GBP 0.20, resulting in the board recommending a final dividend of GBP 0.046 per share.

With the interim dividend of GBP 0.023 per share, this results in a total dividend of GBP 0.069 per share, an increase of 21% on the prior year. Order intake for FY 2023 was exceptionally strong, up 37% to GBP 756 million, with resurgent demand for traditional defense capabilities, driving very strong demand in our niche energetics businesses, where order intake was up 161% to GBP 358 million. The group order book at the end of October was up 42% to GBP 922 million, providing excellent visibility for the near term, and with 79% of FY 2024 expected revenue covered by the order book. The board's expectations for FY 2024 performance are unchanged. That concludes my overview.

I'll now hand over to Andrew, who'll take you through the financial results.

Andrew Lewis
CFO, Chemring Group

Thanks, Mick, and good morning, everyone. This year's results are slightly ahead of initial expectations, driven by strong performance in our niche energetics businesses and another outstanding year at Roke. However, the real highlight has been the level of order intake and the closing order book. Following the escalation in geopolitical tensions of a year ago, orders to ensure governments are adequately stocked with traditional defense capabilities began to flow this year. This supports our decision to invest in CapEx, in increasing capacity in our energetics businesses, and to continue to invest in OpEx in Roke to support the three to five-year growth plans in both areas. The graph on the top left of the slide shows the exceptionally strong order intake we've seen in 2023, a record at GBP 756 million.

Countermeasures and energetics order intake was up 52% to GBP 541 million, driven by strong demand for our niche energetics products. In Sensors and Information, demand for Roke's range of capabilities saw its order intake up 9% to GBP 183 million. Moving to this year's results and the key facts and figures. Revenue was GBP 473 million, which was up 18%. Operating profit increased 16% to GBP 69.2 million. Our operating margin was stable at 14.6%, reflecting the slightly richer mix of higher-margin energetics business in Countermeasures and Energetics, and the continued operating expense investment in Roke. Diluted EPS was up 8% to 20p, as the positive impact of operating profit growth was partially offset by a higher group effective tax rate.

Operating cash conversion was 90% of EBITDA, and rolling 36-month cash conversion is 101%, showing that through the cycle, the business has maintained strong cash generation. The closing order book is GBP 922 million, the highest it's been in over a decade. Of this, GBP 403 million is expected to be delivered in 2024, which covers 79% of expected revenue. The revenue and profit bridges show the key drivers of the group's results this year. As a reminder of what we announced in early November, the Explosive Hazard Detection business, which you will know as the HMDS program of record, has been treated as discontinued under IFRS 5 in 2023, and as a result, all 2022 comparatives have been represented. A full reconciliation of this is provided in an appendix.

All 2022 Sensors and Information and group numbers in this presentation reflect the represented amounts. So turning to the revenue bridge, Sensors and Information was positively impacted by strong market conditions and excellent execution at Roke, and the first full year of full rate production deliveries under the EMBD program of record. Revenue and Countermeasures and Energetics saw a modest increase in the year, with the niche energetics businesses stronger, offset by lower U.S. countermeasures revenue. At an operating profit level, in Sensors and Information, we saw strong growth in the Roke products and services business, where revenue growth dropped through to operating profit as expected. This was offset by the impact of the continued discretionary operating expense investment in the Roke Academy and Roke's graduate and apprentice programs....

In US Sensors, there was a first full-year contribution from the EMBD full-rate production, and in Countermeasures and Energetics, operating profit increased at a slightly higher rate than revenue, reflecting the richer mix of higher-margin energetics business in 2023. Further details on both segments follow in the later slides. Foreign exchange rates have remained volatile in the year, and overall, we've seen a strengthening of sterling against our basket of currencies, which has provided a translation headwind of GBP 2.5 million at an operating profit level. Our forward guidance is based on $1.25 USD, AUD 1.90, and 13 NOK. Detailed segmental constant currency information is provided in an appendix.

Moving to the segmental results and starting with Sensors and Information, the results show revenue up 55% to GBP 187 million, and operating profit up 35% to GBP 34.2 million, reflecting the strong year at Roke, which delivered another year of significant growth and high margins. As shown by the graph on the right, Roke's information security and data science business, operating primarily in the U.K. national security and defense markets, has an impressive growth track record over the last four years. To position Roke well for ongoing future growth, we are ensuring we continue to invest. In the second half of 2022, we established the Roke Academy and committed to expanding Roke's graduate and apprentice schemes. The circa GBP 2 million pound cost seen in the second half of 2022 was replicated in 2023, as we now see the full-year effect.

Our ambition is for Roke to achieve GBP 200 million of revenue by 2025 and GBP 250 million by 2028. In our US Sensors business, a first full year of deliveries under the full rate production contract for EMBD was successfully achieved, and a further delivery order for $15 million was received under the $99 million six-year framework contract, which secures expected volumes for the third year. In September, we received a positive decision on the JBTDS program of record, which moves it into low-rate initial production in 2024, with an expected transition to full-rate production in late 2025. We would expect a full-year revenue effect in 2026, when full-rate production volumes could be approximately $40 million per annum.

Given there have been a number of moving parts in Sensors and Information in the year, I thought it might be useful to provide a further breakdown of what's happened in the form of detailed revenue and operating profit bridges. The key takeaways being: Roke products and services revenue was up 36%. Roke revenue included GBP 16 million of incremental pass-through revenue, with no margin associated with it. Pass-through revenue now totals GBP 32 million, which represents 20% of Roke revenue. This diluted the segmental margin in Sensors and Information, which, adjusting for this, would have been 22%. Going forward, as Roke primes more contracts, we see pass-through revenue increasing in line with Roke's top-line revenue growth, therefore, maintain our segment margin guidance of mid- to high-teens % for Sensors and Information over the medium term.

For our US Sensors business, the growth reflected the first full year of full-rate production of the EMBD program of record. Beyond 2023, as potential full-rate production contracts for JBTDS ramps up in 2026, revenue in the US Sensors business could return to previous levels of approximately GBP 50 million per annum. Moving on to Countermeasures and Energetics. Revenue was up 2% to GBP 286 million, and operating profit up 3% to GBP 50.5 million. Favorable market conditions for our niche energetics businesses underpin the group's strategic decision to approve a three-year, GBP 120 million investment to increase capacity by GBP 85 million per annum from 2027. The development of the Countermeasures and Energetics order book over the last five years is shown on the graph, the bottom right-hand side of the slide, which shows the significant growth in the last two years.

The closing order book is GBP 751 million, with expected 2024 revenue for Countermeasures and Energetics 90% covered by the order book at year-end, which leaves significant order cover in place for 2025 and beyond, providing excellent future visibility. This slide breaks out the movement in Countermeasures and Energetics. The energetics businesses responded to increased customer demand, with strong operational execution, driving a 26% increase in revenue. But with order intake up 161%, there is clearly the need to invest in capacity to satisfy long-term demand. The Countermeasures business was slightly weaker in 2023, reflecting the timing of some shipments and the slower-than-expected ramp-up of the new facility in Tennessee. But with an order book of GBP 343 million, representing approximately 2 years' revenue, visibility in Countermeasures remains good.

Energy prices were higher than the comparative year, as elevated costs continued from the second half of 2022 into fixed-price contracts in 2023. As energy prices have eased in the second half of 2023, we do not expect to see any further increases in 2024. The cash flow shows the group's net debt at the end of the year at GBP 14 million. The operating cash conversion ratio in the year was 90% of EBITDA. Across the last 36 months, operating cash conversion has been 101% of EBITDA, demonstrating the sustainable improvement in business practices through the cycle. Turning to non-trading items in the year. CapEx at GBP 34 million was focused on our sites in Scotland, Norway, and at Roke.

Purchase of our own shares was GBP 13 million, as the first quarter of the share buyback program announced on the first of August was successfully executed. Dividends totaled GBP 17 million, a 20% increase on 2022. Mick will speak in more detail of the plan to add capacity in our three niche energetics businesses over the next three years, and as a result, we expect CapEx to remain at elevated levels through to 2026. With net debt of GBP 14 million at year-end, a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.2x, and banking facilities of GBP 150 million in place, the group is in good financial health and positioned well to continue to invest for growth. This slide gives a graphical representation of the cash we've generated in the year and how we've deployed it.

The key takeaways are the investment of GBP 41 million in CapEx and acquisitions, and the GBP 30 million of returns to shareholders was self-funded in the year by operating cash generation. It's now 5 years since we set out our strategy to deliver a higher quality business, so I'd like to summarize the financial progress we've made in that time. Our focus has been on building a financially sustainable and robust group. We've achieved our margin objective of a mid-teens group margin and have achieved 104% cash conversion across the 5-year period. This has allowed us to invest. CapEx at GBP 184 million has run ahead of depreciation at GBP 93 million, and despite this high level of investment, we've been able to significantly reduce debt and return GBP 73 million to shareholders.

Together with the operational and financial progress we've made over the last five years, we've also focused on retiring risks that could impact the group in the future. The legacy defined benefit pension scheme was one such risk, and five years ago, the buyout deficit was approximately GBP 50 million. A refocused investment strategy virtually eliminated that deficit, and the group and the trustees took advantage of favorable market conditions to secure a buy-in, buy-out transaction in November this year. This removes future risk from the group as the assets and liabilities have been assumed by the insurer. The group made a cash contribution of GBP 1.6 million on completion and agreed potential further contributions of up to GBP 3 million over the next two years, contingent on the final results of the member transfer exercise.

The IAS 19 surplus of GBP 6 million, which was in the balance sheet at the 31st of October, will now be de-recognized. Finally, looking at the order book. At a group level, order intake was up 37% to GBP 756 million, and the closing order book was a record GBP 922 million, with GBP 403 million expected to be delivered in 2024, giving 79% cover of expected revenue. In both segments, strong long-term customer relationships, sole source or market-leading positions, underpinned by significant product IP, has enabled us to capture significant customer demand as market dynamics have changed. Turning to each segment and starting with Sensors and Information. Order intake was up 10%, reflecting the strong year at Roke, which continues to benefit from increasing demand and, importantly, funding from its national security and defense customers.

The order book in this segment tends to be shorter cycle, and of the GBP 171 million order book, GBP 122 million is expected to be delivered in 2024, giving 61% cover of expected revenue. In Countermeasures and Energetics, order intake was up 52% to GBP 541 million, reflecting the strong order intake in our niche energetics businesses, which was up 161% to GBP 358 million. Of the closing order book of GBP 751 million, GBP 281 million is for delivery in 2024, giving 90% cover of expected revenue. Looking beyond 2024 in Countermeasures and Energetics, 2025 is already 71% covered, and 2026, 65% covered, giving unprecedented out-year visibility. With that, it's time for me to declare my innings closed.

But before I call over and time, I'd like to take the opportunity to thank the analysts, fund managers, and shareholders who've supported me over the last 15 years, as well as the fantastic teams I've worked with at both Avon and Chemring. So that's it. Over and time. I'll hand you back to Mick. Thank you.

Michael Ord
CEO, Chemring Group

Thank you, Andrew, and thanks for a great innings, and best wishes for the future. I'll now look at the broader market and how our strategy is aligned with current and future trends, and also some of the exciting opportunities we are seeking to capture. Whether it's the Israel-Hamas conflict threatening Middle East stability or the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict in Eastern Europe, the geopolitical turbulence we are experiencing has resulted in many countries reassessing their defense and national security priorities and associated budgets. The Russia-Ukraine conflict refocused attention on the broad spectrum of defense capabilities relevant to a significant peer conflict, and it has brought a renewed focus on modernization and replacement of NATO capabilities.

In the Asia-Pacific, increased competition with China is driving a significant US defense modernization program, and the US continues to be the world's largest defense and security market and remains a target for the group's development and growth. Against this heightened threat environment, the group's diverse and niche technologies and capabilities make it well-placed to support our customers' critical needs.... Customers are evaluating their operational usage assumptions and stockpile requirements, and simultaneously investing in technology-driven solutions, including digital capabilities such as active cyber defense, electronic warfare, and open source intelligence. These changes in budget priorities present significant opportunities for our businesses in Norway, Scotland, Chicago, and also at Roke.

Against this market backdrop, our strategy for FY 2024 and beyond is the continued delivery of sustainable, profitable growth by operating in markets where the group has built solid competitive differentiators, such as unique intellectual property, niche technology, high barriers to entry, and long-term customer relationships. We will continue to focus on building a safe and resilient business that delivers shareholder returns through continuous improvement in operational and financial performance. Central to this is our continued commitment to invest in increasing the capacity of our three energetics businesses to meet the unprecedented levels of demand, which we expect to be maintained for at least the next decade. Where appropriate, we will seek to accelerate growth with targeted bolt-on acquisitions, primarily focused on our Roke business and in the U.S. space and missiles market served by our business in Chicago.

However, as always, the group will maintain its disciplined approach to capital allocation. Our overall strategic goal remains to balance the delivery of near-term operational and financial performance with longer term growth and value creation. Demand for propellants, energetic materials, and mission-critical components for use in aerospace, space launch, missile, and munition systems continues to grow, with many governments and customers seeking to increase the capacity and resilience of industrial supply chains. As a result, our three energetics businesses have experienced strong customer demand, with order intake up 161% to GBP 358 million. We are increasingly securing longer term contracts as customers seek to secure their position in our production schedules, providing the group with improved medium-term visibility for planning and investment decisions.

In June, we announced a 3-year, GBP 90 million capital investment program to add significant capacity to our three energetics businesses, while also improving process safety and increasing the use of automation. In November, in response to continued market demand, we announced a further GBP 30 million investment in our Norwegian business to increase capacity even further. The total investment over the next three years in increasing capacity of the group's three energetics businesses is expected to be circa GBP 120 million, which will generate increased revenue of circa GBP 85 million and increased operating profit of circa GBP 21 million. Turning now to Roke, where the successful execution of its strategy has seen the business double in size over the past five years.

Markets for electronic warfare, active cyber defense, and data science capabilities remain extremely buoyant, and Roke has again delivered strong growth in orders, revenue, and operating profit, and has maintained margin performance despite increased investment in people, infrastructure, and product development. The U.K. government's Integrated Review Refresh, published in March, focused on the U.K.'s ability to deter, defend, and compete across all domains, and notably in the areas of cyber, information advantage, and the digitalization of defense, all of which are aligned with Roke's core capabilities. We therefore expect demand for Roke's market-leading products and services to further increase. A good illustration of Roke's increased ambition is the U.K. MOD's GBP 40 million Zodiac program, which Roke won in September. Zodiac is the backbone of the British Army's Land ISTAR program, which will deliver technologies and capabilities to transform how the army undertakes data-led decision making.

Roke is the prime systems integrator on this advanced technology program, supported by a supply chain comprising of some of the U.K.'s leading technology companies. Beyond growing and scaling existing areas of business, Roke will continue to invest in research and development and product development to maintain unique mission relevance for their customers. The group will continue to invest in the Roke business, including expanding the business's U.K. geographic footprint to both follow the mission with clients and access new pools of talent. In parallel, we will seek to supplement Roke's organic growth with bolt-on acquisitions, with the business having a very robust pipeline of candidates. This time last year, we said our five-year goal was to continue to grow Roke and organically increase annual revenue to greater than GBP 200 million.

In June, we raised that goal and remain on track to grow revenue to a minimum of GBP 250 million per annum by 2028, while still maintaining strong margins. Turning now to our U.S. Sensors business. Following the U.S. DoD's decision to curtail the production phase of HMDS and transition the program to sustainment earlier than originally planned, we have concluded that it is not economically viable for the group to continue to operate in this niche program. The group has also determined it is no longer probable that it will proceed to the next phase of the competitive AVCAD program. As a result of these significant decisions and following a strategic review of our U.S. Sensors business,... We have concluded that a focus on biological detection and biological security markets presents the best opportunity to maintain strong margins and deliver growth.

Beyond our sole source, U.S. DoD biological detection programs of record, both of which are now in production phases, we have a strong platform for which to pursue opportunities in existing and adjacent markets, such as homeland security. In an increasingly contested world, advances in synthetic biology give our adversaries the capability to engineer organisms to create hazards and cause harm. This is an area of growing concern to our customers. Indeed, at the Artificial Intelligence Conference that took place at Bletchley Park last month, a number of leading scientists and politicians highlighted the growing risk of AI-formulated bioweapons. In response to this changing threat environment, and under development funding from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office, we are currently designing and testing advanced biological sensor systems.

The group moved quickly and decisively to reposition and reshape our US sensors business to ensure sustainable competitive advantage in our targeted biological detection and biological security markets. Significant progress continues to be made in our sole source biological detection programs of record. In the JBTDS program, the system cleared the DoD's Milestone C procurement decision, and in September, the business received a low-rate initial production contract valued at $15 million. Hardware deliveries under this contract will be made over the next 10-14 months, with a full rate production contract expected to be awarded thereafter. With both JBTDS and EMBD now in production phases, I thought it might be helpful to outline our expectations around the timing and phasing of revenues associated with these programs.

However, I should stress these values are based on our current understanding of program timings and quantities and are therefore only indicative, and as always, the customer reserves the right to alter their plans. In FY 2023, US Sensors revenue represented the EMBD program in its first full year of full rate production. We expect this program to generate steady revenue over the next 5 years as FRP orders are delivered. We see a step change in revenue in FY 2024, and more significantly in FY 2026, as deliveries on the JBTDS LRIP award begin next year, and FRP revenue is expected to commence in FY 2026. By FY 2027, the business is expected to be generating circa GBP 60 million of revenue at mid-teens operating profit margins.

So in summary, FY 2023 was a year in which we made solid progress as we continue to build a strong, high-quality technology and manufacturing business. The outlook for global defense markets is increasingly robust, with strong growth predicted over the next decade. This growing visibility gives us the confidence to continue to invest for the future, balancing short-term operational financial performance with longer-term growth and value creation. We will continue to grow the group by focusing on our strategic imperatives of investing to meet evolving customer demands in energetics, continuing to grow our Roke business, and accelerating growth with bolt-on acquisitions while maintaining our capital allocation disciplines.

The group's order book at the end of October was GBP 922 million, of which GBP 403 million is expected to be recognized as revenue in FY 2024, providing the group with 79% order cover and excellent visibility for the full year. The current year has started well, with trading in line with plan, and therefore, the board's expectations for FY 2024 remain unchanged. Finally, I'd like to note that this is Andrew Lewis's final set of results here at Chemring. Andrew joined the group in January 2017, has been a key member of the executive team and a valued colleague during a period when the group has undergone significant change. His transformation of the group's finances has placed it in a strong position to take advantage of the many growth opportunities we have available to us.

I'd like to thank him for his contribution to Chemring's success and wish him every success in the future. So that concludes the presentation. If you do have any questions, please do get in touch with us, either directly or through our advisors. We look forward to speaking to you again at the half year results in June, when I will be joined by our new CFO, James Mortensen. But in the meantime, stay safe, stay well, and thanks for joining us.

Powered by