Well, good morning, everybody, and welcome to Capricorn's results presentation. I'm Simon Thomson, Chief Executive. With me are James Smith, CFO, and Eric Hathon, Exploration Director. Also, not because we've fallen out, but because he's got COVID, joining us on the screen is Paul Mayland, COO. As in the usual way, we've got a presentation to run through with you this morning, and we'd be happy to take questions at the end. It is being webcast, so if you have a question, please state your name before asking. In case of fire alarm, the exits are there and there. Okay. Moving on to the presentation. Eight years ago, the Indian government froze our assets and removed $1 billion of assets from our balance sheet.
It's been a long, hard road, but I'm very happy to be standing in front of you today with that issue finally resolved, allowing us to move forward with our strategic delivery. Quite rightly, shareholders ask us now, what will Capricorn be going forward? Well, fundamentally, there's two characteristics that are unchanged and two that are quite new. First of all, the familiar. We'll continue to seek opportunities that allow us to capture and realize value for shareholders and give us the ability to generate further returns. Secondly, we will continue to do that with a combination of speed, but also patience. Speed where matters are within our operational or strategic control, and patience, as demonstrated by India, when it is required. What are we new?
Well, first of all, technically, we will increasingly focus on short-cycle returns, and commercially, we will seek those returns from a more limited number of jurisdictions. Secondly, we will look to secure, create, or add to lower carbon barrels in our operations. Paul will talk about how we are doing that in Egypt. Wherever we operate, we will seek to contribute in that manner to achieve the common objective of energy security, affordability, and reduced carbon emissions. What does that mean in practice? Well, first of all, it means that our strategic delivery will be ever more focused on disciplined allocation of capital between further investment and further returns.
If you look at this slide from left to right, and first of all, on the bottom left there, we will continue with what has been a transformation of the portfolio. Last year, obviously, saw the exit from the U.K. and the entry into Egypt. We intend to continue with the portfolio transformation, and there will be an increased emphasis, as we've seen in Egypt actually, in our assessment of local and regional demand and underlying regulatory and fiscal support in every jurisdiction that we are assessing. Secondly, given supply and demand forecasts, given commodity prices, we continue to believe there is a strong rationale for capital allocation towards exploration activity. In our case, as I said, that will be increasingly focused on short-cycle returns, with the focus on Egypt and the U.K.
We still retain option value in terms of our frontier acreage, principally in Mauritania and Suriname, progress in which will require the entry of an aligned partner, again, in relation to that capital discipline point. Sustainable cashflow base. This is what we're very focused on right now. Egypt was the first step, the first of a number of steps. We're working very hard right now to add further assets into the portfolio as we seek to increase that sustainability of cashflow generation going forward. Balance sheet flexibility and shareholder returns. We will continue to focus on retaining that differentiated balance sheet flexibility, that allows us to both grow the portfolio, as I've been talking about, but also gives us the opportunity to make further material shareholder returns.
I think it's worth reflecting that, in the period since the Indian IPO, we have raised capital from shareholders once during the financial crisis in 2009 when we raised around about $160 million. In that same period, we've returned $5.5 billion to shareholders, including the current returns. I think that clearly differentiates us, and it's a track record that we will look to continue going forward. In summary, we're renewed and refocused. We offer a combination of growth and further returns from a combination of a differentiated balance sheet strength and continued fiscal discipline in everything that we look at. James.
Thank you, Simon. Morning, everyone. As you've seen, 2021 was a genuinely transformational year for the company. Transformational for our portfolio, transformational for our balance sheet, and also in terms of the differentiated positioning of Capricorn to deliver our strategy from here. At the beginning of the year, we completed the sale of the Senegalese discoveries that we've made and brought into development phase, and as a result, we're able to return over $250 million to shareholders via a special dividend. In March, we announced that we'd agreed the sale of the U.K. producing assets as they enter decline phase. That for consideration of $455 million, plus uncapped contingent consideration over five years linked to oil price and production performance.
We carry a fair value of that contingent consideration on the balance sheet of approximately $200 million based on year-end oil prices, but obviously at today's oil prices, that would be materially higher. The first installment of that contingent payment is due in the second quarter of this year in respect to 2021 and is $76 million.
At the same time in March, we announced that we'd agreed to acquire with our partner, Cheiron, the Egyptian onshore business of Shell for $330 million, bringing in on acquisition 113 mmboe of 2P reserves and 36,000 barrels of oil equivalent of production a day, with the potential to significantly grow that production and to expand the resources through development and exploration, and selling all of that into an energy-hungry and fiscally supported market.
In the summer of last year, we announced that following our success in the international arbitration case against India's retrospective tax claim and our subsequent actions to enforce that arbitration award, the government of India agreed to repeal the retrospective tax act, resulting in a tax refund to us of $1.06 billion, which was paid in February this year. That enables us to return up to a further $700 million of cash to shareholders for our tender offer and ongoing buyback program, and at the same time, retain a very strong net cash position to drive further growth and expansion in the portfolio. Something which, as I said, we believe puts us in a strongly differentiated position in the sector.
If we look at how all that translated into cash flows through the year, you can see on the left-hand side of this slide the cash movements relating to that portfolio management, the special dividend, the inflows from the disposed U.K. assets and the acquisition of Egypt, which was roughly 55% debt funded. On the right-hand side, you can see that after CapEx, admin expense and other costs, that resulted in net cash at year-end of $133 million, comprising $314 million of cash, gross cash and $181 million of debt, which was arranged for the Egypt acquisition. Now all of that is clearly prior to the receipt of the India proceeds.
If you adjust that pro forma for the India tax refund and settlement of the $500 million tender offer that we've announced, that would be $870 million of gross cash or $690 million of net cash, of which $200 million has been allocated for a buyback program over time. If we look now specifically at Egypt, through Q4 of last year, following completion of the acquisition in September, our working interest production grew by about 8%, averaging 36,500 boepd . The growth in this quarter was dominated by an increase in the liquids production. Revenues from that production were $56 million at realized sales prices of $77.8 a barrel for the liquids and $2.9/ MCF for the gas.
Liquid sales accounted for approximately 70% of revenues in the quarter. Production costs in the quarter were $22 million or $6/boe, and CapEx was $20 million. You can see it was free cash flow generative on accruals basis. For this year, we expect production to average in the range of 37,000-43,000 boepd , growing through the year with the aim to exit 2022 with production well into the 40s and above the top end of that range. CapEx to deliver that growth is forecast in the range of $90-$110 million, and we expect to drive per unit OpEx down to around about $5/boe.
You can see from the chart on the slide here, the medium-term expectations we have for growing, sustaining that production basis over the next five years. This will be from increased drilling activity in existing reserve space in the near term, as well as converting contingent resources into producing reserves from near field developments over the medium term. Paul will talk a bit more about the operational delivery of this plan, but in cash flow terms, at $60 a barrel Brent, which seems relatively cautious at today's prices, that translates into a business that delivers around $150 million of operating cash flow a year with very good visibility on sustaining that over the medium term.
Just briefly on CapEx across the rest of the group this year, which remains in line with previous guidance. In addition to the $90 million-$110 million of production and development CapEx in Egypt, we expect around $30 million of exploration CapEx, which includes the seismic acquisition and the expected drilling of two commitment wells later in the year. Outside of Egypt, across the rest of the portfolio, we have $40 million in the U.K. this year for Jaws and Diadem wells south of Nelson, as well as seismic acquisition in the newly acquired Mid- North Sea High acreage. Elsewhere, it's $30 million-$35 million of exploration expenditure, which is principally in Mexico, completing our commitment wells there. Looking at how all that positions us for delivering the future strategy.
With the acquisition of the Egypt assets, we've begun to build a strong, sustainable cash flow base with characteristics aligned to our strategy. That is low break-even production and advantageous hydrocarbon mix, located in an energy-hungry growth market, with supportive fiscal regime, with production and resource growth potential, with short capital investment cycles, and with a clear route to decarbonization. Exploration will remain an important part of the strategy, but our capital allocation there is now very much focused on infrastructure-led opportunities that are fast to commercialize and will predominantly target reserves replacement in existing core areas. As we talked about the balance sheet, following the India tax refund and the $500 million tender offer, we still retain a significant funding firepower to further build out our cash flow base through acquisition, focused on opportunities with similar characteristics to those I've just listed regarding Egypt.
Ultimately, we continue to see returning cash to shareholders as a key differentiator of Capricorn. Clearly, we're in the midst of a very significant capital return right now, but as we continue to build the business from here, we'll continue to ensure that fiscal discipline of investing for sustainable growth through the cycle, but also continuing to build opportunities to return further value to shareholders. With that, I'll hand over to Paul.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you, James. I'm sorry I'm not able to be with everyone in London. 2021 has been our fourth consecutive year of delivering production and operating costs within guidance, and one in which we have transitioned out of our existing North Sea producing assets whilst retaining significant reservoir outperformance and oil price exposure, and positioned ourselves with our first cornerstone to building a production portfolio that offers greater growth, longer life, more price resilience, and is cash generative. The Western Desert assets in Egypt acquired from Shell performed within expectations in 2021, delivering working interest average production during the full year of around 36,000 boepd , and with the natural decline arrested from completion to year-end.
I'll describe our short-term and longer-term investment plans for the assets that are expected to deliver production growth and cash generation in the coming years. In 2022, we anticipate to grow production on an annual average basis by at least 10% through successful deployment of our capital program during the year. However, as James has already mentioned, a key objective in a higher oil price environment is to prioritize liquid opportunities over volumes, and we've already increased liquids to close to 40% of the total production by the year-end. The next slide shows the net working interest production by phase and total during 2021, illustrating the increase from transaction completion, which occurred in late September of around 33,000 to 36,000 by the year-end.
Following some small revisions and reclassifications, and of course, adjusting for production in the year, our year-end reserves sit at 91 mmboe on a working interest basis, and our contingent resources across all categories have grown to around 70 mmboe . We will work together with our respective joint venture partners to optimize the exploitation plan for these reserves and resources. At the current levels of production, our reserve and resource life index is in excess of 12 years. The next slide shows a picture of one of the rigs operating in the field. In 2021, 15 new wells were drilled across the fields and concessions. Seven new producers, three new water injectors, three field extension wells, and two exploration wells in the NUMB and North Matruh concessions.
In 2022, we anticipate to drill and complete 3x-4x as many producers, 2x-3 x as many water injectors, and 1.5x-2 x as many field extension wells. We will do that by adding to the rig capacity that we inherited from Shell. A third rig was added at the start of the year, and we anticipate adding two more rigs during the first half of 2022 to allow delivery of this overall program. In addition, five workover rigs are also operating to allow lift and pump optimization and recompletion of new producing and injecting intervals in the respective reservoirs. On the facility sides, we are adding further compression, both at the BED facility, which is underway, and at Obaiyed, where it is planned.
This will allow gas recovery to be enhanced and wells to produce at lower pressures and for longer. The next slide illustrates both our ability to grow and also the importance of maintaining the producing assets. The new wells to be drilled comprise infill opportunities, targeting undrained areas of the field and areas where reserves can be produced more effectively through better sweep or depletion plans. We will also target undrilled fault blocks and other field extension opportunities, and we've already had success with this approach to date, which we will follow up in 2022.
The Western Desert offers multiple reservoir targets, and this allows more economic wells to be drilled and completed, often across two, three, or even four reservoir horizons. The key to maintaining and sustaining the production through the rest of this decade and beyond will be to maintain and enhance the facilities. In November, the operator conducted a successful plant shutdown at the BED facility, which included 24-inch export pipeline pigging, turbine change out, gas compressor servicing, and other routine planned maintenance. A similar shutdown is planned at the Obaiyed facility in the second half of this year. Moving on to the next slide. We recognize that in addition to providing vital, cost-effective, reliable energy to the host government, we must also help in the journey to reduce emissions.
A key first step is to utilize gas as a substitute to diesel for power generation. This is underway, and the plans are being extended. Additionally, we are examining the possibility of incorporating flare gas into this plan and potentially considering renewables, particularly solar, as part of the overall facilities and plant power mix. By 2025, we'd hope to see a step change in emissions reduction, reducing the level of emissions from stationary and mobile combustion and process flares. Longer term, we will also look at the feasibility of small- and large-scale CCS for deployment to aid in process emissions reductions. We'd like to commend the initial steps on this journey taken proactively by the operating company, Bapetco, who alongside Cheiron, have had fruitful discussions with our energy transition team.
We see the Western Desert assets in Egypt as a good template for other business development opportunities, ones that are within our technical, operational and commercial skill sets, and where the core infrastructure is built and has been maintained to a good standard, and where emissions improvements are meaningful and can form part of our net zero strategy. This, of course, is only possible with a supportive host government, ministry and joint venture partners whom we will continue to work with to deliver value for our respective stakeholders. In order to deliver value, we have to both sustain the production and grow the reserves, both within the fields themselves and the surrounding exploration, which Eric will now talk you through.
Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. In exploration at Capricorn, our primary focus is on our ongoing infrastructure-led exploration, or ILX programs, in Egypt and the U.K. As Simon and James both said, ILX is a good fit to our advantaged resources criteria because we are in proven basins, and when a commercial discovery is made, we can get it online more quickly than in frontier or emerging basins. Volumes are often smaller, but so is the minimum field size needed. An NPV per barrel is attractive due to the shorter cycle time. In our plays in emerging basins like Mauritania and Suriname, where we're in the first phase of exploration ahead of any well commitments, it's the potential volumes we see which drive value, along with phase developments which can optimize cycle time. We continue to mature our exploration portfolio in the Western Desert, as Paul mentioned.
We're in continual collaboration with our JV partner, and we have resourced our in-country exploration team with folks who have significant experience in the Western Desert. As we collaborate and grow our knowledge base, we see multiple exploration themes emerging. In the producing assets, we see two. Near field exploration wells targeting intervals proven in nearby fields, such as the Al Assil C-106 well, which is drilling right now in the Alam El Shawish concession. It's a Cretaceous oil target in a separate fault block, but adjacent to the Al Assil field, which also produces from the Cretaceous. Success here would allow it to be online and producing in a matter of months. The other theme is new play concepts, which are not currently producing, but which show significant promise based upon historical activity, better data, and new interpretations.
These include various carbonate plays, stratigraphic sand plays, deeper tests, and even unconventional type potential. Given they're in and around producing fields, success in any of these could drive outsized value. In our exploration concessions, we have begun by maturing the typical targets which produce in offset fields. Now, given the maturity of these areas, volumes are modest, but low cost and proximity to infrastructure keep commerciality thresholds low. We're also working to map deeper targets in the Jurassic and even the Paleozoic, which are overall much less explored but have seen recent success. This is where the new broadband 3D seismic we will be acquiring will be especially helpful. Now, on slide 21, you can see our exploration timeline out to 2024, including our well and seismic acquisition campaigns.
In aggregate, we're targeting over 100 mmboe gross unrisked in our first 10 wells, with roughly $30 million of gross well capital. Overall, that is an attractive metric. Now, we've already started the campaign with the NUMB-5 well in the Cheiron-operated North Um Baraka concession in the north part of the Western Desert. We drilled the well just a few kilometers away from an old well, which tested better than 2,000 boepd in the Jurassic. Now we did find Jurassic pay in this well, but the reservoir was tighter. That just points to the overall, you can have somewhat predictable reservoir results in the Western Desert, so you have to be careful and do your homework. With this new information, we're evaluating our options for the area. Overall, we see significant running room across the concession.
Now we'll begin our own operated exploration campaign mid-year, which you can see on the chart, in the South Abu Sennan concession with the Sakhr and Saman wells. From there, we hope to have a more or less continuous exploration drilling program moving to the South East Horus concession, and finally, West El Fayum by the end of next year. We will begin our 3D seismic acquisition in South Abu Sennan after completion of 3D in the North Um Baraka concession, which starts towards the end of this month. Then we'll finish acquisition in South East Horus. Each of these programs is 500 sq km of wide-azimuth 3D seismic. Now finally, on slide 22, we'll turn to the U.K., where we have two focus areas for ILX.
The Nelson field area in the central North Sea, as you can see at the top, and the southern gas basin, what we call the Mid- North Sea High, and you can see our concessions at the bottom of the slide. We kicked off the campaign with the Shell-operated Jaws well late last year. We did find a thick section of Jurassic sands, but unfortunately they were wet. We plan to spud the Capricorn-operated Diadem well in the second quarter of this year. While Jaws was disappointing, each of these Fulmar sand pods is distinct, and the Jaws result does not impact on Diadem prospectivity. In the Mid- North Sea High, we've completed the acquisition of 3D seismic over the main Plymouth prospect, and we should have the data in hand in May of this year.
Now we have ample time ahead of the drill decision to assess the prospectivity, but we're committed to accelerating our timeline just as we are in all of our concessions. In summary, we have a refocused exploration program targeting infrastructure-led opportunities which drive value with relatively short cycle time to first production, while we're still maturing select impact opportunities in emerging basins where scale will drive the value. Now back to you, Simon.
Thank you, Eric. In summary, as we continue to renew the portfolio, remain focused on disciplined allocation of capital towards delivery of value growth, sustainability, and further returns. Egypt was the first step in the renewal, and we believe we're well positioned to enhance the platform for sustainable growth within strict value criteria. In Egypt itself, we're pleased with the initial progress in the assets, as you've seen. The near-term focus is on liquids-rich production opportunities. Distribution of the Indian proceeds continues our track record of significant shareholder returns, and as I've said, that is a track record that we are enthusiastic to continue. As demonstrated in Egypt, we're focused on safely and responsibly producing hydrocarbons with a number of decarbonization activities already underway. Much to look forward to from our perspective.
That concludes the presentation, and now I'd like to hand over for any questions.
On the operational side first of all, please. On slide nine, your production CapEx.
Oh, sorry, you probably need a microphone, do you? Fire away.
Just a question on the ops side of things first of all. On slide nine, you've got a production CapEx profile chart there which shows production growth for your 2P and 2C. I was just wondering how much contribution does the 2C make to that profile?
I can take that.
Yeah, sure.
Paul might want to add, but the 2C starts to make a contribution towards the back end of that chart, so there's sort of 2025, 2026 predominantly.
Okay, thank you. Just another quick one on carbon intensity. Just wondering what your carbon intensity was last year, in absolute terms, and what your target might be for this year.
Yeah, Paul. You're on mute.
Can you hear me now?
Yeah.
Yes.
Yeah. Yeah, sorry. The carbon intensity last year is obviously a function of a blended production. It's production from the North Sea for essentially 10 months, which was about 95,000 tons of CO2 equivalent. Then there's been one month of production associated with Egypt, which was about 45,000 tons of CO2 equivalent. Then there's some operated emissions associated with other surveys . I think our total equity emissions reported for 2021 is going to be 146,000 tons, which on an equivalent basis I think is approximately 20. Obviously going forward, we will have a full year of Egypt production, which we anticipate associated equity emissions of between 180,000 and 200,000 tons of CO2 equivalent. Though obviously, the intensity there will be higher. Obviously that's what we are targeting in terms of reducing over the next three years.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. Other questions?
Hi, James Carmichael from Berenberg. Just a couple. I'm just wondering if there's any sensitivities you can give us on the U.K. contingent payments, I guess, in the context of the current price environment, first of all.
James?
Yes. I mean, the terms of the contingent payment were set out in the circular we've got. You can see, and I can point you in the direction of them afterwards, but the sort of percentage of revenue generated above $52 Brent, which is basically how it works over the next five years. As I said, at year-end prices in the $70s, the balanced evaluation was about $200 million. At today's prices, the total proceeds would be well in excess of $300 million, if that gives you an indication.
Great. Thanks. I guess just on M&A, I'm just wondering how the current price environment's affecting any negotiations that you're in, if it is. When we think about the Egypt assets, there's obviously quite a large component of that which is fixed gas pricing. Just wondering how when you're looking at new assets, how do you sort of weigh up the long-term visibility that that fixed pricing gives you versus maybe bringing in some more price exposure? Thanks.
I mean, maybe I can let James answer the first part of that question. On the second part, I mean, I think Egypt, for us, remains, you know, a very attractive asset from the point of view. There is downside protection. I mean, it's easy in today's environment to only think about today's price, you know. And easy to forget that, you know, this time two years ago, it was $20. You know, so what we're all used to in this industry is extreme volatility. So you know, what you look to as a long-term player in terms of planning is to protect against the downside and that volatility, but also have exposure to the upside.
Sure, you know, Egypt's got a fixed gas price component, but that does protect against the downside. You know, we are obviously focused on increasing the liquids element of the production as you've seen today as a result. I think, you know, that kind of asset remains very attractive to us on a go-forward basis. James?
Yeah, just to comment further on that part of the question. As I said, 70% of the revenues in Q4 of last year were liquids from Egypt, although, you know, 2/3 of the volumes are gas. Obviously this month, that'll be a higher percentage. You know, we've got significant exposure to current liquids price strength in that portfolio, and as Simon alluded to, downside protection from the significant part of the volumes that are fixed price. We like that mix, that balance in terms of hydrocarbon pricing. On M&A, you know, clearly, we've indicated that we are very much in an inquisitive phase for further building out the portfolio.
You know, we're building a portfolio for the longer term, and I think the strategic decisions that sellers of assets in this market are thinking about the longer term as well. Of course, you know, you have to work on ways to structure around near-term oil prices, but we've always done that. You know, we did that in Egypt with upside sharing with Shell. Clearly, you can hedge around near-term oil prices to increase leverage capacity over the near term, and those are all things we're doing. But longer term structurally, both with sellers, with our view, with financing counterparties view, we haven't seen a fundamental shift in terms of what we're looking at.
For us, it's long-term planning around about $60 Brent, and that's how we think about acquisitions. You know, clearly we structure around upside sharing in excess of that. And obviously in terms of the near term, that's a market you can hedge around and finance around.
Any other questions?
Hi, Rachel Fletcher from Morgan Stanley. Just a quick kind of follow-up on the M&A question. What would the criteria be for potential acquisitions in terms of, you know, how are you thinking about cost, emissions, hydrocarbon mix? And should we expect further investment in gas-focused assets in the Eastern Mediterranean, or are you looking at kind of broader options?
Well, I can answer and maybe James can add if there's anything I miss. I mean, I think, you know, we're relatively agnostic in terms of oil and gas. You know, each asset has its own specific emissions profile, whether gas or oil, you know, and it's down to whether or not you can see an improvement pathway like we have in Egypt, to be able to influence and drive down those emissions. So that very much remains a criteria. It's important for us, as I was emphasizing, to have a clear understanding of the kind of local market and indeed any regional market dynamics that particular asset might benefit from, but also actually increasingly, you know, the supportiveness or otherwise of the regulatory and fiscal regime.
I think for the industry, that's, you know, becoming ever more a driving factor in terms of areas in which you are free to operate. Other than that, you know, obviously I wouldn't comment on where we're looking specifically. You know, characteristics like Egypt we find attractive. You know, emerging markets, you know, have a number of attractive qualities. There are a number of discussions ongoing, and we'll see where we get to. Yeah, the focus is to have low-cost production, a clear emissions pathway for reduction, and a growth pathway for us as well.
Thank you.
Question down the front.
Morning. It's Ashley Kelty from Panmure Gordon. I was just wondering if you could talk about any hedging that you have in place, given the sort of volatility in commodities at the moment.
Yeah, we're unhedged at present, which in retrospect is probably a happy outcome. We historically have looked to hedge at the appropriate point in the cycle to protect debt capacity and to protect capital programs as opposed to you know as being the primary drivers of our hedging strategy. We'll continue to do that. Obviously, with the Egypt portfolio, as we've just been talking about, there is some downside protection built into the gas component of that. There's downside protection already there, and obviously, at the moment, we're happy to have the exposure on the upside to liquids.
Any other questions? No? Well, thank you everybody for attending, and look forward to coming back to you with further progress. Thank you.