Well, good morning everyone, and welcome to Capricorn's full year 2022 results presentation and update on our ongoing strategic review process. I'm Craig van der Laan, Chairman, and with me are Clare Mawdsley, our acting Chief Financial Officer, and Nathan Piper, our Commercial Director. I'd firstly like to apologize on behalf of our Interim CEO, Chris Cox, for not being able to speak at today's presentation due to a family medical emergency. We wish him and his family the very best. I want to stress that the board has been in place now for a mere 85 days, but in that time we've accomplished a great deal. We've got stuck in. We've completely focused on understanding the business, and we have achieved a lot in that time. We're very keen to share our initial thoughts with you today.
Importantly, we remain very confident about the future of Capricorn, and we believe there's a lot more we can do and optimize in the business to generate shareholder value. I'll begin our presentation today before handing to Nathan and Clare, and we would, of course, be happy to take your questions at the end. As you know, I was appointed Chair of Capricorn in February 2023, alongside five other new members of Capricorn's board, following a public campaign by a number of shareholders for change within the business. The renewed board provides a strong and broad skill set of senior oil and gas and energy industry experience and knowledge, shareholder engagement and capital markets expertise. We recognize there is an expectation for change in the business and that we have a strong mandate from shareholders to bring this about.
As we previously announced to the market, Catherine Krajicek and Erik B. Daugbjerg will retire from the board at our upcoming annual general meeting. Both Erik and Cathy continued as non-executive directors as the board was renewed and have been an enormous support to me and the rest of the board over the last months. They will retire from the board with our tremendous gratitude. I'm particularly pleased to announce today that a permanent Chief Executive, Randy Neely, will be joining Capricorn from the 1st of June. Randy is a highly experienced oil and gas industry leader who notably in his previous role as President and CEO of TransGlobe Energy, ran a very successful low cost, Egypt-focused business, including assets in the Western Desert. Under Randy's leadership, TransGlobe successfully engaged with EGPC in Egypt to deliver an amended, extended and consolidated production sharing contract.
Randy also has a strong track record of creating shareholder value, having overseen the recent merger between TransGlobe Energy and VAALCO Energy. Randy brings to Capricorn Energy a background of successful strategic execution, knowledge of our host country, and that track record I mentioned of effectively managing relationships to deliver results. He will, of course, benefit from a handover period with Chris Cox, and I want to put on record my gratitude to Chris Cox for the enormous amount of good work he's led during his period of interim leadership. Before highlighting the board's delivery of the strategic review priorities to date, let me remind you of the key moments for the business during 2022.
The tax refund in February 2022 from the Government of India of more than $1 billion enabled Capricorn to return $529 million of capital to shareholders in the form of a tender offer and buyback program. Then followed an intense period of corporate activity. A proposed recommended combination with Tullow Oil plc was announced in June 2022, which was subsequently withdrawn by the board after shareholder concerns. Thereafter, the board recommended a reverse takeover with NewMed Energy, which was also met with opposition and a public campaign by a number of shareholders, including demands for fundamental board renewal and the termination of the NewMed deal. As you know, this culminated in the resignation of the majority of the previous board and the appointment of six new board members at an extraordinary general meeting held on 1 February 2023.
The business ended 2022 in a strong cash position, which provided the backdrop for the strategic review process immediately launched by the new board on appointment. The guiding principle underpinning the priorities of our strategic review is the delivery of shareholder value. Nathan will break out the elements in more detail during his presentation, but at a high level, our focus in the first 80-85 days has been on four areas. First, significant cost reduction. We inherited a cost base that does not match the present or future activity set of the business. We've already taken decisive action to address this and will continue our process of assessing whether further cost savings can be achieved alongside embedding a culture of cost consciousness across our operations. Secondly, a refocused exploration strategy.
We'll focus sharply on low cost, short cycle exploration in Egypt, which has the potential to provide attractive near-term returns. Elsewhere, we've put in place a plan to monetize, farm down or exit all exploration activities and are evaluating the best value outcomes accordingly. We will not be spending new material cash on exploration outside Egypt. Thirdly, maximizing shareholder value from Egypt. We've taken the first steps in recalibrating the strategy of our Egypt business. We're developing a long term plan now to grow value such that the Egypt business can provide sustainable, stronger positive cash flows to the group. We'll have further detail on this and on our Egypt strategy generally and the longer term outlook in our Capital Markets Day, which we'll be holding in Q4 of this year. Fourthly, shareholder returns.
We are committing to return to shareholders all excess cash flow not required for our go forward core operational focus. Cash will only be kept in the business for working capital or to be reinvested into Egypt, retaining sufficient funding to maximize value from the core business. Today, we've been pleased to announce a capital return via special dividend of approximately $450 million, which is proposed to be paid in May. A contingent second special dividend of $100 million in Q4 2023, and a buyback of at least $25 million over the next 12 months. We today make a commitment, as I've said, that all additional excess capital will be returned via special dividends or buybacks.
Finally, the renewal of Capricorn provides an opportunity to reset and drive a culture change to ensure that our behaviors as a business underpin what we seek to do every day. That is maximize shareholder value, maintain a laser focus on costs, and engage openly and with respect with all of our stakeholders. Taken together, we believe these priorities will significantly enhance shareholder value and create a stronger and more sustainable business focused on safe and effective execution of our operations in Egypt. I'm extremely pleased with the progress made in our first 85 days and the hands-on effort and collaboration from the whole board of directors has set the tone for our strategic priorities to enhance shareholder value. It's also important to highlight that the strategic review is an ongoing process with further updates planned as we look to tackle work streams.
These include, but are not limited to: reducing our receivables position in Egypt, looking to extend and renegotiate our license terms, addressing restricted cash within the business, and thoroughly reviewing our Egyptian business plan. All things which our incoming CEO, Randy Neely, has had previous success tackling in Egypt. We will be looking to update our stakeholders on this at a Capital Markets Day, as I've said, planned for Q4 this year. With that, let me hand over to Clare and Nathan to take you through the 2022 performance and to provide more detail on our strategic review progress today.
Thank you, Craig, and good morning, everyone. In the next few slides, I'll take you through 2022 financial performance and cash flows and the current balance sheet position. Looking at financial and operational performance, production for the full year for 2022 averaged 34,200 bbl of oil equivalent a day, in line with the revised guidance presented at half year. Prioritizing higher margin liquids production has led to liquids representing 42% of total production. Revenue generated in the year was $229 million, 79% of which was generated from liquids production. Average realized prices were $98.8 bbl for liquids and $2.90 MCF for gas. OpEx in the year averaged $5.7 per bbl of oil equivalent. Egypt development and production CapEx was $79 million and exploration CapEx was $83 million.
Gross profits in Egypt, i.e. revenue less OpEx, were $158 million, whilst the operating cash inflows for the period were $129 million due to an increase in the receivables position over the year of $34 million. Year-end receivables in Egypt were $97 million, of which $66 million were due for payment. That balance has increased since the year end, which we'll see in the upcoming slides, but we've had good engagement with the Egyptian State Oil company, EGPC, on the receivables issue. Looking at cash flows over the year. We started 2022 with net cash of $133 million. We received the India tax refund of just over $1 billion in February, and around half that amount was subsequently returned to shareholders.
Egypt cash flows netted to a cash inflow of $50 million after exploration and development CapEx and a $25 million contingent consideration payment to Shell, which we'll see broken down further on the next slide. After working capital settlements, contingent consideration of $67 million was received in the first half in respect of North Sea in respect of the North Sea earn-out. Exploration CapEx outside Egypt was $67 million, predominantly in the U.K. North Sea, Mexico and Mauritania. Adjusting for admin, financing, and other costs, this took us to a net cash position of $597 million at the end of December. Total gross G&A in 2022 totaled $70 million, which was spread across admin, CapEx and OpEx. Since the year end, we've received a further $137 million from the North Sea earn-out.
There was a net cash outflow of $40 million in respect of Egypt cash flows, which I'll talk more about on the next slide. $15 million was spent on international exploration since the start of the year, mainly in respect of the Mexico Yatzil well, which was our final remaining commitment well outside of Egypt. After admin, financing and other costs, including the NewMed deal fees, net cash at the end of March was $646 million. In addition to that, and as mentioned on the previous slide, the trade receivables balance has grown by around $40 million since the year end to a balance of $137 million at the end of March. That's partly a timing issue.
A payment was received in early April. Looking now at Egypt, we saw in the last slide that Egypt cash flows netted to a cash inflow of $50 million for 2022. We can see here how that number is made up with revenue of $229 million, cash collections of $198 million after the impact of the 2022 receivables movements, OpEx of $69 million, deferred consideration of $24 million, development CapEx of $62 million and exploration CapEx of $28 million. The net cash outflow in Egypt of $40 million for Q1 2023 is negative, mainly due to a one-off deferred consideration payment for the year of $25 million, which was paid to Shell in January in respect of 2022, as well as the timing of cash collections and the increase in receivables over the course of the first quarter.
A key opportunity and area of focus for us is optimizing the receivables position going forward. This is an area that our new CEO, Randy, has a lot of experience in. At the end of March, gross cash of $798 million includes restricted cash outside Egypt of $13 million and a $22 million cash balance in Egypt, which is restricted due to debt covenants. Restricted cash can't be freely distributed to the wider group unless distribution conditions in the Egypt debt facilities are satisfied. These conditions include a minimum debt service cover ratio and a 12-month forward-looking liquidity test. Restricted cash balances in Egypt can be used freely by Capricorn Egypt for debt service, general running costs, and CapEx and OpEx spend in respect of the Egypt-producing assets.
With that, I'll hand over to Nathan to take you through guidance for 2023.
Thank you, Clare, and good morning. For 2023, we expect production to be between 32,000-36,000 bbl of oil equivalent per day, with the mid case similar to last year. Production is expected to grow through the year from year end to year end by about 20%. Again, there'll be a focus on higher value oil wells in particular, so the percentage of liquids is expected to grow. Operating cost barrel are expected the same as last year, and total development and production CapEx will be between $100 million-$120 million, funding five drillings operating throughout the year, plus well tie-ins and completion of the TEEM Pilot Project. We have a sixth rig now drilling exploration wells through the rest of the year, with total exploration CapEx in Egypt of $25 million.
All of the wells represent commitment wells associated with the three operated exploration licenses. Our legacy international exploration CapEx will be up to $30 million, mostly associated with the Mexico costs, including the Yatzil exploration well that's already drilled in Mexico. That's the final international commitment outside Egypt, and there are no plans for further international exploration CapEx outside Egypt, and we have no committed spending to be clear in 2024. Let's move on now to look at the progress of the strategic review so far, and we expect to say more, as previously mentioned, at our Capital Markets Day in Q4 of this year. First of all, on cost reduction. The renewed Capricorn Energy is a company focused on Egypt with a primarily non-operated business, and we will have an organization and a cost base to match.
We're designing a U.K. organization which has the minimum cost necessary to safely and effectively support our Egyptian operations, with ongoing cost controls to make sure it stays this way. This includes an approximately 70% reduction in U.K. headcount and office costs to reflect this. We anticipate the 2024 G&A cost to be less than half of those of 2022. Further reductions will be achieved as we switch a handful of roles from the U.K. to Egypt in the coming period. Overall, U.K. headcount was 160 in February 2023, and this will be approximately 40 by the end of the year. As previously announced, we will not be moving into the planned new head office, and we are currently looking for an alternative office accommodation in Edinburgh, which will be sized for the new organization with a flexible term.
In 2023, we will have substantial one-off restructuring costs due to redundancy payments, but we expect savings within the year to offset these. We are working hard to develop a new corporate culture of cost consciousness. We will have a small office with a tight-knit group of employees who have made a positive decision to remain with the business. The group will also benefit from the clarity of purpose in supporting an Egypt business and making sure we generate sustainable, rather, and positive cash flow. Onto G&A savings, we've provided more detail on the impact of the cost reductions that we're implementing on this slide. Rather than focus on individual numbers, we are confident that the ultimate output of the process will be an organization that is set up to deliver greater value from Egypt, operates safely, and performs.
A much leaner head office organization will support a team in Cairo reflecting the very clear strategic focus on Egypt, with central costs minimized to ensure we focus every dollar on driving value from our Western Desert assets. This will be an ongoing process as changes are implemented in the business. Moving on to exploration. The company is moving rapidly to reprioritize its exploration efforts in support of the Egyptian business and is intent on monetizing, farming down, or exiting the rest of its exploration portfolio with no international exploration spend planned going forward. The strategic focus on Egypt reflects the failure of frontier exploration to deliver material discoveries or a return on capital.
The priority is near-field, short-cycle exploration and appraisal drilling in Egypt to add reserves and grow production. The portfolio will adjust to align with the strategy with a priority to reduce exploration capital spend and associate G&A costs. Elsewhere, Capricorn does hold one deepwater block in Mauritania and one in Suriname. These blocks lie in two of the most successful new exploration provinces of the past decade, Senegal, Mauritania, where Capricorn's divested Sangomar field and the giant Tortue gas development are located, and the Guyana-Suriname basin, where over 12 billion bbl in oil equivalent basis has been discovered since 2015. With renewed wider industry interest in exploration, these projects, Capricorn is seeking to find partners to carry the company in the next phase of exploration costs and maintain optionality.
In Mexico, however, Capricorn has completed its commitments, and having evaluated, believes there's little benefit in maintaining our participation and are now in withdrawal or relinquishment processes for all of our Mexico licenses. As you've seen from our announcement today, we are also commencing a process for the potential sale of our U.K. assets. We've taken a clear view of our Egypt asset base and are encouraged by the nature of the fast return, low-cost onshore liquids rich value within it. Egypt is a jurisdiction which is supportive for oil and gas development and which is currently a net importer of both oil and gas and keen to address this imbalance. Our assets are in a low-cost area with significant growth potential for both liquids and gas and our existing production licenses.
There is real potential to grow the value of the existing business through improvement of operational performance in both production and drilling. We currently have five operational rigs, which allows us to grow production in the short term with an ongoing focus on higher value liquids. We also have substantial volumes of contingent resources, which have the potential to double our 2P reserves and increase production through a combination of appraisal and development drilling, as well as improved PSC terms. The next steps are to address the receivables and restricted cash, better build relationships and optimize cash consumption and returns, where our incoming CEO can help. We are very confident about the medium-term future for Egypt, and although there are undoubtedly a number of challenges to address. For Egypt production, our plan for 2023 is a simple one, to grow production.
Production decreased through 2022 as our plans to ramp up from two rigs at the start of the year to five much earlier in the year were frustrated by rig delays and logistical challenges. On average, we had 3.7 rigs per month during the year, which is not enough to halt decline. We have already observed that we can grow production in the short term with five rigs. We expect 2023 to be a mirror image of 2022, increasing production from year-end to year-end by 20%. In the year so far, we have seen encouraging results with near field extension and appraisal drilling on the edges of existing producing fields. There'll be more on that later. As mentioned in the release, we have seen a reduction in reserves in 2022, mainly as a result of poor performance in some of the gas fields.
This was partially offset by a small increase in ultimate recovery expectations from oil fields. The NPV impact of these changes is not as negative as expected, as the average value of a barrel of oil in our assets is about 3.5 x higher than the value of an equivalent barrel of gas. There is also material upside in our asset base through the conversion of contingent resources into potentially doubling our 2P reserves and ultimately increasing production. A lot of this is either in tight gas reservoirs or in existing assets beyond the current license expiries, so will require improved gas prices or license extensions to unlock, which we're confident in doing.
To give an example of the rapid high value return opportunities in our portfolio, in 2022, we had particular success with drilling down dip in the BED area and finding oil in a well which is designed to be a water injector, which is a nice problem to have. Encouraged by this outcome, we have drilled more down dip wells already in 2023. Four of these wells have returned results much better than anticipated. Not only have we extended reservoirs into lower parts of the reservoir, we have also been at original reservoir pressure, indicating that the areas are untapped by existing wells. There is a potential for several more wells like this, which can be tied into production facilities very quickly and provide rapid returns.
In a short space of time, we have identified the areas we need to focus on in 2023 in order to grow the value of our Egyptian business. This is all with a view to ensure that we have a business that is sustainably free cash flow positive, able to fund its future growth internally, and be able to provide regular returns to shareholders. We have established that we can grow production in the short term with five rigs, and we need to decide the optimum number of rigs to use over the next several years. More importantly, we need to make sure we are drilling the most valuable wells in the right order, which means having life of field development plans for all our assets and focusing on oil production when oil prices are high.
In the short term, we have some operational challenges where we can assist Cheiron and APECO. We have a very important pilot project at the TEEM field to bring online, and we'll be looking to improve operational performance of some of the rigs and some production wells that have been offline due to pump failures. All of these areas where short-term improvements can be made by interventions from experienced operators, and we will have focus from Capricorn's technical team through the rest of the year in this area. Finally, we have already started discussions with Cheiron to explore options to optimize and extend our current concessions in a win-win agreement with our Egyptian authorities, which would enable the unlocking of some of the potential in our base of contingent resources. With that, let me hand you back to Craig.
Thank you, Nathan
What we've outlined today are the initial conclusions and actions delivered by the board as Capricorn gets a fresh start, and I'm very pleased with what we've accomplished in these first 85 days. As a new board, we've examined the costs of the business with rigor on a bottom-up basis to reset our cost base, which we believe is a better match for what we have to deliver as a sustainable and profitable business. We have a clear operational plan to execute alongside our partners in Egypt to maximize value from our producing and exploration assets, continuing our focus on higher value liquids targets and refocusing exploration activity from capital-intensive and high-risk frontier activities to Egypt's short-cycle, lower capital opportunities. This is a business that will have a very clear identity.
Egypt-focused, lean, and positioned to deliver sustainable and strong cash flows and returns for our investors. Finally, we're committed to returning all excess capital to shareholders as effectively and efficiently as possible, and we're very pleased to announce a significant capital return this morning. I want to emphasize that we're very excited about the future and our investment in Egypt. We have a lot of work to do, but we are optimistic that we can continue to optimize the business and generate value for our shareholders. In closing, I wanted to repeat our plans for an immediate one-off special dividend of an initial $450 million.
A further $100 million special dividend later in the year, contingent on a number of factors, including addressing our receivables position in Egypt, the outcome of conversations with stakeholders in Egypt around license extension and the renegotiation of terms, actual oil and gas prices, outcomes for the remainder of 2023, and the conclusions of our strategic review as it relates to further cost actions and future investment. In addition, we also announced today an ongoing share buyback of at least $25 million over the next 12 months. To be absolutely clear, we're committed to returning all additional excess capital via buybacks or special dividends over time. Thank you very much for listening, and with that, we'll now take any questions you may have.
We'll start by taking analyst questions from the room before we hand to the operator to open up to questions from the conference line. For my benefit in particular, I'd be grateful if you could state your name and organization as you ask your question. Thank you. Any questions, please.
Morning. Thanks for taking my question. Rachel Fletcher, Morgan Stanley. I wanted to focus on the distributions that you've announced this morning. Why is $575 million of distributions the correct level? What underpins that first special dividend, that $450 million? Then also, how did you decide on the split between the dividend and the buyback? Finally, if I may, how should we think about distributions going forward? Thank you.
I'll make some initial comments, Rachel, and I might pass to Clare for any top up. As you can imagine, in the last 85 days, we've done an enormous amount of work around the cash flow forecasting for the group. As you would have seen from the first three months that we've reported, cash flow can be very lumpy in this organization, and we need to reflect on that as we contemplate payments at a particular point in the cycle. We're very confident about the $575 million being available. As a first step, and conscious that shareholders are keen to receive as much as they can as early as possible, our clear decision is to distribute $450 million immediately. Obviously, we have to go through a shareholder approval process, which will happen very quickly.
We're also very positive about the additional $100 million being available. I want to emphasize we're very clear and positive about the total being available. It reflects our assessment of free cash flow. It's not about, you know. I want to emphasize this very much. Capricorn's focus going forward is about ensuring an appropriate level of working capital, not about building war chests. Not about retaining capital for the longer term. We will be lean. What you can see here is our estimate, at least over the next 12 months, of the amount which under any circumstances is going to be available for distribution. The commitment around the buybacks reflects, I think, a desire for us to give shareholders some optionality around the way in which they receive their return.
There are certainly some people who I think would appreciate a buyback component. We've positioned it obviously as being a minimum, at least $25 million, and clearly there are some things that can happen going forward that would potentially increase that amount. We'll be looking forward to obviously updating our expectations on capital as we communicate openly and frankly with the market going forward. Clare, is there anything you'd like to add to that?
Nothing further to add, no. I think you've covered everything, Craig.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Rachel.
Are there any other questions from the room? With that I might turn it over to calls from the line.
As a reminder to ask a question over the phone, please signal by pressing star one. Our first question comes from Matt Smith from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, morning, guys. Hopefully you can hear me. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one would to be just to stick on the topic of the distributions, if I could, specifically on the special dividend, the $100 million targeted 4 Q. I guess there's mention of the receivables position in Egypt, the outcome of conversations around fiscal terms. Therefore, is the $100 million dividend dependent on good news in that regard? Or should we expect it, if the business continues at its status quo?
Thanks very much for that, Matt. I want to really highlight an important distinction in what we've said, and maybe it hasn't come through clearly enough. And that is that the $100 million is conditional. There are a number of factors that go into releasing that condition. The items that we've listed are not items, all of which have to be ticked in order for that $100 million to be released. They are simply factors that go to our ability to confirm that $100 million payment. As I mentioned earlier, and as you said, you've seen from the first three months, it's a very lumpy cashflow business. Any one of these factors can have a significant impact on cash position at any point in time.
We will be monitoring these cashflow forecasts constantly to ensure that we are in a position to release the $100 million at the earliest possible moment. We've indicated Q4 2023, and we're very confident about that.
Perfect. Okay, great. Break here. One more from me, if that's okay, and that would be around the I guess the receivables position and also the sort of fiscal situation in Egypt. I guess that's sort of, you know, very much work in progress or work to be done. I guess that's really my question. Is that work in progress? Have you had any sort of positive indications on outcomes here? Or is this sort of work that still needs to commence? I suppose linked to that, I note that the CMD is targeted for the fourth quarter. I'm just sort of wondering, is it the case that you have expectations that some of these issues might have been resolved by then? Thanks.
I think it's very clear to say that, we've been working conscientiously on trying to find a solution for the receivables position since the new board took over. It is a constant feature of working in Egypt and has been for some years. It's, you know, we're not alone in this respect. Obviously, the receivables went up in the first quarter, but as you would have seen from or heard, from what Clare had to say, there was a payment received in early April which reduced that balance. We would expect that receivables position in any event in the normal course to stabilize. It's not something that we're comfortable with, and we'll be working assiduously with our partners and through our relationships in Egypt to try and find a solution to this.
You know, we're very fortunate at the board level to have Hesham Mekawi, a very experienced oil and gas industry executive, able to assist us in developing our strategy for engagement with the relevant parties. Of course, now we've announced a terrific appointment in Randy Neely as our CEO, who has spent years grappling with these issues. I think, you know, we've got the best. We've got the A team on this. It is clearly for us a way in which significant value and cash can be delivered potentially to the organization. We'll have a lot of focus.
As for the timing of the investor day later in the year in Q4, to be frank, that's a lot about letting Randy get his feet under the desk and we've only had 85 days. Randy hasn't even started yet. I would have hesitated to give him an earlier date than that. He needs to be able to reflect on this and, you know, we will certainly be providing an update on the strategy around that at the Capital Markets Day at that time. We'll be confirming an absolute date for that very shortly after Randy is appointed and joins us.
Perfect. All very clear. Thanks for clarity. Much appreciated, and I'll pass it over.
Thank you.
Okay. Our next question.
Sorry, could you repeat who you were asking to say this, to ask their question? You were quite faint in the call there.
I'm sorry, were there any more questions?
We will take our next question from Chris Wheaton from Stifel. Chris, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Marvelous. Thanks very much indeed. A number of questions from me, please, this morning. Firstly, are you able to detail how much the return of receivables was from Egypt, paid, that Clare referred to, paid just after the beginning of April?
Clare?
It was a relatively significant payment. It wasn't a massive payment. I don't have the number in front of me right now, I'm afraid. As Craig alluded to, we hope to see more similar payments and to see the position stabilize as quickly as possible.
Presumably, it wasn't as big as the entire $40 million build in the first quarter, but it was.
No. It was less than that. It was probably around half of that or just under.
Okay. Brilliant, Clare. Thanks very much indeed. Second question on Egypt production. Nathan referred to a 20% growth in the year. If you're going to average around 33, 34 for the year, that implies when you start in the 20% growth entry to exit, that implies current production is around 30,000-31,000 a day. Is that correct? If so, how you know, are there particular fields or particular issues that mean it's declined that much? 'Cause that's quite a significant drop from previous levels.
Morning, Chris. You can see the slide on page 21. We've detailed the trajectory of production through 2022. It's definitely stabilized through the first part of this year. I guess the point is if we're drilling over 40 wells through the course of 2023, we'd anticipate a steady growth in production. You know, we're not normally expecting to give exit production rate guidance, but what we're trying to show is a trajectory and a direction of travel. Because of the late arrival of rigs through 2022, production, and that meant that not enough wells were drilled, production naturally declined. In order to arrest that and then begin to catch up, we now have five rigs working, but that obviously takes time.
The investments going in through the course of this year, we will leave 2023 at a production rate which is around 20% higher than we left 2022. Giving the direction of travel and what, that's what we talk about a mirror image. You're right to highlight that at the end of 2022, production was dropping.
Great. Thank you. Two more questions, if I may. Firstly, on the conditionality around the $100 million of an additional special dividend. Interestingly, Senegal isn't mentioned as one of the conditions, yet renegotiation of Egypt licenses is. I would think it's extremely challenging to expect, with a new Chief Executive in place, renegotiation of the licenses by year-end. I just wonder how realistic it is to expect that license renegotiation process to take place. I wonder if, Craig, you could perhaps expand on that point.
Yeah, absolutely. It is a point that I made in response to an earlier question, and that is that these are not individual conditions. These are factors which go towards the conditionality of the $100 million being released. Now, any one of these can contribute positively or of course negatively towards that being released. The condition is the commitment to make the payment. The factors which go towards releasing it are about the confidence of certainty on cash flow at the back end of the year. That can be achieved in a number of different ways, given the lumpiness of our business. Certainly would not expect, as you rightly point out, necessarily complex renegotiations to have been achieved in a very short period of time after a CEO is appointed.
Obviously, trajectory is important as to the confidence it gives on cash flow. You know, we see a lot of positive signs there, but you know, our role as a board is to be very careful in our stewardship of the cash of this business, and that's what we're telegraphing here. That's, that's the conditionality. Please do not regard the factors as themselves individual conditions that need to be ticked off.
Right. Craig, that's very clear. Thank you very much indeed. I promise, my last question coming up. $35 million targeted G&A cost ongoing. If you look back at 2022 performance, first half 2022 G&A cost annualized is $42 million. Your $35 million is about, you know, 10%-12% below that number. Have you looked at ways of being more aggressive on cutting G&A costs? This seems to be taking you back to a position that isn't that much better than first half 2022 levels when you've got, you know, quite a substantially different business that you intend to deliver in the future.
I'll make some initial comments. I'll ask Clare to respond in more detail on some of the numbers. I think what's very clear is that, as you would have heard, there are a lot of things that we have to run off here. There are activities that still need to be carried out by people who are in role in order to deliver value for shareholders. We've talked about exiting, we've talked about realizing value. Clearly, there's a level of overhead that we need to keep for some period within the business to service that value generation for shareholders. We've also highlighted in our presentation in the announcement that this re-represents our initial pass based on our view of where we think we can get to. We intend to be sharply focused on cost going forward.
We have a CEO being appointed today who ran an extremely lean operation historically, we hope that sends a very strong message about where we might get to. At the same time, we have to be sensible. We don't wanna put ourselves in a position where the lack of resources, you know, challenges our ability to liberate value. We're gonna ask shareholders to bear with us through this transition period, conscious that we are absolutely laser-sharp focused on reducing costs. We've taken a first step in that, which is the numbers that you've seen. I'm confident that there is more to come. With that, I'll ask Clare to make some comments about the detailed numbers that you mentioned.
Yeah. I guess just to add, obviously Craig said it's a first pass. It's also a minimum. The $35 million or the 50% on the total cost base of $70 is a minimum cash saving target, and we do expect to exceed that. Another point is this is gross G&A that we're talking about. The $70 million figure for 2022 is gross G&A, i.e. our total cost base for the business. That is not the same as net admin or admin in a cash flow waterfall that we've presented previously, which is after allocations to things like CapEx and OpEx. We'll provide more information, in, you know, further updates and results announcements around the impact on net admin of these cost-saving initiatives.
Okay. That's great, Clare. Thank you very much indeed.
Thank you, Chris. Are there any more questions on the line?
We have no additional questions. I'd like to hand back for closing remarks. Oh, sorry, we have an additional question in the room.
Hi there. It's Dan Slater from Zeus. I just wanted to ask a little bit more about the receivables. Obviously it's $97 million at the end of last year. It's probably gone up since then, and we're talking quite a bit about that stabilizing as opposed to necessarily reducing. Is that where we sort of think it is? Are we hoping it's gonna kinda stop at $110 and just... and then you start getting paid, or do you think there's, well, hopefully some sort of potential to actually sort of reduce that, and where do we think that might get to?
The other thought I had was slightly more widely in the context of your other peers in Egypt, I'm sure there's a bit of a hierarchy of who gets paid the dollars and who has to sort of get in line, and do you have much of a feeling for where you fall in that queue? Obviously, it's gonna be below some of the much larger companies, but where are you in terms of that queue, if you see what I mean?
If you allow me to answer the second question first. Part of our commitment to Egypt is around having the right team in place, as I've said. Having the right people. Building the right relationships. That, to us, is key to the resolution of the receivables position. Being front of mind, and ensuring that, you know, it's well understood that this is an issue that we need to see addressed, but dealing respectfully and appropriately with the relevant counterparties and working with our partners in this. We, we think bringing the right team to bear will certainly assist in accelerating the resolution of this issue.
It is a common feature as we've highlighted of doing business in Egypt, but we're very keen to ensure that, you know, we do something to address it, and we're bringing everything to bear on it. I'm confident that, you know, we will do the best we can to be at the front of the queue. Of course, always, as I said, being respectful of the context in which we find ourselves and the cultural context and the commercial context of our relationships in Egypt. We've talked a lot about our enthusiasm for the market, and that is very real. We see a significant opportunity. It is Capricorn going forward. That's something I think that will come across, you know, to our counterparties, to the relevant government agencies very clearly.
It's already been communicated effectively through our Egypt team, but through Hesham Mekawi, our board member, as I've mentioned, and of course, Randy will bring that to bear. I think we've got the right team, the right strategy in place to deal with this. In terms of the numbers, Clare, you've already addressed the fact that the number came down at the end of March, in early April. Stabilized is a difficult term. I think what we're wanting to send you a signal is we're not seeing any special adverse treatment of us in this. It does jump around a lot.
We've given you a different level of disclosure we hope, which is appreciated, which is the receivables position at the end of March, precisely because we wanna show that to you, that it does go jump around a bit. It is, the issue, the sort of thing that we grapple with on a daily basis. That's the part of the challenge. But, you know, our efforts will be directed solely at bringing that down and as rapidly as possible through the new team. Clare, do you wanna add anything else to that?
No, I think you've covered everything, Craig.
Terrific.
Thanks very much.
Thanks very much, Dan. Any more questions?
Just want to confirm there are no further questions in the room. I'd like to hand back for any additional or closing remarks.
Thank you very much everyone for your attention, for your questions today. I wanna pay tribute at this point to my board colleagues and the non-executive directors who were appointed just 85 days ago and the two continuing directors who remain on the board during that period. We have been completely hands-on with this business for the last 85 days. You can't get to this sort of position in such a brief period of time without being completely dedicated to understanding the business and its challenges, and I'm very proud of the amount of effort that's gone into it. I want to say that universally, we are enthusiastic about the opportunities we see in Egypt. There are clearly challenges. Every business has challenges. We're up for it.
We've put the right team in place, I think we're very well positioned to generate value for our shareholders going forward. I very much look forward to the next opportunity to update you on where we're headed. Thank you very much for your involvement today.