Good morning. Excuse me. Welcome to the Derwent London 2023 full-year results presentation here at our recently opened member lounge DL/28. As well as me, you will hear from Damian, Nigel, and Emily. I should then wrap up, and we'll have Q&A. Turning to slide two in setting the scene. Despite the challenges, we delivered a very strong leasing performance in 2023 with more than GBP 28 million of new rent agreed, 8% ahead of ERV. This was three times the lettings we agreed in 2022. In addition, we reduced our EPRA vacancy rate by a third to 4% with activity across our villages. However, with a weak investment market driven by high interest rates, the outward shift in yields led to a 10.6% decline in underlying value of our portfolio in the year-end, a 13.8% reduction in EPRA NTA to 3,129.
Notwithstanding that, our developments increased in value, and our better-quality buildings again outperformed. We have a high-quality, well-located, and differentiated portfolio, a regeneration pipeline focused on the West End, and a strong balance sheet which gives us capacity to continue investing. We deliberately take a long-term strategic approach, recycling buildings that no longer meet occupier demand with GBP 1 billion of disposals over the last five years. Supply of space that meets the evolving needs of occupiers is limited, particularly in the West End. With a constrained market development pipeline, this is unlikely to change over the next few years, and this is leading to an acceleration in rental growth. There are signs that value is beginning to emerge as inflation follows a downward course, and the cost and availability of debt becomes more favorable.
We're also fortunate to have options and the financial capacity to take advantage of the right opportunities come to market at the right price. So, turning to guidance. Consequently, on the back of 2.1% ERV growth in 2023, we are increasing our rental guidance for our portfolio for 2024 to +2% to +5%. As seen in our 2023 lettings, we expect better buildings to continue to outperform. For yields, upward pressure is easing, and we believe we are approaching low-point evaluations for this cycle. Differentiating Derwent. Businesses are becoming more strategic in their real estate planning and more selective in the building and the landlord they choose. The supply-demand dynamics of the West End, by comparison to other parts of London, are strong and expect to remain favorable over the coming years, supporting our long-term structural preference. We are providing design-led, innovative, and sustainable space in well-connected locations.
Combined with high-quality portfolio-wide amenity, our sophisticated buildings meet the needs of a broad range of occupiers. Slide four. London is too often viewed as a single market, but in reality, it is a series of submarkets with quite different operational dynamics and performance. The diversity of London's appeal sets it apart from other global cities. It has a deep pool of businesses with different requirements ranging from large headquarters on long leases to smaller units on more flexible terms. It has an ample transport network, which was made even better by the opening of the Elizabeth Line in 2022. London has never been more accessible. Connectivity applies to more than just transport. This is why we maintain our approach to clustering. The West End is tight, in part due to the restrictive planning environment, with approximately 70% of buildings either listed or in conservation area.
The further East however the looser the planning regime, and the higher the vacancy. Growth in the economy, in jobs, and in the population all support business confidence. This, in turn, is an important driver of demand for offices and, therefore, rental growth. As we've highlighted for some time now, the office plays a crucial role for most businesses as the quality and value of the face-to-face interaction is recognized. We have seen an ongoing rise in employees being required to spend the majority of their time in the office. Developing and retaining quality on slide five. We continually upgrade our portfolio while selling assets that no longer meet evolving occupier requirements. We are investing in projects to create the next generation of best-in-class space. Our higher-quality buildings have delivered a more robust valuation performance over the last year, and we expect this outperformance to continue.
As such, we will carry on developing our pipeline while also ensuring that the assets we own are those that are relevant and in demand and that have the potential to be repositioned. 44% of our portfolio has repositioning potential, providing the raw material for the future. I will now hand over to Damian, who will take you through the financial highlights.
Thank you, Paul, and good morning, everyone. Macroeconomics had a big impact in 2023, further pushing up yields and the cost of finance. Cost inflation, particularly in relation to construction projects, energy, and people, also increased at a faster rate than office rents. Our 2023 financial highlights are on slide 7. Yield expansion took EPRA NTA per share to GBP 31.29 , giving a total return for the year of -11.7%. Gross rental income was up 2.8%, but property expenditure brought net rents down marginally to GBP 186.2 million. EPRA earnings were correspondingly 4.4% lower at 102 pence per share, though the second half was 6% higher than the first. We have proposed a final dividend of GBP 0.55 pence. The GBP 0.795 total dividend for the year makes this our 16th successive year of dividend increases since the merger, and it was 1.3 times covered by EPRA earnings.
Debt ratios all remain strong, and the Derwent London balance sheet is among the lowest geared in the U.K. sector. The movement in EPRA NTA per share is shown on slide eight. The property valuation decline was GBP 5.16 per share on the West End portfolio and GBP 0.08 on our share of the 50 Baker Street joint venture. Other figures were close to 2022's but with lower-than-usual profits on disposal. Slide nine s hows EPRA earnings. Gross rents increased to GBP 212.8 million, but property expenditure, admin costs, and impairment charges all increased over the prior year. Administrative expenses were higher after wage inflation and a headcount increase, and impairment charges totaled GBP 2.6 million compared to a GBP 1 million reversal in 2022.
Net finance costs were almost unchanged, and overall, EPRA earnings ended the year at GBP 1.02 per share, of which GBP 0.495 was recorded in the first half and GBP 0.525 in the second. Slide 10. Growth rents. Developments and refurbishments increased rents by GBP 8 million, with other lettings and asset management adding GBP 7.5 million compared to 2022. Breaks and expiries reduced rent by GBP 5.7 million, and disposals, mainly of Charterhouse Street, by a further GBP 4 million. On a like-for-like basis, gross rental income was up 1.7%, but the higher costs and impairments meant that net rental income was down 1.4%. Slide 11. This shows a deeper dive into property expenditure over the last two years. Irrecoverable service charge costs increased to GBP 6.6 million in 2023. The increase came mainly from capped service charges and balancing charges in the first half.
These were influenced by higher vacancy levels and wage growth in areas like cleaning, security, and maintenance. We also saw a spike in energy costs through late 2022 and early 2023. Falling energy costs and lower vacancy rates in the second half saw irrecoverable service charges fall by more than 50% to GBP 2.1 million. Other property costs increased to GBP 17.4 million, largely due to general inflation and some historic rates bills. We're presenting to you today from our second member lounge, which offers facilities and amenities which differentiate us in the market. This helps attract and retain occupiers and reduces vacancy. The running costs were GBP 1.4 million in 2023, some of which is offset by direct revenue. Overall, property expenditure was GBP 24 million for 2023, equivalent to 11% of gross rental income. Slide 12 shows project expenditure across the different categories.
The major projects on site incurred GBP 117.4 million of spend, of which GBP 20 million went on the residential units to sale at Baker Street, held as trading property, with a further GBP 6.4 million on the retail to be sold to the freeholder on completion. We also spent GBP 35.6 million on a number of smaller refurbishment schemes. The 50 Baker Street JV investment and Old Street Quarter together accounted for GBP 4.1 million of expenditure. Slide 13 sets out estimated future project expenditure. We expect to spend about GBP 222 million in 2024, including our solar power facility in Scotland and some substantial refurbishment projects in buildings like Stephen Street. Our revised estimate for EPC upgrade costs is now GBP 95 million.
Included in this is a specific deduction in the December 2023 valuation of GBP 48 million, plus further allowances for general refurbishment as units come back to us.
Slide 14 shows our usual pro forma. It includes GBP 228 million of committed CapEx on major projects. It only takes account of contracted lettings and sales and allows for no further development profits. We expect to do rather better than this, but it does show that interest cover and loan-to-value ratio remain very affordable under this scenario. Slide 15. Before considering our overall debt position, let's look at how our 2031 green bonds have been trading through the last year or so. The chart here demonstrates the volatility both in rates and credit spreads through the year. The yield climbed to a peak of around 7% in the summer before falling sharply late in the year to close at 5%. Rates have since picked up a bit, with the bonds currently trading around 5.3%. That's roughly what we'd expect to see today for unsecured eight-year money.
Note also how the credit spread, which is the orange line, has generally moved lower through the year, with the spread on these bonds now about 140 basis points over the gilt. Rates may continue to be volatile through 2024, but there's increasing consensus that the general direction is now downwards. Our GBP 83 million secured loan matures in October, and with our stable credit rating and a constructive lending atmosphere for stronger credits, we have already had a number of positive meetings with potential funders. The investment market was slow in 2023. Disposals were low at GBP 66 million and acquisitions only GBP 4 million, but we expect to see capital recycling accelerate in 2024. Slide 16. Against this background, our debt ratios shown here all remain solid. Almost all our borrowings are fixed or hedged.
We had a weighted average unexpired term of five years at year-end, and the weighted average interest rate was almost unchanged over the year at 3.17%. Our covenants were very well covered, and relationships with all our lenders remain excellent. Thank you, and now over to Nigel.
Thank you, Damian. Good morning. Slide 18. As published, our leasing activity last year was strong, with a flight to quality and ERVs moving forward. However, on the capital side, yields continued to move out, impacted by high interest rates and restricted availability of finance. Investment turnover in London was down over 50%. The overall impact was a 10.6% valuation decline and followed a 6.8% decrease last year. The West End, where 72% of our portfolio is located, however, remained more robust. Our developments continued to deliver good performance, up 8.1%, and despite a 25 basis point outward yield movement.
There was good progress on site. However, the key driver of the uplift was the pre-letting activity at Baker Street. Looking at our total property return, this was -7.3%, a small outperformance against the MSCI London Index of -7.9%. Turning over slide 19, a bit more on the themes. Having sold GBP 1 billion worth of assets over the last five years, we've improved the overall quality yet retained an active pipeline for the future. As shown on the chart, while developments were the star, our better-quality buildings, those with higher capital values, continue to be more resilient, driven by the quality of the space, amenity, and location. We expect this to continue. However, it is worth noting that over 44% of the portfolio by area provides future opportunities for regeneration, and there'll be more from Paul on this later. Slide 20. Rents and yields.
Our valuations of ERVs were up 2.1%, and as shown on the trend, have now been trending upwards for four periods. It's important to note that the average is a valuation figure, and because of our low vacancy rate, ERVs are mainly for rent reviews and lease renewals. Our open market lettings tend to be achieving higher rents, especially on the better-quality space, and these can be in the 5%-10% uplift range. On yields, these moved out across the sector. Overall, there was a 67 basis point movement in the equivalent yield in 2023, and we've seen a 109 basis point movement over the last 18 months. With our equivalent yield now over 5.5% and the downward interest rate outlook, the pressure on yield rises is starting to ease. Now a walk through the usual ERV buildup, slide 21.
Our annualized rent is GBP 206.5 million with a GBP 103.1 million reversion. GBP 44.6 million of this is contracted under our leases. In terms of annualized accounting income, after allowing for spreading of rent frees, this figure is GBP 211 million, as shown at the bottom of the chart. All potential income to the right of this is future income, subject to appropriate rent free spreading. On-site developments of Baker Street and Network, which both complete in 2025, could add GBP 33 million of income. GBP 15.6 million of this is already pre-let. Our smaller projects were up from GBP 2.7 million to GBP 7.5 million over the year, with a large proportion of this space coming back in the last four months of the year. This space will be upgraded and marketed later this year, and there's opportunity to drive rents here.
Vacant space available to occupy is 10.9 million, down by 6.4 million over the year, and this fed through to the lower vacancy rate. Finally, GBP 7.1 million of reversion. Overall portfolio ERV is up GBP 5 million to GBP 309.6 million, even after stripping out disposals, which had an ERV of just under GBP 4 million. Now the investment market, Slide 22. Investment activity was down significantly, with interest rates having a big impact on turnover. Debt was not accretive, so the market focused on equity buyers and smaller lot sizes and the West End. While to date there's been limited distress, we're starting to see earlier breaches now being actioned through consensual sales, and we expect this to continue. This is translating into better price discovery and more property being prepared for sale. This could bring some buying opportunities in 2024. Slide 23. Capital recycling.
The main disposal in 2023 was the sale of 19 Charterhouse Street to a family office. While there was refurbishment potential from 2025, it was a small project. We've made excellent progress at the private residential elements of the Baker Street development. Here, there are 41 high-quality apartments to be delivered in 2025. To date, seven sales have exchanged for nearly GBP 40 million at over GBP 3,500 per sq ft. So for 2024, we feel the investment market is starting to free up, and we'll be looking to make several disposals during the year. Moving on now to sustainability, slide 25. We continue to evolve our plans on our Scottish land, and this to be a key differentiator and play an important part in our net zero pathway. During the year, full planning consent came through on our 18.4 mW solar park on about 100 acres.
We aim to be in the construction phase later this year and complete in 2025. It should generate over 40% of our electricity needs for our London-managed portfolio. Derwent was one of the first UK REITs to set verified science-based targets back in 2019. At the time, this was a two-degree climate scenario, and we've now updated this near-term 2030 target to align with an improved 1.5-degree scenario. To achieve these, we'll require collaboration across the supply chain and industry innovation. In recognition of the quality of our sustainability work, our external ratings have continued to strengthen. Both GRESB and CDP scores rose over the year, and we remain top-rated with both MSCI and EPRA. During the year, we undertook a detailed review of the methodology used for our various environmental KPIs. The outcome is a closer alignment of floor areas to energy uses, which impacts our energy intensity.
Slide 26. Looking now at the metrics on page 26, the left chart shows our energy intensity level, which did increase in 2023. The principal driver was the extensive commissioning work and occupation of Soho Place, Featherstone Building, and Francis House. These projects all completed in mid-2022, and we expect their usage to settle down going forward. Overall, energy intensity remains 10% below our 2019 baseline. High energy usage did translate into increased carbon. This was also impacted partly by the rise in the U.K. government's carbon conversion factor, the first annual increase for over 10 years. Finally, looking at EPC, 88% of our portfolio is now rated at least EPC-C or above, and works have been incorporated into our asset management upgrade plans.
It's not clear at this stage whether EPC legislation will be further deferred, but we continue to believe that improving a building's environmental performance is good for business. It'll improve lettability and deliver attractive rental uplifts. Now over to Emily Prideaux.
Thank you, Nigel, and good morning. I'll first provide a summary of London's occupational market and our activity in 2023 before touching on occupier themes more generally. Slide 28. Occupational market demand. We've certainly seen occupiers re-engage with their long-term strategic real estate planning. Economic instability, particularly in the first half, led to transactions taking longer to complete and a rise in under-offers. However, as confidence recovered through the second half, the pace of take-up increased, with Q4 nearly 50% higher than the Q1 to Q3 average and under-offers consequently reducing by 25% in Q4.
Pre-letting activity remains high as businesses look increasingly early to secure space of the right quality with the right landlord that meets their needs. Encouragingly, active demand is strong, rising nearly 75% to just short of 10 million sq ft across a variety of business sectors. Occupational market theme, slide 29. To touch on some key themes that we're hearing from occupiers, both our own and in the marketplace, there's no doubt that quality continues to drive a lot of decision-making. As well as good design, of course, there are a few other key topics relevant to that overall quality that we hear consistently in our dialogue with occupiers. London. For international global companies, London is being prioritized when it comes to real estate. As Paul has touched on, it is a truly diverse city, both demographically and in terms of the business sectors it attracts.
It has an unrivaled talent pool, and these attributes put it firmly on the world map in terms of being a center activity for business across all sectors. How occupiers are thinking about the purpose of the office continues to evolve, but COVID is most definitely in the rearview mirror. Real estate and the office are firmly back on the agenda as a long-term strategic device. Businesses are undoubtedly opting for office-centric solutions, which continue to prove better, not just in terms of collaboration and productivity, but also for culture and well-being. Finally, location and connectivity, which are becoming more prevalent. Leadership teams increasingly wanting to make it as appealing as possible for their talent to be in the office rather than working from home. Consequently, being in the right location with the right transport links is key, and we certainly see this trend continuing.
As this slide shows, we've already seen a number of moves from large occupiers coming into more central locations, either from out of town or more periphery submarkets. There's a long list of smaller occupiers who have also made similar moves. This trend bodes well for our stock, being more centrally located. Occupational market supply on slide 31. As we've said before, averages rarely show the full picture, and this is particularly true when it comes to vacancy across London. The West End is tight at only 4.4% vacancy, which is only slightly higher than its long-term average. By contrast, the city is 11.9%, and Docklands at 16.7% are both double their long-term averages. Six months ago, there was some concern that 2023 would be a record year for development completions.
As can be seen on the chart, in fact, only 5 million sq ft was delivered, in line with historic levels as completions were delayed. Over the next four years, we're confident that the supply will remain constrained. Now turning to our leasing activity on slide 32. As Paul has mentioned, we had a very strong year for lettings, agreeing GBP 28.4 million of rent at an average of 8% premium to ERV. Our two pre-lets at 25 Baker Street to PIMCO and Moelis, which represented 56% of the total, were agreed at over 13% of the value rs' T December 2022 appraisal ERV. The building is now 75% pre-let, with an average lease term to break of 13.4 years.
As a reminder, PIMCO did not exercise their option on the fourth floor, which means that Moelis have now moved up, meaning the rent on the fourth floor is now increased from the GBP 95 per sq ft originally agreed with PIMCO to GBP 102.50 now payable by Moelis. This leaves us with the first and second floors, where we have encouraging interest. At Featherstone, 80% of the space is now leased to occupiers across a range of sectors, including advertising, engineering, online insurance, and healthcare. Again, we have good interest in the remainder. Our furnished and flexible space continues to meet market demand at the smaller end, with 19 lettings in the year at an average 9.2% premium to the adjusted ERV. I'm pleased to say that momentum has continued this year, with strong viewing and activity levels.
As of yesterday afternoon, we've completed over 2 million of leasing to date, including PLP at Whitechapel and Starbucks at 1 Oxford Street. In addition, we have a further 2.7 million under-offer, and there's good early interest at Network Building, which is due to complete in the second half of 2025. Over to asset management on slide 33. With businesses planning their future space needs at ever earliest stage, we're actively engaged with a number of occupiers on expiries in 2026, 2027, and beyond. In total, our asset management activity was up 30% compared to 2022 at GBP 41.5 million. The key transaction in the period was Paymentsense at Brunel Building, taking Splunk space under assignment, increasing its overall footprint by 150%. As part of the transaction, we removed the 2029 lease breaks on Paymentsense's existing floors and extended the expiry from 2034 to 2036.
On the new space, the term was extended by five years. Consequently, the term certain on these five floors was extended nearly six years overall to 12.7 years. In addition, we've proactively dealt with a significant amount of the lease breaks and expiries that were due in 2024, reducing them from 17% of passing rent at June 2023 to 10% at December. This has helped maintain our WALT at 6.5 years, or 7.4 years, on a topped-up basis. This activity helped reduce EPRA vacancy by a third to 4% at year-end, with momentum carrying through into 2024. Paul will shortly be talking you through the pipeline, but when it comes to our approach and overall offer, just a reminder that as well as the beautiful design of the individual assets, we take a considered portfolio approach, providing a superior overall product for the occupier.
This includes amenity and service via our DL/Member Initiative, a focus on long-term relationships, as well as a tangible sustainability agenda supported by our intelligent building software. While HQ space on longer leases remains at the center of what we do, we also have a growing furnished and flexible portfolio at the smaller end, ensuring we meet the breadth of London's varied demand. Together, these all contribute to our differentiated offer, having great appeal for today's demand. Thank you, and I'll now hand back to Paul.
Thank you, Emily. Now onto developments on slide 36. We've made good progress at 25 Baker Street and Network, both being on program. At December, our appraisals showed a 13% profit on cost and a 5.8% yield. The reduction compared to June is principally because the values have moved the investment yield out. Baker Street was, of course, helped by the very strong pre-lets. These developments offer best-in-class office space with substantial amenity and leading environmental credentials, and we expect they will deliver ongoing outperformance at completion. More on 25 Baker Street. I believe the building will be another fantastic example of a Derwent quality and design. The superstructure of this 298,000 sq ft scheme has completed, and the glazing is now being installed on the main office block. As our fourth net-zero carbon building, it is being delivered responsibly.
The current embodied carbon estimate is 600 kg per sq m. We're targeting BREEAM Outstanding, and it will be our first NABERS UK rated building. Demand for the residential is strong, as you've heard from Nigel. We have de-risked the majority of the offices with excellent interest in the remainder. Rents have been very strong. Turning over. Designed by award-winning Hopkins Architects, it occupies an island site in the heart of the Portman Estate in Marylebone. It provides beautiful, amenity-rich office space with generous rooftop terraces alongside much-needed new retail and F&B set around a delightful landscaped courtyard. The façade incorporates a range of luxurious materials, including Portland stone and pre-carved concrete. It has fantastic open-plan floor plates with Derwent's signature generous floor-to-ceiling heights. Turning now to our on-site development at Network. Network, our 139,000 sq ft office-led scheme, has been designed with sustainability at its core.
It will be all-electric, and we are targeting BREEAM outstanding, plus a minimum NABERS UK rating of 4.5 stars. Embodied carbon is expected to be 530 kilos per square meter. Turning over. This 25 design scheme is in the heart of Fitzrovia, and it's making good progress. The building has an expansive communal roof terrace, wonderful stone and pre-carved concrete façade, opening windows, and a beautiful, generous reception. It has an exceptional on-site amenity and benefits from close proximity to DL/78, our other member lounge. With 3 m floor-to-ceiling heights, the office floors have been designed to maximize natural light. It will be adaptable, providing occupiers with the best blank canvas in which they can project their brand and which will stand the test of time. We're very encouraged by the level of interest at this early stage. Our medium-term pipeline is on slide 41.
Totaling 390,000 sq ft, our next phase of projects comprise two great buildings in the core of the West End. We're proposing to commence our office-led scheme at Holden House in mid-2025. The 150,000 sq ft development designed by architects DSDHA will also benefit from the increase in retail demand and hence rents resulting from the opening of the Elizabeth Line opposite. We will retain the façade, which was originally designed by Charles Holden, the architect for many iconic London underground stations. At 50 Baker Street, which we own in a 50/50 joint venture with Lazari Investments, we have submitted a planning application for a 240,000 sq ft office-led scheme designed by AHMM, with whom we have worked many times. The outcome of the planning submission is due in H1 this year. We will then work up the detailed plan to start on site in early 2026. Our longer-term projects.
Over the longer term, our pipeline totals nearly 1 million sq ft of mixed-use spaces. Projects at Old Street Quarter and 230 Blackfriars Road on the South Bank will help continue the regeneration of these submarkets. Now onto refurbishments on slide 43. Derwent is well-known for its refurbishment skills. This is where it all began. We expect refurbishments will form a greater element of overall CapEx over the coming years. As shown on this slide, we see a good opportunity to deliver significant rental uplifts from these schemes with improving sustainability credentials, which should result in attractive valuation uplifts. So in conclusion, great design, a relationship-driven approach, and our focus on portfolio-wide amenity sets our distinctive product apart. Combined with our 72% West End rating, the outlook for rental growth is positive.
Our confidence in the prospects for our on-site and future projects, which total nearly 1.8 million sq ft, means we will continue to start them on a speculative basis. Our strategic positioning is supported by ongoing strength and appeal of London. This truly amazing global city appeals to both occupiers across a broad range of sectors and a diverse range of investors. The office is widely viewed as a core strategic asset. Occupiers want to be in the best building, and this is what we are providing and letting. The macro environment has put capital values under pressure over the last 18 months, but we believe we're now approaching the low point of this cycle. With inflation continuing to trend lower, the improvement in cost and availability of debt over the last few months is feeding through into increasing stability in the investment market.
Our strong balance sheet gives us capacity to continue investing in our pipeline and to explore the opportunities that are beginning to emerge. In summary, as you have seen, we have the right product in the right location, and occupiers pay a premium rent secure it. Thank you very much. Now for Q&A, we'll take questions from the room first before going to the telephone lines and then to the webcast. Please.
Hi, good morning. It's Rob Jones from BNP Paribas Exane. I've got a question on ERVs, one on solar and one on yields. On ERVs, your overall figure, I think, was 8% ahead for this year versus Dec. 2022 on GBP 28 million of rents. If you strip out the GBP 16 million of pre-lets, I think the leasing ahead of ERV was 2%. And obviously, ERV growth during the year was also about 2%. For next year, you guide to overall ERV growth, the whole portfolio, I think, +2% to +5%. What gives you the confidence, or I guess can you give me the confidence that you will end 2024 with ERVs ex development leasing activity up?
Well, firstly, I think we've got a great portfolio. We've got some great refurbishments in some great buildings. We've sold a lot of assets that we felt that there was limited ERV growth. But if you look at some of the buildings we've got across the portfolio, whether it's Stephen Street or in Victoria, you remember our Francis House scheme on a refurbishment there, we were at 8% sorry, 16% above ERV. So we have got a great, great portfolio. Obviously, this flight to quality is continuing, which is why we're investing in the portfolio and developing further. But I think the underlying portfolio is excellent. And I think after a few years of limited rental growth across London, it's time for occupiers to be paying more rent, and I think they should pay more rent. And I think the reality is it's a very small percentage there overhead.
We reckon 6%-8% on rental growth. And I think occupiers will pay good rents to be in a good building, but also with all the amenities that we're offering. So we are confident of this. We got 2.1% last year on a pretty difficult macro world. And I think we've got, as I say, the right product in the right location, 70-odd%. So I remain confident that our ERV guidance is the right guidance. But thank you, Rob, for that question.
So yes, onto solar. Lochfauld up just north of Glasgow. The 100 acres, I think it was 110 before, but what's 10 acres between friends? The yield on cost that you're expecting there, can you give a figure for that? I'm guessing it might be one of the highest in terms of your development.
I would defer to the King of Scotland for that question. Nigel.
Yeah, I mean, there's a couple of things that sort of make it attractive there. We are right next to the grid. The grid has the capacity, so we don't have big capital costs to connect to the grid. Our main costs are the land's pretty small. The main costs are the panels. So you're looking at sort of GBP 20-odd million for the panels. I mean, we think the revenue could be about GBP 1.3 million-GBP 1.4 million on that. Now, the planning will have a 25-year life. The panels probably have a 30-35-year life. So that's a sort of cash flow yield on it, 1.3 on 20.
Plus, I think the land or the assets of that entity is about GBP 4.7 million or something like that.
Yeah, I mean, we have 5,500 acres, and the whole lot is worth, I think, GBP 30 million. So you're looking at a few thousand GBP an acre for that sort of land. And it doesn't have any housing potential land, so it's very much that.
I think also, Rob, that it's a key differentiator. We're going to provide 40%-50% of green electricity to our portfolio. So really dark green electricity to our occupiers would be great for total retention. Every occupier we know are focused on their carbon outputs. The others who provide them with cool green Derwent branded electricity, I think, is pretty good.
We'll set up what they call a sleeve agreement, which is basically we put that into the grid, and we're allowed to take it out down here.
Then the last one quickly on yields. In your outlook comment in a press release this morning, you obviously talked about inflation coming down, and I think you said something like yields will follow. To me, I read that as when rates come down, you expect yields to also trend downwards, potentially in 2024, and therefore capital values up. Do you disagree?
I think you read well, but obviously, I think the reality is I think we expect sort of cuts in interest rates. I think inflation's come down. I think we think that yields will follow, and I think we'll find some value should start seeing recovery. We're certainly seeing on the investment market more interesting assets coming out. So let's see how it goes and see how the cuts come along. But I think after some pretty big increases, I think we're expecting things to improve. Do you want to add anything to that, Nigel?
No, I mean, we mentioned we are seeing more on the market. We're getting the old approach and stuff, so it's starting to unwind. Damian can probably comment on the availability of the financing market, but it is starting to unwind on the availability of stock and transaction.
Yeah, I think to some extent it's dependent on the timing and the extent of cuts in base rates by the Bank of England. So we have to be aware that things are still tight out there. We do see that easing, though. You might see some further outward yield shift in the first half, but it does feel as though that pressure's easing, and it could reverse a bit in the second. But we'll have to wait and see. There's a lot of macro data to absorb before we can take a firm view on that.
Thanks, Rob. Right, sorry. Randa, sorry. Sorry, is that all right?
Randa Cohen from Berenberg. Just following on the rental side of things, 2.1% ERV growth. You kindly break up the valuation move by different quality of buildings. Can you do that for the ERV, or could you do it by EPC rating, something like that, just to give us a feel of the range of ERVs that you're achieving?
Well, I think the West End is obviously doing better than the rest. If I look at the new lettings we've been doing in Whitechapel and in Featherstone, they've held up very well, but they've been pretty, I would say, pretty flat. But we've been, given the fact that the vacancy rate in the City board area is a bit higher, so we've been pretty pleased with those sort of rents. So I think from a location point of view, the further west you go, the higher the growth is probably where we do. And obviously, our better buildings are outperforming.
Yeah, I mean, our probably weakest submarket is Whitechapel, but we're now getting we've had quite a good activity there, and we've hit bad, bad, bad, bad in line with the ERV at Whitechapel. So start with there and then move to the West End where it's much stronger.
I think the 2% is obviously the portfolio valuation as well, which includes a lot of the pre-development stock. The 8% that Rob queried earlier is on all new lettings. The pre-lets are actually ahead of that, sort of 13%. Those new lettings are of a variety of quality. That's probably a decent measure of that as well.
We do see a green premium. If you look at our Tea Building, the rents for that building are substantially higher for things that are green tea rather than builders' tea, if you want to call it. So you'll see going back to your point about EPCs and stuff like that, I think there is a green premium. I think people want to make sure they're in a sustainable building, and I think we've got some good evidence to support that.
Yeah, I'd probably add, sorry, Miranda, I'd add one more thing. I mean, we said our available was about 10.6 at year-end. 30% of that has now been either let or under offer at those 3-4 ERVs. So two months into the year of our available, we're talking or agreed terms on or let 30% of that. And I think that gives us a bit of confidence.
Sorry. Those.
Callum Marley from Kolytics. Just following up on some of those questions. First one on ERVs. Is it fair to assume that going forward, that some of those positive ERV numbers you guided to might start flowing through to your like-for-like numbers and remain positive in real terms? And then on that, what are the offsets? So obviously, energy costs were quite high last year. That's expected to come down this year. Could that be offset by potentially a higher increase in lounge and customer service charges?
Do you want to start with each of those?
Yeah, sure. I mean, we've given quite a lot of information on this on slide 11. The reason for that is because there are lots of moving parts. These lounges are fabulous. They obviously cost money to run. We believe it's good value for money, but it does feed through to the net rents. Other costs do seem to be getting more under control. We had a very big spike in costs in the second half of last year and the first half of this year. A lot of that's come down. Energy costs appear to be stabilizing. So I think it's fair to say that we expect to see the net-to-gross improve a little bit in 2024. It's going to be quite marginal, though, all this. It all depends on vacancy rates and exactly what happens and when.
We do start to see a world where rental growth potentially can start to be higher than cost inflation. That's not something we've seen now for quite a few years in the London office sector. It does feel as though there's a beginning of a change of atmosphere.
Thank you. Two more, sorry. Just on the yields, so you expect capital recycling to increase this year following a hesitant investment market in 2023. Could you provide a little color on maybe where the bid-ask spread is between buyers and sellers, and would you be willing to sell assets below book value this year in order to hit your disposal run rate?
We've always been a recycling business, and I think if someone came with a good sporting bid, was close to the valuation, and we felt actually done our job, I think we'd be sensible about that. We've got options, so we don't need to sell. We need to buy, but we'd like to do a bit more recycling. So I think it depends what it is. I think, obviously, we've obviously sold a lot of those assets over the last five years where we thought there wasn't any growth. So I think we'd be pretty firm in prices, but I think we're always going to be sensible about it. So Nigel, do you want to add anything to that?
I think you've got to be realistic and judge each asset as and when, I think, but we'll have to see. But we are going to probably do a bit more recycling. If this leads to good acquisitions, if we'd sold something a little bit below but we thought actually bought something really interesting at a really good price, I think we'd look at it in that sort of balance.
Final one, please. There was a slide there that spoke about the development profit on cost around 13%. If I look at your kind of discount to gross asset value today, that's around 27%. What are you pencilling in for future development, future profit on costs, given that quite large disconnect? And then maybe where do you start considering alternative capital allocation decisions?
Well, just to stop you at that bit, the first part of the question.
Yeah, if I just take you back to sort of the value as numbers, which we show the 13%, they're putting spec yields on it. There's concern over delivery. This is just the general assumptions on appraisals. There's quite a lot of moving parts. I think it's fair to say values have gone on the cautious side, shall we say, at this moment in time. And if you look at that 13, if we get the lettings right and the yield moved in, say, 25, so you've gone from a spec to a spec to a pre-let on the rest of it, that 13 would take you up to 17% profit on cost. If we achieve, say, the sort of increases in rent we've achieved on the pre-letting of Baker Street, say, another, I don't know, say, GBP 10, that would then take you up to a 23%.
If you get a bit more bullish, so your range can probably be 13 to probably 25. The yield on costs would then move up probably into the low to mid-60s. An optimistic view, we feel that probably should be where the market settles, and we should be able to achieve that. The value is very cautious at the moment.
We approach our appraisals cautiously. We put interest on the land as well. We don't sort of capitalize development costs, fees, and stuff like that. So it's a fairly cautious view. You'll find, actually, historically, we've always likely done better than the slide right at the end. Irrespective of your capital allocation, we obviously look at all options. At the moment, we feel development's making good returns. They've got opportunity to make even better returns going forward. We seem to be making the right product. We see demand very good for new developments. I think that's what we're continuing to invest in. But if we felt there are other ways to allocate capital, we certainly could consider it. Right, sorry. Question at the back. Thank you very much.
Just a couple more questions on the capital side, please. These investment opportunities that you're seeing emerging, can you give us a sense of what they are? Are you going to be active in buying more future development stock? What's the volume of acquisitions we might expect over the next couple of years? And then in terms of funding that, how far would you push your LTV to pursue them?
Well, there'll be a couple of interesting assets put on the market recently in the West End, which we had a good look at and actually a very well-bid. Charterhouse Street was very well-bid. The building that had been let to WeWork, and it was very well-bid. And I think a lot of people looked at it and were quite keen. I think Vogue House also in Hanover Square was very well-bid. So there's a few sort of opportunity-plus type assets out there that didn't suit us at the time, but we did have a good look at it. Irrespective of the sort of gearing, I mean, we're at under 28%. I'd be prepared to push it a little bit more, maybe into the early 30s if the right asset came along, maybe a little higher in the short term.
But I've got to keep my finance director happy as well, so I think around that sort of level. But I think we are feeling we feel there's some opportunity that's going to come our way. We will recycle a bit, and if we see something really interesting, we should look to buy. We've got that capital. Our money is good. We are able to act very quickly, and we're always out there looking.
Yeah. We've always prized low leverage, and we continue to do so. It gives us options and makes the business resilient. So I think we could stretch the LTV a little bit. We've previously indicated we'd move up to perhaps 35%. Obviously, yields have moved out quite a bit in getting the LTV to where it is today. We focus, as you know, much more on interest cover than we do on LTV. And I think it's important to keep that in mind. The interest cover only fell very marginally last year to 4.1 times. So there's a balance here all the way through. But I think the balance sheet's clearly got a little bit of capacity, but we are a recycler, and we will continue to recycle in the normal way.
Just one follow-up question, and related, is. Should you therefore be more active in selling the large developments completed in the last cycle, ones that you can no longer add as big a value to, take the capital out of them and recycle into these investment opportunities that you're seeing in the market that could have potentially higher returns?
Well, possibly. I mean, we obviously got a three-year rule, so things like Soho Place was only recently completed. We may look at one of the bigger assets in due course. We want to obviously have a strong investment market for that. I'm sure they'd be very well-bid. I mean, they're very well-let on long leases, and we'd obviously consider it. I don't think necessarily very much in the short term, but we've recycled bigger assets in the past, the more mature assets. Obviously, you've got some buildings in a bigger state than Fitzrovia altogether, so breaking that up would give us some thought. But yes, we would be minded at some stage, but not immediately.
I think those very large lot sizes, I think, are dependent on availability and cost of finance as well. So I think as we see that ease, which we're expecting to see, I think you'll see that market improve. So definitely something for the future.
Yes. Oh, sorry. Who was arms up first, is it? Sorry.
It's Adam Sheridan at Green Street. Maybe apologies if this is just a different way of asking the same question Ben just asked, but looking at your mix of core income and other on slide 5 and thinking about maintaining, particularly the ICR, in a, dare I say, a sort of more normalized interest rate environment going forward and what you've said about the cycle, is this the mix that you expect to have in 3-4 years, or do you want and need to grow the core income share of the portfolio?
I mean, historically, we've been happy with a 50/50 split between core income and opportunities. And at the moment, to have obviously more on this sort of core income side is pretty good. So at the moment, 56/44 feels pretty comfortable to me. Nigel, yours?
Yeah. I mean, we've tracked this many years, and it's averaged about 50/50. But it's been right to have core income as.
If your cost of debt stays at 5% or so for five years, is that still comfortable? Thinking about your ICR and what you just said about.
Yeah. I mean, the equivalent yield on the portfolio is now, at all, slightly above the cost of long-term debt. So it's obviously an interesting balance that. I mean, debt is not as accretive as it was two or three years ago, so we have to adjust to that. That, again, supports our low-leverage business model. But I think we can see one of the things we look for is the visibility of earnings. So if you can get pre-lets on developments, you can take a little bit more risk and perhaps add a bit more value add. But it's a matter of balancing those things out finally. We are keen to grow the earnings again. This is a business which has done that for many years. It's been challenging since 2019 with rental growth lagging, cost inflation.
But that does feel as though it's potentially about to move on the other side.
Then on the CapEx, so the GBP 35 million this year, up quite a bit since last year. If I interpret the Slide 13 correctly, not a lot of that has gone on EPC upgrades this year. Can you sort of give some color on the return you're getting on that CapEx if we think about it as sort of, in inverted commas, defensive? How does that feed through into ERV growth?
These are the refurbishments. They really vary from quite small floor-by-floor, unit-by-unit refurbishments, but some of which can make money, some of which don't always, to quite large refurbishments like the ones we did down in Victoria, which can be as profitable as a major development.
Has it helped your ERV growth outlook?
Yes. I think on the whole, we are very positive about these schemes. We think by upgrading that space, we can grow rents quite significantly. And so it's actually part of the business model going forward. Yeah. It's quite hard to give you precise figures because there is quite a range. But we're comfortable that these are accretive overall.
Okay. And one last one, if that's okay. On the tenants, and to some extent, they appear to be there in the first half, is it sort of the same set of problems, or is it sort of cycling through? There's a bit of a drift of issues with retail and measures.
Yeah. It's very much from the first half, really. There is still weakness among some of the smaller retailers. We have a choice as a landlord to either support those retailers or take the space back and perhaps have vacant units. People like gym operators are struggling with margins. The view we've taken in some of these cases is better to have them there paying some costs, keeping the building alive.
Sorry. Have there been new cases in the second half, or is it the same?
There have been one or two small failures among tenants. In a portfolio of this size, there always are. But these are really quite small amounts that we're talking about. Overall, it's, what, 1% roughly of rental income? That's probably a reasonable number going forwards.
All right. Thank you.
One more.
Any other questions? No? Have we got any questions for telephone lines?
No.
Not on the webcast. Well, I suppose I should wrap up and say thank you very much for attending today. We'll run later if anyone wants to have any further questions and come and talk to. Oh, we do have a question.
[audio distortion]
Paul Bay. Okay. Paul.
Probably too late.
Your line is open, sir. You may proceed.
Hi, everyone. Sorry about that. I was a bit of a bit late pressing the buttons. Thanks for taking the questions. Just a couple of from me. Sorry to go over a little bit of old ground. You mentioned around yield expansion versus financing cost and yield on cost versus financing cost. Just going back to the last time rates kind of stabilised, if you look at the five-year swap, around 4% was around 2002, 2003. I think around that sort of time, yield in your portfolio was about 100. The initial yield about 100 basis points higher. Reversion yield about 150 basis points higher than it is today. What makes you think that buyers are willing to accept a much tighter spread to financing cost, and why should valuations have a much tighter spread to financing cost today versus previously when rates were this sort of level? Thanks.
Well, that's quite a long time ago. I think probably a lot of it comes down to what's happened to rents in the meantime, the affordability of rents. And we've come through a pretty exceptional decade where QE has brought financing rates down, brought yields down. And as a sector, we've actually seen rental growth being rather slow. As that reverses, there is perhaps room for rents to start growing again. So Paul, it's a very complicated question, and I think we'd perhaps talk about it in private. But I think our view at the moment is there is room for this to be an acceptable rate. We also expect the cost of borrowing to come down a bit once the Bank of England starts cutting rates. We saw that last year. We think rates may come down a bit further.
I think there's a sense that there's rental growth to come which will improve this balance.
I think that's right.
Is it possible to just a quick follow-up and ask it in a slightly different way? You mentioned about looking at acquisition opportunities. Would you be paying similar initial yields to your portfolio today for those, or would you have to accept a higher initial yield to take advantage of those acquisitions?
I suppose that, Kate, depends what you're buying.
It depends what you're buying and what the opportunities are. Is there a near-term growth opportunity, floor area, or repositioning the building? I mean, historically, we've never had to worry too much about the initial yield on something if there was two-three years income ready to be repositioned. So I'm afraid the answer to that question is it depends what you're buying and what it is. I think if it's something where we can add value and reposition it or regear the lease or something, then we would certainly look at it.
I think quite a good example is something like Blackfriars, which is 60,000 sq ft, big car park at the back. A basic redevelopment could put 200,000 sq ft on there. There's another little bit next door which you sort of own. If you bought that into play, you could be looking at 500,000 sq ft. Now, that's a 10-year play. So the answer is you would be happy to pay these sort of yields if you could find that sort of stock. It's not easy, though, but we have done it in the past.
Okay. Then just a final one wrapping it all together. I think you mentioned a few times financing cost not being particularly attractive or accretive at the current stage. Does that imply, I mean, just looking at your net debt to LTVs is high relative to, say, U.S. peers? So on that metric, you are quite levered. Would you be then looking at equity funding, seeing that happening more and more in the space? Just wondering, is that a preferred method of funding expansion? Thank you.
I mean, at the right time. I think the idea is the right one. I think this perhaps isn't quite the right time now, but we are believers in scale, and at some point, we'd like the business to grow. So the conditions aren't quite right today, but I think we would definitely see equity as one of the options going forward.
That's right.
Paul, just going back to your earlier question, I just had a bit more time to think about it. 2002 was a long time ago. I mean, I think one thing to bear in mind is the quality of our portfolio today is substantially higher than it was in 2002. We had a lot of raw material in those days where you'd expect to see a higher yield. Today, we've got much more in the way of completed stock. So I think we should go away and look at this together, perhaps quietly, but I'd expect to see quite a lot lower yields on the portfolio today than 20-odd years ago.
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Paul.
Noted on the scale. We agree.
All right. Thank you. We've got one more, I think, Robby.
Our next question over the phone comes from Pieter Runneboom with Kempen. Please go ahead.
Hi, team. Thanks a lot for taking my questions, the last ones. Actually, one, if I look at the asset management activity in 2023 and looking at the new rents versus the ERVs from the year before, I see quite a slowdown there. Could you maybe give a bit more additional color on that? So the new rent versus ERVs in asset management activity came in at +1.7% versus +5.3% the year before.
Yeah. This is page 35.
They're all very individual. I don't think you can build a trend from that. Also, some of them are where we're trying to gear up for redevelopment down the line, so you're a little bit more flexible on it. But it's not really something you can draw a straight line on. That's how I answer that.
That's good to know. Then think a bit about the bid-ask spread. If we're looking at assets that are currently being offered to you in the market or that you see that are up for sale, in your view, what percentage of this is currently priced attractive or correctly, so to say?
What's the question?
Bid-ask spread on investment. Yeah. I mean, I think last year, you didn't actually have a great deal out on the market. That's starting to happen now. The sector's seen valuation corrections. Those have felt feeding through to the numbers. And speaking to the various agents out there, there's quite a lot more coming up. As we touched on earlier, there's been quite a few sort of—what's the phrase?—extend and pretend last couple of years. And we're seeing a few of those actually saying, "No, now's the time to sell the buildings." And there's been two, three, or four of those buildings out on the market, so.
Yeah. We certainly see a few more both in the U.S. settings. So I think you'll see a bit more activity this year.
I think last year, it was down, but I think you're seeing more assets being put on the market, more realistic pricing. That should play to our strengths. Okay. Thank you very much, Steve, for your questions. I think we are wrapping up now. Thank you, everyone, for their time. Have a good day. We're around if anyone wants to speak to us. Right. Thank you. Paul.
This presentation has now ended.