Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Energean Trading of Day conference call. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mathias Rigas, CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, a very Happy New Year. Good morning, everyone. A very Happy New Year from me to all of you. Thank you for joining us today in what is a trading update and our guidance for 2022. 2023, sorry. Starting with page 3 of the presentation, I want to highlight the record financial results of the last year with $730 million of revenues and EBITDA of $419 million. A fantastic year for us. I want to remind everyone that we only started with our big flagship project in 2018. Before that, we were a company that was producing just on Greece.
Today we are on track to become a $2.5 billion revenue generator and a $1.75 billion EBITDA producer. These are great numbers that have been achieved with hard work and delivery of all of our promises. That's, I think, the key message. We said in March of 2018 when we took the final investment decision on Karish, that we would deliver a project, a major project, and we delivered it in 2022. This is 4.5 years with COVID in between. I think it's a remarkable achievement that brings us to where we are today with a solid foundation to continue our future.
Our group liquidity, one of the key targets for us to make sure that all our projects are continuously, fully funded, stood at $719 million. This is due to the excellent job that our team has done, not only to produce cash flows, but also to raise capital at the right point in time for us. As I mentioned earlier, Karish came on stream, a fantastic achievement. The FPSO is being commissioned and I know that some may have expressed concerns why ramp up hasn't achieved the rates we were hoping for, but I think the key message here is that the gas that we delivered is on spec. The wells have delivered exactly as planned with the liquidity yield that we were expecting, and commissioning within February will be finished.
I remind everyone again, this is a major capital project that we delivered in four and a half years. No issues that we didn't expect, no issues that cannot be handled. Currently on track to finish everything by February and start the ramp up or continue the ramp up to achieve the results that we expect to see in 2023. Energean, as I said many times before, is not just about delivery of existing projects. It's not just about stable cash flow and predictability of a dividend stream, which is the bedrock of our business. We have committed to clients to deliver gas to them for the next 15 years. We are going to do that. That will generate the cash flow we expect to pay the dividends we promised. It's also about growth.
During 2020, we drilled 5 wells and discovered approximately 75 BCM of gas through our drilling campaign. Just a small reminder also, in 2018, when we started with Karish and Tanin, we were having 67, 68 BCM of gas to deal with, and we created the company that you see today. We promised in the beginning of 2022 we would double the resource base of Energean. Pretty much that's what we did. We have in our hands today exactly the same amount that Energean started on in 2018. What we plan to do with this gas is to deliver a project, and we will talk about that later today. It will allow us to double the size of the company over the next years.
Think about us as a company that will deliver a stable cash flow and dividend stream, but will also focus on growth. Focus on growth in gas in the Mediterranean that we know well. There is still a lot of opportunities to deliver. We have a number of projects that we're working on. We'll cover them later. They're all on track to get to the 200,000 gallon a day mark, but then we will also continue to grow. The third key highlight for today is on the corporate side and the ESG side. We did deliver our first dividend during 2022, $60 per share. $1.20 annualized. Two quarters of dividends, representing a yield of about 7.5% during 2022. We will continue to pay our quarterly dividends as we promised.
Although ESG issues and CO₂ issues during the crisis of 2022 were not at the top of the agenda. Top of the agenda was security of supply and affordable energy, especially in Europe. We are firmly committed to our 2050 net zero strategy, and we are on track to reduce our near term carbon emissions to about 7 or 8 kilos of CO₂ per barrel of oil equivalent. Our commitment to ESG and our commitment to the strategy that we've outlined a couple of years back has resulted in a significant increase in our CDP scoring to A- from B, outperforming the A and B global average, which is about C. Moving to page 4, just a quick overview of our production.
We've hit 41,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, 75% of that gas, obviously the majority coming from Egypt, demonstrating the importance of the acquisition of the Edison assets for us during 2022. For 2023, and I'm switching now to page 5 of the presentation, we expect to be around a 140,000 barrel a day equivalent mark. Obviously, Karish will ramp up to our initial 6.5 BCM per year capacity, giving us roughly 100,000 barrels equivalent of production. Egypt, Abu Qir, we're continuously optimizing the production, both the wells and the facilities. We expect Egypt to give us about 30,000 barrels of production equivalent, both from the countries.
Gas, big chunk of our Israel production, obviously gas, but most importantly, gas that is sold either to Israeli buyers with long-term gas contracts, but also to the Egyptian government, through an improved gas price that we achieved in 2022. The last group of countries, Greece continues to produce. Italy, Croatia, and the UK, an additional 10,000 barrels during 2023, giving us a total expected of 140,000 barrels midpoint. Obviously, we hope and we will do our best to increase that. With that, I would like to hand over to Panos to take us through our financial results.
Thank you, Mathios. Good morning to everyone, and Happy New Year. As Mathios mentioned, 2022 was not only a key year with critical milestones achieved for our company, but a record year in terms of revenue and profitability of our producing assets. We produced above 41,000 barrels a day. 75% of that is gas. Recorded revenues well above $700 million. Most importantly, we did keep our cost of production well under control at similar levels to last year, in spite of the huge inflationary pressures the world, and especially our industry, had to deal with. We spent $700 million in CapEx. This is roughly $100 million less than what we had guided it, but that is just something that has been shifted in 2023. Liquidity of half a billion.
Actually, we have available lines that take that number close to three-quarters of a billion. A net debt position of $2.5 billion. Again, not only we did meet our dividend commitment as communicated in early 2022, but we actually accelerated that by a quarter. We paid 2 quarters, so $0.30 each. That takes us to the $0.60 per share. We're very confident with that, we will continue with not only our minimum commitment, but we will do our best to overshoot that. In 2023, our guidance is to achieve close to 3.5 times or 4 times our production levels of 2022. We have guided 130,000-160,000 barrels a day. Our cash cost of production, double to what it was next year.
I want that to compare that versus the production increase. As you can see, we continue being an extremely low-cost producer, that reflects our ability to sustain and be profitable whatever the volatility of commodity prices. Our CapEx numbers remain roughly the same. We have $100 million coming from last year on Karish. Actually, it's gonna be the first year since our IPO that most of that development exploration commitment shifts outside Israel, especially in our Cassiopeia and Egyptian projects that are getting very close to getting into production. Finally, our consolidated net debt will stay roughly at the same levels. We're guiding $2.6 billion-$2.8 billion. I'm pretty confident we will be at the lower range, if not lower than that.
Moving to next slide 7. We have been emphasizing for a long time, and I think that has served us very well, especially being able to navigate these difficult times with COVID. Our commitment to strong balances, a capital structure to allow a company of our size and growth profile, to meet Number 1 now our dividend commitment to our shareholders, at least $1 billion by end of 2025. We started with $50 million per quarter, and we aim while when we meet our medium-term targets, to get that number closer, if not higher than $100 million per quarter. Number 2, our organic growth. Our four sanctioned projects are well underway.
One has been delivered, although we do have some growth projects attached to it. We will be discussing that in the next slides. Of course, the development of our newly discovered resources in the Olympus area that we're very excited about. We will be communicating our plans much more clearly in the next few months. Third pillar, M&A. Our M&A transactions have served us very, very well until now. We are very happy for the transactions that we have done and executed. I have to say we're equally happy for the ones that we didn't do. We lost to others because of price mainly. We do stay disciplined. We do want and we do assess all available opportunities in the region.
We do have some very high investment hurdles to meet internally. Now we need to add another one that no transaction will undermine our dividend commitments and the shareholder returns we have started delivering to our shareholders. Finally, our target for a sustainable long-term leverage is still a high focus and a key focus for us. We expect our leverage position to drop well below 1.5 times in the next 18-24 months. I have said a few times that the first maturities in Israeli bonds are the ones that are attracting most of our attention now, especially the 2024 ones are the ones that we will try to refinance when and if the market is there.
We're not in under stress, but of course, we need to keep our debt profile being the long and the strong one that we have, we have had in the past. I want to remind everyone that our current debt profile has an average life of four and a half years and an average cost of debt of just above 5%. That compares with reserves that have an average life of more than 15 years, and this is not tail reserves at the very end. We're talking about assets that have very long plateau well into the next decade. A lot of room to optimize this debt profile even further, but of course, our focus remains to reduce our leverage to a more sustainable and long-term level.
Moving to next page, as Mathios mentioned, our ESG commitment has brought us in best in class in our sector, not with bold statements and glossy presentations, but with very specific actions and strategic choices we have and continue making. Our increased gas production with our newly sanctioned projects, as well as asset optimization, that has been initiated in all our legacy assets, have put us on track to reduce our carbon intensity well below the 10 kilos per barrel of oil equivalent, which is less than half the sector average. Of course, our efforts on developing the Prinos CCS, the only advanced type of asset in this in the region at least, are progressing well.
We have completed the pre-FEED, which is getting analyzed, of course, we will be keeping you posted on our next steps. All the above, of course, have been well-recognized by the independent and reputable agencies that have upgraded our rating. CDP has increased us to A minus from B. Maala index rating to platinum from gold. Of course, we still have maintained the double A from MSCI for a second year running. Moving to slide 10. 2022 was a key year for our Karish project, where we met key milestone, and throughout the year, we were focusing on sail away from Singapore, then the attention shifted to first gas, then the wells opening, and if they deliver as expected that they do.
Of course, our first sales that have been recorded towards the last weeks of 2022. Now, this is all behind us. 2023, very, very soon, and that is Q1, we will be completing our commissioning phase and reaching our initial capacity of over 6 BCM per year. Of course, with our growth projects, the Karish North tieback, the second riser and the oil train installed in the second half of the year, we expect to reach a final capacity of 8 BCM per year. On page 11, we have outlined here all our projects. Our medium-term target now doesn't look that long and the path to achieve that, we're talking about the next 18 months. The company that ended 2022 with 40,000 barrels will produce five to six times more that.
This is on the back of suction projects that as of today, at least, we have no reason to believe they're not on track. As I said before, we're spending heavily now in our projects outside Israel. NEA/NI is the first one that we expect to achieve first gas from the first well in the next few weeks. Of course, the other 3 wells are expected to come on stream throughout 2023. Karish North and the growth projects are expected to be completed in towards the mid-year in Q3 2023. Cassiopeia is getting into its final stages.
We expect alongside DNI to bring that very important gas field, the only gas field that will come on stream in Italy and the whole of Southeast Europe on stream, in the next years, at least based on what we understand. That is on track of course, and the Epsilon project that we expect to bring on stream in 2024. The end result is gonna be a production well above 200,000 barrels a day. This is not gonna be a plateau that we will reach only for a few months or a couple of years. This is a plateau that will stay at similar levels , for the rest of the decade and well into the 2030.
75% our projects are gas, and of course, the profile of that revenue and barrels of oil equivalent do enjoy a protection of floor prices or fixed prices, especially in Israel and Egypt. Mathios, back to you for the Olympus area development options. Mathios?
Yes, sorry.
Sorry.
As I said before, during 2022, we discovered and de-risked a total of 75, roughly BCM of gas in Israel. That equates to the volume that we had when we started with our project in 2018. Question is, what do you do with this gas? We have a number of options. The most boring obvious one is to just backfill the FPSO, continue producing 8 BCM for a longer period of time, extend our plateau, push back the Tanin development. As you can see from page 12, the block 12 discoveries are closer to our FPSO, so lower CapEx, giving us a huge NPV boost, if we just optimize the production. Is that what we would like to do? No, that's not our first choice.
Our first choice is to either increase the FPSO capacity. The technical team is already looking at options of what we can do to bring another gas train on to allow us to use this great machine that we built, which is exactly the reason why we chose an FPSO. We wanted to have the option to commercialize discoveries that are sitting next to the main production hub. Our strategy is proven to be the correct one.
Either we increase the FPSO capacity and continue to sell to the Israeli market, and I will ask Nick to comment a little bit about the commercial situation in Israel, or we have the big gas demand that has been created in the region, increase obviously with what happened with the war between Russia and Ukraine, giving us a region that needs gas. I've said it many times before, when you have gas in a region that needs gas, you will find solutions.
We have an option to go to Egypt, that we communicated before, that we have signed an MOU with the Egyptian government, to allow us to commercialize gas, to Egypt, or we can go north into Cyprus and into Europe, with new pipelines, either, with partners, or with industry or financial partners to minimize the CapEx impact on us and access much higher priced markets, like the European one that we can get to, through Cyprus. I think, what I want to conclude with on this slide is that we have always kept in mind that our strategy is to get the safest, quickest, and highest return sales that we can achieve.
We've proven, back in 2018, we were just a piece of paper, PowerPoint presentation, and we convinced the Israeli buyers to trust us, and we've proven that we can deliver on our promises. We now have a much more solid production base. We have infrastructure in place. We have an FPSO, pipelines that go to Israel, pipelines that connect us to Egypt, development options that we can bring this gas into Europe. We will be communicating our plans and taking an FID on the Olympus area within 2023. More specifically, we target to do that in the first half of 2023.
With the demand for gas we see in the region, I have no worries that this gas will bring a significantly higher price than what we have achieved to date in the start of our project. Nick, do you wanna say a few words about the commercial situation in Israel?
Yep. Thank you, Mathios. Yes, I think, just harking back to what Mathios just said then, I think, one of the advantages we had in our first project was simplicity and focus. We made a decision very early on about the development concept. We were helped by the fact that the gas in Karish continuing with the domestic market. We were successful by that focus and by moving quickly. This time round, we have more options, which is, if you like, a blessing and a curse, as Mathios said. The regional market has warmed up significantly. We can look at and are looking at both potentially taking this gas to Egypt and to Cyprus.
Also obviously the Israeli market is still a very strong and growing market, helped also by the export of other Israeli resources into Egypt. We're already seeing the effects of that even during commissioning, in that we are entering into spot agreements to help us with that commissioning load with parties who aren't long-term customers. If you like, there's a displacement of demand from Israel into Egypt. We're able to continue to fill that. There's also the ongoing privatization process with IEC. The electricity authority have identified that there's further need for electricity generation in Israel that needs to be satisfied by gas while the solar still builds up. We're sitting in the middle of three hot markets.
Access to Europe, access to Egypt, and access to Israel. Our challenge this year is to decide which is the best and to pursue that with the same degree of focus that we pursued the initial development. You should expect to hear something about that as we go through the year.
Thank you, Nick. Turning to page 13, I want to mention that Energean is not just about the production from Karish, about the existing discovered resource, but also we're looking at further organic growth through our exploration portfolio. We have a well coming up in Egypt, Northeast Happy, together with Eni. Eni has 70%, we have 30% today. We are expecting to be able to farm this down to retain about 18%. This is a very important well for us and for Egypt. We expect this well to be spudded in 2023. In addition, in Egypt, we expect to sign the new exploration license that we have been awarded, onshore East Bir El Nash, and that's in partnership with Eni.
Croatia, we have our Isabella 9 exploration well, where we have a 70% share. Obviously in Greece, we completed the Block 2 3D survey very recently. We're analyzing results. Once we have information, we'll be able to decide on a drill or drop commitment. Same also with our block in Ioannina. It's not a big exploration portfolio, but Energean is not about risky frontier exploration. We have said it many times before. For us, exploration is money we can afford to lose. With the excellent results we've seen from our drill bits operations in Israel, we are confident with our exploration team being able to analyze and guide us to take the right decisions to continue the growth of the company outside of Israel as well.
Let me close with the key catalysts that we see coming. Obviously, the big one, to finish the commissioning process. That's a few weeks in front of us in February. We expect the FPSO to be fully commissioned and the ramp up to the more than 6 BCM a year capacity to be achieved. In Egypt, first gas of our project in Nane. As Panos said, in a couple of weeks, in February, we expect to see gas flowing from Nane. That will obviously continue with the next wells that we will bring on stream during the year. Karish debottlenecking complete by the end of 2023. That means the two big projects, the oil, the second riser and the second oil train to be installed.
That's on track to allow us to get to the 8 BCM mark. There is gonna be a new CPR that we will issue and a development concept for Olympus area that will set the foundations for our growth. Again, first half 2023 expected. All of that, of course, is built on the back of our quarterly dividend in line with the policy that we've announced and, hoping, as Panos said, to be able to increase that from the level that we've been able to pay in 2022. Capital structure remains and capital discipline remains a core priority for us.
We're already thinking about the options to refinance our 2024 bonds, looking at the markets, and we'll be doing what we've done many times before, taking the right decisions and accessing the markets at the best possible time for us. Last but not least, we continue with our net zero strategy. We continue to be focused on ESG. We continue to be focused to be best in class, not only in operations, but also, being a good corporate citizen and delivering on all our promises on the operational, environmental, social, and governance front. With that, I want to thank you for your attention and open the floor for any questions.
Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press * 1 and 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press * 1 and 1 on your telephone. We will now go to our first question. One moment, please. Your first question comes from the line of David Round from Stifel. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you very much indeed. Good morning. It's Chris Wheaton actually standing in for David this morning. Guys, very well done for actually getting first gas and the, the position you're in at the moment. That's fantastic news. Three questions if I may, please. Firstly, one operational on the commissioning, then one more strategic, then one more financial. Could you on the first question, the commissioning, could you perhaps talk through, what gives you the confidence on saying that you'll be a few weeks away from the commissioning? Clearly, you've got to get the right number of people doing the right jobs at the right kind of speed to get through that. I'm interested in whether you could talk through that process a bit more.
Secondly, on the strategic, the the Leviathan partners are looking at a floating LNG solution, potentially. Interestingly, Nick, in his segment in this call, talked about the three end markets of Egypt, Israel, sorry, Egypt, Israel and Europe. Is there potentially a fourth also with LNG as well as potentially, beyond that, just that, those regional markets? Lastly, my own question on finance. If you're going to go to eight BCM capacity, what's the right level of debt with you ought to have a steady state with that kind of level of production and cash flows?
I would have thought if you were to weight your cash flows or weight your cash flows by contract length, I would have thought a duration , a debt duration of sort of 10-15 years would be more appropriate for your business. I'll probably stop there. Thank you very much.
Chris, thanks for the questions. First one is what gives us the confidence? I think that we've been through discussions like this many times before, even from last year, the questions were, are you confident you will be able to leave Singapore? Are you confident that you will be able to deliver first gas? Now, obviously, the question, that's a very valid question. Are you confident you will deliver on commissioning? The answer is absolutely yes. We are confident. I can outline to you, a very detailed list of what has been achieved. Prefer probably to do this offline if you want and dedicate a session if you want to go and deep dive into commissioning discussions about sales gas compressors. I'm sure Steve would love to give you all the details.
I would like to stay with what I said before. We are confident we will deliver the full commissioning by February. This is only a couple of months after we brought the facility on stream. I don't think I want to go into a very detailed list of technical questions, but very happy to dedicate a session if you want to talk about the kit. As I said before, what gives me the confidence is the fact that, and the most important question for me here, was the deliverability of the wells, the deliverability of the reservoir, and what we've seen so far is exactly what we expected. The liquid yields are exactly as we expected. The wells are producing what they were expected to produce. The spec of gas is as expected.
The key issues that could have been encountered, and obviously none of them was encountered because of the excellent design and the work that the technical team did, gives me the confidence. The rest is fine-tuning of machines, and that is something that's doable and manageable. What would have been an issue or a risk would have been subsurface or issue with the wells, which obviously doesn't exist. That gives me the confidence. On your second question, the strategic question.
Thank you.
The second question about FLNG and the announcements of Chevron and them going out. First of all, we never talk about competitors. We never talk about what they plan to do. What we do, of course, is talk about projects that will happen and will bring to our shareholders the results and the dividends that we promised. If someone decides that they want to spend a few billion dollars to build a floating LNG offshore in Israel, and this has to happen in the deep waters of Israel, because my personal opinion is that the Israelis will not allow a nearshore development, meaning this has to be a deep water LNG project, we would be very happy to use it, very happy to use it as an export option.
It's actually exactly the same position that we took on the EastMed gas pipeline. I had a question in previous sessions like this, whether we believe in the EastMed gas pipeline. My answer was exactly the same. If they build it, we will use it. In the meantime, we want to deliver gas to customers, and we want to deliver cash flow. We are looking continuously at the best option, whether that is to sell more gas to Israel or to Egypt or from Cyprus into Europe to bring cash flow today, not in 5 or 10 years. This is our target. As I said, if they build it, we will be very happy to use it.
I remind you also that there is a pipeline that brings gas into Egypt that has already two LNG terminals that people can use to export gas to the world. Obviously, you have to go through an existing pipeline network and rely on the Egyptian government, which has been an excellent partner for us throughout the years, and we trust them despite the problems that Egypt has as a country, to access those terminals without the need to spend billions of dollars. I hope I covered that second question. I'll let Panos.
Great. Thank you very much.
the debt, the debt one.
Yeah. On, on the debt, we have communicated that below 1.5 times leverage is what we consider to be a good sustainable level. Now, below 1.5 does not mean zero. We have made some strategic choices of how to build this company, how to monetize the reserves. I think this is something that we need to spend more time with you and to, on the road to explain how we differentiate ourselves versus our peers. We do not have a profile of production in the next 3-4 years that is dropping off the cliff. Okay? We have a plateau that is sustainable until the end of the decade, and we have contracts that take us well into the end of the next decade.
On top of that, we're not exposed to the volatility of the commodity prices that has, unfortunately and fortunately, made and destroyed fortune of other E&P companies. This is not the profile that we want to build since the beginning, and that's why 70%-75% of those future cash flows are protected through floor pricing or fixed pricing in Egypt. Based on that, and based on the fact that we have a 15-year type of reserve life, we wouldn't be doing justice to anyone to delever to levels of 0 or 0.5. That will play a role to the capital structure of Energean. We will continue tapping and using the DCM markets to the extent we can and to the extent they can serve us, and we think they recognize the.
how robust our cash flows and profitability are. This is a year that obviously we have still a few projects ongoing. The massive project is behind us, which was Karish, as Mathios has mentioned, that was a huge milestone for us. Going forward, 75% of that profile we're showing on our presentation has been sanctioned, but we're still in a period that we are bringing on stream key projects that will get us into this target rate of over 200,000 barrels a day. Deleveraging is happening already. As you can see at the corporate level, we have a net debt of roughly $100 million over an EBITDA that is well above $400 million, although we're not giving final results now.
We are already very low leverage on the producing assets. As Karish is ramping up, the total leverage of the company will be hitting those numbers. From 2024, 2025 onwards, let's have this discussion when the time comes. Again, below 1.5 times it is our target, but that shouldn't be confused with a target of being zero leverage company.
No, that's great. Brilliant.
Thank you. Great help. Very much.
Thank you. We will now go to our next question. One moment, please. Your next question comes from the line of Werner Riding from Peel Hunt. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. Morning, everybody. Probably another one for yourself, Panos, on the dividend, which is described as progressive as Karish ramps up currently at $50 million a quarter, increasing to a minimum of $100. Just wondering what sort of increments we can expect this to increase by on a quarterly basis, and do you expect these increases to start this year? The first question.
Okay. I don't think I'm in a position right now to promise an increase this year. We're definitely targeting that, and we target to increase that dividend stream as soon as possible. Again, it will depend on how quickly we meet those production targets, and as I said, we have no reason to believe that we will not. All our projects are scheduled to be delivered as expected. That's , I cannot comment anymore if this year we will see an increase. Definitely our more than a wish, we would like to see this happening this year. Will we go straight to $100 million? No.
You will have to factor in that it will be staged, and we will reach that $100 million at the point that we have reached the 200,000 barrels a day, and that is reflected well with our cost base as well. It will be gradual. We 're talking about medium-term targets, guys, but, you can understand now we're talking about 18 months. This is it , it's happening, so bear with us a few more months, and hopefully we will be a little bit more clear. Okay?
Yep, sure. That's great. Thanks. That's clear. Second one is just a brief one on the UK assets at this point, given the recent appraisal well on Isabella. Are they to be disposed of this year?
Vanna, listen, we are, we've said many times that the U.K. is a non-core area for us.
At the same time, we're very happy to work with the assets and take them all the way to the commissioning phase and maximize the value for us. The market in been obviously hit by the windfall tax, and a lot of the players have had issues that we're reading in the press, obviously. Whether there is a market to dispose of those assets or not
I don't wanna comment on today. The key point is, as I said before, they are non-core, but we're very happy to work with the assets. They're a very tiny part of our business and a very small part of what we have in our plan to achieve the 200,000 barrels a day. We didn't see obviously the upside from exploration wells that operators were hoping for. It's a non-operated position. We generally don't like being in a non-operated position. We like to be in control of our destiny, as you have seen from all of our other operations. Israel, we're 100% obviously and operating. Egypt is the same.
This is the type of business we like to do, where we can take decisions and create value rather than sit back and wait for others to take the decisions for us. We will see. I think most likely we will continue working with these assets. If there is an opportunity, I'm sure Nick and the commercial team will take it. Everything that we do, as Panos said before, is based on what maximizes shareholder return. That's what we're focused on. If a sale is better than working with the assets, we will take it. If not, we will just work the assets through the end.
Okay, thanks. That's clear.
Thank you. We will now go to our next question. The next question comes from the line of Rachel Fletcher from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Good morning, gentlemen. Happy New Year. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first is on CapEx. You mentioned that some CapEx was shifted into 2023. I was just hoping you could give some color on the breakdown of this, I think you said around $100 million that was shifted, please. My second question is a very quick one. You mentioned that you've been selling to customers during the commissioning process that aren't long-term customers. Is there any likelihood that these customers actually become long-term customers at some point? Thank you.
All right. Let me take the first one, then Nick can comment on the, on the second. The CapEx around $120 million, if I'm not mistaken. There has been safety issues linked directly to commissioning milestones that we will have to sign off technique when commissioning finishes. It's very clear it is linked to commissioning milestones. The EPCIC contract is very clear. There are some commitments that have to be met from our main contractor. When those are met, of course they will, those these CapEx numbers will crystallize. Nick, you want to comment on the question?
Yes. Okay. Of course.
Okay.
Hi, Rachel. I think we can say it's a definite possibility. O ne thing that everyone's aware of is we have sold on long-term contract, and we have commitments for our existing book reserves. We hope to produce another CPR this year. There is, as I said, demand in Israel over the medium term, and we will be looking at that as well as the other options, as we said to Egypt, Cyprus, and LNG. Yes, the fact that the market is still engaging with us is good. The fact that there is effectively a regional short on gas supply, again, is good. It's possible, yes, that we will be continuing our relationships with these new buyers.
Very clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We'll now go to our next question. One moment please. Your next question comes from the line of Mark Wilson from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi. Thank you. Good morning. I'd like to ask about the just to get a bit of picture on the cash flow and net debt dynamics into 2023. Panos, you spoke a lot to deleverage, guidance is for CapEx to for net debt to increase into 2023, and that's with a CapEx number that guidance that is down in the coming year and obviously production ramping up. Could you just explain what is it we're missing here in terms of deleverage into 2023? Thank you.
Yeah. There are two concepts here. Deleverage and leverage is a ratio, is a debt, net debt to EBITDA. The absolute number of net debt, it is in line and will stay roughly in line with what it was in 2022. I remind you that we had guided very similar numbers in 2022, 2.6, 2.8. We ended up with 2.5. 2023 is not going to be the year that I expect a massive reduction in the absolute number of net debt. We're still running all our projects in full steam ahead. Our CapEx number is not lower. It's exactly the same as we recorded in 2022. 2023 is a big transitional year to achieve the 200,000 barrels a day. We are bringing online 3, 4 times more barrels than we did in 2022.
Of course, we continue meeting our dividend commitments. On top of that, we have to factor in, unfortunately, close to $100 million of windfall taxes that we have to pay in Italy.
Of course, all these make 2023 the year that we shouldn't be prioritize on reducing the absolute net debt. The leverage, of course, will drop. The EBITDA will be much higher than what it was in 2022. That means the underlying cash flows are much higher to service exactly the same debt quantum as we had in 2022. We expect to delever both on absolute terms and on leverage ratios very rapidly from 2024 onwards, always in a managed way, as I said, because debt will always have a key role in our capital structure going forward.
That's great clarity. Thank you. Thank you very much. Could you just give us the latest on where average pricing stands in Israel and the absolute contracted volumes you've got now on longer term contracts? Thanks.
Nick?
I'll take that one if that's okay. Yeah. Pricing is in terms of term and spot contracts is higher than when we signed our initial long-term contract for firm gas supplies. The draw of gas into Egypt, largely on oil-linked prices, which have a net back higher than our price, means that prices in Israel for new sources of gas are higher than they were. If you could just remind me of your the second part of your question? I think it was in terms of total quantities.
Yeah. The total contracted quantities you've got versus the anticipated 8 BCM capacity. Thanks.
Yes.
Actually remind us, is there a percentage below that 8 BCM capacity that would be the actual effective volume across the FPSO?
Okay. We have sold the full 100 BCM of 2P resource that we reserves that we currently have in Israel. That provides a plateau, which you'll have seen in previous presentations of 7.2 BCM a year. Hence we do have a small amount of capacity available in the FPSO. To the extent that we have any additional reserves booked, we can monetize that immediately through that facility, should we so wish. That for us will depend on the price that we can achieve in the markets that we can reach. There's a possibility that we can increase our production once we have the second production riser and the second oil train in place at the end of this year.
It's not a, it's not a necessity we're positioning for the next phase of development, but if there's an incremental value opportunity there from that extra capacity, then obviously we'll take that as well.
Thank you, very much and well done on getting to this stage and good luck with the rest of the commissioning.
Thank you. Thanks so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press * 1 and 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. We will now go to our next question. One moment, please. Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Salisbury from Ninety One Asset Management. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning. Congratulations on the results this year. I have a few questions if I may. With regards to your issuance plans for this year, you've spoken about it and obviously you've got the 24 notes that you need to well, that you said that you'd like to refi. D o you have any guidance on timing and quantum and do you expect to maybe take down a bit more than just the refi? That's question number 1. Number 2, have you had any discussions with the ratings agencies? Do you have any long-term targets for where you'd like your rating to go to? I know you've hinted before that you'd like it to be higher than it is right now. That's question number 2.
You just referenced the contingent liability in Italy for the windfall tax of around EUR 100 million or EUR 90 million or whatever it is. You said in your release that you've gone to the courts to try and push back on it. W hich is the case, do you think that that court fight can have any results, or is it just kind of pro forma and you expect to have to pay it out this year? That's it. Thank you.
All right. Mathios, let me start with number 1, and I can answer number 3 as well. In terms of our intentions for the notes, the first rounds of 2024, yes, ideally, we would like this year to take those out and push them back. As you understand, this is, w e have to rely on the markets, number 1, and if the bondholders are back in the market, because in 2022, no one was interested to any type of bond issuance. The market has opened better. As I said, we are drawing more attention to the right timing to do that. If it's gonna be higher or not, it will depend a lot on our plans around Olympus.
If we will continue having some CapEx, it's, as we have said many times, the times that Energean was committing to $2 billion type of capital expenditure, 100% is behind us. If we are to accelerate these very exciting discoveries we have in Olympus, that obviously we will need to take that into account. I can't comment more. All I can say is that, yes, it is our focus for the year. If the opportunity is there, and if we get the recognition from the DCM markets of what we have achieved so far, after 2 years of what we said we will achieve, and, of course, the market conditions are there, we will do it. Regarding the windfall tax, it's very unfortunate.
I think it's, what the European Union and UK in our view, continue making the same mistakes of trying to find solutions on a very temporary issue by undermining a very long-term and capital intensive industry. This is not for us trying to change the world. This is something for us feeling that we have every right to argue at court. This is a windfall tax that we think is unfair, but obviously we have to be realistic. We have the funds to pay those taxes. We will pay those taxes. Not gonna be a contingent liability, will be a crystallized liability in our books, and will be paid in June 2023.
Of course, the legal aspect of it we will fight it at court and we hope and trust we will find our rights.
I know, there was a second question about the ratings and the rating agencies. If you want to take that, I'll come back on Italy, 'cause I wanna say a few things about it.
All right. Okay. Rating agencies, we are in very close contact. Of course, you can understand that all three of them are contacting us post the first gas. We are keeping them up to date on our commissioning plans. We are hopeful, but we cannot commit that the outlook will be shifting. As we produce and record sales, we will see a much more tangible type of increase in our rating. We are working very. We're very focused on that, as you can expect. Obviously, we cannot do anything else, but just providing data. The feedback so far is very positive. We do deliver what we say we will deliver.
Of course, that has to be taken into consideration, and will be taken into consideration around the timing of our bond issuance.
Pano, thank you. Quick comment from me on Italy. This is not a case of crying, it's not fair. We understand that governments have taken a decision throughout Europe that affect not just us, but thousands of other companies. Just in Italy, the new tax affects 7,000 companies. This is not a situation of the Italian government targeting the upstream sector. It is the entire energy sector. What we have seen, of course, which hasn't been mentioned here, is that the Italian government, in parallel with putting or imposing this windfall tax, has opened the North Adriatic for additional exploration or development of hydrocarbons resources, because the government understands that domestic production, especially of gas, will be the way out of this crisis.
Together with the problem, we have seen a very interesting opportunity to develop more resource in Italy together with Eni. Of course, that is in the market that has the highest return for us. Yes, 2023, we will see a hit. I think out of this, something very positive will come out for our Italian business, which has produced exceptional results. I remind you that when we bought Edison, Italy was the country that nobody wanted to touch, because it was a country that was expected to be just a decommissioning of old assets country. Instead of that, we've seen a significant inflow of cash over 2022. Yes, some of that will go back to the government. Will we fight it? Yes, we will.
Through this, we see a big opportunity to do more in Italy, that has been a fantastic country for us despite this big hit.
Thank you for those answers. Really do appreciate it. If I may, just a very quick follow-up. With regards to the issuance, is it possible or even on the table for you to do that issuance at the top co level, as opposed to at the Israel level? Or is that sorted out and you have to do it at the lower op co level? That's it for me. Thank you.
No, we do have options, structural options. Our preference is to keep the refinancing of those notes at Energean Israel level. The form of those cash flows, as well as the maturity of the project allows us to, or at least I feel that it is, will give us a better, will give to potential bondholders better clarity, and that means better pricing for us. We have the option, but I'll be very clear with you. Our preference for the time being is to stick with the structure we have and just do it at Energean Israel level.
Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. This concludes the Q&A session. I will now hand the call back for closing comments.
Well, thank you everyone for the participation and to the questions. As I said before, 2022 was a great year for us. We delivered on the major projects. We are on track for our 200,000 barrel a day mark, and our stable cash flow production will give us the dividends we expect. View Energean as a company that will be delivering on cash flow dividends, but also focusing on growth and continuing the fantastic trajectory that we've seen coming from a small producer in Greece into the largest independent E&P player in gas in the East Mediterranean. We're totally focused on our operations, totally focused on delivering results to our shareholders, and we will what we've always done, deliver on our promises.
Thank you very much, and look forward to seeing you all in person or in our next updates. Thank you.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.