Good morning, and welcome to the FirstGroup 2024 full-year results presentation. In a moment, I will hand over to Ryan to take you through the financial performance for the year, after which I will provide an update on the business performance in bus and rail before we take your questions at the end. I'm delighted to say that we have delivered another strong set of financial results in 2024, backing up the significant progress made in financial year 2023. As you will see shortly, all key financial metrics show significant growth over the prior year, despite the challenging political, economic, and industrial relations environment. Group-adjusted earnings per share at GBP 16.7 has increased by 44% from GBP 11.6 per share in the prior year. This has been driven by strong financial performance across all areas of the bus and rail businesses and supported by the ongoing share buyback program.
We refreshed our strategy during the year to provide additional focus to the Group, and we continue to deliver against our priorities. Operational execution has been effective as First Bus has improved its operating profit margin to 8.3% for the full year and 9.4% in the H2 . This leaves us well positioned to deliver on our target of a 10% operating profit margin during the H2 of financial year 2025. We have also seen improved train-operating company contract performance, with final agreement of variable fee awards for full year 2023 at higher levels than expected. This step-up in performance helped mitigate the loss of the TransPennine Express contract in May 2023. Demand for both our bus and open-access rail services has increased in full year 2024, resulting in excellent revenue growth rates across those businesses.
A key component of our strategy is modal shift, driving a step change from car and air to bus and rail. Increased passenger volumes is an encouraging sign for future progress in this area. Leading in environmental and social sustainability has long been a priority for the Group. We remain on track to deliver the Group's decarbonization commitments, with substantial progress made in the year on bus depot and fleet electrification. We also continue to gain recognition for our strong sustainability credentials, becoming a signatory to the UN Global Compact and being the only U.K. bus and train company to be listed in the S&P Sustainability Yearbook. Growth and diversification of our earnings remain a key strategic area for the Group. This has been supported by the significant improvement in bus and open-access rail financial performance.
We have also continued our strategy of U.K. bolt-on acquisitions in bus, with completion of the York Pullman acquisition, and laid down future expansion plans in open access rail through route applications with the Office of Rail and Road. We believe that continued focus on these priorities will deliver long-term value to our shareholders. I will now hand over to Ryan, who will take us through our financial results for the full year 2024.
Thank you, Graham, and good morning, everyone. This has been another year of strong financial delivery despite the macroeconomic volatility the business has faced over this past year. In my presentation, I'll be covering the following three areas: the strong progress in the financial performance delivered across the Group, our cash-generative business model combined with our strong balance sheet and the progress we have made in managing our pension liabilities, and finally, the guidance for full year 2025 and reflections on capital allocation. Turning to slide five, the financial summary, the Group has delivered a material increase in the year across all of the key financial measures that matter. While the Group's revenue was flat year-over-year, the proactive actions we took over the last year saw all commercial segment lines improve.
At both the bus and open-access rail business, where we take full commercial risk, passenger demand continued to improve. Net fare increases and yield management actions were taken, combined with adjacent revenue growth, were only partially offset by lower government grant funding. These increases in commercial revenues were, however, offset by lower revenues from the DFT TOCs, where we take limited revenue risk due mainly to the TPE contract ending in May 2023. The revenue improvements in bus and open-access rail have only been partially offset by cost increases, and this, together with higher-than-accrued variable fees from the DFT TOCs from full year 2023, resulted in a 27% increase in the Group's adjusted operating profit to GBP 204.3 million. While the positive business performance benefited from the lower net finance costs in full year 2024, earnings were impacted by the higher corporate tax rate in the U.K.
Nonetheless, the Group delivered GBP 110.7 million in adjusted earnings, up 29% versus the prior year. Adjusted EPS were GBP 16.7p, up 44%, with the current year benefiting from the impact of the reduced average number of shares in issue as a result of the share buyback program that launched in December 2022. This robust underlying business performance and strength of the balance sheet have resulted in the board proposing a final dividend of GBP 4 per share, and hence a GBP 5.5 per share for the full year versus GBP 3.8 in the prior year, with the dividend in line with the current policy of around three times adjusted earnings per share.
The year-end adjusted net cash for the Group was GBP 64.1 million versus GBP 109.9 million in the prior year, with the strong underlying cash generation from the business and the receipt of the transit earn-out proceeds being offset by the capital deployment and returns to shareholders, including GBP 118 million through the current share buyback program. At a corporate level, we have entered into a GBP 100 million strategic joint venture with Hitachi for 1,000 electric bus batteries, resulting in a circa GBP 20 million saving in CapEx in the year. We've also entered into an innovative GBP 150 million green hire-purchase finance facility for electric bus hulls to broadly match the battery joint venture structure and hence completing the financing for the next 1,000 electric vehicles.
We significantly reduced the Group's pension liabilities, with GBP 1 billion of liabilities being removed or fully insured, and we repurchased GBP 88 million of the September 2024 bonds, with only GBP 96.2 million currently outstanding. A very strong performance in delivery across the board. Turning to the bus performance on slide six, where bus is demonstrating good progress towards the 10% adjusted operating profit margin target, and where they continue to take actions to improve further on this. Bus revenues now exceed GBP 1 billion per annum and were up GBP 109.7 million, with higher commercial and adjacent services revenue growth only partially offset by lower government revenue grants, which were down GBP 40 million.
The increase in revenue has been underpinned by solid passenger demand, with growth up 7% and pricing changes adding GBP 53 million, as well as continued expansion into the adjacent services and contract market in both organic and inorganic growth, with revenues from these segments growing to GBP 219.8 million. This growth did, however, benefit to some extent from strong demand for rail replacement services at TPE in the H1 of the year that has not remained at this elevated level. The strong revenue growth has, however, been partially offset by underlying cost increases of circa 6% of the inflationary cost base, particularly in driver wages that were up circa 8%, with these increases carrying forward into full year 2025, however, recognizing the currently materially lower CPI environment for future settlements.
Our fuel hedging policy has provided some protection against increases in diesel costs, and looking ahead, circa 76% of full year 2025 and circa 41% of full year 2026 has been hedged at marginally higher costs, with our hedging for electricity program currently reflecting similar coverage but providing a very decent tailwind into 2025 given the reduction in electricity prices over the period. As a result, adjusted operating profit was GBP 83.6 million at a margin of 8.3%, up 180 basis points, and First Bus on track to deliver the 10% target expected in the H2 of full year 2025. The bus business delivered an 11.5% post-tax return on capital employed, up 320 basis points year-on-year, with the strong business performance being slightly tempered by the increase in investment through the capital employed due to the accelerated program of decarb and electric buses.
The higher proportion of electric buses in our fleet should contribute materially to profit growth going forward, given the lower operating costs. Turning to rail on slide seven, the rail business continues to deliver strong financial performance, with reported adjusted operating profit at GBP 143.3 million, up GBP 18.5 million. For the DFT TOCs, these delivered an attributable net income of GBP 39.5 million after tax and non-controlling interest, and this is in line with the prior year, with progress across all the franchises offset by TPE contract not being renewed. These results did benefit from a circa GBP 30 million stronger final gross variable performance fees from full year 2023 that were recognized in the year. Going forward, we expect these to be more stable given how the scoring regime has changed.
As a reminder, the variable performance fee element is generally predicated on delivering an on-target performance reflecting circa 65% of the fee potential, and the business has consistently outperformed this measure since the regime was implemented in March 2020, demonstrating our strong capability in delivering National Rail Contracts despite the challenges that the sector has faced. Management fees for the DFT TOCs are paid a year in arrears following the completion of the statutory audited accounts for the entities in the H2 of the year, and hence we anticipate receiving the GBP 39.5 million in fees for full year 2024 later this fiscal year. Open Access businesses made a combined adjusted operating profit of GBP 30 million, which was up GBP 10.4 million, driven by the continued strong demand and yield management, only partially offset by cost inflation.
We expect the growth in demand and yield for these services to continue, but this is partially tempered by cost increases, particularly access charges in Lumo that are now in effect following the launch in 2021. The additional services business in rail delivered an adjusted operating profit of GBP 7.7 million, with steady progress in delivery offset by business development costs and the restructure costs for Evo Rail that, following a comprehensive business review, is now focused solely on delivery of the SWR contract. Turning to slide eight on our key financial performance metric of underlying adjusted earnings, all divisions have continued to contribute to the strong progress.
At First Bus, the increase in operating leverage contributed GBP 25.2 million to the improvement in operating profit, and in rail, with a more diversified portfolio and greater proportion of earnings coming from outside of the DFT TOCs, has meant that the growth for First Rail profits has primarily been driven by open access. Interest costs were GBP 1.9 million lower due to the partial bond buyback during the year, as well as higher interest received on cash deposits. The effective tax rate for the year was circa 23%, broadly in line with the higher U.K. corporate tax rate. The increased profitability, combined with the higher tax rate, has resulted in an additional GBP 8.6 million charged in tax in the year. This results in a GBP 25.1 million increase in adjusted earnings to GBP 110.7 million being delivered.
Turning to the adjusted cash flow movements on slide nine that excludes ring-fenced cash and the impact of IFRS 16, the Group generated GBP 148.3 million in EBITDA before the rail management fee TOC cash inflows, where we received GBP 38.2 million in distributions relating to the fiscal year 2023 fees. Working capital was a net GBP 42.8 million outflow, mainly relating to timing differences in receivables of VAT on electric bus deliveries at the end of the year, and an increase of circa GBP 10 million in working capital at bus relating to funding that is now received in arrears versus in advance under the prior regimes. This resulted in a total of GBP 143.7 million in capital generated from operations.
This underlying capital generated was deployed in investing GBP 134.7 million in CapEx net of grant funding and before the Hitachi joint venture for the battery sales, primarily in the electrification of the bus fleet. And the average age of the bus continues to reduce and now is lower than nine years, which is going to improve reliability and reduce costs in future. GBP 17.9 million was deployed in growth investments in First Bus that includes the acquisition of York Pullman, investments to date in the Hitachi joint venture, and the buyout of a minority stake in Leicester.
Bus generated GBP 35.8 million in disposals, including the cash receipt for the Southampton depot from the prior year, the sale of the Oldham depot in Manchester following the completion of the electrification for TfGM, and the sale of bus batteries into the joint venture with Hitachi, and finally, the sale of certain fleet as we continue to reshape the fleet as part of the continued reshaping of the fleet network. GBP 17.2 million net was received following the termination of the local government pension scheme in First Bus, with a payment of GBP 3 million in costs made after year-end. GBP 1.5 million net was received in tax and interest, with the interest mostly from cash interest on the 2024 bond offset by interest earned on cash balances, as well as relief receipts from Group relief that we've used from the DFT TOCs.
GBP 65.3 million has been received from the transit earn-out, and in other movements, the Group purchased GBP 16.5 million worth of shares for the Employee Benefit Trust for the settlement of the share scheme awards. This is offset by the add-back of the non-cash IFRS 2 charge in EBITDA. Currently, GBP 14.4 million shares are held in the trust as of the year-end. Other movements also include the outflows relating to the legacy liability discharges from the residual North American business. GBP 29.5 million was paid by way of dividend in the year, and GBP 117.6 million of the share buyback program was executed. This resulted in the Group ending the year in a net cash position of GBP 64.1 million. Turning to slide 10, this has been a busy year where we have removed or insured GBP 1 billion worth of pension risk from the balance sheet.
For the LGPS schemes in the U.K., we terminated our participations in the schemes, removing GBP 700 million of liabilities. On exit of these schemes, we received a net cash return after costs of GBP 17 million of the surplus, albeit the P&L accounting means that a material charge to the income statement, which is non-cash, is offset by a credit to the consolidated statement of comprehensive income. The terminating of the participation in the LGPS should result in about a GBP 2 million saving in costs and overhead at bus, which will contribute to continued growth in profitability. At Greyhound, the pension de-risking has removed roughly about GBP 270 million of pension liability risk from the balance sheet, where we have bought in the pension exposure in Canada and partially bought out the pension exposure in the U.S.A at minimal cash cost.
The remaining exposure in the U.S.A. is well hedged in terms of investment strategy until these liabilities are annuitized in due course. In the U.K., we have now completed the merger of the First Bus and the Group scheme post the year-end that should result in further cost savings through operational efficiencies in the management of these schemes. As a reminder, the First Bus and Group pension escrow monies are held on the balance sheet as a financial asset and are not reported in net cash. During the year, GBP 24 million was paid to the First Bus scheme from the escrow relating to the settlement for the GBP 500 million we returned to shareholders in December 2021 following the Group's exit from North America.
The remaining balance in escrow now stands at GBP 100 million, of which GBP 77 million relates to the First Bus scheme that is subject to finalizing the valuation as of April 2024, where any return from escrow would be after agreeing the valuation with the trustees during calendar year 2025, and GBP 23 million relates to the Group scheme that is subject to the valuation in 2030. Turning to slide 11 on the Group's capital allocation approach and the balance between capital deployment and capital return to shareholders, the Group has considerable balance sheet capacity with GBP 64 million of adjusted net cash and underlying business model that is cash generative. The medium-term target for debt coverage ratio is 2x adjusted EBITDA that further adds to our capacity to deploy capital should the right opportunities exist.
The Group is committed to the First Bus commercial fleet being zero carbon by 2035, and we will continue to prudently accelerate investment into electrification of the fleet, particularly where government funding is available, as well as deploying capital into energy adjacencies such as we did with the solar panels on all of our depots. Over GBP 100 million of net cash has been deployed in full year 2024 in the DCOB of First Bus, and further commitments have been made in full year 2025 following the success in the application for ZEBRA funding. Following these investments, we expect to end full year 2025 with circa 18% of the bus fleet electrified. The strong balance sheet has allowed the Group to be opportunistic in acquisitions, and we have deployed over GBP 50 million in acquisitions in First Bus over the last two years, with a number of opportunities that continue to be evaluated.
All acquisitions are judged against strict return criteria in excess of the Group's pre-tax WACC, and in the context of how well the targets fit into the existing business model, where additional value can be created from leveraging our scale, capabilities, and processes. As noted before, First Bus has delivered a post-tax ROCE of 11.5%, up 3.2 percentage points, and we anticipate to make further progress due to the operating efficiencies of the new electric fleet at lower operating costs. At the First Rail business, some opportunities exist for inorganic growth outside of bidding; however, these are more limited given the structural nature of rail in the U.K. For the open access operations, the intention that the rolling stock is funded through operating leases at terms that match the access agreements.
These arrangements are therefore capital light, and our two proven brands of Hull and Lumo provide the Group with flexibility to expand existing platforms for new routes that will be more efficient with investment more focused on recruitment, driver training, and staff training, with some marketing costs in the main. We remain committed to a progressive dividend policy from the current level of around three times adjusted earnings, and subject to growth investment opportunities, the Board will continue to review any surplus capital that could be returned to shareholders. And finally, the financial outlook for full year 2025 on slide 12. The Group has made significant progress over the past few years, and the outlook for 2025 is in line with our expectations, with the benefit of the continued improvement in the mix of earnings.
We anticipate incurring circa GBP 50-55 million in interest, of which GBP 40 million relates to IFRS 16 charges at the DFT TOCs, with net interest also impacted by lower average cash balances as a consequence of the buyback. The First Bus business anticipates a progressive growth in adjusted operating profit despite the wider inflation and macroeconomic challenges that lie ahead. At First Rail, we anticipate delivering a result in full year 2025 in line with our expectations. We expect to earn a more normal level of fees, variable fees from the 3 DFT TOCs, and the open access and additional services businesses are anticipated to deliver results ahead of full year 2024, given the strong demand in open access. At the Rail Centre, we are anticipating incurring roughly GBP 5 million- GBP 10 million in business development costs for growth opportunities.
We remain on track to deploy circa GBP 120 million of CapEx net of grants in First Bus, mainly in the electrification of the fleets and depots, after taking into account the cash benefit of circa GBP 15 million from the Hitachi battery transaction. At First Rail, it is expected to remain capital light despite the growth opportunities. The final dividend proposed of GBP 0.04 per share, or circa GBP 24 million, is expected to be paid in August. This will be subject to shareholder approval at the AGM. We expect to end the year in a net cash position of GBP 40 million-GBP 50 million before further growth capital is deployed, but after paying ordinary dividends and assuming the completion of the remaining GBP 41 million outstanding as of full year 2024 from the current share buyback program.
The strong, well-capitalized balance sheet provides the Group with great flexibility and options to drive future value creation for shareholders. I'll hand over to Graham.
Thank you, Ryan, for the comprehensive financial update. I will now move on to cover the business review. Moving to slide 14. The First Bus team have continued to make good progress in restructuring the business against the backdrop of a challenging economic climate, high inflation, and the continued shift to a lower funding environment. This is creating stronger foundations to drive further growth and value. Adjusted operating profit in the period has increased to GBP 84 million, up 43% on the previous financial year. Bus carried 424 million passengers in the year, a 7% increase in underlying volumes, aided by the GBP 2 fare cap in England and the free travel scheme for under-22s in Scotland.
This growth, together with improvements made in our network and service reliability, has resulted in a 13% increase in our revenue per mile compared to the prior year. The growth in passenger volumes continues to support our belief that favorable demographics, government policy, and environmental and societal trends will support long-term volume growth in the bus sector. We experience an average 6% inflationary impact on our cost base, with driver average pay settlements at circa 8% for the year. We have managed to get through peak levels of inflation effectively, with commercial pricing yield management more than covering the impact of cost inflation on our financial performance. A significant increase in driver recruitment has also supported improved operational performance, with bus-operated miles running at 99% of scheduled miles, up from 97% in the prior year. Agency driver numbers have also dropped materially by 46%, helping to improve driver unit costs.
Technology is also playing an increasing role in our business, with the ongoing deployment of the Prospective AI platform leading to improvements in reliability and punctuality. This is leading to an improving customer experience and the efficient running of our bus network. Moving to slide 15. We're focused on growing and diversifying the First Bus portfolio in areas that leverage our capabilities, assets, and overall footprint. We will do this by increasing our share of the adjacent services market and participating in attractive franchising and partnership opportunities. In adjacent services, we have created a solid base in workplace shuttles and corporate transport, airport city express services, and rail replacement services. We're also growing the business through acquisitions and are differentiating our service capability by making use of our national footprint, our core bus assets, the First Travel Solutions subcontracted network, and our capability to effectively manage large customers.
Our adjacent services revenue grew to GBP 220 million in 2024, up 26% on the prior year. The four acquisitions completed in the last few years have added circa GBP 80 million to adjacent services revenue. The recent acquisition of York Pullman will enhance our operational footprint in the North Yorkshire region and provide profitable growth opportunities in the contracted and commercial services markets. The adjacent bus services market in the U.K. is considerable, and we're actively reviewing a pipeline of opportunities to grow the business. We're also monitoring a growing pipeline of opportunities in franchising and partnerships. Several regional authorities have expressed an interest in franchising in recent months, and we anticipate that the franchising market share in U.K. bus, including London and Manchester, will grow to circa 80% from just over 50% currently.
This presents some risk to our regional bus operation, but also creates several franchise opportunities, with the first being in Liverpool. We have built a strong commercial team during 2024, building on our experience in Manchester as we prepare for multiple bids over the next few years. We are also very supportive of enhanced partnership schemes, with Leicester being an excellent example of what can be achieved. Starting in May 2022 and supported by GBP 100 million of private and public funding, we, as the key operator working closely with Leicester City Council, have been able to improve punctuality and frequency, resulting in bus patronage being up almost 20% over the last year. It has allowed Leicester to become a leader in decarbonization, with high levels of electric vehicle penetration in the council area.
This is a notable example of a public-private partnership delivering effectively and driving real value for customers on an accelerated path to a fully decarbonized fleet. Regardless of the model, close partnerships with local government and all key stakeholders are essential for the thriving local bus networks we all want to see. We remain committed to working with our partners to achieve this. Turning to slide 16. We've made very good progress on bus electrification during full year 2024. We now have over 600 electric buses, around 13% of our fleet, more than 600 charger outlets, and three fully electric depots in England, with six further depots across the U.K. partially electrified. This is providing increased visibility on how electrification will transform our business and cost base, and also the potential to provide adjacent earnings. Early indications show a reduction in vehicle maintenance costs of circa 30%.
We've put in place third-party charging agreements at several of our depots, and together with the work supporting Transport for Greater Manchester with electrification of the Oldham depot, we have generated adjacent earnings of circa GBP 1 million in full year 2024. The initial capital investment for electrification is still considerable. In addition to working with our local authority partners to secure government co-funding and committing significant group capital, we're forming strategic partnerships and securing innovative financing, as Ryan has said. Our strategic joint venture with Hitachi will also allow us to retain much of the residual value of the batteries as they come off our buses.
Looking ahead, we announced in March that we had worked successfully with our local authority partners to secure GBP 16 million of ZEBRA 2 co-funding, with the Group committing a further investment of GBP 89 million for the purchase of electric buses and infrastructure.
Following the completion of this latest wave of projects, we will operate more than 800 zero-emission vehicles, about 18% of our fleet. This is a significant achievement as we strive to lead in bus fleet and infrastructure decarbonization. Moving on to slide 17. Our teams managing the National Rail Contracts at GWR, SWR, and West Coast Partnership have continued to focus on delivery despite the challenging industrial relations climate. We've seen strong operational contract delivery, and as we reported at the half-year, the increase in adjusted operating profit reflects better than anticipated variable fee awards. We've delivered adjusted operating profit of GBP 105.6 million despite the end of the Trans-Pennine Express contract, up GBP 12 million on the prior year. This is a testament to the hard work of our teams across each of our rail businesses.
The newly introduced revenue outturn mechanism in our National Rail Contracts means that, for the first time since the pandemic, operators have an incentive to grow revenue within the variable fee metrics. This is a single-digit GBP million opportunity in full year 2025. A new nine-year National Rail Contract was signed for the West Coast Partnership to run until October 2032, with a minimum core term of three years to October 2026. Our teams have worked closely with the DFT on several major projects. For example, we have seen the introduction into passenger service of new fleets for both SWR and, just this month, new bi-mode trains for Avanti. In an industry first, GWR are running trials of a fast-charge battery train, which made a record 70-mile journey using just 45% of its battery capacity. Our rail division already encompasses non-DFT contracts.
We have won the London Cable Car contract, which we start operating later this month, and this will deliver an estimated GBP 60 million of revenue over the course of an eight-year contract. We've also qualified for the TfL Elizabeth line bid process with our partner Keolis. Bids will be submitted in July, with the winner announced towards the end of this calendar year. The forthcoming general election brings uncertainty to our National Rail Contracts beyond full year 2025. We remain focused on contract delivery, working closely with all key stakeholders and continuing to diversify our rail earnings. And now moving on to open access on slide 18. Hull Trains and Lumo continue to exceed expectations and deliver material improvements in financial performance, with growth rates significantly above the market. They are demonstrating what private operators can do for the industry, stimulating demand and providing competitive, sustainable, and reliable services.
Both businesses saw strong revenue growth of more than 40% in full year 2024, driven by increased demand from both the business and leisure markets and effective yield management. Combined revenues reached GBP 100 million, with adjusted operating profit up 53% to GBP 30 million. Seat capacity utilization at both Hull Trains and Lumo of circa 70% plus is significantly above the national average, with an improving trend during the year for both operators. We have added capacity on certain popular Hull Trains services and are looking to do the same for Lumo. Furthermore, both Hull Trains and Lumo are among the most reliable operators in the country, and with customer satisfaction levels of 96% in a recent survey. On to slide 19. Growing open access rail remains a key priority within the overall group strategy.
Over the H2 of full year 2024, we have progressed additional opportunities where we can further leverage the capability and experience we have in the group. We have applied for new services linking London with both Rochdale via Manchester Victoria and Sheffield via Worksop, aiming to restore rail links to communities who lost these services decades ago and providing potential work for British-located train builders. Both services offer an appealing option compared to road transport and could start from 2027. We are looking to extend Lumo's service from Edinburgh to Glasgow and have applied for more paths for both Lumo and Hull Trains to operate at sixth and eighth daily train service, respectively. Finally, we are also looking to lengthen some of Lumo's services to 10-car train operations.
If these plans are approved by the regulator, then the applications we have submitted for new and extended open access services could more than double our open access seat capacity over the next three-five years. We remain focused on driving long-term growth in rail open access business. Moving on to slide 21 to summarize and close. So, in closing, full year 2024 has been another positive year for the Group, reinforcing our leading positions and deep expertise in bus and rail. Our strong balance sheet and cash-generative businesses provide significant scope and optionality for growth and the potential for further capital returns to shareholders. Bus is on track to deliver a 10% operating profit margin in the H2 of full year 2025.
Decarbonization continues at pace and has accelerated our drive towards greener transport, supporting our own and the government's goals, and we're also starting to unlock cost efficiencies and adjacent value opportunities. In rail, we are focused on good execution of National Rail Contracts, expanding our hugely successful open access businesses and bidding for other contracts to further grow and diversify our earnings. We continue to evaluate a broad pipeline of organic and inorganic growth opportunities in existing and adjacent markets in both bus and rail. There's no doubt we've made good financial progress last year, but we still have much more to do. We remain focused on the task at hand. We have great people and a strong financial discipline, and that leaves us well placed to deliver, and I believe that FirstGroup has an exciting future ahead.
Thank you for your time this morning, and we will now open to questions, so I'll hand to Scott.
Yes, good morning. It's Rory Cullinan from RBC. My first question is, how has the passenger recovery trended at the start of the financial year, particularly in bus and open access? And then secondly, two questions which relate to free cash flow potential in bus as you progress towards your 10% margin target. What should we think about bus CapEx from here? Could you say what proportion of the GBP 120 million could be considered maintenance CapEx? And then secondly, the cash tax paid is relatively low. Should we expect that to continue as you continue to invest? Thank you.
Okay, thank you very much. I'll take the first one, and then you can have the pleasure, Ryan, of the other ones. That's great. On volumes, I mean, obviously we saw a slowing trend in growth in the H2 of full year 2024, but still at reasonable levels, and obviously 7% over the year is strong. We are seeing an encouraging start to full year 2025 in line with our expectations. And in open access, again, I think a relatively strong start to the year in Hull Trains and, as we would expect, in Lumo. So, trajectory positive and, yes, I say everything looking in line with what we thought for full year 2025.
Then, Rory, on the bus CapEx and free cash flow generation, we'd expect CapEx to be running ahead of depreciation for a couple of years yet. The reason for that is the significantly greater cost of electrification versus traditional diesel, which is clearly forming most of our depreciation base at the moment. To the extent that, particularly where the sort of government funding is available, we'll continue to accelerate our investment in the decarb. We think we play a very active role in helping meet the objectives that the government has set, and we kind of firmly believe it as a board in terms of our delivery. 18% of the fleet being fully electrified by the end of this year is less more fleet, and I think it'll be one of the biggest fleets in the U.K., I suspect.
I think currently we are the, it's an interesting stat, I think we are the seventh biggest electric vehicle charger in the whole of the U.K., which is quite a remarkable statistic, and that's going to continue to grow. Some of the CapEx for this next year is also sort of IT-related and systems-related, and we've taken the view that it's the right time now to sort of invest a bit more into the bus business from a process perspective, but that's obviously not going to sort of be ongoing. That's more of a sort of one-off sort of cost over the next 18 months or so. Then in terms of the cash tax, we are very, we don't pay much cash tax given some of the brought forward losses we've got. We've also obviously got the pension payments that we made back in 2021.
That's a significant contribution that counts towards our broad forward position, as well as the accelerated capital allowances that we've got for the electrification of our bus fleet, also provide a bit of coverage in the current year. So that should stay fairly low for a number of years yet.
This is Satish from Citigroup. I got three questions here. So, on the open access Lumo utilization, you did flag that it's increased to 75%. How does it actually compare weekdays versus the weekends, just to get a sense like how much of is it actually leisure or more like sticky travel coming through? And then the second one is around the agency staff. You said you made some progress on the agency. How much more has to be done there or should we expect agency cost reduction into this year? And the third one, you flagged about the opportunities on franchise. At the same time, you also said there's risks to some of your regional bus operations. If you could just help us understand which other markets do you see potential risks are, and are you having any conversation with the local authorities there? Yeah, thank you.
Okay. On seat utilization, I mean, we've been quite successful over the last couple of years in driving that up to kind of industry-leading levels. I mean, the average in the U.K. across the whole sector is in the mid-30s, between 35%-40%, and the long-distance operators, 45%-50%. So, we are able to manage demand well in relation to the services we run, and we obviously get a real benefit from being able to fill our trains to that level. Hence, we're looking at adding capacity and working to stimulate demand. So, that gives you a kind of relative comparison with the sector. In terms of agency staff, as I say, we made a 46% reduction last year, and we've recruited net more than 500 drivers over the last 12 months. So, we've made really good progress.
The benefit we're really seeing is we're able to operate our schedule at 99% where we weren't before, and that really helps our productivity in terms of revenue per mile, etc. So, there is still a way to go on agency staff. Ideally, we would not have many agency staff in the business, but there's always reasons and spot locations where you might need some, but they're significantly more expensive. And therefore, the aim is to reduce it to an absolute minimum level. So, I would expect over the next 12 months to see another sizable reduction in agency staff. In terms of franchising, obviously a number of mayoral authorities have intimated that they're considering or beginning to start a process to move in that direction.
Two notable areas where we have no presence are Liverpool and obviously Birmingham, West Midlands, but also West Yorkshire have announced they're in the process, and we have a sizable presence there, 50%-60% of the market in that area. So, we have a view over the next five years how this might play out, and obviously we feel positive about it because we feel net there's more to gain than to lose over that period. I guess what we don't know at this stage is how it's going to play out in terms of bus ownership, depot ownership, is it capital light, is it not, and that'll become clearer as more regional authorities get through the process. So, to a certain extent, it's just going to be part of the market over the next parliamentary term, and therefore we have actively been building a strong commercial team to participate.
Where we are now in terms of capability to where we were 12 months ago, I think we've made a major step forward, and I guess the proof will be as these bids come out and the results come out, but we're leaning into it with positivity. As I say, the first one up in terms of the bidding will be Liverpool, where we have no presence at this stage.
Thank you. Just a quick follow-up on the utilization. So, 75% now. Theoretically, how much you could see opportunity to increase there? Because obviously there'll be.
Yeah. And just so you understand that statistic, it's calculated as seats in and out of London because that's fundamentally where Lumo and Hull Trains are going. And therefore, what you have to understand is that Lumo going to Edinburgh, a good chunk of that utilization will get off at Newcastle, for instance, and then the train will be emptier going to Edinburgh. Hence, what we're trying to open up is Glasgow to Newcastle travel, which is a very difficult journey anyway, so we feel that will be attractive and there's a market for that. So, we understand onward ticket sales from Edinburgh and things like that. So, this is why we're doing some of the things we're doing.
So, some of it is hard to get much beyond 75%-80%, I think, on that metric, but what you've got to look at is it's not 75% full for the whole journey. It's in and out of London. And what we're trying to do is obviously optimize parts of the route where we've got more opportunity to add extra revenues on, and the cost is fixed. So, we still feel there's a way to go in terms of how we manage yield on open access. And then obviously, we've got the decision as to when we go from five-car operation to a 10-car operation, which clearly doubles capacity, but obviously there are additional staff costs and things that would go with that. So, we would do that carefully and when we knew we had generated the right levels of demand for the service.
So, we still feel this story is really only starting. We've laid out today that we feel we can double our capacity over the next three-five years, but that's not the limit of our ambition. That's what we've done today and what we've applied for today. We expect to surface other opportunities over the next year or two.
Thank you.
Morning. Gerald Khoo from Liberum, if I can. Two on adjacent services. Firstly, how do margins in adjacent services in bus compare with, shall we say, traditional bus services? Secondly, how much of adjacent services is rail replacement, and how do you see that playing out? And finally, in rail, on open access, you talked about the various additional applications. When do you expect to hear back from the ORR, and at what point, if they don't make a decision, does it affect your sort of planned rollout?
Okay. Lots of questions, Gerald. Thank you very much. Margins in adjacent services vary. I mean, the average would be similar to regional bus, but we obviously have some contracts that might be slightly lower than that, and we have some that are higher, and a lot depends on the length of a contract and how you can develop it during contract. The one thing about this area is that it does afford you opportunities for change within contracts and the ability to earn extra margins. So, I think we see margins being similar over the term as regional bus. We don't see it as if it didn't meet our investment criteria, we wouldn't do it. So, we think that's an area that over time will generate good margins for the business.
Rail replacement's about 20% off it today, and obviously that's a little bit more volatile, but there will always be reasons for some of that business to be there for sure. And again, that's an area where we will be disciplined on margin. It's an area where there's high expertise, time constrained, and therefore it should afford decent margins going forward. On open access applications, we've obviously had some in for a while now, so we're at different phases of them, but our expectation is some of them are more straightforward, i.e., extending Lumo to Glasgow. We don't think that should take too long. Some of the other ones where it's new services, then we think that's probably a six-month process, maybe nine, depending on the volume of work the regulator has to deal with, but we would expect answers to all of them within this financial year.
Is there a problem if it's delayed? Yes, it is, because some of these applications involve new trains, which for the U.K. economy, things are a really positive thing. The way we've assessed these services, we do feel launching them with new trains is preferable, but obviously if lead times are longer, then we have the option to use other rolling stock. But we think from a brand perspective and a sustainability perspective, new trains is the way to go. So, yeah, if it was taken any longer than six-nine months, it would be a concern, but we've no indication that there is going to be any delay. All the political parties we've spoken to over the last six-nine months have been very positive about open access and what it's done for the respective markets it served.
So, we think it brings a lot of choice for customers, it brings value, it brings a different service model, and from what we can see, it's going to be encouraged going forward.
Morning. It's Joe Thomas from HSBC. Just on the point that you were making on franchising, any thoughts on where the enhanced partnership model has sort of perhaps failed and we're seeing local authorities going down that route? And if there's anything that can be done to sort of head off that franchising risk in the future? That'd be one question. Another one, just a general point about the Labour environment now and what sort of pressure you're seeing from the unions and settlement rates at present. I know you said it was 8% last year. And then finally, the revenue attribution model that you mentioned, Ryan, how much have you got baked in for that for this forthcoming financial year within your thoughts?
Okay. I mean, we're very positive in enhanced partnerships, and the reason is it brings an element of public control, which satisfies a local authority, but it attracts private sector investment as well and effectively accelerates decarbonization. So, where you've seen it play out, and Leicester has a Labour mayor, they're up at 50%+ on electric vehicle penetration in the city area, which is fantastic. And where you've seen franchising play out, you've almost got the opposite of that. You've almost got delayed decarbonization because of the process and then everything that follows out. So, I mean, I think even the Labour Party have said that they don't think there's one solution. I think it will vary from area to area.
So, we expect to see more Enhanced Partnerships, but obviously three or four of the big mayoral authorities have declared Franchising, although some of them haven't been specific about exactly what kind of Franchising it will be, what will be the asset model, and so on. So, I think there's a way to go until this plays out because I think a big part of it will be for whatever government gets in will be how much funding is available to execute on some of these initiatives against other choices for that money. So, I still think it's a little uncertain. I guess where we're coming from is we've just effectively decided to be clear for a year or two now that we want to diversify our earnings, and there was a reason behind that.
In FY22, 100% of our adjusted earnings came from DFT, National Rail Contracts, and now it's significantly lower than that. So, we've been working on this for a while, and given the fact we have a strong balance sheet, I think we can play in any aspect of the market as it develops, and we're not restricted in terms of what we bid for. And so, the reality is we feel bus is a growth-oriented story under any circumstance, and we're going to continue with that, but I still think it is a little just because statements have been made, I still think it's a little uncertain as to how it all plays out at this point.
In this Labour environment and settlement rates, how are we seeing the Labour environment for the settlement rates? We've got in the bus business, we've got a number of collective bargaining agreements that are sort of on a staggered basis that we will strike agreements with. A number of those were struck sort of almost during the COVID period before inflation started to move, and so the settlements have been much higher as a part of a catch-up for where wider inflation is. Given where inflation volatility generally, those settlements have been sort of only for one year, but as we kind of look forward with a general sentiment that inflation's going to be much, much improved on a go-forward basis, we're trying to get back to the normal cycle of sort of doing two-year deals, and we'd expect those to be broadly in line with inflation going forwards.
Yeah. And the bulk, just given the timing of the deals on bus, particularly, the bulk of the work has been done for full year 2025 already, and so we have visibility of that. We have good relationships by and large with all collective bargaining units, and we've been able to avoid any material strike action over the last 12 months. And open access rail as well. It's worth adding we've settled with ASLEF, and we've done deals that provide visibility, and they've been done at reasonable levels as well. So, I think we're over the peak challenge of this, and it's really just about managing the business in a fair way and getting the agreements in place that are win-win for both parties. And so far in bus and open access, that's the way it's played out.
Then on the revenue upturn mechanism in rail, we haven't really baked any of that into the numbers on the basis that that works over sort of a 15-month cycle. So, while we can see positive revenue trends today relative to the benchmark, it's ultimately going to get tested over the coming fiscal year, basically, and so that'll be sort of news for the back end of the year.
Thank you. Can I just ask one other question? I'm thinking about other costs as well. I think insurance has potentially been an issue in the sector. Are there any other lines to call out where we're seeing?
Yeah. Insurance for us, we kind of run pretty much a self-insurance model. If anything, we're seeing that come down rather than go up for us in the U.K. I'm sort of pleased that we're sort of out of the U.S because that was an area of great volatility for us in the past, as you know. On the sort of energy for propulsion side, diesel consumption costs will be slightly increased, slightly going into the next fiscal year, probably in line with sort of current inflation levels based on the hedging that we've got in place, but electricity will be substantially lower.
The biggest scale of electric consumption, because of our electrification of our fleet, means that overall propulsion should be coming down rather than be going up in terms of cost, which is one of the contributions contributors to that delta of the total cost of ownership between electric and diesel. It's just so much cheaper to run these vehicles than the alternative. And on Labour, we've touched on engineering. As Graham noted, we've seen substantial savings on moving to electric vehicles because they just simply need to be maintained a lot less because there's far fewer moving parts. And so that should be sort of a downward trend on costs going forward for us as well.
Thanks a lot.
Okay. We've got a question from the webcast. Just a reminder for people who are in the webcast, like to ask a question, please put it into the box at the bottom of the screen. First question is from Alex Paterson from Peel Hunt. Two, please. Is there any cash outflow relating to the LGPS scheme exit going forward, or is it just a GBP 2 million contribution saving? And the second question is, what are your expectations for whether Labour would continue the current level of funding for the bus industry and specifically for the new EVs?
I'll take the cash flow question first. So we've received a net GBP 17 million in fiscal year 2024, Alex, and we've got GBP 3 million was an outflow post year-end. So for LGPS, it was a net GBP 14 million inflow to the group in exiting the scheme, and there's no further outflows going forward. And then we've guided that we should be saving about GBP 2 million in overhead and costs in bus on a go-forward basis as a result of exiting those schemes.
Yeah. In terms of any Labour insight on bus funding in respect of EVs, well, I mean, obviously there's probably two elements of funding worth discussing. First is the GBP 2 fare in England. Obviously, that's been confirmed and worked through, and visibility of the detail of that is just being confirmed up to December 2024, and we're comfortable that it's in line with our expectations at this stage. And then on EVs, on the capital support, they really haven't given much discussion or insight as to their views on that. They're obviously very positive about decarbonization and the role of bus within that.
So, it's difficult to say from a policy perspective, and hence we obviously spend a lot of time going through what we're doing and why we're doing it and just being clear on our credentials in that area, but no indication as to whether they will continue the ZEBRA funding or not.
Thank you. No further questions at the moment. So, Graham, back to you for any closing remarks.
Okay. Well, look, thank you all for attending today either in person or on the webcast. It's much appreciated. It's a good set of results for FirstGroup, and we look forward with positivity, and we'll obviously follow up and do course with any news as it comes out. Again, thanks for your time today. Much appreciated.
Thank you.