Good morning and welcome to the FirstGroup 2025 half-year results presentation. In a moment, I will hand over to Ryan to take you through the financial performance for the half-year, after which I will provide an update on the business performance in bus and rail before we take your questions at the end. And on to slide three. We continue to make progress in strengthening our business, and we remain confident that we are well positioned to deliver further long-term sustainable growth as our industry enters a period of transition under a new government. Our strong performance in the first half of 2025 demonstrates progress on strategy and reinforces our track record for delivery. In First Bus, we have improved operational performance, driving revenue growth and margin expansion, and we've made a number of acquisitions as we grow and diversify our bus earnings.
In FirstRail, good operational delivery continues in our train operating companies and affiliate businesses. In our two open access operations, Hull Trains and Lumo, we continue to grow revenues and earnings as we work to materially increase our open access capacity. We have also received further recognition of our strong sustainability position, reflecting significant investment alongside government co-funding, as we electrify our bus fleet and depot infrastructure at pace. This also supports our credentials when bidding for new contracts. We continue to assess a strong pipeline of organic and inorganic opportunities in both bus and rail, which will drive growth and further diversify our earnings. Our interim dividend has increased by 13% to GBP 0.017 per share, and this reflects the confidence and progress made in delivery of our strategy.
We also remain committed to returning excess capital to our shareholders and have today announced a new GBP 50 million share buyback program. We also expect to maintain earnings per share in full year 2026, as growth in bus and open access rail is offset by the commencement of the transfer of our train operating companies to the public sector. Turning now to slide four. This sets out some of the key highlights in the first half against our strategic framework and our four key priority areas. We continue to improve operational performance in bus and remain on track to reach a 10% adjusted operating profit margin in the second half. Improved driver recruitment has also enabled us to deliver an increase in bus service miles operated as we look to drive more demand for our services.
We're publishing bus Net Promoter Score for the first time as a KPI and are encouraged by the +13 result, which will support insight and delivery of a better customer experience. Driving modal shift is a key component of our strategy. We have made good progress with 4% underlying volume growth in bus and encouraging revenue growth in both Lumo and Hull Trains open access rail and bus adjacent services. We're delighted to receive recognition on the progress made on sustainability. MSCI have upgraded FirstGroup to their highest possible ESG ranking of AAA, and in bus, we've continued electrification of our fleet and depot infrastructure. Growth and diversification of our earnings remains a key strategic priority. Highlights include the acquisition in FirstBus of Anderson Travel and Lakeside Coaches, which will support growth in the adjacent services market.
We've also acquired the track access rights from Grand Union for a new open access rail service between London Euston, and Stirling. I will now hand over to Ryan, who will take us through our financial results for the half-year.
Thank you, Graham, and good morning, everybody. The group has continued to make decent progress during the half-year across all of the businesses, including a much better mix of earnings coming from more sustainable commercial revenue streams. In my presentation, I'll be covering the following three areas: the bus business, well on the path to 10% operating margin for the second half of the year, and also most positively off a much higher revenue base. The financial progress in rail and the expected cash generation that's going to come out over the coming years, and finally, the earnings momentum for full year 2025 and maintaining EPS as we look ahead into full year 2026, despite the planned government policy changes.
Turning to the financial summary on slide six, I've added a new financial KPI that focuses on the revenue of the group that drives shareholder value, that now excludes the DfT TOC revenue other than the fees that we earn, given that we take limited revenue risk and the income is purely fee-based. At the bus business, the prior year included an extra week in reporting that has a minor drag on the current year variances, with the reported numbers having 19 million of revenue and 1.4 million of profit in the comparative period as a result of the extra week. For the half, the group's continuing business adjusted revenues are up year on year as passenger demand improved, net fare increases, and yield management were implemented in bus and open access.
Rail, combined with adjacent revenue growth, were offset by lower government grant funding as the market continues to normalize. Underlying adjusted revenues are up 8%, adjusting for the extra week and the contribution of the Oldham depot in Manchester in the first half of 2024. The revenue improvements in the bus and open access rail have only been partly offset by cost increases. However, combined with low variable fees in the management fee TOCs and the extra week in full year 2024, resulted in adjusted operating profit for the group at GBP 100.8 million, being in line with the prior year. The positive operating profit performance has, however, been impacted by IFRS 16 adjustments in rail being slightly lower, resulting in the group delivering GBP 51.8 million in earnings.
But with the share buyback program that ran throughout full year 2026 and up to August, has meant that EPS at 8.5 pence per share are up 4.9 percentage points year -on -year. This robust underlying business performance and strength of the balance sheet have resulted in the board declaring an interim dividend of 1.7 pence per share, up 13% versus the prior year. The dividend is in line with the current dividend policy of around three times adjusted earnings, with one third paid at the interim. The adjusted net debt for the group ended the period at GBP 0.2 million versus a net cash of GBP 77.1 million in the prior year, with the strong cash generation from the business being offset by GBP 165 million in capital deployment in the business and GBP 125 million being returned to shareholders through the buyback program and dividends paid.
Turning to the bus performance on slide seven, reported bus revenues are up GBP 8.8 million, with higher commercial and adjacent services revenue growth only partially offset by low government funding, where these were down GBP 12.4 million year on year. As noted before, the prior year did include an extra week of circa GBP 19 million in revenue. And excluding this and the contribution of Oldham that went to franchising in Manchester, underlying revenues were up 8%. The increase in revenue has been underpinned by solid passenger demand growth, as well as continued expansion into the B2B and contract market from both organic and inorganic growth.
Strong revenue growth has, however, only been partly offset by underlying inflation cost increases of roughly 3% of the inflationary cost base, particularly in driver wages and engineering staff, with these cost increases mitigated by other efficiencies on the transition to EV fleet, as well as the energy hedging program that we've got in place. As a result, bus delivered an operating profit of GBP 41.1 million, which is up GBP 5.1 million, or 14%, and a sequential margin improvement up to 8%. That is 90 basis points up year-o n -year, reflecting a decent trend in what is a seasonally lower first half and good progress towards the 10% margin in the second half.
The bus post-tax return on capital employed at 11.4% is marginally up year on y ear as the business continues to generate better operating profit or asset base that has increased mainly as a result of further growth in investment in electrification, as well as working capital flows and the changing the way the funding operated in the bus business over the last 12 months, with this funding now being in arrears. Turning to rail on slide eight, the rail business continues to deliver strong financial performance in the period, including a better distribution of earnings as we continue to diversify the rail portfolio, with open access and additional services revenue of GBP 112.3 million, up 12% on the prior year.
For the management fee TOCs, these delivered an attributable net income of GBP 14 million after tax and non-controlling interests, which is down GBP 9.2 million on the prior year, with the prior year benefiting from the catch-up in fees from full year 2023 performance. The open access business made a combined operating profit of GBP 18.1 million in the period, up GBP 2.4 million, driven by continued strong demand and yield management, only partially offset by inflation. The additional services in rail delivered an operating profit of GBP 5.7 million, with steady progress in delivery by all the business units versus the prior year, offset by some of the business development costs that we are incurring in the current year, mainly in bidding for the Elizabeth Line in London, as well as progressing the open access expansion applications.
This resulted in a reported adjusted operating profit of GBP 67.9 million, which is an underlying improvement on prior year if you exclude the GBP 13 million of performance fee recognition relating to full year 2023. Turning to EPS growth on slide nine, on a post-tax basis for the variances. In the period, earnings from the DfT TOCs are 1.3 pence lower, and with the focus on diversifying our portfolio to a better quality earnings underpin, the DfT TOC earnings are now down to less than a quarter of the group's EPS, with this relative contribution expected to continue to decrease as we look further ahead. Open access and additional services contribute an additional 0.2 pence in growth, with this now at 2.6 pence of EPS in the half, is a materially higher proportion of earnings now coming from a more sustainable part of the rail business.
FirstBus increase in operating profits contributed GBP 0.005 to the improvement, and central costs are GBP 0.004 lower year on year, partly driven by cost efficiencies, as well as from allocating a higher proportion of central costs to the divisions to where the activity relates. Interest costs were GBP 0.005 higher due mainly to lower interest received on lower cash deposits. The buyback program that ran throughout full year 2024 and up to August of the current year has resulted in a lower number of average shares in issue, and that has added GBP 0.011 to the EPS. So, as can be seen in the chart, the work that we've been doing over the past few years has not only grown the EPS, but more equally importantly, has resulted in a far better distribution in the quality of earnings.
Looking at the adjusted cash flow on slide 10 that excludes ring-fenced cash in rail, as well as the impact of IFRS 16, the group generated GBP 78.5 million in EBITDA before the rail management fee TOC cash inflows, where we received GBP 9.2 million in the period relating to TPE that ended in May 2023. As a reminder, these management fees are generally paid by way of dividend in the second half of the following year following the completion of the audited accounts. Working capital was a net GBP 15.6 million outflow in the period, mainly relating to the timing difference in receivables that are largely expected to reverse in the second half, and resulted in a total of GBP 72.1 million in capital generated from operation in what is a seasonally lower first half.
This underlying capital generated was deployed in investing GBP 61.8 million in CapEx, net of grant funding, primarily in the bus on the electrification of the fleet, where we have the largest EV fleet in the regional bus market, combined with a small investment in open access growth from the acquisition of the Stirling to London rights. FirstBus generated GBP 10.5 million in disposals, mainly relating to the battery sales into the strategic joint venture partnership with Hitachi. Pensions and employee benefit trust payments of GBP 12.7 million include the shares acquired by the employee benefit trust. Circa GBP 3 million was paid relating to the pension settlement for the exit from the local government pension schemes in the prior year and the $6 million that was paid on the Greyhound USA pension buyout.
GBP 7 million was paid in cash, interest, and tax, mainly relating to the interest on the now repaid 2024 bond and new finance lease arrangements for the electric fleet in bus, offset by interest earned on cash balances. There was a normal amount of cash tax paid in the period, with a low level of cash tax driven by the historical losses and the accelerated capital allowances that should now apply for several years yet, given our decarbonization investment program. GBP 24 million was paid by way of final dividend for full year 2024, and GBP 41.4 million was spent in completing the share buyback program. This resulted in the group ending the period in a marginal net debt position.
Looking ahead for the financial outlook for full year 25 on slide 11, the group continues to make good progress year to date, and the outlook for the year is marginally ahead of our expectations that we set out in June, with the further benefit of the continued improvement in the mix in earnings. The bus business is anticipating to make sequential operating profit progress year on year to full year 25 in line with our expectations and is anticipated to reach the 10% margin in the second half of the year.
At rail, we anticipate delivering a result in full year 2025 ahead of our expectations, with the management fees from the three TOCs in line with expectations, and the open access and additional services businesses are anticipated to deliver results ahead of full year 2024, given the strong demand in open access, partially offset by the inflationary cost pressures. We anticipate incurring GBP 50-55 million in interest, of which GBP 40 million relates to IFRS 16 accounting due mainly to the no-risk DfT rail leases. We remain on track to deploy circa GBP 125 million in CapEx, net of grants in bus, mainly on the electrification of fleets and depots, after taking into account cash benefit of circa GBP 15 million from the Hitachi strategic battery partnership. Rail remains capital light, with some investment expected for inorganic growth opportunities in open access.
We anticipate to end the year in a marginally adjusted net debt position after paying the ordinary dividends and assuming around half of the GBP 50 million share buyback program announced today is completed by year end. This net debt guidance is, however, before the execution of any further inorganic growth opportunities that we continue to evaluate. Finally, on slide 12, given the announced changes to government policy going forward, in particular relating to the DfT TOCs, we have set out some guidance for full year 26, where we expect EPS to be maintained year on year. At the bus business, we anticipate making further progress in both top line growth from the organic and inorganic growth activities that we've undertaken, as well as the sequential growth in operating profit. The recent government budget does have an impact on the business.
However, we believe that these should be fully mitigated through yield management, operational efficiencies, and other management actions. In FirstRail, the government's announced policy is to bring the National Rail Contracts into public ownership at the earliest possible opportunity. The SWR contract ends in May 2025, the GWR core contract ends in June 2025, and the Avanti West Coast core contract ends in October 2026. All contracts require the rail business to be able to continue to support the operational activities for at least a year after the contract end date, and hence we anticipate that the additional services business will be providing support throughout the full year 2026 on similar terms.
As the management fees for the DfT TOCs are paid a year in arrears, we anticipate that at least GBP 80 million in cash will be received from the DfT TOCs from April 2025 onwards if the franchises are nationalized at the end of the core terms. This includes the supporting additional services businesses after any recognition of costs that the group may incur. The open access business is expected to continue to grow from the existing strong base, with the inorganic opportunities only contributing beyond full year 26, however, with anticipated startup costs during full year 26.
In terms of investment in bus, underlying CapEx is anticipated at circa GBP 100 million, which is at a lower level than in recent year run rates, given our accelerated investment in electrification in the bus business and the fleet now being well capitalized with the average age of less than nine years. By the end of full year 2026, we anticipate on having over 900 electric vehicles or more than 20% of the fleet in operation. The funding valuation for the pension sections of the pension scheme is currently ongoing and is anticipated to be finalized by July 2025. The finalization of this valuation determines how much of the GBP 79 million escrow monies will be returned to the group, and there's a further GBP 22 million relating to the group pension section that has a longer review period.
Our strong, well-capitalized balance sheet and cash-generative business model provides the group with great flexibility and options for driving value creation for shareholders, both in the deployment of growth capital as well as returns, as with the GBP 50 million buyback program announced today, and I hand over to Graham for the business review.
Thank you, Ryan, for the comprehensive financial update. I'll now move on to slide 14. The FirstBus team have continued to make good progress against the backdrop of a challenging economic climate. They've delivered an operating profit margin of 8.0% in the first half, up from 7.1% in the prior year, and remain on track to deliver the 10% target in the second half of 2025. This follows a number of years of sequential progress in the business and consistency in delivery of margin.
Underlying passenger volumes were up 4% as we carried 204 million passengers in the first half. Passenger volumes have continued to benefit from service improvements, under-22 travel in Scotland, and the £2 fare cap in England. The £2 fare cap will be replaced by a £3 fare cap from 1 January, and will run to the end of December 2025. The detailed terms and conditions have not yet been confirmed, but we believe the £3 fare cap will still protect the majority of our customers from the largest increases back to uncapped fares, and in turn, protect the volume uplifts we have seen on the longer journey routes. We're currently reviewing our commercial strategy, and any relevant changes will be implemented in January 2025.
As we complete this work, we will also look at options to manage the circa GBP 15 million impact of the budget change to employers' National Insurance contributions. As with any government policy change that negatively impacts our business, we anticipate that it will be managed through a combination of price yield management and operational efficiencies. Our operated mileage has increased by 4% in the first half, and we've grown our underlying revenue per mile by 5% as a result of improved passenger volumes and better service reliability due to continued focus on driver recruitment and training. This maintains the progress made in prior periods as we focus on efficiently growing our bus revenues. And moving on to slide 15, we continue to see opportunities to grow our bus business in the U.K. A number of devolved mayoral authorities have indicated that franchising is the preferred future option.
We continue to build relationships and have developed a strong commercial team to participate in each of the bid processes, with the first likely being Liverpool City Region. There's still uncertainty over which franchising models will be deployed, and in particular around the fleet and depot ownership. Different areas could certainly have different models. Our balance sheet strength leaves us very well positioned to participate as franchising rolls out. We also continue to see both organic and inorganic growth opportunities in adjacent services, primarily in airport services, workplace shuttles, and B2B and B2C coach. Half-year revenues have doubled over the last two years, and we continue to build on this with the recent acquisitions of Anderson Travel and Lakeside Coaches. Both quality businesses purchase at a fair price, and they also increase our depot footprint.
On electrification, we continue to make good progress thanks to our significant investment over recent years and our in-house expertise. We now have 15% of our fleet zero emission and 650 charging outlets now in operation. We continue to build third-party charging relationships, and we expect this to grow as we build out more depot infrastructure. Another significant milestone for FirstBus has been our entry into the repower market for mid-age diesel or hybrid buses, which have been converted to run on electricity. In addition to an earlier partnership with Equipmake for 12 electric buses in York, we've placed the UK's largest single repower order with Wrightbus for 32 electric conversions scheduled for delivery in full year 2025. This adds to our decarbonization strategy and gives us the potential for future development in this area.
Moving on to rail on slide 16, our teams managing the national rail contracts at GWR, SWR, and Avanti West Coast Partnership have continued to focus on operational delivery, innovation, and cost control as we work hard to offer better rail services to our customers. Attributable net income from the national rail contracts has reduced in the first half, but that's solely due to the GBP 13 million higher than accrued full year 2023 variable fees in the prior year. Passenger volumes continue to grow up an encouraging 7% in the first half of 2025 to 131 million. We also continue to manage several significant investment programs, including the introduction of new fleets for both Avanti and SWR. The recent introduction of the Class 807 electric trains has allowed us to offer more services to Liverpool.
Avanti is one of the few rail operators in the UK increasing the level of services to customers. Our additional services business has continued to progress and perform well, with revenues up circa 10% in the first half of 2025. We've also commenced the operation of the London Cable Car in June and submitted a bid for the Elizabeth Line with our partner Keolis, with the result expected soon. In line with government-announced policy, the DfT train operating companies will move into public ownership. We're still awaiting further direction on how this will take place, but expect further detail over the next few weeks. As we go through this period of transition for the group, we anticipate that our national rail contracts will generate a cash inflow of circa GBP 80 million over a three-year period from April 2025.
Now moving on to open access rail on slide 18, all trains in Lumo continue to exceed expectations and deliver material improvements in financial performance, with growth rates significantly above the market. They are demonstrating what private operators can do for the industry. They're stimulating demand and providing competitive, sustainable, and reliable services to underserved markets. Both businesses saw double-digit revenue growth in the first half and an increase in passenger numbers. Seat capacity utilization at both Hull Trains and Lumo remains significantly above the national average, and we've added capacity on Hull Trains to meet demand on certain peak services. Furthermore, both Hull Trains and Lumo continue to be among the most reliable operators in the country. We've also highlighted the positive role open access plays with key social and economic contributions, including more affordable travel and investment in apprenticeships.
We continue to pursue growth opportunities where we can further leverage our capability and experience. We have recently acquired the Grand Union Trains track access rights to run a new open access rail service on the West Coast Main Line from London Euston to Stirling. Confirmation of our plans and operational start date will be available soon, and on service launch, we'll increase our overall open access seat capacity by circa 50%. As you are also aware, we have several other open access applications in progress with the regulator, and we expect to start being notified of updates and decisions in the first six months of 2025. Our ambition to drive long-term growth in open access rail remains clear, with good progress made over the last few months.
Moving on to slide 19 to conclude, our strong set of results in the first half of our financial year demonstrates that our strategy continues to deliver. We remain confident of our strong position as we continue to diversify our earnings and prepare to enter a period of transition in rail. As we've set out in today's presentation, we expect to deliver on our full year 2025 commitments and maintain earnings per share in full year 2026. In FirstBus, we have a clear plan to navigate the evolving market, to grow and diversify our portfolio, and to deliver sustainable earnings growth. As the electrification of our fleet and infrastructure continues at pace, we will look to unlock cost efficiencies and leverage our capabilities when bidding for new contracts.
In FirstRail, we will continue to prioritize contractual and operational delivery in our national rail contracts, look to materially expand our open access capacity and revenues, and to bid for contracts where we can bring forward our experience and capability. FirstGroup will undoubtedly change over the next few years given developments in government policy, but we're well placed to manage this transition. Our strategic framework will maintain focus on delivering every day, driving modal shift, leading in environmental and social sustainability, and diversifying and growing our portfolio. Furthermore, our balance sheet capacity leaves us well positioned as we continue to evaluate a strong pipeline of growth opportunities in both bus and rail. We remain committed to our disciplined capital allocation policy, and we'll return any surplus cash to our shareholders.
In closing, we have delivered good financial and operational progress in the first half of 2025, but we still have much more to do and remain focused on the task at hand. Thank you for your time this morning. We will now open to questions, and we will start with questions from the room and then go to the webcast.
Okay. Thanks, Merrick. Gerald Khoo from Panmure Liberum. Two from me, if I can. Firstly, on the NPS, the bus NPS score, I know you said you're publishing it for the first time. How has that evolved over time in terms of the data that you have? And what do you think is driving that positive NPS? And secondly, you talked about repowering.
I was just wondering whether you could indicate what's the difference in cost, sort of CapEx cost for a sort of repowered bus versus a brand new EV, and what useful life do you get from a repowered bus?
Okay, thank you very much. I'll take the first question. Maybe Ryan, you could do the second. On NPS, I mean, it's quite early days. We've introduced this about six months ago, but we've been working on the introduction for a period of time. I mean, we are very focused on really looking at the customer and the customer's experience in bus and what we can do to improve it, and we wanted to take a tried and trusted methodology and apply it to this industry.
And we want to be open about it and make it visible to investors in the market because it's a real reflection of the quality of your operation, the quality of your people, and what you're trying to do every single day. So having been through this in a number of industries, I think the start point is encouraging. I think a positive NPS shows that for the majority of the time, we're getting it right for our customers. But we obviously want to push that forward as much as possible over time, and we're committed as a team to do it. So not massive learnings yet. It's early stages, but the team are very focused on it, and we're obviously putting it out there today, and we will continue to do so going forward.
And then on the repowering, the average diesel bus has a major engine change mid-life, and it's quite symmetrical between the age of the husk and the age of the battery in that the battery life is probably about half the life of a husk. So when we get to that point on a diesel vehicle where we would go through a normal major engine overhaul, we're taking that engine out and putting in an electric drivetrain. The battery cost going into a repowered vehicle versus the battery cost going into an existing EV that's got to be replaced halfway through its life is about the same. So there's a reasonable amount of symmetry there. There's probably about 700 vehicles in our fleet that we would be targeting for repower. So it's not all of the diesel vehicles.
There's just only a certain particular type of diesel vehicle that we think is the most efficient to do at this stage based on where technology is. So it does cost a little bit more than traditional just engine change, but because you're getting that economic value out of the battery life and the efficiencies that come with an electric drivetrain rather than a diesel on a go forward basis from an engineering perspective, it's a really good thing for us to be doing.
Yep. Good morning. It's Ruairi Cullinane from RBC. Firstly, could you expand on the cost efficiencies planned in bus? Will reductions in mileage be required as the bus fare cap comes to an end? Secondly, as increasing parts of the bus business shift to franchising, I suppose that might be an EBIT margin headwind, but in some instances come with lower CapEx requirements.
Do you think you can generate similar cash flows or return on capital employed if more of the UK does shift to franchising? And then finally, it would seem from the outside that it's going to be a big job for the DfT Operator of Last Resort to nationalize all the TOCs at the first opportunity. From what you're seeing on the ground, is the government working very hard to do so? Thank you.
Okay. Right. I'll take the first one, and we might share the next one, and then I'll do the last one. On the fare cap and cost efficiencies, a network, I mean, the way I would look upon this is that we operate in a market that changes is normal.
We've seen funding reduce over the last few years, and we've obviously worked hard on route profitability, and that's by and large how we've improved our business over time. So we kind of look upon this as just the next stage of the evolution of the business. So we will always look at price yield management, as you would expect us to do. There's always opportunities there. We will always look at the profitability of our network, and if we feel there's changes that should be made, we will make them. And as you know, over the last few years, we have disposed of one part of our business that we felt we would struggle to make profitable in the long term, and we have shut down certain routes over time. And in terms of cost, like any business, we're constantly looking at being as efficient as we can.
I don't want this to be seen as a kind of dynamic event. What it is, is normal evolution of the business, and we've got a mentality of continuous improvement, and that's what we're going to try and do. The reality of the fare cap is changes that we will look at all aspects of our business and try and improve them. We're working, obviously, on that at the moment. We still have to see details of the cap, exactly what it means. We'll start any changes we plan to make, we'll start in January and run through to April, and that's what we'll do there. In terms of franchising, I'll let Ryan cover the cash impacts, etc., and CapEx.
But I mean, I think this is likely still to play over a period of time, and we don't foresee any material, very limited changes to portfolio in full year 2026 and full year 2027. There's a lot of work that has to be done to deliver a franchise model. You've got the consultation phase, you've got the design phase, you've got to be looking at fares, IT, operations. It's a big exercise. So invariably, there can be ways that you might be able to quicken it up, but there's a lot of work to be done upfront if it's going to be effective on launch. So I think our views will begin to see the impacts of that in full year 2028 and beyond.
But when you look at the schedule that's coming out, there's probably four or five areas that will come out over that period and be involved in processes where we have no business, and there's two areas that we think will come out over that period where we do have business. So we're kind of leading into this with a positive mindset. Clearly, margins will be lower, and I'll let Ryan talk through that now, but I just want to make the point that we still feel there'll be very limited impact in the next two fiscal years.
Yeah. In terms of margins, I mean, there's a couple of dynamics going on. I think it's going to very much depend on the actual mode that they execute franchising.
Either they're going to be going for the ownership model themselves of the fleet and depots, or there could be a hybrid like we saw in Manchester where they own the depots, but the operator owned the fleet. I think in the medium term, as part of the sort of electrification journey that the sector needs to go on, I mean, we are market leaders in this space, so we know exactly what it takes in order to be able to electrify depots and get them up and running and working. It is a very, very complicated exercise. It's not something that can happen very quickly. But as a result of that, I suspect the medium-term model will probably be an alternative ownership model. And in that context, I think you'll end up having a slightly lower margin scenario.
But to Graham's point, we've got more opportunity than we have risk, we think, from franchising in terms of market participation. And so we'd have a substantially greater top line as a result, albeit maybe at a slightly lower level of margin. And in getting to that point, because as you know, we've got an ownership model as our preferred model in terms of the assets and depots rather than a leased model, and we try and participate as much as we can in all of the commercial offerings that come with that ownership model. If that shifts to being something where the local authorities or the combined authorities are owning all of the assets, clearly for those places where we've got existing operations, that would be an enormous capital release that would come out of that in getting there.
So as you go over transition, top line growth, potentially lower margins, but a substantial amount of cash that will come out of the business. But it's very much going to depend on what model they're going to actually go for from an ownership perspective.
Okay. Thanks, Ryan. And on the DfT, OLR, and the nationalization process, I mean, obviously, there's been strong messaging put out in the first kind of five months from the Labour government, but we still haven't got any details of how it's going to be done. Obviously, there's been some comments this week being made from the DfT and Secretary of State that when the current bill gets royal assent, they will give the first train operating company three months' notice, but with no detail of who that is at this point.
We're in a situation where we plan for the worst and assume the contracts will go at that point. I think the reality is there is a lot of contracts with the potential to go over the next six to nine months, and I think most people in the industry think it will be hard for them all to be delivered in that kind of timescale. So I guess our expectation is that from what we've heard and seen so far is some form of timetable or view as to how the companies will be brought in-house will probably be published shortly after the bill gets brought on the sent, and then we will work accordingly from there.
Morning. It's Joe Thomas from HSBC. Just turning to open access. There's a big increase in mileage, I think you said, from the Euston to Stirling route.
Can you just give some view on likely ramp-up there, the sort of utilization? I know margins have been relatively high and the expectation that how that would affect the margin profile of the business. Secondly, on open access, I just would like any sort of update on how the other applications are progressing and whether the changing government has changed the pace of that at all. And then finally, I think you said that you had capital available to participate in the event of franchising. And now, Ryan, I think you're also talking about capital release. I was just wondering if you could sort of square that off. I think you might have done to some extent, but what sort of things would you be buying if you were deploying capital? Would it be depots, or would it be businesses? Okay.
On open access then and Stirling, I mean, obviously, as we said, that we will announce shortly our launch plan, launch dates, and give a view as to how that what we see that business delivering. I'd love to be able to tell you today, but we need a week or two just to finish that process off, and then we will obviously announce it. In terms of margins, obviously, we are performing very well on Lumo and Hull Trains, and obviously, part of that is the fixed rolling stock prices that we entered into five years ago. With inflation over the period of time, you have a natural benefit there. Obviously, we're getting very high utilization as well, which is helping driving top line growth and therefore bottom line growth.
I mean, obviously, that level of margin, we're not going to maintain on Stirling or other new business coming through. So the way you've got to look about it is this is a business that we hope will have material revenue growth over the next three to five years and strong absolute growth in margin, but the margin percentage will weaken as we launch more and more services. So I think that's the way you've got to look upon it. In terms of other applications, we've got a number in and have been in for a while. There's probably two types of situation within there. There's some where they're either extension to what we're doing or potentially small change to an existing agreement, and we think they're more likely to be responded to and come through sooner, hopefully early in 2025.
We have some where they're competed, where there are other applications in there that touch or cut across our application, so they will take a little bit longer. Our hope is that by mid-2025, we will have a view on the majority of those applications.
Then in terms of capital for franchising, Joe, the point there is that we've got a strong balance sheet so we can participate irrespective of the mode that they go for. It's not our gift on franchising. It's going to be their gift as to how they want to design it. If they want us to own the buses, we'll own the buses.
If they want us to own the depots and help them with the electrification journey like we did in Oldham, we'll do that for them because we've got the intellectual property and the IP and the capability to do that. So I think that's the point on franchising. We just don't quite know just yet. But if it goes a capital-light model, I expect there'll be slightly lower margins, but a huge amount of cash generation. If it's a capital-heavy model, then it'll be higher margins with the normal level of bus operations that you see today with a different risk profile. Yeah.
Hello. Anton Proutorov from Citigroup. Two questions, please. First one, on the Autumn Budget, it pledges the grants for the development of EV network and infrastructure. Do you already at this point understand the mechanics of this process and the possible implications for a CapEx?
Second question, on your recent partnership with FlixBus, could you just talk through the rationale for the partnership over expanding to the new routes yourself and your expectations for the potential revenue contributions? And should we expect these kinds of partnerships in the future?
Okay. On budget EV CapEx, don't have the detail around that at the moment. We've obviously participated in anything that's been available previously. We've bid for and been reasonably successful in. In relation to the future, it's uncertain at this point, so until we see a bit more detail. I mean, I'll let maybe Ryan talk about some of the detail on FlixBus, but at a top level, we've been clear all along that part of our plan is to use our depot infrastructure and optimize it, try and bring more revenue streams through it.
And this is a classic contract where we're able to do that and therefore make a good return, reasonable margins. Obviously, we don't have the brand strength and coach that FlixBus would have and some of the other operators, so we don't have plans for a national coach operation. But we certainly feel there's opportunities to leverage what we have today to grow our revenues and effectively grow our margins, and that's why we've taken advantage of the opportunity at a macro level. Ryan, maybe you want to talk about some of the detail.
Yeah. I mean, on the detail, and as you saw from the announcement, it's a couple of 20, I think 23 coaches that we're buying, and it's a five-year contract with the ability to be able to extend it.
I mean, the great thing about this is that we're using our existing depot footprint in the large to be able to deliver this, and so it's a utilization factor of something that wasn't being used before. And it's a classic B2B contract, as Graham said. They've got a really, really strong brand that's growing really strongly, and if we can come alongside them on a strategic partnership to deliver these routes for them using our scale and capability, then it seems like a good deal for everybody.
Hi. Jack Cummings at Berenberg. Two questions, please. I think you said there was 3% cost inflation in bus with 5% in drivers' wages. As we're thinking about full year 2026, how do you think inflation in the bus business is going to trend, both in terms of wages and also other cost lines?
And then secondly, just on capital allocation, I think buyback was the biggest contributor to the EPS growth. For the new buyback, why is GBP 50 million the right number? Why is GBP 100 million not the right number? And should we think that that GBP 50 million is kind of a signal that potentially there's more M&A on the agenda coming soon?
Good questions. I mean, on the cost inflation, I mean, I think the encouraging thing is that the team have managed it well, low profile. We've over 80% of what we need to get done in this fiscal year done, and that gives us flow through into next year.
I think our general view at the moment is just given how wage settlements have played out over the last six months, both in the public sector and the private sector, we still feel there will be some pressure on wages for above inflation wage increases. But we do feel that's on a flattening trend now. And actually, the bulk of what we have to deal with will be actually from the middle of next calendar year onwards. We're actually quite well protected in terms of how we flow into next year. So we feel in a reasonable position, not complacent. There is still pressure on wages. In terms of capital allocation, and again, we'll let Ryan comment as well. I mean, why is GBP 50 million the right number?
We wanted to give a clear message that any excess capital will be returned to shareholders and also to reinforce the cash-generative nature of the business and the confidence we have in the strategy and delivery over time. GBP 50 million will probably take us through to roughly the middle of next year, and then we'll obviously reassess the position there. In terms of M&A, we're always looking at opportunities. We've been quite consistent over the last couple of years around that. We've been consistent that we had to diversify our earnings. We were largely dependent on the train operating companies three years ago. So the plan has been very clear to do that. So we have a small team that's actively looking at opportunities. And what's really interesting now is after the recent acquisition, we actually have people approaching us now with quite a lot of inbound contacts.
So I guess through our activity and discipline, we're beginning to create a pipeline of good opportunity. And we're very clear we want to buy quality businesses at a fair price that fit with our existing business and give us the potential for synergies and the potential for growth. So when we've been very clear, so we will constantly look at them. We have a good pipeline, and if there's another one, you'll be the first to hear. Just in terms of capital allocation.
Yeah. I mean, there's no change in our financial policy where we'd be confident of going up to two times adjusted EBITDA. And from a net debt point of view, we're sitting at the moment at pretty flat to nothing and regarding the full year to being modest net debt with the buyback program.
So in terms of potential and our capacity to be able to do more, if we wanted to do more, then that clearly exists in terms of the strength of the balance sheet.
Yeah. And largely, the way we've approached it is the smaller acquisitions, we'll deleverage operating cash flow. If there's a larger one comes along, we have no problem, as Ryan said, taking a bit of leverage. Yeah. So any questions on the webcast?
Yeah. We've got a couple of questions on the webcast. First question is from Sathish at Citigroup. He said, "Good morning. I have two questions. Can you touch on opportunity for bus franchise in the U.K. regional markets, and has there been any progress outside of Manchester? In which regional market do you see opportunity for M&A in the bus segment?" Okay.
I mean, on bus franchising, as we said, we know Liverpool will bring forward their procurement process early in 2025, and we think that'll be the first one. But we're also seeing activity in Cambridge and Peterborough. We're seeing it in West Midlands, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire. Obviously, West and South Yorkshire, we are there. And we're seeing it in the North East and West Midlands. So there's five to seven regions that have given strong steer that that's the way they intend to go. And obviously, when the Better Buses Bill comes out, we need to see the detail in there and see if that stimulates further growth. But franchising isn't always the right solution for every area. We think this is going to be a mixed estate over time.
I guess all we're trying to get, the point we're trying to get across, is we're well positioned to bid and participate in these processes. In terms of M&A and bus, I think what you'll see is more of the same. We have a wide market. We obviously have a good market share in the regional bus market, but we have a small market share in adjacent services and B2B, and that's where we've been really pushing. Over the last couple of years, we've doubled our revenues in two years, which is encouraging. And the acquisitions that we've brought into the business now have margins close to the mid-teens, which is very, very encouraging. But also, there are other opportunities that may come up. London has potential over time. It's obviously quite a settled market at the moment.
I think, obviously, we will continue, I think, to see a number of smaller roll-up acquisitions take place, and we'll participate in those.
Thank you. Next question comes from Alex at Peel Hunt. He said, "Please, can you quantify bid costs in H2 and how you would expect them to change in H2 FY25 and FY26? Do you expect to hear conclusions for all open access track applications in H1 2025, or do you expect it to take longer to get a decision on every application you have made?"
Okay. Ryan, do you want to talk about bid costs?
Yeah. On the bid cost, I mean, obviously, the big one that we've applied for to date is Elizabeth Line, and we're still waiting to hear the outcome on that.
I think they described it in sort of over winter, which somewhere in the first part of next year, I expect. That's where we kind of spent most of the money. I mean, to be fair, a large part of that resource came from our own internal teams, which we've maintained given our capabilities. We spend a reasonable amount of resource on the open access applications that we've submitted. Once we get more traction on the outcomes of those, then clearly that's when the real cost will ramp up in terms of mobilization and getting ready for delivery. If we've got the London Overground still coming as well after the Elizabeth Line, which we would look to participate in as well, and we'd expect to spend a pretty similar amount on that as we did on the Elizabeth Line because they're fairly similar in scale.
So, order of magnitude, sort of GBP 3-5 million. Okay.
And yeah, I mean, I think our best view is that by the middle of next calendar year, the majority of our applications, we will have some form of resolution on. I mean, obviously, the regulator has a lot of workload and has to work through it, but we will help with that. We think they're quality cases that we've put in. So we have a positive view. I mean, the Secretary of State's also reinforced this week at the Transport Select Committee the role of open access and her view that she sees that growing going forward, and she called out Lumo specifically. And obviously, we want to use the Lumo brand on the West Coast Main Line as well with the Stirling application.
So yeah, we have a positive view, but obviously, until it's all washed through the system, we won't know, but our general view is the middle of next calendar year.
Thank you. There are no further questions, so I'll hand back over to you for any closing remarks.
Well, look, thank you all for giving us your time this morning. We hope it was useful. And I guess just to close, we have a very positive view of the future, and we'll do our very best to keep the story moving forward in a great manner. So thanks for your time today, and it's much appreciated.