Everyone. Thank you for joining us today in this 2022 Full Year Preliminary Results for Fresnillo PLC. Here with me, I'm joined by Mario Arreguín, our CFO; Tomás Iturriaga, our Chief Operating Officer; Guillermo Gastélum, our Vice President of Exploration, along with our colleagues from the Investor Relations here in London. As always, I have to point out to a disclaimer before I begin. Just a summary of the information on the agenda we have for today. I will give you some highlights regarding financial results, operational results, followed by Tomás Iturriaga, who will go in more detail about the operational details. Guillermo Gastélum will address some of the recent developments in our projects as well as resources and reserves.
Followed by Mario Arreguín, who will go in detail about our financial performance. I will close with some comments on the outlook before we go on your questions as well. The investment proposition in Fresnillo, I believe remains compelling and consistent as it has been over more than a decade of the listed company in London. Of course, notwithstanding some of the recent challenges in the operations that we've faced, most notably the labor reform in Mexico that, given the business model that we have and through which we've grown in Fresnillo PLC, it had a significant impact in our operations. We benefit, of course, from a large portfolio of quality assets, 2.2 billion ounces of silver in resources, and nearly 40 million gold resources.
We are the world's leading silver producer and have built a solid position of gold production, largest in Mexico. We have a strong EBITDA. We focus on running our operations as efficient and cost efficient as possible. Therefore, we continue to generate healthy margins, as I mentioned, with our focus on cost mitigation and control in our operations. Of course, along with this, quality assets, we have a large portfolio of exploration concessions in Mexico, but also in Peru and Chile. We develop our projects, and we have a solid position to keep on consolidating, concretizing these projects, bring them into our production stream. The most recent, of course, Juanicipio, that we will talk about in the Fresnillo district. Moving to health, safety, environment, and community relations, I'm glad to report, advance in all our sustainability framework.
Health and safety, we keep on consolidating our culture through the I Care, We Care program. This across all of our operations, as well as our exploration team and exploration offices. As you can see, we continue to advance and have better statistics in this front, which is the most important to keep safe to all of our people that work in our operations and our teams. On the environment front as well, we continue to place great importance on reducing our carbon footprint. Due to some administrative issues due to the energy reform in Mexico, we have dropped our consumption of wind energy. Currently, we stand at 35.6% of our total energy coming from eolic sources. We aim, we continue to target 75% of our energy use, electricity, by 2030.
We place great importance on how efficient we are in the use of water in our mines. Also in terms of reducing our footprint at the mines. We are in a better position to keep reducing the diesel in our haulage trucks in the open pit mines. We have the permit to storage and use better our truck fleets that we have in Herradura very much, and you will see that efficiency being captured down the road. We have a very strong, we continue to work in our governance framework around our tailings and storage facilities. I'm glad to report that Juanicipio will have the first tailings storage facility that complies all the way from design, construction, and now operation through some of the international codes.
And also, on the community front, I mean, we continue working on four pillars. One being, of course, health. The other one being education. A better-educated community is a one that we can have an open and more direct dialogue around our mines. We also place a lot of importance of strengthening the entrepreneurial capabilities on the communities and people around our operations, so that they can work and share the economic benefit of being around the mines and also after we have not an operation anymore in the area. Of course, water. Drinking water. Drinkable water in the area is another one of our pillars to work with community relations. Some of the highlights.
Once again, I'm pleased to report that although this has been a challenging year, 2022, we've been able to achieve guidance that we gave to the market and place a solid number of results in our operations. Most notably the case of Fresnillo, in which we have increased production. We have hit grades more consistently as well, and also we have achieved our guidance in the rest of the operations. Of course, this running our operations efficiently gives us a possibility, as I mentioned, to have good cash flows and continue sourcing our product pipeline. Glad to report two new projects that keep on advancing. A good exploration result in Guanajuato, in which we increased substantially our silver resources.
This is a ore body in an old mining district in which we have silver, but also gold metal there. One more, which is Tajitos, what we talked about in the past. Also, good drilling program in order to delineate these ore bodies for the second quarter of this year. Therefore, will give us a possibility to keep on advancing this project, PEA, pre-feasibility, and all those process. On the financial performance, we are not immune, of course, to inflation and, as I mentioned, some of the impact that we've had in our operations from the labor reform, which limits the use of contractors.
And given the model that we have in Fresnillo, that place a lot of challenges across all of our operations, especially in a labor market which is has its difficulties having to recruit, train, and have this talented new workforce in place. Being focused on cost in our operations, our EBITDA margins are quite attractive. We have a solid balance sheet and a cash position, a good cash position at the end of the year. We have a consistent dividend policy with $13.3 per share above market expectations, and making the total dividend for the year $0.167 per share. With that, I will pass the microphone to my colleague, Tomás Iturriaga, on the very front.
Thanks, Octavio. Good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased to be here to share with you some of the highlights of our operations in 2022. I would say that with both silver and gold full year 2022 production within guided range, the operations performed according to expectations. I think that during last year, resilience was the main attribute that we demonstrated as we were able to stabilize our operations after a very few challenging years, including a year, 2021, when we needed to cope with the impacts of the labor reform and several other operational challenges in our mines. Our hiring program continued performing well last year under a very tight labor market in Mexico. With our training programs taking more relevance as younger employees are joining our workforce.
Lots of work ahead of us, and of course, and room for improvement, but I'm very pleased with the progress that we have made in last year, and I believe that our operations are in a stronger position now than they were in recent years. At Fresnillo mine, we continue the improvement in our operations, sustaining a production increase of 13% year-over-year, with cash costs and all-in sustaining costs remaining stable despite the high inflationary environment and the strong Mexican peso. San Carlos Shaft deepening project, progress lower than expected due to lack of qualified person and incorporation of some redesigns to improve functionality once in operation. Commissioning of the shaft is now expected for the second half of this year.
With mine operations now under better control, we foresee a 2023 as another year of improved results in Fresnillo mine. Moving to Saucito, the mine is well staffed now, and during 2022, we invested to acquire the remaining mine equipment needed to internalize 100% of the mining work required by the labor reform, which will help to decrease rental costs once the equipment is delivered. During last year, we focused also in reviewing our short-term planning processes and parameters, which helped us improve the ore grade by 9.8% to partially offset 14% lower throughput, mainly due to lower productivity of our new personnel. The high-seismic area in Jarillas has been operating without any relevant seismic activity.
After a 2022 with a stabilizing focus, we think that we have a base for an improved production in 2023 also at Saucito, with an emphasis now in efficiency and cost containment. Moving to Juanicipio, we were very pleased to report the connection to the power grid last December, and the commissioning of the process plant has been advancing during the last few weeks, with achievement of nameplate capacity expected for Q3 this year. Silver grade at Juanicipio, sorry, will start at around 200 grams per ton, as we will use lower-grade stockpiles until we fine-tune the operation, the process plant. The grade will increase to about 400 grams per ton as the year advances.
At San Julián, in the veins, in the veins operation, based on tone value, we prioritize extraction of wider veins with higher silver grade, but lower gold content there, the impact in gold production in 2022, with the disseminated ore body operation showing unexpected decrease in production due to lower grades ore in the mining schedule, last year compared to 2021. Construction of the third stage of the tailings dam started last year, and exploration continues with some good results in both the veins and the disseminated ore body operations. At La Ciénega, we were seeing, we are seeing high workforce rotation and low equipment availability from contractors impacting productivity and, ultimately, impacting gold production year-on-year.
In Noche Buena, we found additional tons through our combination drilling program last year, with productivity improving due to shorter hole distances and lower resources required for operations. Gold produced decreased 17% year-on-year as expected in Noche Buena due to the end of life of the operation. Finally, at Herradura, expected lower grades and higher sulfide contents impacted production despite a 9% increase in tons processes resulting from positive ore body reconciliation and the mine gaining productivity by increased truck utilization.
As we still expect inflation, cost pressures, and a strong Mexican peso, all the mines will continue to focus on cost containment initiatives, going from the day-to-day efforts to the investment in the more relevant infrastructure projects to improve cost and efficiency, such as the projects listed there for as examples for each of the mines. With this, I will thank you for your attention and pass now. Voice to Guillermo Gastélum, who will tell us about reserves and resources update and exploration. Thank you.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm really happy to be here to share with you the stories about the resources and reserves of Fresnillo and the developments of the exploration program. Let's get started with the silver. As you know, Fresnillo has one of the largest silver resources base in the world, now standing at 2.2 billion ounces. However, we're posting a 5% decrease in our silver resources when compared to 2021. Resources were hit, in particular by higher costs and higher cut-off grades associated with discussed, and also by depletion and locally by a conservative approach to the process estimation, in particular in some sections at Fresnillo and Saucito. That decrease was partially offset by good exploration results at San Julián and at the Guanajuato project.
Our silver reserves stand at 396 million ounces, 5.6% decrease, due for the same reasons of the resources. Also by depletion of the disseminated deposit at San Julián. That was partly mitigated by the good exploration results at the San Julián vein system. Although we are posting a decrease of 23.7 million ounces, well, that means that our teams at the mines, despite the challenging cost environment, were able to partially replace the reserves after producing more than 15 million ounces of silver. With respect to gold, our resources remain stable. A significant increase at the Guanajuato and an important resource conversion at Snatchokya, in the Centauro Profundo ore bodies in the Herradura district.
Our gold reserves increased 4.4%, mainly due to resource model improvements at Herradura. I will say a few words about some of the projects that may become onstream in future years, some of which were organically generated by the exploration team. Say a few words about Orisyvo, which is a world-class gold deposit in the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. We are advancing at a good pace a number of PFS-level studies. We have acquired some additional land, and we have strengthening community relations programs and engagement also with the government. At the local and state scales, we are having very good acceptance from both the communities and the government of Chihuahua State.
Rodeo is a... Will be a open pit heap leach mine on a disseminated gold deposit. We are completing several studies for hydrological, metallurgy, infrastructure, access to energy, environmental and so forth. We have strengthened our regional local scale community relations program. We are building trust with local people in the region. Guanajuato, you may have heard, is a historic world-class gold and silver district. We have a very intense drilling program in several exploration targets occurring throughout the district with good results over the vein system themselves, also over bulk-mineable deposit occurring at the vein intersections and in the hanging walls. We had a significant increase in both indicated and inferred gold and silver resources in this district.
Finally, Tajitos, that's located in the Herradura corridor in northwestern Mexico, in a place where Fresnillo knows very well how to build and operate open pit heap leach mines. In Tajitos, we had significant progress here at Tajitos. We were able to consolidate some mining concessions and to purchase additional land. As we speak, there is a very intense core and reverse circulation drill program going on, which is aiming at fully delineating the main zone of the resources by the middle of the year, spinning up this project to the PEA and upper levels to bring them onstream also as fast as we can.
Rodeo, Guanajuato and Tajitos, they all have significant exploration potential for gold. We are not only drilling there, we're doing the community relations things as well, which is part of the core of our activities. We are conducting additional metallurgical investigations and preliminary geotechnical work as well. Now, a few words about the full pipe portfolio and the budget allocation that we have for 2023. We are budgeting $175 million for exploration. The focus will continue to be in our operations. That will account for more than 50% of the budget that will be followed by the development and PEA projects I just mentioned, Orisyvo, Rodeo, Guanajuato and Tajitos.
We will continue to explore advanced exploration projects that we have and they already display over 1 million ounces of gold equivalent in resources that will include Pilarica, a silver deposit in Peru. San Juan, which is the vein-hosted gold and silver project front underground mining in central Mexico, and Candameña and Lucerito disseminated gold and silver deposits that are amenable to open-pit mining methods as well. We will invest the smaller amounts of the budget on early exploration projects. We currently have 14 projects in drilling, both in brownfields and greenfield areas, and they are budgeted according to their exploration potential and priority.
Of course, we will continue to be feeding the triangle with field work, very hard field work, doing geological mapping, geochemical sampling in several prospect areas in favorable metal petrol belts of Mexico, Peru, and Chile. As the highlights for 2022 on the right-hand side of your slide, you can see we invested $167 million, almost 20% when compared with 2021. We're getting closer to drilling. We're approaching 1 million meters of drilling over the year. The 89% was focused in advancing either advanced or early brownfield projects near our mines.
We discovered new veins at San Julián, Bonanza, and Ciénega. All the programs, the infill and the step-out drilling programs at all of our mines were progressing well. The rest were dedicated to exploring early-stage projects where we're aiming at bringing them to the open levels of the triangle. Finally, I will mention that over the exploration programs for investment for 2023, $175 million. We continue to focus in the brownfield projects and in the four advanced exploration projects I just mentioned. We will continue with the drilling programs at our mines, focusing on the resource conversion from inferred to indicated, to foster reserved generation.
We will continue to strengthen, performing all the engineering activities related to returning to have proven reserves at all of our operations or for underground operations. Having said this, now I leave the microphone in the hands of Mr. Mario Arreguín , who will tell us everything about the financial performance of Fresnillo plc. Thank you.
Thank you, Guillermo. Can you hear me well?
Yes.
Yes? Over there? Good. Great. If you don't mind, I'll remake here. First of all, good morning. I'm delighted to be here to be able to share our financial numbers, which were just released this morning. As you can see on the first slide that we're going to show, this is basically the income statement. If you look at the different profit levels which are highlighted in yellow, you will see that we were below last year. I guess this was pretty much expected by the market. As a matter of fact, we were better than what the consensus had predicted. At least we're happy about that. Nevertheless, gross profit compared to the previous year was almost 43% below last year. operating profit was 57.5% below last year.
Profit for the period was almost 30% below last year. The EBITDA was below of almost 38% compared to last year. What I would like to do today, this morning, is briefly comment on what I consider to be the main features or the main changes compared to the previous year. I will focus first on adjusted production costs and try to explain to you what was behind that 15% increase compared to last year, how much of this was due to inflation, how much of this was due to the increase of production volumes, and how much of this was due to other operating issues.
The other line item that I would like to focus on is the change in gross profit, that 42% decrease, how much of this was due to change in metal prices, how much of this was due to inflation, how much of this was due to other operational issues. Before I do that, if we can move to the next page, please. Of course, inflation is one of the most discussed topics, and all industries were subject last year to a very high inflation. What we show here in this slide is basically the inflation based on our own basket. In other words, the increase in unit price of each individual item or component of our production costs.
As you can see, in the case of Fresnillo PLC, at a consolidated level, our own inflation was almost 8.4% in dollar terms. What we show here is the impact on each one of the items that conform our production costs. For example, operating materials was one of the most important items in terms of increase in inflation, followed by contractors. Remember, in our case, contractors not only bring in, you know, their labor, but they also bring in their own equipment, their own operating materials. Just wanted to give you an idea of what the inflation was for us. Now, having that in mind, if we can move to the next slide, please.
What we show here is a rainbow where we try to explain the change in the total production cost. The increase is represented by the green bar at the far right. Increase was $191 million. If you look at the first red bar, there we show the impact of inflation on a standalone basis. In other words, if everything else had remained exactly the same, and we only had the increase in unit price of, you know, the things that we consider in our production cost, the increase in production cost would have been of $101.2 million. That 8.4% inflation that I just explained translates into an impact of $101 million.
Now on the following bar, you will see the impact of bringing Juanicipio, the Juanicipio mine into operation. Of course, that operation did not exist in 2021, so obviously our absolute cost of production increased by $85.7 million. We really don't need to worry about this increase because behind it, we had an increase in profit of approximately $99 million. Nothing to worry there. Let me skip to bar number four. Here we show the impact of higher ore volume processed at Fresnillo and San Julián. Again, a good thing, because behind this increase in volume, which impacted production cost by $22 million, behind this increase there was an increase in profit of $90 million.
The bar that I will focus your attention on is the one shown in bar number three, which represents the increase in the use of contractors, the use of operating materials and repairs, the increase in the use of diesel, excluding any inflation effects. This is purely the increase in the use of these items. This is pretty much related to, you know, our mines, our underground mines being deeper and deeper, our open pit mines having longer haulage distances, et cetera. This is the one that we are looking at and trying to compensate with being more efficient. Lastly, a very brief comment on the two blue bars, which were the ones that somehow decreased our production cost.
First, bar number six, we processed at a lower volume at some of our mines, Saucito, Ciénega, and San Julián. Of course, this lower volume decreased our production cost by $47.5 million. Again, behind this decrease, there was also a decrease in our profit levels for approximately $75 million, which is related to this. Lastly, on bar number seven, we show the impact of capitalizing less volume of waste haulaged. In other words, in 2021, 7.3%, a very small percentage of our haulage movement was capitalized. In 2022, we capitalized 28.4% of the total waste material moved.
In other words, had we kept the 7.3% that we had in 2021 capitalized, our cost would have been higher by $53.5 million. If we can move to the next page. Again, what we show here is basically an analysis of the decrease in the gross profit of $400 million. Again, the blue, the green bar at the far right-hand side represents that decrease for $400 million. If you look at the first three red bars on the right-hand side too, those I would say are the main reasons behind that decrease. Starting with lower metal prices, most importantly, the lower silver price, which decreased almost 13% compared to the previous year.
That had a negative impact of $157 million. This was mitigated, if you look at bar number four, by the increase in the price of zinc and slightly the increase in price of gold. On bar number 10, you see the impact of the lower ore grade and the lower recovery rate at Terradura, which basically was the main reason behind the 15% decrease in gold production. Those had a negative impact of $135.7 million. The third most important reason, and I mentioned this when we spoke about production cost, was cost inflation, meaning the increase in unit price of our production cost components. I would say those are the three main reasons behind our decreasing in profit.
If we can now briefly go back to the income statement. What I would like to point out now is, you know, something really unusual, which is the income tax expense line. If you look at it, you will see that that is a positive number. In other words, the profit for the period was larger than the profit before income tax, which is very rare, very unusual. The reason behind this positive income tax is basically based on three factors. Firstly, the inflation that we had in Mexico, measured by the official CPI index, which was 7.91%. Secondly, the revaluation of the Mexican peso, and we measured that using the spot exchange rate at the beginning of the year versus the spot exchange rate at the end of the year.
If you do that, you will see that there was a revaluation of the Mexican peso of almost 6%. The third and last reason has to do with the tax benefit for companies located in the northern border zone. We do have a couple of mines that fall in that particular zone, which is the Herradura mine in Noche Buena operations. In that particular zone, companies are subject to a 20% tax instead of the 30% statutory tax. In terms of VAT, instead of being subject to 16%, it's only subject to 8%. When you put these three factors that I just explained together, that's how you get to the positive $67.4 million in taxes. We don't expect that to happen again.
However, you know, the peso continues to be very, very strong. Right now, it's below 18. At the beginning of the year, it was 19.36 pesos per dollar, and it's currently trading just slightly below 18. We will continue to see that effect this year, I guess, if it remains strong throughout the year. If we can move very briefly to the cash flow statement, please, Gabi. Okay. If you look at the first column at the bottom, you will see that our cash balance at the end of the year was $970 million, which meant a reduction of $266 million compared to the initial balance.
If you take out what we paid out in dividends, you know, we were very close to being net cash neutral. The main source of funds, of course, was the cash generated by the operations on the top line, $743 million, which is lower than compared to last year by almost 39% for the reasons that I explained before. In terms of the main uses, you will see that CapEx was the main use of funds, $582 million, of which $236 million were basically mine developments, and $356 million were, you know, plant and equipment. The other use of funds was dividend payments for $202 million, and income tax and profit sharing for almost $175 million.
Well, those, I believe, were the main highlights regarding our income statement and cash flow statement. Our balance sheet, which is shown on the last page, continues to be very, very strong. If you have any questions on issues that I didn't cover, I'm more than happy to answer those during the Q&A.
Thank you, Mario. Looking ahead for the rest of the year. You will see that we have somehow stable production with the next couple of years. On the silver side, however, I mean, we have some alternatives on 2025 that we are looking into in order to increase production in San Julián mine, also on the Fresnillo mine with the ramp-up that we have achieved so far and the projection we have to that year, as well as in Saucito and Juanicipio. We'll be looking in more detail over the following months in order to achieve that.
Step up in production in 2025. On the gold side, we have the effect of Machihueña going out of reserves. In fact, this is the last year in which the mine will be operating. As you see on the bottom part of the slide, higher contributions of base metals, zinc specifically, and then lead as well, with the addition of Juanicipio in the following years. In terms of CapEx, you will notice that some of the portion of what we were expecting to deploy in 2022 has been transferred to 2023, as we experience some of the supply chain issues with mobile equipment. We transfer some of that CapEx into 2023. We were expecting in 2022 higher CapEx in the range of $680.
Those $90+ million are being transferred to 2023 and the rest of the year 2024 and 2025. In terms of the chart that we usually present for the project delivery, you will see Rodeo as the next projects, growth projects in our portfolio. Rodeo, we're still in discussion with bank access. Rodeo, we are acquiring some of the land in the area. We're strengthening the project with some better metallurgical results. I would like to point out to Tajitos and Guanajuato. Tajitos, as we mentioned in one of the slides, we will finalize the delineation of the ore body very soon in Q2. After, we'll continue with all the process of PEA, pre-feasibility, et cetera. This is an area that we know well, in the neighbor of Herradura in Machihueña.
That's a project that we could advance, we believe that could advance faster probably than the other two that we mentioned before. Guanajuato is an old mining district with good exploration success this year in 2022. We continue exploring with trying to increase the resources and then continue with the process to see how the economy of this project is. I would like to conclude by reiterating our key strengths and priorities, and also some of the challenges of this year. This is what we've shown a robust performance in the period. Of course, emphasize that our mining operations have certainly stabilized, and in the case of Fresnillo, reverted that trend that we've had for the previous two, three years, which is very good.
Saucito as well with the operational issues that we had and resolved in second half of last year. We are in much better position to capitalize on the growth portfolio of projects, prospects and projects that we have in our exploration side as well. We have extensive development mine in front of us, backed by our strength in our operations. With that, I will open up for questions, please. Dan. Yes.
Thanks. I'm Dan from UBS. Couple of questions. First on the production profile you show on page 32. If I look at 2024, there's about a 10 million ounce lower expected production versus your latest guidance at the interim stage. Can you walk us through where that reduction comes from, and perhaps give any steer on the output profile for particularly Fresnillo and Saucito? Because you're adding a whole new mine, yet production's kinda gonna be lower than it is in 2021. That's the first question. Thanks.
In 2020?
2020, 2021, I think you're about 60 million ounces, correct? Group silver production.
You're looking at which page?
2025, sub 60 million ounces. You've added Juanicipio, your production's lower.
Yes. You will realize that in San Julián, the disseminated ore body, we are running out of reserves there. Therefore, Municipio production as it is now does not compensate that lack of tonnage and grade that we have in San Julián. In fact, in 2024, we have a lower production in San Julián, and in 25 as well. As we stated in this report, we continue exploration in San Julián. We have some initial success, something that is not reflected here, amongst some other opportunities as we try to point out in this slide.
Those are related to Fresnillo, in which this year we are increasing, aiming to increase the production. We will continue to with that trend. Also in Guanaceví we're looking at different alternatives as well. We believe we will be in the following months start to be able to give more information in order to increase the production for 2025 on the silver side.
Okay. Essentially stable production of Saucito, Fresnillo, ramp up of Guanaceví, but then depletion of the DOB at the disseminated Albardón.
A higher production in Fresnillo. We believe we can actually.
Better than the guide in 2023?
To 2023.
Yep. Yeah.
higher than 2023. Okay.
Correct. Yes.
Okay. Thanks for that. The second one on cost, can you give us any guidance on your expected trajectory in adjusted production costs for 2023?
Right.
As further question.
Yes. Thank you. We believe that we will continue to have some inflationary pressures. In our budget, we're including a 6.5% increase in average for the, you know, the components of our production costs. However, we do have plans to try to mitigate that adverse effect by being more productive and efficient. I don't know if, Tomás, you would like to comment on those, because the only way to fight inflation is by trying to, you know, be more efficient. We do have in place certain ideas. Hopefully with that we will be able to mitigate, not all, most of that inflation pressure.
Yeah. Thank you, Mario. Yes, of course, in all the mines, we have a day-to-day focus on cost containment. In addition to that, we have specific projects that which impact the cost. For instance, the shaft coming into operations at Fresnillo. It's gonna improve our cost per ton at the mine, will lower haulage cost whenever that comes to light. The pumping system also in Fresnillo that we just commissioned last year, saving us powers. We used to have three estate pumping system compared to this one brand-new, more efficient. That's Fresnillo.
At Saucito, now that we have overcome the challenges of the high-seismic area, that had us, you know, invest in there to stabilize the area, install the requirement, require monitoring equipment and all that. That's has gone, so we're more efficient there. As well, we updated the pumping system in Saucito, so we have a better structure now at the mine. Back to Fresnillo, we are being able to increase the tons mined, which had an impact of course on the efficiencies, right? The on a per ton basis, cost is better because we are able to move more.
At Herradura, the pit redesign, it's a project still, but we think that when we, during the year we'll be, we are testing steeper pit angles that we think could save a good amount of waste to be removed from the pit and that having an impact to cost. Then, also, we got, just got our dual fuel station approved. We will be able to deploy the permits. Natural gas will improve the logistic of, you know, serving the mine with that. A lot of projects here and there. Like Mario said, I mean, it's a tough environment. You know, high inflation, strong peso, but very focused to contain the cost during the year.
Just to complement a little bit on what I just said. You know, inflation in Mexico last year was close to 8%. We're currently negotiating contracts with the union. Usually gives a little bit above inflation of the previous year. You're talking about perhaps an 8.5% increase in wages in MXN terms. Last year, the average exchange rate was 20.1 MXN per dollar. Currently, like I said, it's a little bit below 18. That will translate into a 10% revaluation of the Mexican peso, considering the average exchange rate.
Sure.
If you combine that and take the composed effect, you're talking about a very important increase in terms of wages in dollar terms. That's why I'm saying that inflation overall and 40, you know, 40% of our production cost is based on in pesos. When you combine all of that's how we get to our expected 6.5% inflation for the following year.
Okay.
Hope that gives you a good idea.
Yeah. I mean, just follow up on that slightly. About $1.45 billion was your adjusted production cost metric that you talked to. You've got inflation, cost mitigating measures. You're also bringing on Guanaceví I mean, how should we be thinking about that number, mid-single digit increase, if we add up those moving parts? Is that a reasonable assumption?
That would be reasonable. The plant at the Juanicipio will be fully operational. That will be an additional cost, production cost in absolute terms. Hopefully with the actions that were just described by Thomas, like we said, we will be able to mitigate hopefully most of the inflation effect.
Yeah. cool. I'll let someone else . Thanks.
Thank you, Dan.
Yes, thank you for the presentation and taking my questions. One more question on adjusted production costs. You have clearly alluded to the fact that inflation will be around 6.5% for your cost base, and you're thinking that this will be offset by the initiatives that you're planning. Within that, can you guide us what are you expecting in terms of energy costs, for contractors and materials in those three buckets?
Energy costs. Energy. Well, energy it's difficult to predict because it will depend on the international price of oil, right? What we are considering in terms of diesel for our budget, for example, is an increase of about 7%. Remember, in Mexico we have a subsidy from the government last year, where pretty much they maintained the price of diesel and gasoline pretty much stable when everywhere on this globe, you know, prices had increased quite substantially. Of course, that meant sacrificing resources that the government would have received. That was subsidized, and it did hit the finances of the government in an important manner. This year we're not expecting that subsidy to continue, that's why we're budgeting 7% increase in terms of the price of diesel.
In terms of operating materials, you know, like cyanide, explosives, steel for drilling, steel for milling, tires, reagents, et cetera, what we are budgeting for is close to 7% in dollar terms. Again, that's based on unit prices.
Perfect. Thank you. Can you guide on treatment and refining charges for 2023? Are you expecting it to remain stable or higher once Juanicipio is fully ramped up?
Well, as we mentioned before, I mean, we follow the long-term benchmark treatment charges defined or negotiated by internationally. This last year, I mean, we had an impact on the zinc side, but not on the lead side. We believe with more mining production coming on the stream and probably less of the more demand from the smelters to have stable treatment charges.
Thank you.
Yes.
Hi. Yeah, Seamus from Barclays. I just had a couple of questions to ask. First one was just around the capitalized stripping at Herradura. You mentioned obviously that provided quite a benefit to the P&L in 2022. What can we expect to happen to that in 2023?
That's what we're expecting, that we won't see a difference between what is capitalized. In other words, if we capitalize 20 something % in 2022, we would expect to capitalize again this year the same percentage or around the same percentage.
Okay. Then I just wanted to ask, the 6.5% inflation number, is that using flat currency, so excluding the movement in Peso?
No, that's including a very slight revaluation. You know, when we did the budget back in October, we never saw the peso being so strong, so we only used 0.6% revaluation. It's looking like it's going to be much higher than that. If the peso continues to be at 18, which is substantially below what we budgeted for, that inflation will be higher in dollar terms.
Okay. I just wanted to ask, could you give us a bit of an update on the two projects, Rodeo and Orisyvo, in terms of when we could be at a point that these projects go to the Board for approval?
Yes. In Rodeo, I mean, first we need to define the discussions for land access. As soon as we do that, we expect to do that in the following few months, we should deploy the exploration in order to upgrade the resources to measure and indicate it. Then after, we'll be in a position to do the pre-feasibility and present to the board for approval as we advance the project. Very much, by the end of the year, beginning of next year, I think we'll be in that position.
For Orisyvo, fortunately, the land acquisition is going better. At the same time, we have had better results, metallurgical results with new metallurgical process that we are exploring as well, increasing the recoveries from the sulfide area. That will give us a possibility to mine probably more than the 4 million ounces that we initially thought in an ore body of 8.5 million ounces. That project keeps looking stronger and stronger. I believe we can present that for approval for next year.
Okay. Thank you. Final one I just wanted to ask was around the dividend policy. You know, you're paying dividends based on a P&L profit number, but as you said, cash flow generation, you know, is basically, you know, close to neutral, i.e., slightly negative. You know, is that sustainable? Is that something you're prepared to continue doing?
Yes. We will continue with our dividend policy the way we have stated it in the past, which is paying out 50% of net profit. This year, of course, you know, when I explained that we saw that positive tax number, which increased the pre-tax number, we did not want to take that into consideration because it was a very, you know, special circumstance. We adjusted a bit for that. Still, I believe we paid a dividend which was much higher than what was expected by the market. In general terms, we plan to maintain that policy.
Great. Thank you.
Yes, sir. Go ahead.
Hi, thank you very much for taking my question. Looking forward beyond 2023 and your costs with a sort of a fading production profile, do you expect the projects you're coming online to be of sufficiently lower cost despite your lowering production profile that your all-in cost for silver would be lower than they are now? Given a falling production profile, should we assume a continuing at elevation in costs?
Well, with Juanicipio, I mean, of course, the profile, the cost profile, consolidated for the whole company will be improved significantly and more on the silver side. Right now, total revenues are very much similar gold and silver, and to a total of 84%-85%, and the rest being zinc and lead. With Juanicipio, that profile or consolidated profile cost will be improved. Of course, in the following years, mining, our mine's deeper and with more horizontal distances. Of course, those costs are expected to increase. At the same time, we put infrastructure in place that will compensate that.
Of course, Tomás talked about the putting operation the San Carlos shaft that will be in the second half of this year. That will save in haulage cost this year for the Fresnillo mine. In Saucito, we are also investing in deepening of the Jarillas shaft that will come in a few years from now as well, compensate some of the costs that we go by mining deeper, of course. Tomás mentioned the other initiatives on Herradura. Net, net, I think, we make efforts every year to compensate that higher natural cost. With Juanicipio, we have a step up in terms of the, I mean, a better position in terms of cost. After Rodeo and Orisyvo will also be improved.
Yeah. I would add that, talking of the future, we expect Rodeo to be a low-cost operation as well in a shallow close with the heap leaching pad. That will also help more cost profile.
Tajitos as well. That we are placing a lot of emphasis now.
Yeah.
Both treatments.
Yes.
Good morning. Thanks for the presentation. It's Marina Calero from RBC Capital Markets. I have a question on your Fresnillo mine. Your guidance for development rates to stay at 3,000 meters per month in the foreseeable future. I think your old targets from a couple of years ago were a lot higher, were around close to 4,000. Do you still think those targets are achievable? What would you need to do to get there?
I think that the targets are still achievable. What we are doing, we are studying engineering studies to define the right level of development. As by now, in the short, mid-term, we don't think we need more than that by now until we find what's the optimum, right? Yes, I mean, it's a miner's dream to have your mine full developed. It comes at a cost and we are studying what's that right level. I still think that those levels are achievable.
It's whether it's convenient or not. To invest in that. We will define that during the year for all the mines. We wanna, you know, do more engineering to define, better define what's the right balance between, you know, the meters that we need and the cost, and just have that flexibility at the right cost, I would say.
We are working along the all the lines that we mentioned before with technology as well in order to increase our productivity. A precise or an optimum development level coupled with technology that would give us or improve our productivity, I think it's the racks that's a mix that we are trying to look at. We mentioned before for Fresnillo, the semi-automatic drilling that is giving us more and more tonnages as well, and talking with our union, which has been quite positive on that. Working seven days of the week, which we were not doing before in Fresnillo. Working the Sundays as well is giving us additional tonnage. As a result, I mean, we've been able to turn on that trend that we had before for Fresnillo.
Thank you.
Yeah.
Thanks. Couple of follow-ups, [audio distortion]. First on the reserve and resource statement. Apologies if I've missed it in the details. Are you now including, re-including the silver reserves as proven? They've not been in a proven component of the R&R statement for the last few years. Are they re-included as proven reserves?
Only proven reserves on the Juanicipio mine. The rest of the reserves in the other underground commissions are remaining program category.
Why is that? For a number of years, I guess you've been indicating that you would be able to prove to your auditors that the reserves should be classified as proven, once you provided more data. That was the explanation last year and I think the year after. Why have you not convinced them this year that, it should be included in the proven category?
Well, we have had a lot of progress in the all the on the reserves estimation. Those are significant positive steps. We have completed the cost models from on top-down and then bottom-up. We have hired and trained a team of professionals to introduce more detailed information required to bring this logs to improving category. However, we managed to do that at Juanicipio, so the team knows how to do it, of course. There are still two issues pending that have not been fully presented, I should say. We're having good progress on those.
One will be the detailed geotechnical characteristic of each individual section of the mine, that has to be translated into a cash cost, into a cost model, an after-tax co-cost model, that will take into account each different characteristic of each individual section of the mine. Although we have these models within the process to receive the updated model from our consultant, it has not been fully implemented yet. We're working towards it. The second issue is that would be the reconciliation. We have developed over the year a very good system for reconciliation.
It's being tested right now. It's being proven. However, for reconciliation, you have to have a lot of information from the PD, GS, and so on. Although we have some positive indicators for this new reconciliation, procedure, I should say, it's not again, 100% operational everywhere. We're working on it with that kind of decision with the, with the, engineering team involved in this.
We'll continue to work on that, Dan. Let me tell you that, from the projection and the production expectations, we have advanced substantially despite the fact of not having proven reserves in the underground mines. Before, we were having quite some issues in order to project. We had a lot of variability in the grades. In the last year and a half to two years, I mean, we've worked on all of that. We have been quite precise in order to forecast our tonnages and grades, specifically in Fresnillo.
As a result, I mean, we've been able to hit consistently those grades to the ones that we guided a year ago, for example. That gives us comfort that despite the fact of not having proven reserves in the underground mines, I mean, we do have a geological model stance or speak by itself, and we are continuing to work on proven reserves.
Just one more from my side, [audio distortion]. You commented on the progression of all-in sustaining costs. Obviously some improvement at Juanicipio, some inflation pressures at the other core operations. If I look at Herradura and Ciénega, I mean, Ciénega AISC north of $2,000 an ounce, Herradura your core gold mine at grades from $1,500. What assumptions are you using for impairment testing or your auditors? Are these assets at risk of being impaired? I can't really see how you can generate huge amount of NPV with those sort of all-in sustaining costs improving. Would you consider closing Ciénega if you can't improve the costs? 'Cause it must be burning cash at this point. You mentioned something.
Yes. In terms of the impairment, what we are using of course is the long-term mine plan that is provided to us by the operations and estimation of the costs based on the efficiencies that we expect to get. That was taken into consideration in our models, and that's what we showed our auditors. We have no impairments there. In terms of closing down a mine, hopefully we won't get to that. If it does come to that, we will definitely consider it. Hopefully with the mine plan and the efficiencies, Ciénega will continue to, you know, generate positive cash flow.
I want to add to that we are looking specifically at Ciénega, you know, this year. We will evaluate different ways to mine, to reduce cost and look at the future of the mine. This year... Last year wasn't a good year. Still we have an ore body there, we'll look through the year on how can we mine it more efficiently. Before anything else, right? Hopefully we will not get to that point of closing the mine.
One issue that we have right now specifically in Ciénega is the large investment that we've done for the tailings storage facility. I mean, it's the one that put some stress in terms of covering that investment. In the following years, I mean, now with that tailings storage facility in place and operational, I mean, we have now the six years of reserves. Of course, Ciénega has further exploration potential, and we have those six years in front of us in order to achieve what Tomás is looking at to more detail, how to make that operation more efficient. We are confident that we'll continue to generate good cash flows in the following years in Ciénega.
Thanks.
Yeah. Kieron from Panmure. I'm just looking at Juanicipio, and given the exploration potential of that asset, and obviously the footprint, the plant, et cetera like that. The fact you only own 56%, how do you get to monetize, A, the exploration potential? Because you've only explored, what, 5% of the land package. Obviously the footprint implies that there are expansion potentials even though you haven't actually fully ramped up the operation yet. How do you get to really monetize that asset, whereas the other assets in the portfolio seem to be underperform?
Yes, of course, when we compare what we can do out of Juanicipio and what Juanicipio will represent to the company. A new mine, of course, better grades as we had Saucito from years ago. Of course, we can see what represent to the mine. We do have exploration potential there that we are focusing on. Initially at depth on the same Valle Cienegas vein. We also have some additional targets. Now, we have achieved the milestone of getting that asset operational. We will go into further explore the potential that we have at Juanicipio. It just makes sense, initially at depth because it's a continuation of that same vein. We have very good, stable and continuous vein at depth as well.
Also, as I mentioned, some other targets in the area. At the same time, not to have all the emphasis on what the assets can do for our company, we do have Fresnillo making it more and more efficient. You have seen the profile and how the contribution of Fresnillo is being reflected in the results two years ago to what we have now. That's another asset that we will continue on making more and more efficient.
Saucito as well, we have good size resources there. In order to continue improving or translating those resources into reserves will give us a good mine life in front of us and make that operation efficient. The new Pyrites, the common stream, and also Herradura as well. We have a good mix. Of course, every time we have a new operation, that is reflected in a better position cost-wise in production in our company as well.
[audio distortion]
Just on the 2025 silver production. You obviously mentioned the potential additional production related to initiatives. Just on that, if you do proceed with those and deliver those, would that imply any upside risk to CapEx for 2024 or 2025?
For what we are reflecting as silver production or just in general?
For that potential additional production to deliver that, would that require some additional CapEx?
Okay
... beyond?
Talking about San Julián. What we do have is some additional tonnage there. However, it's not of the same quality in terms of grade to the one that we are mining now. It would require only some efficiency measures so that we can translate that not economic ore into economic. That would not require. I mean, it's more efficiency measure more than investment. The additional exploration potential that we have in San Julián would require some development that we are doing, currently doing right now. I think we will hit by the end of this year. Probably that ore body that is being explored right now. This an investment that we are doing. It's only mining works and then the preparation of that ore body if we prove to be economic.
We will have it ready for 2025. That's another alternative that we're looking at. Fresnillo, it will just require the development that we are doing along with the current mining plan, and continue making that more efficient in order to bring those additional ounces for 2025. What else? I think those [audio distortion] There's no large investment to bring those alternatives into stream.
Thank you. Maybe just one last one. Could you just talk a little bit about the pathway to going from 36% of electricity from renewables up to 75 by 2030?
Yes. We do have the... I mean, the group that we belong to in the end, Grupo BAL, has another company that produces wind energy. We do have that wind energy in order to supply not even 75, but even a larger percentage of our needs. It's only the administrative process that we have to accomplish with the current energy regulator in Mexico in order to be able to include some of our mines into that eolic source. I mean, the energy is already being produced, the eolic. It's just the administrative process within the energy reform that we have to accomplish.
Thank you.
Just one follow-up on Saucito. Are there any bottlenecks to achieve nameplate capacity in Q2? What is the production profile looks like for next three years for that particular mine?
[audio distortion] Bottlenecks for Saucito, I mean, we are expecting some mining equipment. Not a bottleneck, but we're still expecting some mining equipment, trucks, a couple of trucks during the year. That's it. Other than that, just bringing the finishing the commissioning of the plant and starting the ramp-up. We do not have any particular bottleneck, other than, like I said, finishing the commissioning of the plant and ramping up. Which is going well. We have been working on that for the last month or so. No major findings in the commissioning, so we should be fine.
Nameplate capacity, 4,000 tons per day.
Yeah. Of course, as we always do, and it's one more of our pillars, I mean, it's trying to optimize or to create better value out of the investments that we do. As we did in Saucito, we will analyze if we can go above that capacity with the current infrastructure that we have there. Okay. Are there any questions over there? Okay. If there are no more questions, we thank you for being here. Any follow-ups, I think Gabby and Mark are always here. Yes. Thank you very much. Nice to seeing you.
Thank you.
Thank you.