Hello, and welcome to the MJ Gleeson trading update call. My name is Saskia, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Today's call is being recorded, and for the duration, your lines will be on listen only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you will be connected to an operator. I will now hand you over to Graham Prothero, CEO, and Stefan Allanson, CFO, to begin today's conference. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Saskia, and morning, everybody. This is Graham Prothero, CEO of MJ Gleeson plc. You'll forgive me if I'm a little hoarse this morning. I'm joined, as ever, by CFO Stefan Allanson. You can't see us, but Stefan is looking resplendent this morning in his England shirt. Let me quickly summarize this morning's trading update, and the news regarding our first partnership agreement, and then we'll be pleased to take your questions. Overall, we're pleased with a robust performance in still quite challenging markets. Gleeson Homes completed the sale of 1,772 new homes during the period, up 2.8% on last year, and we expect the division to report an operating profit of circa GBP 30 million, which is ahead of market expectations.
As a result of our strong focus on quality, we were pleased to achieve five-star recommendation status in all six of our operating regions. You'll have also seen that we hold a forward order book of 559 plots. That's a lower number than last year, but actually a higher proportion of that was for open market sales. Despite continuing challenges in the planning system, Gleeson Land was pleased to complete the sale of four sites, although owing to the timing of the general election, one significant disposal has been pushed out of the year. Frustratingly, therefore, Gleeson Land is expected to report an operating profit of circa GBP 2 million.
Pleasingly, however, we finished the period with net cash of some GBP 12.9 million, which compares with just GBP 5.2 million last year. So all in all, we anticipate reporting results for the year that are broadly in line with market expectations. Separately, we're delighted to announce that we've now entered our first partnership agreement, and we're very excited about the additional partnerships we expect to announce over the coming months. We'll host a full briefing on Gleeson Partnerships in due course. And looking ahead, we were pleased with the comments made by the Chancellor in her first speech. The measures she announced are essential if we're to get close to delivering the number of new homes this country needs, and we're encouraged by the determination we've seen since the election to get things done.
Against this backdrop, we're even more confident of delivering on Gleeson's medium-term objectives. In summary, we expect demand for our affordable new homes to strengthen throughout FY 25, with growth accelerating into FY 26. Thank you, and Stefan and I will now be pleased to take your questions.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question or make a contribution on today's call, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. That is star one for your questions today. And first up, we have Aynsley Lammin from Investec. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Morning, Graham and Stefan. Three from me, I think. Just firstly, wonder if you'd give a bit more color around the partnerships deal that you expect? You've signed the agreement, and what the pipeline looks like, just in terms of, you know, product mix, type of sites and, maybe, you know, the cash profile you'd expect from some of those deals going forward? And then secondly, just on the net cash, obviously quite a bit better than we expected. What were the key drivers around that? And I guess just on Gleeson Land, you know, the confidence that that significant land sale completes in FY 2025. Obviously, it didn't manage to do it previous financial year, but, you know, confident that that completes soon. Thanks.
Morning, Aynsley. Thanks for that. So I'll take the 1st and 3rd, and I'll pass over to Stefan to talk to you about cash. So, perhaps I'll start with your third question, Gleeson Land, just to deal with that. So, yes, I mean, the challenge that you, what you've seen, as you know, Gleeson Land operates in the sort of green fields of Surrey and Sussex, which is where they're excellent at obtaining planning, and those are the very high value areas. But the problem is, against the febrile political environment in an election year, they're particularly subject to planning gains, as it were.
Yeah, we did see at least one site that was kind of specific victim of those gains. And so that's been bumped out of the year. The reality is, it's ready to go, has full recommendation, but we don't yet have planning on that site. So, we would hope that we will be able to complete that in this year. But only just to give you the context on that, it was bumped from seven successive planning committees. You tell me that that's not political. So, yes, but as I say, as we go into the new year, we have, I think seven sites we're planning, Stefan?
We would be confident of returning to a more normal performance in FY 25. The partnerships deal, we're not actually announcing the details of that this morning, Aynsley, as you know. We will put that into a sort of more comprehensive update sometime, hopefully during the summer. Very pleased with that transaction. It's on a site that we have owned for a while. But it's the key features of this. What's delighted me is this was a site that was challenging for us because required, it's the largest site, but required significant reprofiling and remediation.
And it's the partnerships deal that's enabled us to get that site going in a situation where we might have otherwise been reticent to commit, if it was pure open market sales. But because of the deal that we've been able to sign with a major blue chip housing association, the Tonka toys are on site, and we're reprofiling and looking forward to seeing the units going up during the year. So, fantastic, and exactly the sort of partnership deal that we want to do, which is both valuable to the business in itself, and also enhances our, obviously our core open market business. Stefan, did you want to
Cash.
Talk about cash?
Yes. So, end of the year with a, I think a very healthy cash balance. Was a little higher than I think, a number of people were expecting. A couple of reasons for that. So our control of working capital on the Gleeson Homes sites has been, strong, but also we did, acquire and open, a fewer sites than we had expected. So where I'd be guiding cash, going forward is, to expect that we end the year with a, with a cash surplus, perhaps in the single-digit GBP millions.
Thanks, Rat.
Thanks, Aynsley.
Thank you. Our next question now comes from Sam Cullen from Peel Hunt. Please go ahead.
Hi, morning, guys. Just two questions from me, really. The first one being on price, and what you can tell us around kind of pricing trends and the delta between price and build costs, and how sales rates kind of flow into that? The usual sort of question on that one, on the homes business. Then the second one, really, on the land business, obviously outlined kind of the challenges you've had over the last couple of years in that business. Looking forward with a bit more kind of positivity, maybe in a constructive backdrop, kind of politically, what scope do you see for that business to kind of increase and improve its cadence of deals over the medium term?
Okay. Yeah, morning, Sam. Thank you. So just on your homes question, it very, very interesting, actually. So I think ASP will be there or thereabouts, the same as last year, about. I think it's about GBP .3, I think GBP 185, GBP .8 or GBP .9 or something, as opposed to GBP 186.1 or GBP .2. That close. But very interesting shift in there. So we did see, so pricing held up well. In fact, if you like, at the gross level, we're kind of 4 or 5% improvement in selling prices. But then we've given a lot of that back because incentives have increased, and in fact, extras have come off a little bit.
As Stefan rightly pointed out to me last night, that's because we're giving some of that away. So the net pricing that we've achieved is up about 1.5% in actual pricing levels. But then the mix has brought the average selling price down a little bit. So I think actually there's good news in there. You know, we're continuing to see that dynamic that we are conscientiously pushing prices where we can, and the market is taking that. It's not as if there's absolutely no sign of a challenge or anything like capitulation in selling prices. So that's kind of the story on pricing.
And on build costs, yeah, I mean, the reality, I think we and we're still bottoming this, because as you can imagine, number of moving parts. I'm not gonna give you a number this morning, because we're still working that through. Broadly flat, I would say, is the position on our building costs. But if you take materials, a lot of areas you'll be aware of which are still pushing up, but we're working hard, as I think I told you in February or March, on our procurement deals, and so we're sort of holding back. We're not being impacted by all of those increases that commercial team are doing a great job in that regard.
And then subcontractors, as always, trying to rebuild their margins into any sign of strength. So not a clear pattern, but broadly flat, broadly flat, I suspect, when we've actually bottomed out the numbers. But we will give you chapter and verse on that in September, when we're happy with the arithmetic. And on Gleeson Land, yeah, I mean, it's interesting, and it's been the perpetual challenge for that business, and that it is a that it's lumpy in the way that it brings forward its profits, and timing is just something. I mean, trying to time it into 6-month and 12-month chunks is nigh on impossible.
We are very, we're confident in the portfolio we have in that business. Something like 70 sites, just under 17,000 homes. As I say, we've got planning permission on several of those sites, and several more lined up, which hopefully will benefit both with the into, as I say, we're moving on from the election year, and also more generally, with a new government that we're pleased to see is promising to deliver on its commitment to make planning more predictable, and more effective, I suppose, to more efficient. We'll see how that plays out. I suppose what I'd also say is, we're kind of taking...
I mean, Guy, since he's taken on that business, has really stepped back, and looked at how do we build a portfolio that is more predictable? Now, the reality, Sam, as you know, is that we can't deliver on—we can't sort of wave a magic wand and deliver on a different portfolio in 12 months. But what I would say is, the team is in great shape. The structure of the team, which we did talk to you a little bit about in March, is bedding down really well. The regional focus, the presence in each of the three areas, Southern, Western and Central, and that's really starting to work.
We brought in five excellent sites during the year, and there are more about to drop into that portfolio. So the position today, I would say, is in a... I'm much happier with it than I was when I, you know, first arrived. I think Guy feels exactly the same. I'm not gonna promise that that's gonna, you know, we're gonna go straight to a flat level of delivery from 2025 and 2026 onwards, but for sure, 2025 will be stronger than 2024, and hopefully we'll start to see we'll start to achieve on that. And then you'll see us get back to a steadier level of delivery.
Great. Thank you.
Thanks, Sam.
Thank you. Thank you. Up next, we have Alastair Stewart from Progressive Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Morning, Graham and Stefan. A couple of questions on the land side. You know, can you put a bit more color on the underlying demand for land? At least a couple of the house builders recently have signaled that they're back in the land market quite significantly. So, you know, a bit of color there, as I say. And second question was on the deferred sites, unless I misheard you earlier, Graham, you said, "Tell me that that's not political." Again, could you provide a little bit of color, obviously discreetly? You know, but that area, or that, those sort of counties have been in the past notoriously, you know, obfuscating in terms of planning.
Anything you can point us towards?
Yeah, well, I'm mindful, Alastair, we're not in the pub over a pint, so I will be careful what I say. But, look, let's-
Happy to meet you in the pub for a pint, to discuss it in more detail.
So, your first question, Alastair, on the land market, I mean, most people on the call would... Who know me, know that I think it never really went away, and talk of the death of the land market was greatly exaggerated. But, for sure, it's back. People are replenishing short-term land banks very strongly. So we're seeing, for the sites we're bringing to market, we are seeing very strong interest and very good pricing. That's absolutely clear. I'm seeing that in homes as well, so it's not all good news, but we are bidding and winning our fair share, so...
But the land market nationally is back, and of course, you see that, we see that exponentially, again, for the very high value areas where Gleeson Land operates. And so color on the deferred sites, I mean, I've probably said as much as I should, Alastair, but if you just take that stat, a particular site I have in mind, was scheduled for committee in December, with full officer recommendation, and has issues have appeared, a couple of weeks before each successive planning committee for seven months. So, if...
I could, as I say, I could probably be a little more cynical than that, but it seems to me that there's a theme, which is not necessarily to do with the technicalities of planning. And you know what the situation is. I mean, even at appeal, we've lost one or two sites during the year, or on landscape grounds. Well, how do you, you know, the decision on something like that is so subjective that I just have to say, in another year, we may well have, we may well not have lost those sites on landscape grounds.
It remains the fact that, as you know, planning is an intensely political process, and in an election year, particularly in those high value areas where and with significant predominance of Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs, particularly again, with a lot of those looking over their shoulder at small majorities, it's a very difficult environment.
Great. All right, thanks very much!
Thank you. And from Stefan, we have Charlie Campbell, with our next question. Please go ahead.
Morning. Yeah, just questions on one point, really, but this is a fairly open-ended question. Just to think about sort of first time buyers and what sort of behaviors you're seeing from them. Are they sort of back now that mortgage rates are stable, or do you think that they're probably waiting for mortgage rates to come down a bit further? Yeah, just wondering what you're seeing on the ground from first time buyers really.
Yeah. Morning, Charlie. Welcome in your new kit. So I'll get Stefan just to talk to you about some proportions and things, but I mean, broadly, I think the, you know, the first time buyer is a good bellwether, obviously, for the market. And what we're seeing is, look, they are there, they can afford our homes, and it really is about, it really is that confidence point, which, you know, I put down to the whole interest rate point around deferred expectations of reductions, which gets the press talking negatively. But they're there, and they can afford the homes, but Stefan, do you want to-
Yeah. Thank you, Graham. Hi, hi, Charlie. So, you'll remember, up until a couple of years ago, maybe 80% of our buyers were first time buyers. We were very focused on that part of the market. That started to change, and we, a year ago, a year and a half ago, we started to widen our marketing to be less selective, if you like, and to attract the full range of buyers, whether they be young, low income first time buyers, or older retirees, downsizers, and also investors. What we saw, up until about six months ago, is first time buyers had fallen to about, had reduced to about 40% of those reserving a Gleeson home. That has since recovered, and it's now back at about 50%, maybe just over 50%.
Where it goes from here, difficult to judge. I suspect as a bit of confidence returns and mortgage rates reduce, it might improve a little. I don't think we're gonna see it go back to 80%, though. One thing I would touch on is, and forgive me for, beating the drum on this a little bit, but affordability is not the issue. And I'm just looking at my notes here, I reminded myself last night, what does it cost to buy a two-bedroom Gleeson home? Well, the average cost is GBP 155,000. Highly affordable for a couple, working full-time, earning the national living wage. If they were to rent the equivalent in the south of England or the Midlands, it would cost them GBP 200 a week to rent.
To buy a Gleeson home costing GBP 155,000 , they can get a five-year fixed now, at less than 5%, and that will cost them about GBP 155 a week, compared to GBP 200 a week renting. So you can see, affordability is not really the issue. And of course, our customers, typically, they earn over time, and they can save and come to us with a healthy deposit. Forgive me, Charlie, for answering a slightly wider question than you asked, but the opportunity was there.
Well, well taken. Thank you very much.
Mm-hmm.
Thank you. As a brief reminder, ladies and gentlemen, that is star one for your questions today. And up next, we have Greg Poulton from Singer Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Yeah, morning, guys. Just two from me, please. Could you talk a bit about the trend in reservation rates across the second half, and where you exited H2, please? And then could you also give a bit of color on the expected profile of land sales in H1 versus H2 in the coming year, please?
Hi, Greg. Yeah, thank you. So, yeah, it was really interesting, that trend in res rates across the last six months. So as you see, we've averaged out and on open market GBP 1.5. The market did come out of the blocks quickly through January, February, and I think I was fairly upbeat when I stood up in front of everybody in, whenever it was, February or March. And it seemed to me that it was, you know, things were going to continue to improve slowly but steadily. The reality is, things cooled off a bit in April.
I think that is pretty much foursquare with the, if you recall, the Banks realized that they had cut rates to cut mortgage rates too quickly, and so they went into reverse, several of them, and put rates back up. Only a little bit, but of course, then you've got the raft of negative headlines. So then it's all become about, it's thrown the spotlight back on, well, when is the Bank going to cut? And so every month we get this drumbeat of, are they gonna cut? Are they? Oh, they haven't cut again. And that does nothing, that just undermines confidence. And so what you saw was a cooling off in April? I think it's firmed up a bit again. In fact, we've...
So we've ended, if you looked at the last few weeks, we've been at the, at and around, a bit above, a bit below, the GBP 0.5 that we've actually averaged out for the whole of the, of that second half. So, yeah, I think it goes very much with consumer confidence. Personally, I don't believe the talk of the election affects it at all. But I do believe that if we get this restoration of confidence, that we...
Seems to be building amongst both businesses post the election, and consumer confidence also seems to be improving, with just maybe that last piece of the jigsaw, which would be the interest rate cut. I think things will stabilize, and you'll see a good market through the coming year. But I don't think you'll see it pick up very much until we do get that positive news around the interest rates. And it's the confidence piece rather than the rate itself, you know? That's always my view. The expected profile of land sales, Greg, I wish I had a crystal ball.
I am in the lap of planning committees all over the Southeast, and if I say too much more this morning, I'll be in danger of upsetting all of them, so I won't. But the reality, what we do have is, as I say, we've got seven sites with planning. We've got a good number lined up behind them, and the good thing is, coming back to what I said just now, we do have very strong interest in anything that we have available, at very strong, with, you know, very competitive pricing.
But you know, calling the actual date of a transaction is a little bit like a fairground game, so I'm not gonna predict that this morning.
Yeah. Understood. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Greg.
Thank you. As a final reminder, that is star one for your questions. We will pause for a brief moment. There appears to be no further questions at this time, so I'd like to hand the call back over to you, Graham, for any additional or closing remarks.
Thanks very much. Well, just to, thanks everybody for your time this morning. And, yeah, we'll look forward to, updating you, as I say, on, on partnerships, sometime, over the summer, and of course, in, we'll, we'll look forward to seeing you in September. And meantime, let's hope, we all have a good evening on Sunday. Thanks very much, everyone.
Cheers.
Thank you for joining today's call, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.