Goodness me, you're prompt! That's brilliant. Well done. Thank you very much, everybody, for coming along this morning, and welcome to our annual results presentation. Great to see you. As ever, we've got an enormous amount to get through, so let's get straight into it. And as you will have seen, we announced earlier today a fully underwritten rights issue to take advantage of what we see as an exciting market opportunity to accelerate our growth. So in a minute, I'll explain why we think our timing is right to be buying and not selling. I'll give you an overview of the compelling investment opportunities we're working on, explain how this rights issue fits with our established raise-and-return strategy, and how it will help us deliver long-term income and value growth.
Nick will then provide more detail on the capital raise, look at the full-year results, and give you an update on all of our Flex operations before I summarize our development activities and finish with our outlook. We'll then, of course, open it up to you, and I'll have the full team on hand to help answer any questions that you have, and I think there's a website on the page for those not here. So turning first then to the key messages from our results, and this has been another strong operational performance, with more excellent leasing as customers seek out the best spaces in the face of an increasingly severe shortage. We signed GBP 22.5 million at a 9.1% premium to March 2023 ERVs, and that's the highest beat for 12 years, with offices the outstanding performer at 11.9% ahead.
We have another GBP 4.8 million under offer today at a 4% premium to the March 2024 ERV. Meanwhile, our rental values were up 3.8% over the year, 5.2% across our Fully Managed spaces, and 5.8% across our long-dated assets, and that's in the top half of our November 2023 forecast range. Now, we leased less than last year because we had less vacant space, and today, we are effectively fully let with our vacancy rate at only 1.3%. Our Flex growth remains on target. We added more than 100,000 sq ft during the year, taking us over 500,000 sq ft. Our customer-centric approach has delivered another industry-leading Net Promoter Score, or NPS, and our retention rate remains high at 83%.
We started two new HQ developments into a supply drought, set to deliver attractive returns of an average 21% profit on cost and an ungeared IRR of 13%, meaning we now have three schemes on site covering 500,000 sq ft. We've been a net buyer of new opportunities for the first time since 2013, as we've unearthed value triggered by higher rates. That's GBP 152 million bought since March 2023 at an average discount to replacement cost of a full 42%. Not surprisingly, those same higher rates have forced yields up and pushed our property valuations down 12.1% over the year, but at a much reduced rate in the second half of 2.4%.
Consequently, NAV was down to 624 pence per share, in line with consensus, and while rent roll was up, higher interest costs pushed earnings down to GBP 17.9 million. LTV stood within our target range at 32.6%, and our balance sheet remains strong. As you know, we watch conditions in our markets very closely. You'll remember at our interims in November, we talked about the tighter monetary environment triggering the return of the cycle. And six months later, we think these macroeconomic changes are delivering us an attractive market opportunity. Central London offices are now trading near 2009 real capital values as investment markets have been heavily disrupted. We know that the severe supply shortage of quality space will drive real rental growth, and we've identified an increasing pipeline of accretive opportunities today at around GBP 1.4 billion.
So we have this morning launched a fully underwritten GBP 350 million rights issue to enable us to take full advantage. We're targeting attractive prospective returns and helping the group to deliver more than 10% per annum based on prudent assumptions and before any yield compression. We think we're well-positioned to deliver with our deeply experienced team. The three EDs alone have more than 92 years of London real estate investing and developing between them, and supported, of course, by our best-in-class operational teams. Before we look at the GBP 350 million capital raise to accelerate our growth, a quick word on our clear strategy, which has delivered a long and successful track record of contracyclical investment and divestment. You'll remember the main pillars set out on the left. We remain strong believers in London.
Its GVA is expected to outperform the wider UK, as it has for many years, and its current business activity, PMI, is both positive and well ahead of the UK overall. Our model is built on repositioning properties, both HQ and Flex, to create the best spaces, providing for customers' changing needs, and we've delivered 2.4 million sq ft since 2009, generating an average 22% profit on cost. And today, we're creating new returns through our Flex operations, with big ambitions to grow from here. We'll always put customers first. Our massive NPS beat shows it works, and our focus on sustainability remains an imperative as we lead through our circular economy innovations. We'll always run low leverage, and we'll always maintain discipline in our capital management, matching risk to the cycle, raising and returning equity in tune with accretive investment and divestment opportunities.
So as you can see from the chart at the bottom, we raised a total of GBP 304 million in weaker markets, allowing us to buy well in the early years of the last cycle, investing GBP 1.6 billion, delivering business plans before making GBP 3.2 billion of profitable sales in much stronger markets, and returning GBP 616 million of excess capital back to shareholders, and in the process, generating strong returns. And as you can see on the right of the chart, real capital values, as shown by the gray line, have fallen materially over the past years and are now, we believe, at or around the market trough. As a result, we've turned net buyer once more, as shown by the purple bar above the line for the first time since 2013.
Of course, having completed our asset sales in much stronger markets, we will return to disposals once investment markets recover. Let's turn then and look at this opportunity in more detail and answer the question: Why raise now? Well, the first reason is that investment markets are heavily disrupted, following both a significant yield and therefore value correction. In fact, as you can see, top left, real capital values are now pretty much in line with 2009 values, down some 58% since the 2016 peak. Even in Mayfair and St James's, shown top right, real values per foot are almost 40% down. You can see why, bottom left, as yields have corrected aggressively in the face of rising interest rates.
All of this has, not surprisingly, fed into the investment market, shown bottom right, where turnover for the past 12 months was below 2009 levels and some 68% down on the post-COVID peak in 2022. Plus, shown on the table, equity looking to buy is way down from a peak of GBP 41 billion in 2021 to stand at GBP 19 billion today. Meanwhile, however, the opportunity in central London occupational markets continues to grow, and we think best rents are set to rise strongly. Shown top left, while takeup is in line with the long-term average, both space under offer and active demand from companies looking to move in the next 12 months are up, particularly demand. And many of these businesses will struggle to find the space they need.
As you can see, top right, the West End prime vacancy is only 1.1%. Even the average West End rate is 4.7%, lower than all other principal European cities and less than one-third the rate in Manhattan. We also know that the supply side is not going to loosen up anytime soon. Bottom left, you can see our projections, shown by the bars, with CBRE's estimate of the total that could be built, shown by the diamonds. And notice that for 2025 and 2026, they've moved dramatically in our direction since the November 2023 survey. And with planning as difficult as we have ever seen it, we think only 3 million sq ft of speculative space will be delivered each year over the next four years, against a new space take-up average of 4.9 million sq ft per annum.
So to meet that demand, we need to build 60+% more new space than we are every year, and there is literally no chance of that happening. Which, of course, means that rents will continue to rise in prime spaces, as shown on the right, and we think, given the demand-supply imbalance I talked about earlier, they'll rise by more than Savills are suggesting here. Either way, these conditions play to our positioning with our high West End weighting and 93% of our properties near the Elizabeth line. And remember, central London rents remain structurally affordable at only 5%-10% of the average London business's salary costs, down from circa 40% in 1974. So bringing these market thoughts together, we think the timing is right to capture this opportunity.
For rents on the left, conditions have strengthened since November, as you can see from our traffic lights, and for our own portfolio shown at the bottom, we delivered rental value growth in the top half of our forecast for last year and have upgraded our guidance for the year to March 2025. Offices overall up between 4%-6%, with prime 5%-10%. Retail rents will also be up by between 1% and 5%, meaning the portfolio overall should see growth of between 3% and 6%. For yields shown on the right, the weight of money looking to buy is now the only red. But as you can see at the bottom, with yields having stabilized and the expectation that interest rates will fall later this year, we think the prospect for yield compression has increased, particularly for the best assets.
So within the context of disrupted investment markets and positive leasing market dynamics, let's turn and look at some of the compelling acquisition opportunities we've identified, and starting with a quick reminder of what it is we're looking for. For Flex, shown on the left, our criteria are well-defined and focused on five main central clusters around our existing holdings. 30-60,000 sq ft buildings with divisible floor plates to create units of 2,000-6,000 sq ft, with the potential for a great ground floor entrance experience. And more from Nick in a minute, but we're targeting a minimum 6% stabilized yield with big cash flow and net premium beats to a traditional Ready to Fit model. For HQ, no change to our tried and our tested formula.
Looking for time-expired buildings in great locations, where we can add square footage and buying off discounts to replacement costs and totally repricing rents. Here we're targeting big development yield premia and healthy ungeared IRRs. As we scour the market across central London, our conviction is growing on the opportunity opening up. Bottom left, vendors' aspirations are softening. In the 12 months to May 2023, only 6% of the deals that we tracked traded at prices representing fair value, in our view. Jump forward to the 12 months just ended, and 6% has grown to 31%. 5 deals in total, and we bought 4 of them. GBP 152 million at an average of a 42% discount to replacement costs.
As we think about what next, you can see bottom right that there has been a sharp increase over the past year in the targets we have under review. Now GBP 1.4 billion, 96% off market and equally split between HQ and Flex. So let's look at these opportunities in a bit more detail, and in the table, top left, we've broken them down into an A list, a B list, and a watchlist. A's are opportunities where we have good information and a reasonable chance of securing a deal at a sensible price, with Bs being less clear at this stage and the watchlist being assets we're tracking closely, and to which we've already applied a quality and a strategy fit filter. Taking the As and the Bs together, we're working on 27 deals with a face value of about GBP 1.4 billion before CapEx.
Eight are As, which, including CapEx, total some GBP 735 million, to which we've then applied a deal probability weighting to give GBP 350 million. Include the weighted Bs, and we're at more than GBP 600 million, all in line with the acquisition criteria that I outlined earlier. And here you can see the breakdown of where these opportunities lie. 74% in the West End and Midtown, evenly split between HQ and Flex across the 27, although in the West End, 71% are Flex versus only 5% in the City. And digging into the As a bit further, within the GBP 350 million are three likely near-term acquisitions. GBP 250 million face value, including CapEx, or around GBP 170 million probability weighted.
Majority in the West End, all of them off market, all adjacent to existing holdings, and all Flex. Of these three, last month, we exchanged contracts to buy The Courtyard on Tottenham Court Road, shown here as a fantastic Flex opportunity in one of our key West End clusters. As part of a property swap with the City of London Corporation, we bought The Courtyard for GBP 28.6 million, or GBP 462 per sq ft, and an almost 70% discount to replacement cost. We sold 95-96 New Bond Street, a standalone period retail and office building, for GBP 18.2 million, or more than GBP 2,000 per sq ft and in line with book value.
Having entered into a new 155-year head lease with the City at a peppercorn, our plan is to invest circa GBP 62 million to convert the existing sustainability stranded buildings into a best-in-class, fully amenitized Flex campus, fronting onto the pedestrianized and landscaped Alfred Place and opposite our existing holdings on the street. Our underwriting is conservative, but even so, we'll deliver attractive returns with a development yield substantially ahead of our required hurdle. We've also recently acquired our freehold Soho Square site, adding a substantial opportunity to our HQ development pipeline.... bought off market for GBP 70 million at a 27% discount to replacement cost. We will demolish most of the existing time-expired buildings and build back circa 100,000 sq ft via the inherited planning permission, which we are in the process of improving.
CapEx of circa GBP 106 million will deliver a best-in-class office and retail building, with an expected start in Q1 2025, and aiming to beat our underwrite of a 21% profit on cost, again, conservatively based on current rents and yields. So plenty of opportunity, both organic and new business, for us to dig into with supportive market dynamics. And over now to Nick to hear more about the rights issue.
Thank you, Toby, and good morning, everyone. So as you've heard, we've identified an attractive new opportunity set, and the rights issue will allow us to deliver further long-term value and income growth, including an additional GBP 55 million of near-term development surpluses to give total surpluses of GBP 175 million, as we grow our well-timed CapEx program and deliver more than 800,000 sq ft of prime, sustainable space into a supply-starved market. These surpluses include GBP 69 million from the schemes that we were committed to back in November. Since then, we've committed to three further schemes, including our HQ project at Minerva House and two Flex schemes, which will together add GBP 51 million of surpluses.
With today's rights issue, we expect to commit GBP 168 million of further CapEx on our two recent West End acquisitions, which should conservatively deliver another GBP 55 million of surpluses. This gives a total near-term CapEx program of GBP 666 million, with total expected surpluses of GBP 175 million, and that's before factoring in any further schemes. You'll find the usual scheme-by-scheme CapEx timing profiles in the appendices. The rights issue will also accelerate NOI growth to more than GBP 75 million from our Fully Managed Flex offer. Today, our committed, Fully Managed spaces generate GBP 9 million of annualized NOI, which will rise to GBP 27 million once all these spaces are delivered and customer occupancy has stabilized.
Our existing organic pipeline of further upcoming conversions will add GBP 10 million, and as we invest the proceeds of the rights issue, we will add around GBP 14 million of NOI, including GBP 5 million at The Courtyard. Once we've delivered our current ambition for our Fully Managed spaces to represent more than 75% of our targeted total Flex footprint of 1 million sq ft, they'll be generating NOI of GBP 76 million, an uplift of seven times today's level. As you can see on the right, this NOI is way ahead of what we generate on either a Ready to Fit or fitted basis, and the expected service profit of GBP 13 million per annum will deliver significant incremental value of around GBP 150 million, based on the value as 8.5% cap rate.
Now, pulling this all together to show the group's significant rent roll growth opportunity. Our rent roll today is GBP 107.5 million, and our existing business plans should almost double this to more than GBP 210 million, including another GBP 49 million from current on-site HQ schemes and GBP 27 million from current Flex projects. Today's equity raising will advance things further, with our Soho Square scheme adding GBP 12 million, and the anticipated rights issue funded Flex acquisitions and conversions should deliver nearly GBP 27 million of gross rent roll or GBP 14 million of post-OpEx NOI. This is based on an assumed 6%+ stabilized net yield on cost, consistent with our recent experience and current underwriting.
In sum, rent roll would rise to GBP 249 million, an uplift of 132%, and that's before factoring in rent roll growth and ensuing acquisitions. At the same time as driving rent roll growth, we will maintain our track record of recycling discipline, typically selling out of longer, larger lot-sized properties once business plans have been developed. With more than GBP 660 million of long-dated HQ properties, there'll be more sales from us once investment markets stabilize. What does this all mean for returns? We expect to deliver an annualized total accounting return of 10%+ in the medium term, which should be higher still as and when prime yields compress. The majority of this return will come through development surpluses and rental growth capture.
In addition, we expect earnings to inflect over the next year as we deliver and lease up our extensive on-site development and refurb program. Looking further ahead, there should be strong earnings growth from increased rental income and Flex NOI, lower interest costs, and ongoing cost discipline. As a result, the FY 25 total dividend payout will be no less than GBP 31.9 million, paid in FY 24. We expect subsequent dividend growth in line with our progressive policy, given our medium-term earnings outlook. Last but not least, given recent financing activities and post-receipt of the rights issue proceeds, we will have total available liquidity of just under GBP 600 million, and pro forma LTV of 18%.
Once the proceeds have been deployed, we expect LTV to return towards the upper end of our through the cycle 10%-35% range, as we invest into a rising market, and as we seek to maintain our financial leverage while increasing our operational leverage. On the right, you can see the key terms of the GBP 350 million fully underwritten, fully preemptive rights issue, which will add around GBP 450 million of total near-term investment capacity, based on our disciplined approach to leverage. As we've said, this will be deployed into new acquisitions over the next 12-18 months, along with development CapEx on two recent acquisitions. The issue price of GBP 2.30 represents a 33% discount to TERP, with admission of the new shares expected on the June 12th.
GPE directors will be personally investing around GBP 2 million into the fundraising. To recap on this exciting opportunity to accelerate growth through attractive new investments across HQ and Flex. The timing is right, with central London office values at or around trough, and down to near 2009 levels in real terms. We've identified a compelling and deep acquisition pipeline, and we'll be committing CapEx into two recently acquired prime West End properties. Occupational market dynamics are favorable, too, which will further accelerate real rental growth. We're uniquely placed to take advantage, with the rights issue bang in line with our raise and return strategy, and proven track record of disciplined capital management. Looking ahead, our activities will deliver long-term value and income growth, with a prospective TAR of more than 10%. Lots for us to look forward to.
Now, looking back for a moment, starting with the headlines of our valuation and financial performance, with the numbers clearly impacted by the higher interest rate environment. The group's property portfolio stands at GBP 2.3 billion, with rent roll having increased to GBP 107.5 million. The 12.1% like-for-like valuation decline was the principal driver of the fall in EPRA NTA to GBP 6.24 per share, with the vast majority of the decline in the first half. EPRA LTV increased to 32.6% at year-end, predominantly driven by our investment activities, with our debt financing activities ensuring our liquidity remains strong.
And whilst net rental income rose by 1.9%, as expected and guided, EPRA earnings fell by 25%, given higher interest costs, as you can see on the chart. We also maintained total dividends for the year at 12.6 pence per share. And there's plenty more detail on our financials in the appendices. Now, a bit more detail on the valuation. ERV growth was again attractive at 3.8% overall, including a rebound in retail ERV growth to 4.4%. With yield expansion of 56 basis points, overall property values declined by 12.1%.
Office values, which represents almost 80% of the portfolio, fell less than retail, with our Flex spaces the strongest relative valuation performer, as our Fully Managed spaces fell only 4.4%, with 5.2% of ERV growth. As shown on the right, the portfolio equivalent yield has risen to 5.3%, well above the 20-year average. Given continued rental growth, our reversionary yield is now almost 7%. Bottom left, a breakdown of today's portfolio, which is latent with value. 24% is currently under or being prepared for development and refurbishment, offering significant upside potential as we transform these sites into prime, modern, sustainable spaces. You can see in gray, 28% of the portfolio is long-dated properties, which are already prime, which we've created and are all in the West End.
As I said earlier, they will be attractive recycling opportunities for us once investment markets stabilize. Finally, the best continues to relatively outperform at both an ERV growth level in purple and by valuation shown in green. By EPC rating, our A and B spaces again outperformed, as did our higher capital value per sq ft spaces. And our West End properties, representing nearly three quarters of the portfolio, outperformed, too, with ERV growth of 5.3%. And as you've heard from Toby, we expect these trends to continue. Now, a quick debt update. Shown top left, both pre and post the rights issue, we continue to operate within our 10%-35% through the cycle LTV target range. Given our debt financing activities over the year, liquidity was GBP 633 million at year-end.
Since then, we've repaid GBP 175 million of maturing USPPs, and we'll be canceling our GBP 200 million short-term facility. On receipt of the rights issue proceeds, liquidity will rise to more than GBP 590 million. Bottom left, and looking ahead, you can see the earliest maturity across our diversified debt book is not until late 2026, and we have extension options for this flexible GBP 250 million ESG-linked term loan. As shown bottom right, 96% of our debt is on a flexible, unsecured basis. The weighted average interest rate of our drawn debt is 4.9%, and 90% is at fixed or capped rates. With our strong debt metrics and credit market conditions expected to further improve, we anticipate more accretive debt financing activity in the year ahead.
Finally, from me, a quick update on our unique Flex offer, which continues to lease extremely well. Our GBP 13.7 million of lettings in the year includes 17 deals in H2, securing GBP 7.2 million of rent. The majority was in Fully Managed spaces, 11% ahead of ERV, and in the West End, where we secured average rents of GBP 238 per sq ft. We're leasing the space quickly to well-established and high-growth companies alike, and our customers are in good health and paying on time, too, with no delinquencies. As you can see, top right, our Flex leasing momentum continues to build in terms of volumes, the beat to ERV, and the average rent achieved on our Fully Managed deals.
We have strong customer satisfaction, too, reflected in both our market-leading Net Promoter Scores and retention rate of more than 75% for our Fully Managed spaces. This retention is reducing friction costs, while we're also capturing strong rental uplifts of 40% on our Fully Managed renewals, with rents now averaging more than 250 GBP a foot at Dufour's Place, up from 191 GBP in 2021, when we launched this as our first dedicated, Fully Managed building. Taking this together, this is driving our excellent Flex financial performance. You can see in the middle column of the table, all of our Fully Managed key measures have improved since the half year and are well ahead of our targets.
In particular, relative to Ready to Fit, we delivered a 117% rent beat and an 82% cash flow beat, producing a yield on cost of 6.3% and service margin of 43%. As shown in the bottom row, we're getting good lease duration, too. More than 5.5 years on fitted deals and 2.5 on Fully Managed, a clear differentiator to serviced office operators. Our Flex activities remain a significant income and value growth opportunity. Now back to Toby for a development update.
Thank you, Nick. So then turning to touch briefly on our development and major refurb pipeline, and as you can see from the boxes on the right, we now have 3 committed HQ schemes, up from 2 at the half year, having started works at Minerva House since then, and taken together, they're already 50% pre-let. Our Flex refurbs, shown in light green, are also up 1 to 7, with the addition of The Courtyard. Plus, we now have 2 near-term HQ projects, with our updated plans at New City Court shaping up nicely for a part new build, part refurb scheme. So in total, we have 13 major schemes covering 1.1 million sq ft or 49% of the portfolio, the vast majority of which is either on-site or will be in the very near term.
Turning to look in a bit more detail at our three committed schemes, where there is significant profit to come, as you heard from Nick earlier, each is prime, each with exemplary sustainability credentials and with strong pre-let potential. Indeed, at 2 Aldermanbury Square, top left, we are now 100% pre-let, following Clifford Chance's decision not to hand back space. We're on budget, and we expect to finish in Q1 2026, with returns now recovering following the circa 100 basis points of yield shift against us, and we now have around GBP 30 million of profit to come from the current valuation. At French Railways House on Piccadilly and Jermyn Street, demolition has just started, and we're currently forecasting off today's rents and yields, a 24% profit and a 6.4% development yield for this column-free, absolute best-in-class St James's building.
Given my comments on the market earlier, we clearly have upside potential here. The same can be said of Minerva House, down on the South Bank, where we've just started our major part refurb, part new build scheme to create 143,000 sq ft of Grade A space, up 56%. Again, off today's rents and yields, we're forecasting a 19% profit on cost and a 7% development yield. Three great schemes generating a big area increase of 65%, a sizable ERV increase from the buildings they replace of 161%, and generating a healthy development yield of 6%, with a further GBP 103 million of profit to come, even before any rental or yield compression. A strong, best-in-class HQ development program with lots of upside to capture.
So let's wrap up then with our outlook. As we think about what next for GPE, we see plenty of opportunity for us, and we feel well set to take advantage. 3 reasons: First, we have a crystal-clear strategy. Central London only, an economy expected to outperform, 74% West End, 93% close to the Elizabeth line, delivering only the best-in-class HQ and Flex spaces, and our pipeline and ambition are significant, always focusing on customers' needs and on sustainability, and of course, keeping to our contracyclical capital discipline whilst maintaining our strong balance sheet throughout. Second, we think today's markets are increasingly supportive. We know we're staring down the barrel of a serious Grade A supply shortage, meaning that rents are rising, with the best continuing to outperform the rest.
The cycle has returned, with real central London values now near 2009 levels, meaning that for the first time since 2013, we are finding attractive, accretive acquisitions in scale and have turned net buyer. Plus, we think Grade A yield compression is possible over the next 12 months or so, and all supporting the launch of our fully underwritten rights issue today to enable us to take full advantage. And third, our portfolio is well-positioned to deliver both income and capital growth. In HQ and Flex, we have significant profits to come. We expect to grow our rent roll across the business by about 100% before any acquisitions, both of which will combine to deliver accretive prospective total returns of more than 10% annualized, based on prudent current underwriting assumptions.
And of course, before any further asset sales, which we will resume once market pricing has recovered. So we feel well set with GPE in great shape and some exciting times ahead. Our operational infrastructure to deliver these returns is all in place, led by a deeply experienced senior team, and from here, we can look forward to positive prospects for the long term. Okay, there's a lot to chew on there. I hope it all made sense and resonated with you. I'm sure there'll be lots of questions, and if there are more than we can cope with this morning, we'll be very happy to answer them later in the day. But who would like to start? Yes. We've got some microphones doing the rounds, I think, and we've got the team here to help answer them, and there were some microphones here.
I guess they'll be running around. Have we got them there? Okay, brilliant. Yes, far away.
Good morning, Ben Richford from Bernstein. First question, just on the rights issue, quantum, GBP 350 million, GBP 450 million of capacity, to create nearly GBP 600 million of liquidity. You've outlined, GBP 1.3 billion of CapEx and acquisition opportunities, probability weighted. Will this be sufficient?
Well, could we go to the cycle? Thank you. Rich read my mind already. Good question, Ben. I mean, let's see. We don't want to over-equitize the business today. We've outlined very clearly that we think there is around about GBP 350 million of near-term opportunities, risk-weighted, if you like. But if you remember, last cycle, we did come back a few years later, having invested significantly more than we raised then. And the other thing to remember, of course, as Nick outlined, is we have circa GBP 660 million of sales we're likely to make once markets have stabilized. As I said, we don't want to make them now. And they, of course, that cash will come back into the investable pipeline, if you like.
So we don't have to call it today into the middle distance, but we're pretty comfortable that the GBP 350 million we're raising gives us that right balance between relatively quickly investable quantums, and given the opportunity we're seeing in the market.
Thank you. Second question, just on interest cover. I think your covenants exclude the capitalized interest, but can you just discuss how banks look at that on a number, including the capitalized interest, please?
Nick, there's a microphone there. Have you got one?
... So, to be clear, Ben, we haven't actually put where we are with regards to our debt covenants in the deck, because you'll find them in the back of the announcement, frankly, because they're not a concern. But to specifically answer your question, the ICR covenant that we have is at 1.35 times. Today, cover is at north of 3.5. We do get the benefit of capitalized interest within that, and that's always been the case with our financing. But it's clearly one of the reasons why, on the one hand, we're coming to the market today, is because we want to do more. This is not about us reducing our leverage. This is about us maintaining our financial leverage.
It's about increasing our financial capacity, but it's also about us increasing our operational leverage. So when we look at the our debt metrics on a go-forward basis, of course, we look at LTV, we look at NAV gearing, we look at ICR, we look at debt to EBITDA. But our main focus tends to be on the balance sheet, for the simple reason that a large proportion of the returns that we generate often don't find their way into the P&L. You know, particularly given just under half of our prospective TAR is gonna come through development surpluses. A lot of that value may never find its way into the P&L, because we'll sell those assets on to somebody with a lower cost of capital than we currently have.
Just to come back to Toby's your earlier question and Toby's answer, we've got a slide in the back, which just gives a bit more color about financial capacity. I think it's right on 57. And the thing I would add here, and this is really all about the point of wanting to keep financial leverage broadly where it is, at in the low thirties. And as I said earlier, the reason it's already in the low thirties, it's a little bit because value's declined, but it's principally been driven because we've been investing it through acquisitions, but also through development CapEx. As Toby referenced, this is our forward look, and we've got in there GBP 660 million of prospective sales.
Those sales are existing, stabilized, long-dated assets that I think we will sell likely in 2025, 2026, as we've set out in the bottom of the chart. But what it clearly doesn't factor in is our on-site committed developments today, which as yet, are not long dated. They're not yet shiny, they're not yet prime, but they will be when they're finished. And the same discipline that we've always committed around capital recycling, look at forward-look returns, would suggest that over the course of the next 3-4 years, there could be more sales than this. But equally, there could be a bunch more acquisitions than we've shown here.
In sizing at GBP 350, even as GBP 450, we are very clear in our commitment, we're looking to deploy that within the next 12-18 months, to get right on the front foot in a market where it's absolutely the time to be buying, not selling.
Thanks. And just to follow up then, the ICR, including the capitalized interest, is what? It's 1.4 or something?
The cover is at 1.35. Yes, yes, if you were to strip out capitalized interest, it would be in the ones.
Okay, thanks. And just a final question: what is the EPRA cost ratio, and where can we expect that to trend?
Yeah. So our EPRA cost ratio is in the 50s. It's come down a little bit, it was in the 60s. Again, as you know, the EPRA cost ratio looks at your costs relative to your rental income. And again, as you know, a lot of the rental income we create doesn't find its way into the into the P&L. Our aspiration over time is to bring that down. I and my my intention is for us to push to get that down to sub-40 over the course of the next three to four years as we grow from here. And clearly, within that, ongoing cost discipline remains absolute. But we have been building the infrastructure so we can take advantage of the opportunity that we're talking about today, doing more development and doing more Flex.
Thank you.
Yep. One over there. Thank you.
Callum Marley from Kolytics. You guys have a good track record of recycling capital, judging turning points in the market, and assuming that this is one of those. Just looking at the numbers for the rights issue, you're raising quite expensive equity while trading at a material discount to GAV about 20%, which is very much in line with your current development profit on costs and the historic ones. So can you just help us understand the rationale there? And as a follow-up, how you'll be able to clear the high cost of capital bar that you set, and any additional material transaction costs you might incur?
Yeah, very good question. The first thing to say is, the beauty of the rights issue process is that it gives all existing shareholders the right to participate. Now, if you think about it, let's say you've got a holding of GBP 10 today, and you're given the chance to put GBP 4 in tomorrow, you're still, the day after that, worth GBP 14. So you've seen, in pounds terms, irrespective of the issue price, no dilution, if you take up your rights. If you don't take up your rights, you have, for a well-positioned rights issue, appropriately sold into the market by good brokers and banks, you have nil paid, which trade at their value, which allow you to make yourself self-whole, if you choose not to participate.
When we thought about the cost of the rights issue relative to our business plans, we've also considered alternative business plans and judged as to whether or not-
... one would be better than the other. So we began thinking this through in the autumn last year, as we could see markets were moving in our direction, as we could see opportunities were growing. And we asked ourselves the question: Is it better for shareholders for us to sell assets, then, at a deep discount to what we believe is their fundamental worth, and use that capital to employ into new opportunities? Or is it, in fact, better to offer all shareholders, fully preemptive, the right to come into the new opportunities, hold back the sales for when we can make a better return from those sales? And if you look at the total accounting returns, or indeed the IRRs, the latter is better than the former. That's the math that we've done, and we've looked at it in great detail.
The real issue here, actually, is the speed with which and the quality of the investments that we make from the raise, right? So that's the thing that matters most, because we're asking shareholders to put their hands in their pockets to back those acquisitions, in essence. And our judgment, I hope made clear this morning, is that we believe the pipeline is good, is accretive, and can be executed, as Nick said, within 12-18 months. It is an expensive process, granted. We get that. It involves lots of people. It's quite a binding process. It takes a while, et cetera. But as I say, we've done the math. We think it's a better accretive, more accretive return for investors than the alternative, which is either not buying these opportunities or selling assets at a deep discount to pay for those opportunities.
That's been the basic thinking. Obviously, lots more behind it, and time will tell whether we've got it right. I think we got it right last time. Let's hope we've got it right again this time, and we think we will. Nick, anything you want to add to that?
No, no, I mean, there, there's no doubt that, this is an extensive process, and clearly, before going through it, we assessed all the all the options that were available to us. And clearly, for the first time, we've put out a very clear aspiration around total accounting return, at the 10%+. That is circa 10-20 percentage points higher than it would have been without doing this. And this is not a judgment number. This is bottom up, building by building, lease by lease, no assumption of yield compression, a couple of years of slightly above, inflation rental growth, and our hope is that, that 10 will be higher still, bearing in mind that our cost of capital today is around 8-9%.
And we do think we're gonna get some yield compression. Maybe not next week, maybe not next month, and maybe not this year, but we're gonna get it. Yeah, up in the front. Thank you.
Good morning. Adam Shapton from Green Street. Just, this may be a bit of crystal ball gazing, but thinking about the makeup of the portfolio in four or five years, Flex, obviously, a growing part of the mix. You're talking about selling substantial amounts of long income. Appreciate you're also developing on the HQ side. Two questions: What does that mean for your ability to, you know, manage the cycle, be countercyclical? If Flex is an ever larger piece of the pie, so there's obviously operational gearing there. Presumably, you don't want to be shrinking and growing that as the cycle goes through.
And then related to that, wherever you think that mix will land, what do you think is the appropriate capital structure, maybe in terms of debt EBITDA, rather than LTVs, but, you know, income-related debt metrics?
Yeah. Okay, maybe I'll take the first part, and Nick, you touch the second part. Rich, can we go to the sales slide at the back, please? The one with the history. Thank you very much. Okay, great question, Adam, because quite rightly, you've identified a pivot in strategy towards Flex over the last few years, which, on the face of it, with a growing income from the Flex opportunity, you would imagine, produces a collection of assets which are less obviously things we'd want to sell. So if we hold on to them, does that limit our prospective recycling and therefore cycle reading?
Well, if you look at the history of selling in this business, by and large, they have been large assets, HQ development assets, which are the chunkiest pieces, and that's the blue bars that you can see there, all the way back to 2012, with some images of the sorts of things we have sold at the bottom. And I don't think that changes at all. So if you look from here, the GBP 660 million that Nick has referenced is all in those larger HQ-style assets.
If you look beyond those into what we're currently building and producing, and I'm thinking of buildings where we've already pre-let them or where over the next few years we're likely to, on typically longer leases, you can imagine there's quite a lot more of that sort of product that we will likely sell once we've essentially created the value to allow us to, reemploy in new opportunities. So I think we are pretty well set for at least the next five years of recycling capital as we build out these buildings. Flex, at the minute, is about 30% of our office book, and it's, it's, it is potentially going to increase. But if we increase it, it'll be because it's throwing off enough return. It'll be because it's accretive relative to other things we could do, so shareholders would benefit.
And if you look back at that slide again, please, Rich, sorry, the sales slide, the vast majority of our Flex portfolio sits within the smaller buildings that we traditionally have never sold anyway. So we don't think that there is any fundamental change needed to our recycling and capital cycle reading, fundamental strategic imperative. That I think holds nicely. It's just that now, we're gonna generate more return from the bits that we've traditionally held than traditionally we would have. So net positive is our view currently. Reserve the right to change that as markets evolve, but that's essentially what we're thinking of today.
... I don't, I don't think the, the evolution of our model, and it is evolution. Let's bear in mind that GPE is well known for owning and developing these big HQ buildings, but actually, the core of our portfolio has always been these smaller lot size buildings. All we're doing differently now is getting more return from them by overlaying the provision of service. Clearly, we are on typically, like a slightly shorter lease, but not a lot shorter, and as I referenced on the Flex deals, 5 years+, on the Fully Managed, 2.5 years. But it's all the more reason why our focus is absolutely on customer satisfaction. It's why every single person, part of their rem, is linked to our Net Promoter Score.
Because when you keep customers in the building, drive up the rents, that 2.5 lease duration doesn't actually matter. What that 2.5 lease duration gives you is the ability to capture rental growth more quickly than you can do on a typical 5-year upward-only rent review. So I think, ultimately, when we're thinking about our leverage, and we've reiterated this morning our 10-35 LTV, and I've referenced why we still focus primarily on LTV, but not exclusively, but primarily on LTV. I think I've hopefully explained why we're doing that. But fundamentally, the biggest risks we're taking are still as they always have been. We're making a very considered bet on London. It's a cyclical market, and that's one of the reasons why we're here raising money, which is one of the reasons why we always keep our leverage relatively modest.
And number two, big development plays. There is clearly much more operational risk associated with that than Flex, but equally, with the rental market as it is today, and the supply as tight as it is, we feel as though we're being appropriately, we're generating the appropriate returns for taking that risk. So as things currently stand, I don't envisage any material change in our capital structure in the near term. Thanks, Adam.
Thank you.
Yep, in the middle. Thank you very much.
Zietsman from Liberum. You mentioned the prospect for yield compression. Just wondering where you think that comes from. Is that from capital costs coming down, or do you think the market starts to price for higher ERV growth?
Yeah, I think it's, I think it's a bit of both, and it's very asset specific, and I think it only really is accessible at the very best end of the market. Dan, you might just want to think about where we can expect to see it over the medium term. But if you look at the sorts of things that we're currently building, we are creating the absolute very best quality of space in our developments in particular. And if you look at the pricing that they're in the books at, they ain't demanding under any measure. I mean, CBRE, quite rightly, do an independent valuation. They do a very good job of it. They have all of the data to hand.
But by definition, they're looking at most recent evidence, and we're coming from a backdrop of interest rates rising and an environment where there's not a huge amount of evidence for them to use in determining what yields are doing, given the investment market disruption that I referenced earlier. So I think, you know, if you look at some of the yields on cost that we're talking about for our developments here, you know, that 7% on the South Bank in a scheme that is as good as anything on the South Bank, and yet the book value per foot down there is low hundreds per foot. Okay, so these are not demanding prices.
So a consequence of the place from which we've come, and, and I think the other thing to say here is, relative to 2009, where yields were forced a lot lower by QE, I'm not sure we're going to see that this time. We may see some interest rate decline, clearly, which feeds into yields, but I think a lot of it will indeed come from faster rent growth this time round than we saw after the GFC. Not least for planning reasons, for, for all sorts of, constraining, market operating reasons, we'll see rents rising quickly. Sort of things we're looking at?
Yeah, so the other issue on yield compression is, I think, the weight of capital. At the moment, Toby cited the quantum of capital looking at the market has come right down over the last couple of years. Obviously, that at some point will increase. And the dent of that is that you end up with, say, further yield compression due to people trying to invest in the market. So, we're already seeing a stabilization, I think, in the West End, in smaller assets, anything under GBP 50 million. There's a lot of money out there, family offices, paying for things with cash. Leverage not too difficult to get. We've got some bankers here today, so hopefully not too difficult to get.
But, there's certainly leverage available for some of the smaller assets at reasonable LTVs, and that's providing some liquidity. And those assets in the West End, so we're seeing stability there. I think in the City, there's a little more on the bigger assets. City generally has bigger assets. There's a little more uncertainty on the pricing of those. But we're looking across the piece, and as Toby and Nick have both said, we definitely feel that now is the time to go and acquire. It's definitely, you know, one of those markets where the phone is ringing. Side doors, not front doors, so brochure processes, not really where we want to be doing.
We've done a couple recently, and we've been some way off where other investors, perhaps with a lower cost of capital, perhaps not with the team that we've got to appraise these things properly. But we've got a list, which the investment team put together, an A list of 8, B list, I think we've got 11, C list has got 15 on it. I won't show it to you 'cause it's got all our secrets on it, but there's plenty of stuff in there which, on a daily basis, we're absolutely gonna, you know, do our best, get that capital invested over the next 12-18 months.
The other thing I would add to that is, thanks, Rich, is that 96% of those 27 discussions, so basically all of them, are one-on-one dialogues. Where Dan's expression, side door, not front door, is bang on. I mean, you know, we're not queuing up with everybody else. We're finding circumstances where current owners have a vacancy or a cash flow question around refurb and how much it's gonna cost them to put a building into a Grade A position, which is the only position you want to be in if you're interested in capturing rental growth, get the sustainability credentials correct, et cetera, et cetera. It's expensive. It's hard work, it's specialist work. It requires planning knowledge, and that's really tough these days.
There are very few people in this market who can do that quite as well as the GPE team can do that. And so the opportunity to convert average quality into Grade A is what we're all about, and that conversion process, in and of itself, should generate some yield compression over time, aside from market yield compression. Thank you. Tim?
Thanks. Tim Leckie, Panmure Liberum. Rental growth going forward, your development profit on costs are based on today's rents. You said development's gonna be half of your IRR, 10%. Given the gearing inherent in development, could you talk to how that IRR, or at least that development contribution, will evolve? Should that 8-10 for the stock you're completing, target IRR, whatever you wanna call it, move on in line with the rental growth that you're alluding to in the presentation?
Yeah. Okay. Well, there are two parts to that question. Marc, maybe you just wanna give us a sense of the leasing story, you know, where we think we're gonna get prospective customers from and how that's feeling to you. I mean, Tim, quite rightly, I think, we've based our current numbers on today's numbers, right? So, so we have a strong conviction that rents are going to rise quite strongly for all the reasons we've explained, but it makes sense to underwrite off today's numbers. There are only so many levers you can pull to create better returns. One of them is clearly the quality of our product. That's gonna be as best as anybody can create across all of our spaces. Construction costs is another one that's relevant to how the outturn results of a development look.
And I think, I mean, we've had a pretty rough ride for the last five years on construction costs, as inflation has fed into the system, and all sorts of supply chain issues have prevented us from, from you know, buying as well as we used to. And you can see here, what's happened to construction costs over the last 10 or so years. Prospectively, what's interesting about this is it's still rising, but by less than was forecast this time last year. So there's a move in the right direction there. We're still forecasting and putting into our appraisals, rising rising construction costs, but by less than we were. So construction cost is one, yields is another. Clearly, we've talked about that, and rents is the third principal component, not just the amount you lease space for, but the speed with which you lease it.
On that, Marc, any thoughts?
Hi, Tim. So I think certainly in terms of active demand, it's never been high. It's actually at a 20-year high today, and depending on who you listen to, somewhere between 12.3-12.95 million. And Rich, the slide that we got from Cushman & Wakefield at the back of the deck is probably worthwhile showing. Now, I think it's the other one, 74, I think is next one there. That just shows how much active demand has actually spiked over the last 12 months. And if you drill down into it, it's the same old story. It is finance, banking, insurance, and professional services are making up about 60% of the entirety of the demand, and that's definitely playing into the developments that we have.
Obviously, we're leading with French Railways House, 30 Duke Street, St James's, as it will be known, and then obviously Minerva House, as well. I think one of the key features is that a number of the occupiers are actually expanding rather than contracting. Over 50% of all those requirements are increasing. Again, another key feature is that the West End and the City is dominating take-up. The fringe markets are getting quieter, and the West End and City core markets are increasing. Then the other thing just to say is that in terms of the size of the requirements, they're getting larger. There's over 24 requirements out there that are over 100,000 sq ft, which is, again, a 20-year high.
There's 7-8 at the moment that are over 200,000 sq ft. So I would say that at the moment, everything is set fair for our opportunity to pre-let.
I mean, it's a very rare day when, at the GPE office, we have a debate about whether we should, in fact, hold off pre-letting. Thank you, Mark. You know, there are various views around the room back at base. I've always been someone who likes to get on a let space to remove the risk, the consequence or the risk of which is that you leave potentially some rent on the table. Some of my colleagues are pushing back, I think, quite rightly on that at the minute, because their judgment is there's no supply, and there's a whole load of demand out there that might mean we could lease that space better, a lot better, than the current underwrite. So that lever is moving.
The construction cost lever feels relatively stable, and the yield lever is stable to potentially beneficial to return. So we think, we think they're looking pretty good.
Thanks.
Okay, I think we're sort of out of time, unless there's one burning question from anybody. No? I think that's good. Okay. Well, listen, thank you so much for coming on this morning. I hope you found that helpful. Lots of positive stories here, and we really are getting onto the front foot and investing in in what we feel is a strong market with London at the very core of it. So, very happy to take further questions during the day, but thank you once again for coming. See you soon. Well done, Mark.