Well, good morning, everybody, and a very warm welcome to Great Portland's interim results presentation. It's great to see you. Thank you for giving us your time on this Friday morning. The run order will be a short presentation, giving you all of the detail around our healthy results that we have published this morning. We'll follow that up with an opportunity for you to ask us questions as ever. To help answer those questions, we will have a good cross-section of the senior team. I'll be joined by Nick, Stephen, Andy, Mark, Robin, Janine, and I'd also like to welcome Dan Nicholson, who joined us as an Executive Director in October. He also will be joining to help answer any questions we have later. I hope you enjoy the presentation.
There's lots of detail in there. The full deck will be on our website, so you can see there the material, and there are lots of appendices as ever with a great deal of detail to help understand the story. Without further ado, let's get started and turn our attention, please, to the presentation. At our finals in May, you'll remember I talked about the extraordinary challenges we've all faced as a result of the pandemic. Clearly, some of those challenges still exist. As you'll hear from us over the next 30 or so minutes, there are now strong signs of recovery, gathering momentum in the London economy and in its property markets.
We at GPE are feeling confident about our prospects as we emerge from the pandemic in very robust health with one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector, a portfolio full of opportunity, and a team focused on driving positive change and innovation across our business. Over the next few slides, Nick and I will give you the main messages from our results, the conditions of our markets, a broader business update, and our outlook from here. You'll also notice that we have evolved our brand, shortening our name to GPE and giving ourselves a fresh new look. Our core values and our purpose remain as applicable today as ever, and so are unchanged. We think our refreshed brand will allow us to connect with our customers, our partners, and our communities even more powerfully than we already do.
Let's kick off with the headlines, and these are robust results. Our property valuation was up 2% over the six months with a strong performance from our developments, up 29.7%. Encouragingly, ERVs were also up by 1.6%, driving a total property return of 3.7%, outperforming the MSCI Central London Index and delivering EPRA NTA per share growth of 2.2%. A strong turnaround from this time last year and a business that is operating well and doing so from a position of both strength and opportunity. Four points. First, we're addressing all of today's key occupier themes, giving our customers spaces of the highest quality, focusing on Prime, where demand is at its deepest. We're offering flexibility through our Flex spaces and great service with a relentless focus on a customer-first approach.
We're weaving strong amenity provision through all our designs, including the adoption of market-leading technology. We're hardwiring sustainability considerations across our activities as a strategic imperative and supporting occupiers and our communities with the launch today of our Social Impact Strategy. Taken together in this hybrid working world, we need to create magnetic buildings, enticing our customers into our spaces and then retaining them. Our single-minded focus on these themes will ensure that they are. Second, our approach is driving our strong leasing. We've already secured GBP 27 million in new rents since March, and as you can see in the chart, in the first six months, we've leased pretty much the same as the total for the previous two years put together. We're handsomely beating ERVs in the process by 9.8% in H1 and a strong 11.1% for our retail lettings.
With our underlying vacancy rate lower at 5.1% or 14%, including recently completed developments, we've more to do. It's good space. 85% is Prime, and we have GBP 2.4 million under offer at a 7% premium to ERV with a further GBP 16 million in negotiation. Healthy leasing momentum with robust demand for Prime and Flex space, and as I'll cover later, improving interest from retailers as well. Third, our financial position remains as strong as ever. Our rent collection has improved each quarter since the start of the pandemic, and we're getting back to more normal conditions.
Following profitable sales at a premium to book value, gearing is low at 16.7%, and liquidity is high at nearly GBP 500 million, giving us significant capacity for further investment as we set out to capture the deep opportunity across our portfolio. For example, in our investment portfolio, through growing our Flex product, up 12% since this time last year to 15% of our office portfolio today. In our development portfolio, where 75% of our 1.4 million sq ft program is either on-site or could be in the near term, investing more than GBP 870 million in the process with our earliest start in January 2022, and in the investment market, where we'll find further raw material to add to our deep portfolio opportunity. Add all this up, and we're excited by our material growth potential.
Organic income upside of more than 90% before we make any acquisitions. Plus, we're well-placed to capitalize on the opportunity with both balance sheet strength and a fully engaged great team. As we think about life after COVID, we maintain our view that London, through its ever-present process of evolution, will solidify its position as a relevant and dominant world city with an exciting long-term growth story. Over now to Nick to look at the results in more detail.
Thank you, Toby. Good morning, everyone. I'll take you through our detailed financial results, as well as our extensive capacity for investment, both organically into Prime office developments and externally through acquisitions. I'll also share the headlines from our new Social Impact Strategy, which aligns with our broader sustainability ambitions. Starting with the numbers. The group's property portfolio stands at GBP 2.5 billion, up 2% on a like-for-like basis, which resulted in EPRA NTA rising 2.2% to GBP 7.96 and LTV reducing to 16.7%. As expected and guided, EPRA earnings fell to GBP 18.7 million, taking EPRA EPS to GBP 7.4. With our strong financial position, we are paying an interim dividend of GBP 4.7 . Overall, our total accounting return was positive 3.2%.
Now, let's look at the NTA increase, which was driven by the property valuation uplift adding GBP 1.6 , with office values up 2.8%, given ERV growth of 2.3%. The significant retail declines experienced in recent periods seem to have eased, with values down only 0.8% in the six months. On a like-for-like basis, our committed development at 50 Finsbury Square was the star performer, up 30% following the office pre-let. With our long-dated properties, including our landmark Hanover Square scheme, also posting a healthy uplift of nearly 7%. Returning to the walk, our profitable sale of 160 Old Street added GBP 0.1 , with EPRA earnings delivering another GBP 0.7 while dividends reduced NTA by GBP 0.8 . With other items of GBP 0.1 , NTA stands at GBP 7.96 .
Now, moving to income and an update on rent collection. The chart top left shows that of the GBP 41.6 million billed in the period, 88% has now been collected. Of the balance, the majority is accounted for by the GBP 3.3 million expected credit loss, 83% of which relates to retail, hospitality, and leisure occupiers. You can see on the right that our seven-day collection rate has been improving each quarter, and we have so far collected more than 90% of the September rent with an office collection rate of 95%. As shown bottom left, we have been successfully managing down rent roll on monthly payment terms to more normalized levels of 6% to date. I'm also pleased to say that we've had no delinquencies since we reported in May and still have GBP 20 million of rent deposits available if required.
Pulling this all together and turning to EPRA earnings, which you'll recall were GBP 20.6 million in the prior period. Rental income was GBP 1.7 million lower, in part due to short-term income forgone from developing Finsbury Square. While JV earnings were strongly up by GBP 5.3 million, supported by the GBP 3.9 million surrender premium received at Regent Street from Superdry, whose space we immediately relet to Uniqlo. JV fees increased by GBP 3.5 million, including fees received on the Old Street sale, although associated costs we incurred were up GBP 2.1 million. When combined with increased vacancy costs of GBP 1.6 million, this contributes to property costs rising GBP 5.1 million.
Admin costs increased by GBP 3.3 million, given higher provisions for performance-related pay and with other movements of GBP 0.6 million, overall earnings were GBP 18.7 million. As you'll see bottom left, this resulted in EPRA EPS of GBP 7.4 and cash EPS of GBP 5.1. We are paying an interim dividend of GBP 4.7 , bang in line with the prior year. In the near term, we expect second half earnings to be lower than H1 following the Old Street sale and expected lower surrender premium receipts. However, looking further ahead, we continue to have a significant organic rent roll growth opportunity with a potential 91% uplift.
Starting from our current rent roll of GBP 101.1 million, up 6% since May, leasing our void and refurb space will add GBP 13 million of rent, nearly 60% of which will be delivered as Flex space. We have another GBP 6.6 million available through reversion capture, shown in green. Beyond the existing GBP 16.2 million of lettings at our three recently completed developments, there's a further GBP 13.5 million still available, of which more than half is currently under offer or in negotiation. Shown in dark blue through the Inmarsat pre-let, we have already secured GBP 8.5 million of the GBP 9 million total rent potential at Finsbury Square. Beyond this, our four near-term schemes, which starts from early next year, could add an extra GBP 50 million of rent.
Overall, this gives a total potential uplift of more than GBP 92 million. Our financial strength means we are exceptionally well-positioned to deliver on these growth ambitions. Following the Old Street sale, our consistently low LTV has fallen to 16.7%, again, one of the very lowest in the U.K. REIT sector. As shown bottom left, our weighted average debt maturity is strong at nearly eight years. 98% of our debt is on a flexible unsecured basis. Our available liquidity has increased to GBP 486 million, which if fully utilized, would reduce our weighted average interest rate to only 2%.
Looking ahead, with total potential CapEx of GBP 924 million, more than 90% into office space, and GBP 830 million into our four near-term schemes, as broken out in the pie chart, prospective LTV will remain at comfortable levels, peaking at below 40%. Remember, that's before factoring in development surpluses and prospective sales. Given the CapEx phasing, we have extensive capacity for acquisitions. As ever, we are actively seeking out accretive opportunities, but our approach remains focused and disciplined, meaning that we have made no acquisitions in the period. Since our full year results, of the eight properties which we had under detailed review and subsequently sold or went under offer, three of them traded near our view of fair value.
All three were potentially suitable for our Flex offering and had a combined value of just over GBP 215 million, a similar position to the one we reported in May. That being said, you'll also see the majority of deals are still transacting at pricing levels well ahead of our view. However, on the right, you can see our deal flow remains good, with more than GBP 900 million of acquisitions currently under review. These are predominantly off-market, and as the pie chart shows, they play into our key themes of value add repositioning, growing our Flex offering, and development. We have yet to see assets stranded by the growing sustainability needs of occupiers and regulators come to the investment market, but they will emerge. Our track record for unlocking potential, accessing stock off-market, and working in JV means we are extremely well-positioned.
Sticking with sustainability, we are pleased to launch today our Social Impact Strategy, which builds on both our statement of intent and our existing community strategy and aligns with our D&I ambitions. We're focused on creating a lasting positive social impact in our communities, and our strategy is built around four key pillars, focused on health and inclusion, championing diverse skills and accessible employment, supporting the growth of local business and social enterprise, while connecting people with urban nature. As ever with GPE, there's lots of detail that sits behind the strategy, including clear commitments and targets to ensuring accountability, and I'd encourage you to take a look at the document on our website.
Finally, following our successful ESG-linked RCF issue in early 2020, we published our wider Sustainable Finance Framework over the summer, providing us with even more options to further diversify our funding sources as we invest for the future. Overall, plenty going on with our commitments to financial strength, flexibility and sustainability unquestionable. Now back to Toby for a few comments on the market.
Thank you, Nick. Let's turn then and look at conditions in our markets. It's clear to us that recovery is building momentum. We can expect healthy GVA growth in London, running ahead of the U.K. average and driving decent office employment growth, as you can see on the chart top right. Looking at the chart bottom left, it's no surprise that active demand from occupiers is rising, up 55% since September 2020, as is space under offer, the blue bar's up 94%, with the vast majority in Grade A space and pre-lettings. Looked at in aggregate on the right-hand chart, after the lows of 2020, total take-up has recovered to within touching distance of the 10-year average, shown by the dotted line. On the other side of the equation, the supply of Prime new space will remain tight for some time to come.
The chart on the right shows that we think speculative completions, or the hatched areas, will average only 3.6 million sq ft per annum between 2022 and 2025, versus an average take-up of Prime space of 8.9 million sq ft per annum, so generally supportive conditions for quality offices. There's also momentum building in retail markets too. Just as a reminder, retail is 21% of our books, down from a recent peak of 28% in 2019. Whilst it's still challenging, absent further lockdowns, we think we could be at or past the market trough, principally because we're seeing both inquiry levels from retailers and footfall improving, as you can see on the chart bottom left, with the West End, shown by the black line, on a faster pace of recovery since June than the U.K. High Street, shown by the pink line.
Don't forget Crossrail will provide a further boost when it opens during first half of 2022. Turning to the investment market, activity is recovering here too, with GBP 1.2 billion traded since our results in May, up on last year, but we're still way behind pre-COVID levels. As you can see on the right-hand chart, with supply relatively flat and equity capital searching for opportunities steady at circa GBP 40 billion, there's still GBP 6 looking for every GBP 1 of opportunity shown by the pink line. Add in the fact there's no distress, and we think pricing will remain strong, making accretive acquisitions an ongoing challenge. That said, our deal flow is good, as you heard from Nick earlier, and so we see no reason to soften our investment hurdles, meaning we'll maintain our discipline.
We can, because we have had, and continue to have, plenty of opportunity to invest internally. With the recovery well underway, we are seeing more green traffic lights for rents, with only the slightly elevated vacancy rates that are red. Even here, Grade A vacancy is low, and so we expect office rents to rise, with Prime to outperform. For rents across our portfolio, in May, shown bottom left, we forecast a range of down 2.5% to up 2.5%. Six months in, and we are towards the top of the range at +1.6%, with offices performing well so far up 2.3%. As a result, we're upgrading our forecasts for the year overall, and you can see we're now expecting an upturn of +2%-+5%.
We're also marginally more positive for yields than in May, with retail yields now expected to flatten following three years of weakness. Overall, we think the consistently heavy weight of money and improving sentiment should be supportive for a while, particularly for the best assets. Next, I wanna give you a brief operational update and some more color on our strong leasing and Flex growth, where in both areas, we're benefiting from a flight to quality. Starting with retail, where conditions remain tough, but are clearly improving, by way of context, our retail ERVs have fallen 21% since their peak in 2018. In the first half, we let GBP 8.7 million, up almost 6x versus last year, beating ERVs by a substantial 11.1% margin, all of it in W1, including the West End's largest retail letting so far this year.
Early signs of a recovery. I've already mentioned the strength of our office leasing in the first half, GBP 18.3 million, up almost 4x versus H1 2020, with a really healthy ERV beat of 9.3%. I talked earlier about the vast majority of office demand being for Prime spaces, and that's exactly the sweet spot we've dialed into in 95% of our lettings. 20% were in our Flex spaces, another sweet spot where it's increasingly clear that more and more occupiers of sub 10,000 sq ft units are looking for exactly what our Flex product is offering. We're growing Flex. It now totals 286,000 sq ft, up 12% since September 2020 and representing 15% of our office book. We've successfully rolled out our first Flex+ full-service offer at Dufour's Place.
We're fully let at an average of GBP 191/sq ft, 10.5% ahead of ERV, and on an average lease length of 2.5 years. We have another six spaces in the market totaling 35,000 sq ft. In a matter of weeks since launch, we're already 65% let or under offer and breaking new rent records along the way. Looking at the aggregated performance of our Flex product over the past year, shown in the table, you can see that whether it's our Flex or Flex+ offer, we're generating net rents and relative cash flows way ahead of traditional Cat A alternatives and for not a great deal of extra risk. Where next for Flex?
With the support of strongly positive feedback from our customers and a deep pool of demand for us to attract, we're appraising a further 217,000 sq ft within the portfolio, and if we convert it all, our Flex offer will total 27% of our office book. Meanwhile, we've strengthened our customer teams and are working hard to further improve our operating efficiencies. There's more to come from us in this exciting, dynamic, and economically rewarding part of the office market. We've also been crystallizing value through asset sales with the disposal of 160 Old Street, another great example of working an asset through to maturity and turning our hard work into a cash surplus to be recycled into better opportunities elsewhere.
Looking at the graph, you can see we bought the land for GBP 30.6 million, generated GBP 19 million through the design and planning process, invested a further GBP 83 million to create imaginative Prime offices, which we largely pre-let to Turner Broadcasting. We sold for GBP 181.5 million, off a yield marginally over 4%, all up a surplus of GBP 68 million or 59%, and most relevantly, getting out of a 2.2% prospective IRR. As ever, we're regularly reviewing our assets' expected performance, and today, we have circa GBP 300 million of further potential sales under review. Now some of these proceeds will find their way into our significant development program where we have a strong platform for growth. Having finished one scheme, One Newman Street, during the period, we now have one committed scheme, 50 Finsbury Square.
Four near-term starts from January next year, totaling more than 900,000 sq ft and a further four medium-term schemes, bringing the total to nine, covering 1.4 million sq ft or 32% of the portfolio. Turning first to 50 Finsbury Square. You'll recall we pre-let all of the offices to Inmarsat during the half on a 20-year lease, some 11% ahead of ERV. With completion forecast for Q4 2022, we fully expect to be net zero carbon and are currently projecting a surplus of some 39% and a healthy development yield of 6.4%. Turning to our four near-term schemes and some significant progress since May. They're all Prime with exemplary sustainability credentials offering up strong growth potential. Since the finals in May, we've obtained planning for 2 Aldermanbury Square, top left.
We've submitted new applications at both New City Court, top right, and Minerva House, bottom left, and we've gained a resolution to grant consent at French Railways House in Piccadilly. All up, 916,000 sq ft, generating a 118% net area gain, a rental increase of circa 219% through investing GBP 830 million and all will be net zero carbon. Let's sum up on our activities and consider where next for GPE. Last year we were a net investor, including CapEx, to the tune of GBP 66 million. Far this year, our sales receipts are greater than CapEx to the tune of GBP 53 million. For the remainder of the year, we have significant investment to make across the portfolio.
In our development book, we have our committed scheme to finish and further prep work across our near-term projects with a likely start at 2 Aldermanbury Square in January. Across portfolio management, we've plenty of leasing to be delivering and growth to generate across our Flex offering. We'll continue to hunt in the investment markets for new raw material as well as execute sales, so as to recycle capital for more return elsewhere. Running through all our activities will be our focus on sustainability as a strategic imperative on the creation of Prime quality space and on our relentless drive to satisfy our customers' changing needs. To conclude with our outlook, and as you've heard, our message to you today is that GPE is full of opportunity. Challenges? Yes, of course, but ones that we can more than meet.
Because first, we have clear strategic priorities built around a single market focus with deep knowledge, a long track record of capital management discipline, and an enduring belief in London's exciting future as a dominant global capital city. Plus, we are evolving our strategy, adjusting to customers' changing needs, delivering them sustainable spaces and sector-leading customer service. Because second, we expect the recovery to gather momentum with supportive economic indicators and encouraging demand for Prime London real estate from both occupiers and investors. Because third, we have numerous portfolio opportunities in our development book, in our Flex spaces, both of which are successfully appealing to today's deepest sources of customer demand. Don't forget, 92% of the book is near Crossrail. It's opening next year. We'll add new opportunities through our focused acquisition strategy enabled through our strong balance sheet.
Because fourth, we have the magic ingredients of a powerful collaborative culture and a great team with a clear purpose and unifying values, supporting our communities and our people, delivering exceptional engagement scores, and with an experienced senior team. To sum up, GPE is in great shape, ready to grasp the opportunities we've laid out for you today, and we remain confident in our outlook. Thank you very much for listening.
Thank you indeed. What we're gonna do now is give you the chance to ask us any questions that you wish. To help us do that, we have our trusted compere, Mr. Stephen Burrows, who's on standby. He's monitoring the chat, and will also field questions directly, and we can then see how we go.
While you're thinking of questions, just worth reiterating a couple of the principal messages that we really wanted to get across to you this morning. One, recovery is clearly building momentum, and as I say, there are challenges out there still, but we feel that, there's definitely been a corner turned. Demand is up strongly, under offers are up strongly, and supply remains tight. We're long-term believers in London. We think it's still as powerful as ever, but clearly it's changing, and clearly the best assets are going to be those which outperform. We're hitting all of our key occupier themes, as you heard. Flex is going to grow. GBP 900-odd million of internal investment for us to make through our development program and refurbishments. Lots of income upside and fundamentally, a confident outlook. Who would like to start?
Stevie, do we have any in the chat?
Not yet, but if you'd like to either raise your hands, I'll come to you directly and you can ask your question live, or please could you put your question in the Q&A function, and then we will answer it. I've got one question in from Rob Jones. Thank you, Rob. He says, "Flex, if the 217,000 sq ft was converted to Flex, it would be 27% of the office portfolio. Do you have an upper limit that you'd feel comfortable at?
Thanks, Rob. Good question. Stephen, maybe you've come to thinking about some of the challenges of conversion in a moment. Just as an overarching comment on Flex and the ambition we have here, Rob, we're pretty clear in our minds that the smaller end of the market is moving in the direction of Flex without question. We think it makes complete sense that our customers want us to do the heavy lifting for them, rather than them having to do it themselves. It's quite possible that we'll see the majority of the market for sub-10,000 sq ft units moving in this direction. The extent to which you layer on service for them is a moot point. We think that if you're not in this game, you're gonna need to be.
We clearly have been for a number of years and doing it very successfully. Stephen, in relation to some of the specifics around the portfolio, do you wanna think about that for a moment?
Hi. Morning. Yeah, I mean, first thing I'd say is just a reminder what our Flex product is actually. Flex is fitted ready to go space. Then we have our Flex+ product, which is where we're layering on additional services. If you think something akin to a serviced office, but difference here is you've got your own front door, your own privacy, your opportunity to brand. As you can see from the map that Rich just put on the screen, sort of centrally located across London. Just talking about the challenges and opportunities within the portfolio. First thing, I mean, the portfolio is incredibly well suited to this Flex model. As Toby said, you know, we believe the default will be sub 10,000 sq ft for this product.
80% or just about 80% of our spaces in our portfolio are sub-10,000 sq ft, so it's sort of ready to go. One of the sort of challenges, I wouldn't say a frustration, but you know, it's getting hold of it, getting access to that product, and getting access to that space. Because we have leases in place already with our existing occupiers. Where we are getting space back and where we get the opportunity, we have the ambition to convert that space to our Flex product. That's what our customers are really telling us they want. The other thing, I'd just make a quick point. You know, we are seeing larger inquiries as well.
You know, we talk about the sub-10,000, but we're starting to see more requirements larger than 10,000 for this very same product. You know, the market is certainly and our customers demanding more from us and moving in that direction.
Just to add to that, Rob, you can see here, as Rich has got on the slide, clearly the economics are supportive. There are, as I mentioned in the text there, operating efficiencies that we still have to refine and further efficiencies to grab. We're strengthening the team to help us deliver on those ambitions. This is a part of the market that is a really interesting opportunity for us, and for limited extra risk, so we think it's well worth it. Okay, Steve, back with you.
Yep. The next question is from Marcus. He says, "How are your valuers approaching the more volatile income streams within your Flex product, i.e. the variable service income?
Nick, would you like to have a go at that one?
Sure. Morning, Marcus. I mean, I think there are three things that I would say, one, the valuers are trying to split out, as you've identified, the two different kind of income streams and, understandably placing different yields on what you, I guess you described as the real estate income stream, and the service income stream. In terms of the volatility point, I think one of the things I would highlight is that if you look at the Flex+ deals that we've done, they've been an average lease term of 2.5 years of the Flex, which is fitted out a little bit higher than that. Actually, the lease duration is not materially lower.
However, one of the things that we would experience on floor plates of that size, and typically we've been doing deals in the 3,000 sq ft-10,000 sq ft floor plates. I guess the third thing I'd say is they're clearly having to make different assumptions around a void and releasing of the space when it comes back, but also CapEx, and there's clearly a higher assumed CapEx on our Flex space than on our traditional space. So hopefully that gives you a little bit of color. We clearly set out in the book both the differential in terms of the rents we're getting, but also the relative cash flow, and certainly something we'd love to, we can talk through that in more detail offline.
I think there is clear protocols that were emerging within the valuation market around Flex, but equally, it's still relatively early stage. I think our understanding is that the consistent approach is being taken across the market about seeking to value these assets.
The only other thing I would add to that, as to what Nick has said, is the higher income we're generating per foot is very helpful in offsetting any perceived shorter income negativity around that. Secondly, we're finding our customers are I wouldn't say not batting an eyelid at the extra rent that we're asking for for the extra fit out we're putting in there, but they are certainly not they're not as price sensitive around the rent per foot as you might imagine, not least because we're taking so much of the agro away from them, firstly. Secondly, as we've shown many times, and I think there's a slide in the back of the book, rent as a component of overhead in London businesses remains fractional. It's 7%-8%.
It's much more important to put your people in the best quality spaces you can. Having removed from them all of the aggro of their real estate, it makes complete sense for people to move in this direction, which is why we're seeing it grow so quickly. Stevie.
Okay, next question's from Chris Fremantle. I appreciate you talk a lot about vacancy rates in Grade A space, but overall, London vacancy is still rising based on Q3 figures. Do you get the sense that broader vacancy is peaking?
Thank you. Thanks, Chris. I'm not sure we see the same data points across the whole market, and maybe Mark, you want to come in on this in a second. I think we think that Prime vacancies are actually falling at the minute, and we've certainly seen areas of the market where they have been moving. We've even seen in the West End, thanks, Rich. They are clearly coming down. As you know, 75%-odd of our book is West End. Mark, anything you wanted to add?
Yeah. Thanks, Toby. Thanks, Chris. I mean, what I would say is that vacancy, overall vacancy has come down by about 1% from 9%- 8%. In terms of that Grade A vacancy, that is also on a downward trajectory. I think the reason for that is this continued flight to quality that occupiers are looking for the best space, the most sustainable space, and all the goodies that you want out of a best-in-class building. The interesting thing, actually, Chris, is that in terms of the under offers through Q3, which we think are about 3.5 million sq ft, 88% of that is Grade A or development stock pipeline.
If you look forward to the next three years, as Toby showed in his slide, looking at every single scheme as we do on a six-monthly basis, we think that there's about 3.6 million sq ft coming through on an average annual basis, compared to a take-up of 8.9 million sq ft of Grade A space over the last five years. We think that shortage will continue.
Thank you, Chris. Stevie.
Okay, we've got a hand raised from Oliver . I'm gonna go to Oliver to allow him to ask his question.
Excellent. Thanks for the presentation. I was just wondering if you could share, your criteria on the space in your portfolio, like Dufour's Place, that you're looking to now transition into Flex product. Are these, in buildings that will eventually be transitioned into your traditional development pipeline, or is the plan that these will become Flex assets in perpetuity?
Yeah, great question, Oliver. Maybe there's an opportunity here to bring Andy in in a second to think about development, and I'll explain why. The way we're looking at the business today is essentially in two dominant pieces. On the one hand, we have our repositioning game plan, which is essentially taking raw material and making it fundamentally more attractive. That sometimes involves ground up development, and it sometimes involves high intervention refurbishment, but it's essentially, you know, capital intensive repositioning of assets, and Hanover Square is a great example of that. The other end is an operating business where we've always had an operating business. It's just getting more intensive with customer service absolutely at its forefront, and Flex is part of that.
Within that operating business, we have the smaller end market, and we've described that this morning as sub-10,000 units, where we think Flex is going to be, if not already is, the default that our occupiers and customers are looking for. By definition, therefore, Oliver, you know, we're really defining within that operating platform, smaller spaces, but there are other things in there. Rich, perhaps you can go to my, I think it's slide four, where I talk about the key themes that occupiers are looking for. The next one, please. Thank you. Top left. As we think about Flex, it's by definition smaller, but it also needs to have amenity provision.
We need to be able to show our customers this is a building that is more than just office space for them. Dufour's Place, if you haven't seen it, is our first example of a Flex+ offer. We'd happily show you it because it's a great example of how we think the customer of tomorrow needs to be serviced and kept happy. As I say, as Stephen has referenced, actually, we may well find in bigger spaces that the service we're offering begins to drift that way as well. Andy, if you think about our developments and that side of the business as we go forward, lots of opportunity for us to deliver amenity and so on. Maybe you'd just like to comment on that.
Sure. Well, I think you've seen the increasing trend of moving towards that and at 50 Finsbury Square, and it was a key attractor for Inmarsat, was actually all of the amenity that we put into the space there. We had the very attractive and enlivened reception area, the town hall space at the base of the atrium, the exciting roof terrace and pavilion at the top of the building. We're increasingly seeing in 2 Aldermanbury Square, which we're hoping to make a start in the early part of next year. It's again a similar theme. We've got terraces on all of the office floors. We've got a really amazing roof terrace with views over central London, attractive reception, and it's about thinking about the flexibility and future use of that building.
As we go through our design process, we increasingly think about the whole offer from a customer experience perspective.
Thanks, Oliver.
Thank you.
Stevie.
Sticking with development, I've got a question on supply chain. How are you dealing with supply issues and delays? How much of the committed products are they delayed? And what's the carry costs of those delays? A broad question on the impact of the supply chain.
All good ones, too. Andy.
Well, the good news is we are not delayed with 50 Finsbury. We're probably now well into the 90% in terms of cost fixed. We work very closely with our supply chain, involved them very early on in the design process and procurement process. What we have found is clearly this year it has been around materials, it has been difficult. You've got the sort of the backlog from COVID shutdowns as production starts to ramp up again, the well-known transportation issues. We found getting some of the wood for the bleacher seating at the base of 50 was challenging. Working with our supply chain, we found a way through that, so that hasn't caused us any delay. What we're seeing now is that certainly the sort of the spike in material pricing is leveling off.
I think the next area we need to watch is labor. What is quite interesting at the moment is with the main contractors is the amount of workload that they have secured. For the next couple of years, their order books are probably less full than they have been at previous times in the cycle. They are keen to absorb some of this cost rising to actually make sure they've got their order books full. It's something we watch. We're obviously concerned about it, but at the moment we're comfortable with where we are on it.
Dan, can I just perhaps ask you a similar question? I mean, you've spent a lot of your recent career in large Central London development like Andy. Any observations from you on that question and how perhaps we can think about it going forward?
Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, provision of service and, appealing to what customers want out of buildings, which is offered by obviously the Flex provision and the developments as well, is absolutely key to what we have to include. I think, occupiers these days are getting even more, discerning about that. I think as people return from fairly sort of troubled times over the last 18 months, they expect even more from their buildings. We have to have that all as a benchmark for everything we do, both in the new buildings that we provide, but also in the Flex space, in the smaller, more managed space that we provide for occupiers. It's a combined effort across the business.
Yeah. I absolutely agree. I think the other thing that a point you made to me last week was that, you know, Thinking about supply chain issues, we don't necessarily need to fit everything out and put in new buildings, the Cat A in all of the spaces. We may well choose there's an economic advantage to not doing Cat A across all of the space to speed up delivery times and to reduce some of that risk.
Yeah. I think it's always disheartening when you fit out a building to a Cat A specification you just developed, and the place looks wonderful and then an occupier comes in and refits it for their own space, and a lot of the air-conditioning gets moved, a lot of the stuff that's gone under the ceilings, if you have ceilings in those particular buildings, gets wasted because once it's moved, a lot of it has to be thrown away. Being more creative, fitting out part of the building, perhaps in different specifications on different floors to appeal to different types of occupiers, but only doing that in, say, a third of it and then the rest of the Cat A equipment being stored offsite in the building saves a huge amount of wasted cost.
Actually it's much more flexible and shortens the timescale for the occupier when they come in order they can fit the space out. It actually works for both owner and for occupier.
Ways that we can address the question absolutely as we look forward. Also, making sure that we stick with the very best in the supply chain, who have the deepest reach is also very valuable. Thank you. Stevie.
Okay. Next question is from Simon Robson -Brown, who asks, "I understand that GPE's green financing has corporate responsibility targets that need to be met. Can you review progress on these targets and whether the cost of the financing has changed as a result of the target testing?"
Okay. Thank you. Janine, would you like to touch first of all on general progress around our sustainability, particularly maybe just touch on our 2030 ambitions? Nick, any comments around the sustainable finance framework, perhaps?
Sure. Thank you, Toby. We're making good progress against our net zero carbon roadmap. If we start with our development portfolio, we've all been able to say that our first net zero carbon building will be 50 Finsbury Square. That's sort of bringing forward what were our sort of net zero carbon ambitions for our development portfolio by some margin. Largely I think that's been due to our ESG-linked RCF and also the impact of our Decarbonization Fund, which has really driven performance through the development team. If you then sort of look at our existing portfolio, we've made good progress on our carbon footprint, but I'd just sort of say that you do have to look at carbon footprint figures with some caution.
We need a long-term trend, and our carbon footprint will go up and down depending on business activities. Of course, energy intensity did go down, and so we did hit our KPI for energy intensity, embodied carbon and biodiversity, which are the three ESG-linked targets within our RCF facility.
Simon, there are two elements of our financing being green and sustainable. One is the RCF. We hit the measures first time around. As you know, the margin swing around that is not huge. It's 2.5 basis points. But crucially, the benefit of that margin swing we contribute to community causes. So it's being deployed for the benefit of our broader communities. The second thing that you will have seen is that we issued over the summer.
A Sustainable Finance Framework which sits alongside our ESG-linked RCF, which means that were we to go to either the U.S. private placement market, the sterling bond market, or from both markets, we're already prepped to be able to issue on a green basis. We haven't done that as yet because as you'll see in the results, we've got more than GBP 480 million of firepower. I think we'll be using a good proportion of that to fund sustainable developments. Just picking up on a question that I see on the chat from Tom, where are we prepared to take leverage? We've operated over the last 10 years on a 10%-35% range.
Each time we've been outside that, we've either raised equity if we've been above 35%, or if we've been below 10%, we've returned. We've shown an analysis that would see LTV rising to 39%. That's not until 2027, and I think a lot could change between then and now. I would be comfortable, I think the board would be comfortable, to see leverage moving up from where it is as we invest into our own portfolio and through acquisitions. I think given the opportunity that we have to invest within our own portfolio, funding that development with 1% coupon, ESG link financing is hopefully a very sensible thing to be doing.
Crucially, I would also say, if we were to find opportunities outside of the group, that potentially would take leverage above our comfort levels, we wouldn't rule out coming back to the equity markets. We've clearly given back more than GBP 600 million over the recent years where we felt we had more, and I think that's been demonstrable. We did have more than we needed, and I think the balance sheet's in good shape now. As ever, if there are opportunities that we think will add value for our shareholders into our business, and would take leverage to levels above our comfort levels, we would consider coming back to the equity markets. I don't see that happening in very short order, but you never know.
Let's see what emerges in the investment market for us over the course of the next 12-24 months.
Thank you, Nick. Stevie, engineer.
Okay. Sticking with the investment market, Matt Saperia asks, appreciate you have plenty of organic growth opportunities, but interesting to see on slide 13 that 75% of the GBP 1.2 billion traded since May was overpriced or mispriced. Any thoughts on where, what others are mispricing, and are there any trends in terms of the type of asset that is being mispriced?
Okay. Robin, perhaps you'd like to have a go at that. Just by way of context, we've talked at length over the last few years, and frankly, since our last major acquisitions campaign about the relative merits of internal versus external investment, and it's always been central to our strategy to have lots of internal opportunity. As we've referenced this morning, we do GBP 900 million broadly in the context of a group with assets of GBP 2.5 billion, is a big lever. It's a big mover of our future returns. Having said all of that, the opportunity in the market is always there for us and, finding them is gonna be challenging. We will find things. Robin, any reflections on that?
Yeah. Morning, Matthew. I think you know looking at the slide we've got here with the fair value, I mean, would you qualify that it's only a very small sample size. There's eight deals that we looked at in sort of micro-analysis and bid on over the last six months. What I think you'll see is if you look at the correlation between what we're looking at today, which is about a third Flex, a third development and a third value add, and as Nick said, the near fair value assets are all Flex. What you can read across is perhaps the overpriced and mispriced have fallen outside our Flex search into the value add and development buckets.
I think what we're coming across in the market is obviously a big weight of capital focusing on London. The component I think which perhaps some investors are missing or looking at differently to us is they don't have the clarity of data on CapEx, the challenges of development, how difficult planning is. We've got a true live data, and I think we're sort of probably tighter on our underwriting on those more challenging opportunities. Perhaps a very overpriced piece is really being driven from the build-to-core strategy that we're seeing some overseas investors start doing where they can't acquire the best in the class assets, so they're willing to build, and they've got a different return metrics to us.
I think we're coming across different groups of capital entering our space, and I think that the area outside Flex is where we're most challenged. Flex, as you can see, is the opportunity where I think we're coming closer into being able to acquire. Hopefully that answers your question.
Matt, is that good with that?
I'm sure he is. He's on the chat.
Okay, good. Stephen.
Okay, next question. How do you see the polarization playing out between Grade A, being Flex and green, and non-Grade A buildings in terms of rental growth and yield movements in the medium term, i.e., the former up and the latter down?
Yeah. Well, I think it's, that's a good question. Do we know who that question came from, Stevie?
No, unfortunately not.
Okay. It's a very good question, but it's also touching on a central theme, actually, of what we're talking about and the way that we're positioning GPE. That central theme has been running for a while, this idea of a bifurcation between the best quality spaces and those that are in some way disadvantaged, be that their sustainability ain't good enough, the layout isn't good enough, maybe even the transport connectivity isn't good enough. These have been themes that we've been playing now for a long time, and I don't think that theme is anywhere near done. I think it's got a long way to go.
That's why all of the things that we are investing in and that we're choosing to having improved either trade on or avoid buying in the first place are those where we don't think the long-term prospects play sufficiently into those themes. Thank you, Rich. If you look at our active portfolio, management portfolio or development pipeline, every single one of those assets, bar none, will hit all of those key themes. You know, flexibility and service, et cetera, are being certainly turned up in these themes. Sustainability, we turned up a while ago, but that's getting ever more important, as Janine talked about earlier on. I think it's difficult to enumerate the difference between those that hit the themes and those that don't, but there is going to be a difference.
The growth trajectory between those two paths will be significant on a compound basis over many years. It's absolutely essential to be delivering the best quality space that hit the themes and avoiding those that don't. One of the beauties of being a focused real estate business is that we only do one market, this one. It happens to be, we think, still long term, one of the best markets on the planet, and we will focus on the best bits of it. There's a really great long-term opportunity for us to continue along those theme lines. Thank you. Stevie, back with you.
That was actually Marc Mozzi. He's sent me a little message. Last question I suspect on the one that we have going at the moment is, are your development starts, and I'm presuming this is within the near term, still within their earlier start dates and no delays there either? Is the question.
Andy, that feels like one for you.
Thank you. Short answer is yes, they are. Some are still subject to planning, so we are dealing with various planning authorities, particularly, say, at Minerva, where the application's just gone in. The other thing I would also just like to add, following up on an earlier question, is around sort of occupier appeal and net zero carbon progress is sustainability. Thinking about Aldermanbury Square, on there, we've worked really hard on the net zero carbon work, and we are aiming to potentially hit or even exceed our 2030 target on that because we feel it's moving fast. We could be there five years early. I think that is a key thing in terms of occupier appeal going forward.
The only thing I would add. Thanks, Andy. The only thing I'd add to that is at French Railways, we do have a resolution to grant, but we do need landlord consent for us under a head lease arrangement that we have there. And that's, you know, the subject of an ongoing discussion. We're very excited by particularly the ones at the top there, where we're closest to being able to get going. Aldermanbury, one of our largest ever commitments, one of our best ever buildings without question, with a potential start in a matter of weeks. Okay. Thank you. Stevie.
Further question is whether we have assets that are gonna be left behind, typically raw material or new developments. Are they still gonna be an opportunity because of the cost it takes to renovate? I think this is a question around stranded assets and in the market and within our own portfolio generally.
Yeah. Maybe Robin, you might want to reflect on that in a moment. Just as an overview, this is what we do. This essence of this business is about getting hold of, in some way, assets that need love and attention and giving it the love and attention. Be that sorting out a sustainability question, repositioning it in some fashion for a customer's demands, and that is the essence of what we do. We really do want to end up owning opportunities such as that, and as we've described this morning, have lots in our existing portfolio that give us potential to improve. That's why we own them.
Indeed, I'd go so far as to say we are gonna be willing to own assets which do not hit the sustainability criteria under the EPC regulations because we can improve them. That journey, that opportunity to improve them and make them ultimately fit for purpose is what we are in business to deliver. Robin, anything from you on that?
David, I think it's one of our key focus points, is where can we find opportunities in the market to help or work with owners or buildings that need to be moved forward into a modern-day sustainability requirements. It's the realization of most owners isn't there yet, but they're beginning to, it's beginning to surface, and we really believe that there's a future pipeline for us, and where we can invest externally out of our business is gonna be with existing owners.
Now, it might be in joint ventures, which we all, you know, everyone knows that GPE has a long track record of success with, where we step in and work with an overseas, typically overseas or perhaps less resourced owner of assets and help them with their strategy to get to the EPC and other sustainability requirements. As a macro point, we think perhaps up to 80% of the London market is gonna fall short of EPC regulations. Clearly a lot of that is in good ownership and will get fixed, but that still leaves a lot of area for us to explore. It will become a growing theme. You know, it's a theme internally, but we've yet to see the rest of the market really notice it and realize it. It has valuation consequences.
I think existing owners need to realize, and they will, that they need to spend money on a building. Once that's set in, then we'll be able to sort of work with them or buy from them to make that conversion. It's a really exciting space for us, and it's firmly on the radar, and you should hear a lot more from us in that over the next few years.
Thanks, Robin. Stevie, probably time for one or two more.
We've got one further from Simon Robson-Brown, who asks, "Could you touch on your yield disclosure? Your yields look quite low. All else being equal, where can these initial yields move to if things go according to business plan?"
Okay, we have a yield talk in the back, Simon. What I suggest is that why don't we deal with that one. Stevie, maybe you could deal with that offline with Simon to take him through how that yield talk works. Essentially, our yields are where they should be relative to market and after all, it's CBRE who value the assets for our shareholders. We're in their hands when it comes to the capitalization rates they put on the assets.
The only other thing I would say in relation to yields is clearly, there has been a degree of yield contraction in London, especially at the Prime end, and we forecast that a little while ago, and we think there is still room for further moves in Prime yields, especially given, thank you, Rich, especially given the improving outlook for rents. So, we think you'll see some of that feeding into Prime assets from here.
Okay, I think we've probably got one last question, time for one last question, and this is from Alex Ross, who asks, "With construction costs projected to further increase over the next 3-4 years, would you expect that to necessitate Grade A rental growth on a similar projection, you need to partially offset with some yield compression for development viability?"
Not just yield compression, Alex, but your point is valid, but also net area gains. One of the ways of making development work, as we all know, is by finding net area that you can build that wasn't there before. If you look at the four near-term projects, perhaps we can just put those up on the screen, please, Rich. The four near-term projects that we're due to deliver, the one with the photographs at the back end of my development section, you will see that the area gain is somewhere around about 119% for those four projects. That's clearly, thank you. That's clearly 118%.
That's clearly a big uptick in the amount of space to develop, and that is a key component of making an acceptable return through what is quite a risky process, let's be clear. Andy, anything you wanted to add to that?
I think you've also got shorter void periods and better chances of pre-letting when you're delivering the best as well, so that also then helps improve your returns.
Yeah. Very good. Okay, everybody. I think we've reached the hour. I'm sure you've got lots of other things you need to do today. If I could just sign off, please, with thanks again for joining us. I hope that was helpful. Lots of good detail in there. The main messages, I think, are really very clear. We're hitting all of our customer themes. We're leasing really well, and we expect that theme and trend to continue. The portfolio is full of opportunity, as you've heard this morning, not just in development and not just internally. We've got things in the market that are interesting for us to look at. Bucket loads of financial strength for us to be able to access these opportunities. A fabulous team.
You met some of them today, but clearly behind the people you've seen today is an organization that's operating at its full potential and lots of opportunity for growth there. We believe in London. We certainly haven't written off London. We think the stories around offices as being out of human need were not right. We were very clear around that, and we believe the office has a key part to play in corporate life going forward. We have a confident outlook, and we're looking forward to the next few years with optimism. Thank you very much for listening, and see you soon.