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Earnings Call: H2 2023

Aug 24, 2023

Operator

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Hays Preliminary Results for the year ending 30th of June 2023, webcast and conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be the question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press star one one on your telephone keypad. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Alternatively, you can submit your questions via the webcast. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to a speaker today, Alistair Cox. Please go ahead.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

Morning, everybody. Welcome to our FY 2023 results. I think you'd all recognize that it's been a year full of challenges, and we've been incredibly busy navigating through what have been worsening economic conditions. But despite this, we've still delivered a resilient performance. We've grown our fees to record levels, we've cut costs, and we've reduced our overall headcount, but we've also protected our longer-term investments, and we've continued to position Hays as a leader in the most attractive recruitment and talent services markets globally. The human story behind all of these results, though, is that we helped over 300,000 people find their next career move, and we helped many thousands of organizations find the skills that they need to thrive. Our year is really summed up by looking at our fee growth.

It was up 15% in the first quarter, but then down 2% in the final quarter. With such a rapid reversal, that meant that we had to be very quick in our actions to increase pricing, while at the same time managing capacity downwards and focusing the business on productivity. However, just as we said that we would do at the interims, we increased our profits and our conversion rate in the second half over the first half. We also maintained our track record on cash management with 101% cash conversion. Let's turn to the detail, and as usual, I'll take you through the operating review. James will then cover the detailed financials and current trading, and I'll finish off with a strategy update. We'll then have plenty of time for Q&A.

As you know, for several years now, we've been actively repositioning Hays to be right at the heart of the most attractive labor markets worldwide. That means higher value jobs in areas characterized by skill shortages delivered in structurally immature regions. Those attributes, in turn, allow us to increase our own pricing power in a skill-short world, as well as earning a margin on more highly paid jobs. I think the benefit of this strategy is crystal clear in these results, as the pricing power we've leveraged is behind the group record fees up 6% to GBP 1.295 billion. Our strength was consistent throughout the year, with record months in September, November, and then March, and we also delivered individual fee records in 21 countries around the world.

Growing our temp and contracting business is a major part of our strategy, and that was also a key driver, with fees up 9% and activity broadly stable at good levels right through the second half of the year. Perm, however, became harder as the year progressed. The first half was up 12% and the second half down 6%, as confidence in economies waned and time to hire processes lengthened. We should, however, recognize that in a tougher world, all of our fee growth came from improved margins and mix, with average volumes down to 2% in temp and down 8% in perm. In terms of key sectors, our largest specialism of technology grew by 6% to a record GBP 333 million.

Accountancy and finance increased by 9%, and engineering grew by an excellent 21%, and in doing so, it became our third largest global specialism. Direct and indirect outsourcing fees with our enterprise clients were up 10%, and we continue to gain market share in this segment with a great pipeline of further opportunities ahead. As you'll recall, we started FY 2023 on the back of strong fee growth as the world reopened post the pandemic, and we'd increased consultant headcount significantly in FY 2022 to meet demand at the time. However, the sharp deceleration that we then witnessed in FY 2023 meant that the number of roles filled per consultant declined by 12% last year, and we had negative profit leverage as headcount growth was ahead of fee growth as the market tightened.

We responded quickly, though, and we reduced headcount in most markets, but particularly so in the United States, here in the UK and Ireland, Australia, and in China. Year-end headcount was down 5% and aligned to underlying market demand. Our average headcount, which was up 17% in the first half, increased by only 1% in the second half, and it will decrease year-on-year in our first half in our new year. We did, however, take a very conscious decision to protect our recent investments in key strategic areas as well as our infrastructure, and James will cover that later. Finally, another year of excellent cash generation underpinned high levels of cash return, with GBP 165 million in core and special dividends paid, plus GBP 75 million worth of shares repurchased in the year.

We still ended the year with over GBP 136 million in the bank, and given confidence in our strategy and our strong financial position, the board proposes an increase in the core dividend of 5% together with a further GBP 35.6 million cash return in the form of a special dividend, in line with our long-established distribution strategy. Turning then to our individual operations. While we delivered fee records all over the world, Germany was our standout performer. Fees were up 19% in what is already a massive business, and operating profit increased by 29%, or on a working day adjusted basis, by 36%.

We delivered this growth despite German GDP declining between September and June, and I think that highlights the structural nature of demand for skilled contractors and temps, driven by acute skill shortages in Europe's largest economy. Activity levels in these segments were broadly consistent through the second half, with a greater number of contract extensions offsetting slightly fewer new assignments. Our largest area of contracting produced its own record, with fees up 23% and record numbers of contractors working. Temp grew by 12%, working day adjusted, and our perm business was excellent, up 22%. Sector-wise, engineering was also excellent, also up 22%, including strong performances in automotive, as well as the energy and renewable sector, where we won several MSP contracts in all of the major energy utilities. Our largest sector in Germany, technology, grew by 10%, and accountancy and finance was up 26%.

What's notable in Germany is that in the last two years, we've added over 3,000 contractors and temps to our volumes. That's effectively the same as creating what would be a top 5 business in the German white-collar, non-perm recruitment market. But we've done all of that organically, and I think that shows the power of our brand and its relevance in Germany's economy today. That's the proof of our ability to further grow our market leadership, and that's why I'm convinced that we have decades of structural growth potential ahead as we continue to open up that market, and we are ahead of our aspiration to at least double Germany's profits by FY 2027. Moving now to the UK and Ireland. Fees increased by 1%, but profit was down 34%.

Markets slowed sharply through the year, from growth of 11% in our first quarter to -7% in our final quarter, with perm hit particularly hard in the second half. Again, our higher average headcount, which was up 7% year-on-year, drove negative profit leverage, but we took swift action to reduce heads, and we ended the year with consultant headcount down 11% and aligned to current market demand. Temp fees were up 4%, but perm was down 3%. Growth was entirely driven by improved fee margins and higher salaries, as temp and perm volumes were down 6% and 13% respectively. Fees in the private sector were down 1%, and the public sector was up 7%. By sector, technology delivered another record with fees up 5% versus tough comparators from a great year, the year before.

Engineering, another of our investment areas, was also excellent, up 32%. Conditions were tougher elsewhere, particularly in construction and property, for example, down 3%. Turning now to Australia and New Zealand, where fees decreased by 6% and operating profit down 39%. It was without doubt a very difficult year throughout, with conditions steadily deteriorating. And again, if you remember, markets were strong as we entered the year. We'd added around 20% more heads in FY 2022 to meet that rapid increase in demand. Things changed quickly, though, as our new year started, and facing increasingly slowing markets, we reduced heads, including an 8% reduction since October. However, as in the UK, with our average headcount still 5% higher in FY 2023 versus the prior year, we had negative profit leverage. Temp fees fell by 6%, driven by volumes down 13%.

Candidate availability fell, and we saw significantly lower client activity in banking and in the public sector. Perm fees were down 5%, including the second half, down 16%. This was all volume-related, and it was partially offset by higher average perm fees. Construction and property, which is our largest ANZ specialism, grew by 2%, and technology was down 2%. However, banking was much tougher, down 36%, and the public sector fell 4%. With such a disappointing performance, we continued to take further steps to improve results, including headcount reductions and restructuring our management team. And while I'm not satisfied with last year, we shouldn't forget that we have the leading business in Australia and that the economy and labor market there continue to benefit from strong long-term fundamentals despite the current challenges.

I'm confident that with the actions taken, that we will return to growth, and overall, our long-term ambitions remain undiminished. Finally, to finish on a more positive note, New Zealand has continued its turnaround over the last few years, and it delivered another great performance with fees up 9%. Our Rest of the World division comprises 28 countries, and 19 of them delivered their own fee records. Fees were up 5% overall, although operating profit was down 14%, largely due to China, where fees there were down 46%, and a material slowdown in the United States, where fees fell 13%. Temp fees across the region increased by 9%, and perm was up 3%.

Regionally, EMEA, which is 60% of the rest of the world division, was the standout, and it grew by 12%, including records in France, Spain, and the Middle East, and I'll return to EMEA in our strategy section. The Americas was down 6% with a sharp slowdown in client and candidate confidence in North America throughout the year. Across in Asia, fees were flat, but behind that, though, we had records in Japan and Malaysia, both were up 21%, as well as Hong Kong, up 16%. China, however, continued to struggle, and the sharp decline in fees there resulted in a GBP 6.1 million year-on-year profit swing. We've adjusted our cost base, and our mainland China headcount is now down 30%. However, we will maintain that current capacity as we'll need it in place, ready for when things do improve.

In summary then, we've delivered all-time record fees, we've maintained growth in our key strategic areas, we've taken market share, and we've protected our investments. Our strategy to move towards the more attractive markets is paying off as it helps our pricing power, which itself has supported our fees despite volume declines in a more cautious world. As ever, we acted swiftly to align capacity to demand as we saw things change quickly in the markets. We also made a lot of progress in helping our broader societies, including an 85% in our Helping for Your Tomorrow volunteering program to nearly 18,000 hours, and we also completed our most comprehensive greenhouse gas emission data gathering exercise yet. I'm pleased to say that we're on track to deliver our science-based targets on a 50% reduction in emissions.

I'll now hand over to James for a deeper look at our financial performance.

Thank you, Alistair, and good morning, everyone. To give some context to these results, we entered FY 2023 with strong momentum and fee growth in all our regions. And although we delivered record fees in FY 2023, including monthly records in September, November and March, most markets slowed sharply through the year, particularly in perm. We moved quickly to align our consultant headcount to activity and fee growth while protecting our investments in key structural growth areas. This early action supported consultant productivity, which remained at good levels through the year, despite the increasingly tougher markets, and was an important driver of our stronger H2 profit result and conversion rate versus H1. This slide summarizes our financial performance. On a like-for-like basis, net fees increased by 6% to GBP 1.295 billion, with operating profit down 9% to GBP 197 million.

We finished the year with strong net cash position of GBP 135.6 million, after returning GBP 240.1 million to shareholders through core and special dividends and the completion of our share buyback program. Moving on to the income statement. Turnover increased by 12%, with the difference between turnover and fee growth driven by the relative resilience and outperformance of our temp business versus perm. In addition, we have the first full year of a large temp outsourcing contract in our rest of world division, where we manage a supply chain, which includes a significant volume of third-party agency supply. And over time, we will increase our direct fill proportion, driving fee growth.

The difference between headline and like-for-like growth rates was primarily the weakening of sterling versus our main trading currencies of the euro and Australian dollar, which increased net fees and operating profits by GBP 32.7 million and GBP 5.7 million, respectively. Basic earnings per share was 8.59p, a 7% decrease versus prior year, driven by lower operating profit and a higher effective tax rate in FY 2023, primarily a result of a positive one-off settlement in the prior year. These were partially offset by a lower net finance charge and a 3.7% decrease in average share count, resulting from our share buyback program. Moving on to the performances of perm and temp.

Perm fees increased by 3%, driven by higher average perm fees up to 11%, benefiting from our actions to increase fee margins and target higher salary markets, together with the effects of broad-based wage inflation. Perm volumes decreased 8% year-on-year, as candidate and client confidence decreased through the year, increasing time to hire. Temp fees grew by 9% due to three factors: a 40 basis points or 3% increase in underlying temp margin, driven by improvements in our pricing. An 8% increase in mix and hours, resulting from our actions to target higher value assignments and from wage inflation globally, partially offset by 3 fewer working days in Germany. Finally, a 2% decrease in temp volumes.

As the chart in the top right corner shows, our actions to drive pricing increased group fees by over 10% or circa GBP 135 million, a crucial part of our results. This slide breaks down our year-on-year movement in operating profit. Starting with FY 2022 profit of GBP 210.1 million, we add back the net GBP 3.3 million cost impacts of closing Russia in FY 2022, which gives an adjusted FY 2022 profit of GBP 213.4 million. We then add the positive exchange impact of GBP 5.7 million and a 6% increase in our like-for-like fees of GBP 72.5 million.... Like-for-like costs increased by 9%. Firstly, payroll costs, which exclude our strategic investments, increased by GBP 61 million.

Of this, GBP 38.5 million related to the 9% average increase in our consultant headcounts, GBP 30 million related to the circa 5% average pay increases, which were effective from July 2022, and partially offsetting this, commissions and bonuses decreased by GBP 7.5 million year-on-year. We continued our longer-term investment in key strategic areas on our infrastructure, which amounted to GBP 12 million of incremental cost in FY 2023. Of this, circa GBP 8 million was invested in scaling our statement of work businesses in Germany, together with opening SOW businesses in France and Australia. We invested a further GBP 2 million opening shared service centers in Casablanca, Zaragoza, and Mexico City, and GBP 2 million reinforcing our senior management infrastructure in key strategic sectors such as technology, engineering, and enterprise clients. Travel and entertainment costs increased by GBP 10 million, normalizing versus a subdued level last year.

MTE costs are now in steady state and 29% below pre-pandemic levels on an FTE basis. Property costs increased by GBP 6 million year-on-year, driven by higher energy and utility costs and rent inflation indexing in countries where this is enforced. Average space per FTE has reduced by 14% versus pre-pandemic levels. Lastly, we completed several back-office efficiency projects in FY 2023, delivering GBP 4.5 million of cost saves on an annualized basis. Our current operating cost base, including our FY 2024 pay reviews, is circa GBP 86 million per period, down GBP 2 million versus December 2022. We have outlined how tougher market conditions through the year increased time to hire and reduced the average number of placements per consultant. This was largely offset by our positive actions to increase pricing and our active management of capacity.

Although overall productivity, as measured by average fees per consultant, decreased by 3%. Our tight overhead cost control measures further protected the bottom line, but ultimately, our conversion rate decreased by 250 basis points to 15.2%, or 15.5% on a working day adjusted basis. However, in line with the guidance we gave at our half year results, our H2 conversion rate of 15.6% represented a 70 basis point increase versus H1 and delivered an H2 profit result of GBP 100 million, despite the tougher trading conditions. Moving on to interest and tax. Our net finance charge decreased modestly to GBP 4.9 million, and looking ahead, we expect the net finance charge for FY 2024 to be circa GBP 6 million, of which circa GBP 4 million is non-cash.

Our effective tax rate increased by 350 basis points to 28%, driven by positive one-off tax settlements in the prior year. We expect the group's ETR to be circa 29% in FY 2024, the increase resulting from the rise in UK corporation tax rate, which was effective from April 2023. We delivered an excellent cash performance, with cash from operations of GBP 199.3 million, representing a conversion of profit, profit into cash of 101%. Our working capital outflow of GBP 28.7 million was driven by growth in our temp business. From this, we paid tax of GBP 65.8 million, which included a catch-up from lower cash tax paid in the prior year, and net interest of GBP 1.7 million, leading to a free cash flow of GBP 131.8 million.

On the right-hand side, we detail how we used the cash generated, and the main items were the payment of GBP 119.1 million special dividends and GBP 46 million of core dividends, the purchase and cancellation of shares through the buyback program at a cost of GBP 75 million, CapEx of GBP 29.1 million, and our acquisition of Vercida Consulting for GBP 1 million. Finally, pension deficit payments of GBP 17.7 million. Our FY 2024 CapEx guidance is circa GBP 30 million. Underpinning our cash performance, we maintained our DSOs at 33 days, in line with the prior year and well below pre-pandemic levels.

We ended the year with cash of GBP 135.6 million, and as a reminder, the group has in place a GBP 210 million revolving credit facility that reduces in November 2024 to GBP 170 million and expires in 2025. On this slide, we compare the balance sheet of June 2023 with prior year, with three key high points to highlight. Our cash position reduced by GBP 160.6 million, with an increase in net working capital, both explained earlier. FY 2022 had GBP 56.8 million of other financial liabilities, which represented the outstanding balance under the GBP 75 million share buyback program, and this liability was fulfilled during FY 2023. We had a GBP 76.3 million reduction in the defined benefit pension surplus, calculated on an IAS 19 accounting basis.

This was driven by lower expected return on scheme assets, partially offset by an increase in the discount rate and company contributions. We continued to make pension deficit recovery payments of circa 18 million, which will increase at 3% per year. Helpfully, we have seen a sizable reduction in the deficits of our scheme when calculated on an actuarial basis, which positions the scheme well towards our long-term buyout objective. Our priorities for free cash flow remain unchanged, namely to fund the group's investment and development, maintain a strong balance sheet, deliver a sustainable, progressive, and appropriate core dividend, and to return surplus capital to shareholders. In line with this policy, the board has declared a full-year core dividend of 3 pence per share, or GBP 47.8 million, up 5% versus prior year.

In line with our well-established policy, we have today announced a further GBP 35.6 million return to shareholders via a special dividend of GBP 0.0224 per share. So in summary, we have delivered record fees, and as markets deteriorated through the year, actively managed our headcount and costs while protecting our strategic investments to deliver highly cash-backed profits. Fee growth was entirely driven by our early management actions to increase margins, supported by the positive effects of general wage inflation globally, offset by volume declines, notably in perm. And we remain focused highly on leveraging our investments and driving consultant productivity. The group is highly cash generative with a strong track record of returning significant levels of capital to shareholders. Turning to current trading. Despite macroeconomic challenges, overall temp volumes remained stable on a sequential basis.

In perm, conditions remain tough, with increased time to hire, driven by reduced clients and candidate confidence. Our key markets continue to be supported by skill shortages. Both temp and perm fees continue to benefit from our actions to increase margins, which we expect to continue through H1 2024, and by the positive effects of wage inflation globally. We expect group consultant headcount will reduce by 3%-4% in Q1 FY 2024, as we continue to focus on consultant productivity and leveraging our investments. As previously reported, the group's June 2023 net fee exit rate was down 2% year-on-year, and given the strong fee growth in the prior year, we have a tough H1 FY 2024 growth comparative.

Overall, we expect group fees will decline year-on-year in H1 2024, driving a reduction in first half conversion rate as we protect key strategic investments to benefit from future recovery and structural growth opportunities. At a regional level, in Germany, temp and contracting remains good overall, with modest volume growth supported by positive pricing. Perm is flat against strong comparatives. In addition, 2 fewer working days in H1 will negatively impact H1 fees and profit by circa GBP 3.5 million. In the UK and Ireland and Australia and New Zealand, temp and contracting remains broadly stable overall, but we are continuing to see an increase in time to hire in perm. In rest of the world, EMEA remains solid overall, and the Americas remains tough. In Asia, China remains tough, with activity elsewhere stable.

Finally, FX represents a headwind for FY 2024 operating profit, and retranslating FY 2023 profit of GBP 197 million at current exchange rates would result in a GBP 8 million profit decrease. With that, I'll hand you back to Alistair, who will update you on strategy before we take your questions.

Thanks, James. Let me finish with a brief update then on our strategy, starting with the components that we outlined at our Investor Day last April. These are the fundamental core of our future, to be a more resilient and higher quality business with stickier and more diverse earning streams. Clearly, the economic backdrop has deteriorated significantly since we set out our ambitions in early 2022 as the world reopened post-COVID, and we always said that external factors would play a major part in the timing of our delivery. However, despite that, I think that we've made solid progress. We're ahead of our plan to double operating profit in Germany. We're on track to deliver GBP 500 million in technology fees and GBP 400 million in enterprise client fees.

However, slowing economies, sharply rising interest rates, and a decrease in overall business confidence have had a significant impact on ANZ and the UK and Ireland. We're behind schedule in both deliver on our ambitions by FY 2027, particularly so in Australia. Remember, though, that our Investor Day was designed to set out our art of the possible in our businesses based on stable macro conditions, and those ambitions remain undiminished. Once we see a return to economic stability and then growth, I fully expect us to reach our ambition in due course, albeit most likely, slightly outside the original time frame. I mentioned earlier that I'd return to EMEA, which has been a strong performer in recent years, including last year, up 12%, and it's worth a deeper dive into what's behind that growth.

EMEA fees are up 140%, 140% in the last decade, and last year, they represented 21% of the overall group. Our fee CAGR is a healthy 9%, with temp outperforming perm. Growth has been consistent across the decade across all of the EMEA countries, although it was led by Italy, up 15% CAGR, followed by Spain, up 13%. Our largest rest of the world country, France, has grown by 9% CAGR and is now over GBP 80 million in fees. In more recent years, the Middle East has become a major contributor. It was up an excellent 53% last year to now over GBP 10 million in fees.

A key part of the EMEA success story has been our building of a large non-perm business in line with our overall group strategy. The average number of temps paid per period in EMEA outside Germany has increased by 165% to nearly 9,500. Putting that in context, we currently have around 50% more temps and contractors in Germany alone than we do in the rest of EMEA combined, so there's clearly a lot more that we can do. A big driver of the success has been the investments that we've made in our temp infrastructure, particularly in the last 18 months or so, with new shared service centers coming on stream in Zaragoza and in Casablanca, complementing our existing center in Krakow.

We now have the operational scale and just as importantly, the management teams, to run significantly bigger temp businesses across Europe, and we're leveraging the expertise of our German colleagues in replicating what they have done so successfully over many years. We're also becoming more diversified by sector in our large countries and leveraging our enterprise client relationships across the continent, with over 20 large clients extended their geographic relationships with us in the last year alone. All of that gives me the confidence that we can tap into significant potential to grow our temp and contractor volumes, and therefore our overall business right across Europe and the Middle East, and we've started the new year with positive momentum. In summary then, we've had a very busy year, but by carefully managing our capacity, leveraging our pricing, and investing in our long-term opportunities, we've delivered all-time record fees.

We do, however, continue to face an uncertain world, and we'll need to continue to strike the right balance between cost reduction on the one hand, and investment in building the future Hays on the other. We're very focused on driving productivity in the business, and we've right-sized our capacity, but the investments that we make in a slowing market will challenge our short-term conversion rate in the next few months. That said, we have very purposefully built a business that is the leader in a world that's characterized by acute skill shortages, and those shortages are not going away anytime soon. That gives us a very bright future, and we're well experienced in tackling any challenges that the world may throw at us in the short term. And then finally, as you know, this is my last set of results as Chief Executive.

It's been a tremendous privilege to have led this great company for the last 16 years, and during that time, we've helped over 4 million people around the world secure their next career move. That human aspect is the thing that I'm most proud of, as it has touched so many lives for the better. Our business is unrecognizable today from the one that I joined. When I became CEO back in 2007, over 80% of our fees came from the UK and Ireland. Since then, we've taken that local success story, and we've turned it into a global one, where over 80% of our fees are now international, and we operate at record scale around the world. We've created a powerful global brand, we've digitally enabled our business for the modern world, and we've built a global leader in white-collar recruitment.

It's been a true team effort, though, and my heartfelt thanks go to all of my colleagues around the world, both past and present, for their hard work and expertise. Above all, the world will always need talented people, and as a leader in that market, I'm sure there will be many exciting future chapters of our Hays stories ahead, and I wish my colleague, Dirk, every success as the next Chief Executive of Hays. We'd now be delighted to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Alternatively, you can submit your questions via the webcast. Please stand by. We will compile the Q&A roster. This will take a few moments. Now we're going to take our first question over the phone. Just give us a moment. The question comes through the line of Rory McKenzie from UBS. Your line is open. Please ask the question.

Rory McKenzie
Director of Equity Research, Business Services, UBS

Good morning. It's Rory from UBS here. Just firstly, on the current trading, given that volumes are generally lower in summer, is the stable comments you make referring to the year-over-year volume growth trends? And then within that, and within Germany, is that volume growth still reflecting lower new starters and more extensions, or has there been any change to that picture? And then secondly, can you make any comments about how the jobs being lifted over summer are in terms of wages or your expected fee rates? You know, do you still expect a good tailwind from pricing and mix in H1, or will that keep fading from here, I guess, as the big step up you took starts to annualize. And then finally, can you just talk about the enterprise client category?

Is that just outperforming because those end clients are more resilient, or are you already seeing, you know, good early signs of success with expanding your services in those key accounts?

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

Hi, Rory. I'll pick up the questions on current trading and I guess what we're seeing so far through the summer. As you know, we've only had one month of actual results and we're kind of, as you know, that's a summer month as well, which we do lose visibility of it as people go on their vacations, et cetera. So, I mean, overall, the temp and contracting has continued a stable trend overall. We saw sequential stability through the second half of the last financial year, and that's continued.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

...into the new financial year, albeit we do have to adjust for normal seasonality within that, because, as I say, people go on holiday and we lose volume in our education business in the UK, for example. In Germany, in question of your volume growth, we continue to see sort of low 2%-3% volume growth year-on-year across our temp and contracting business. But we're continuing to see good pricing dynamics there as well, which is supportive. So on a fee basis, we're continuing to grow at sort of 10%-11% year-on-year in temp and contracting in Germany. In UK, as I say, it's a pretty stable trend in terms of temp, adjusting for the normal seasonality.

And likewise in Australia, the only extra thing I'd call out in Australia is that we've seen the loss of some public sector temps into federal government. There was a number of finishes at the end of June, which weren't renewed. Putting that to one side, the underlying picture in Australia has continued to be stable overall. So I think in terms of volume growth in Germany, we talked about slightly lower numbers of new starters, and that's been offset by contract extensions and fewer finishes, and we've continued to see that through the summer.

We have a natural break, slightly less of an impact than we have in December, but we do have fills in June, and we saw slightly lower fill rates in Germany in June than normal, about 2 percentage points lower, which is helpful, and that gives us a little bit of support going into the new financial year, and has helped maintain that 2%-3% volume growth year-on-year. In terms of new jobs coming into the business through the summer, in the Q4 trading update, I talked about modestly lower job flow coming into the business, and then on that modestly lower job flow, we've been seeing an increase in time to hire. And it's the same trend again, Rory.

I mean, obviously, July and into August is impacted by holidays anyway, so it's difficult to get a read across, but I wouldn't say there's been any fundamental shift at all in the last six weeks of trading. In terms of pricing, we talked about that at the Q4, and clearly, we've got a good year-on-year growth impact in the second half last year, but it's been pretty stable on a sequential basis, i.e., we're not seeing an acceleration in that at all at the moment. What does that mean for next financial year?

We'll continue to have a tailwind year on year, so I expect to see some pricing impact year on year, but unless we see that pick up, it will probably run its course through the first half, but we'll certainly get some support in the first half of the year. Alistair, I'll hand you over to you on the Enterprise.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

Yeah, thanks for your question on Enterprise, Rory. As you know, and we put out at the Investor Day in April 2022, doubling down on our enterprise capabilities and growing market share in the enterprise market is fundamental to our future. So it's great to see that we're well on track with our growth in that standpoint. And I think it comes from a couple of areas. Number one, we've got access to the people that our clients need. I'll come back to that in a moment. And number two, our clients, in general, are asking for a broader set of services, a more holistic talent services value proposition, if you like, from their suppliers. And that's been behind our strategy to expand and broaden our services away from just recruitment into adjacent areas such as training, DE&I consulting, et cetera.

I'll come back to in a moment. There, there's an awful lot more that we can do, but I think these results in a difficult economic backdrop, the fact that we were up 10% in Enterprise, shows that we are, we are, delivering on our strategy there. We are growing market share, and we are broadening our offering. I'd point to Germany, for example, where we won a number of MSPs in the energy sector. We now work for all of the major energy utilities in Germany. Clearly, that's a great place to find yourselves, and that's because of the quality of, of the, the product that we're selling. We have access to the, the talented individuals in the skills short market that German utility organizations need. So well done to the team over there.

And then in terms of Vercida, a DE&I consulting business based in the UK, but with a global offering, we bought that a few months back, and they're actively delivering to our clients right now, as well as building a pipeline and talking to a whole host of further clients that we can plug them into, and I expect great things there. Another example would be the move that we've made into creating talent, as opposed to just moving talent around, and our apprenticeship business is off to a great start. We have our first cohort of technology apprentices into government. They're well underway with that, their program, their first program, where we recruit and then train and deploy those individuals into our clients.

And we're busy actively recruiting the next wave of cohorts of people into that space right now, because that's our way of starting to create more talent that we can supply into our enterprise client organizations, as opposed to just consuming talent. And I think that that's a great example of the way we're broadening our whole sort of talent lifecycle services, and I think that will be a core part of how we continue to be even more successful in the enterprise segment as we go forward. Hope that helps, Rory.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

Yeah, thanks, guys. That's very helpful. Alistair, I wanted to say thank you very much for your time on this and many other results, calls, and meetings. Helping 4 million people into new jobs is a big impact to have, so all the best for whatever you choose to do next.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

That's very kind. Thanks, thanks, Rory. It's, it's worth getting out of bed on the morning if you can help 4 million people get new jobs. So, that's a job worth doing in my book.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

Fantastic. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Now we'll go and take our next question. Just give us a moment. The next question comes from the line of Hans Heimbürger from Kepler Cheuvreux. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Hans Joachim Heimbürger
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, good morning, gentlemen. A few questions from my side. First of all, on headcounts, you indicated that you will reduce total headcount by about 3%-4% in Q1. Maybe some flavor where you plan to reduce, and at the same time, where you still see lots of opportunities for investments. And then going back on your guidance, yeah, perm a little bit more, let's say, down as I see it, while temp is still stable, combined with the fact that you indicate that you expect conversion ratio to be somewhat down year-on-year.

Must I read it that let's say also on the fee income side, you, let's say, see a slightly increase in your decline compared to 2% exit rate, which may be some feeling on how we should read that, that guidance?

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

Hi, Hans. I'll pick both of those up. The first question on headcount, we've clearly guided in the statement 3%-4% reduction in Q1. I'd say that'd be fairly broad-based, but I think probably the AN Z will be one area that we expect the headcount to come down in the next quarter, as we readdress the capacity there versus demand. And secondly, in the UK, I expect to see some further reductions in the UK, and then I think it will be more broadly based around rest of world, on a market-by-market basis. There will be little pockets as well, where we do invest, of course, we'll, and importantly, we'll be replacing a lot of the people who do leave, as we normally do.

So it will be relatively selective, hence why 3%-4% in a quarter is what feels like the right level of balance. I mean, we've taken 6% of the headcount out in the second half of last year, and we've aligned our headcount at the end of Q4 pretty well to where the level of demand is. So, we were down 5% in June versus a fee growth down 2%. So I think we did a pretty good job through the second half of correcting that. So I don't think it needs sort of major surgery. It's more kind of just being selective market by market. In terms of guidance for the first half, we've put that in, I guess for two reasons.

Firstly, on a fee line, we exited the year at -2% growth in June, and we faced tougher comps in the first quarter. We were up 15% growth last year, and we hit a record in September, and we hit a record in November. So we've got some pretty tough first half comps coming up in the first half. So even if we stayed sequentially stable from where we were in June, that itself would see an acceleration in the year-on-year fee decline. So, you know, we've got some time to go. Clearly, September is a big month for us, and then October and November is an important period as well.

So we've got plenty of trading ahead, but what we wanted to signal that even on a sequentially stable basis, that year-on-year fee growth would, fee decline would accelerate. And importantly, that would drive a reduction in the conversion rate. So whilst we've been selectively taking headcount out for a period of time, and we expect to do so in Q1, we will only be selective, and we do want to protect our investments and our infrastructure. So we will expect, with fee decline, the conversion rate to compress as well in the first half.

Hans Joachim Heimbürger
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, thanks, clear.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes to line of Kean Marden from Jefferies. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Kean Marden
Managing Director, Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

Thank you. Morning, all. I've got 3, if I can. Just first of all, coming back to the enterprise business again. Would you mind also just giving us a bit more information regarding the size of the pipeline, if you're flagging here that it's potentially increased in scale, over the last 6-12 months? And just some insight into how long it would normally take to convert that opportunity set. Then secondly, your point regarding sort of price mix over the last 12 months is very well made, it's been very resilient to date. But I guess we are seeing softening in some pockets of labor markets around the world.

I'm just particularly interested in whether you're seeing fee rates start to ease in those areas where the sort of the supply-demand balance in the labor market is starting to switch. And then one for James. So we're also seeing rising bankruptcies at the moment, but your DSO don't seem to be increasing. So just trying to rationalize that. I guess if we take a step back, DSO was 39 pre-COVID, 33 now. What really explains that structural shift? And in your view, how permanent might that be? Thanks.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

Thanks, Kean. Let me kick off on the enterprise one. So yeah, the pipeline is steadily building. During COVID, obviously, people were more worried about the short term than the long term. So pipeline generation back then was more difficult. Things have definitely picked up in the last 12 months, and we've reoriented our team over that time and invested in it, and I'm pleased to see how the pipeline is developing. In terms of the time to convert things, it really depends on the client's situation. It can be as quick as 2, 3, 4 months. It can be as slow as 18 months plus.

So when you're looking at a major outsource or you're looking at a retender that might be coming to market, it can take you over a year from initial conversations to actually completing and winning that deal. So it's really horses for courses, but the pipeline is the strongest that I think I've ever seen, actually. And I think that's part and parcel of our thrust into enterprise, together with our expansion of services.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

... to, to those organizations. So we're talking to new organizations today that we've never spoken to before, because maybe we didn't have the offerings for them. Well, as we expand our services, we're now starting to have those offerings. Could you just repeat the second question for me, Kean? I'm sorry, I missed it.

Kean Marden
Managing Director, Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

It's about fee rates. So overall, that's continued to be a tailwind, but we are seeing labor markets loosen in some areas. I'm just wondering whether fee rates remain firm in those deteriorating labor markets or whether we're starting to see them ease off a bit.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

Yeah, yeah. Sorry. Got it. Yeah.

Kean Marden
Managing Director, Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

Yeah.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

So wage inflation is still evident. It may have moderated back from some of the numbers that we were seeing a year back, and that's understandable. So, the cost of the people we're supplying, if you like, continues to go up. Our margins that we are charging for our services have remained stable. So, I've seen no real downward pressure on our own margins, so that's good. We haven't put them up anymore because we've put them up quite a lot, but we've got a tailwind behind us there.

And I think also the strategic decisions that we've taken and the actions behind those decisions then to move further up the salary chain, further up the value chain, if you like, in terms of the types of jobs that we're seeking to fill more of, they're obviously higher value jobs. They tend to be scarcer supply. They tend to be less price sensitive, if I could put it that way. That shift up the value curve, as well as leveraging our own pricing power by building a business that's more and more in the hotter, in-demand markets, as opposed to maybe some of the more longer-term traditional markets that we've been in over the last 50 years, that's all helping us. So it's not just a case of, if you like, moving up and down with where the market is.

It's a case of purposeful action to go to the places where pricing and activity is going to be strongest over time.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

I think, Kean, the only bit I'd add to that is the last bit of the dynamic, which is hours, and obviously, we track hours worked very carefully as well. And we, we've seen some reduction in hours in some markets, average hours worked by our temps and contractors in some parts of the world, notably in Germany and in the contracting in temp, and we do look at that very carefully.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

Mm-hmm.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

In the summer, we've seen probably a little bit more vacations than we have done previously, and we'll be watching that really carefully as people come back to work in September to see whether the trend... I think the trend was broadly stable through the second half. We've seen a little bit of extra holidays in the summer. It'll be interesting to see how that one returns in September.

Kean Marden
Managing Director, Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

Yeah.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

Just on your comment on our DSOs, I was really pleased with the performance this year. We've again held on to 33 days, which, as you mentioned, is about 6 days or so below where we were pre-pandemic. I mean, I'd put that down to the team doing a fantastic job around the world with absolutely dedicated focus on collecting cash, and that, for us, is a military operation. We're collecting GBP 130 million-GBP 140 million a week in cash, and it requires a lot of effort and a lot of teamwork to do that. So my huge thanks to the teams around the world. Am I expecting that to worsen or to change going forward?

Well, I think it's gonna be hard for us to improve it, and we're always conscious that, you know, at some stage, will clients stop paying us on time and start to hold on to cash, because cash has got a price now.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

Mm-hmm

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

... and my nervousness is that they could do. But again, I just keep challenging the team to do a great job, and they keep performing. And in terms of defaults, so far, we've seen relatively low levels. It's not inconsistent with last year. And again, we remain completely vigilant on whether we see that. At the moment, we've not seen that in our numbers, but we watch it like a hawk. And in my view, high quality credit control, keep getting the cash in early, is the key thing to do to minimize default risk.

Kean Marden
Managing Director, Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

Great. Thanks very much, James.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. The next question comes from the line of Karl Green from RBC. Your line is open, please ask your question.

Karl Green
Equity Research Analyst, RBC

Yeah, thanks very much. Just two questions from me. Firstly, on the technology discipline, could you just give us a bit more granularity on some of the sub-disciplines there in terms of latest trends, what you're seeing, areas that are potentially, you know, growing faster than they were 6, 12 months ago, areas which have maybe slowed? And then secondly, just in terms of capital allocation, I think, you know, you've sent a confidence signal with that ordinary dividend increase. What kind of macro scenario would you envisage would lead you to sort of dial that progressive dividend expansion back? I mean, obviously, I think giving your target 2-3 times, and it's very much at the upper end of that at the moment.

You know, what scenario would you envisage that potentially becoming, you know, sort of less progressive?

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

Let me pick up on the technology point, Carl, and then James can talk about distribution. So, we hit a record as you'll have seen, so we've grown the tech business around the world. It has been a more difficult market in some geographies. The States has been difficult, for example, well-trailed news from just the tech market over in the States. But when you look at the hotter markets of a market that's in general doing very well anyway, areas such as cybersecurity, for obvious reasons, is a red-hot market and not enough people available for the roles that are out there... as everybody's moving to cloud infrastructure, then there's a great demand for cloud engineers.

Generative AI has hit the world, and has become one of the fastest growing phenomenon in technology in our lifetimes. Again, there's a massive shortage of people that understand and can work in generative AI. So you can understand why all of those are particularly hot subsegments. I wouldn't point to anywhere that's particularly bad, because the world is driven by technology, and if you're not putting in new technology, you're certainly having to maintain your existing technology. Some areas are not as hot as generative AI or cybersecurity, areas such as infrastructure, for example, people are not, by and large, putting in massive ERPs at this stage, but that will change in due course as people need to upgrade and refresh and move on to more modern systems.

So tech is our biggest business by sector around the world, and I confidently suggest that it is going to remain our biggest sector for a very, very long time to come, to be honest, and that's why we've been so focused on it for the last five years, to build what today is the global leader in tech recruitment all around the world. I think that's a fantastic position to find ourselves, but we're gonna double down on that, and we're gonna continue to reinforce it.

Karl Green
Equity Research Analyst, RBC

Okay.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

Hi, Carl. I'll pick up the question on capital allocation and the core dividend. The core dividend for us is really important. It's the core part of our distribution policy, literally. I think it's important that we've signaled it is progressive in this decision, and we've increased it by 5%. As you highlight, it's still very well covered. It's still at 2.9 times cover, and that's well within our range of 2-3 times cover that we've had as our policy for some time. I mean, it's difficult for me to answer the second part of the question, which is, what would you need to see to not be progressive? Because we're not in that situation now.

I mean, the situation where we are in is that we're confident in our strategy and performance and outlook, and in our financial position as well. It is we give ourselves 2-3 times cover to give ourselves a little bit of flexibility to support the dividend and to continue to have a progression in it, which I think is important and an important signal of intention as well.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

And just a point I'd make on that, Carl. I think that progressive point brings great value, actually. That if we can continue to be growing the dividend, and as James points out, that's why we've got a range of cover. And while we're confident in the business as we are today, then it's a great signal.

Karl Green
Equity Research Analyst, RBC

Good stuff. Best of luck, Alistair. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. And now we'll proceed to our next question. And the next question comes through line of Andy Grobler from Exane BNP Paribas. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Andy Grobler
Equity Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Hi, good morning. Just two from me, if that's okay. Firstly, a shorter term one, just so that I understand your guidance into Q1. You're talking about head count sequentially down 3 or 4, which I guess means average consultants will be down 7 or 8%, and with productivity having been down a couple of % for the last 6 months or so, you know, is the implication here that you're looking at a high single digit, low double digit declines in like for like net fees? And if that's wrong, could you tell me which bits are incorrect in that?

Then secondly, and kind of a bit longer term, Alistair, as your tenure draws to a close, and you think about how technology has impacted the business over the years, and what your expectations are for the next 5 or 10 years, for Hays and for the broader industry? Thank you very much.

James Hilton
Group Finance Director, Hays

Hi, Andy. I'll pick up that question on the Q1. Yes, the 3%-4% reduction is on a sequential basis. As we exited the year with headcount down 5% year-on-year, so you're correct, that would probably lead us into sort of mid to high single digit year-on-year decline in consultant headcount. Where the quarter goes in terms of fee growth, or should I say, fee reduction year-on-year, it's, you know, I don't really have a full view on that. As you're aware, I don't have August results yet, and September for us is typically 42%-43% of the quarter.

Until I see that, I can't really make a call on where our overall Q1 fee growth might be, and therefore where our overall productivity is. What I would say is that the last nine months, we've been pretty diligent in matching our headcount to where our overall like for like growth performance is. I put a slide in the deck that kind of tracked that over the last 12 months, and by and large, we've been pretty keeping that pretty much in line, and that's really the sort of the dynamic that we want to continue going forward, which is really to keep productivity at good levels, overall.

And therefore, a 3%-4% reduction in headcount feels about right at this stage, given the trends that we've seen in fee growth so far through the summer.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

Let me pick up on the tech point, Andy, because I think it's a really interesting point, and you know, I'm a passionate believer in the benefits that tech can bring to any industry, including our own, as well as the threats to business models as well. So I'm not complacent about it. And it's impossible to predict what tech will become and what it will do and how it will evolve. But the one thing you can predict is it will do something, and you'd better be alive and open-minded and aware and invest in it, actually. It's one of those things that you need to keep on it, because if you miss a wave, you're not gonna catch up and catch the next wave. So you have to try a lot of things.

Many don't work out, but if it doesn't work out, you will have learned something, and that allows you to do a better job on the next wave that you're going to catch. The wave that we're working very hard on, the whole world is working very hard on today, is obviously generative AI, and that really hit the world back end of last calendar year. I think everybody in every organization in the world is thinking through the positives and negatives of that. We've been working on AI for over five years now. Initially, extractive AI, and more recently on the generative AI. We work with a number of the large language model businesses, looking at how their LLMs work, using them behind our firewall on our data.

I think generative AI, in time, is gonna give us a couple of benefits. It will enhance our internal efficiency and effectiveness by arming our people to do more and better, and it will potentially open up new revenue streams. I don't know what they might be at this stage, but I think that's an interesting challenge for the company and the team to be thinking about how can you leverage it, not just to improve productivity or reduce costs or whatever, but also to open new revenue streams. The point I'd make, though, Andy, is, you know, at the end of the day, people drive businesses. Our business is to find the right talent for people, and our business is around people doing that job.

We believe in the art and science of recruitment, though, and equipping our people to do more and better every day forevermore is really at the core of our business. So leveraging tech so our people can do more and do better is really the heart of our strategy for my entire tenure here, and I'd suggest going forward as well. Does that help?

Andy Grobler
Equity Research Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Yes, thank you very much. Alistair, best of luck for whatever the future brings.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

Thank you very much, Andy. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. The next question comes from the line of Kean Marden, from Jefferies. The line is open. Please ask your question.

Kean Marden
Managing Director, Head of Support Services Research, Jefferies

Thanks. Not a question, but before we bring the call to a close, I've just been asked to say a few words on the occasion of Alistair's final results meeting. But before I do that, let's cast our minds back to 2007, if we can. So Gordon Brown has just become Prime Minister, Steve Jobs launches something called the iPhone, and there's a bank run on a small building society, some of you may have heard of, called Northern Rock. In the sports services sector, a rather engaging Yorkshireman is appointed Chief Executive of Hays. He comes from an exotically named IT outsourcer called Xansa.

He tells us that technology is going to transform labor markets and recruiters over the next decade, but rather unusually for this sector, he's never placed a candidate in his life. Within 3 years, the U.K. economy is in severe recession, Hays net fees have declined by 40%, and recruiter share prices have halved. Welcome to the sector, Alistair. But just as equity markets are very different in 2023 compared with 2007, so is Hays. Net fees from highly cyclical sectors like banking and finance have been substituted with structural growth markets like technology. German EBIT has increased fourfold as Alistair internationalized the pace, and Hays technology toolkit has transformed consultant productivity. Turns out that technology has transformed labor markets and recruiters over that 16-year period, after all.

From the outside, Hays has always seemed a very happy, supportive, and rewarding employer, with cultural foundations laid by the mighty Bob Lawson and then marched by Alistair and Paul Venables. So on behalf of our analysts and investors today on this call, may I wish you all success in your next endeavors, Alistair, and we do hope that our paths cross again in the future. Many thanks.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

That's very kind, Kean. I really appreciate it. I think over 16 years, I really do feel as though we have seen it all, the good and the bad, and the somewhere in the middle. But I'm glad that we got something right. I think at least that prediction that technology might change a few things has actually come to pass. And I'll confidently predict on the last day, as opposed to the first day, that it'll continue to change a lot of things. So we live in an exciting world, but it has been a long shift, but it's been a good shift. And it's great to be signing off with an all-time record top line. That's always a good time to be handing over the keys.

But I'd like to just say a personal thank you to all of yourselves, whether in the analyst community or in the investment community. Thank you for all of the support that you've given me over the years. It's been truly appreciated, and you've made my job easier, and you've also made it more fun, and I think that's an important part of life. So, thank you to everybody, and good luck to yourselves as well in future endeavors. And I do hope, and I do know, that our paths will cross again, and I look forward to that. So thanks again.

Operator

Thank you. The speakers are now for the questions or comments. I would now like to hand the conference over to Alistair Cox for your last closing remarks.

Alistair Cox
CEO, Hays

Okay. I think that's, that's it, everybody. Over and out! Look forward to talking soon. Thanks.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.

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