Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the HydrogenOne Capital Growth Plc investor presentation. Throughout this recorded presentation, investors will be in listen-only mode. Questions are encouraged. They can be submitted at any time via the Q&A tab that's just situated on the right-hand corner of your screen. Please just simply type in your questions and press 'Send'. The company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives during the meeting itself. However, the company will review all questions submitted today and publish responses where it is appropriate to do so, and these will be available via your Investor Meet Company dashboard. Before we begin, I would like to submit the following poll, which will just appear on your screens now. And I would now like to hand you over to the management team from HydrogenOne Capital Growth.
JJ, Richard, good morning.
Well, good morning. JJ Traynor, one of the managing partners here at HydrogenOne, joined by Richard Hulf.
Morning.
We are going to take you through the results that we published this morning, and plenty of time for Q's and A's at the end of the session. The disclaimer statement. Look, a summary of the Q3. Really pleased to see the NAV per share rising 5% year-over-year, to just over GBP 1 a share. NAV now sitting at GBP 131 million . The portfolio continues to deliver strong organic growth. That's the private portfolio, with revenues up 174% year-over-year to GBP 63 million. And within that, there's strong momentum and good news flow from several portfolio companies.
Richard will take you through that in a moment. Investments in Q3 totaled GBP 1.6 million in two follow-ons, and the results of all of that, cash plus listed shares sitting at around GBP 9 million at the end of the quarter, which is a robust cash position for the fund to be in. So that's a summary. Let me just recap on the theme for those on the call who are not familiar with the hydrogen sector. So the slide here is an overview of the hydrogen opportunity overall. On the left-hand side of that chart, this shows the setup for a green hydrogen project. So renewable electricity going into an electrolyser, which splits water into hydrogen and oxygen.
And then that hydrogen gas is an energy carrier, which energy carrier for the renewables, which can be stored over long periods of time, and of course, moved around as a gas or a liquid. And then the end use of that gas, either as a, as a gas, so across the top of the chart there, with hydrogen being used in things like oil refining and chemicals, plants and cement manufacture, or it can be converted back into electricity using a fuel cell. And that's very useful for moving heavy objects like trucks and trains and ships, or for off-grid power. And all of this, of course, is done to replace fossil fuels in the energy system and therefore avoid greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change.
So that's a setup for the clean hydrogen industry. Where are we invested in all of that? So we have 10 private positions on the left-hand side of the chart there. A highly concentrated portfolio, with the top five holdings actually accounting for over 70% of the NAV of the fund. Where do we invest? Well, these are private investments in revenue-generating supply chain companies and developer businesses with plans for hydrogen production around the middle of this decade. We co-invest with strategic industrials or other institutions, and we look for portfolio diversity. It means global allocation of capital and right across the full value chain.
Of course, we're very focused on exits, either by IPO or by trade sale, and that's really where we crystallize value for our investors. Here on the left-hand side of this chart, you can see our investments again split by theme, so production companies, storage, supply chain businesses, and applications. Across the width of the chart there, those are the co-investors, and you can see we've invested alongside some big industrial names like Shell, like Vitol, like Centrica, who are all growing their hydrogen businesses. Also institutional investors, particularly with an ESG slant, so Amazon, Foresight, Planet First, Lightrock, just to give you some of those names.
Overall, the hydrogen industry has seen GBP 8 billion of fresh investment so far this year, which is substantially higher than 2022. More broadly in renewables, I appreciate that there are some negative headlines on renewables in general, but BlackRock alongside Occidental announced a $500 million investment in direct air capture on the Gulf Coast just this week. EQT here in the U.K. have announced a GBP 500 million investment in U.K. battery player. So a lot going on in this sector, a lot of industrial and institutional investment coming in.
In terms of government support, government policy support, policymakers around the world continue to provide positive legislation and funding for clean hydrogen. The example there on the left-hand side, in the U.S. , the U.S. government has recently detailed $7 billion of funding for seven hydrogen hubs across the country, as well as plans for tax credits for clean hydrogen. And on the right-hand side, the EU has implemented direct subsidies this year, which are called IPCEI, as well as support mechanisms that stimulate demand for clean hydrogen. Our portfolio companies have been awarded EUR 190 million IPCEI funding just in this quarter. In Germany, where we have 25% of our NAV currently, Germany is a leader in the hydrogen sector.
T hey've announced more stringent measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions, including a new hydrogen pipeline system, which you can see on the map there. Germany's target for 2030, 3 million tons per annum, is equivalent to the entire U.S. hydrogen target for 2030. So Germany is a major player here, and it's really good to have 25% of our capital deployed in Germany direct businesses. Turning to the quarter in a bit more detail. As before, we use IPEV Guidelines for these numbers. They are reviewed and approved by our Board every quarter, and by our auditor, KPMG, on an annual basis.
NAV per share just up very slightly, quarter-on-quarter, and up 5% year-over-year. The numbers use a 13.5% discount rate in the quarter, which is down slightly from Q2 2023, and higher than a year ago. So that year-over-year, year-over-year increase in discount rate took GBP 0.03 per share out of the NAV, and sequentially, there's a GBP 0.7 per share improvement as a result of the slight falloff in discount rate across, across the summer. We made GBP 1.6 million of follow-on investments in the quarter, GBP 1 million into NanoSUN and GBP 0.6 million into Cranfield.
I think as mentioned, that these cash and listed positions are just around GBP 9 million, meaning the company is in a robust cash position going forward. The chart on the left here shows the moving parts in the NAV on a Q2 to Q3 2023 basis. And what we're seeing there is a rise in valuations of multiple private positions, totaling around GBP 2.2 per share, or around 2% of the Q3 2023 NAV.
On the right-hand side, on a longer-term basis, NAV per share has been steady and rising since our mid-2021 IPO, and we would characterize that as organic growth as the portfolio companies grow their businesses with our investment, with small ups and downs per quarter or to the NAVs due to listed markets and fluctuations in discount rates. So overall, this is a respectable bottom line performance from the fund as it completes its first investment phase. What's not in these figures is the impact of exits, and that's ahead of us. That's a very important part of our business model. And too, I think as mentioned previously, two portfolio companies currently are active in terms of divestment, with advisors appointed by both of those firms. So that's a run through the numbers.
Let me pass you over to Richard now on the portfolio developments in more detail.
Thanks, JJ. So just to recap, on the fund, where is the fund distributed, by segment, by theme, on the chart on the left-hand side there, and by geography? So, you know, where have we invested? As JJ said, private assets dominate the fund. That's 98% of the fund now, two percent into listed names. We invest into revenue-generating supply chain companies. Even the companies that are based in the U.K., importantly, are selling most of their products globally, and particularly into the EU. And EU developer companies with plans for production middle of the decade. We co-invested with some great strategic partners, as JJ mentioned earlier.
And we're looking for portfolio diversity, so we're going from the upstream, the hydrogen generation, through to hydrogen production, storage, and transmission, and that's really what's sort of laid out in the fund holdings that we're showing on the chart on the right-hand side there. What about revenue growth from the fund since investment? On the left, the revenue growth by company since we've invested. The early investments, of course, into Bramble, Sunfire, and NanoSUN, have grown the most, 12-16 times since we've invested. And some of the later investments into Strohm, Elcogen, and HH2E, just getting underway now, one to four times.
And if we aggregate all of the revenues on a 100% basis, on the right-hand side there, we generated GBP 63 million in revenues in the last 12 months, up 174% from the equivalent period in Q3 2022 on a pro forma basis. So this growth is real and accelerating, as you can see from the bars on the right there. And we hope to better break this down in a little bit more detail for you, as we go into the future, hopefully in maybe the next quarter. Let's break the fund down a bit in terms of some of the highlights of the companies this quarter. We've invested GBP 20 million into Elcogen, and we own just about 10% of the business.
We've had successful IPCEI grant coming into the company at EUR 25 million. But the real headline, we mentioned it at the back end of the last quarter, was Hyundai investing EUR 45 million, and that completed in October, bringing in a very important strategic investor to this solid oxide fuel cell maker. The investment's gonna be used to expand Elcogen's manufacturing capacity to 100 MW to meet increasing demand, and we expect the construction to commence on a new manufacturing facility in Tallinn before the end of the year, and that will take about 18 months before that starts to come on stream.
So the investment by Hyundai also comes with a strategic intent to set manufacturing, a joint venture in South Korea, which will play an important part, in the marine sector, and we'll expand on that, in future quarters. Sunfire, we invested, a total of GBP 22 million into Sunfire. We own just under 5%, of the business. Sunfire, manufactures large-scale alkaline electrolysers under the HyLink brand. It's a scalable design sold in 10-MW bundles. You can see some of the units there on the left-hand side. The highlight this quarter was, of course, a 100-MW order of our alkaline electrolysers from a large European refinery. These electrolysers are very large scale, producing 99.8% purity for industrial applications. And that's gonna be about 5 tons a day.
To help this growth and expansion in the manufacturing, the company also received IPCEI funding of EUR 169 million from the European Commission. But this is not just- alkaline is a tried and tested technology that's going into these applications, but hydrogen can also be produced for the first time with RWE on a gas-fired power plant in Germany, using the solid oxide technology, and that's an important breakthrough for Sunfire in expanding beyond alkaline technology. Cranfield. We invested GBP 9 million into Cranfield, where we're a dominant shareholder there.
The company is now deploying its hydrogen engines on multiple flight platforms, and at the same time, further developing its intellectual property of actually getting hydrogen-powered flight into the air. The main project that we've always been talking about, of course, is Project Fresson, the conversion of the nine-seater Britten-Norman Islander to run on hydrogen, and that continues. This quarter, Cranfield announced a three-party agreement with MONTE Aircraft Leasing and an Australian air charter company, Torres Strait Air, to convert up to 10 Britten-Norman Islander aircraft to hydrogen electric power. And that's a meaningful breakthrough in terms of revenues and earnings.
Cranfield also signed a letter of intent to apply the same hydrogen fuel cell technology to the propulsion system in the Dronamics' Black Swan cargo drone aircraft that you can see at the top there. And the resultant power propulsion system is half the size of the 250-kW system that's going into Project Fresson. But these are exciting developments showing the whole platform concept moving forward with Cranfield. And then the last example I wanted to talk to you about are the breakthroughs in our two hydrogen producers, Gen2 and HH2E.
Gen2, on the left-hand side there, are developing the first of five green hydrogen projects in Norway, where they're securing grid connections to supply very cheap hydroelectricity to splitting water into hydrogen, and planning consents have been obtained for the 100-MW Nesbruket project. And term sheets have been signed with WINGAS, as we mentioned earlier, for a hydrogen offtake agreement of 15,000 tons a year of green hydrogen. So these projects are real, and they're going ahead. HH2E, similarly developing multiple hydrogen projects in Germany, evidenced by the order for 93 MW of battery storage from BASF, and a reserve of another 140 MW. H2 MOBILITY in Germany have a network of 80 hydrogen stations, which is quite different to what we're seeing in the U.K.
The U.K. is falling behind, but our focus here is really on Germany, and this hydrogen network is going ahead. And H2 MOBILITY in Germany are going ahead with a joint venture with HH2E, as well as signing a collaboration agreement with DHL and Sasol for Sustainable Aviation Fuel development. So the point we're trying to make here is that these projects are real, against the headlines that you're seeing in the U.K. of things slowing down, things are really speeding up on the continent. So let's just round off here, by saying we're well on track this quarter with robust NAV and liquidity of about GBP 9 million. That's cash and listed shares.
Lots of levers to pull in upgrading the NAV over the next three to six months as we get these larger investors like Hyundai coming in to as well, because you must start to factor that into to the NAV. No gearing in the fund. Globally, there have been a number of companies recently that have run into problems, not because they're hydrogen, but because the gearing has put those companies into difficulty with cash flows. This we don't have that problem in this fund or with any of the portfolio companies.
As JJ mentioned, two of the companies in the fund have already appointed banking advisors for potential exit and sale, and that's the mechanism that we're deploying here to get this fund working. Larger industrial strategics continue to join the portfolio. Hyundai this quarter, joining companies like Vitol, ING, Centrica and Neste. So the portfolio's formed of well-established revenue generating businesses, hydrogen projects with attractive takeover potential. So we're well set, and we look forward to delivering you further positive news over the next quarter and coming months. So, thanks very much. Let's see if we can dive into some of the questions. I wonder if, JJ, you've had a chance to
Perfect. Yeah, let's take them in the order they've been tabled. So the first one up was from Tim. So Tim, thanks for the question. And this is around the financial performance and projections of the underlying portfolio companies. I think as we described in the press release, the revenues for these businesses are strong and growing, so up 178% year-over-year to just over GBP 60 million. The typical financial profile of these companies is strong revenue growth, and then EBITDA that is negative with a flight plan to positive EBITDA and positive cash flow in the next two to three years.
If you look at the listed hydrogen sector, Plug, Bloom, Ballard, Nel, those kinds of names, you'll see a very similar financial profile. We are looking for ways to show that information in more detail. We do understand the request from our investors, and we are working on ways to show more, if you like, more transparency on the portfolio underlying, and we hope to bring that back to you with the Q4 or potentially in the annual report in the first part of next year. So Tim, thanks for the question.
Next one was from Jonathan, and I'll perhaps hand over to Richard on the discount rate question. So Jonathan's asking, "Like the thesis," thanks, Jonathan.
"Is HydrogenOne Capital LLP doing anything else other than this investment trust?" And the answer to that is no. Richard and I, and the team around us, which is, you know, there's obviously the six headcount, and then the Advisory B oard and the Plc Board, we're all fully focused on the investment trust, and that's what keeps us busy. Richard?
Yeah, and on the discount rate question, it's a strictly applied CAPM model to each of the companies in the portfolio, where we take the risk-free rate in each of the countries, Norway, Germany, U.K. And we're also taking into account the forward curve on the discount rates, and the risk-free rates has just been moving down in some territories, and we factor that into the calculation. So it's been up slightly in Europe, but, you know, down slightly in the U.K. We're also taking into account the forward curve, and that's having an effect on the discount rate. So down moderately. Yeah, you're right.
So there's a question from Will on Elcogen, and then perhaps, Richard, you want to come back on Pierre's question on M&A. So Will's asking, "What did the Hyundai investment in Elcogen do to the NAV of HydrogenOne in the quarter?" So Elcogen, just to recap, is a solid oxide fuel cell specialist, or leader actually. And they have recently attracted EUR 45 million of investment from Hyundai, from South Korea, and that's all about building a factory in Estonia to really grow the Elcogen production. And Hyundai are interested in that, of course, because they are a big shipping player, and they want to use these fuel cells in green shipping.
So all of that, which is very positive news, for the Elcogen story, that is a Q4 financial event, so these were announcements that were made in October. So the Q3 numbers are unaffected, by the Hyundai announcement, and the movement you're seeing is basically the change in discount rate. And so at the end of the fourth quarter, you'll start to see the impact of the Hyundai investment, in Elcogen. We need to be a bit careful not to preempt what we're going to say in our fourth quarter results here, but just to say that Hyundai's EUR 45 million into Elcogen very much underscores our valuation thesis and our industrial thesis, big capital, you know, big strategic investor.
The uses of that GBP 45 million is to grow the business, and intuitively, that has to be good news for the NAV. So that's the question, Will, on Elcogen.
Yeah, and Pierre's question: "Given the valuations and openness of the public market, do you view M&A as the more likely pathway for value realization for unitholders into 2024?" Pierre, that is the prime method by which the fund is going to generate returns for unitholders. We invest GBP 1 into a European hydrogen project or company, and we exit that project for, hopefully, you know, GBP 2-GBP 5. That is the model for the fund.
I think we've moved into interesting territory now for renewables as a whole, and particularly for hydrogen, where M&A is definitely going to start featuring within the markets, because there are some hugely undervalued assets that will not have escaped the attentions of other industry and strategic buyers that are taking a longer-term view on the hydrogen sector. And we're definitely seeing and hearing about that sort of thing, hence two of our companies having already appointed investment banking advisors. So yes, that is the prime method of making returns from the fund. That and, of course, IPO.
I think the IPO market is, the door's pretty firmly closed at the moment, but we expect that to open up next year as well. But yeah, M&A is one of the prime methods for making return.
Simon's asking about INEOS, and then Richard, there's a question from Mark about the share price. So INEOS, Simon's question is around INEOS' role in HydrogenOne. So look, INEOS backed the IPO with a cornerstone investment of GBP 25 million. They are currently around a 20% shareholder in the fund. They are a long-term holder. This is, for them, a strategic investment. They have the right to a Board seat on the HydrogenOne Plc, and they've taken those rights. The Director is a gentleman called David Bucknall, who's the CEO of INEOS Energy.
I mean, we can't speak directly for them, of course, but they are keen to grow their activities in hydrogen, which is, you know, very complementary to their chemicals businesses and some of their upstream businesses. So, you know, that's INEOS, long term, very supportive shareholder.
Yes, and to the question about not being in control of the share price, what's driving it? Well, we ask ourselves this day and night at the moment, because we're doing everything we can to manage the assets in the portfolio. We're seeing a strong hydrogen market, demand for the products, and revenues increasing. So what's going on? Absolutely fair question. Our only explanation is that if it's not something we're doing, it must be something happening externally. And, of course, we can, all of us see a very nervous stock market at the moment.
Global events being very unsettling to a lot of investors, and then the fundamentals of interest rates being very high, about supply chain shortages. It's no surprise that people are not interested in taking a risk and investing into growth at the moment, and that's where we are. People are getting nervous about renewables and hydrogen. Don't be nervous about renewables and hydrogen. Things are going well from where we can see. Peculiarities occurring, it's because of the way people have managed their balance sheets. But in terms of the hydrogen sector itself, it's looking good from where we're standing. So we will carry on. We will make sure that we start to talk.
We actually see some exits from some of these assets over the next few months, particularly in 2024. But we're not even in control of that. We can't see, we're not in the minds of the decision makers amongst the strategic buyers, who we know are already looking seriously at picking up bargains in the sector. So those are the sorts of things that will change the share price. It will be other deals like Hyundai and larger investors coming into our existing portfolio, and then exiting from some of these assets as people suddenly start to see back to the previous question about M&A, and that will really start to make a difference.
So Tim and Will are asking similar questions around the future funding commitments of portfolio companies, and then what that means in terms of dilution or potential dilution for our investors. So look, I mean, a number of the portfolio companies are interested to raise capital. You saw the Elcogen and Hyundai announcement, and this is a pretty normal activity for relatively early stage private equity companies that are pre-cash. So in some circumstances, we have been putting in follow-on investments, and you've seen GBP 1.6 million of follow-on investments this quarter. And in some situations, we've stayed out and let others take our place.
What we are seeing and what we expect to continue to see is larger investors, so institutions and industrial strategics coming in at a higher valuation than our investment, you know, which has been made over the last 18 months to two years. That step in the valuation, and in some situations, the anti-dilution clauses, means that we don't expect to see dilution of our value. So our percentage share may reduce as these rounds go forward, but that doesn't mean our carrying value necessarily goes down. So Tim, that those are to your questions.
Quick question about milestones that are useful, milestones that will... or key milestones coming up within the portfolio of companies over the next few months. Yes, two key milestones will be a final investment decision on the HH2E projects in Germany or the first Thierbach project. And then the Nesbruket project, which is the first project that Gen2 are kicking off beginning of next year. Those are key, and as JJ has already indicated on HH2E, we've got a mainstream European bank involved, getting that putting the debt funding in place. So yeah, the funding of projects is key.
I think the other one we've mentioned is that you've seen Hyundai announce its investment into Elcogen, the next milestone will actually be building the factory to actually start producing those new units. JJ, are there any other milestones that you can think of in your
I mean, we're all looking forward to Cranfield Aerospace delivering first flight on a hydrogen-powered airplane, and that's scheduled for next year. Brian's asking which companies have appointed banking advisors for divestment. Brian, I'm sorry, we're not able to answer that. We know the answer, obviously, but we're not able to answer that question. We need to let those companies run their processes in the confidential way that is normal, and I'm sure you understand that. Andrew is asking about the carry fee that we're highlighting, and could we talk more about fees in general?
So the fee structure for the fund is a fee of 1.5% on the assets under management, and then a carry on the realizations from the funds. So as and when we sell positions, we need to deliver a hurdle rate, which is 8% per annum, and then above the hurdle there is the 15% carry, 15% carry, which is, I have to say, low versus standard private equity, which is typically a 20% carry. Richard and I have both committed to use some of the proceeds from that carry to purchase more shares in the investment trust on the public markets, and that commitment is set out in the prospectus, and nothing's changed.
The accrual that we are highlighting in the results, that is a non-cash accrual. So that really is the mathematics of the growing NAV, and then ultimately what that might—what that would mean in terms of the carry payments. But as I say today, that's a non-cash effect going through onto the balance sheet.
Um-
So, Andrew.
Yeah, another question, Andrew. The significant volatility in the share price. Yeah, I think that we need to talk about this. In spite of the long-term thesis, has the shareholder register changed much of late? The volatility really comes from retail trading of the shares. The institutional part of the register is very solid, and there are... And we talk to those shareholders regularly, and there are no changes that those investors are in a better position to take a long-term view. And they're solid and committed to the investment thesis.
So it's really coming from a retail turnover, which is obviously taking, you know, a shorter-term view on the markets and the sector, as a whole. So I think we're being caught up as a growth fund in that, that's not going down too well with retail investors at the moment.
Richard, there's a question about HiiROC. Do you want to, as the Board M ember there, do you want to-
Yes. Yeah, HiiROC, we had about six months ago, it was factored into the valuation of the company. There were some problems with a testing of one of the units on the Centrica site, which has now been overcome. So the things had slowed down slightly. Now they've speeded up again, and so we're now looking at a fully certified product that we can start rolling out for sale next year. And HiiROC are busy filling up the order book with global investors.
There's quite a lot of interest from the oil and gas sector because you can put a HiiROC unit on where you're flaring gas, particularly useful in the Middle East, where you can produce, you produce carbon on a sort of 5-to-1 ratio with hydrogen. So all that carbon is being used by key investors like, Kia, and Hyundai as well, again, for making tires. But in the Middle East, you can mix it with fertilizer, you can start greening up the desert. So, yeah, HiiROC is now into the commercial phase of order book for getting HiiROC units sold into the marketplace after a long but very rigorous testing period.
Tim's asked a couple of questions on the impact of U.S. hydrogen policy on HydrogenOne, and then what factors do we take into account when we decide to sell a portfolio position. So on the U.S. side, we're not directly invested in U.S. businesses. It is in our mandate, but we've found plenty of things to invest in Europe currently. What we are seeing is a couple of things. Firstly, supply chains are tightening as a result of improved demand pull from the U.S., and this is as the U.S. moves into specifically the green hydrogen sector. So this is a positive supply chain effect for electrolyser and fuel cell, and we have some good investments in that.
I think the second thing to flag is that a number of our portfolio companies are considering what is their U.S. strategy. And, you know, the U.S. has come from a position of being quite agnostic on green hydrogen to actually being one of the global leaders on it in a very short space of time. And so, you know, what is the corporate response to that? Perhaps it's building a factory in the U.S. or setting a JV in the U.S. So we're seeing those two effects, supply chains and then corporate development. The second question Tim asked is around the, you know, how do we decide to sell a portfolio position versus holding it on for longer?
I mean, look, the way this works is we are typically a significant minority in the private businesses, and so this is a decision, the exit decision is something that's taken collectively by the boards, and we're a big voice in those decisions. In terms of when to exit, we're very driven by NAV. So Richard said, you know, our model is to invest GBP 1 and get GBP 2-GBP 5 back, and so if we see an opportunity in that range, then we'll very much be interested in that investment.
Simon is asking questions about... I think what he means is if the IPO market doesn't pick up over the next 24 months, and the chances of trade sale. Well, I think as we said before, most of the exit potential is probably from trade sale, and we're very much connected to the strategic global hydrogen market. We talk to people like Siemens Energy, the oil service companies, the oil companies themselves about their plans for long-term switch over to hydrogen, and that is likely going to be the exit for most of the portfolio companies.
So we're not really dependent upon the market for the IPO exit option, but that as and when it comes would be an interesting option for us. But it's more likely to be through trade sale.
Another quick question from Selwyn, after the first round of capital being released through M&A, do you have targets for reinvestment? And, I think this plays back into, a question about, you know, returning cash. I think if we're sitting on a pot of cash and we're, which probably means that we've had some exits, if there really are no other useful places for us to deploy the, the capital into the hydrogen market, and the hydrogen market has peaked, and we don't think the returns are there, then that's probably a point to start thinking about returning cash to investors. But, unless investors are really insistent, I mean, we could, there's nothing to say we wouldn't, if that's what people want us to do.
But we really see so much, so many bargains out there actually, in terms of assets and companies that we could deploy capital into. We, we really would advise strongly that we should be reinvesting, having proven that, that we can, we can make, generate a return, through the cash coming from an exit in the first place.
TBD has asked an interesting question, actually: how much would you have to increase your discount rate in order to equate NAV with the current share price? That is a great question. I think at least 3x increased in discount rate, and I'm not even sure that would fully close the gap on the share price. We think there's an awful lot of market sentiment reflected in the discount in our share price, and frankly, other growth funds and renewables in general. I'm not sure there's a straight mathematical solution to this. It's much more about the macro headwinds, the perception people have of the interest rate cycle, the risk-off nature of the market.
But yeah, per your question, you would have an extraordinarily high discount rate to purely explain the share price that you see today, at a rate that would be frankly unrealistic.
Straight question: "Have you invested into Enapter?" Yes, a very, very, very small amount. The way we started buying these shares, we started off with smaller positions, and that's one that we never really increased, so it's kind of negligible. The other question that, if it came up, did we invest into Plug? Yes, we did, a couple of years ago, and we got out at a very handsome profit. So we have no exposure to Plug at the moment.
The chances of trade sales. So Simon L. asking the chances of trade sales. I think we may have covered that. I mean, we think there's a high chance of trade sales, and we say that because there are major industrials in the oil and gas sector, in the power generation sector, in the transport sector, in the flight sector, who don't have exposure or the correct exposure to hydrogen. And we think those, you know, multibillion corporations are, to some extent, watching the sector evolve, and then at a given moment, they will acquire. And I give you an example. ExxonMobil, which is the biggest private, biggest, publicly listed oil company in the world, they were not involved in a big way in carbon capture.
In the last three months, they spent $5 billion buying a business called Denbury, which is a U.S. Lower 48 carbon capture company. So big business does tend to watch the private sector nurture technologies, and then at the given moment, make the strategic acquisition. So we think that is very much on the table in the hydrogen sector.
Okay, I think that's it on questions. Can we hand the mic back to...
One more has just come in, Richard. So Mark H.: "How do the valuation metrics of the public and private investments compare?" So look, we updated on this with our interims back in September in some detail. The short answer is that our carrying values in September were 30%-40% lower than the listed comparators. So we continue to believe, first of all, that, you know, frankly, that our share price doesn't reflect our valuations. And secondly, if you want to chase value and add value in this industry, then you're better off being in the private part of the markets than the public piece. So Mark, I think that answers your question. And then-
Last question there on gearing. Yes, the only circumstance that we would bring in gearing is project finance at the project level in the SPVs that sit below Gen2 and HH2E. But well, this really is an equity fund, and we can borrow up to 25% of NAV. But I think if we put any gearing in place, it would be just a, like, a revolving credit facility to manage cash on the downturn between fundraisings.
Pierre K. has made a comment. I won't read it out, but Pierre, thanks very much for the comment. It's highly appreciated and understood. Matthew T., the question is around the economics of share buyback versus reinvestment for future growth. I think we've sort of address that question. I mean, if we get into a situation where there's a cash surplus, you know, a significant cash surplus in the fund, then I'm sure that's a question that the Board will want to have a look at at the appropriate time. But our view is that we're fundamentally going to be adding more value for our investors through investing, growing, and exiting than the share buyback route.
Because, Matthew, the same logic on very cheap shares also applies to the hydrogen market. There are very, very cheap assets to buy as well. So it's still more attractive. Okay, I think that's it. Jake, can we pass it back to you?
Absolutely. Richard, JJ, thank you very much indeed for being so generous of your time and addressing all of those questions that came in from investors this morning. And of course, if there are any further questions that do come through, we'll make these available to you immediately after the presentation has ended, just for you to review, to then add any additional responses, of course, where it's appropriate to do so. But Richard, perhaps before really just looking to redirect those on the call to provide you with their feedback, which I know is particularly important to yourself and the company, if I could please just ask you for a few closing comments just to wrap up with, that'd be great.
Yes, thanks very much, and thank you, everybody, for joining us today. I think the three key catalysts that you need to look out for over the next quarter and the next few months, first of all, bigger and larger, more credible investors like Hyundai coming and joining us in the portfolio, giving full credibility to the investments that we've already made. The exit from some of these investments, which is the mechanism by which the fund generates a return, more news around that. And on the two green hydrogen projects specifically, where we're gonna start building these projects, offtake is gonna start being signed. They're gonna be great poster charts for the hydrogen sector in general.
These are nervous times for everybody. We think the market's in transition. We're transitioning in the right direction. We are in exactly the right position to capture that capital going into what is a fantastic sector, which is hydrogen. Thanks very much, everybody.
Richard, JJ, that's great, and thank you once again for updating investors this morning. Could I please ask investors not to close this session, as you'll now be automatically redirected for the opportunity to provide your feedback in order that the management team can really better understand your views and expectations? This will only take a few moments to complete, but I'm sure will be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of HydrogenOne Capital Growth Plc, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation. That now concludes today's session, so good afternoon to you all.