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Earnings Call: H1 2022

Sep 20, 2022

Sonya Ghobrial
Head of Investor Relations, Haleon

Good morning, good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining the Haleon half year results Q&A call this morning. Hopefully by now you've all seen the presentation and the video of this on the investor section of the website. I'm joined today by Brian McNamara, CEO, and Tobias Hestler, CFO for Haleon for today's session. Before handing back to the operator for the Q&A moderation, I just wanted to draw attention to the disclaimer at the front of the presentation listed on our website. With that, I'd like to hand back to the operator for Q&A. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypads. If you choose to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your phone is unmuted locally. Our first question today comes from Guillaume Delmas of UBS. Guillaume, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Guillaume Delmas
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Thank you very much, and good morning, Brian, Tobias, and Sonya. Two questions for me, please, both on top line. Firstly, on the current consumer environment, I mean, you mentioned, Brian, in your presentation, a bit of down trading. Maybe you could provide more color on this and whether you would expect this trend to accelerate or maybe to become more broad-based across categories and geographies going forward. Along these lines, I mean, any categories where you've seen private label gaining shares, or are you still getting as much traction on your most premium innovations? Then my second question is on your comment about slower growth expected for the second half of this year.

My question here is, to what extent is it just down to a higher basis of comparison in the second half? Or do you also include a healthy level of caution, given the many uncertainties before the upcoming cold and flu season, the lockdowns in China, so many uncertainties currently prevailing in most of your markets? And I guess what I'm trying to get to is, the bottom end of your 6%-8% guidance range could prove quite conservative? Thank you.

Brian McNamara
CEO, Haleon

Thanks for the question, Guillaume. Let me start on the consumer behavior. First of all, just taking a step back, I think the dynamics, you know, that we're seeing is different across markets and regions. You know, for instance, U.S. and Europe, we're seeing quite high inflation as we know, where we're still seeing relatively low inflation in Asia-Pacific region, more in the 2%-3% range. Overall, is that we're seeing elasticities really hold up very well. And what I did comment is you look across categories and markets. There are, you know, potentially places where we see a little bit of down-trading or move to private label. But to be honest with you, it's not something that's impacting our business and it's not significant.

For instance, we see a little bit of that happening in the allergy category in the U.S., but it hasn't really had an impact on us. You know, our categories tend to hold up really well in tough economic times, and we're in healthcare. We meet therapeutic needs. Brands really matter. We have a lot of trust and loyalty. Also in the context of what consumers are experiencing, relatively low, you know, dollar outlay. For us specifically, you know, we have very strong brands and strong equity. You know, we feel good about the outlook and how the business is holding up.

We haven't seen really in the current trading any impact to speak of, and we're continuing to see, you know, good growth in our power brands and good growth in our brands across different categories. Holistically, the dynamic is a little bit different market to market and region to region and a little bit across categories. Overall, I would say nothing on our part that we've seen that worries us. On the comment on slower growth is very much, Guillaume, a just, you know, flagging. We grew 11.6% organically in the first half.

If you remember, the first half of 2021 had almost no cold and flu season, so we saw a real bounce back of that in the first half, and I think we flagged that respiratory itself contributed 4% of growth to our first half results. In the second half of 2021, we saw the rebound in that cold and flu already happening. If you remember last year in Q3 and Q4, we grew double digits. We grew 10% across through Q3 and Q4. There is basically a base issue there, and that's really what we were just flagging for people as you think about the outlook for the balance of the year. We feel good about our current trading and how the brands are performing and holding up in this environment.

Guillaume Delmas
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Thank you very much.

Brian McNamara
CEO, Haleon

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question goes to Chris Pitcher of Redburn. Chris, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Chris Pitcher
Managing Director, Redburn

Thank you very much. A couple of questions for me. Firstly, could you talk in a bit more detail about the competitive environment in therapeutic oral health, specifically sensitivity and gum health? Have you seen any more aggressive competitor activity recently? And in terms of the marketing behind parodontax, if that's all incremental, you're not seeing people switching from other of your brands. And then secondly, on the litigation, obviously you've given us the comment on Zantac. Can we assume therefore there's no change to the PPI litigation? Certainly, our reading is there are mixed positions across the indemnifications between Prevacid and Nexium. Any clarity or update you can give on that would be most helpful. Thank you.

Brian McNamara
CEO, Haleon

Okay. Thanks for the question, Chris. I'll answer the first on the competitive environment and then Tobias, I'll throw it to you on the PPI question. Listen, first of all, Chris, I would say that there's no question that therapeutic oral health is a competitive place. It's a category. You know, GSK, we, now Haleon, have created, you know, over 10 years ago, 10, 15 years ago, and it's done extremely well, and we've done extremely well. We see interest from our other, you know, competitors in this space. That's not new. You know, Crest and Colgate have launched products against those areas over the years and, you know, Gum Detoxify in the U.S., you know, 4 years ago and things like that. We are, you know, seeing the continued competitive activity.

What I do is I feel good about where we are overall in oral health, and you would have seen it in the presentation, but you know, three-quarters of our business gained or maintained share in oral health. We globally grew share in denture, parodontax, and Sensodyne. We've been successful in launching, you know, good innovations in those products. I think specifically to Sensodyne, we've seen share growth in eight of our top 10 markets, and that includes U.S. and China, our top two, and we've seen record shares in India and Japan. You know, as I said before, I'm never complacent with this business. We have very competitors that are obviously focused on this space too. Overall, I feel good about our performance, and we continue to have good plans as we look forward.

Now, on parodontax specifically, we do see the opportunity in gum health, and not much cannibalization between Sensodyne and parodontax. Same thing happened when we launched Sensodyne Sensitivity & Gum a couple of years ago, which was extremely successful and continues to drive growth. That the brands kind of have been you know limited cannibalization between the two. We think both brands have tremendous opportunities going forward, and we believe both gum health and sensitivity are spaces that continue to have headroom based on that household penetration I've talked about quite a bit with a third of consumers suffering from sensitivity and a third you know treating with a sensitivity toothpaste. Tobias?

Tobias Hestler
CFO, Haleon

Thanks, Chris. On the proton pump inhibitors and Nexium, let me maybe just go back and sort of give a bit of the background, right? I mean, I think this litigation is brought against all manufacturers of prescriptions and over-the-counter products in this space. For example, AstraZeneca, Takeda, GSK, Pfizer, and all named co-defendants in connection with those products. Now, clear to say, Haleon does not believe that the body of the scientific literature constitutes any evidence that there is an association between PPI usage and the injuries that were alleged by the plaintiffs. Secondly, also, the FDA continues to approve Nexium and Prevacid as safe and effective and has not made any changes to the labeling of those over-the-counter products. That's maybe the background.

Secondly, the litigation is predominantly focused on prescription medicines, and the products we have involved in the litigation are both over-the-counter medicines. We filed motions to dismiss several hundred cases. Those remain pending before the court. I think you ask about sort of the liability. For Nexium, the liabilities are with us because we have marketed that and so since it was launched OTC. For Prevacid, it's a bit different. Here, the liabilities are with us for the duration of the Novartis joint venture. Any pre-Novartis joint venture liabilities would go back to Novartis because it was under their watch. If it's above a certain minimum or de minimis threshold.

Here, we of course would be working with Novartis if there would be any liabilities coming to us. I mean, overall, no change. The cases have been around for a while, so nothing new on that either in the recent history.

Chris Pitcher
Managing Director, Redburn

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question goes to Olivier Nicolaï of Goldman Sachs. Olivier, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Olivier Nicolaï
Head of Consumer Staples Research, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Just a quick question, actually, on Sensodyne. Just more follow-up from previous questions. In Q2, you flagged a bit of a slowdown in the brand. I think you mentioned China at the time. Was just wondering if you could give us a bit of an update on the current trading on the brand, and if we can assume that Sensodyne can go back towards its double-digit growth rate, which it has enjoyed for the last few years. Thank you.

Brian McNamara
CEO, Haleon

Thanks for the question. Yeah. A couple of things about Sensodyne. First, to look at the first half. We grew 8% in oral care, and obviously, Sensodyne being a big piece of that. We grew 8% in Q1, 2% in Q2. Now, as you may recall, in Q1, we had a pull-up from Q2 of 2% on the overall business, and that was driven by the systems cutover we did. That did disproportionately impact the oral care business because the oral care business leans much towards mass market than, let's say, the balance of our business, which is quite a pharmacy-driven business in places like Europe. I'd say that's one thing. It's probably more important to look at the first half numbers than it would be to look at Q1 versus Q2.

Separately on China, absolutely. You know, China is an important business for us and a good business for us on Sensodyne. During the lockdowns in Q2, we definitely saw the market begin to contract a little bit, overall market. We did grow share in the context of a contracting market, but that had an impact on our growth rates in Q2. You know, as far as current trading, I feel good about Sensodyne in the back half, no question. There are some dynamics just to be aware of between Q3 and Q4. If you remember, last year, we flagged that we took pricing in October of last year in the U.S., and we saw some forward buying into Q3 last year.

If I look at the back half of the year, I feel good about. You know, where, how the business is trading and the, and the outlook, and it's a big focus for us. This is a great brand and great category.

Tobias Hestler
CFO, Haleon

Olivier, maybe just from my side, sort of on the medium-term outlook. Right, we had said at the Capital Markets Day that between Oral Health and VMS, we believe those categories together to grow mid- to high-single-digit . I think that's for us sort of the guidance we've been given on that.

Olivier Nicolaï
Head of Consumer Staples Research, Goldman Sachs

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question goes to Iain Simpson of Barclays. Iain, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Iain Simpson
European Consumer Staples Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Thanks very much. Couple from me, if I may. Firstly, on Panadol, that up in the mid-20%, you flagged the U.K., but I just wondered if you could give some color on what other geographies were driving that, and also how the supply chain is holding up given those kind of growth rates in Panadol. Secondly, Caltrate, you know, that was clearly a brand that you had high hopes for. I was just wondering, is there any drags from China lockdown on that H1 growth number, and what would success look like over the next couple of years for Caltrate, given that it's currently growing a little bit slower than wider VMS. I kinda get a sense that perhaps longer term, you're expecting it to do a bit better.

Brian McNamara
CEO, Haleon

Great. Thanks, Iain. Appreciate the question. Let me start with Panadol. Panadol did grow in the mid-20%. We actually saw pretty broad-based growth. It's a really strong brand for us in Asia and places like Malaysia and Philippines and others. Australia, it's a big brand. You know, we flagged it in the presentation, but we, you know, we did a campaign behind Panadol, the We Care campaign, which really educated consumers on the role that Panadol can play, you know, post-vaccination. We saw that really give quite a boost to the brand. The growth was quite healthy. Share growth was really strong in Panadol. Again, we also flagged the U.K. as a market that did quite well on Panadol.

As far as supply chain supply challenges, listen, demand has been high, and like most supply chains, we're working to meet the demand. We've done a pretty good job. We've been able to support that demand. There's no question that the supply chain is under some pressure in that area, and we're reacting appropriately and ensuring that we can meet the demand going forward. On Caltrate, listen, no question that in China, you know, we saw an impact of the lockdown across a number of brands across the portfolio. You know, the lockdown dynamic was such that people were literally not able to go to stores and get their products.

I would say there was, you know, an impact broadly across China and certainly in Q2 and for the quarter. What I didn't say on the Sensodyne comment, though, that I should have, honestly, is we're seeing in current trading that China's bouncing back. The market overall was in negative, you know, consumption growth in Q2. We're seeing that back to growth. We're seeing our growth ahead of that. We grew overall our share in China during the lockdown period, and we continue to do that. Wouldn't kinda give you a growth estimate on what we expect Caltrate to do going forward, but we're still very bullish about the VMS category in China and the role that Caltrate can play in China.

I also think we flagged in the presentation some stuff that we've been doing with consumers there around, you know, around mobility and calcium and osteoarthritis and educating them. As we said before, very in line with the Healthy China 2030, where osteoarthritis is one of the pillars for them.

Iain Simpson
European Consumer Staples Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question goes to Faham Baig of Credit Suisse. Faham, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Faham Baig
VP of Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Hi. Good morning, guys. Thanks for the question. I'll stick with the motto of two as well. First, on the Zantac litigation, what has provided you with the increased confidence to now reject GSK and Pfizer's request for indemnification compared to last month, when you released a statement suggesting that you may be required to indemnify if certain conditions were met? And the second question is on pricing. Would you say the majority of your pricing is now in the market, or should we expect a further acceleration in pricing year-on-year in the second half to offset any additional costs you may be facing? Thank you.

Brian McNamara
CEO, Haleon

Great. Thanks for the questions. I'll answer the Zantac question and then pass it to Tobias on the pricing. I'll take an opportunity maybe to give the broader perspective on Zantac. It's important to remember that we're not a defendant in any of these lawsuits. As people know, it's other companies or defendants. You know, Haleon or the GSK/Pfizer joint venture never marketed Zantac in the U.S. or Canada. We've been consistent in saying that the liability has not been determined, and we never said we accepted the liability. It's our view that we don't have any liability, given the indemnity obligations relate to GSK and Pfizer businesses that existed at the time when the JV was formed, and that was in 2008.

At that time, the Zantac OTC business didn't exist in the U.S. or Canada. We confirmed that in a formal response to GSK and Pfizer. That's what we had shared today. We noted that in the announcement. We thought it was important that we clarified that stance, not only for GSK and Pfizer, but for all our shareholders. That's pretty customary in a situation like this. I know there's a lot of interest in Zantac. There's not a lot more that we can say today. It's a legal matter, it's our view, and we feel very strongly about our stance with that position that we don't have any liability.

Faham Baig
VP of Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Brian, you meant 2018 or 2008?

Brian McNamara
CEO, Haleon

Yeah. You know what? I just got a note that said 2018 on it, and now I know why. Apologize. Yes. The JV was formed in 2018, and it was at that time. Apologize for the mistake. Tobias?

Tobias Hestler
CFO, Haleon

Good. On pricing, I mean, first of all, I mean, we've done 3.7% pricing in half one, and then you've seen this go up. We did 2.7% in Q1. It went up to 4% in Q2. You've seen the price increases come up and increase as the businesses have driven pricing actions to offset the impact from the inflationary headwinds. I think feel good about that. We would expect to continue to see continued price increases. Now, of course, it's geographically a little bit different. As Brian mentioned earlier, Asia-Pacific, lower inflation environment. What's really key for us is that we are also driving volume mix, and we've done in Q2 a 4% volume mix, and in Q1 we did 13%.

I think for us, this is really a matter of moderating the price increases in order to enable sale volume growth. I would expect pricing to continue to increase. Also, don't forget in half two, especially in Q4 last year, we took massive price increases in the U.S. between 5%-10% of about half the portfolios. There's also base effect you're gonna hit later in the year. I mean, more broadly, our intent is to offset the impact of inflationary headwinds with a combination of price increases and efficiencies that we drive through the portfolio.

Faham Baig
VP of Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question goes to James Edwardes Jones of RBC. James, please go ahead. Your line is open.

James Edwardes Jones
Managing Director of Consumer Research, RBC

Morning, everyone. Two again, I'm afraid. On Zantac, just to come back to it, you rejected GSK and Pfizer's request for indemnification. Now, if they don't accept your rejection, what do you expect to happen next? Secondly, are you able to say if Hurricane Fiona is going to have any material impact on your supply to North America?

Brian McNamara
CEO, Haleon

Okay. Thank you, James. Listen, on Zantac, I don't really want to speculate on what happens from here. What I can say is we're very clear in our position. That's why we made that statement today, informed GSK and Pfizer and let our broader shareholder base know. You know, what happens from here, I don't really wanna speculate.

Tobias Hestler
CFO, Haleon

Good. Then on your question on the hurricane in Puerto Rico. As you know, might know, we have a significant factory there. One of our sites that supports North America is there. Now happy to report what we've heard back over the weekend. No impact to any of our employees, so they're all safe. Also, no damages to our factory. There's a little bit of flooding in the surrounding areas. Of course, I mean, as the whole island was out of power, we were too. I think the team is working there to bring the site back up. Now I mean all of our people are safe.

I think from our perspective, we're used to that you have a hurricane here and there, right? We don't think it has a major impact on our business, assuming that the overall power in the island is gonna come up for sure in the next days. Yeah.

James Edwardes Jones
Managing Director of Consumer Research, RBC

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question today, please press Star followed by one on your telephone keypads now. Our next question goes to Karel Zoete of Kepler Cheuvreux. Karel, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Karel Zoete
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

All right. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I also have two. The first one is on your performance in Germany. You mentioned it was back a bit. And more broadly, can you speak about Voltaren's performance in Europe? The other question is on the cough and cold season and your flu products and pain in APAC. What are the early signs of the upcoming flu season? Is there anything you can read into what you're seeing in Australia and how are discussions going with the retailers in the Northern Hemisphere early in the season? Thank you.

Brian McNamara
CEO, Haleon

Great. First, the performance on Germany. We did flag that, Germany was a bit softer for us. We are seeing a bit of a turnaround in Germany, and we're actually seeing our consumption growth now ahead of the market. The market isn't particularly growing, particularly strong to be clear, but we're ahead of the market growth. Now on Voltaren, the dynamic in Voltaren is interesting. If you think about the pain relief category, there's both topicals and systemics. You know, we're the largest topical player in the world, and Voltaren is the number one OTC topical pain reliever in the world. What happens in high cold and flu seasons is you tend to see systemics do quite well, systemic pain relief pills, things like Tylenol and Advil, and topicals not do as well.

We've definitely seen higher growth in the overall pain category, but lower growth in the topical category. That obviously impacts Voltaren. Now, we've been able to benefit on Panadol and Advil on the systemic side of the category. Our portfolio is kind of a natural hedge in a way to that dynamic. Absolutely, the slower growth in the topical category, hence you're seeing lower growth in Voltaren. Still a fantastic brand and one we're very focused on and believe will be a key part of the portfolio for time to come. It's an excellent brand.

In cold and flu, listen, it's just hard to speculate now because the world has changed so much between, you know, the what happened in cold and flu a year ago and Omicron acting more like cold and flu. Absolutely, what we've seen is extremely high instances in Australia. In the past, that does tend to link to higher instances in the northern hemisphere. We're seeing customers interested in ensuring they have enough products for the cold and flu season, so no question about that. Also remember that last year was a relatively high incidence of cold and flu in the U.S. and Europe as it was already the beginning of the bounce back from the year before when we saw very little due to, you know, due to social distancing and mask wearing and things.

Karel Zoete
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We currently have no further questions. I will now hand over to Brian McNamara for any closing remarks.

Brian McNamara
CEO, Haleon

Okay. Well, first of all, thanks, everyone. We appreciate the time to connect with you today. Hopefully, you see the first half reiterates that the business is doing well, and we're well on track to deliver on our guidance, and our strategy is delivering good growth. Please contact the IR team with any follow-up questions, and hope you all have a good day. Thanks again.

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