Hello everyone, and thank you for joining me, Haleon Q3 2026 Q&A. My name is Claire, and I will be coordinating your call today. I would now like to hand over to Jo Russell, Head of Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Haleon's conference call for our Q3 trading statement. I am Jo Russell, Head of Investor Relations, and I am joined this morning by Brian McNamara, our Chief Executive Officer, and Dawn Allen, our Chief Financial Officer. Just to remind listeners on the call that in the discussions today, the company may make certain forward-looking statements, including those that refer to our estimates, plans, and expectations. Please refer to this morning's announcement and the company's U.K. and SEC filings for more details, including factors that could lead to actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. We have posted today's presentation on the website this morning, along with a video running through the results in detail. Hopefully, you have all had the chance to see that ahead of this call.
With that, I hand back to the operator and we can open for Q&A.
Thank you. To ask a question on today's call, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask a question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Guillaume Delmas from UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, and good morning, Brian, Dawn, and Jo. I've got two questions, please. The first one is on Q3. Brian, you talk about a quarter that was below your expectations. Maybe can you walk us through the key areas of softness that you are unhappy with versus what is more like temporary adverse effects that should correct relatively quickly? I guess, Brian, if you could shed some light on how you are addressing these pockets of weakness and how quickly you think you can fix them. My second question, it's on your outlook for the year. It does seem to imply a fourth quarter organic sales growth, quite similar to what you just reported in Q3. Appreciate Brazil, Centrum in China will be headwinds, but I thought a favorable comparator.
We have a good start to the cold and flu season in the U.S. and some continued operational progress, particularly in North America. All that should also come through in the fourth quarter numbers. Or maybe is it just like you being purposely cautious only one month into the quarter? Any color on the Q4 building blocks would be great. Thank you.
All right. Listen, thanks, Guillaume. Listen, I'm going to start with the full-year outlook, and then I'll come back to Q3. I may ask Dawn to also make some comments. First of all, let me say I get it and understand that the full-year guidance is a disappointment. Let me first talk through the moving pieces in Q4, and then I want to give a little bit of bigger picture perspective on the business and where I think things are at, and then I can come back through Q3, Guillaume. Listen, on Q4, fundamentally, we believe the interventions we're making in North America are having an impact. We see that in oral health, we see that in Centrum, we see it in places across the business. But there's a couple areas. Well, there's one area that's taken longer than expected, and that's in pain relief.
We have competitive launches in Q4. We do expect we're going to have an impact in Q4. We want to be transparent about that. We have our own innovation launching at the end of the quarter that we believe is going to set us up for much stronger performance in 2027, but it's going to be a drag in Q4. Also, if you look at North America, in Q3, we had double-digit growth on oral health, on Sensodyne. Listen, the business is doing incredibly well in North America. We don't expect continued double-digit growth on Sensodyne. Wouldn't expect it, don't need it going forward. We also are lapping a price increase in Q4 last year. Then if I look across the businesses, India continues to drive mid to high teens growth. That will continue. Middle East, Africa, mid-single digit growth. Europe continued to be challenging.
Now, we mentioned the two factors, the classification change for Centrum OTC in China. That will have an impact on Q4, and the change to the go-to-market model in Brazil, in Latin America in Q4. I want to be clear. This is something we had planned in doing in 2027. Given the tax change that is happening towards the end of the year, we decided to pull that forward. It is going to have an impact on the full year.
It will set us up for high single digit, double-digit growth in Latin America in 2027 in a sustainable way. Now let me touch base on cold and flu. So clearly, cold and flu the past four weeks are up in the high teens from a category perspective. We are slightly ahead of that. So we fully expect that the category will grow in Q4, but we are four weeks in. I have been associated with this category a long time, and it is very hard to predict what is going to happen. So we do not know what is going to happen going forward, but we do know that we will grow versus a year ago in North America.
Now, perspective, it is 30% of our business in the U.S. So 70% of our cold and flu business is outside the U.S. And frankly, to date, we have not seen the season start. It has been slightly down. It varies market to market, to be honest with you, but it has been slightly down. So we are expecting at least flat versus a year ago and potentially some growth, but we have not seen anything to indicate the season is here yet as we look at the guidance. So we are calling it as we see it, where we are standing today on the full year.
Now maybe just taking a step back for a second. If I think about all the changes that we are making on the business, I fundamentally believe we are doing the right thing and they are the right changes. Now they need to translate to growth, and I am very clear of that. The operating model changes we are making are right, and I am seeing proof points and benefits. We started in North America, and we have seen the changes in North America help really strengthen our performance there.
Not declaring victory, still have work to do. But if I am honest, it is probably taken a little longer and it has been a bit more disruptive than I would have expected. And for perspective, we are rewiring the company. We are changing innovation, the way we are doing innovation. I believe that is going to have a positive impact on 2027.
How we are doing commercial execution, our marketing model, we have significantly improved how we are engaging with consumers, how we are driving commercial execution with the latest tools and technology we put in place, how we are doing resource allocation. So I believe all those things as we go into 2027 is going to help us change the trajectory of the business and strengthen the growth of the business, but they have not yet played out yet in full force.
But everything we are doing is in train, and will get embedded as we go forward. And we are acting with extreme urgency and pace to make sure we get those things in place. Maybe we step back to your question on Q3. Listen, you have seen the couple one-offs. Obviously, we do not like the one-off Centrum OTC classification issue, and the cold and flu category down versus a year ago.
I think the comment you asked me, I will ask Dawn to talk more about Q3, but I think you asked me what are the other things that may be below my expectations. I think I made that comment in my last question, which is the operating model change, right thing to do. I think we are heading in the right direction. It has taken a bit longer to do. But maybe, Dawn, I give you the Q3 perspective.
Thanks, Brian. Hi, Guillaume. In terms of Q3, let us just be clear, Q3 was below our expectations. What were we expecting? We were expecting North America to strengthen, emerging markets to accelerate, and Europe to remain challenging. What have we seen? North America did not strengthen as much as we expected. That was due to low cough, cold and flu consumption, down high single digits in Q3, which reduced in lower shipments. That had around a 40 to 50 basis points impact on the group. In terms of emerging markets, we did see an acceleration, double digit growth in India. We saw MEA back to high single digit growth. In China, a strong underlying growth, high single digit, but that was impacted by the Centrum OTC raw material classification issue, which was around 50 basis points on the group. In terms of Europe did remain challenging.
Our portfolio remains resilient in that backdrop, but units are down mid-single digits from a category perspective in Q3. Overall, as I said, Q3 below our expectations, and Brian talked about the actions that we are accelerating and moving at pace to drive stronger growth moving forward.
Thank you very much. Very clear.
Thank you. The next question comes from Warren Ackerman from Barclays. Warren, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, Brian, Dawn. It's Warren here at Barclays. Can we go back to this China thing? Just a bit unclear on this. When did you know about this change in the classification between OTC and food grade ingredients? It sounds like it's going to continue into Q4 and it's not like it sounds like you thought you could have a fix to it, but then there was no fix. What changed in your discussions with the Chinese authorities? How long is it going to take to actually get a proper solution for this? Because I guess this is the new news today.
Secondly, just on the longer term guidance, Brian, given the print this year, I know it's been a perennial question, but was there any sort of thinking at the board level just to get that guide down in the medium term? Because clearly bridging from 2.5% to 4%- 6% looks even tougher. Thanks.
Thanks, Warren. Listen, let me start with China, and give you a sense of what happened and what we knew and what we see going forward. First of all, let me say we do have a strong business in China. It'll continue to be a key growth driver for us. But this is going to have an impact. Centrum is roughly 30% of our Chinese VMS business. The way it works in China on VMS is some things are classified as over the counter and some things are classified as food grade. OTC Centrum is about half of our Centrum business in China, and it's distributed through pharmacies. OTC-classified products can't be sold on e-com, things like Douyin and regular e-com.
If you look at the two businesses, our China OTC business and our Centrum OTC business, and our Centrum health food business, health food business is roughly 90% on e-com, growing pretty healthy double digits. The Centrum OTC business has been more of a flat kind of growth business. Now, we, over time, have been shifting our portfolio from OTC to health food, so this business looked very different five years ago, where it was a vast majority in OTC. We continue to drive that. We were in discussions with the Chinese health authorities over the summer through mid-September kind of timing. As you can imagine, as we're having conversations with health authorities, they're quite sensitive, and actually we're quite sensitive to sharing any specific discussions we've had with the health authorities in China.
What became clear towards the end of the quarter is that there is not going to be a short-term solution for this. Frankly, we don't see, as we sit here now, necessarily a solution in 2027. So we are working to mitigate the issue. It's not a safety issue. It's not a quality issue. There's no issue like that, which is why we felt like we could come up with a resolution. We are working to mitigate it really by driving the portfolio we have in China and making some portfolio changes. We're launching Benefiber in China in Q4. We've accelerated that launch because that is another e-commerce opportunity for us. So we're doing everything to mitigate, but the reality is we don't have a path to get back to market on market at this point in time. So our assumption is this will also go through 2027.
Yeah, sorry, guys. On the long-term guidance, thanks for the question, Warren. Listen, I fundamentally believe this is a business that should be able to grow in that 4%-6% range. Now we haven't done it for a couple of years, so I understand that that raises a very big question, and we need to improve. Fundamentally, we have been dealt with categories that have been slower than expected. We are taking very clear actions, by the way, that should not only accelerate our growth, but also accelerate category growth. We are taking those actions to do it. I talked about some of that. We revamped our innovation program. We're revamping our marketing model, how we do commercial execution. All this is part of the new operating model that we're putting in place.
At this point in time, I still believe this is a business that can do it. We have great brands and great categories. We need to demonstrate that and prove that to everybody. Now, as we look at going into next year, I fully expect the changes we're making will give us stronger growth and improved performance in 2027.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you. The next question comes from David Hayes from Jefferies. David, your line's open. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning also. So question for me just on the margin and the reinvestment plan. The profit guide is held today, even though sales growth has been below your expectation, to your point. So where is that coming from in terms of the gross margin holding up? Is it quicker and deeper cost saves that are more than compensating, or I guess the question will be, is there an A&P spend change in the plan that means profit's still coming through? Then looking into next year, in terms of the profit outlook, if we're kind of assuming a 3.5% top-line growth with some of those adjustments that you've called out just now in terms of the impacts going into the year, where do you think the margin could end up next year?
Does it still go up, or do you plan, to pick up on your last point, Brian, about the category acceleration and your acceleration here, will you be spending more in pricing and brand investments to try and get that volume growth to step up? Does that mean the margin guide midterm might be a little bit more lumpy over the next few years? Thank you.
All right. Thank you, David. I will pass that to Dawn. Dawn?
Yeah. Thanks for the question, David. First of all, let me talk about this year. I will just start off by saying we continue to invest to drive growth in this business. We invest at A&P at a healthy level, and we are also investing A&P ahead of revenue growth. The second thing to say is we continue to see strong progress from our supply chain productivity program. We saw that in the first half of this year. We expect that to continue through the second half. That will cover the on-costs that we are seeing for Middle East this year. In addition, we also have the start of the operating model change savings as well. When you look this year, full year, as I said, we continue to invest.
In terms of consensus, adjusting for flat FX for this year, then I am comfortable with consensus in terms of margin this year. If we look to next year, obviously, lots of moving parts in terms of inflation, in terms of COGS. The situation is volatile, it is uncertain. So that is about scenarios and ranges rather than definitive numbers. Our objective is to mitigate that on cost, primarily through productivity savings, both supply chain and operating model savings. We will also look to optimize price pack architecture as well. As I said, there are lots of moving parts, but that would be our objective. The other thing I would say, when we look to next year, we are focused on driving progress in terms of top-line performance, and so we will continue to invest at healthy levels in the business.
Obviously, when we get to full-year results, we will provide specific guidance on the year.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Jeremy Fialko from HSBC. Jeremy, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, a couple questions from me. In the prepared remarks, you referenced some of the changes in U.K. execution and also U.S. revenue growth management, which you are rolling out to other geographies. Is there any way you can perhaps quantify or spell out the sort of benefits you have seen from those? And then the second question is on innovation. Again, if there is any way you can perhaps give some sort of a color as to how much greater or how much bigger the innovation pipeline is for 2027 relative to 2026. Thanks.
Well, listen, let me start with the innovation question. Carl, our new Head of R&D, joined just a bit over a year ago. We have taken a big step back on our innovation program priorities, investment, how we do things. I think we have made tremendous progress in the last year that makes me much more optimistic going in the third year. First of all, on oral health, listen, this is a business that continues to perform well, and our innovation program in oral health for 2027 continues to be incredibly strong, and we now have a much clearer view of how that will go beyond the next two to three years also. If we look across the other business, like I said, we have a very big FDA-approved launch that will happen on Advil at the end of the year.
We have really strong innovation across a number of areas in digestive health, and frankly, a very big program on Centrum and Wellness next year, which is also a global program. I feel very good about it. Obviously, we never share too many specifics for competitive reasons, but there are a step change in our innovation program as we go forward. If I step back and your question on commercial execution, listen, we're not going to give very specific kind of impact of each of those initiatives. But what I would say is we started in the U.S. Again, it's not like we haven't done revenue growth management in the past, but we've created better tools, much more sophisticated tools, obviously leveraging the current AI technology. We rolled that out in the U.S. in the first half of the year.
Absolutely seeing benefits from that, and that is the program we're now taking, and we've begun this. But through Q4 and Q1, we're going to roll out broadly, and it should be embedded in our top 20 markets by the time we get to Q1. The other programs we've put in place around Perfect Store and commercial execution, we've had them in the past, to be clear. We have enhanced them, again, leveraging the latest technology and the data that we have. We've seen improvement in Q4. I mean, in the U.K., as we said. But again, that's going to get rolled out in the majority of our top 20 markets. It's happening now over Q4 and Q1. Then maybe I turn it to Dawn to see if she has anything else. Have I left you anything else, Dawn?
Let me give you a couple of examples because on the AI tools that we're leveraging in terms of pricing, promo mechanics, our objective is to broaden our market coverage, ensuring that we've got the right price pack architecture at different price levels, and across different channels. An example would be our launch of Duo Pack in Sensodyne in the U.K., which is now a top five selling SKU, would be an example of broadening that coverage. We've also looked at our promo strategy in terms of the effectiveness of multi-buys versus high-low and being really laser-targeted for specific brands in specific markets. As Brian said, leveraging AI, that we've embedded in the U.S. and rolling that out globally to our top 20 markets should enable us to get even more effective at driving full market coverage to unlock growth.
Okay, thanks a lot.
Thank you. The next question comes from Celine Pannuti from JP Morgan. Celine, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you very much. My first question is that I would like to come back to understanding your confidence in the midterm guide, both on top line and on margin progression. You did say that the categories are proving to be a bit more difficult than expected. How do you reconcile with still keeping the 4%-6%? I found it, you are keeping a margin expectation afloat. Is there anything you can do in your business in terms of reinvestment affordability maybe on price point to see a better volume? How do you look at the compromise between returning to better volume growth versus the margin delivery? That's my first question. My second question is Europe. As being weaker, I understand that your fleet isn't that great, but can you talk about what's going on in that region? Thank you.
Thank you, Celine.
All right. Thanks, Celine. Listen, let me take the first question, then I'll pass it to Dawn Allen on Europe. Listen, first of all, I completely understand the question. What I can say is we do not believe we have a pricing issue on the business. I understand the pressure on, well, if volumes are lower, can pricing change? We have pricing elasticities. We understand our price gaps. We don't believe we have a pricing issue. I want to be clear, growth is the priority for us, and that's where we are going to make sure that we're investing right in the business. Listen, we've been fortunate that we've had an incredible opportunity that we outlined a couple of years ago on productivity. Because of the supply chain we inherited and the amount of things we're doing and the investment we're making in supply chain. That's been paying dividends.
It's allowed us to invest in A&P and invest in R&D and make the changes that were happening and lead for this year, deliver that high single-digit growth. I think in the end, though, there's no question that growth is the priority. We don't believe we have a fundamental investment issue or not. From a medium-term perspective, listen, I think these are categories that should grow in that with these categories, we should grow that 4%-6%. We haven't delivered that. I'm aware of that. We need to show that we can do that. I believe next year, again, with all the changes we're making, we're going to see strong progress on the business. At this point, I feel like that is something we should be able to deliver on the business. Maybe I pass over to Dawn for Europe.
Yeah, I'd say in terms of Europe, it's tough at the moment. I said at the beginning, the category is down mid-single digits in units in Q3. As consumers are seeking more value using pantry stocks and leveraging more discretion, particularly in categories like VMS. As I also said, our performance is resilient against that challenging market backdrop. If you think from a channel perspective in terms of performance, pharmacy is a very strong channel in Europe and strong for us. 80% of the E.U. population lives within minutes of a pharmacy. So, we have a very good presence there. We continue to gain share. If I look across the other channels, if I think about e-commerce, e-commerce in Europe has a low penetration at the moment in many markets. It's a bit higher in Germany.
Let me give you an example in terms of what we're doing. If I talk about our launch of Volta Heat, leveraging on the Voltaren brand legacy, that brand is non-medicated. It's in patch, and it's in cream. What that enables us to do is not only sell that in pharmacy but also sell that across mass and e-commerce. So what we're doing in Europe is we're looking to unlock more value, as I talked about in terms of the Sensodyne Duo Pack. The other thing that we're ensuring is that we've got propositions that can be across all channels in Europe in response to what is a very challenging macro environment.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Edward Lewis from Rothschild & Co Redburn. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks very much. Just a couple from me. Just quickly on the Brazil change in the go-to-market, is that something that is just going to be specific to Brazil or other markets where you may have to make such a move? Then Brian, just, I guess, broader commentary on the consumer health category. Just be interested to hear your perspective, because I guess we've had back-to-back years from yourself and I guess a few other players in the category seeing sort of challenges. Is there anything structural that we should think about? Are there opportunities, do you think, where you could look to go inorganic to bolster growth, as we've seen at peers?
Thanks. Listen, I'll take both of those questions. First on Brazil, it is a specific Brazil thing for us. Like I said, I think we have opportunities to accelerate our growth in Brazil and in Latin America broadly. This is something that was in our plan. We are making a choice to do it this year. We want to make sure that we're setting up next year for the right level of growth in Latin America. Again, this gives us confidence in that high single digit, low double digit growth in a sustainable way. It is a big change, but now is the moment to do it, and I think the tax change in Brazil gives us an opportunity to open that conversation and put this behind us as we go into next year.
Listen, on the overall categories, they have been a bit more challenging than expected. Again, seasonality has been quite a driver of that, as we know. Our view is that is not structural. It does have a bit of an overhang on some other categories, like pain and other things. Listen, let's see how it plays out the balance of the year. Obviously, the U.S., we're seeing really healthy cold and flu growth in the past four weeks. Let's see how it plays out. Again, nothing outside the U.S. yet, but there's nothing to believe that it shouldn't come. I still believe these are good categories and the right categories. I think on an inorganic perspective, we said that. We do believe there's always opportunities to strengthen the portfolio. We believe there are some higher growth wellness areas and wellness categories that are quite interesting.
Obviously, you can imagine I'm not going to make any specific comment, but we're very active in the space. We're evaluating. We are in a constant evaluation mode of assets that are out there and the things that would make sense for us, and obviously we'll be very disciplined with our capital and make sure we're buying things that generate the appropriate level of value for the company and for our shareholders.
Thank you. The next question comes from Tom Sykes from Deutsche Bank. Tom, your line's open. Please go ahead.
Yeah, morning. Thank you. Just firstly, following up on your last comments there. Why isn't the M&A accelerated more? It hasn't accelerated for you over the last couple of years. It's obviously very strong as an area for M&A, and yet you're buying back your own shares and you're growing at 2.5%, and you obviously have a growth issue at the moment. Why are you not putting more capital to work buying faster growth businesses? Or do you think that large scale M&A is something that really needs to take place in the sector and that's what you're waiting for? Then just on North America, could you maybe talk about the differences you're seeing across channels there? You said you've rewired the business, but what's happening in the drug channel, other grocery versus faster growth channels like Amazon and Costco?
I guess Costco's been particularly volatile for you, so maybe any views there would be great, please.
Yeah. Listen, let me take North America first, then I'll make a comment on M&A, but pass it to Dawn to give more perspective. I think, listen, in North America, what are we seeing? We're seeing, obviously, the growth of the digital channels, the majority of where the growth is coming from. If we look at our growth in North America, we're growing two times the market growth in those digital channels. So we are seeing very strong growth in the areas that are growing. Look at the other customers. Walmart continues to be a winner, and Costco continues to be a winner, and I think that's probably an outcome of all the. Everyone talks about the K-shaped economy. I think it's a real example where Walmart is much more of an everyday low price retailer, and the Costcos are more about value at a higher price point.
In both those cases, we are doing well, and we have good relationships there. Dollar channel has been a bit mixed. At times, it says spiked up or not. Obviously, that's a much lower price point outlay, but not nearly the same value equation per se, if you think about price per use. The drug channel continues to be a laggard in the U.S. market. The channel shift is really going to Walmart and Costco and digital, as we've always seen. It's not something, by the way, that's happening that's unexpected to us at this point. It's exactly the way we thought it would play out this year. M&A is a priority. Obviously, we did announce a stock buyback today. I'll have Dawn talk. We still have capacity to do M&A and bolt-on M&A. Our focus is bolt-on. It is true that we haven't seen any.
We haven't, let's say, announced that we've done anything yet. It's not that we haven't been active in the market and looking, and we will continue to do that, but maybe I'll pass it to Dawn and talk about cash flow capacity and leverage.
Yeah. So I think, look, to Brian's point, we maintain our disciplined capital allocation policy. We continue to generate strong free cash flow. Working capital has reduced 19 days over the last two years. As a result of that, our leverage is now broadly in line with our target in terms of around 2.5 x. So that obviously gives us more optionality. Our first point of call is to invest in the business, and maintain sufficient headroom for M&A. Actually, when we think about our strong free cash flow, we're comfortable with both of these, and we do have sufficient headroom. Given the strong free cash flow, that's why we are announcing a share buyback, because at this point in time, we feel that that will generate the best return for shareholders.
And to Brian's point, I wouldn't take this as an indication that we're not still heavily focused on M&A, because we are. As I said, we have sufficient headroom to do M&A. But as I said, given the strength of the free cash flow, we believe at this point in time it will generate the best return to shareholders for a share buyback.
Tom, just in case I didn't answer it directly, no, we're not looking to do a transformational deal.
Yes.
The focus is bolt-on and improving the portfolio.
Okay.
I believe we have time for one last question. This will be the last question.
Thank you. The last question comes from Nicolas Ceron from Bank of America. Nicolas, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, Brian. Hi, Dawn. Just a quick one. Am I right to assume that the board only review once a year formally the medium-term guidance, and that this would happen at the time of the full year?
You can assume that we're in constant discussions with the board on anything we would talk to investors about, and that they're fully aligned with the press release and everything we're saying today.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. This now concludes today's Q&A session. I'd now like to hand back to Brian for any closing remarks.
Okay. Thank you, everyone. Our third quarter performance was below expectations. We are clear on what we need to go to improve. Our focus is on scaling capability, applying them more consistently across the business, and returning us to stronger growth. We will have a fuller update on our progress on all that as we report full year results in February. The IR team is available for any follow-ups. Thanks, and have a good day.
Thank you. This now concludes today's call, and I would like to thank everyone for joining. You may now all disconnect your lines.