Good morning, everyone, thank you for joining us for our 2021 interim results. As usual, I am joined by our CFO, Gijsbert de Zoeten, and our Head of Investor Relations, Raghav Gupta. In a moment, there will be a short presentation followed by your questions. Today's presentation will be available on the group website, and a recording of this call will also be uploaded later today. We have set out the agenda on Slide 3. I will begin by running through the first half highlights and headline financials before handing over to Gijsbert, who will cover the financial performance in more detail. I will spend some time updating you on the group's strategic progress and our 2021 outlook. We will open the lines for your questions. On Slide 4, we have summarized the highlights of the first half.
Firstly, on behalf of the entire board, I would like to express my sincere thanks to all our colleagues across the globe for their ongoing dedication and commitment. Our performance would have been impossible without the efforts of everyone across the group. In the first half, we made encouraging progress with our strategic priorities. In particular, we continue to transform our digital footprint with the rollout of our omnichannel platform now live across 10 OEM markets. We established two Digital Delivery Centers in line with our plan, which will be the nucleus of the group's digital and analytical capability. We have also continued to rebalance our portfolio towards the more attractive distribution segment. Since the start of the year, we have secured three new distribution businesses, including two new markets and one new OEM, an addition to our portfolio of brands that we are really excited about.
We have disposed of more non-strategic retail businesses, the most significant of which was our St. Petersburg operations in Russia. The group's overall financial position has strengthened further, supported by the highly cash generative nature of our business model and continued effective cash flow management. We are pleased to announce that we will be launching a GBP 100 million share buyback today, and that will be completed before our 2021 full year results. Slide 5 shows the first half 2021 headline KPIs. As we mentioned in this morning's announcement, the group performance in the first half was strong and exceeded our expectations. During the period, we saw a good top-line performance across the regions, better margins, and the benefit of our cost restructuring program. Revenues for the half were GBP 3.9 billion, which on an organic basis represents an increase of 37% versus the pandemic-impacted first half of 2020.
Our operating margin came in at 4.1%, which is a significant improvement compared to last year's 0.9%. The group's PBT for the period was GBP 143 million. This is a really pleasing result and highlights the sustained top-line recovery and the benefits of our overhead reduction. Our free cash flow generation in the period is GBP 184 million, which represents a conversion of 115%. A combination of this strong cash performance and the disposal proceeds resulted in a closing net cash position of GBP 435 million. The group's EPS was GBP 0.267, and we have today declared an interim dividend of GBP 0.064. I will now hand over to Gijsbert, who will run through the financial performance in more detail.
Thank you, Duncan, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with the headline income statement figures on Slide 7. Duncan has already referenced the figures relating to the first half of this year. The intention of this slide is to highlight the strong business performance compared to both the first half and the second half of last year. Group revenue of GBP 3.9 billion exceeded what we achieved in the second half of 2020, despite a currency headwind and the loss contribution of disposed retail businesses in the U.K. The organic growth rate of 37% largely reflects the significant disruption caused by the pandemic in the prior year.
A combination of the improved top-line performance, higher gross margins, and overhead savings following our cost restructuring program supported a significantly better operating margin of 4.1%, 50 basis points ahead of the second half and higher than the 3.8% margin in the comparative period in 2019. The improvement in our operating profits flowed through to group PBT, which amounted to GBP 143 million. While we are encouraged by the results, we are mindful that the first half of 2021 was to a degree supported by pent-up demand. Remember, since 2019, the group has completed a significant disposal program and faced adverse Forex movements, which you can see on the next slide. Here, we provide a revenue bridge for the first half of this year from 2019. Group revenue in 2019 was GBP 4.7 billion. This included a meaningful contribution from retail businesses that we have since sold.
Partially offsetting the loss of revenues from these businesses is the contribution from a number of new distribution businesses, such that there is a net negative impact of GBP 0.5 billion. In addition, actual exchange rates resulted in a GBP 0.2 billion headwind. The GBP 3.9 billion of revenue generated in the first half is therefore 3% below the underlying level of a comparable 2019. This highlights the continuing recovery that we've seen across the business over the past 12 months. We've provided the details of the impact of net disposals in M&A and Forex on the 2019 full year results on a slide that you can find in the appendix. Moving to slide nine. This slide clearly shows the trend of organic growth improvement for the group and for the distribution and retail businesses by comparing the half yearly revenue trend versus 2019.
The group organic growth rate has now improved for four consecutive quarters compared to 2019. Distribution has seen a gradual improvement in organic revenue growth as the impact of the pandemic has been reduced by operational improvements. Revenue in the half, however, was still 6% below 2019 levels, which is largely a function of the slower recovery in Asia, which we expected. Performance in retail has remained solid since the end of the first half of 2020. Let's now look at the segmental performance in more detail, starting with the distribution revenue trends by region on slide 10. Here we show a map highlighting our global distribution presence. Starting on the right with Asia, all markets delivered positive growth in the half. Despite the year-on-year improvement, the Singapore vehicle license cycle and general softness in Hong Kong weighed on the performance of the region.
Outside of those two markets, the others showed an encouraging trend. In Australasia, the top-line performance was supported by the launch of the new Subaru Outback, helping the brand gain market share. Europe saw an uptick in demand across several markets following the easing of restrictions imposed in Q4 2020. We gained market share in a number of markets supported by some new model launches. We won the distribution business for JLR Poland in the second half of 2020, and the performance to date has been encouraging. The Americas and Africa region saw the strongest year-on-year increase. In Americas, the top-line performance has sequentially improved for four consecutive quarters. The top-line trend in Africa has continued to be robust. On slide 11, we show the revenue and operating profit performance by region from 2019 to 2021.
Distribution segment revenue came in at GBP 2.4 billion, up 33% on an organic basis. Operating profit was GBP 120 million, with margins recovering to 5.1%, up 240 basis points versus the prior year. Taking each region in turn. In Asia, while the margins have recovered strongly, profitability remains low relative to 2019, which we had anticipated given where we are in the volume cycle. We expect profitability will increase more gradually over the next few years. In Australasia, strong top-line growth and overhead savings supported our profitability, although there is room to further improve margins. In Europe, the rebound in profitability is also a function of the strong top line and overhead savings. In Americas and Africa, the operating margin of 6.1% was 100 basis points above the equivalent period in 2019, with a meaningful benefit of our cost restructuring efforts. Moving to retail on slide 12.
Retail revenue amounted to GBP 1.6 billion. This includes some contribution from retail sites that we have now disposed in Russia and in the U.K. The step down in absolute revenue since 2019 reflects significant pruning of our retail exposure. On an underlying basis, the business in the first half of 2021 is above 2019 levels. Revenue rebounded strongly versus the prior year in spite of a prolonged lockdown in the U.K. throughout the first quarter. Our performance was resilient given the solid demand for new and used vehicles and the improvement of our operational capabilities. In terms of profitability, we saw an improved vehicle gross margin helped by the supply-demand imbalance and also the positive impact from our cost restructuring efforts. Note that around GBP 10 million of the half one profits relates to the Russian operations we have now disposed. The operating margin was strong at 2.5%.
Turning to slide 13 with a more detailed review of the income statement. In the half, we generated operating profit of GBP 159 million, a material increase compared to 2020 and only slightly down versus 2019. Let me point out that on a comparable basis, that is adjusting for disposals and acquisitions since 2019 and correcting for currency, the group is already back to 2019 levels of profitability. Our net interest expense fell to GBP 16 million in the half as we carried less inventory, and we benefited from lower interest rates. Exceptional items amounted to a charge of GBP 82 million, the majority of which relates to a GBP 72 million loss on the disposal of our retail operations in Russia, where we realized GBP 110 million of accumulated foreign exchange losses upon disposal. We also booked GBP 13 million of restructuring costs as we concluded our COVID-19 restructuring program.
We have successfully delivered on the savings plan and only incurred GBP 53 million of charges compared to the anticipated GBP 70 million. The underlying tax rate for the year was 24.5%, broadly in line with the underlying tax rate we expect in the medium term. Our EPS on a pre-exceptional basis was GBP 0.267. Moving on to slide 14 and cash. Cash generation was strong once again, reflective of the highly cash generative nature of our business model and a continuing focus on cash flow management. As per the previous slide, the group generated operating profit of GBP 159 million in the half, which was somewhat offset by the outflow related to interest and tax. We saw net working capital inflow of GBP 72 million, arising primarily as a result of lower inventory levels, which supports the key free cash flow generation.
Net CapEx in the period was somewhat lower than expected, in part due to some asset sales. We expect the net CapEx for 2021 will be less than the initially guided GBP 70 million. Free cash flow in the half amounted to GBP 184 million, representing a cash conversion of 115%. While the supply situation remains uncertain, we think it's unlikely that the inventory situation will unwind in the second half. Therefore we expect our free cash flow full year will be above the top end of our more regular 60%-70% range. We would, however, expect the inventory situation to normalize in time. The disposal of part of our retail businesses in Russia generated GBP 70 million of cash, with some smaller disposals elsewhere, largely offset by the acquisitions in the Americas. The payment in relation to our 2020 dividend amounted to GBP 27 million.
Excluding leases, we ended the period with net cash of GBP 435 million compared to GBP 266 million net cash at the end of 2020. This brings me to capital allocation on slide 15. Inchcape is a very cash generative business and has a track record of disciplined capital allocations over many years. You can expect the same level of rigor and prudence to continue. Our first priority is to invest in the business given our relatively asset light model focused on the higher growth distribution segment and increasing focus on digital, this tends not to be a large call on capital. The second priority is dividends. Our interim dividend of GBP 0.064 represents one third of our anticipated full year dividend, which is based on our policy of a 40% payout ratio and reflects confidence in our profit outlook for the year.
The third pillar is value accretive M&A, which remains a key feature of our policy. Duncan will talk more about this shortly. Finally, after each of the previous three priorities have been considered, we review the appropriateness of share buybacks. In light of our strengthened financial position, we are pleased to be launching GBP 100 million share buyback, which we expect to be completed before our full year results in February. Underpinning all of this is our view that the maximum leverage ratio that we would consider appropriate for the group is 1x EBITDA on the pre IFRS 16 basis. To sum up, our top line continued to recover well with a broad-based improvement across the regions, reflecting some pent up demand. Gross margins were higher, supported to an extent by the supply demand imbalance. Our results clearly benefited from the significant cost restructuring efforts.
Cash management was once again very good, driving an excellent free cash flow. Looking beyond the near term, we are confident that our geographical exposure offers a long runway of growth in the mid and longer term. With that, let me hand back to Duncan.
Thank you, Gijsbert. Let's now move on to an update on our strategic progress. I'm on slide 17. In February, we shared our strategic framework, which we show on this slide following a thorough review of our business and the available opportunities. All of us at Inchcape are excited by the distribution focused growth strategy and the greater emphasis on capturing more of the lifetime value of both customers and vehicles. We are firmly of the view that with smarter use of technology, we can improve our business for the benefit of our consumers, our network of retail partners, our OEMs, and our people. Since the launch of the strategy, we have made encouraging progress on a number of initiatives, which I will run through on the following slides. On slide 18, we start with our core, distribution excellence. This is the key focus of what we do today.
Going forward, we are determined to accelerate our transformation so OEMs find it even more compelling to work with us, making us the undisputed number one choice for OEMs. I'll come back to omnichannel and digitalization on the following slides, but let me first give you an update on where we are with the globalization of our core processes. We are targeting for this to be completed in 3 phases. In phase 1, we have prioritized product planning or S&OP and customer lifecycle management, and the results to date have been encouraging. Phases 2 and 3 will cover product lifecycle management, channel management, logistics, and stakeholder relationships. This is a multi-year project. We are prioritizing those with the most significant opportunity. Let's move to slide 19 and omnichannel.
Having started 2020 with the omnichannel platform live with Subaru in one market, Australia, we accelerated the rollout in the second half of last year, finishing the year with it live in all five Subaru markets. In the second half of this year, we have rolled it out to two new markets, Singapore and Hong Kong, and added three further OEMs in Toyota, Lexus, and Suzuki. The platform is now live across 10 OEM markets. As a reminder, the omnichannel platform enables a seamless, all-in-one digital buying experience from trade-in to financing quotes through to vehicle purchase. This is a key component of our customer lifecycle management. We have seen tangible benefits from our platform with higher in-market leads and better sales conversion rates. This superior consumer engagement and data collection is relevant for both a vehicle purchase and after-sales.
Our capability here will enable us to serve consumers throughout their lifetime. We will continue to roll out the omnichannel platform into new markets and with more OEM partners. Onto slide 20 and the launch of our Digital Delivery Centers. As part of our transformation to becoming a more digital and data-focused business, we've set up two Digital Delivery Centers, or DDCs, in the first half. The DDCs already contain over 250 new Inchcapers, with more than 70 dedicated to our omnichannel platform and more than 80 working on analytics. We have set one up in Manila in the Philippines and another in Bogotá, Colombia, which provides the group with solutions and services around the clock. These centers are all about increasing the speed at which we deliver functionality into the markets twice as fast.
We fundamentally believe that with effective and smart use of data, we will become more informed and targeted in our customer interactions and will be able to provide our dealer networks and OEMs with insightful information. This will drive the right behaviors and get us moving forward fast. It's becoming clear that this will be a key enabler for us to achieve our ambition of becoming the number one choice for OEMs, enabling us to grow not only within our existing footprint, but also to drive expansion in new markets with existing OEMs and new OEM partners. On slide 21, we show how fragmented the automotive distribution market is, highlighting the huge opportunity for growth. As a reminder, the global new vehicle market totals some 90 million vehicles per annum.
On an annual basis, around 17 million vehicles are sold in distribution markets, which we define as those with less than one million vehicles per year. This compares to more than 70 million in retail markets where OEMs typically in-source. Typical distribution markets tend to be smaller and often offer greater growth prospects as motorization levels are low, making them very attractive for us. The markets in which we operate account for 30%, which signifies the opportunity for us to expand our footprint into new territories. In addition, while we are the largest independent global automotive distributor, we distribute just over 200,000 new vehicles per annum, or put it another way, a little over 1% of the addressable market, which in itself highlights the size of the opportunity to grow within our existing footprint, potentially with new OEMs and into new markets. Moving to slide 22.
M&A is a key pillar of our growth story. We have a healthy pipeline for both larger and small-scale consolidation opportunities. During the first half, we won three new exciting distribution contracts. We secured contracts in two new markets, Indonesia with JLR and in Guatemala with Daimler. We're also excited to announce a global strategic partnership with Geely, which will move forward on a country-by-country basis and is being launched with a distribution agreement for Chile. This broadens our brand exposure in a very attractive market and one where we have significant experience. Geely is a fast-growing Chinese brand. I'd highlight a few key data points. It is a leading brand in China. The Geely brand, which we'll begin distributing in Chile, sold more than 1.3 million vehicles in 2020. The parent company owns Volvo Cars, Lotus, and London Electric Vehicle Company, among a number of other brands.
We're excited about all three contract wins. We are continuing to review other opportunities. It is fair to say that the M&A landscape has improved compared to what we were seeing just six months ago. Turning now to slide 23 and our second growth pillar, Vehicle Lifecycle Services. As we outlined in February, we are focused on building out a segment that is underserved by Inchcape today and one where we see significant room for growth. Here, the emphasis is on capturing more share from the second and subsequent phases of a vehicle's life. Our focus is on two areas, parts and used vehicles. We will leverage our local market knowledge and access to digital capability to grow these new businesses.
It is still early days. Let me say that we are excited about the opportunities identified and look forward to updating you about our strategy and midterm prospects at our Capital Markets Day on 17th November. On slide 24, we size the opportunity through the lens of the revenue and profit pool over the first 12 years of a vehicle's life. Inchcape has historically been predominantly focused on the initial user phase of a vehicle's life. The subsequent phases are currently underserved by us, and one where there's much value in the vehicle's life cycle when it was used as when it was brand new, and this is something that our OEM partners are pushing us to go after. We believe we have the right to play in both the initial and subsequent use phases of a vehicle's life.
In doing so beyond what we do today, our business performance will improve significantly. To sum up, distribution remains at the core of the business. We see an opportunity to make this growth pillar bigger and better with effective use of technology. In Vehicle Lifecycle Services, we believe there is significant unrealized potential for us to go after. In short, we are setting out to capture more of the lifetime value of both customers and vehicles. This business has a really exciting future ahead. We look forward to sharing more at our Capital Markets Day. Let's move on to the outlook on slide 26. The strength of our business model and financial position means the group is well-placed to continue to grow profits and generate cash.
Looking ahead, while there continues to be a high level of uncertainty, both in terms of the pandemic and widely reported issues relating to supply, we expect that the strong first half performance, which in part reflected pent-up demand, will underpin our full year results and expect to deliver FY 2021 profit before tax of at least GBP 260 million. Beyond the short term, our ambition is to both strengthen and further broaden our OEM relationships and to continue to expand our geographic reach, enabling us to bring mobility to the world's communities. One final slide before we open for questions. On slide 27, we outline the investment proposition. With distribution at the heart of what we do, we continue to be focused on growth and cash returns. Given our geographic footprint with exposure to high growth markets and our diversified revenue streams, the group should deliver GDP plus organic growth.
The highly fragmented nature of distribution means there is significant scope for expansion opportunities. As the largest independent automotive distributor, we have a unique opportunity to leverage our scale and efficiencies. This is something we are doing today with our digital developments. From a financial perspective, aside from the attractive top-line growth prospects, this business is capital light, with a strong history of delivering a healthy free cash flow conversion in the range of 60%-70%. Solid cash generation and disciplined approach to capital allocation should enable the group to maintain its long track record of delivering attractive shareholder value. Thank you very much for your attention. Gijsbert and I will now happily take your questions.
Duncan, Gijsbert, thank you very much indeed. We do now turn to the Q&A part of today's presentation. If you'd like to ask a question, then please click the raise hand icon on Zoom and we will come to each of you in turn. The first question comes from Andrew Nussey. Andrew, if you'd like to unmute your microphone and please go ahead.
Yep. Good morning. A couple of questions from me, please. First of all, in terms of the new Geely relationship, is there anticipated roadmap of rollout to new territories if the Chile distribution arrangement works out as planned? Secondly, in terms of the M&A landscape, which you said Duncan had improved over the last six months, could you expand? Is that the sort of the scale of opportunity, the number of opportunities or sort of around pricing expectations, which I know have been volatile? Last question, probably for Gijsbert, in terms of the GBP 90 million of cost savings, which were established at the beginning or put in at the beginning of the year, now that we've got volumes nearing back to the FY 2019 levels, is there a chance that more of the savings will be held onto, i.e. greater than 50%? Please.
Very good morning, Andrew. Thank you very much for the question. As you guided us, I'll take the first two and then Gijsbert can come back on cost savings. How do I think about Geely? I think of Geely being a winning OEM. They have a wonderful track record in China. They're making all the right investments. We'll take them into Chile initially, and then frankly, we have to perform as two companies in Chile together. You should think of us delivering in the low few thousands when our business gets up and running in terms of volumes of cars per annum. We have an agreement that we'll look at other countries together. We're excited about it. We should also say that the reason Geely chose us was, of course, because we have great automotive distribution knowledge.
We really understand the Chilean marketplace and how we can make them successful. We've also noted the fact that our digital capabilities and our omnichannel that we deployed in Chile was another reason why Geely wanted to work with us. Let's see how Chile goes, being the only independent global automotive distribution company there is in the world, we'll then look at other continents to take Geely in, including Asia, Africa and the Americas. In terms of your comments around, or the question around M&A. Yeah, I would say the things have improved significantly over the last 6 months. We are seeing a healthier pipeline of opportunities. I think valuations are getting more realistic. I would remind everyone on the call that both Gijsbert and I are very disciplined in the way we think about M&A.
I would say OEMs are also seeing that our investments in data and digital are paying off and giving them an edge in some of our markets. Some of the independents that I talk to, if I think about one just a few weeks ago that I was talking to, recognize that to be successful as a distribution company over the next coming years, you need to be excellent at cyber, at digital, at data, and you need to be able to do it at scale. Frankly, they're going to struggle to keep up. We think it's pretty buoyant for us, and we are seeing opportunities across the spectrum in terms of size. We're very disciplined. We want to make sure we can do the right levels of due diligence.
Not ready to announce anything yet, the M&A pipeline is much healthier than it was 6 months ago, when, as you know, we were doing single market, single OEM deals because that reduced our risk profile, they worked out quite nicely for us. I'll hand over to Gijsbert for question three.
Yeah. Thank you, Andrew. It was only a year ago that we announced the COVID restructuring, in response to the situation, and set ourselves a target of delivering GBP 90 million of savings, which is a very significant number. Firstly, I'm very, very pleased to say that the savings are coming in, clearly, and coming in everywhere. You've seen from the margin improved across all the regions, that all regions have benefited from the COVID restructuring that we've undertaken. As you say, we're almost back to the 2019 levels, and we've always said, "Okay, we'll hold on to 50% of the savings of the GBP 90 million," i.e. GBP 45 million. We can confirm that GBP 45 million, where we are, it's broad based. We are very focused on that it sticks, and that it doesn't creep up back again. I think excellent progress.
We confirm the 45, that's the level you should think of.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Andrew.
Okay. Bye, Andrew.
The next question comes from Georgios Pilakoutas. Georgios, if you'd like to unmute your microphone, please go ahead.
Thanks. Morning, team. First one, organic revenue is down 3% versus 2019 in the first half. Do you have a sense what the kind of TIV is relative to 2019? I guess what I'm leading to is it feels like you've outperformed the market a decent amount, if I was to have my own stab at what the market has done. I'm interested in you discussing a bit more what you think has driven that market share outperformance. You mentioned some car launches, if you think it's the brand mix that you have, also interested in how omnichannel has played a role in that. In the 10 markets where you've gone live with the omnichannel capabilities, do you see a noticeable uplift in market share that you can then go back to your OEM partners to build a story there?
You mentioned that profitability is back to 2019 levels, kind of adjusted for currency and M&A. I guess that's impressive given that market volumes are potentially still down mid to high single-digit. Where do you think steady-state operating margins will get to? Final one, on M&A, really just I think you touched on the final point most previously, it's been more of a steady stream of deals, kind of single OEM, single market. Do you think there are bigger deals out there, or do you think kind of the small-to-medium-sized deals is still kind of where the greatest opportunities sit?
Okay, very good. Thank you, Georgios. If I take one and three, Gijsbert if you could do two. In terms of TIV, I think you're right. We have outperformed the market, and we can see that in many of our markets, save for supply in some. We think TIV is probably down 14% or so versus 2019 in the first half. That's the number that comes to mind for me. Why do I think we performed better? I think we're in the right market. Let's not forget, we are in markets which are structurally designed to grow for us because of this low motorization rate we have. The economies in those countries have also bounced back pretty quickly. The investments we've made, not just in digital, but also to support our people, means that we have actually been able to trade.
I personally have had feedback from some of our major OEMs that Inchcape concentrated on trading during these difficult times and were able to serve their customers better than some of our competition. That came out of a few of our OEMs. We are pleased at how we've been able to trade. Yes, we have had some new model launches, like the Outback in Australasia, which a great set of digital marketing assets and launches that we did to make sure that was successful. Then you mentioned in omni, yes. We're now in 10 OEM markets, where I'm really pleased with how that's going. Our pace will only build in that regard, Georgios, we wanna deploy even more markets in the second half. What are we seeing?
I think it's too early to say yet that we can definitely draw a straight line between omnichannel and market share, because I think there are many things that affect that. What we can say is we are getting way more digital leads. The cost to generate those leads is obviously way lower than through traditional channels. Our conversion rate of those leads into closed deals, where someone buys a vehicle from us, is also improving. I think it is very promising about how that omnichannel is working for us. In terms of how the OEMs are feeling about our omnichannel investments, there's been several of our OEMs that we have shown our omnichannel roadmap to and the capability of it. In our markets, we're pretty confident that they'll use our technology. Pleased with how it's going, frankly.
I'll answer question three and then hand over to Gijsbert. Are there bigger deals and are we interested in them? A little bit like I said to Andrew, I think it's a healthier environment. We have a more vibrant pipeline, and there are frankly deals in there which are smaller, mid-size and some larger ones. We're only going to do these if we can see how they're accretive to the group, and we're not going to overpay for them. The environment is changing quite positively, and I would say we are seeing more realistic valuations as people have come through COVID-19. Gijs, I'll hand over to you for question two, please.
In terms of operating margin, I mean, firstly, just acknowledging again the encouraging trend and the quick bounce back on the back of both resilient gross margins and clearly the impact of the cost restructuring we spoke about. The 4.1%, what do I think about it? If you segment our business, I would say that the margins in distribution are actually sustainable. If anything, at the moment, we are held back by the fact that our Asian business is still significantly below 2019, and that part of the distribution business, as you know, has high margins. Also, I would say in terms of regional, there is upside still in our Australian business. When it comes to our retail business, an operating margin of 2.5% is historically very high and has been really helped by the imbalance between supply and demand.
I wouldn't think that that is a margin that is sustainable over time. You should perhaps think about a margin more in the region of 1.5%, which by the way, is ahead of what we've historically done, recently at least. I think those are sort of the underlying trends. Distribution's sustainable, perhaps some tailwinds coming and retail margins not sustainable at the current level, but still expected to converge to up to a higher level than in the past.
Okay, that's very clear. Just one follow-up. You mentioned the Australian margin recovery. Do you have any numbers that you can provide in terms of transactional tailwind going into the second half and next year?
Look, you know that we like to talk about the Australian business in a holistic way, right? I'll have to do the bigger picture here. We've got a great product mix now with the Outback, and if we had more of those available, we would have sold more. We've got a new management team in place. We've done restructuring in the business. Yes, there is also the Aussie dollar, right? I don't deny that. I think margins in the second half on that basis will be helped by where the Aussie dollar is in comparison to 2019.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question comes from James Zaremba. James, if you would like to unmute your microphone and please go ahead.
Good morning. Yes, three questions for me, please. One, just on the gross profit mix. I guess if I look at the after sales contribution, it seems to recover a little bit less than vehicles. I was wondering, is this kind of a temporary lag due to lockdown, or are there some more medium-term factors such as the lag impact of having lower FY 2020 sales and therefore your fleet being slightly smaller than it might have been? The second one, just on the cost savings for Gijsbert. On my numbers it looks like you're tracking closer to the 90 than the 45 despite volumes, I suppose, being close to 2019 levels. I just wonder if you could help us with what that pro forma cost base you're looking at. I think you said GBP 855 recently, but I guess you've had the Russian disposal as well, and Mantum acquisitions.
Lastly, just on the working capital inventory move, is the kind of relationship between payables and inventory kind of similar in terms of the financing? Because I would have thought you might have slightly more of an outflow that was quite strong. Thanks.
Very good. Thanks very much, James. I'll do one. Gijs will probably have some clarification questions to one, then Gijsbert, you can do two and three, that would be wonderful. Just on gross margin mix in terms of after sales versus new, yes, clearly we've seen strong margins in new, largely because demand is a little bit ahead of supply in almost every market we operate in. The way you should think about our after sales business is, there's frankly just been lower levels of mobility or people traveling around, fewer miles driven in pretty much every market we have. You see lower after sales volumes a little bit because in some places people can't get into our dealerships, and in other cases, frankly, because they're driving fewer miles. What do we think will happen with after sales over time?
We think it'll come back, and we're beginning to see signs that it is, as people have higher levels of mobility. Gijsbert, over to you.
James, on the cost-savings basis, you're right. We said GBP 90 million versus a pro forma 2019 number, and this is GBP 855. I think in broad terms, if you take out the net disposals and some Forex, the number is a little north of GBP 800 rather than GBP 855, is the way to think about it. If you then look at the half 1 run rate, that is how we come to a number which is a little north of GBP 45. I think that would clarify it. If it's further detail, Raghav can give. Broadly speaking, the GBP 855 is updated as GBP 800 on that basis of the portfolio changes and some Forex. In terms of working capital, yes, I'm aware you can't really see in the receivables, if you like, the element that relates to inventory financing.
Fundamentally, the way to think about a working capital is net inventory was lower. That has driven the improvement versus the end of 2020. Right. Of the GBP 70 million inflow, the vast majority is related to lower net inventory financing. The other debtors and creditor balances, frankly, are having some movements, but that's not the story. On a go-forward basis, expect some of that to unwind. Given the fact that we expect the supply situation to continue also into 2021, we don't expect a full rewind in the remainder of 2021.
Thank you.
Thanks very much, James.
Just a quick reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please click the raise hand icon on Zoom and we will come to each of you in turn. The next question comes from Sam Bland. Sam, if you would like to unmute and please go ahead.
Hi, morning. Thanks for taking the question. I have two, please. The first one is on supply visibility into the second half. Could you talk about, I guess, how much of it you have, both in Q3 and Q4? To the extent that there is some uncertainty there, how you reflect that in the updated full year guidance. The second question is on, there is a slide 30 in the appendix, shows pro forma 2019 operating profit of GBP 336. If we are thinking about a time when revenue gets back to that level, should we take that GBP 336 and roughly add on GBP 45 for structural cost savings to get an operating profit? Or are there other nuances and things to be aware of there? Thank you.
Morning, Sam. Thanks for the two questions. I will take one. Gijsbert might want to add some clarification to it, and clearly Gijsbert will be doing number two. On the topic of supply, let's be clear, we have seen some supply issues in the first half. In general, my comments before, demand in general has been higher than supply. That's a global comment across our markets, and therefore that's been pretty good for us in terms of margin. In the second half, you will have seen a lot of commentary from the OEMs that they were seeing factory closures during late Q2, and they expect them during Q3. That clearly will impact supply. As you know, we have this excellent sales and operations planning process, which is digitally enabled, which enables us to understand what do each of the markets need.
I think our OEMs are relying increasingly upon us being incredibly accurate about how demand is in a particular market. Our S&OP process runs every month. We have reasonably good visibility for Q3, and we think Q3 will have a genuine number of supply issues across our markets. Q3, we already know that. The indications from the OEMs is that we'll see a better level of supply in Q4. That is not yet locked in. It means about them getting availability to not just semiconductors, but it's right across the board. It's metal, it's plastics, it's leather, it's everything you go towards manufacturing a vehicle is in somewhat short supply. Good visibility of Q3. We know there are issues in Q3. Q4, the OEMs are hopeful. We're using our S&OP process to manage that.
Frankly, I don't think in the way we're planning for 2022 that supply will magically be fixed on the 1st of January 2022. I think this will run for some time, and OEMs are giving us different views as to when they think supply will come back to more normal levels as to whether that's the end of the year Q1, some people saying Q2, and I'm conscious the semiconductor market is actually saying 2022 because we have structural supply issues of semiconductors. Sam, I hope that answers the questions in terms of the way we're thinking about supply.
Right.
Yeah, that's great. Thank you.
All I would add is that if Q4 is not seeing those disruptions, if that was the case, and I think the uncertainty has been clearly flagged up, that would provide an upside to the GBP 260 number that we have.
Without today, basically. Without getting carried away, guys, please. In terms of your other question, basically, when are you back to 2019? If I rephrase it, if you take the GBP 336 million operating profit we provided in the appendix, give or take, GBP 35 million-GBP 40 million interest out of that, talking about a PBT number of just shy of GBP 300 million, just to get everyone in the room on that page. Your question was, can we simply add the GBP 45 million of cost savings to that, as an expectation. I think there's always more factors, Sam, right? Let's recognize that. I think perhaps the main thing I would highlight is the Asia recovery. When you look at where we are at the half, also as we look at the full year, we expect most regions to be back to 2019 levels or indeed, a little beyond.
Asia is still significantly below. We guided already last year, let's say, that the Asia markets in Singapore will be 25% down on the back of the currency cycle. Sorry, the currency cycle, the vehicle certificate cycle. That was a huge drop that did happen, was aggravated by COVID-19. We're now on the way back up, but we are on the way back up in a mid-single-digit pace. In terms of margin from that perspective, the overall group margin is really weighed down by the Asia recovery. It depends on the pace of that recovery, I would say. There is some of that in Hong Kong as well, where we're still waiting for the border to reopen. As you know, we sell a lot of vehicles that help entrepreneurs traveling in and out of China. Unfortunately, that has not happened yet.
That would clearly be another upside for the future, but we don't know when that's going to happen. I would, in simple terms, say it's really the Asia recovery, pace of recovery, which we expect to be gradual, right? It will provide a headwind, but that is a main thing in this whole equation when you get back to the 2019 number.
Yeah, that's all very clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Sam.
The next question comes from Paul Rossington. Paul, if you would like to unmute your microphone and please go ahead with your question.
Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me? Brilliant.
Got you, Paul.
Two questions, not so much on today's numbers. Can you remind us where you are with the Toyota secondhand kind of online experiment in Greece? I think you were launching a pulse there. Also, can you remind us on Singapore, where you are with the service agreement I think you had in place with one of the local ride-hailing businesses there. Those areas of investment that I can't quite remember if we've spoken about those recently, that would be great. Thank you.
Sure. Thanks so much, Paul. First on Toyota Greece. As you know, we said when we announced our strategy in February, we were looking at two very significant growth opportunities in front of us. One was that we just have 1% market share or so of the distribution business in the markets we face into. A big opportunity for growth. As you're taking me here down to the Toyota example, we believe that in vehicle lifecycle services, the profit pools in the second and third phases of a vehicle's life are approximately equal to the profit pool in phase one. A big opportunity for the group. We are running a number of, let's call them tests, about our used proposition.
One of them, which we are running with Toyota in Greece, is the one I mentioned when we spoke in February at our full year results. It launched on time. We are getting good feedback from our independent dealers. We're getting good feedback from Toyota, I'm pretty pleased with how it's going on. What we're now looking at is other markets that we could take that into. At the same time, we have some other tests that we're running, I'd like to tell you more about those at the Capital Markets Day. Let me leave you with the view that I'm really excited about what we're doing in VLS. I think our tests are going well.
I'm pleased with progress in Greece at the Capital Markets on the 17th of November, we'll tell you a little bit more about our ambition in that part of our business. In terms of in Singapore with Grab. Singapore is a really innovative place. We have a really good relationship with Grab. Again, good collaboration with our OEM and Toyota about how between us and Toyota, how we were able to optimize servicing for that fleet. We've really got our eyes on the far future of automotive or mobility when vehicles are running pretty much 24 hours a day, our job is to supply those vehicles and keep them operational, therefore for servicing time to be the absolute minimum. We've applied data, digital, robotics, process improvement to enable us to do that.
We might see a little bit more of that going on in some other markets, but for the moment, we're pleased with the way the Grab business has gone in Singapore and my view is so is Toyota.
Thank you, James.
Paul, did those answer your questions?
Yes, they did. Thank you.
Thanks very much. Thank you, Paul.
The next question is a follow-up question, I believe, from James Zaremba. James, if you would like to unmute and go ahead.
Hi. Yes, thanks. I just had a follow-up, really, about the Geely agreement, and obviously that's a new one. If you could just talk a little bit more about more broadly with new OEMs, I guess, how the relationship started, I guess in terms of the pitch, what kind of data points or demonstrations you're able to give to them about your performance versus maybe their existing suppliers in the market. That'd be really helpful. Thank you.
Sure. Okay. Thanks, James. We have some wonderful OEMs in our portfolio. Let's all acknowledge that. I think we have some absolute winners, and that's been proven in the marketplace. We have a great portfolio of OEMs, but clearly we want to bite even further into those 17 million vehicles that go into the markets that are best suited to Inchcape every year, and which we have, as you know, just 200,000 a year that we distribute today, even though we're the largest and most capable. We want to add more OEMs, winning OEMs into that portfolio. We're taking a broad view to try and pick the winners, use external data sources about which OEMs we think are going to win over the medium and longer term. Then you have to build a relationship with them.
This isn't just about the science of it. We have to build relationships with those companies, which then gives us the right to put the Inchcape value proposition to them about our global reach, great distribution knowledge and know-how in this company, our investments in data and digital, and some of the stats I gave you before, that we are seeing way more leads generated digitally. The cost of generating those leads is way lower, and we're seeing higher conversion rates. Our pitch to the OEMs is a lot around our investments in data and digital, also in our analytics. If we think about the analytics use cases we're putting in place in our markets around lead scoring, after-sales revenue growth, demand forecasting, we're using machine learning and AI to accelerate our insight, and the OEMs are pretty excited about that, frankly.
Our existing OEMs, as you're seeing from our relationship with Daimler going into new markets, with JLR going into new markets, and being able to attract companies like Geely, who is a genuine winner. They're making all the right investments, both in the SUVs, small and medium SUVs that we're taking into Chile and a sedan, but also in their EV models and in their smart EV businesses. We think we're the right company to take them into a number of markets, and of course, they can have one relationship with an Inchcape. We can take them into Latin America, we can take them into Africa, we can take them into Asia, we can take them into Eastern and Southern Europe. I think they see with us an opportunity to be able to have a relationship with a big British company who can take them into many markets.
James, we'll be looking for more OEMs to bring on board into the Inchcape portfolio and family, and we'll give you an update on subsequent calls.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
James, thank you very much. That was in fact the final question. Duncan, with that, perhaps I could hand back to you.
Very good. Listen, thank you very much for being on the call with us. Thank you for the questions. Thank you for the engagement. Look forward to speaking to you in the coming months. Don't forget our Capital Markets Day on the 17th of November. We would love to meet you face-to-face. Fingers crossed for that. As always, if you have any further questions, please grab Raghav. Thanks.