Ithaca Energy plc (LON:ITH)
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Apr 30, 2026, 4:35 PM GMT
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 30, 2022

Alan Bruce
CEO, Ithaca Energy

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining the call. With me today, I've got Iain Lewis, our chief financial officer. You will have seen from our results that the third quarter has been another strong quarter for Ithaca as we continue to deliver on our operational, financial, and strategic priorities. The plan for today is that we're gonna provide a quick summary of our third quarter results, including a brief business update. We are still in the 40-day restricted period after listing, so we're somewhat constrained on what we can share. As we move beyond that, of course, we intend to hold a more complete call for investors, bondholders, and analysts in the new year, which will be part of our full-year reporting cycle.

If I can move forward to page two and three is our cautionary statement. Of course, results may differ materially from any forward-looking projections shared today, for the reasons outlined on these two pages. Moving on to page four, agenda, we'll just touch briefly on the IPO of the company. I'll talk through some highlights. I'll hand over to Iain to cover the financials. Then we'll just close with a summary on our strategy around emissions reduction. Moving on to page six then.

I'm sure most of you on the call will be aware that we achieved a significant milestone on November 14th, listing the company on the London Stock Exchange, the largest IPO in London this year, and in fact, a significant milestone for the energy industry, given the absence of public offerings over the past several years. We're really pleased to have had great engagement with a wide range of investors during the process, and have been able to secure a high-quality shareholder base, who we're looking forward to continuing to engage with in the fullness of time. Moving on to page seven. One of the benefits and backdrop, of course, with the IPO, is the fact that we've been able to recruit a very strong board.

We've added five independent non-executive directors to the board. As you can see from the slide, wide range of background, but lots of industry experience. The executive directors have already enjoyed the engagement with the board and look forward very much to continuing to work with them as we move to grow the company. Moving on to the next page. Page 9 is just a quick summary of the third quarter results. As I mentioned, Iain will cover the financials in a bit more detail. High level, we generated $1.4 billion in EBITDA year-to-date through the third quarter. Obviously, we've been continuing to reduce leverage, and we're in a very strong financial position as a result.

We've continued to grow production with year-to-date volumes of 68,000 barrels of oil equivalent, and our third quarter production was 71,000 barrels of oil a day equivalent. That's over 20% higher than the equivalent period from last year. Our strong production has been supported by operational development activity, which I will cover in the forthcoming slides. We're making great progress with the enhanced oil recovery project at Captain. We've recently brought some new wells online, both Captain and Abigail. Of course, the significant reinvestment programs that we have do provide an opportunity to offset the recently announced changes to the Energy Profits Levy through the investment allowance.

Of course, it's relatively early days in terms of the increase in extension of the Energy Profits Levy and full details of the legislation still haven't been published. As a company, we're working through understanding the full implications of those, and at this stage, we're not planning to make any further comment on those implications. On to page 10. Really just diving into a bit more detail on the operational side of things. Of course, particularly in this industry, it's important that we focus on safety and environmental responsibility, which is absolutely our first priority in everything we do as it pertains to managing the company. The key metrics that we consider are around serious incident frequency and our Tier 1 and 2 process safety event, and of course, greenhouse gas emissions.

Our serious incident frequency continues to be zero, and we've had no Tier 1 process safety events. There's been 1 Tier 2 process safety event so far this year. Our focus continues to be on the implementation of the IOGP Life-Saving Rules and the Process Safety Fundamentals. In terms of emissions, we're really working hard to continue to drive down our Scope 1 and Scope 2 gross operated emissions. We're forecasting that for full- year 2022, it will be around 492,000 tons of CO₂ equivalent, which is around a 14% reduction versus our 2019 baseline. On a gross emissions intensity basis, that's around 20, just less than 20 kilograms per BOE.

Just finishing that slide, we've had several projects to continue to progress emission reduction, and in particular, the project to reduce hydrocarbon purging on the FPF- 1 asset is progressing to plan. It will be completed by the end of the year and will reduce around 10,000 tons of CO₂ equivalent on an annual basis. Beyond that, we're starting to move into some larger projects which are in the engineering stage. We've kicked that off for the flare gas recovery projects on Alba and Captain with a view to implementing those in 2024 and beyond. Moving to page 11, which provides the highlights of our key operational and financial results through the year to date. I'll just draw out a couple of key points on this, and we'll double-click on some of these in the next two slides.

In particular, we draw attention to our 2P resource base of 244 million barrels, and of course, the 2C resource base of over 300 million barrels, which was as a result of the acquisitions that we've done this year. I'll give a bit more color on progressing those resources to reserves in the next couple of slides. In terms of financials, we're in a strong liquidity position with around $400 million of available liquidity and a net debt to EBITDA target of 0.6, which is significantly below our target of 1.5. Moving to page 12. This slide's a summary of progress on the Captain asset. We're investing heavily in Captain, which is a legacy asset with around 1 billion barrels of oil initially in place.

We're continuing to push the boundaries of the polymer flood technology in order to maximize recovery from the field. The first phase of polymer floods now produced over 10 million barrels, and we continue to optimize and drive up the recovery efficiency. You know that we sanctioned the second phase of the project late last year, and building on the success of the first phase, we're making significant progress with moving the polymer flood to the subsea area of the field. If you look at the pictures on this page, you can get a sense of the scale of the activity that we've got ongoing. The bottom picture, and the one on the top right here are showing the new riser caisson that we've talked about, of which is fabricated recently, and this was it being laid on the seabed ready for installation.

This has happened in the last month or so. The picture on the top right is a clamp, which is installed on the leg of the jacket, and that clamp holds the riser caisson in place. Of course, the riser caisson is used to contain the flow lines, which will support production and injection out to the subsea area of the field. Just this week, we've achieved a huge milestone where this riser caisson has actually been lifted into place, and is now secured against the clamps on the jacket legs. It was a big milestone for us. A large piece of work all completed safely, and with no environmental issues. The project remains on schedule and on budget, of course, it's really gonna support growing our Captain production through the middle of the decade.

In addition to the EOR-2 project, we've also been busy drilling wells from the platform. We recently brought online the C-71 well, we're in the process of completing the C-72 well, which is anticipated to come online before the end of the year. Moving to page 13, this is just a quick summary of some of the other development assets. On the top half of the slide, in terms of operated assets, starting with Abigail, it's a single well tieback to the FPF-1 facility. Really pleased to announce that we achieved first production on the 20th of October, that came less than 10 months from us achieving development consent.

Alba, another one of our operated assets, we're gearing up to commence a platform drilling campaign there in 2023, this is a series of short payback production enhancement opportunities. On the bottom half of the slide, we're also making progress with a couple of non-operated assets, which are gonna provide vital gas supply to the country this winter. On Jade, two wells have been drilled and completed, recently brought into production, the Pierce Field, which is undergoing commissioning before gas blowdown of the reservoir, is also getting very close to achieving first production. Again, a couple of opportunities that we're participating in which are gonna provide much needed gas over the winter.

Turning to page 14, this is the final slide I'll cover before handing over to Iain, just to touch on where we are with the big development projects in Cambo and Rosebank. Both projects are currently undergoing detailed cost and schedule analysis, project economics with a view to supporting your final investment decisions in the near term. Of course, as we have more information to share on those, we certainly will. With that, I'm gonna hand over to Iain to cover the Q3 financial results in more detail.

Iain Lewis
CFO, Ithaca Energy

Thanks, Alan. On slide 16, we're summarizing here a number of key metrics on a per barrel basis, and we're looking at 2021 full year compared with year to date, September 2022, but really calling out the Q3 2022 performance in each of those areas. You can see production increased from last year, up 21% for the year to date September, but the highest production numbers in the quarters so far, logged in Q3 at 71,000 barrels. In fact, we disclosed today that we had reached over 90,000 during Q4 as production has continued to come on stream from new wells.

Strong production growth through the quarters, and we're seeing the delivery of the acquisition assets from Marubeni, Summit and Siccar coming through, as well as strong production for the base assets. Adding to that, we've had strong hydrocarbon pricing through Q3, again, $103 a barrel average realized, higher than the year-to-date average. A higher production in Q3, higher hydrocarbon pricing, very pleasing to see unit operating costs being held flat in Q3 against the year-to-date figure of about $19 per barrel. Clearly facing cost pressures in different ways, managing to see offsets through the business as we move forward. All that's driving strong EBITDAX per barrel.

You can see the increase from a $50 per barrel EBITDAX contribution in 2021, rising up now to $77 in year-to-date September and $81 in Q3. The next slide just gives a bit of summary of the EBITDAX, the slide 17. The EBITDAX progression and how it comes off of revenue from oil, gas, and condensate. You can see how then the hedge loss position that's come through in the quarter is taking some of that value away. That protection is critical to us to ensure robust revenue generation and it's working down through the lifting costs and other offsets.

We get to a $1.438 billion EBITDAX figure for the nine months to September. Very strong nine-month performance with increasing production and pricing through the nine-month period. Next slide just comes in a bit more detail on the quarter progression, really pleasing to see the progression through Q1, Q2, and Q3 on all levels from production, rising up from from 71 through to over 71 in Q3 2022. You can see the production value from pricing being delivered, rising from $93 a barrel in Q1 up to over 100 in Q3, with costs remaining relatively flat on a per barrel basis around the $19-$20 range. That's what's driving the EBITDAX.

Again, you see the benefit of the portfolio effect on this slide. On the bottom right there, we've called out the Q2 oil realized price was higher, GBP 116. That's dropped a bit in Q3. We've seen Q2 gas price of 133 pence per therm being replaced by a realized price of 270. All coming down, gas going up, net beneficial. You know, we've produced 35% gas weighting through 2022. During the ups and downs in the price cycles that we've seen even intra-year this year, we see the benefit of that combination and that split of oil and gas production.

The next slide then summarizes where we are on our financial framework and calls out the capital position at the end of September. You'll have seen, and of course, the story at the end of March was pre the big acquisitions of Siccar Point and then the Summit deal. You can see that the RBL was drawn upon in that period to generate the funds for the acquisition. We've already been able to pay down a significant amount of that during the three months to September. You can see that the Siccar bond, the bond that came as part of the acquisition of Siccar Point, $200 million.

That was all but paid, all but $8 million of that was paid off during the period to September. The remainder of that $8 million was then redeemed in October. We also have taken the RBL down by $100 million between June and September. We've just signed off the repayment of a further $50 million of the RBL just in the last day or so. Again, using the liquidity of the business to repay, to pay down the RBL, use the flexibility of the RBL to maintain our capital discipline. The next slide, just as a summary of our hedge position. It has been an evolving position through the year. The markets were difficult to land the right hedge positions.

There was capacity constraints with the banks during the summer. I think we mentioned that in the last call. We're starting to see that come up again. We're able to lay down more hedges. That's the current position. You can see that there's a rising floor. The weighted average floor is rising on in oil up to nearly $70 a barrel with collar upside up to 90 and above in oil. That's protecting us through 2023 and into 2024.

On, on gas, again, you see that the total weighted average of our put swaps and collar floors, rises from 131 in Q4 2022 up to, above 200, for the largest part of next year. Again, you can see the high collar positions, ceilings that you were able to lay down, with an average of 530 and 451 for Q1 and Q2 2023 respectively. Solid volumes being hedged. You can see the total volume at the bottom there. We're laying that, those down as we see, those prices in the market that fit with our policy, laying down some more just in fact today.

It's an ongoing process to protect the business and the cash flows going forward. On the final slide on this is slide 21. This is a summary of our near-term outlook. What you'll see is that in the net production outlook on the left-hand side is showing a projection for the remainder of the year of 77-80, and then for 2023 of 72,000-80,000 barrels a day. We're looking at that lift up in production that we've seen through 2022, establishing in 2020 Q4 some high levels of production, looking for that to be sustained over the next 12 months plus.

That's the same guidance that we've given through the IPO process and reconfirming that today. Similarly, on OpEx, confirming the OpEx numbers with guidance for Q4 and then guidance for 2023. Strong focus on cost discipline through 2023. There's a lot of inflation in the system, and we're looking to ensure that we're smart about how we manage that as we go through the budget and the sign-off and the plans for 2023. And then capital, which is reflected here as the producing asset-based capital guidance. $100 million-$120 million for Q4 and then $450 million-$550 million for 2023. That is the CapEx excluding the pre-FID projects.

As Alan's mentioned, we have a number of projects coming through towards FID. There are some contingent payments linked with those projects as well. And at sanction that would increase our CapEx position. As Alan's mentioned, we're looking at those projects again, and moving them through to the FID gates with the new EPL now being factored in as well, and the investment allowance linked with capital spend against the EPL, front and center of the thinking around those projects. I'll hand back to Alan for emissions.

Alan Bruce
CEO, Ithaca Energy

Yeah. Thanks, Iain. Okay, final slide, just a summary. I think some of you have seen this before, just in terms of our strategy from an emissions reduction perspective, I covered the short-term priorities earlier in the presentation, driving towards our 25% target by 2025 on a gross operated basis. Broadly, as we move beyond that, the focus is on transitioning the portfolio with the newer, more energy efficient assets, replacing mid to late life assets, which will help drive down our net emissions intensity as we move through the back end of this decade into the next, with a view to Net Zero by 2040 on a net equity basis. That concludes our prepared remarks. We're happy to now hand over and take any questions.

Operator

Thank you. We have a question on the line, and this is, what are the projected growth strategies, mergers, and acquisitions? Will a criteria be that the seller be predominantly explored, driven, or a combination of present own assets? Would a company who is facing higher tax rates and they're willing to participate in paying large amounts of monies with a lower special allowance to be viable consideration for that company's assets?

Alan Bruce
CEO, Ithaca Energy

Okay, great. Thank you for the question. I think what I would offer is if you look at what we've been able to do with the assets that we've acquired so far, the portfolio we've built up, we've demonstrated that we've been able to apply a number of levers to generate value. Whether that's been through portfolio synergies associated with combining different stage of life, different tax positions from various companies, or whether it's through the operational synergies associated with combining portfolios, running the operations more effectively. All of these levers are available to us and they'll be things that we'll continue to look at in order to continue to derive value. Our strategy is unchanged really. You know, we do think that the change in tax regime does and will present opportunities.

Change always presents opportunities. We continue to look for opportunity as we understand things a bit better and as it becomes clearer, how others are gonna react to these recent changes.

Operator

Thank you. We have another question on the line. By utilizing the RBL, a sustained growth business over the next two years would allow Ithaca Energy to grow exponentially, become a company similar in daily production to Harbour Energy. Do you see that the future for Ithaca Energy, thus combining that with the bringing Rosebank, Cambo, and Corona Ridge?

Iain Lewis
CFO, Ithaca Energy

Yep. Yeah, referencing the utilization of the RBL to grow, I think that's exactly what we've done in 2022. You can see that utilization of the RBL once paid down, in fact, during March 2022, then utilized to execute the Siccar Point and Summit acquisitions. That's what we have done. It's a model we like. We like the RBL and bond structure. It has enabled us to grow very substantially, and we expect that will be the case going forward as well. Rosebank and Cambo obviously are large projects that will require to be financed appropriately as well, and that whole evolution of the capital structure will continue with those projects.

Alan Bruce
CEO, Ithaca Energy

Okay, next question.

Operator

Thank you. We now have the next question. As RBL payback has been decreased, does that mean more monies were allocated towards CapEx? Seems the RBL payback is slower in this quarter. Please respond.

Iain Lewis
CFO, Ithaca Energy

Yep, sure. Each quarter is different obviously in terms of the cash burdens on the business. There were a number of different cash payments in the quarter. We paid tax this quarter and in fact paid EPL. This will continue to pay that through Q4 rather. There are tax payments. There are also some continued payments that came through from previous business development and CapEx.

Yes, the slightly slower repayment than perhaps in the quarter before, but still consistent cash generation repayment, and in fact in line with our guidance that we've given, that we expect it to be getting into the 0.5x to 0.6 x net, the EBITDAX range by the end of the year, which is still where we're expecting to be. We're at 0.6 at the moment as well.

Operator

Thank you. To be clear, the net CapEx guidance for 2023 does not include CapEx increases at Cambo slash Rosebank ahead of FID? Thanks.

Iain Lewis
CFO, Ithaca Energy

That's correct. The four projects coming to FID in the next 12 months or so are Cambo, Rosebank, Marigold, and Fotla. The CapEx earlier we've given before is that the next few years of CapEx could be in the $900 million-$1.3 billion range, which is the case with all those projects coming through FID. During the IPO process and the guidance that we gave, there was a need to be clear about the ongoing sustaining CapEx from the pre-FID projects, which is what we've been guiding on. Given the restricted period that we're in, we're not revising the way we do that just now. That guidance is consistent with what we gave through the process.

Operator

Thank you. Do you consider less oil hedging given the lower gearing?

Iain Lewis
CFO, Ithaca Energy

Our policy on hedging continues to be to hedge at 75% of the downside and to expose 50% of the upside. We continue to move towards that. As I mentioned in the overall commentary for the quarter, that is dependent partly upon the capacity and the pricing in the market. Put options, for example, are very useful, but depending on the state of the forward curve, they can be very expensive. We try to be thoughtful and value-oriented about how we do that. We're not at that position right now. We like the 50% upside exposure and the 75% downside protection.

As high as we can lock in that downside exposure, the better. The upside exposure, the better. We're using collars thoughtfully and put options for the right value.

Operator

Thank you. Could you talk to what extent does the change in the U.K. tax regime affect your projections for dividends?

Alan Bruce
CEO, Ithaca Energy

Yeah, sure. I can take that one. I would just reiterate the comment earlier around the maturity of the legislation itself, and of course, the devil's in the detail on these things in terms of carry forward, carry back, and lots of other specifics, which actually are quite important in terms of how they impact cash flow. We're working with Treasury to understand and to influence that. I think what we said in our release is that our commitment to the dividend policy as communicated remains. There's no change to that policy at this point in time. Okay.

Operator

Thank you.

Alan Bruce
CEO, Ithaca Energy

Was that the last question we have?

Operator

Yes, we have no further questions.

Alan Bruce
CEO, Ithaca Energy

Okay. Sure. Well, great. Let me just conclude then by thanking everyone for participating in the call. Of course, thanks for your interest in the company. We look forward to continuing to engage with you on an ongoing basis. Take care and happy holidays, everyone.

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