Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Ithaca Energy plc third quarter 2023 results investors and analysts webcast. My name is Bruno, and I'll be operating your call today. During the presentation, you can register to ask a question by pressing Star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I will now hand over to your host, Gilad Myerson. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our Q3 call. Gilad Myerson speaking over here. I was going to walk through the initial highlights slide and then hand over to Alan Bruce, our CEO, who will talk through the operational update. Iain will continue through the financial highlights. A few closing remarks, and then we'll open up for Q&A. So if you look onto slide number 2, you'll see a summary of the highlights. We're very pleased to say that we are continuing to produce and operate on track. The performance has been very good, and we are in line with full year 2023 guidance, as well as our reduction OpEx guidance. Year to date, September 2023, we produced 71,000 barrels a day, which once again is in line with the target.
We had a major milestone this quarter with the FID of Rosebank. We're very pleased with the approval, and we're very pleased with the response from the markets and the general public in the U.K. were very supportive of the Rosebank FID. We have been putting a lot of focus on cost control in this tough environment at the moment with significant inflation. I'm happy to say that we've managed to keep our costs relatively in line with budget and even beat the budget. Our year-to-date adjusted EBITDA is $1.4 billion, and our net cash from operating activities is $1 billion.
Once again, this is a very strong performance and cash generation, which helps us maintain a very strong balance sheet. We continue to deleverage our balance sheet, and our net debt is $677. You may know our bond is $625, so we really don't have a lot of RBL withdrawn, and our leverage position is 0.37x. Iain will walk through more details on our balance sheet, but it is very strong, and we have significant liquidity for and options.
We have also reaffirmed our dividend target for full year 2023 of $400 million, but we've already paid two tranches, $133 million and another $133 million, and we're looking forward to paying the final tranche of $134 million in the beginning of next year. So with that, I just wanted to once again confirm that we are looking to meet our production operating performance by the end of the year, and are very pleased with the overall performance of the last nine months. Alan, handing over to you.
Great. Thank you, Gilad. So starting on page 4, which is a HSE summary, we continue to focus on major accident hazard prevention. There were no serious injuries or Tier 1 or 2 process safety events in the quarter. We've had one Tier 1 process safety event year to date. We're continuing to work to drive down our emissions, and we're making good progress on engineering the potential electrification of our flagship Captain asset. We've moved into FEED phase on that project, which we expect to be completed in the first half of the year. So I'll provide an update on that on an ongoing basis, but it's an exciting project for us, which we're continuing to progress. On page five then, quick update on progress against our Buy, Build, and Boost strategy. We continue to strengthen the portfolio through acquisition.
We've acquired the remaining stakes in both Foinaven and Cambo, where our partners weren't supportive of development for strategic reasons. So we now have greater control of development timing, and we're working on engaging with potential farm and partners. That's actively ongoing, and we'll provide an update as things progress. In terms of organic growth and the builds pillar of our strategy, we're pleased to announce the final investment decision on Rosebank, as Gilad mentioned. I'll provide a bit more color on Rosebank on the next slide, and I'm also going to give you a quick update on Captain EOR-2 this morning. We continued with our targeted exploration and appraisal program, with successful drilling at K2 and Leveret appraisal ongoing. Finally, in terms of boosting asset performance, we're gearing up for starting a platform drilling campaign at Captain next year.
Moving to page six, which is a summary of the Rosebank project, and as a reminder, Rosebank is the largest undeveloped field in the U.K., with over 300 million barrels gross recoverable. It's expected to add around 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net to Ithaca at peak production and expects to come online in 2026-2027. Moving to page seven, you can see from the timeline that the project has already started. The FPSO is currently in Dubai, and modification works are ongoing. The next milestones will include subsea installation, which is gonna commence in 2024 and continue through 2025, and drilling is planned to start in 2025. As we noted in our release previously, all the major contracts are awarded for the project, which gives us some certainty around the capital commitment.
We expect our total net capital to be around $700 million, with somewhere in the region of $90 million-$110 million of that in 2023. Turning to page eight, which is summary on Captain. Pleased to report that we're making really good progress on the EOR-2 project, which is now around 80% complete. Execution of the key deliverables through the summer has all gone to plan, and we remain on schedule and on budget, with the first polymer injection expected in the first half of 2024. And we've completed drilling operations of the three wells at Area E, and we're moving on to the three wells at Area D now.
Our subsea construction campaign was completed successfully over the summer, and importantly, we completed a number of facilities upgrades during our 2023 turnaround, which are in support of EOR-2 project, both in terms of the final tie-ins and then also production from EOR once that comes through. So, again, really good progress there, and expect we'll see first injection in 2024, and it'll take some time for production to work us through to the production wells. Probably 2025, 2026, we'll see the full impact of production from that injection. And just one point to note on this slide, the middle picture is showing some of the upgrades that were completed in the turnaround, and this is some work on the flare system.
It's a good example of some of the smaller emissions reductions projects that we're doing, and we're doing lots of small things as well as some big projects to contribute to continue to reduce our carbon footprint. Moving on to page nine. This is a summary from a production perspective, and you can see, as I mentioned, the turnaround work drove our third quarter production of 6,170 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Pleased to report that we're now back to full production, and with the exception of Pierce, where the operator, Bluewater, is working on repairs to the mooring system. So that work is ongoing and it's weather-dependent. We expect to have that back in the first half of 2024.
We mentioned at our half-year results that a number of investments in new production were canceled in response to Energy Profits Levy, including the partner-operated EIH and Shaw C wells, as well as the Harrier infill well. So we are seeing some natural decline in terms of our fourth quarter volumes, and we anticipate exiting the year at around 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That will help us to meet our full year production guidance, which we reaffirmed in the 68,000-74,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day range. So in summary, we continue to develop our high-quality portfolio with investment in assets like Captain and Rosebank, which support strong continued cash flow for the company through the end of the decade. I'll now hand over to Iain, who's going to provide a financial update.
Thanks, Alan. We can turn to slide 11. A summary of the financial performance of the group over the last nine months, so 71,000 barrels of oil per day, and you see unit cost at $21 a barrel through that period. Now we're looking, as production's back to full capacity in Q4, and costs flat and reducing, as we've referenced in the guidance, to bring that cost per barrel down towards 20 during the closeout of the year. So that's the cost and production basis for delivery of EBITDAX of $1.37 billion and adjusted net income of $332 million. Again, a strong and consistent delivery showing progress quarter-over-quarter against our targets.
Net cash flow from operating activities of over $1 billion year to date. That includes in Q3 again a strong cash delivery with relatively low cash tax payments in the quarter. And that closes out with an adjusted net debt figure of $677 million, 0.37 times net debt to EBITDAX. Now, one of the key things we're doing in the business here is building optionality, optionality across our portfolio in terms of projects and investment opportunities so we can hydrate. And on the finance side is developing a liquidity base to enable us to be opportunistic, and we close the quarter with over $900 million available liquidity. That enables us to move forward and embrace opportunity.
So, to close out this slide, just to reaffirm the dividend target for the year, working very hard, delivering on our commitment since IPO, and continue to do that with the expectation that we'll close out the 2023 financials with a final dividend payment in 2024. Moving to slide 12, a bit more detail on the analysis of EBITDAX year to date, just calling out a few numbers here. Been particularly pleased with the hedging performance in the last nine months. You see that we now have added nearly $250 million of value through the hedge positions.
So as prices have been subject to volatility across the period, we've still delivered consistently above $90 a barrel of value from production, meaning that with a stable and controlled cost base, we are above $70 per barrel of adjusted EBITDAX through the nine months to September. So $1.4 billion of EBITDAX delivery. Now over to the next slide, slide 13.
This is a reflection of capital allocation framework, and the key point I want to pull out here is that the dividend commitments that we've made in terms of post-tax cash from operations going forward, 15%-30%, and the $400 million for 2023, are underpinned by performance from cash flow of the operations, but also the protection of the business and focusing very much on that protection leg, using the markets opportunistically to underpin the value of the company and underpin the dividend delivery. Now, in the quarter, and in fact, post-quarter end, we're working hard on that. We've been using the commodity price volatility to hedge at the upper ends of the oil and the gas prices, but also we've been laying down some hedge positions for foreign exchange.
As we see softened GBP in the last quarter, we used some of the low prices to lock in over $200 million of FX protection on the operating cost side. So all of this to deliver returns to our investors. Moving to slide 14, a bit more detail on our liquidity position and our debt structure. You can see that we are down at $677 million at the end of September. And that, that's a $65 million bond position, and then there's a net $52 million, which is actually the RBL and BP loan, which we drew down just at the end of Q3, so the cash was there offsetting the loan at that time.
That $100 million facility you can see in the second set of bars brings additional liquidity to the company and gives us the opportunity going forward. We closed the quarter as we move into the standard RBL redetermination period at the end of the year with strong liquidity and available capacity. Moving to slide 15, a bit of an update on our hedge book. We're very transparent on what we do here and our policy and approach. As you can see on the right-hand side of this graph, we have been hedging significantly in the past quarter. We are now over 10 million barrels of oil equivalent hedged.
We hedge at the high spot, so clearly prices have softened a little in the last couple of weeks in terms of the oil market, particularly. And so we aren't hedging right now, but we've done significant amounts in the past quarter. And you can see that position is helping us to build a high-graded hedge book that protects the company, but protects at high floor levels, which means we are delivering in high-pressure environments as well. Next slide gives a bit more detail on this. You'll see that the average oil floor that we're looking at, a combination of swaps and collars is above $70 a barrel.
See, the collar floor is $3.24 or $75, with collar ceilings up in the high 80s, and swaps in the 80s, through 2024. So, a strong hedge position on oil and on gas. We've been adding hedges through the period, particularly focusing on the summer. And you can see that the total weighted average through there is in the high 140s-150s for the next two quarters, and then the floors are above $120 and above $130 out through the end of 2024.
So just to move on to the closing slides and the guidance, very glad that that strong production delivery, and cost control, and hedge delivery means that we're able to reaffirm guidance across production, continued optimization of our CapEx portfolio, but within the guidance that's been previously given. We've been able to take the opportunity to reduce the OpEx guidance as we see costs coming in lower. We're looking at the $525-$575 range now for net operating costs. Looking as we close out the year to drive that down towards the lower end of that guidance. So with that, I'll hand over to Gilad Myerson for some closing remarks.
Thanks, Iain. So slide 19, we have the closing remarks. Want to call out once again these strong results year to date, Q3. This is incidentally a year since we listed. We listed November last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion and $0.9 billion of liquidity at the end of September, which puts us in a very strong position in terms of the balance sheet. Once again, I want to call out FID of Rosebank. One of the most interesting anecdotes around the Rosebank approval process was the Times ran a poll to look into the approval rating in the British public, and 78% of the public approved of the sanctioning.
So I think, we seem to have the public on board with the, with the decision to go ahead with Rosebank. We are continuing to review the M&A landscape. There's significant dislocation in oil and gas in general, and specifically, due to the EPL and the U.K. fiscal regime as well. There's many companies that are making decisions around exiting or around, changing the way they operate, and we continue to review the landscape. We're very disciplined in our approach to M&A, and that's why we haven't, made any major moves yet. But opportunities, exist, and we are looking closely. And then finally, I wanted to call out our capital allocation policy that we just walked through and, reaffirm the targeted dividend of $40 million for full year 2023.
With that, I'll open up to any questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. That's star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, star followed by two, and please do also remember to unmute your microphone when it's your turn to speak. Okay, we do have our first question. Comes from Sasikanth Chilukuru from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Good morning, everyone. I had two, please. The first one, I was wondering if you could give more color on how your discussions are progressing with potential farming partners at Cambo. Can we expect any announcement or potential announcement before the completion of the acquisition of this additional stake from Shell? Does that have to complete before you make any announcement of the farm down? The second question, if you could provide an update on the company's tax loss positions at the end of 3Q. I was just wondering if we should expect any-
... Great. Thanks for your question, Sassy. I'll take the first one on Cambo, and I'll pass over to Iain for the second question on tax. So, yeah, you alluded to it in your question there. So as you said, the first step for us is completing the license acquisition of Shell's stake. So that's working through with the regulator, and we will just complete the process there. And thereafter, opens the aperture for the farm out and marketing process, which we've started working on and will be actively ongoing into the new year. So, as I said, continuing to work through the process, and we'll provide updates, as and when we have them. Iain, question on tax?
Yeah, sure. So, on the balance sheet, the tax loss position is obviously in no way of the financial statements. So, the asset is at $1.8 billion. That's, as I represented, the cash value of the losses. So, substantial losses available going forward. And, we continue to expect our corporate tax cash position to be in the low single-digit percentages in terms of cash tax rate for corporate tax.
Great. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Mark Wilson, from Jefferies. Mark, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Okay. Thank you. Good morning, gents. My first question is, you mentioned the license timeline for Cambo, thirty-first of March twenty twenty-four. Could you just tell us what the relevance of that is, please?
Yeah, yeah. Sure, Mark. I'll take that one. So, just like all of the licenses in the North Sea, you know, through the development phase, there are timelines under the model clauses for certain work obligations. And then, of course, once you get past FID and into first production, then that's what holds the license. So, in the case of Cambo, the license milestone is around submitting the field development plan. We're in a really good position in terms of all the technical work is complete on Cambo, and we're working to pass through the commercial issues.
So in parallel with the license acquisition on the Shell's interest, we're also working with the regulators on a potential extension to that milestone around field development approval, just given the challenges with getting the partnership group aligned. So we'll work through that over the course of the next several months. I think the key point is, you know, it's an asset that we've invested a lot in as a company. We see really good potential, and we've got interest from others, and so, you know, it's a really strong project. We're just working to complete the process of the acquisition piece, like we discussed, and then and complete the farm exercise.
Great. Okay. So, yeah, look for a license extension as some news item. Second question would be, are there any expectations ahead of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement?
Yeah, I'll have a go at that one, Mark, as well, and see if any other guys want to jump in. But I think we don't have high expectations, so it's not described as an oil and gas budget, this one, so we don't have particularly high expectations today. But I mean, I think the broader point I would offer is that we have seen over the past several months, both in terms of the current government, their announcements on licensing. You know, Gilad touched on the general support for the industry and the understanding of the value that the industry adds to the company from a employment perspective, from a security of supply perspective, from an economic perspective. So we have seen that. I think that message is starting to get through and be understood.
So, pleased to see support from the current government, and then, as I say, be working very closely with the opposition parties as well, and really good engagement there. And again, a lot of focus on business, on stability, and on the jobs associated with the industry. Gilad, I don't know if you've got anything you want to add.
Yeah, I'd say, I think I've been pretty clear they're not gonna be mentioning, anything specific about oil and gas. We'd be surprised if they do. I would say that, there was an engagement at Number Ten, with the Secretary of State, just a couple of weeks ago, and that was really a call for action from the industry. We're being asked, as an industry, what needs to happen in order for us to increase production and deliver energy security to the United Kingdom. So I think that, we take it as a very strong message coming from Number Ten and the Secretary of State. I think overall, the fact that the U.K. economy is doing okay, and there is a...
They're considering reducing taxes, is a good message overall, and we hope that it will have some sort of impact on oil and gas in the near future.
Right. Okay. Thank you very much for that. Could I ask a few questions around Captain, please? Firstly, you mentioned that, you know, injection is gonna start the polymers next year. We should see some production impact the following year. Could you just remind us what sort of magnitude we should be looking for in terms of incremental production there? And secondly, great to hear the feed for Captain electrification is underway. Could you remind us who is doing that feed? Thank you.
Yeah, yeah, sure. I'll pick this up, Mark. So, yeah, as I mentioned, so touched on the Captain volume. I think standing back from it, you know, broadly, the EOR project, it in high-level terms is taken us from, you know, of the kind of order of 20,000 barrels a day to kind of into the high 30s as it hits peak production. I think, you know, and you'll see that flowing through our the NSTA exercise, and so that will be published in January, and consistent with the guide supervisor's company as well.
So you see that at an asset-by-asset level, and then you see sort of peak production for a couple of years there, and then it starts to decline thereafter. So as I say, kind of, keep an eye out. We're just working with the NSTA on that exercise just now, and keep an eye out for that as it flows through. And then on the electrification question, yeah, so the engineering is Worley. We have had good success with that. They've done a lot of the engineering on the EOR-2 project and the alliance we've had between Worley doing engineering and Petrofac, and then technical efficiency worked really well for us on EOR-2.
So, continuing with that through that, and we're also doing some work on a flare gas recovery project, which is a smaller but another important emissions reduction project that's being engineered in parallel. So there's some synergies we're capturing there as well.
Okay, appreciate the answers. I'll hand it over. Thank you.
Thanks, Mark.
Our next question comes from Werner Riding from Peel Hunt. Werner, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Morning, guys. Just a couple of numbers questions.
Hi, there.
Hi, there. Could you, Iain, perhaps please break down the $35 million reduction in OpEx, referenced FX cost control and deferrals? So I'm just wondering on the deferrals, which project contributed to the reduction, and could you kind of break down where that $35 million came from?
Yeah, sure. So, I mean, I think to go in broad terms, we've been running a cost optimization project last 5-6 months through the year. And really, this was with an eye to inflation coming through and a deep activity set that we're looking to get through. And really, it's been a cross-organizational approach to seek to fine-tune and optimize our cost base. That's involved changes across the piece. There's no one large OpEx change here. Operating cost control is something that requires kind of step-by-step and line-by-line analysis and control. And so it's really been by asset across the operating base, looking at our options on Captain, Alba, and Greater Stella Area, particularly.
So there have been some deferral of activity, and some cancellation, some load reduction in cost and some contracts. So it's been a range of cost control measures that have brought the results that we're seeing today.
Okay, thanks. And I mean, just reading between the lines, with some of the investment deferral, presumably, I would suspect production might dip a little bit next year. So on a unit operating cost basis, will the OpEx go up from $21 this year? Expect it to rise a little bit next year?
Yeah, sure. I think the, you're right, with a relatively flat and controlled cost base, I think that is a good thing. Obviously, the, the push through production over the next, few years, with clear trend of increasing production, in the, in the medium term, will mean that that cost per barrel over the medium term will be, steady, and that's our expectations. But we flagged that we expect, given the, the, the cancellation of some investment projects, that there'll be some short-term reduction in production next year. So I'd expect a, a modest increase, as we move through cost per barrel next year. But, but over the medium term, really no expectations of a significant change.
Yeah. Okay, got it. And just briefly on the Net Debt reduction, which was materially better than I'd expected, with your leverage ratio now comfortably lower than what I'd forecast for year-end. Are there any moving parts in Q4 that will increase leverage again, or do you see further improvements into year-end?
Yeah. No, there's no substantive change expected by the end of the year. Continue to be highly cash generative, you know, over $300 million of cash generation, operating cash in the quarter, with lower production. And of course, we expect production to be higher in Q4, and a relatively modest closeout cost profile for the final quarter. So, though we're in good shape in terms of our net debt and our liquidity position.
Great. Fantastic. Thanks a lot.
Our next question comes from Lydia Rainforth f rom Barclays. Lydia, your line is now open.
Thank you, and good morning, everybody. Two questions, please. The first one, and actually just to continue on the line of cost for the guys to go into next year, what. You talked about that cost optimization program. What is that you're in terms, I know you said there's no big buckets in there, but just in terms of the approach that you're looking to ensure that as we go into next year, that continues. And then secondly, if I can come back to Rosebank, and you talked about the 78% of people that supported the project in the Times poll, but that 22% of people that don't are going to be very active and typically, and sort of vocal around the opposition.
Can you just talk about when you're thinking about the development plan, if whether there's any contingency for delays that can cause, or if there's any way that the 2026-2027 first oil startup is impacted? Thanks.
Yeah, yeah, I'll jump in on the cost question. Maybe I'll just have a go on Rosebank, first off. So, yeah, and I think the key point really, it's really mature in terms of the way we manage risk in the industry. So we think about stakeholder risk, just as we think about all the other risks that we need to manage in terms of the engineering, the construction activities, the subsea activities and the drilling. So it's actively managed, as all the other risks on the project are.
And, you know, unfortunately, industry's got experience of these types of things in a few other areas, so we're leveraging and working, of course, very closely with Equinor, but leveraging the experience in other areas of how to appropriately manage the risk around potential delays associated with opposition to the project. So, as I say, I think it's being actively managed. Ian, do you want to jump in on the cost question?
Yeah, sure. Absolutely. So, I mean, what we've been focusing on, to give you a bit of a summary of the project, you know, we actually looked at cost optimization from a number of lenses in terms of the right activities, the right allocation of costs, and the right accountabilities across the business, and we had teams driving down those messages all the way through the organization. But overlaid upon that was the right atmosphere around cost in the business, and that's where really we're looking for enduring ownership and enduring messaging around spend control. And yeah, really pleased by the way that the business has stepped up to that.
So we see sustaining value in our cost delivery as being something about the atmosphere in the business and making sure that we spend the money like it's our own, rather than being allocated to us, like a business unit often considers their cost base. So I think long-term culture and cost atmosphere has been the focus for next year.
Brilliant. Thank you.
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. That's star one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Kim Fustier from HSBC. Kim, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just, firstly, a follow-up to a previous question on, on project deferrals. Could you talk about the natural decline that you're now seeing on, on your asset base in the absence of infill, drilling? And could you also quantify the production contribution from those projects that you've canceled or deferred as a result of the EPL? Secondly, I wondered if you could give any detail on the licenses that you were awarded in the recent 33rd oil and gas licensing round. Thank you.
Great. Thank you, Kim. I'll have a go at those two. So I think on production, you can see there, of course, as we look at 2023 and the first half, you know, we had some new production coming on as a result of 2022 activity. And then, so if you look at that, and of course, you can back into the Q4 volumes just by taking, say, you know, the middle of the guidance range for the full year, and that gets you close to the sort of 70,000 barrel, the exit rate I was mentioning earlier. So you can kind of see from the entry, exit rate what this natural decline without investment looks like, based on the 2023 volumes there.
I think it's a bit early for 2024 guidance. Of course, we're still working through that, so we'll come back early in the new year with some more specifics on production, and we've been working closely with NSTA. So you'll have a field-by-field breakdown as part of that exercise, which we are happy to elaborate on once that exercise is complete. In terms of the 33rd licensing round, so really our focus on exploration is around leveraging the assets that we have and maximizing value from those existing assets. So we applied for some licenses around the greater Britannia area, which we were successful with. Really pleased to be able to continue development in the Britannia area. And then beyond that, it's a really sort of targeted approach.
We've got an exploration opportunity near Captain that we're keen to progress. And then we've got some opportunities West of Shetland that we're still evaluating, but really targeted, focused on our existing asset base.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Christopher Wheaton from Stifel. Christopher, your line is now open. Please proceed.
Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you very much indeed for your time taking questions this morning. Two, if I may. Firstly, Iain, one for you on tax, if I may. You got GBP 160 million of tax, actually cash tax paid so far this year. Your current tax liability is GBP 280 million. I was surprised, as of end 3Q, I was surprised, the cash tax paid in, in 3Q was as high as that GBP 60 million, given that I'm assuming you're not paying much corporation tax at the moment because of historic losses and your, EPL number, net of deferred tax, is something like GBP 20 million or so.
Could you help just explain under the moving parts of tax and also, therefore, what the installment that would be paid in October? If you can talk about that, that would be very helpful. Thank you. That's my first question.
Sure. No problem, Chris. So, yeah, so, I want to try and unpack the mystery of tax. So the, essentially, in terms of, the, the payment, the cash payments in Q3, a little bit unusual because actually payments that were due in 1 October. 1 October was a Sunday, so they were paid in September, rather than October. So, so the there's GBP 52 million in the quarter was paid, on EPL. This is 2022 EPL now being cash finally settled in, in Q3 2023. So that's, that's the, the bulk of the, the GBP 64 million, cash tax that was paid in, in the, in the quarter. There's another GBP 12 million of, of, payments, and that's a, a kind of an advanced payment for 2023 corporate tax.
It's a little bit more similar kind of figure will be paid in October, in the beyond period, numbers. But that's us done for tax in the year in terms of tax cash. So again, those total corporate tax payments are around GBP 90 million for the full year, and we expect that to reduce next year, and therefore, we're in the low single-digit % in terms of our corporate tax position going forward. And as we've highlighted before, EPL cash tax payments for 2023, which plays into your current tax liability, that will be cash paid at next year. So the 2023 EPL cash paid in 2024.
Right. So there's no more cash payment, cash tax due in this year because that payment in three Q is actually the October installment brought forward a few days?
There is a small payment in October, but nothing material. Yeah.
Okay. Okay. No, that's right. That's really helpful. Thank you. And I guess then, as Rosebank CapEx ramps up next year, that's the... With the investment allowance, that is going to be that shield that reduces your tax payment, as you just talked about, for 2024 cash payments.
Yeah. So we're well shielded on the corporate tax side. On the EPL side, absolutely, it's capital investment that shields EPL, and we have a substantial program, even despite some of the cancellations that we've taken off.
Okay. No, that's, that's great. Thank you. More of a strategic one for Alan and, and Gilad then please, on Cambo. My view, as you know, is you ought to sanction Cambo. If you can try, you ought to sanction Cambo as soon as you can, even if you're doing it at 100% ownership. Is that actually possible, or, you know, would you take the financial - do you think the business is capable of taking the financial risk of developing Cambo at 100% equity, with the potential possibly to farm down at some point in the future?
or would you rather not take that risk and potentially then, given the potential change of government, and we don't know what the tax system is going to look like, as of the end of next year, I'm interested in what's that trade-off with actually decide the risk of losing the value of Cambo. I'm interested in your, you know, the conversations you've had with government have, have changed your thinking on this point.
Yeah. So happy to pick up on that. I think, can we sanction Cambo at 100%? Yes, we can, theoretically. Do we want to? No, we don't. I think it's a, the type of project or project that large need to be done with partners. So we are looking to find a partner or multiple partners to come in, and as Alan mentioned before, we're having multiple discussions. And then the question becomes, when do we bring in that partner? And as you point out, there's two ways of doing so. One is to first find a partner and then sanction, and the other is to sanction and then find a partner.
Currently, our base case is number one, we really want to find a partner first and then go ahead and sanction. The project is sanction ready, right? I mean, the Shell and Siccar Point were willing to sanction the project back in 2021. We were ready to sanction in 2022, and therefore, from a development standpoint, that is very mature and is ready for sanctioning. There is an unknown around the elections, of course, next year, who will be coming in. The mood music has changed significantly over the last couple of years.
We believe that any government that comes in, whether it's a Conservative government or Labour government, will be supportive of developing large-scale fields specifically for energy security in the UK, and therefore, we aren't that concerned about it, and ready to partner is key. The final question around the value of losing Cambo, I think that likelihood is very low. We have been investing pretty significantly in the field. We also recently, as you know, pulled out Shell, and we're in this process now, so we believe the authority, the regulator, will see these activities in a very promising way and will grant the license extension.
That's great. Thank you very much indeed. We'll keep our fingers crossed as to whether its political sanity can, in relation to energy policy in this country, be regained. Let's hope so. Thanks so much indeed for your time. Thank you.
Thanks, Chris.
Our next question comes from James Carmichael from Berenberg. James, your line is now open.
Hi. Morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple left for me. Just on the leverage, I guess obviously it's, you know, very low at the minute, and I was just wondering whether that means there's any sort of potential flexibility around the 15%-30% payout ratio, or is that firmly fixed where it is? Excuse me. And then on hedging, and you've obviously locked in pretty good pricing for the next two or three years. Is that quite front-end loaded? You know, should we expect you to keep adding to that? Maybe just some thoughts around the strategy there would be helpful. Thanks.
Sure. Yeah. So in terms of leverage, I mean, the impact on the capital allocation framework, what we're trying to do is to make sure that we consistently deliver our expectations of our investors, can be paid clearly to a consistent framework. And so that 50%-30% post-tax cash operation, I don't expect to change. It is a material and substantive dividend policy that I think is quite unique in this space. And we're all around trying to protect that and deliver that. The liquidity gives us optionality, which is, you know, we've said in our capital allocation framework that beyond sustaining CapEx, beyond the protection, cash flow and the returning of dividends, that we'll evolve the business.
What we hear from our investors is they want returns on their investment, and they want us to grow value. And so that liquidity is more likely to be used to grow value in different ways than one-off dividends beyond the standard dividend policy that we have. In terms of hedging, I mean, yeah, I think our policy, again, is there on slide 15 of the presentation. We would like to put more put options in, but the pricing of that at the moment, we don't like. Essentially, we take the position if we don't like the pricing, we don't move. We like the pricing in September and early October, until we put down significant oil hedge positions.
We don't like it just now, so we're not hedging. And we use that flexibility and those timelines to work through our policy. So I guess in terms of specific periods, you know, we can see the potential for softer pricing and gas in the summers. And so you can see from our hedge book on slide 16 of the presentation, that we have more volumes down in the summer of 2024 than we have in the winter. And in fact, we've put in some pricing for summer 2025 already. So yeah, I think we're thoughtful about it. We hedge at the peaks, and we're seeing the dividends in cash terms and protection terms coming through in the results.
Yeah. It's worth just calling out, adding to Ian, worth calling out the policy that you can see on slide 15. Really, the focus has been to make sure we have 75% downside protection, and we use a combination of swaps, collars, and puts that allow us to have 50% upside exposure as well. This has proven a very successful strategy for it over the last 3-4 years, and we plan to continue to implementing it.
Great, thanks. And maybe just one more, actually, if I can. I think this might have been touched on already. But just on the Cambo and, and I guess the Foinaven farm out processes as well. You mentioned in one of the previous answers there, there's maybe less concern around government policy, regardless of the election result next year. But is that still something that's in the mind of potential farming partners? You know, is it... Should we expect some sort of resolution before the election, or, or, is it like, likely to be sort of 2025?
Yeah, I'll have a go at that, James. I think the answer is it depends. I think all the companies have their own view. Some are more closely aligned with us and others have a different view. So, yeah, I think the answer is it depends, but as Gilad mentioned, you know, it's a good project. We're well-placed to take it forward, given everything we've invested in the project and really ready to move forward with the development and working really hard to get that recognized from others and start moving forward.
Great. Thanks. Very clear.
We currently have no further questions, so I would like to hand the call back to Gilad Myerson for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Yes, well, thank you very much for your questions. As always, we're very happy to engage, and if you have any further questions on operations, on finance, on development, projects, or overall about the business, more than happy to have follow-up discussions. And yeah, thank you, everyone, for your time.